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www.ricepluss.com www.riceplusmagazine.blogspot.com

February 9,2016 Vol 6,Issue 2

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Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap -

Chicago Rough Rice Futures Tumble as

Traders Make Last Minute Changes to

Holdings ahead of Tomorrow's USDA S&D

Update

Feb 09, 2016

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 20 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) lower at

$10.920 per cwt (about $241 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower; Soybeans closed

about 0.6% lower at $8.6250 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.8% lower at $4.5850 per bushel,

and corn finished the day about 1% lower at $3.6225 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded sharply lower on Monday as global growth concerns weighed on investors.

Crude prices resumed their downward trajectory, with WTI falling 3%, or 95 cents, to $29.94 a

barrel. Last week, U.S. oil fell about 6%.Chinese markets are closed this week due to the Lunar

New Year holiday. With no major economic data due Monday, investors were looking ahead to

Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Concerns of a Fed

rate hike took center stage Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. economy

added 151,000 jobs in January — below expectations — but wages rose 0.5%.Overseas,

European equities closed lower, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index dropping 3.5%.

The German DAX also dipped below the 9,000 mark for the first time since October 2014. In

afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average traded 341 points lower, or 2.1%, at 15,859.

The S&P 500 fell 40 points, or 2.15%, to 1,839, as materials and financials led all 10 sectors

lower. The Nasdaq dropped 122 points, or 2.8%, to trade at 4,240. Gold is seen trading about

3.6% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 2.9% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about

0.3% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time.

Friday, there were 765 contracts traded, up from 552 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest

– the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday increased by 337 contracts to 13,196.

Bangladesh Considers Importing Hybrid

Rice Seeds from India

Feb 08, 2016

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Bangladesh's Agriculture Ministry may import seeds of hybrid rice varieties from India, the

Daily Star quoted the Director General of the Ministry‘s Seed Wing. The Ministry is reportedly

considering some popular rice varieties grown in India, and imported by Bangladeshi farmers

through border trade.

Speaking at the discussion ―Promoting climate adaptive technology through advocacy and

communication‖ in BRAC Center Inn, he noted that the Ministry's seed wing would formally

import Indian hybrid rice seeds if it finds producing those at home was not profitable. The

discussion was organised by Brac's ―Advocacy for Social Change‖ programme and Brac

University's ―Center for Climate Change and Environment Research.‖

The discussion also focused on the lags in the government‘s research on climate-resilient rice

varieties and the need for improving the same.

Some speakers noted that local varieties aimed at tackling climate change were not meeting

ground realties and reaching farmers on time. They have expressed concern that the current

salinity tolerant rice variety is capable of tolerating 8 ppt (parts per thousand) of salinity while

the salinity in coastal areas had reached 10 ppt and higher. They, therefore, highlighted the need

for the non-government sector and the government to work together to take new technologies to

the field level. They also urged the government to ensure just prices for farmers.

BRAC is a development organization based in Bangladesh. It aims to alleviate poverty by

empowering the local people.

Iran to Support Large-Scale Rice Production

in East African Region

Feb 08, 2016

Iran is planning to support large-scale rice, corn and wheat production in Kenya, Uganda and

Tanzania, according to Iran's television network Press TV.

More than 10 Iranian companies have expressed interest in growing and processing rice, corn

and wheat in East Africa, the Iranian Ambassador to Kenya was quoted. He noted that the

companies have expressed interest in establishing manufacturing plants in the region to help

boost its rice production and exports.

However, in return, Iran is expected to seek more processed goods imports from the East African

Community (EAC).

The EAC mainly exports unprocessed agricultural products like tea, coffee and meat to Iran, and

imports oil products, machinery and telecommunication equipment from Iran.

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Analysts say, the proposal by Iran is useful to the EAC countries in two ways. One, in terms of

increased food security, jobs, and higher farmers' incomes. Two, the trade deficit with the

Middle East nation can be lowered significantly.

―The lifting of sanctions on Iran will pave the way for EAC member states to forge closer ties

with Iran, but we need to export value-added products if we are to tilt the balance of trade in our

favour,‖ the Director-General of Customs and Trade at the EAC was quoted.

President of India Calls for More Research in

Climate-Resilient Rice Varieties

Feb 08, 2016

The President of India has highlighted the need for more research in developing climate-resilient

rice varieties, which can withstand extreme weather conditions such as droughts, floods and

cyclones, according to local sources.

Speaking at the 54th convocation of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), he noted

that nearly 80% of India's cultivable land is still exposed to severe climatic conditions despite the

advancements made so far. He noted that the total food grain production declined about 5% to

around 253 million tons in the crop year 2014-15 from a record 265 million tons in crop year

2013-14 due to a 12% deficit in rainfall.

―Nature has not been kind to us this year as well. A deficient monsoon followed by a further dry

spell is likely to affect agricultural production for the second year in a row. This is an area of

grave concern,‖ he was quoted. ―Institutes like IARI must leverage opportunities from frontier

sciences such as bio-technology, synthetic biology, nano-technology, computational biology,

sensor technology and geo-spatial technology to develop climate-resilient technology solutions,‖

he added.

