台灣資本市場展望
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1
20091802010208201111ECFA5572011.03.312011ECFA1062000125156
2ECFA
3IMF4: World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2011 20115 : 1. Includes Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Colombia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and Venezuela. 2. Includes only economies that report quarterly data to the IMF. 3. Includes Australia, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Euro Area, Hong Kong SAR, Israel, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
1GDP( %; )Year200820092010201120122.9-0.55.04.44.50.2-3.43.02.42.60.7-1.910.95.1-6.12.77.36.56.51GDP 2008-2012( %; )
Advanced Economies42GDP
5: World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2011 20115
2000.7-2009.6 GDP 3.4% 2008.7-2010.12 GDP 4.0%09-11 Avg.3.2%3.6%6.3%4.7%GCI 201011091008-09 (139)*15.631225.564435.483545.432155.397765.378975.376685.3310895.3253105.3910115.271111125.251312135.211217145.141415155.13161626WCS 2011WCS2010 (59)*1100.00 21100.00 3398.55 1494.06 6592.58 4692.01 8790.78 7890.21 15989.2551087.82 161186.47 111286.41 131386.3191485.70121584.38 19:The Global Competitiveness Report, 2010-2011, World Economic Forum, WEF: The World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2011, IMD+2+56
3
7/139 13 7 9127 1 3/139 4(5)2(N/A)20(35)58(94): ()2009 The Global Competitiveness Report, 2010-2011, World Economic Forum, WEF.1Transition1-223Transition2-3Factor drivenEfficiency drivenInnovation drivenStage of development784 : EIU2004-20082009-201310110109.7129.7209.539.53309.469.49429.549.445-19.3779.44619.4459.427-29.1399.2819.1689.169-19.08109.061008.94119.051108.93128.981208.88138.961308.79158.891418.87148.8315-1: A new ranking of the world's most innovative countries -- An Economist Intelligence Unit report+1ECFA91. ECFA10ECFA=Everything Covered Friendly Agenda=WTO+ 11ECFA: WTO+12ECFA() 2010.9.12 ECFAECFAFTAECFA After : WTO++ 13(% 2009)(% 2009)267$2.86 (10.5%)539$13.84 (16.1%)NoneN/A18N/A9N/A11N/A5ECFA: 6ECFAECFAECFAECFA20101-64,033,405376,18738,157,69034,124,285 131,883,27020111-64,930,550655,86342,816,90337,886,353 154,143,59522%74%12%11%17%141. 2. 201156 3. ECFAECFA84 : :715111.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.11.91.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.: ECFA After = WTO++WTO/
16: : 17 :
2.1831919861986GDP4,0072010GDP4,39420(1952-2010)1952-1986: 1986: (1978-2010)(+)(2010)(?)
21()()2000-2009I/DGDP(GDP1) = 5.18()()
2000-2009 I/DGDP = 3.46213.
22(1)231980-1986()1986-1990/
(2)24 (/) () (Asia-Pacific Regional Operations Centre, APROC)
251. IT268IT: 1. 1990-1999World Economic Outlook(IMF)20009 2. 2011Bloomberg: 20112011422201131990199519992011/3 18.321.833.323.318.317.927.911.810.78.819.87.73.56.222.99.812.012.918.810.08.740.271.322.911.112.423.921.40.45.118.219.016.010.918.012.93.928.927.010.72.713.454.251.027:%41950-198528529
:
2. 309 : 31MSCI Emerging Markets Index(Total 21 countries)RankCountry1China2Brazil3Korea4Taiwan5India6South Africa7Russia8Mexico9Malaysia10IndonesiaFTSE Emerging All Cap Index(Total 22 countries)RankCountry1Brazil2China3Taiwan4India5South Africa6Russia7Mexico8Malaysia9Indonesia10Thailand: FTSE (April 2011) & MSCI (Feb. 2011), ranks by weight of index FTSEMSCI3432: Bloomberg2011/7/62008/9/3100 810200820103320082010Taiwan TAIEX 4,591.22 8,972.50 95.43%KOSPI Composite 1,124.47 2,051.00 82.40%FTSE STRAITS 1,761.56 3,190.04 81.09%NASDAQ Composite 1,577.03 2,652.87 68.22%HANG SENG 14,387.48 23,035.45 60.11%Shanghai Composite 1,820.81 2,808.08 54.22%FTSE 100 4,434.17 5,899.94 33.06%Don Jones Industrial Average 8,776.39 11,577.51 31.92%NIKKEI 225 8,859.56 10,228.92 15.46%: 11TAIWAN TAIEX INDEXKOSPI INDEXFTSE STRAITS TIMES INDEXHANG SENG INDEXNIKKEI 225SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITEFTSE 100 INDEXS&P 500 INDEXTAIWAN TAIEX INDEX1.000 0.653 0.619 0.611 0.568 0.333 0.323 0.342 KOSPI INDEX0.653 1.000 0.546 0.624 0.651 0.389 0.317 0.357 FTSE STRAITS TIMES INDEX0.619 0.546 1.000 0.771 0.533 0.360 0.178 0.289 HANG SENG INDEX0.611 0.624 0.771 1.000 0.595 0.513 0.279 0.392 NIKKEI 2250.568 0.651 0.533 0.595 1.000 0.301 0.472 0.534 SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE0.333 0.389 0.360 0.513 0.301 1.000 0.119 0.174 FTSE 100 INDEX0.323 0.317 0.178 0.279 0.472 0.119 1.000 0.657 S&P 500 INDEX0.342 0.357 0.289 0.392 0.534 0.174 0.657 1.000 34: Bloomberg: 2009/01/01 to 2010/12/31 BloombergTT-134359: 3610: 36: IPO; SPOWFE Statistics372002200811 2002-2010
38121. 2. 3. 20022009EPS200014.84170.8012.8015.3420.9122.8523.3158.22200141.57240.9012.1829.2916.7531.0620.2937.71200241.77-14.8915.6121.1729.0017.7334.43200324.76614.1018.9610.0624.8727.8818.2936.54200412.5839.0018.7315.8416.6020.4414.6924.23200517.5545.8015.5710.9815.3718.8513.9716.33200618.9836.0017.3711.4013.9218.1613.3733.30200715.3126.7022.4716.8414.7418.3911.8359.242008 9.8020.007.268.996.0019.598.8814.852009110.54 -18.13 23.68 26.12 86.91 17.78 28.73 201016.0445.0016.6718.9612.7017.5012.1421.6218.8350.0315.5214.5314.2422.4814.4127.97:39:%13: ; WFE
2000259.1658.80 60.90 243.00 58.50 87.70 69.30 185.29 2001206.9560.00 43.90 218.70 58.70 86.90 83.80 77.98 2002217.4167.90 39.70 254.40 53.80 94.80 97.30 60.33 2003190.8282.60 51.70 193.10 74.40 89.50 106.60 118.00 2004177.4697.10 57.70 147.20 60.80 89.80 116.60 87.00 2005131.36115.30 50.30 206.90 48.40 99.10 110.10 82.10 2006142.20125.80 62.10 171.40 58.20 134.30 124.80 153.80 2007153.28138.40 94.10 192.60 77.60 167.10 154.20 211.00 2008145.55151.20 86.04 196.27 63.67 240.16 152.73 118.19 2009178.27 128.84 83.73 242.87 67.31161.14 106.84 229.06 2010136.74109.6462.17176.31 53.30130.1976.13178.47166.33110.5169.58196.6862.19125.05109.98178.70
401.80()4.51%12Bloomberg201164041WFE14:%41 (10)20072008200920102011 767.2 950.7403.0719.0893.7+*865.31,084.9479.0833.51,056.11.=/ 2.3. 20101.454. 20005.41.02.02.42.4N/AN/A20014.91.32.91.72.60.8120023.71.43.41.82.61.2120033.10.92.92.12.91.3120044.412.92.12.81.71.420055.40.82.91.73.22.62.220064.21.12.21.73.50.81.120074.21.42.21.42.90.30.520089.82.75.12.26.22.21.620092.82.22.10.9N/A1.20.493.9079.4086.8026.40N/A 51.8026.1013:2011542
20115TWSE33.55% 201115TWSE20.5%:%424215201043
CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
442008 3~62008 72009 12010 32011245356
TDR
..434TDR8IML410TDR12TDRTDR6Elpida TDRNYSE-AMEXTDR16461. 2.: IMLTPK85C8:, 2011.07.0620082020091602010286201182548(2)17TDR47TDRTDR20082020091210201015(3)1220119538271. 2011.07.06 2. 5TDR2 3. OSIM2010/12/102011/2/222010 4./92144820115 49TDR102927486401835829121410212331121517281122316294191013437138339112281671113611320112132114 156111314128145111346141161123321324471726642631518 2009201050IT
