A new market leader - Commerzbank AG · PDF fileAchim Kassow Member of the Board of...
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Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009 A new market leader Private Customers - Investors‘ Day 2009
Transcript of A new market leader - Commerzbank AG · PDF fileAchim Kassow Member of the Board of...
Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
A new market leaderPrivate Customers - Investors‘ Day 2009
1Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Private Customers’ business to contribute one quarter of the group’s 2012 profit target
Dresdner Bank acquisition makes Commerzbank Germany’s number one bank for affluent customers1
Positive operating profit in 2009 despite difficult markets2
New Commerzbank ideally positioned to capitalize on market recovery4
Target: €1bn profit before tax5
Integration of Dresdner Bank is well on track3
2Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Together we are on the right path... ...to becoming Germany's best bank for private customers
*) Source: FMDS 2008, TSN Infratest
The new Commerzbank is the first call for Germany’s affluent private customers
11 million customers with €240bn AUM No. 1 in Affluent Customers (market share: approx. 15%)*
1,200 branches, 41 Wealth Management locations
Germany's largest bank with the largest branch and advisor network
Four divisions: Private and Business Customers, Wealth Management, Credit, Direct Banking
Clear segmentation = premium tailored solutions for each target group
Customer service from relationship managers and specialists Top advisory service guaranteed
3Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Operating profitin € m
09/2009incl. exit units
2012eCommission income
Interest income
Risk provisioning
Operating expenses
09/2009excl. exit units
1,000200-300
0 --50200-300
300-400
151 110
828
Acquisition provides opportunity to nearly double profits by 2012
2008incl. exit units
Share of Dresdner Bank
570First implementation of
EU requirements / strategic realignment
~ +75%
4Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Operating profitin € m
09/2009incl. exit units
2012eCommission income
Interest income
Risk provisioning
Operating expenses
09/2009excl. exit units
151110
828
2008incl. exit units
Share of Dresdner Bank
Current situationI
4 value levers: headed for the targetIITargetIII
Current situation: Significant decline in profits due to financial crisis
570First implementation of
EU requirements / strategic realignment
5Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Portfolio margin development YTD September vs. previous year in % points * pro forma
95 89
Sep`08 Sep`09*
Δ Margin– 25 bps
42 40
Sep`08 Sep`09*
Δ Margin+ 4 bps
-6%
-5%
DepositsVolumein € bn
Housing financeVolumein € bn
169152
Sep`08 Sep`09
Δ Margin– 4 bps
*
-10%
Securities businessVolumein € bn
Successfully protecting margins through the crisis
6Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
-150 54 704033
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Income before provisionsin € m
Risk provisioningin € m
Op. Expensesin € m
Maintaining profitability in the harshest environment
9M 20081) 9M 20092)
-75%
Δ OE
Δ Risk
643
Δ CI
Δ NII
NII =Net interest income CI = commission incomeRisk = risk provisioning OE = operating expenses
2008* 2009
980 980 961 9501.022987 919
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008* 2009
73 174
2008* 2009
2,990 2,892
-5
1,173 1,073 1,078 1,0661,1001,282 1,251
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
3,707 3,217 ~
-36
-432
-101+100
151
1) pro forma 2) residual is “Other income”
* pro forma
7Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Closing: Jan 2010
Closing: Oct 2009
Closing: Nov 2009
Closing: Sep 2009
Commerzbank Switzerland
Dresdner Bank Switzerland
Privat Invest AG Salzburg
Custody Service
Luxembourg*
Closing: Q1 2010
Closing: Dec 2009
Closing: Nov 2009
Additionally: Eurohypo Retail/transfer from Private Clients to ABF
Kleinwort Benson GroupDresdner VPVBankhaus
Reuschel
Rapidimplementation ofEU requirements
* Custodian bank business only
Strategic realignment
Consequent execution of strategic realignment
8Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Employees in key functions
Head offices merged
Commerz Direktservice GmbH
Call Centers merged
First EU requirements met
Consequent Divestments
First joint branches
Branches merged from 2009
Yellow gradually integrated
Joint marketing activities
Stable governance at Head Office
Joint management structure
Tangible integration for customers
First joint products
Cultural interaction
Joint employee events
Merger on May 11, 2009
Legal merger
Allianz Bank independent since June
Allianz Banking spun off
Works Council agreement reached
Committee negotiations concluded
Customers have a strong voice
Joint customer advisory council
Integration well on track
9Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Operating profitin € m
09/2009incl. exit units
2012eCommission income
Interest income
Risk provisioning
Admin. expenses
09/2009excl. exit units
200-300
0 --50200-300
300-400
2008incl. exit units
Share of Dresdner Bank
Current situationI
4 value levers: headed for the targetIITargetIII
Four value levers to realize integration potential
1
23
4
First implementation of EU requirements /
strategic realignment
10Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Dual-brand strategy with Commerzbank and comdirect
11m private customers in Germany (market share in affluent business ~15%*)
Largest branch network with some 1,200 branches and over 10,000 sales employees
Leader in investment business with €240bn AUM
Leading wealth manager with over 40 locations
Leading direct bank in Germany with over 2m customers
Strong financial expertise through relationship approach with generalists and specialists
Optimized branch model with innovative branch technology and leaner processes
Modern, comprehensive quality management: i.e. formation of customer advisory council
Innovation: i.e.Pilot project “Anlageberatung PLUS” (expanded form of fee-based advisory service at comdirect)Customer-oriented pricing models through increased use of “all-in-fee”-models in Wealth Management
Achieving more together ... ...focusing on clients
* Source: FMDS 2008, TSN Infratest
The new Commerzbank is the market leader for affluent private customers
11Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
› Deepened advisory coverage in Wealth Management and Private Banking
› Wider range of specialist advisory services (securities, lending and pension specialist)
› Establishment of systematic quality management
Focus on quality
› Positive correlation between market environment and commission income
› By focusing on affluent customers, Commerzbank has a larger sensitivity to market developments than other banks
Securities commissions correlated to the market
1
Correlation between capital market & commission income
Parallel: We can reap the potential of our joint client base
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32007* 2008* 2009
Com
mission incom
e~2,700 ~2,550 ~1,600
Positioned to benefit from improving capital markets
Earnings perRetail customer**
95% 100%
+5%-P
Earnings per Private Banking
customer**
90%100%
+10%-P
** indexed
Customers with insurance**
~66%
100%
+34%-P
* pro forma
DA
X Index
12Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Effect
› Rising interest rates will likely result in increased margins
1
Volume
Portfolio margin + 20-30%
2
Income 2012e
Effect
• Further growth in new business and margins
2
Interest income will rise as interest rates increase
Deposits Housing finance
ACT.2008 2009e 2012e
EONIAMargin NB volume in € bn NB margin
ACT.2008 2009e 2012eillustrative illustrative
10-year yield bunds
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Volume
Portfolio margin + 10-15%
Income 2012e
13Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Development of real estate prices
Slight drop in real estate prices expected due toeconomic downturn
Default trends
Unemployment and bankruptcies likely to peak in 2010, therefore high level of layoffs & defaults expected for 2010/2011 (due to time lag of about 9-12 months)
Volume development
Increased new business volumes lead to total portfolio growth
* Net LLP YtD / EAD; annualized in 2009 ** excl. exit-units
3
INFLUENTIAL FACTORS
174 250 - 300
09/2009 2012e**
1.
2.
3.