Talking about the degrading soil health and dwindling fresh water sources, he said: ―It is

heartening to note that several water-wise technologies like precision irrigation, Pusa Hydrogel,

zero tillage wheat system, direct seeded rice system, and short duration crop varieties have been

developed by IARI. Scientists here must continue with their efforts to develop water-efficient

and drought-tolerant varieties.‖

He also highlighted the need for developing bio-fortified rice varieties, which can help address

the problem of under-nourishment in most of the children in the country.

The President also noted that the government should support these institutes with sufficient funds

and technical assistance.He complimented the IARI specifically for developing early maturing

and high yielding Pusa basmati varieties, which have increased the country‘s basmati export

potential as well as helped in raising the incomes of farmers.

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Vietnam Rice Exports Increase Sharply in

January 2016

Feb 08, 2016

Vietnam exported about 416,770 million tons of rice in January, 2016, up about 89% from about

220,388 tons rice exported in January 2015, and down about 45% from about 760,993 tons rice

exported in December 2015, according to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). The .

The average export price so far in January stands at about $407.5 per ton, down about 9% per ton

from a year ago.

In 2015, Vietnam exported about up about 6.568 million tons, up about 4% from about 6.33

million tons of rice exported in 2014.

Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower Most of Their

Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes

Unchanged

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Feb 08, 2016

Pakistan rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice, 25% broken rice and 100% broken

rice by about $15 per ton, $5 per ton and $10 per ton to around $330-$340 per ton, $305-$315

per ton and $280-$290 per ton, respectively, today. Thailand and Vietnam rice sellers are out

today on account of a holiday. India rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged

today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $360

- $370 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per

ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $340- $350 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$325 - $335 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $305 -

$315 per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $55 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice

last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $5 per ton

premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $320 - $330 per ton. India's 100%

broken rice is shown at around $260 - $270 per ton, about $20 per ton discount to Pakistan

broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.

Oryza January 2016 Rice Market Review

Feb 09, 2016

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The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,

ended the month at about $386 per ton, down about $2 per ton from a month ago and down about

$36 per ton from a year ago.

The World Bank forecasts the global rice production in 2015-16 to decline marginally to 470

million tons from 478 million tons last year due to weakening output prospects in Asia,

particularly in India, the Philippines, and Thailand, the world‘s top rice exporter. It forecasts

average rice prices to remain below $400 per ton in 2016 and up to 2020. The bank forecasts

rice prices to average $370 per ton in 2016 and $374 per ton in 2017. It also forecasts rice prices

to average $379 per ton, $383 per ton and $387 per ton in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Meanwhile, the FAO forecasts 2015-16 global rice production at around 491.8 million tons,

slightly down from an estimated 494.3 million tons in 2014-15, and slightly up from its last

month's forecast of around 491.4 million tons. The FAO forecasts improved production outlook

in China, Vietnam and the U.S., with lower production prospects in Japan and Nepal. The agency

estimates 2016 global rice trade at around 45.4 million tons, up about 1.4% from an estimated

44.8 million tons last year, and slightly up from its last month's forecast of around 45 million

tons. The FAO expects greater purchases by China and Indonesia in 2016.

Despite a soft demand, rice export quotes in Thailand tended to firm, reflecting mainly the

thinning of supplies in private hands and expectations of much smaller than usual crop arrivals in

the coming months. Prices in Pakistan were also up in January, on improved expectations for

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sales to China, the Near East and Africa. By contrast export prices lowered in India, influenced

by a weaker Rupee. Rice prices were also down in Viet Nam, ahead of the imminent harvest of

the winter/spring crop. In the Americas, prices moved down in the U.S. on limited buying

interest, the rice prices also down in Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil, due to a depreciation of

local currencies.

Thailand

Thailand 5% broken rice ended the month of January quoted at about $370 per ton, up about $20

per ton from a month ago and down about $35 per ton from a year ago.

The President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) has projected the country's total

rice exports at about 9 million tons in 2016, down about 8% from about 9.79 million tons in

2015. The Honorary President of the TREA is estimating the 2016 white rice exports to decline

about 7% to about 4.9 million tons from about 5.26 million tons in 2015. He noted that exports

of Thai Hom Mali fragrant rice are expected to fall to about 1.8 million tons this in 2016 from

about 1.99 million tons in 2015 because demand for premium rice in the world market is

expected to fall given the global economic slowdown. He has estimated Thai parboiled rice

exports will fall to 2.2 million tons this year from 2.32 million last year because the economies

of African countries remained in poor condition and are buying cheaper parboiled rice from

India. Thai 2015 rice exports declined about 10.7% to about 9.8 million tons from about 10.97

million tons in 2014. The TREA reported that Thailand lost its top rice exporter status to India,

which exported about 10.23 million tons in 2015.

