7 marcelo cortes, bifi pv psda, antofagasta (chile) 2015

Dr. Marcelo Cortés C.Director of Master in Energy Development

Luis Alvarez V, Miguel Tapia C. Assistant researchers

High Integration of Solar Energy into Chilean Great Northern Grid

(SING)

Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

Chilean systems

2

Sistema Interconectado del Norte Grande (SING)Potencia Instalada : 3698,7 MWGeneración Anual : 15.100 GWh/añoDemanda Máxima : 1998 MWCobertura : Arica y Parinacota hasta AntofagastaPoblación : 6,22 %

Sistema Interconectado Central (SIC)Potencia Instalada : 12.147,1 MWGeneración Anual : 43.254,8 GWh/añoDemanda Máxima : 6.482,1 MWCobertura : Antofagasta a Los LagosPoblación : 92,23 %

Sistema Eléctrico de AisénPotencia Instalada : 40,2 MWGeneración Anual : 121,7 GWh/añoDemanda Máxima : 20,4 MWCobertura : AisénPoblación : 0,61 %

Sistema Eléctrico de MagallanesPotencia Instalada : 98,8 MWGeneración Anual : 268,9 GWh/añoDemanda Máxima : 49,3 MWCobertura : MagallanesPoblación : 0,93 %

Installed capacity: 3, 6 GWEnergy: 15,1 TWh/yr

Max Load: 2 GWLoad Factor 80%

Installed capacity: 12,1 GWEnergy: 43,2 TWh/yrMax Load: 6,5 GWLoad Factor 60%


3

Great Northern Grid. Installed Capacity 2014

Coal, GNL, Diesel, Oil 96,7%3487 MW

Wind 1%90 MW PV 0,5%

23 MW


4

Characteristic of Demand, SING

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

0 50 100 150 200

De

man

da

[MW

]

Hora

Demand Time SING Week January 1, 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0,0

4,4

8,7

13

,1

17

,4

21

,8

26

,1

30

,5

34

,8

39

,2

43

,5

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,2

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60

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,2

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,6

73

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78

,3

82

,6

87

,0

91

,3

95

,7

Po

ten

cia

[MW

]

Load duration curve SING 2013

Estimation 2013Load Factor: Fc = 0,80Prob (Pd > 2000) = 1,13%

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

De

man

da

[MW

]

Average hourly demand curve SING

Med-3*Std

Med+3*Std

Media


5

Law 20.698 (2013). Renewables Obligations (RO)

The electric companies (GENCOS) must inject a percentage of their energy from renewable sources.

5,0

5,0

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2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 5

ENER

GY

GEN

ERA

TED

WIT

H R

ENEW

AB

LES

[%]

YEARS

20.698 LAW. RENEWABLES OBLIGATIONS (RO)

RO for contracts afterJuly 1, 2013

RO for contractsbetween

Aug 31 2007 and July 1, 2013


6

Great Northern Grid. Future Interconetions

SADISalta

Argentina408 km,1x345 kV700 MVABuilt 1999

Don’t workingRestarted 2016


7


COESPerú

2x220 kV400 MVA

stage negotiations

Maybe 2020?

SADISalta




8


COESPerú

2x220 kV400 MVA

stage negotiations

Maybe 2020?

SADISalta



AES-Gener

SICChile

580 km,2x500 kV

2x1500 MVA2017-2020

Investor EC-L


9

Great Northern Grid. Loads forescasts

0

10

20

30

40

50

6020

12

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

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2019

2020

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2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

En

erg

yp

er y

esal

SIN

G (

TW

h)

Proyección CNE Proyección CDEC-SING Base Proyección CDEC-SING Alta

Forecast of electricity demand SING. Source CNE (Energy National Commission, 2012)


10


COESPerú

2x220 kV400 MVA

stage negotiations

Maybe 2020?

