Matthew Shupe Von Walden David Turner U. Colorado/NOAA-ESRL U. Idaho NOAA - NSSL
A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at...
-
Upload
daniella-gibson -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
0
Transcript of A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at...
![Page 1: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and
Global Scales at NOAA/ESRLStan BenjaminNOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
![Page 2: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Modeling and Assimilation Application / DevelopmentIn NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Carbon TrackerGHG obs/process research
GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2
PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclonesClimate diagnostics
Data assimilation (Whitaker)Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall)
Aerosol obs/process researchWRF-chem applications
Cloud physics (Feingold)PBL param
NWS NWPObs impact exps
Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRRFIM/NIM glob modelsiHYCOM ocean modelWRF-chem inline chemCumulus paramPBL paramLand-surface param
Apps
Development
![Page 3: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Modeling and Assimilation Application / DevelopmentIn NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Carbon TrackerGHG obs/process research
GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2
PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclonesClimate diagnosticsData assimilation (Whitaker)Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall)
Aerosol obs/process researchWRF-chem applications
Cloud physics (Feingold)PBL param
Aerosol processes
NWS NWPObs impact exps
Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRRFIM/NIM glob modelsiHYCOM ocean modelWRF-chem inline chemCumulus param (Grell)PBL paramLand-surface param
Apps
Development
Planetary boundary layer/land-sfc/air-ocean
Chemistry
Model numericsData assimilation
Cloud processes
![Page 4: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Data Assimilation Cycle
4
RAP
Observations
Hourly cycling model
HRRR
NOAA Next-Generation Model Development
RAPID REFRESH
HIGHRESOLUTIONRAPIDREFRESH
Radar data
![Page 5: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
NOAA Next-Generation Model Development
FIM
iHYCOM
atmosphere
oceaniHYCOM – Icosahedral Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model
- Matched grid design to FIM for coupled ocean- atmosphere prediction system
- Experimental testing at ESRL, Navy development
FIM – Flow-following finite volume Icosahedral Model
– “soccer-ball” grid design for uniform grid spacing
– Isentropic/sigma hybrid vertical coordinate
– New 14-day forecast twice daily– Real-time experimental at ESRL
![Page 6: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
24h forecasts vs. raobsRMS vector errorRR domain (N. America)
![Page 7: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
For the record – FIM vs. GFS using ECMWF as verification.http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/fimy/
![Page 8: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Added 2 Nov – N. HemisphereOver the full 10 days, FIM-Jan appears somewhat better in NH than prior FIM (prior PG formulation). Up to 0.01 improvement over GFS at 8-9 days (max 0.006 for FIM)
Oper GFS vs. real-time FIM
Oper GFS vs. revised FIM with Janjic pressure gradient force
![Page 9: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Added 2 Nov – S. HemisphereOver the full 10 days, FIM-Jan appears much better in NH than prior FIM (prior PG formulation). Up to 0.01 improvement over GFS at 9-10 days (no improvement at all in SH for FIM)
Oper GFS vs. real-time FIM
Oper GFS vs. revised FIM with Janjic pressure gradient force
![Page 10: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Full 2012 track errors – Atlantic + E.Pacific basins
![Page 11: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Ern
esto
He
len
eIs
aa
c
Kir
k
Les
lie
Mic
hae
l
Na
din
e
Raf
ael
San
dy
96h Atlantic track error by storm
![Page 12: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Ern
esto
Isa
ac
Les
lie
Mic
hae
l
Na
din
e
San
dy
• 2 US landfalling storms in Aug-Oct 2012 (Isaac, Sandy)• 41 of 54 forecasts at 120h from mid-Atlantic storms (Leslie/Michael/Nadine)
120h Atlantic track error by storm
![Page 13: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
FIM9
Isaac forecasts from HFIP
![Page 14: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
HFIPESRL-DA
Sandy – initial time 25 Oct 00z
![Page 15: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
HFIPESRL-DA
Sandy – initial time 26 Oct 00z
![Page 16: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
FIM9 – HFIP – Stream 1.5FIM9 – ESRL DA
Sandy track forecasts
![Page 17: A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062715/56649d9c5503460f94a85883/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Modeling and Assimilation Application / DevelopmentIn NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Carbon TrackerGHG obs/process research
GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2
PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclonesClimate diagnosticsData assimilation (Whitaker)Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall)
Aerosol obs/process researchWRF-chem applications
Cloud physics (Feingold)PBL param
Aerosol processes
NWS NWPObs impact exps
Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRRFIM/NIM glob modelsiHYCOM ocean modelWRF-chem inline chemCumulus param (Grell)PBL paramLand-surface param
Apps
Development
Planetary boundary layer/land-sfc/air-ocean
Chemistry
Model numericsData assimilation
Cloud processes