A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis - scholar.princeton.edu EuroCrashCourse_slides_0.pdf · Changes...
Transcript of A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis - scholar.princeton.edu EuroCrashCourse_slides_0.pdf · Changes...
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A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis
Markus K. Brunnermeier & Ricardo Reis
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Overview
• Introduction of Euro • Decline in sovereign spreads• Capital inflows
1. To low TFP growth sectors• Housing, non-tradable sector, not export sector
2. Via banks – whole sale funding
• Crisis – “Macro-finance perspective”• Financial Instability: Amplification and multiple equilibria
• Liquidity spiral, deflationary spiral, (redenomination risk)
• ECB’s Target 2 – replacing private flows
• Game of chicken between ECB and 17 fiscal authorities ⇒ strategic delay (war of attrition)
• Diabolic loop between fiscal and banking risk
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0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 94 Jan 97 Jan 00 Jan 03 Jan 06 Jan 09
Germany
Spain
Source: Eurostat
Par %-Yield Par %-Yield
Sovereign debt yield (10 year)
3
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0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 94 Jan 97 Jan 00 Jan 03 Jan 06 Jan 09
Germany
Italy
France
Greece
Spain
Source: Eurostat
Par %-Yield Par %-Yield
Sovereign debt yield (10 year)
4
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Reasons
• Elimination of exchange rate and inflation risk
+
• Basel: zero risk weight
• ECB common haircut rule
• Sovereign debt should be risky• Maastricht Treaty: No bailout clause
No ECB bond purchases• Interest difference should act as disciplinary force
Inco
nsi
sten
cy
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-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Q1 1994 Q1 1997 Q1 2000 Q1 2003 Q1 2006 Q1 2009
€ Billion
Germany
Spain
Source: Eurostat
Accumulated Net Capital Inflows
6
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-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Q1 1994 Q1 1997 Q1 2000 Q1 2003 Q1 2006 Q1 2009
€ Billion
Germany
Italy
France
Greece
Spain
Source: Eurostat
Accumulated Net Capital Inflows
7
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Euro
-no
mic
s.c
om
Inflows into low TFP growth sectors
REAL GDP Labor Capital
3,6%
2,2%
3,1%
2,3%
0,6%
0,9%
1,9%
1,2%
1,5%
= + +
1 Para EU-15 los datos son del período 1995 – 2005 y sólo incluye países para los que el efecto multifactorial puede ser calculado: AUT, BEL, DNK, ESP, FIN, FRA,
GER, ITA, NLD & UK
FUENTE: EU KLEMS
TFP
-0,7%
0,4%
1,2%
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Funding via banks
United StatesEuro area
• Large fraction of funding• Large relative to GDP
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Cross-border assets & liabilities of Euro area banks
Growth rate!
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Traditional vs. modern banks
• Loans/mortgages are securitized and made “tradable”
• Whole sale funding• Interbank market (foreign)
• Money market funds (also from US)
A L
Loansmortgages
Government bonds
Traded assets
Deposits
Equity
A L
Loans
Government bonds
Tradable assets
Deposits
Equity
Whole sale funding
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Traditional vs. modern banks
• Bank run a la Diamond-Dybvig• … but inertia
also due to demand deposit insurance
• Whole sale funding liq. risklike in Brunnermeier-Pedersen• Short-term
No inertia• Collateralized
• Fire-sales of tradable assets
• Risk shifting towards depositors (insurance)
A L
Loansmortgages
Government bonds
Traded assets
Deposits
Equity
A L
Loans
Government bonds
Tradable assets
Deposits
Equity
Whole sale funding
Essentially senior
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Interbank Market
13
SpanishHomeowner
Builder
German firmThyssen-KruppBosch/Miele
Spanish BankSpanish
Saver
German Saver
German FinInst- MMF- Bank
Bank of TK,Bosch
Elev
ato
rD
ish
was
he
rLoan
LIBOR + x%increases
Paym
ent
for
Elev
ato
r/D
ish
was
he
r
wage
Deposits (short-term)
Deposits (short-term)
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others’average actions
𝑖’s bestresponse
Run-up in liquidity mismatch
shock
General mechanism
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others’average actions
𝑖’s bestresponse
Run-up in liquidity mismatch
shock
General mechanism
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others’average actions
𝑖’s bestresponse
Shock after the run-up
shock
shock
General mechanism
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ampli-fication
others’average actions
𝑖’s bestresponse
2nd, 3rd round effects: Amplification
shock
shock
General mechanism
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ampli-fication
others’average actions
𝑖’s bestresponse
multiplicity jump
2nd, 3rd round effects: AmplificationMultiplicity
shock
shock
General mechanism
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Spirals & capital stops
• Liquidity spiral and fire-sales• Loss spiral
• Margin/haircut/LTV spiral
• Deflationary spiral
• Redenomination spiral
• Along whole intermediation chain
• Including real sector (housing etc.)
