A Look Back at 2011/ A Look Ahead at 2012 John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service...
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![Page 1: A Look Back at 2011/ A Look Ahead at 2012 John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Little Rock, Arkansas.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032800/56649d235503460f949f9b82/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A Look Back at 2011/A Look Ahead at 2012
John Lewis, Senior Forecaster
National Weather ServiceLittle Rock, Arkansas
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The Year So Far
2011 started with widespread drought conditions following a winter with below normal precipitation.
Most of Arkansas was hammered with heavy rain in April and May, with a hot and dry summer to follow.
Most recently, there was one deluge after another in November and early December.
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The Year So Far
It has been a year of extremes (feast or famine)!
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Breaking It Down2011 (Thru Oct)
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Breaking It DownJune – Oct, 2011
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Drought StatusOctober 25,
2011
An extreme to exceptional drought was noted in much of southwest Arkansas.
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Fronts (boundaries) moved into Arkansas from the northwest and stalled. Heavy rain focused along and north of the fronts.
Wet PatternNovember/Early December, 2011
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A Lot of of RainNov 12 – Dec 11, 2011
Rainfall
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A Lot of of RainNov 12 – Dec 11, 2011
Departure (+/-)
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Drought Status
An extreme to exceptional drought remained in the far southwest.
December 6, 2011
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Drought StatusDecember 6, 2011
An extreme to exceptional drought remained in the far southwest.
+11.76”
-18.53”
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Arctic Oscillation (AO)
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Arctic Oscillation (AO)
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Arctic Oscillation (AO)
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Arctic Oscillation (AO)
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Arctic Oscillation (AO)
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La Niña Conditions
Below normal sea surface temperatures (SST) were noted in the equatorial Pacific.
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La Niña Setup
West East
Stronger Westward Trade WindsStronger Westward Trade Winds
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La Niña Setup
West East
Warm Surface WaterWarm Surface Water
Cool Water/UpwellingCool Water/Upwelling
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La Niña Pattern
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La Niña Pattern
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Winter ForecastTemperature
Below NormalBelow Normal
Above NormalAbove Normal
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Winter ForecastPrecipitation
Below NormalBelow Normal
Above NormalAbove Normal
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Drought StatusDecember 6, 2011
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Drought OutlookThrough February, 2011
Arkansas should mostly stay out of the drought business, with improvement possible in the southwest.
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January – March PrecipitationTypical La Niña
There is usually a wet signal from Arkansas to the Ohio Valley by late winter/early spring.
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The Forecast
Significant precipitation this winter will be most likely in northern/eastern Arkansas, with lesser amounts expected in the southwest (where departures from normal are already extreme).
Be prepared for an active late winter/early spring, with severe storms and at or above normal precipitation.
Flooding could become a problem, especially in the White River basin.
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Drought FrequencyLittle Rock
Norm Precip = 50” <45” <40”1920s 6 3 1930s 3 11940s 3 21950s 4 11960s 3 21970s 2 0 1980s 1 11990s 5 12000s 4 2
Since the 1870s…
Three Consecutive Years < 45”
5 times (last 1998-2000)
Three Consecutive Years < 40”
Never
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On the Web
Visit the National Weather Service Little Rock website at this address…
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
or Google…
National Weather Service Little Rock
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The End
Thanks for coming!