A Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal ... · • Spline . 4. Subtract the DEM from the...
Transcript of A Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal ... · • Spline . 4. Subtract the DEM from the...
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A Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal Landmarks along
Cape Hatteras National Seashore, NC
Presented by
Michael Flynn¹ and Dr. Tom Allen²
¹Coastal Resources Management PhD Student
²Professor of Geography
East Carolina University
Presented February 10th, 2016 Social Coast Forum | Charleston, SC
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Source: http://roadtripusa.net/Day_20061029.content
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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©Michael Flynn
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©Michael Flynn
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©Michael Flynn
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©Michael Flynn
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
1. Geomorphology 2. Shoreline Change 3. Coastal Slope 4. Relative Sea Level Rise 5. Significant Wave Height 6. Tidal Range
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work http://coast.noaa.gov/slr/
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work http://coast.noaa.gov/slr/
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work http://coast.noaa.gov/slr/
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work http://coast.noaa.gov/slr/
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Task Agreement No. P13AC01432
Piedmont – South Atlantic Cooperative Ecosystems Studies Unit Task Agreement
Between National Park Service
And East Carolina University
To Identify Cultural Resources Sites Affected by Sea Level Rise at
Cape Hatteras National Seashore
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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Scope of Work “East Carolina University will work closely with NPS staff and scientists to model local sea level rise and evaluate the vulnerability of 27 Historic Structures at Cape Hatteras National Seashore.”
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
© Steve Earley
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Project Objective
“ECU will identify the risk level of each structure and identify the estimate timelines for potential impact and alternative relocation of structures and districts.”
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Source: http://www.meylercapital.com/2015/03/alternatives-and-the-marketing-hour-glass/
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Cape Hatteras National Seashore
• There are 27 historic structures located within 5 areas of interest.
• Bodie Island Coast Guard and Light Station • Little Kinnakeet • Hatteras Light Station • Hatteras Weather Bureau • Ocracoke Light Station
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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Bodie Island Light and Coast Guard Station
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
©Michael Flynn
©Michael Flynn
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Little Kinnakeet
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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Cape Hatteras Light Station, Ranger Station, and CCC Cabins
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
© Scott Geib
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Cape Hatteras Light Station, Ranger Station, and CCC Cabins
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
© Michael Colligan
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Hatteras Weather Bureau
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
©Michael Flynn
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Ocracoke Light Station
