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สำ��นั�กง�นัคณะกรรมก�รวิ�จั�ยแห่�งช�ติ�
เป็�นัสำมองของป็ระเทศเป็�นัสำมองของป็ระเทศ
30 30 ติ�ล�คม ติ�ล�คม 22 551551 แม�แม�ยมพ�เลสำ แพร�ยมพ�เลสำ แพร�
รองศ�สำติร�จั�รย!ก�มป็นั�ท ภั�กดี$ก�ล รองศ�สำติร�จั�รย!ก�มป็นั�ท ภั�กดี$ก�ล PhDPhDคณะสำ�%งแวิดีล&อมและทร�พย�กรศ�สำติร! คณะสำ�%งแวิดีล&อมและทร�พย�กรศ�สำติร!
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เห่ย(%อผู้+&จั�กไป็
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สำวิรรคโลก จั.สำ�โขท�ย
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ล�กษณะเดี�นัช�ดีของล�กษณะเดี�นัช�ดีของพ�บ้�ติ�ภั�ยนั�,�พ�บ้�ติ�ภั�ยนั�,�
1. ม�ไม�เคยบ้อก 2 . ท��นั�ยไม�ค�อยจัะถู+ก
3 . เติ(อนัไม�ค�อยจัะเช(%อ 4 . ห่&�มไม�ค�อยจัะฟั3ง
5 . ค�ดีไม�ค�อยถู4ง 6 . สำ+ญเสำ$ย
Number of Flood Events in Thailand
Number of Flood Events
9
12
14
109
11
8
10
7
12
9
12
14
5
17
12 12
6
11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Number of Death Body
602
50 4316
47 46
442
15898
853
120
244216
44 2675
446
152
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 Avg
Number of Deaths Found from Flood in Thailand
Agricultural Area Loss by Flood in Thailand (Million Hectare)
Agri. Area Loss (Million Hectare)
1.62
0.36
1.58
2.29 2.56
2.24
0.61
3.36
1.96
0.070.49
1.65
4.66
1.67
0.26 0.53
0.27
1.051.51
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 Avg
Trend of Number of Days that Temp. above 33 Celsius in 1976-2006, 2010-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089
Thailand
Northern Northeastern CentralEastern Southern
Scenarios A2 IPCC(Nathsuda, et. al. 2008)
Trend of Number of Days that Temp. is below 15 Celsius in 1976-2006, 2010-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089
Northern
Eastern
Central
Northeastern
Southern
Thailand(Nathsuda, et. al. 2008)
Preparedeess
Recovery
Reha
bilita
tion
Response
Readiness
/(Fl
ood F
orecas
ting)
(Flood Warnin
g)
ก�รท��ง�นัเช�งร�กและก�รติ�,งร�บ้ท$%ดี$ ติ&องก�รท��ง�นัเช�งร�กและก�รติ�,งร�บ้ท$%ดี$ ติ&องท��พร&อมก�นัไป็ท��พร&อมก�นัไป็
พ�นัธก�จั: ร�ยง�นัสำถู�นัภั�พก�รวิ�จั�ยของป็ระเทศ
เพ(%อป็ร�บ้กระบ้วินัท�ศนั!ติ�มพลวิ�ติของโลก
30 30 ติ�ล�คม ติ�ล�คม 22 551551 แม�แม�ยมพ�เลสำ แพร�ยมพ�เลสำ แพร�
Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models Project?Project?
385 ppm385 ppm
180 ppm
280 ppm
Medium Polar Caps
Large Polar Caps
?Small Caps
or cold reversal
COCO2 2 + NO+ NOxxs + CFCs + methane s + CFCs + methane
+H+H22OO
(1.66 W/m(1.66 W/m22))
Ice melt is accelerating
Sea level rise
11
22
33
HH22O vaporO vapor
COCO22
– – SOSOxxs + black soot = s + black soot =
(0.9 W/m(0.9 W/m22))
? ppm CO? ppm CO22-equivalent or GWP-equivalent or GWP
AlbedoAlbedo
460 ppm CO2e
TundrTundraa
Arctic sea ice
Epstein, 2008 Center for Health and The Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
Costs of Extreme Weather EventsCosts of Extreme Weather Events
UNEP-INNOVESTUNEP-INNOVEST$150B/y by 2010$150B/y by 2010
US$4 B/yUS$4 B/y
US$40 B/yUS$40 B/y
US$123-145 B
• 200-fold increase in insured losses: $400m/yr-$83bn
US$200-225 B
2004
2005
MONTANE REGIONSMONTANE REGIONS
Epstein, 2008Epstein, 2008 Center for Health and The Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
1997-98 ENSO 1997-98 ENSO
DISASTERS AND DISEASE DISASTERS AND DISEASE ‘CLUSTERS’‘CLUSTERS’
Epstein, 2008 Center for Health and The Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
Changes in the Cryosphere
Epstein, 2008 Center for Health and The Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
Geographic Shifts of Disease Vectors
Epstein, 2008 Center for Health and The Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
Dengue (“Breakbone”) fever/DHFDengue (“Breakbone”) fever/DHF
ProMED
Aedes aegypti
1. Yemen 2. India (New
Delhi)3. Indonesia
(Central Java) 4. Viet Nam 5. Malaysia 6. Brazil (Rio,
Bahia) >31,000, >120 >31,000, >120 DHFDHF
45 YF, 25 deaths45 YF, 25 deaths
Epstein, 2008 Center for Health and The Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
HURRICANE IVAN 2004
AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURE
2005
FLOODS: Fungi and Nematodes
STORMS
DROUGHTS: Aphids, Whiteflies, Locust
RANGE CHANGE:
SOYBEAN SUDDEN DEATH
SYNDROME GeminiviruseGeminiviruse
ss
Epstein, 2008 Center for Health and The Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
TOURISM TOURISM Vector-borne diseases
Dengue fever and malaria
Water- and food-borne illnessHarmful Algal Blooms (“Red tides”)Coral bleaching and disease
Hurricanes
Dust storms
Epstein, 2008 Center for Health and The Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
COCO22, Climate Change and , Climate Change and Health Health
Ragweed
Poison Ivy
Lyme
WNV**
Mushroom spores
Heatwaves & smog
Particulates & pollen
Mold
Tree pollen 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
CO2 350ppm
CO2 700ppm
Height
Seed Mass
Pollen
Biomass
Stalks
Pollen
2X 2X COCO22
Agricultural weedsAgricultural weeds
Epstein, 2008 Center for Health and The Global Environment,Harvard Medical School