Separately, Thailand has signed four agreements to sell about 300,000 tons of rice worth 4.3

million baht (about $121 million) to Iran, Reuters quoted the Commerce Minister.

The government of Thailand is planning to reduce the rice production to match the local

consumption and exports, with the goal of reducing carryover. The official noted that the annual

local and export demand is currently at about 25 million tons (basis paddy), while the average

annual production stands at about 31-32 million tons. Meanwhile, Thai rice farmers, millers,

exporters, and traders have reportedly supported the government's decision to slash 2016 paddy

rice production. Separately, the government of Thailand has ruled out any kind of compensation

or state assistance to farmers defying its order on banning the second/off-season rice crop

planting this year. In November 2015, the government announced a ban on second crop planting

due to extending drought conditions and critical water levels in reservoirs.

TREA forecasts that rice prices may increase by about 10% in the first quarter of 2016 as

drought cuts output significantly. Thai 2016 milled rice output from the main crop (harvested

between April and September) is estimated to decline by about 4-5 million tons. The government

of Thailand has hiked the paddy rice output goal for the 2016-17 crop year to about 27.17 million

tons from the earlier target of 25 million tons based on higher demand estimates.

Separately, Thailand will sell 570,000 tons of stockpiled rice on February 16 and 17 for human

consumption and industrial use, the Commerce Permanent Secretary said. She noted that: "the

size of the first auction of ‗good rice‘ will be about 204,000 tons while the second lot will be

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about 360,000 tons." Warehouses storing the rice will be open for inspection from February 2 to

10, 2016, said the official.

Vietnam

Vietnam 5% broken rice ended the month of January shown at about $355 per ton, down about

$10 per ton from a month ago and down about $5 per ton from a year ago.

Vietnam exported about 314,706 million tons of rice in January 1-28, 2016, up about 43% from

about 220,388 tons rice exported in January 2015, and about half of about 760,993 tons of rice

exported in December 2015, according to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). In

2015, Vietnam exported about 6.568 million tons, up about 4% from about 6.33 million tons of

rice exported in 2014. The VFA also is expecting better prospects for Vietnam's rice exports in

2016 compared to the same period last year with contracts of about 1.3 million tons carried

forward from last year as well as renewed demand from large and regular markets. Meanwhile,

The Chairman of the VFA expressed concern that the recent decision by the government of

Thailand to auction 570,000 tons of stockpiled rice would lead to a decline in world rice prices

and may negatively impact Vietnam rice exports. USDA Post forecasts Vietnam's 2016 rice

exports at about 6 million tons, down about 8% from an estimated 6.5 million tons last year and

down from USDA's official estimate of about 7.1 million tons due to an expected low carry-over

stocks from MY 2014-15 (January-December 2015).

The government of Vietnam has decided to cut tariffs on a number of goods, including rice,

cooked poultry & birds, eggs and, sugarcane/refined sucrose, imported from Laos as per the

Circular 216/2015/TT-BTC by the Ministry of Finance, according to local sources. The tariffs

will be reduced by 50% under the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA). Laos does not

officially export rice to Vietnam. However, several tons of paddy and rice are exported

unofficially to Vietnam through borders.

The USDA estimates Vietnam's 2015-16 (January-December 2016) paddy rice production to

reach about 45.056 million tons (about 28.38 million tons, basis milled), down from an estimated

45.175 million tons (about 28.46 million tons) last year and down from the USDA's official

estimate of about 45.12 million tons (about 28.43 million tons, basis milled) due to the larger

planted and harvested area of winter crop from low level flooding in the Mekong River Delta

(MRD). Separately, the government of Vietnam is planning to cut the paddy rice acreage by

about 100,000 hectares in 2016 to grow other grains used as animal feed, local sources quoted

the Agriculture Minister.

Cambodia, Myanmar & Laos

Cambodia 5% broken rice ended the month of January shown at about $430 per ton, unchanged

from a month ago, and down about $15 per ton from a year ago. Cambodia has exported about

538,396 tons of milled rice in 2015 (January - December), up about 39% from about 387,061

tons exported during the same period last year, according to the data from the Agriculture

Ministry. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister of Cambodia has expressed optimism that the country

will succeed in supplying rice to the Philippines this year by competing with Thailand and

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Vietnam, according to Khmer Times. Three Chinese firms have reportedly proposed to invest

about $400 million in a project to develop rice warehousing facilities in Cambodia. The project is

reportedly part of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) drafted by the Cambodian

government seeking a loan of about $300 million to build about 10 warehouses, capable of

storing about 1.2 million tons of paddy/rice, in the country, according to the Project Leader and

Senior Advisor to the Supreme National Economic Council. Separately, an official from the

Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) said that the government of Cambodia should invest about

$550 million the rice production and supply chain to achieve the one million ton export target.

The official noted that the CRF requires at least 2.5 million tons of paddy, including both

fragrant and white types, to process one million tons of milled rice for exports. He also noted that

advanced storage facilities are also required to achieve the goal.

