7 January 2008 Tornado at the Rolla-Vichy National Airport John Gagan NOAA National Weather Service...
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7 January 2008 Tornadoat the Rolla-Vichy National Airport
John GaganNOAA • National Weather Service
Springfield, Missouri
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Outline
• Event overview• Focus on tornadic supercell affecting KVIH
– Reflectivity, SRM and Base Velocity Imagery– Warning decision process– Role of Heuristics (“gut feelings”)
• KVIH observations (1 min, 5 sec) – direct hit!• Pics from Survey
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Event Overview
• 12 hours of tornadoes, hail, wind and flooding• Watches: 3 Tornado Watches (1 PDS), 1 Severe• Warnings: 62 Tornado, 33 Severe, 4 Flash Flood• 161 Severe Weather Reports• 33 Tornadoes• 3 Fatalities, Numerous Injuries• In previous Januaries from 1950-2007, only 5
Tornadoes were reported in SW Missouri
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Event Overview
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Event Overview250 mb
00z January 8th
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Event Overview500 mb
00z January 8th
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Event Overview850 mb
00z January 8th
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SGF
RAO
B00
z Jan
uary
8th
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Loop of Event
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33 Tornadoes in January!
Only 5 tornadoes reported in January from 1950-2007!
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LSX
SGF
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• KLSX WSR 88D• KVIH is ~5200 ft AGL• Rank 5-6 Meso
• non continuous• No TVS• Warning decision
~0325 UTC
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From IEM COW – Iowa State University
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Warning Decision
• Quickly transitioned from coordinator role to warning operator– Bathroom breaks!!!!– Warning operator fatigue
• Assigned to Sector 3 (central MO)• Meso was weakening• No recent (<30 min) reports from the storm• Why continue to warn?
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Warning Decision• Ultimately, the warning decision hinged on a
heuristic (gut feeling)– Meso began to reorganize/strengthen– Reflectivity structure in tact– Not much info < 8000 ft– Past history – numerous reports of damage – cyclic
• “Warn on a cyclic supercell until it’s someone else’s problem.”
• Great reference– “Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious”– Gerd Gigerenzer
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KVIHVichy Tornado Track
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340
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10 9 8 7 6 64 5 6
811 12 13
16 17
27
4442
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2117 16 15
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9 8 7 7
12 11 118 7 7 7 8
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2219 19 19
14 13 1412 12
9 911
KVIH Station 2-min and 5-sec Wind Speed Plot340 to 410 UTC 8 January 2008
2min Wind Spd 5sec Wind Spd
Hour UTC
Knot
s
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2 Minute Wind 5 Second Wind
KVIH Takes a Direct Hit!
0347 UTCTo
0400 UTC
• Wind direction switched from ESE to WNW
• Wind speed changed from 5 to 44 knots
• Wind direction switched from ESE to NW
• Wind speed changed from 8 to 84 knots
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KVIHDouglas DC-3WWII Era Planes
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KVIH
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EF Rating
• Main casualty was trees– A few hard and soft wood trees uprooted– DIs 27 and 28, highest DOD was 3
• Most extensive damage was to the destroyed mobile home– Not tied down well – Pushed and rolled– Debris field scattered over 200 yds– DI 3 (single wide), DOD 9 (lower bound)– Damage consistent with high end EF-1
• VIH ASOS ~ 1-1.5 mi west of mobile home damage– 5 second wind speed well within EF-1 range
• 13 mile path, max width 100 yds, max winds 110 mph
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Acknowledgements
• Ron Przybylinski – LSX radar• Kelsey Angle – Prior work on event• The SGF office for a job well done