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1. Shock Impairs Assets – 1st of 4 Steps
Government
Banks
Credit
Inside money
Equity
Outside money
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2. Shrink Balance Sheet: Sell off of Assets
21
Government
Banks
CreditIn-money
Equity
Outside money
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3. Liquidity Spiral: Sell off of Assets
22
Government
Banks
Credit In-money
Equity
Outside money
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4. Deflation Spiral: Value of Liabilities ↑
Government
Credit money
Banks
Outside money
Equity
See “I Theory of Money”
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Interbank Market
24
SpanishHomeowner
Builder
German firmThyssen-KruppBosch/Miele
Spanish BankSpanish
Saver
German Saver
German FinInst- MMF- Bank
Bank of TK,Bosch
Elev
ato
rD
ish
was
he
rLoan
LIBOR + x%increases
Paym
ent
for
Elev
ato
r/D
ish
was
he
r
wage
Deposits (short-term)
Inte
rban
k m
arke
tLe
nd
ing
(sh
ort
-ter
m)
Deposits (short-term)
Fire-sale ofElevator/dishwasher
Lossesaccumulate
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ECB assumes Tail Risk
25
SpanishHomeowner
Builder
German firmThyssen-KruppBosch/Miele
Spanish BankSpanish
Saver
German Saver
German FinInst- MMF- Bank
Bank of TK,Bosch
Elev
ato
rD
ish
was
he
rLoan
LIBOR + x%stabilized
Paym
ent
for
Elev
ato
r/D
ish
was
he
r
wage
Deposits (short-term)
Inte
rban
k m
arke
tLe
nd
ing
(sh
ort
-ter
m)
Deposits (short-term)
ECB
risky
Fire-sale ofElevator/dishwasher
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Germany
Spain
Target 2 claims & liabilities
GIIPS
GIIPSSBF
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Adding Convertibility Risk
27
SpanishHomeowner
Builder
German firmThyssen-KruppBosch/Miele
Spanish BankSpanish
Saver
German Saver
German FinInst- MMF- Bank
Bank of TK,Bosch
Elev
ato
rD
ish
was
he
rLoan
LIBOR + x%stabilized
Paym
ent
for
Elev
ato
r/D
ish
was
he
r
wage
Deposits (short-term)
Inte
rban
k m
arke
tLe
nd
ing
(sh
ort
-ter
m)
Deposits (short-term)
ECB
risky
Fire-sale ofElevator/dishwasher
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Liquidity vs. Solvency
• Pure Liquidity problem multiplicity• ECB intervention does not lead to losses
• Just ensures that we remain in good equilibrium
• Possible solvency problem amplification• Who absorbs the losses? ⇒ Game of chicken
• Undoes initial shock to avoid amplification• Initial shock size = loss to be absorbed
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ampli-fication
others’average actions
𝑖’s bestresponse
multiplicity jump
2nd, 3rd round effects: AmplificationMultiplicity
shock
shock
General mechanism
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Game of Chicken
• Game between central bank• Central bank: assume losses and inflate way out
• Fiscal authorities (17): assume losses and raise taxes
• Game among governments
• Answer: • clear rules to assign losses!