Myanmar 5% broken rice ended the month of January indicated at about $420 per ton, up about

$5 per ton from a month and a year ago. Myanmar exported about 830,000 tons of rice in the

first ten months of FY 2015-16 (April 2015 - January 2016), down about 15% from about

980,000 exported during the same period last year. In terms of earnings, Myanmar's rice exports

declined about 17% to about $308 million during the ten-month period from about $370 million

last year. Myanmar exported about 1.8 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15 and aimed to export

over 2 million tons this fiscal year. Separately, Myanmar rice sector is not in a position to take

advantage of increasing overseas demand due to certain production barriers such as inadequate

capital, a failure to apply technology, weaknesses in transportation capacity and the limited

availability of crop strains, the Secretary-General of the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) said.

The government of Laos is aiming to produce 4.2 million tons of paddy rice in 2016 to ensure

adequate supply for domestic consumption and exports, according to the Ministry of Agriculture

and Forestry. The Ministry noted that it plans to allocate 2.1 million tons for domestic

consumption, one million tons for exports, and 640,000 tons for processing, 400,000 tons for

reserves, and 60,000 tons for seeding purposes. Separately, Laos rice farmers are seeking to

explore new export markets after the country officially received order to export about 8,000 tons

of rice to China.

Philippines

The USDA Post forecasts the Philippines MY 2015-16 (May 2015 - April 2016) rice imports at

about 2.1 million tons, up about 17% from about 1.8 million tons in MY 2014-15 and USDA's

official estimates of about 1.8 million tons. The increase in imports forecast is based on the

government's earlier estimations that 1.3 million tons of milled rice needs to be imported in 2016

to cover losses from Typhoon Koppu and to strengthen stocks as the El Nino dry spell is

expected to intensify through mid-2016. Meanwhile, the government of the Philippines has

decided to defer the plan to import 400,000 tons of rice for delivery in the second quarter of 2016

as there is enough supply of the grain. The official earlier noted that the committee may approve

imports of another 400,000 tons apart from the already approved 500,000 tons for the first

quarter of 2016. Separately, the Philippines Agriculture Minister noted that quantitative

restrictions (QRs) on rice imports are currently needed to protect local farmers from cheap

imports, but a further extension of QRs is likely to prove costly for the government.

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The USDA forecasts the Philippines MY 2015-16 paddy rice production at about 18.298 million

tons, down from about 18.913 million tons last year and up from USDA's official estimates of

about 17.857 million tons. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) estimates the Philippines

2015 paddy rice production at about 18.15 million tons, down about 4.31% from about 18.97

million tons in 2014. Based on the standing crop situation, the PSA estimates the Philippines

2016 first half paddy rice production at about 8.2 million tons from about 2.02 million hectares.

The agency estimates the January - March 2016 paddy production at about 4.15 million tons,

down about 4.98% from about 4.37 million tons in 2015. Meanwhile, the Philippines

Agriculture Secretary is estimating the 2016 paddy rice production to fall below the 2015 level

of about 18.15 million tons due to the prevailing drought conditions.

Separately, the Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) has set the 2016 paddy rice

production target at about 19 million tons, but may not be adequate to fulfil the country‘s rice

self-sufficiency goal. The DA has also introduced a new drought resistant and high yielding rice

variety to cope with the effects of El Nino induced dry conditions, according to a press release on

its website. Meanwhile, the Economic Planning Secretary of the Philippines said that the

government must focus on achieving rice self-sufficiency as the El Nino impact on rice

production has been lesser than expected.

China

The government of China has announced 2016 minimum purchase prices for rice, Reuters quoted

the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

The Chinese government has reportedly lowered the price for early season indica rice to about

2,660 yuan (about $404) per ton from about 2,700 yuan (about $410) per ton in 2015. It retained

the purchase prices of mid to late season rice and japonica rice at 2015 levels of about 2,760

yuan (about $420) per ton and 3,100 yuan (about $471) per ton respectively.

China has started importing from Laos and the first shipment of rice imports from the south-east

Asian nation have passed through inspection and quarantine procedures at South China's

Shenzhen port, according to Xinhua Net.

Separately, China's National Rice Research Institute (NRRI) is planning to promote exports of

hybrid rice seeds in Southeast Asia, Africa and South America over the next five years as part of

the 13th five year plan (2016-2020).

South Korea is planning to begin rice exports to China in February 2016 after both the

governments agreed on a set of quarantine requirements after the South Korea-China summit

talks in October last year.

India

India 5% broken rice ended the month of January quoted at about $360 per ton, unchanged from

a month ago, and down about $40 per ton from a year ago. Separately, India average wholesale

rice prices which declined in October 2015 with the beginning of the kharif (June - December)

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rice harvest, have been increasing since November 2015 on concerns of lower output due to El

Nino-induced below-average monsoon rains in many rice growing areas. Average monthly

wholesale rice prices in India increased to about Rs.2,866.27 per quintal (about $427 per ton ) in

January 2016, up about 8% from about Rs.2,645,06 per quintal (about $399 per ton) in

December 2015, and up about 1% from their year-ago levels of about Rs.2,836 per quintal (about

$448 per ton).

