A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
description
Transcript of A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
![Page 1: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Eric JonesSenior Hydrologist
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center 89th AMS Meeting
![Page 2: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• July 2007 - Began development and implementation• Used NWS OHD Research Distributed Hydrologic Model V2.0.
• SACSMA used for rainfall-runoff• No snow model used• Rating curve method of routing
• Initially used basins 3, expanded to 7• Calibrated before implemented• Verification done on initial three basins
• Black Creek at Brooklyn, MS (BKN)• Leaf River at Collins, MS (CLS)• Emory River at Oakdale, TN (OAK)
![Page 3: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
BKN
CLS
OAK
![Page 4: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
++=
Basin Model % bias Daily RMSE Corr Coef(CMSD)
CLS Distrib 0.25 46.38 0.724Lumped -14.10 41.84 0.748
BKN Distrib 9.41 18.94 0.810Lumped 14.97 15.29 0.791
OAK Distrib -1.28 44.06 0.889Lumped -15.88 41.74 0.895
![Page 5: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
• January 2008- October 2008• Simulated Lumped vs Distributed models
• Not adjusted to stage observations
• No runtime modifications included in lumped model• Statistics on forecasts +24 hours• Used quality controlled multi-sensor precipitation est.• Mean average PE used for distributed model
• Mostly computed PE used for lumped model
![Page 6: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
BKN
Distrib Lumped
CLS
Distrib Lumped
OAK
Distrib Lumped
![Page 7: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
BKN
Distrib Lumped
CLS
Distrib Lumped
OAK
Distrib Lumped
![Page 8: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
BKN
Dist Lump
CLS OAK
Dist Lump Dist Lump
![Page 9: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
One square = 4 km2
Distrib
LumpedObs
![Page 10: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Distrib
Lumped
Obs
One square = 4 km2
![Page 11: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Distrib
LumpedObs
One square = 4 km2
![Page 12: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Distrib
Lumped
Obs
![Page 13: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Distrib
Lumped
Obs
One square = 4 km2
![Page 14: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
One square = 4 km2
Distrib
Lumped
Obs
![Page 15: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
One square = 4 km2Distrib
Lumped
Obs
![Page 16: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Distrib
Lumped
Obs
![Page 17: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Distrib
Lumped
Obs
![Page 18: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Distrib
Lumped
Obs
![Page 19: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Unadjusted routing
Adjusted routing
Observed
Forecast
Flood stage
Observed
ForecastFlood stage
![Page 20: A Comparison of the Lumped versus Distributed Model at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051401/56814e99550346895dbc448c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
• Distributed model vs lumped model • Distributed model does better in some cases• Shape of distributed hydrograph appears to be better
• Suggestions for hydrologic forecasters • Should base forecasts using data from both models