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
©Sue Clark
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How is vulnerability being evaluated?
• Multi-Hazard Approach • Coastal Erosion
• Historical Shoreline Movement • Storm-Driven Geomorphic Change
• Storm Surge • Sea Level Rise
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
© Roger Bansemer
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Historical Shoreline Movement
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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Historical Shoreline Movement
• Shorelines • 1946 (NOAA T-sheets 1:10,000 HWL max σx = 10.8m)
• 1980 (NOAA T-sheets 1:10,000 HWL max σx = 5.1m)
• 1997 (USGS LiDAR 20m spacing MHW max σx = 1.5m)
• 1998 (NCDCM aerial photography HWL)
• 2004 (NCDCM aerial photography HWL)
• 2009 (NCDCM NAIP HWL 1:2,400 max σx = 4.0m)
• Method • USGS Digital Shoreline Analysis System
(DSAS) • Linear Regression Rate
• Results • Shoreline movement +/- 2 m/yr
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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Storm-Driven Geomorphic Change
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Storm-Driven Geomorphic Change
• Data Sets • USACE Lidar: Atlantic Coast Aug 16-24, 2009 • USGS Coastal Lidar: Post-Ida Nov 27, 29 Dec 1, 2009 • NGS Lidar: NC Post-Irene Aug 28-29, 2011 • USGS Lidar: Post-Sandy Nov 5-29, 2012
• Method • Mosaic Tiles • Minus (Spatial Analyst) • Clip to extent of land
• Storm surge was captured in data sets
• Results • Elevation change highly dependent upon storm track
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• 2009 USACE • Aug 16-24 • CHARTS • Grid Size: 2 • +/- 0.75m Hor • +/- 0.20m Ver
• 2009 USGS
• Nov 27,29 Dec 1 • EAARL • Grid Size: 2 • +/- 1.0m Hor • +/- 0.15m Ver
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• 2009 USGS • Nov 27,29 Dec 1 • EAARL • Grid Size: 2 • +/- 1.0m Hor • +/- 0.15m Ver
• 2011 NGS
• Aug 28-29 • Riegl Q680i-D • Grid Size: 2 • +/- 1.0m Hor • +/- 0.30m Ver
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• 2011 NGS • Aug 28-29 • Riegl Q680i-D • Grid Size: 2 • +/- 1.0m Hor • +/- 0.30m Ver
• 2012 USGS
• Nov 5-29 • Optech Gemini • Grid Size: 1 • +/- 0.194m Hor • +/- 0.147 –
0.075m Ver
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Storm Surge Vulnerability
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
© Jay Wickens
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Mapping Storm Surge Inundation
• Data Set • QL2 LidAR obtained from NC Emergency Management Spatial Data Download
• Northern OBX collected 1/27/14 – 3/21/14 • Southern OBX collected 1/6/14 – 3/21/14 • Leica ALS70 sensor • 2 pts/m² • 9.25 cm RMSEz • 18.13 cm Fundamental Vertical Accuracy
• Method • Downloaded 184 tiles and unzipped to folder
• NAD83 NC State Plane US FT • Create LAS Dataset (Data Management) • LAS Dataset to Raster
• Ran multiple iterations with various interpolation types and cell sizes • Computational time is consideration
rmp.nc.gov/sdd
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
• DEM • LAS Dataset to Raster
• Interpolation Type • Binning
• Average • Natural Neighbor
• Cell Size • 5 ft = 1.5 m
• Extract by Mask • Edited NHDArea.shp
• Project Raster • NAD83 State Plane NC FT to
NAD83 UTM Zone 18N M
Mapping Storm Surge Inundation
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
• SLOSH Display Program • Pamlico Sound (2012) ht3 • MOMs at high tide
• Category 1 • Category 2 • Category 3 • Category 4 • Category 5
Mapping Storm Surge Inundation
http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
• NOAA Coastal Inundation Surge Zone Mapping Summary 1. Maximum (worst case) water surface grids are extracted into a GIS format