Experts are expecting India's rice exports in FY 2015-16 (April - March) to decline significantly

due to reduced demand from major importers such as Iran and Nigeria. Separately, the

government of India is likely to strike a one million ton rice export deal worth Rs.3, 000 crore

(about $443 million) with Indonesia shortly, according to local sources.

Based on the current pace of rice procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the

government agencies, analysts are forecasting that India‘s government rice procurement in KMS

2015-16 (October 2015 - September 2016) may exceed last year's level of 32 million tons,

according to the Press Trust of India. The government targets to procure 30 million tons of rice

this year. Meanwhile, the Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain

procurement and distribution has procured about 24.47 million tons of rice so far in KMS 2015-

16 (October 2015 - September 2016), up about 24% from about 19.66 million tons last year.

India 2015-16 winter/rabi rice (November - May) planting area has reached about 2.241 million

hectares as of January 28, 2016, down about 7% from about 2.408 million hectares planted

during the same period in 2014-15, according to a press release by the Ministry of

Agriculture. Separately, Water scarcity in India's largest rice growing state Punjab is threatening

the continuation of rice production. According latest data, Punjab has contributed a record 9.35

million tons of rice to the Central Pool in KMS 2015-16 (October - September) breaking the

9.275 million tons in KMS 2009-10.

India-based Intellectual Property Appellate Board (IPAB) has passed the order allowing the

Geographical Indications (GI) tag to Indian basmati rice. The move is said to provide a legal

protection to India's basmati rice.

Pakistan

Pakistan 5% broken rice ended the month of January shown at about $345 per ton, up about $10

per ton from a month ago and down about $15 per ton from a year ago.

The USDA Post forecasts Pakistan's MY 2015-16 milled rice production at about 6.9 million

tons, unchanged from USDA's official estimates. The Post reports that Pakistan exported about

4.1 million tons in MY 2014-15 (November 2014-October 2015), up from USDA's official

estimates of about 4 million tons. Meanwhile, Pakistan and Indonesia have finalized a one-

million ton rice agreement under which Pakistan will export one million tons of rice worth $400

million over the next four years.

The Chairman of the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) said that Pakistan basmati

rice exports are severely impacted by cheaper rival supplies from India. ―India‘s competitive rice

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prices have helped the country in grabbing a bigger share of the global market and increasing

exports,‖ he said. Pakistan's basmati rice varieties are currently quoted at $950 per ton to $1,100

per ton, while Indian basmati rice varieties are quoted at about $720 per ton to $850 per ton.

Meanwhile he has called for appropriate currency transfer arrangements between the two

countries to facilitate exports to Iran.

Pakistan exported about 2.05 million tons of rice (including 189,084 tons of basmati and 1.87

tons of non-basmati) in the first six months of FY 2015-16 (July - December), up about 15%

from about 1.53 million tons (251,496 tons of basmati and 1.1 million tons of non-basmati)

exported during the same period in FY 2014-15, according to provisional data from the Pakistan

Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

Sri Lanka has granted duty free access to 102 products from Pakistan, including basmati rice,

oranges and engineering goods, as part of a free trade agreement (FTA).

Bangladesh

The USDA Post forecasts Bangladesh's MY 2015-16 (May - April) milled rice production at

about 34.6 million tons, slightly up from last year's 34.5 million tons, and unchanged from

USDA's official estimates. It is forecasting this year's imports at about 600,000 tons, unchanged

from USDA's official estimates but nearly half of last year's imports of about 1.22 million tons.

The USDA Post reports that the Food Ministry recently revised procurement specifications for

paddy rice, milled rice, and wheat. Under the new specifications, the only registered farmers can

sell grain to the government on a first-come first-serve basis; moreover, by 2016 all rice millers

must use rubber rollers and polishers.

Separately, the government of Bangladesh is planning to build five steel silos with total capacity

to store about 345,000 tons of rice. The government of Bangladesh is also planning to sell about

1.5 million tons of rice and wheat at reduced prices through open market sales program as the

harvest time for 2015-16 Boro rice crop (January - May) nears.

Indonesia

The USDA Post forecasts Indonesia to import about 1.15 million tons in MY 2015-16 (January -

December 2016), down 15% from about 1.35 million tons in MY 2014-15 and down from

USDA's official estimates of about 1.6 million tons. Bulog needs to maintain year-end stocks of

about 2.5 million tons in 2015, but the stocks stood at about 1.7 million tons at the end of

September. The Post estimates Indonesia's rice production at about 36.35 million tons (basis,

milled) in MY 2015-16, down from about 35.56 million tons last year and up from USDA's

official estimates of 36.3 million tons.