TWSE5253
54552010.09.20 ()57LEDLEDLED4LEDLED(50,000)LED(1,000)LEDLED(ISA)LEDLED58201052010.06(1/5)3
591999200820105,316131720112,000(1,123877)201141(2010.09.031992.09.18-2010.9.2)
60ECFA201027820092.32784226
61 1200812 (Taiwan CPC) vs.(China CNOOC) : :993020098 (40%) vs. (60%)NT/P76
62 22010.08LuxgenECFA15.550%34
632009GDP8.7%-40.7%95.2%15642000-2008GDP10.05%()GDP11.0%()GDP45.0%65
16GDP *SSHKGDP 19(%)1590 AIRTAC149,999,99876.361003673 TPK 224,067,52274.411002308 2,401,466,79074.061002330 25,914,283,11472.701006239 726,496,94072.561002311 6,052,219,21272.401002837 1,623,463,85869.531008404 KY198,482,93167.601002029 321,180,00066.711003231 1,986,152,31863.60100: , 2011.07.06ETFTDR 6620 468820()42()85448682672011.7.6Chart10.070820.039570.073830.047030.07020.051790.0870.054370.063820.051060.0880.059830.0230.022980.0150.00731-0.0270.00196-0.008-0.01930.0680.060610.1450.10880.0540.044750.0520.0506
YoY%5.1%Taiwan
Sheet12005200620072008200920102011f2012f7.1%7.0%6.4%2.3%-2.7%6.8%5.4%4.2%4.0%5.2%5.1%2.3%0.2%6.1%4.5%4.2%7.4%8.7%8.8%1.5%-0.8%14.5%5.2%4.4%4.7%5.4%6.0%0.7%-1.9%10.9%5.1%5.2%
Chart14.825.12406255.635.516255.364.96281256.56.38406255.635.30906255.094.89843754.744.82843754.634.7581255.045.15093755.154.6056255.174.993755.294.4771875
TaiwanStage 3
Sheet1Country/EconomyInstitutionsInfrastructureMacroeconomic environmentHealth and primary educationHigher education and trainingGoods market efficiencyLabor market efficiencyFinancial market developmentTechnological readinessMarket SizeBusiness sophisticationInnovationTaiwan4.825.635.366.55.635.094.744.635.045.155.175.29Transition from 2 to 34.434.644.946.004.774.424.524.434.353.604.143.44Stage 35.125.524.966.385.314.904.834.765.154.614.994.48
Chart226820.02751080.1348392.6070.329111085511803.5240.54447298968191.4739857750.552525712410247.5987536440.64886420329094.9362853230.521916795412867.827309720.522839468813989.0995905190.475877225115633.8575493050.570735586719376.9747787460.560864273921527.2976235790.55350493911706.52693358170.515816941621033.64007333310.560799283423811.41630266420.5178671759
Total Mkt Cap (NTD Billion)%:
Sheet1()Mkt Cap of Electronic Industry (NTD Billion)()Total Mkt Cap (NTD Billion)%()()%1990724.127226,8192,6822.70%19956,845.3168551,0845,10813.40%199827,6212,76283,9268,39332.91%159,147296,19053.73%199964,2676,427118,03511,80454.45%194,590292,91566.43%200045,2604,52681,9158,19155.25%226,617305,26674.24%200166,4936,649102,47610,24864.89%150,119183,54981.79%200247,4684,74790,9499,09552.19%156,045218,74071.34%200367,2786,728128,67812,86852.28%117,738203,33257.90%200466,5716,657139,89113,98947.59%123,759238,75451.84%200589,2288,923156,33915,63457.07%137,214188,18972.91%2006108,67910,868193,77019,37756.09%171,125239,00471.60%2007119,15511,915215,27321,52755.35%229,329330,43869.40%200860,3846,038117,06511,70751.58%101,979185,46454.99%2009117,95711,796210,33621,03456.08%2010123,31212,331238,11423,81151.79%12,331,150,914,99323,811,416,302,664
Chart226820.02751080.1348392.6070.329111085511803.5240.54447298968191.4739857750.552525712410247.5987536440.64886420329094.9362853230.521916795412867.827309720.522839468813989.0995905190.475877225115633.8575493050.570735586719376.9747787460.560864273921527.2976235790.55350493911706.52693358170.515816941621033.64007333310.560799283423811.41630266420.5178671759