SADISalta



SICChile

580 km,2x500 kV

2x1500 MVA2017

Investor EC-L

Investment, costs, prices, profitability, adequacy, security


11

Solar Energy. Our strategy


Analyze the integration of large-scalesolar energy in the SING

12

Objetives


13

Generation

Planning

• Horizon analysis around of 10 - 30 years

• Determination of the optimal power stations to be installed (When, Where, How, Type)

Transmission expansion planning

• Horizon analysis around of 10 - 30 years

• Optimal transmission expansion planning (When, Where, How, Type)

Operational planning

• Horizon analysis around de 1 a 20 años

• Determination of operating costs and prices (marginal costs of energy)

Analysis methodology

14

Minimum investment

cost, operation and fault

Demand forecasting

Forecast fuel prices

legal constraints

Cost estimation

technologies

Generation planning


15

Optimization model for generation planning

,PC

MkSLFSPFpta

MkSLSPFpta

MkNiPC

CFppDCFpp

SPbCaCTMin

iki

kkERNCk

N

i

ERNCiki

kkk

N

i

iki

iki

N

Nj

jj

N

i

ii

N

i

M

k

kiki

N

i

ii

0

,..,1 ;

,..,1 ;

,..,1 ,,..,1 ; 0

- s.a.

1

1

1

11

max

1 11

1

1

1


16

Futures and scenarios considered

FuturesF1. Developing without renewables obligationsF2. Developing with renewables obligations (20/25)F3. Developing with natural gas price low

Scenarios (sensibilities)S1. 10% energy is exported to Argentina (2016)S2. Central CTM (EC-L) is retired of SING and its

energy injected to SIC (2017)S3. 10% energy exported to Argentina plus CTM

retired of SING.


17Internal workshop - Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th November 2014

Results for diferents futures. Installed capacity0,2% 0,8%

1,5%0,0% 2,0%

55,3%

2,2%3,6%

34,0%

0,3%

Hidro de Pasada

Geotérmica

Eólica

Solar Térmica

Solar Fotovoltaica

Carbón

Diesel

Fuel-Oil

Gas Natural

Cogeneración

0,2%0,6%

11,8% 0,0%

18,3%

39,5%

1,6%2,7%

25,1%

0,2%

Hidro de Pasada

Geotérmica

Eólica

Solar Térmica

Solar Fotovoltaica

Carbón

Diesel

Fuel-Oil

Gas Natural

Cogeneración

0,2%0,8% 1,5%

0,0% 2,0%

41,5%

2,2%3,6%

47,9%

0,3%

Hidro de Pasada

Geotérmica

Eólica

Solar Térmica

Solar Fotovoltaica

Carbón

Diesel

Fuel-Oil

Gas Natural

Cogeneración

0,3%0,0% 1,9% 0,0%

2,0%

43,8%

2,9%4,7%

44,1%

0,4%

F1, 2014 F1, 2025

F2, 2025 F3, 2025

6203 MW

7912 MW 6203 MW

18

Minimum cost,

operation and fault

Demand forecasting

Forecast fuel prices

legal constraints

Maintenance unit

programs

Medium-term operational planning


19

Optimization model for operational planning

T

t

N

i

ti

t

iPMt

iiti

ti uCPCuPC

1 1

)(),(min

TtuPP ti

n

i

ti

td ,..,1 , 0

1

TtNiPuPPu iti

tii

ti ,..,1y ,..,1 , maxmin

TtNiuT

uu

UPiTtk

tk

tiUP

i

ti

ti ,..,1 ;,..,1 ,

11

TtNiuT

uu

DWNiTtk

tk

tiDWN

i

ti

ti ,..,1 ;,..,1 ,

11 1

DWNi

oninii

ti

UPi

offinii

ti

tttu

tttu_

_

,..,1,0

,..,1,1

1,0tiu


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• A more accurate estimate of the actual operating costs is required.

• A more accurate estimate of the energy price (marginal cost or spot prices) is required.

• The daily energy unavailability of the sun (plants PV) and wind (wind) makes this analysis even longer obligatory.

Why, Medium-term operational planning?


21

Energy generated

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

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2024

2025

Diesel

Fuel-Oil

Gas Natural

Carbón

Hidro de Pasada

Solar Térmica

Eólica

Cogeneración

Geotérmica

Solar Fotovoltaica

0

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10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

2014

2015

2016

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2019

2020

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2024

2025

Diesel

Fuel-Oil

Gas Natural

Carbón

Hidro de Pasada

Solar Térmica

Eólica

Cogeneración

Geotérmica

Solar Fotovoltaica

0

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10.000

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30.000

35.000

40.000

2014

2015

2016

2017

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2019

2020

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2024

2025

Diesel

Fuel-Oil

Gas Natural

Carbón

Hidro de Pasada

Solar Termica

Eólica

Cogeneración

Geotérmica

Solar Fotovoltaica

F1 F2

F3


22

Energy generated for different future

0

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2025

2025

Costo Marginal Semanal [USD/MWh]


F1; 80,5 USD/MWh aver.