• No discretion (flexibility is bad)
30
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Diabolic Loop
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Changes in Sovereign & Banking CDS
32
Sources: Capital IQ, Markit Group Limited, Thomson Reuters Datastream and Bank calculations.
(a) The change is measured from 22 November 2010 to 22 November 2011.
(b) The other countries included, in addition to those labelled on the chart, are Austria, Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands.
(c) Banking sector CDS premia are asset-weighted.
(d) Five-year senior CDS premia
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Overview
• …
• Losses in the system
• Postponing the day of reckoning – increasing losses• What’s a timing game?
• Single player decision (when to live up to losses)
• Multiple player game
• Rules vs. Discretion (Commitment vs. Flexibility)• German vs. French economic traditions
• Federal vs. centralized system
33
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Losses are Realized by Nature –Inaction• Day of reckoning (loss realization) with prob. 𝜋 in 𝑡
• Expected losses forℒ = 𝜋𝐿 + 1 − 𝜋 𝜋𝐿(1 + 𝑔) + 1 − 𝜋 2𝜋𝐿 1 + 𝑔 2 +⋯
ℒ =𝜋𝐿
1 − 1 − 𝜋 (1 + 𝑔)> 𝐿
• Recall: sum of geometric raw
𝑎 + 𝑎𝑞 + 𝑎𝑞2 + 𝑎𝑞3 +⋯ =𝑎
1 − 𝑞
34
𝐿𝑡 𝐿𝑡(1 + 𝑔)𝐿𝑡 1 + 𝑔
2
𝜋𝜋
𝜋
…
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Single Decision Maker
• Can move realization (day of reckoning) forward• 𝜋 probability that losses are realized automatically• 𝑝𝑡 extra probability triggered by decision maker
• Total probability 𝜋 + 1 − 𝜋 𝑝𝑡 =:𝑃𝑡
• Expected losses• Same formula, if all 𝑝𝑡 = 𝑝,
simply replace 𝜋 with 𝑃
• Set 𝑝𝑡 = 1, assume losses right away, then ℒ = 𝐿
35
ℒ =𝑃
1 − 1 − 𝑃 (1 + 𝑔)𝐿 ≥ 𝐿
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Two Decision Makers – War of Attrition
• Two players decide when to exit - “Timing Game”
• James Dean “game of chicken” – notice the difference
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7hZ9jKrwvo
36
Payoff
Assume losses first at 𝑡 “chicken” – full loss 𝐿𝑡
Assume losses together at 𝑡 half loss 𝐿𝑡/2
Assume losses last no loss 0
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Two Decision Makers – War of Attrition
• Two players decide when to exit - “Timing Game”
• James Dean “game of chicken” – notice the difference
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7hZ9jKrwvo
• Timing Games: An overview
37
Losses shrink Losses grow
First mover advantage Preemption game
Last mover advantage War of attrition
English auctionDutch auctionDynamic all-pay auction:
Payoff
Assume losses first at 𝑡 “chicken” – full loss 𝐿𝑡
Assume losses together at 𝑡 half loss 𝐿𝑡/2
Assume losses last no loss 0
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Two Decision Makers – War of Attrition
• Optimal timing• If it doesn’t work for any time 𝑡 (including 𝑡 = ∞)
• Randomize• Assume losses in each period with a certain probability 𝑝𝑡
• Given that opponents uses probability 𝑞𝑡
38
Strategies Expected Losses Deviation/Best Response
Both assume loss at 𝑡 = 0 𝐿/2 𝐿/2 Wait one round more
Both assume loss at any 𝑡 Losses/2 grow* Wait one round more
Both wait forever ℒ/2 ℒ/2 Much more expensive!