Total Mkt Cap (NTD Billion)%:
Sheet1()Mkt Cap of Electronic Industry (NTD Billion)()Total Mkt Cap (NTD Billion)%()()%1990724.127226,8192,6822.70%19956,845.3168551,0845,10813.40%199827,6212,76283,9268,39332.91%159,147296,19053.73%199964,2676,427118,03511,80454.45%194,590292,91566.43%200045,2604,52681,9158,19155.25%226,617305,26674.24%200166,4936,649102,47610,24864.89%150,119183,54981.79%200247,4684,74790,9499,09552.19%156,045218,74071.34%200367,2786,728128,67812,86852.28%117,738203,33257.90%200466,5716,657139,89113,98947.59%123,759238,75451.84%200589,2288,923156,33915,63457.07%137,214188,18972.91%2006108,67910,868193,77019,37756.09%171,125239,00471.60%2007119,15511,915215,27321,52755.35%229,329330,43869.40%200860,3846,038117,06511,70751.58%101,979185,46454.99%2009117,95711,796210,33621,03456.08%2010123,31212,331238,11423,81151.79%12,331,150,914,99323,811,416,302,664
Chart11316119311324750773456853345251438596317020532223751136121125661550211624060084023723652602163025174147
IPOSPOTotal
Sheet1SPOIPOTotal2002119311316132472003345650778533200414384525596320052053170222320061361751211220071550566211620086002408402009236523726022010251716304147
Chart116.253.629030156219.825.897834133216.297.654009435122.5810.656729541423.1912.50199563431.7317.871117611834.0118.399310908933.2119.738593341730.3624.36999267831.8716.354855482331.1918.433.5520.5
16.25%34.01%31.19%33.55%3.63%24.37%18.4%20.50%
Sheet1(10)(10)200016.253.6338.0936.050.00248993.3200119.825.9054.1532.210.00293546.1200216.297.6540.3548.620.00261635.2200322.5810.6681.3363.090.00379592.0200423.1912.5097.1589.660.00441717.3200531.7317.87143.99104.220.00476583.0200634.0118.40189.63135.480.00595736.5200733.2119.74206.36199.050.006641,008.3200830.3624.37103.24203.830.00356836.6200931.8716.35209.39147.840.00657903.9201031.1918.40244.53164.680.00784895.0201133.5520.50263.0618.35784.09889.4916.3548554823
Sheet2
Chart21207.7149220491258.1514476615290.6286484059305.6937584194175.0406330197179.1509837468171.7473524962181.9675575727160.7590656285179.7041156841110.4255354012115.6106113487107.6515823721122.469683525691.3623093504100.419156366887.103653755793.661596361970.114666715566.716062498946.211043821449.771196243943.212234782151.198089826526.529767264228.61681809522.308281164922.2050217746
2010 / 2010GDP20114 / 2010GDP: (%)
Sheet1Name of2010 / 2010GDP20114 / 2010GDPHong Kong Exchanges1,207.711,258.15Singapore Exchange290.63305.69Taiwan SE Corp.175.04179.15Bursa Malaysia171.75181.97London SE160.76179.70*SSHK110.43115.61Korea Exchange107.65122.47NYSE Group91.36100.42Thailand SE87.1093.66Tokyo SE70.1166.72Shanghai SE46.2149.77Deutsche Brse43.2151.20Nasdaq26.5328.62Shenzhen SE22.3122.21
Sheet2Name of2010 / 2010GDP20114 / 2010GDP2010201142010GDPHong Kong Exchanges1,207.711,258.152,711.322,824.55224.5Singapore Exchange290.63305.69647.23680.78222.7Taiwan SE Corp.175.04179.15818.49837.71467.6Bursa Malaysia171.75181.97408.69433.01237.96London SE160.76179.703,613.064,038.852247.5*SSHK110.43115.616739.167055.606102.9Korea Exchange107.65122.471,091.911,242.211014.3NYSE Group91.36100.4213394.0814721.8514660.4Thailand SE87.1093.66277.73298.64318.85Tokyo SE70.1166.723827.773642.235459.3Shanghai SE46.2149.772716.472925.755878.4Deutsche Brse43.2151.201429.721693.943308.6Nasdaq26.5328.623889.374195.3414660.4Shenzhen SE22.3122.211311.371305.305878.4