for each storm category. 2. The DEM is subtracted from water elevation grid using GIS Spatial Analysis
tools. 3. The output grid is converted to a polygon to represent the extent of storm
surge inundation.
Mapping Storm Surge Inundation
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
• NOAA Coastal Inundation Surge Zone Summary of Steps 1. Reproject SLOSH output data
• WGS84 UTM 18N FT to NAD83 UTM 18N M 2. Convert SLOSH polygons to points
• Add column to convert SLOSH water level values in FT to M 3. Interpolate SLOSH data
• Spline 4. Subtract the DEM from the inundation surface
• Raster Calculator: DEM – SLOSH Water Level Grid 5. Create an inundation extent polygon
• Raster Calculator: calculation <= 0 • Convert Raster to Polygon
Mapping Storm Surge Inundation
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Mapping Storm Surge Inundation
SLOSH Polygon SLOSH Points Spline Interpolation Raster Calculation Inundation Polygon
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Mapping Storm Surge Inundation Extent
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Mapping Storm Surge Inundation Extent
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Mapping Storm Surge Inundation Extent
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Identifying Vulnerability of Coastal Landmarks • Create centroids of building
footprints • Extract values to points • Determine distance between FFE
and inundation depth using field calculator
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Landmark FFE (m) LAG (m) HAG (m) DEM (m) FFE - c1 (m) FFE - c2 (m) FEE -c3 (m) FFE - c4 (m) FFE - c5 (m) BI HS Coast Guard Station (Hilton) 2.59 1.17 1.86 1.68 0.90 -0.14 -0.73 -1.10 -1.48
BI HS Life Saving Station; Ranger Station 2.19 1.18 1.46 1.67 0.50 -0.54 -1.14 -1.51 -1.90
BI HS Bodie Island Lighthouse 1.58 0.64 0.85 0.78 -0.03 -1.03 -1.72 -2.16 -2.67
BI HS LH Store House 1.77 0.92 1.04 0.87 0.16 -0.84 -1.52 -1.96 -2.46
BI HS Keepers Quarters (Visitor Center) 2.00 0.81 1.26 0.94 0.39 -0.61 -1.30 -1.74 -2.25
HI HS Little Kinnakeet Main House 4.65 1.36 1.59 1.48 3.00 1.95 1.05 0.59 0.29
HI HS Little Kinnakeet Boathouse 1.92 0.88 1.19 1.50 0.27 -0.78 -1.68 -2.14 -2.44
HI HS Little Kinnakeet Kitchen 1.83 0.85 1.10 1.25 0.18 -0.88 -1.78 -2.24 -2.54
HI HS CCC Cabin 321 7.52 6.54 6.79 6.70 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52
HI HS CCC Cabin 322 9.00 8.01 8.27 8.16 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00
HI HS CCC Cabin 323 9.32 8.08 8.59 8.26 9.32 9.32 9.32 9.32 9.32
HI HS CCC Cabin 324 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
HI HS CAHA Lighthouse 5.05 2.85 3.15 3.09 5.05 5.05 1.92 1.59 1.23
HI HS CAHA Lighthouse Oilhouse 3.42 2.58 2.69 2.92 3.42 0.53 0.29 -0.03 -0.39
HI HS CAHA Principal Keepers Quarters 3.43 2.48 3.22 2.86 3.43 0.53 0.30 -0.02 -0.38
HI HS CAHA Double Keepers Quarters 3.68 2.49 3.16 3.15 3.68 0.77 0.54 0.23 -0.13
HI HS Coast Guard Station; Ranger Station 3.64 2.43 2.51 2.67 3.64 0.70 0.50 0.20 -0.14
HI HS Coast Guard Equipment Shed; Fire Cache 3.76 2.28 3.48 2.43 3.76 0.82 0.62 0.31 -0.02
HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau 2.61 0.60 0.82 0.90 1.10 0.37 -0.15 -0.38 -0.52
HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau Shed 1 1.54 0.62 0.81 0.74 0.03 -0.69 -1.21 -1.45 -1.59
HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau Flag House: Shed 2 1.34 0.48 0.60 0.80 -0.18 -0.90 -1.42 -1.66 -1.79
OI HS Ocracoke Lighthouse 1.76 0.94 1.02 1.39 1.76 -0.06 -0.39 -0.78 -1.48
OI HS Keepers Quarters 1.79 0.62 1.06 0.94 0.49 -0.03 -0.36 -0.76 -1.46
OI HS Tool House 1.86 0.90 1.13 1.03 0.57 0.05 -0.28 -0.68 -1.38
Identifying Vulnerability of Coastal Landmarks
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Identifying Vulnerability of Coastal Landmarks Landmark FFE (m) LAG (m) HAG (m) DEM (m) FFE - c1 (m) FFE - c2 (m) FEE -c3 (m) FFE - c4 (m) FFE - c5 (m) BI HS Coast Guard Station (Hilton) 2.59 1.17 1.86 1.68 0.90 -0.14 -0.73 -1.10 -1.48