* 𝜋𝐿/2 𝜏𝑡 1 − 𝜋 1 + 𝑔 𝜏
𝐿𝑡 𝐿𝑡(1 + 𝑔)𝐿𝑡 1 + 𝑔
2
𝑝𝑡𝑝𝑡+1
𝑝𝑡+2
…
Provided that• Natures does stop process• Opponent doesn’t assume loss
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Expected Losses at 𝑡
• ℒ𝑡 = 𝑝𝑡 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 +
+ 1 − 𝑝𝑡 {𝑞𝑡0 + (1 − 𝑞𝑡)[𝜋𝐿𝑡 1 + 𝑔 + 1 − 𝜋 ℒ𝑡+1]}• Linear in 𝑝𝑡
39
Expected future loss
Expected immediate loss
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Expected Losses at 𝑡
• ℒ𝑡 = 𝑝𝑡 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 +
+ 1 − 𝑝𝑡 {𝑞𝑡0 + (1 − 𝑞𝑡)[𝜋𝐿𝑡 1 + 𝑔 + 1 − 𝜋 ℒ𝑡+1]}• Linear in 𝑝𝑡
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Immediate loss vs. expected future losses Best Response
If 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 < … ⇔ 𝑞𝑡 > 𝑞𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 ⇒ Wait ⇔ 𝑝𝑡 = 0
If 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 = … ⇔ 𝑞𝑡 = 𝑞𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 ⇒ any prob. 𝑝𝑡 ∈ [0,1]
If 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 > … ⇔ 𝑞𝑡 < 𝑞𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 ⇒ Exit ⇔ 𝑝𝑡 = 1
Expected future loss
Expected immediate loss
0 1
1
𝑞𝑡
𝑝𝑡
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Expected Losses at 𝑡
• ℒ𝑡 = 𝑝𝑡 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 +
+ 1 − 𝑝𝑡 {𝑞𝑡0 + (1 − 𝑞𝑡)[𝜋𝐿𝑡 1 + 𝑔 + 1 − 𝜋 ℒ𝑡+1]}• Linear in 𝑝𝑡
• 𝑞𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 depends on future ℒ𝑡+1
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Immediate loss vs. expected future losses Best Response
If 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 < … ⇔ 𝑞𝑡 > 𝑞𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 ⇒ Wait ⇔ 𝑝𝑡 = 0
If 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 = … ⇔ 𝑞𝑡 = 𝑞𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 ⇒ any prob. 𝑝𝑡 ∈ [0,1]
If 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 > … ⇔ 𝑞𝑡 < 𝑞𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 ⇒ Exit ⇔ 𝑝𝑡 = 1
Expected future loss
Expected immediate loss
0 1
1
𝑞𝑡
𝑝𝑡
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Stationary setting … a “déjà vu world”
• ℒ𝑡 = 𝑝𝑡 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 +
+ 1 − 𝑝𝑡 {𝑞𝑡0 + (1 − 𝑞𝑡)[𝜋𝐿𝑡 1 + 𝑔 + 1 − 𝜋 ℒ𝑡+1]}
• ℒ𝑡+1 = (1 + 𝑔)ℒ𝑡• if 𝑝𝑡 = 𝑝 and 𝑞𝑡 = 𝑞 stay the same over time
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Stationary setting … a “déjà vu world”
• ℒ𝑡 = 𝑝𝑡 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞𝑡/2 +
+ 1 − 𝑝𝑡 {𝑞𝑡0 + (1 − 𝑞𝑡)[𝜋𝐿𝑡 1 + 𝑔 + 1 − 𝜋 ℒ𝑡+1]}
• ℒ𝑡+1 = (1 + 𝑔)ℒ𝑡• if 𝑝𝑡 = 𝑝 and 𝑞𝑡 = 𝑞 stay the same over time
• Yields
ℒ𝑡 =𝑝 1 − 𝑞/2 + 1 − 𝑝 1 − 𝑞 𝜋 1 + 𝑔
1 − (1 − 𝑝)(1 − 𝑞)(1 − 𝜋)(1 + 𝑔)𝐿𝑡 ≥ 𝐿𝑡
=𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑛𝑒𝑥𝑡 𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑
1−𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠
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Opponent Faces Same Problem
• Nash equilibrium – where best responses cross
• 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑞/2 = (1 − 𝑞)[𝜋𝐿𝑡 1 + 𝑔 + 1 − 𝜋 ℒ𝑡+1• 𝐿𝑡 1 − 𝑝/2 = (1 − 𝑝)[𝜋𝐿𝑡 1 + 𝑔 + 1 − 𝜋 ℒ𝑡+1
• 2 equations, 2 unknowns 𝑞, 𝑝
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0 1
1
𝑞𝑡