LLP in € m *
~29 BPLLP-ratio* ~35 BP
LLP Unemployment rate
illustrative
Cost of risks stabilizing over medium term
EXPECTED EFFECTS
2008 FC 2009 2012e
14Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
4
* excl. exit units
Indirectadministrative expenses
Directadministrative expenses
in € m
Significant cost savings through synergies
2009e* 2012e before synergies
2012e after synergies
synergies 2013e et seqafter synergies
~ 3,600 ~ 3,850 ~ -500
~ 3,350 ~ -200
General cost increase
Synergy effects of integration
Synergy effects of integration
~ 300Back office / Services
~ 90Optimization ofbranch network
~ 110Administrativetasks / sales overheads
~ 90Back office / Services
~ 100Optimization ofbranch network
~ 10Administrativetasks / sales overheads
~ -250
15Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
› External branch design will conform to new brand
› Basic transactions available to customers of both banks in all branches
› Sales will have joint management structure and widely established target structure
Brand migration in Q2 2010
› Complete migration of Dresdner Bank data to the new Commerzbank
› Uniform products & advisory process
› Uniform loan processing in credit factory
› Start of branch consolidation & rollout of new infrastructure
Data migration in Q2 2011
High capacity utilization in Sales
2010e 2011e
› High strain on employee capacity during key migration periods
› Sales: conversion to new system and process environment
› Head Office: extensive concept creation, tests and implementation phases
INDICATIVEØ-full time utilization by quarter
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Integration to become tangible quickly: prioritizing brand migration
16Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Uniform, strong market perception and strong branch network:- over 1,200 branches- over 40 Wealth Management locations- leading direct bank
High financial expertise through relationship approach with generalists and specialists
Improved cost efficiency through platform synergies
Realization of internalstrengths
Significant increase in earnings power
New Commerzbank ideally positioned to capitalize on market recovery
Profiting from recovery
Capital markets are improving; economic recovery over the medium term
Front runner in the current consolidation of the banking market
Boosts from government economic programmes and increasing interest rates
17Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Measures
Revenues
Operating expenses
LLP
Capital employed
RoE
2010 2012
Operatingprofit
€1bn
CIR75%
OperatingRoE30%
I
II
III
A new market leader contributing 25% of Group‘s operating profit
Main P&L items Target 2012
vs. 2009 vs. 2010
Increase margins
Harness synergies
Manage risks
For more information, please contact Commerzbank´s IR team:
Jürgen Ackermann (Head of Investor Relations)P: +49 69 136 22338M: [email protected]
Christina Perić (Assistant)P: +49 69 136 22255 M: [email protected]
Michael H. Klein (Head of Equity IR)P: +49 69 136 24522M: [email protected]
Sandra BüschkenP: +49 69 136 23617M: [email protected]
Dr. Frank GrobeP: +49 69 263 50780M: [email protected]
Ute Heiserer-JäckelP: +49 69 136 41874M: [email protected]
Simone NuxollP: +49 69 136 45660M: [email protected]
Stefan PhilippiP: +49 69 136 45231M: [email protected]
Klaus-Dieter Schallmayer (Head of FR/FI)P: +49-69 263 57628M: [email protected]
Wennemar von BodelschwinghP: +49 69 136 43611M: [email protected]
Michael DesprezP: +49 69 263 54357M: [email protected]
Karsten SwobodaP: +49 69 136 22339M: [email protected]
Dirk Bartsch (Head of Strategic Research)P: +49 69 136 2 2799 M: [email protected]
Markus BärP: +49 69 136 43886 M: [email protected]
Ulf PlesmannP: +49 69 136 43888 M: [email protected]
Financial Reporting / Fixed IncomeEquity IR Strategic Research
19Achim Kassow Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt/Main November 25th, 2009
Disclaimerinvestor relations
This presentation has been prepared and issued by Commerzbank AG. This publication is intended for professional and institutional customers.Any information in this presentation is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Commerzbank Group with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgement at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. This presentation is for information purposes, it is not intended to be and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to acquire, or dispose of any of the securities or issues mentioned in this presentation.Commerzbank AG and/or its subsidiaries and/or affiliates (herein described as Commerzbank Group) may use the information in this presentation prior to its publication to its customers. Commerzbank Group or its employees may also own or build positions or trade in any such securities, issues, and derivatives thereon and may also sell them whenever considered appropriate. Commerzbank Group may also provide banking or other advisory services to interested parties.Commerzbank Group accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this presentation.
This publication contains forward-looking statements on Commerzbank’s business and earnings performance, which are based upon our current plans, estimates, forecasts and expectations. The statements entail risks and uncertainties, as there are a variety of factors which influence our business and to a great extent lie beyond our sphere of influence. Above all, these include the economic situation, the state of the financial markets worldwide and possible loan losses. Actual results and developments may, therefore, diverge considerably from our current assumptions, which, for this reason, are valid only at the time of publication. We undertake no obligation to revise our forward-looking statements in the light of either new information or unexpected events. Copies of this document are available upon request or can be downloaded from www.commerzbank.com/aktionaere/index.htm
Germany: Commerzbank AG is registered in the Commercial Register at the Amtsgericht Frankfurt (local court) under the number HRB 32000 and is subject to supervision by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungen (BaFin), Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt© Commerzbank 2009. All rights reserved.
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