The government of Indonesia needs about 1.2 million tons of rice to maintain adequate stocks by

the end of March 2016, according to the National Development Planning Minister. Meanwhile,

the government of Indonesia is planning to lower 2016 paddy rice output target to 75.13 million

tons from last year's 76.23 million tons, according to the Director General of Food Crops at

Agriculture Ministry.

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Separately, the Indonesian Agriculture Minister has ruled out rice imports in 2016 citing the

Agriculture Ministry's reports that the current national stock of about 1.2 million tons was

sufficient. He noted that another 3.5 million tons of rice would be added to stocks following the

February 2016 harvest.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's state logistics agency Bulog has urged the government to fix its rice

purchase price (Harga pokok penjualan, HPP) in accordance with the prevailing market prices.

Some senior government officials and academic experts have expressed concern that data on

Indonesia's rice production and harvests is being inflated to prove that food-sufficiency targets

are being met, according to Reuters. They say most of the time, agriculture officials manipulate

data and show surplus production to present a rosy picture to the government and attract farm

subsidies. They noted that if the numbers were correct, there would be no need for the

government to import urgently 1.5 million tons of rice from Vietnam and Thailand. However, the

Agriculture Ministry denied any manipulation saying it compiles rice data from several regional

and central government agencies.

Central & South America

Brazil 5% broken rice ended the month of January at about $460 per ton, up about $10 per ton

from a month ago and down about $80 per ton from a year ago. The FAO forecasts Brazil's

2015 paddy rice production at about 12.44 million tons, up about 3% from about 12.122 million

tons in 2014 due to an increase in acreage as well as yields. FAO's projections are in contrast to

the country's National Grains Supply Company (Conab) projections. In its January 2016

forecasts for rice production, Conab forecasts the country's 2015-16 paddy rice production at

about 11.921 million tons (about 8 million tons, basis milled), down about 6% from an estimated

12.436 million tons (about 8.6 million tons, basis milled) in 2014-15 due to a likely reduction in

acreage. Conab's production forecast is lower than its December 2015 forecast of about 11.921

million tons (about 8.2 million tons). Meanwhile, the USDA Post forecasts Brazil MY 2014-15

(April 2015 - March 2016) milled rice production to decline to 8.4 million tons, down from

USDA's official estimates of about 8.465 million tons due to heavy rains and flooding in the

main rice growing region of Rio Grande do Sul. However, the production is estimated to be

above 8.3 million tons in MY 2013-14. Brazil exported about 1.32 tons of rice in 2015 (January

– December), up about 6% from about 1.24 million tons exported in 2014, according to data

released by the Rice Institute of Rio Grande do Sul (IRGA). Brazil rice stocks stood at about

115,126 tons in December 2015, down about 3% from about 118,250 tons in November 2015

and down about 67% from about 351,860 tons in December 2014, according to the Conab.

Guyana exported about 537,334 tons of rice in 2015, up about 7.21% from about 501,208 tons

in 2014; local sources quoted the Head of the Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB). The

official noted that Guyana's 2015 paddy rice production increased about 8% to about 1.06

million tons (about 687,784 tons, basis milled) from about 977,289 tons (about 635,238 tons,

basis milled) in 2014. The agency is striving to help farmers boost production through

developing stronger and resilient varieties of rice, according to the official. Separately, the

government of Guyana has advised farmers to delay rice planting activities for the 2016 crop due

to the beginning of the El Niño-induced dry season. The government of Guyana is also planning

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

15

to collaborate with a European rice company as part of its efforts to boost rice exports to the

European countries.

The FAO forecasts Dominican Republic's 2015 paddy rice production at about 900,000 tons,

almost unchanged at last year's level of about 899,000 tons mainly due to the good harvest from

the 2014-15 main season crop (November 2014 - August 2015).

The Cuban government is likely to impose price controls on rice to address the concerns of low

production and supplies. Cuban rice production is said to be impacted by the on-going drought

conditions induced by the El Niño. Cuba imports about 50% of its annual rice consumption

needs.

The USDA Post forecasts Mexico's MY 2015-16 paddy rice production at about 195,000 tons,

down from about 261,000 tons in MY 2014-15 and down from USDA's official estimates of

about 197,000 tons due to an expected decline in paddy rice area.

Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina ended the month of January at about

$470 per ton, down about $40 per ton from a month ago and down about $130 per ton from a

year ago.

U.S.

U.S. 4% broken rice ended the month of January at about $470 per ton, down about $10 per ton

from a month ago and down about $30 per ton from a year ago.

The USDA raised estimates for U.S. all rice production to about 8.72 million tons from its last

month‘s forecast of 8.65 million tons due to an expected increase in acreage and yields. The

USDA raised estimates for the U.S. all rice supplies to about 12.02 million tons, up from its last

month's forecast of 11.97 million tons due to an expected increase in all rice production.

Meanwhile the agency lowered estimates for U.S. all rice imports to about 1.09 million tons,

down from its last month‘s forecast of 1.11 million tons based on slower pace to date. The

USDA increased its estimates for 2015-16 U.S. all rice ending stocks to 1.9 million tons, up from

last month's forecast of 1.76 million tons due to an expected increase in the estimates of both

long -grain and short- and medium- ending stocks.