BI HS Life Saving Station; Ranger Station 2.19 1.18 1.46 1.67 0.50 -0.54 -1.14 -1.51 -1.90
BI HS Bodie Island Lighthouse 1.58 0.64 0.85 0.78 -0.03 -1.03 -1.72 -2.16 -2.67
BI HS LH Store House 1.77 0.92 1.04 0.87 0.16 -0.84 -1.52 -1.96 -2.46
BI HS Keepers Quarters (Visitor Center) 2.00 0.81 1.26 0.94 0.39 -0.61 -1.30 -1.74 -2.25
HI HS Little Kinnakeet Main House 4.65 1.36 1.59 1.48 3.00 1.95 1.05 0.59 0.29
HI HS Little Kinnakeet Boathouse 1.92 0.88 1.19 1.50 0.27 -0.78 -1.68 -2.14 -2.44
HI HS Little Kinnakeet Kitchen 1.83 0.85 1.10 1.25 0.18 -0.88 -1.78 -2.24 -2.54
HI HS CCC Cabin 321 7.52 6.54 6.79 6.70 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52
HI HS CCC Cabin 322 9.00 8.01 8.27 8.16 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00
HI HS CCC Cabin 323 9.32 8.08 8.59 8.26 9.32 9.32 9.32 9.32 9.32
HI HS CCC Cabin 324 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
HI HS CAHA Lighthouse 5.05 2.85 3.15 3.09 5.05 5.05 1.92 1.59 1.23
HI HS CAHA Lighthouse Oilhouse 3.42 2.58 2.69 2.92 3.42 0.53 0.29 -0.03 -0.39
HI HS CAHA Principal Keepers Quarters 3.43 2.48 3.22 2.86 3.43 0.53 0.30 -0.02 -0.38
HI HS CAHA Double Keepers Quarters 3.68 2.49 3.16 3.15 3.68 0.77 0.54 0.23 -0.13
HI HS Coast Guard Station; Ranger Station 3.64 2.43 2.51 2.67 3.64 0.70 0.50 0.20 -0.14
HI HS Coast Guard Equipment Shed; Fire Cache 3.76 2.28 3.48 2.43 3.76 0.82 0.62 0.31 -0.02
HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau 2.61 0.60 0.82 0.90 1.10 0.37 -0.15 -0.38 -0.52
HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau Shed 1 1.54 0.62 0.81 0.74 0.03 -0.69 -1.21 -1.45 -1.59
HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau Flag House: Shed 2 1.34 0.48 0.60 0.80 -0.18 -0.90 -1.42 -1.66 -1.79
OI HS Ocracoke Lighthouse 1.76 0.94 1.02 1.39 1.76 -0.06 -0.39 -0.78 -1.48
OI HS Keepers Quarters 1.79 0.62 1.06 0.94 0.49 -0.03 -0.36 -0.76 -1.46
OI HS Tool House 1.86 0.90 1.13 1.03 0.57 0.05 -0.28 -0.68 -1.38
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
NPS SLR Scenario (cm)
Projection at Oregon Inlet NC Coastal Resources
Commission Science Panel (2009-2010)
Tide Gauge Projections
(NOAA 2014)
IPCC RCP 2.6 + VLM (Church et
al. 2013)
IPCC RCP 8.5 + VLM (Church et
al. 2013)
1 m by 2100 = 11.76 mm/yr
4.3" in 30 years = 3.56 mm/yr
6.3" in 30 years = 5.33 mm/yr
7.3" in 30 years = 6.10 mm/yr
Time to Achieve NPS SLR Scenario (years) 20 17 56 38 33 40 34 112 75 66 70 60 197 131 115
100 85 281 188 164 140 119 393 263 230
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Years in to the Future
Projection at Oregon Inlet NC Coastal Resources
Commission Science Panel (2009-2010)
Tide Gauge Projections
(NOAA 2014)
IPCC RCP 2.6 + VLM (Church et
al. 2013)
IPCC RCP 8.5 + VLM (Church et
al. 2013)
1 m by 2100 = 11.76 mm/yr
4.3" in 30 years = 3.56 mm/yr
6.3" in 30 years = 5.33 mm/yr
7.3" in 30 years = 6.10 mm/yr
Amount of SLR (cm) per scenario 5 6 2 3 3
10 12 4 5 6 15 18 5 8 9 20 24 7 11 12 25 29 9 13 15 30 35 11 16 18
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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© Roger Bansemer
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Future Work
• Multi-Hazard Approach • Coastal Erosion
• Inlet Opening Potential • Dune Hazard Analysis Tool (DHAT)
• Storm Surge • Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH)
• MEOWs vs MOMs • Sea Level Rise
• Scenarios of 20, 40, 70, 100, 140 cm ? • Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)
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E-mail questions/comments to [email protected]
Deliverable
• Final report and maps documenting the hazards that threaten the 27 historic structures forecasted 30 years in 5-year increments.
