A New Hybrid Travel Demand Model for EMPO: Context and Applications

APA Indiana Fall Planning Conference 201110/21/2011

Aaron Keegan

Bernardin, Lochmueller, and Associates6200 Vogel Rd Evansville, IN 47715

EMPO Hybrid Travel Demand ModelIn Final Stages

Started in Fall 2009

A New Regional Land Use Model

2012

Sustainable Evansville Area Coalition Plan

Began June 2011

CONTEXT OF MODEL DEVELOPMENT

TOO

LS• Travel demand model update

– New modes

– New structure

– New sensitivity

– Designed with Land Use Model Interaction in Mind

NEW EMPO TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL

– A Hybrid Tour-Based Model

– Sensitive to Land Use and Accessibility Variables in Multiple Steps

– Contains a Mode Choice Model (New to EMPO)

NEW EMPO TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL

•Disaggregate Steps = More Sensitivity and Realism

•Aggregate Steps = Faster Run Time, Shorter Development Time, Lower Cost

TRAVEL DEMAND MODELH

YBRI

D

HYB

RID

Network

TAZ

Flow Averaging

TrafficAssignment

Departure Time Choice

Stop SequenceChoice

Stop LocationChoice

Tour ModeChoice

Activity/TourGeneration

PopulationSynthesizer

Accessibility

Travel Times

LinkFlows

Trip ModeChoice

Variables Models

Disaggregate M

odelsA

ggregate Models

Vehicle AvailabilityChoice

No Mode Choice Step In:– 75% of Small MPO Models– 10% of Large MPO Models (Source: TRB SR288)

– Many small MPO’s must weigh small transit/walk shares vs. the expense of mode choice model development

MODE CHOICE

– An alternative hierarchy, well suited for small and medium urban areas, was applied in the EMPO model

– Alternative hierarchy: mode choice before destination choice

– No transit network development time/cost

– Transit and walk modes use proxy variables such as:

• % of TAZ near bus• % of sidewalks in TAZ• Activity Diversity of TAZ• Density of Intersection Approaches• Employment Accessibility

MODE CHOICE

MO

DES

• Zonal Mode Shares

• Also sensitive to:– Gas prices

– Income

– Vehicle ownership

• Currently TAZ level results only

MODE CHOICE RESULTS

TRA

NSI

T • System wide transit ridership forecasts

• Cannot forecast route level

• Transit ridership by zone

• Responds to: – Fares

– Route Coverage

– Headways

NEW MODES

WA

LK• Residents’ walking/biking by zone

• Responds to:– Sidewalk Coverage

– Network Density/Connectivity

– Mixture of Uses

NEW MODES

Multiple Travel Model Steps Are Sensitive to Land Use and Accessibility Variables

•Vehicle Availability

•Tour/Activity Generation

•Mode Choice

•Stop Location Choice

SENSITIVITY TO LAND USE

PLANNING APPLICATIONS

Project Evaluation (TIP, LRP, AQ)

Multi-Modal Performance Measures of Access-Time and Number of Opportunities (Jobs, Schools, Activities)

Time Sequence Model Runs with the Land Use Model

•Urban Form/Mode Choice Interaction• Accessibility/Real Estate Development Interaction

A Tool for The Sustainable Evansville Area Coalition (SEAC) Plan Development Process

• Land use data being collected (Lots Needed)

• Land use modeling will begin in 2012

• PECAS Model Framework: Production Exchange & Consumption Allocation System

– Model architecture currently being designed

LAND USE MODEL

LAN

DU

SE • Maximize realism (Parcel Based?)

• Minimize run time (Zone Based?)

• Offer sensitivity to:

– Zoning

– Utilities

– Property & other taxes

– Multimodal access to amenities/ destinations

PRELIMINARY GOALS

REG

ION

AL

GIS SERIES OF LAYERS

HOUSING • Parcel data• Assessor’s data• Crime statistics• School statisticsTRANSPORTATION• Bike routes• Sidewalks• TransitECONOMICS• InfoGroup data• IMPLAN I/O data• BrownfieldsENVIRONMENT• National land cover data• Arts, culture, recreation• Utilities

LAN

DU

SE • Travel Demand Model Can Run Independently

• Land Use Model Needs Accessibility Input from Travel Model

• Land Use Model Can Provide Future Year Land Use Scenario results back the to Travel Model

TRAVEL DEMAND AND LAND USE

A New Hybrid Travel Demand Model for EMPO: Context and Applications

APA Indiana Fall Planning Conference 201110/21/2011

Aaron Keegan

Bernardin, Lochmueller, and Associates6200 Vogel Rd Evansville, IN 47715