Separately, a University of Arkansas (UA) economist noted that rice acreage in the U.S. state

Arkansas is likely to increase about 20% in 2016 over last year. Arkansas is the largest rice

producing state in the U.S. and accounts for about 50% of the total U.S. rice production. It

mostly produces long-grain rice.

The U.S. and China have agreed on a protocol, which reportedly establishes the phytosanitary or

pest control rules necessary to allow U.S. rice into China; the Wall Street Journal quoted the

USA Rice Federation. Meanwhile, the President of the U.S. Rice Producers Association (RPA)

has expressed concern over the future of U.S. rough rice exports to Mexico if the Trans-Pacific

Partnership (TPP) agreement is successfully completed. The USA Rice Federation President

noted that the U.S. rice industry currently has many opportunities to expand it exports,

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

16

Africa

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Ghana's 2015 paddy rice

production to decline about 9% to about 551,000 tons from about 604,000 tons in 2014. Ghana

imports over a half of its annual rice consumption demand and the government is planning to

increase rice production by about 20% per annum over the next four years to make Ghana self-

sufficient in rice. Ghana produced about 235,000 tons, basis milled, and imported about 417,000

tons of rice in 2014 to meet a consumption demand of about 750,000 tons, according to sources

for the Crop Services Directorate.

Liberian rice importers are collaborating with USAID‘s Food and Enterprise Development

(FED) project to integrate locally-grown rice into their supply chains, according to local sources.

The government of Cameroon has reinstated the 5% customs duty on rice imports under the

2016 Finance Act, according to local sources. Amid concerns of increasing rice prices following

the reinstating of the customs tax, the Trade Minister reportedly urged traders and distributors of

production chains to maintain prices.

The USDA Post estimates South Africa's MY 2015-16 rice consumption to increase about 10%

to about 970,000 tons from about 880,000 tons in MY 2014-15 due to drought reflected record

corn and wheat prices. Consequently, the Post estimates South Africa's rice imports to increase

about 10% to about 1.1 million tons from about 981,594 tons in MY 2014-15. India and

Thailand, supply more than 92% of South Africa's rice demand.

Europe

The EU imported about 477,018 tons of rice during the period September 1, 2015 - January 26,

2016, up about 30% from about 366,417 tons imported during the same period last year.

The USDA forecasts Italy's MY 2015-16 rice production at about 1.5 million tons, up about

7.5% from about 1.4 million tons in MY 2014-15 based on the latest figures from the Italian Rice

Association (Enterisi).

Separately, the Italian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MIPAAF) has reportedly announced

that paddy acquired from non-seed breeding companies will not be allowed in Italy. However,

the MIPAAF has clarified that the paddy grown in one's own farm can be used for re-seeding

purposes.

Russia's rice exports declined by about 67% to about 35,400 tons in the first five months of

2015-16 (July - November) from about 102,700 tons despite the country recording a 5.8% y/y

increase in production in 2015. Russia's major importer Turkey reduced its purchases by about

89% y/y to about 7,400 tons during the five-month period from about 66,000 tons last year. The

USDA Post forecasts Russia's MY 2015-16 (January - December 2016) rice exports at about

190,000 tons, up about 12% from about 170,000 tons in MY 2014-15, and unchanged from

USDA's official forecasts. The Post forecasts Russia's MY 2015-16 rice imports at about 230,000

tons, up about 35% from about 170,000 tons last year, and unchanged from USDA's official

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

17

forecasts. The agency forecasts Russia's MY 2015-16 milled rice production at about 720,000

tons, up about 5.5% from about 682,000 tons last year.

Other Markets

The FAO forecasts Malaysia's 2015-16 (July - June) rice imports to increase despite an increase

in the 2015 rice production due to an expected increase in domestic demand. The agency

forecasts Malaysia's 2015 paddy rice production to increase to about 2.694 million tons, up about

2% from about 2.645 million tons in 2014 due to increased yields, favorable weather and

continued government support to the rice sector, including subsidies for agricultural inputs.

The FAO forecasts Maldives 2015-16 (January-December) rice imports at about 26,000 tons, up

about 3% from about 25,243 tons in 2014-15. Maldives does not produce rice and is entirely

dependent on imports to meet the domestic demand.

The government of Iraq procured 54,000 tons of rice from farmers during on on-going 2015-16

harvest season, which ended on January 07, 2016. Separately, the government of Iraq set

purchase prices for rice at 900,000 dinars (about $821) per ton for "anber" quality and at 700,000

dinars (about $638) per ton for 2016-17 harvest season. The FAO estimates Iraq's 2015 paddy

rice production to decline about 26% to about 300,000 tons from about 403,000 tons in 2014 due

to heavy rains in major rice growing areas. The FAO estimates Iraq's 2015-16 (July-June) rice

imports to be relatively lower than the average 1.3 million tons imported by the Iraqi Grain

Board (IGB) due to the ongoing conflicts in the country.