𝑝𝑡
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Commitment to be “crazy” – winning strategy
• Opponent commits to move “later” (no matter what the cost)
• 𝑞𝑡 = 0 ∀𝑡
• Best response• 𝑝1 = 1 assume losses right away
• Example• “burn ship” (Hernan Cortes when conquering Mexico)
• Stackelberg leader
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0 1
1
𝑞𝑡
𝑝𝑡
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Today’s Europe
• Game between central bank• Central bank: assume losses and inflate way out
• Fiscal authorities (17): assume losses and raise taxes
• Game among governments
• Answer: • clear rules to assign losses!
• No discretion (flexibility is bad)
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Overview
• …
• Losses in the system
• Internal governance
• Postponing the day of reckoning – increasing losses• What’s a timing game?
• Single player decision (when to live up to losses)
• Multiple player game
• Rules vs. Discretion (Commitment vs. Flexibility)• German vs. French economic traditions
• Federal vs. centralized system
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Rules vs. Discretion
• Extended model • Extra loss of 𝜅𝐿𝑡 for one party - other party still 𝐿𝑡• Ex-ante (when rule is set up) not clear which party
suffers extra loss
• Rule is coarse (independent of extra loss)
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Discretion
Delay in assuming losses
Rules
Can’t be fine-tuned enough
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Rules vs. Discretion
• Extended model: Extra loss 𝜅𝐿𝑡 for one party - other party still 𝐿𝑡
• Discretion:• After it is known, analysis is similar to before … except
• party with “extra loss” is more reluctant to assume loss (lower 𝑝).
• other party becomes more willing
• “extra loss” provides commitment and is a blessing
• Overall expected delay goes down due to extra loss • Aside: if 𝜅 → ∞ other party assumes loses right away
• Rule:
• If losses are split, then no delay but total loss: 1
2𝐿 +
1
21 + 𝜅 𝐿
• Tradeoff: for large enough 𝜅 discretion is better
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Federation vs. Centralized State
• Federation• Rule based system avoids many inefficient delays
• Centralized state• Discretion allows fine-tuned ex-post intervention
• Single centralized player does not delay
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Different Economic Traditions
• German Federation
Absolutism/Centralism
• Holy Roman Empire 1648• 962-1806 A.D.
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French Absolutism/Centralism
King Luis XIV, XV, XVI 1643-1715, 1715-1774, 1774-1792 A.D.
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Conclusion
• Introduction of Euro • Decline in sovereign spreads• Capital inflows
1. To low TFP growth sectors• Housing, non-tradable sector, not export sector
2. Via banks – whole sale funding
• Crisis – “Macro-finance perspective”• Financial Instability: Amplification and multiple equilibria
• Liquidity spiral, deflationary spiral, (redenomination risk)
• ECB’s Target 2 – replacing private flows
• Game of chicken between ECB and 17 fiscal authorities –⇒ strategic delay (war of attrition)
• Diabolic loop between fiscal and banking risk