0

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100

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350

2014

2014

2014

2014

2015

2015

2015

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2025



F2; 91,5 USD/MWh aver.

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350

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2025

2025

2025

2025



F3; 79.0 USD/MWh aver.


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Energy generated for different scenarios and not RO

0

50

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250

300

350

2014

2014

2014

2014

2014

2015

2015

2015

2015

2016

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2025

Costo Marg. Sem. [USD/MWh] Escenario Base Costo Marg. Sem. CTM· SIC. 2017

Costo Marg. Sem. Export. SADI 2016 Costo Marg. Sem. CTM3 SIC + Exp.SADI

Spot prices average 2014-2025

F180,51 USD/MWh

F1, S198,26 USD/MWh

F1, S281,36 USD/MWh

F1, S398,90 USD/MWh

F1

F1, S1 F1, S2 F1, S3


0

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2025



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Energy generated for different scenarios with RO


F291,55 USD/MWh

F2, S1120,67 USD/MWh



F2

F2, S1 F2, S2 F2, S3


0

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2014

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2025



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Energy generated for different scenarios with cheap gas


F279,02 USD/MWh




F3

F3, S1F3, S2

F3, S3


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Energy generated for different scenarios with cheap gas

Esce

nario

Sin

Cuo

tas

ERN

C

(Bas

e C

arbó

n)

Con

Cuo

tas

ERN

C

(Exi

genc

ia

20/2

5)

Sin

Cuo

tas

ERN

C(B

ase

Gas

)

Sin

Cuo

tas

ERN

C(T

erm

osol

ar)

Plan

de

Obr

as

Indi

cativ

o C

NE

(201

3)

Plan

de

Obr

as

Indi

cativ

o C

NE

(201

4)

Costo de Inversión [millones. USD] 4.884 7.271 2.571 11.429 3.260 6.506Demanda Neta Máxima en [MW] 4.120 4.120 4.120 4.120 4.120 3.616Energía Consumida en [GWh] 288.564 288.564 288.564 288.564 288.564 263.480Participación de Diesel 0,00% 0,05% 0,03% 0,00% 0,01% 0,07%Participación de Fuel-Oil 0,01% 0,52% 0,28% 0,09% 0,09% 0,58%Participación de Gas Natural 12,34% 7,68% 15,41% 10,16% 8,92% 11,77%Participación de Carbón 82,75% 80,74% 79,48% 74,29% 85,62% 72,36%Participación de Hidro 0,55% 0,55% 0,55% 0,55% 0,55% 0,58%Participación de Solar PV 1,29% 3,69% 1,29% 1,29% 1,81% 8,27%Participación de Eólica 0,96% 4,85% 0,96% 0,96% 1,52% 2,22%Participación Termosolar 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 10,64% 0,00% 2,18%Participación de Geotermia 1,37% 1,27% 1,37% 1,37% 0,85% 1,30%Participación de Otros 0,64% 0,64% 0,64% 0,64% 0,64% 0,68%Energía No Suministrada 0,00% 0,01% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%Costo Marginal Promedio [USD/MWh] 80,51 91,55 79,02 74,72 80,09 89,37Costo Medio de Producción [USD/MWh] 38,01 35,64 37,84 33,62 38,02 37,38Costo de Operación [millones. USD] 10.970 10.285 10.920 9.704 10.972 9.848Costo de Inversiones y Operación 15.854 17.556 13.491 21.133 14.232 16.354


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• The renewable obligation produces an increase in the investment cost, close to 48%.

• The spot price with RO is grader than without RO. It is produced by long minimum down time and minimum up time of coal unit of the SING.

• The removal of the CMT unit produces an increase in the spot price close to 20 USD/MWh.

• Interconnection with Argentina causes an increase in price close to 10 USD /MWh

Conclusions and Future works


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Future Works• Study mechanisms to regulate interconnection• Development a dynamic model for generation

planning.• Including the uncertainty in the model• Include the expansion of the transmission

network in analysis• Include renewable law in operational planning

model• Include storage models unit commitment model.

Conclusions and Future works


Year 2015. New, Solar Energy PhD.

Universidad de Antofagasta – 18th December 2014

Thank You for you attention

7 marcelo cortes, bifi pv psda, antofagasta (chile) 2015

Presentations & Public Speaking

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