The USDA forecasts 2015-16 Egyptian paddy rice production at about 5.8 million tons, down

from about 6.57 million tons, and down from the five-year average of about 6.2 million tons due

to poor yields.

The government of Sri Lanka is expecting paddy rice output from the 2015-16 Maha crop

(September - March) at about 2.93 million tons, up about 7% from about 2.74 million tons last

year. Maha rice crop accounts for about 65% of annual production in Sri Lanka. Separately, the

government of Sri Lanka has hiked the import duty on rice to about 50 rupees per kilogram

(about $348 per ton) from about 35 rupees per kilogram (about $244 per ton) with effect from

January 31, 2016.

Research and Scientific Development:

Scientists from the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI) have found that extracts from

seaweeds can boost rice production as well protect rice plants from major pests when they are

treated with slight gamma radiation.

http://oryza.com/24617/seaweed-extracts-can-enhance-rice-growth-30-find-philippines-scientists

Brunei's Department of Agriculture and Agrifood has developed a new inbred rice variety called

"Brunei Darussalam Rice 5 (BDR5)" that is drought-tolerant and high-yielding.

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

18

http://oryza.com/24705/brunei-develops-inbred-drought-tolerant-and-high-yielding-rice-variety

The Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) has introduced a new drought resistant and high

yielding rice variety to cope with the effects of El Nino induced dry conditions.

http://oryza.com/24775/philippines-introduces-new-drought-resistant-and-high-yielding-rice-

variety

A new $10 million state-of-the art facility for studying climate change effects on rice plant

growth has been opened on January 21, 2016, on the campus of the International Rice Research

Institute (IRRI) as part of the IRRI's efforts to achieve food and nutrition across the globe.

http://oryza.com/24794/new-irri-facility-study-climate-change-impact-rice-production

The National Rice Research Institute (NRRI) in India has developed a new rice variety that is

enriched with higher level of protein compared to the traditional rice varieties.

http://oryza.com/24855/india-develops-new-rice-variety-higher-protein-level

Researchers from China and the U.S. have found that transgenic rice plants can provide survival

strategies under drought conditions.

http://oryza.com/24885/transgenic-rice-plants-offer-survival-strategies-under-drought-

conditions-say-researchers

A team of researchers from the Cambodia-based French Research Institute for Development

have found that eating fortified rice can increase the risk of hookworm infections.

http://oryza.com/24907/eating-fortified-rice-may-increase-risk-hookworm-infections-finds-study

Environmentalists are using rice straw to help in the regeneration of natural vegetation in

Australia's mountainous region, which was lost during the construction of a hydro project in the

1950s.

http://oryza.com/24928/rice-straw-helps-regenerate-native-vegetation-australias-snowy-

mountains

January Tenders:

Colombia Rice Export Quota, Inc (COL-RICE) has announced a tender schedule for the shipping

of 94,209 tons of U.S. rice (milled equivalent) to Colombia under the U.S.-Colombia Trade

Promotion Agreement (TPA) as per the 2016 tariff rate quota (TRQ) for U.S.

http://oryza.com/24641/col-rice-announces-2016-auction-schedule-trq-us-rice-colombia-

announces-tender-94209-tons-rice

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

19

Syria's General Foreign Trade Organization (GFTO) has issued a tender to purchase 8,113 tons

of white long-grain rice of third class.

http://oryza.com/24742/syria-issues-tender-buy-8113-tons-white-long-grain-rice

Taiwan's Council of Agriculture, Agriculture and Forest Agency (AFA) has announced the

country specific quotas (CSQ) for the 2016 Simultaneous Buy and Sell (SBS) rice tender.

http://oryza.com/24828/taiwan-announces-country-specific-quotas-2016-rice-sbs-tenders-says-

usda-post

Egypt's state grain buyer General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) cancelled a tender

to purchase an unspecified amount of rice.

http://oryza.com/24827/egypt-cancels-purchase-tender-unspecified-quantity-rice

Global Rice Quotes

February 9th, 2016

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 380-390 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 350-360 ↔

India 5% broken 360-370 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 330-340 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 460-470 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 440-450 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 430-440 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 355-365 ↑

Vietnam 25% broken 340-350 ↔

Pakistan 25% broken 310-320 ↑

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

20

Cambodia 25% broken 405-415 ↔

India 25% broken 325-335 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 440-450 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 370-380 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd NQ ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 350-360 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 480-490 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 520-530 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 690-700 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 425-435 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 750-760 ↔

Brokens Thailand A1 Super 325-335 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 320-330 ↔ Pakistan 100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔ Cambodia A1 Super 345-355 ↔ India 100% broken stxd 260-270 ↔ Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔ U.S. pet food 280-290 ↔ Brazil half grain NQ ↔ All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com Exclusive News have been shared with written permission of ORYZA.com with thanks