• Need to transform Geographic Information System into a Geographic Integration System
• A protocol that other parks can use to perform a similar assessment
© Roger Bansemer
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E-mail questions/comments to [email protected]
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Resources
• http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1401/ • http://ims.ncdenr.org/Website/ncshore/MetaData/2004_Shoreline_S
tudy.pdf • http://www.shoreline.noaa.gov/data/datasheets/t-sheets.html • http://shoreline.noaa.gov/intro/ • http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/erosionhazards/
E-mail questions/comments to [email protected]
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Principal Investigators
Dr. Tom Allen Department of Geography
East Carolina University
Dr. Burrell Montz Department of Geography
East Carolina University
Dr. JP Walsh Department of Geology East Carolina University
Dr. Tom Crawford Center for Sustainability
Saint Louis University
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Hurricane Irene six hours before landfall on Aug 27
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
Pea Island Wildlife Refuge Rodanthe
Hurricane Irene (2011)
U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
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NDBC Diamond Shoals Station 41025 Historical Data
Annual Mode
Annual Average
Year WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) WVHT (m) DPD (s) APD (s)
2003 215 6.9 8.4 1.5 7.7 5.3
2004 233 7.1 5.6 1.4 7.5 5.0
2005 18 7.0 8.6 1.5 8.0 5.3
2006 7 7.1 8.7 1.5 7.8 5.2
2007 13 7.6 9.4 1.5 7.5 5.1
2008 214 7.4 9.1 1.6 8.0 5.3
2009 226 7.3 8.9 1.6 7.9 5.3
2010 234 7.2 8.8 1.5 8.0 5.3
2011 237 5.1 5.1 1.5 7.5 5.1
Std. Dev 0.68 1.48 0.05 0.20 0.12
NDBC Diamond Shoals Station 41025 Historical Data
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0.0
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011W
ind
Spee
d (m
/s)
Win
d Di
rect
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(Deg
rees
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Annual Wind Analysis
WD (deg)
WSP (m/s)
D GST (m/s)
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Wav
e Pe
riod
(s)
Wav
e He
ight
(m)
Year
Annual Wave Analysis
WVHT (m)
APD (s)
DPD (s)
Linear (WVHT (m))
NDBC Diamond Shoals Station 41025 Historical Data
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• How do you account for seasonality? • What shorelines should be used for analysis?
• 2D vs 3D considerations • Limber et al. 2004
• What method should be used to project future shoreline position?
• End Point Rate (NCDCM) • Linear Regression Rate
• How do you account for nourishment? • How should estuarine shoreline movement
be evaluated? • Can you “smooth” the shoreline?
Research Questions
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
0.0
2.0
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d Sp
eed
(m/s
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rees
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Seasonal Wind Analysis
WD (deg)
WSP (m/s)
D GST (m/s)
0.0
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1.8
2.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Wav
e Pe
riod
(s)
Wav
e He
ight
(m)
Season
Seasonal Wave Analysis
WVHT (m)
APD (s)
DPD (s)
Linear (WVHT (m))
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work http://coastal.geology.ecu.edu/NCCOHAZ/maps/inlet_potential.html
Method • Simple cross-section measurements
of island volume above sea level (Perkins et al., 2007, Walsh et al., submitted)
• Plan to update using most recent LIDAR derived DEM
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• Inputs • National Wetlands
Inventory (NWI) • Digital Elevation
Model (DEM) • DEM derived slope • Dikes derived from
NWI • Tidal datum and SLR
data from NOS/ CO-OPS
Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
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Background > Objective > Study Area > Methodology > Completed Work > Future Work
• Inputs • National Wetlands
Inventory (NWI) • Digital Elevation
Model (DEM) • DEM derived slope • Dikes derived from
NWI • Tidal datum and SLR
data from NOS/ CO-OPS