50 years of change and a model for the future Cathy Parker and Simon Quin
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Transcript of 50 years of change and a model for the future Cathy Parker and Simon Quin
50 years of change and a model for the future
Cathy Parker and Simon Quin @placemanagement #HSUK2020
Good morning and welcome
Welcome particularly to representatives of our partner towns:
• Alsager, Altrincham, Ballymena, Barnsley, Bristol (St George), Congleton, Holmfirth, Market Rasen, Morley and Wrexham
Welcome also to our international webinar participants• Australia • Canada• Cyprus• Germany • Greece • Italy• Malaysia
• Netherlands• Portugal• Poland• Sweden• United Kingdom • …and Isle of Man
https://mmu.adobeconnect.com/uk2020mmu/
Agenda
09.30 – 10.30
10.30 – 11.00
11.00 – 13.00
50 years of high street change & a model for the futureBreak
Repositioning, reinventing, rebranding & restructuring your high street
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
Parliament June 2014
The challenge….and some background
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
Change in retailer location 2000-11
Out of town up 50 million square feet
Town centre down 46 million square feet
100,000 !
Loss won’t be uniform
Centre for Retail Research 2013
London
South East East
South W
est
Scotla
nd
West Midlan
ds
North East
Yorks
East M
idlands
North W
estWale
s0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Department for Transport 2011
Department for Transport 2011
Change in Tesco store format
10
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1972 1995
66% of stores under 5000 sq ft
47% of stores over 25,000 sq ft
Dawson J 2004
Generating 70% of retail sales
29000 retailers
100 retailers
1971 2004
Food
Bulky goods
Durable goods
Planning Statistical Release 4, DCLG, 2009
Percentage of newly built retail space in
town centres:1971-2008
Actual Town Centre Town Centre plus 300 metres
Online retailing
Online share of home retailing 2014
UK
US
Germany
Sweden
Europe av
Netherlands
France
Spain
Poland
Italy
0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%
Centre for Retail Research 2013
Growth ForecastsOnline retailing
16% pa£52 bn in 2015
M-retailing
62% this year£7.92 bn
Centre for Retail Research 2013
Town centre share of retail spend
200049.4%
201142.2%
201439.8
%
Parliament 2014
The response
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
• Vital & Viable Town Centres• Planning Policy Guidance/Statements• Business Improvement Districts• High Street Britain 2015• The Portas Review• Understanding High Street Performance• Future High Streets Forum
Nature of TCM schemes
IPM 2009
Influencing strategy
Service delivery
Formingstrategy
PWC 2008
Focus of TCM schemes
Action
Attractions
Amenity
Accessibility
The 4 As
Making things
happen
What the centre has to
offer
Experience within centre
Getting into, out of, and
around centre
The 4 As
SpatialMacroMeso factors
The research
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
10000 studies found
2345 after clean up
923 ‘retail’ highlighted
253 town centre/high st
173 studies reviewed
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
Review parameters1. Type of study (empirical, exploratory, conceptual)2. Methodological evidence3. Data source (primary, secondary, tertiary)4. Dependent variable (retail area performance measure)5. Independent variables (factor affecting performance)6. Significance (major findings and statistical significance if available) 7. Limitations (flaws, weaknesses etc.)8. Author, date, publisher9. Geographical location (UK, US, Europe, e.g.)10.Size of retail/shopping centre (Different geographical scales of place, e.g.
city centre, town centre, high street, neighbourhood centre, district centre, suburban centre)
Time in minutes per review
Retail Restructuring and Consumer Choice 1: Long-term local changes in consumer behaviour: Portsmouth, 1980-2002 38
minsUS nationwide trends in metropolitan retail trade: A perspective of the mid 1980s
Most of the studies were empirical
Empirical
Conceptual
ExplanatoryHistorical
Other
Most published in the last 10 years
Mostly from UK and Europe
City CentreTown CentreHigh StreetNeighbourhood CentreDistrict CentreSuburban CentreOut of town Centre
Focus of data
166 factors influence performance
And if 166 factors were not enough…..
• Partner towns identified 50 additional factors that influence the High Street
• 33 additional studies reviewed• 201 factors finally identified, but:
–how much influence does each one have?
–what should towns be focussing on?
The Delphi Technique
The Delphi method is unique in its method of eliciting and refining group judgement as it is based on the notion that a group of experts is better than one expert when exact knowledge is not available.
(Paliwoda, 1983).
22 Experts participated Practitioner Academic
Major retailer Manchester Metropolitan University
Shopping centres owner University of Leicester
Urban consultant University of Dundee
Retail letting agency University of Ulster
Urban policy group Oxford University
Trade association University of Manchester
Professional body University of Liverpool
University of Portsmouth
University of Loughborough
Consensus reached on
1. How much influence each factor has on the vitality and viability of the High Street
2. How much control a location has over the factor
Spatial
Macro
Meso
Micro
You can’t control everything
The model
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
Influence relationships
• Weak inverse relationship between influence town has over factor and influence factor has over vitality and viability
• As a rule of thumb the more a factor influences vitality and viability, the less you can do about it
• Towns need to focus on factors they can influence, and where that influence will impact on vitality and viability
Not worth it! Get on with it!
Forget it! Live with it!
3.300 3.500 3.700 3.900 4.100 4.300 4.500 4.7002.700
2.900
3.100
3.300
3.500
3.700
3.900
ACTIVITY HOURS
APPEARANCE
RETAILERSVISION&STRATEGY
EXPERIENCE
MANAGEMENTMERCHANDISE
NECESSITIES
Anchor stores
NETWORKS & PARTNERSHIPS WITH COUNCIL
DIVERSITYWALKING
ENTERTAINMENT AND LEISURE
PLACE ASSURANCE
ATTRACTIVENESS
ACCESSIBLE
PLACE MARKETING
Comparison/convenience
RECREATIONAL SPACE
Barriers to Entry
Chain vs independent
Safety/crime
LIVEABLE
ADAPTABILITY
How much factor influences vitality and viability
How
muc
h to
wn
can
influ
ence
fact
or
Top 25 priorities
Forecasting the future of your high street
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
Spatial factors
Location Distance to centre Size/Type of townSpatial structure
Towns can’t do anything about these factors!
High Street UK 2020
Macro factorsEconomy
Consumer trends Business rates
Ageing populationTechnology
Retail planning policy
Towns can’t change these on their own
High Street UK 2020
Meso factorsBarriers to entry
Competition (other towns)Comparison/Convenience
Out of town shoppingTenant variety Vacancy rates
Towns interact with these/have some
Influence
High Street UK 2020
Micro factorsCleanliness
Visual appearanceNetworking
Opening HoursAttractions
Centre MarketingAmenities
Car-parkingEntertainment
Leadership
High Street UK 2020
Macro
Meso
Micro
Partnerships have 63.89 % of potential influence
Spatial
RESULTS from #HSUK2020 towns
Cleanlin
ess
Visual
appea
rance
Networki
ng
Opening h
ours
Attractions
Centre
mark
eting
Amenities
Car-park
ing
Enter
tainmen
t
Leaders
hip
Averag
e0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
DelphiAverage
How much control do our HSUK2020 towns have?
“..lively, diverse, intense cities contain the seeds of their own regeneration…”
How do you manage change?
RepositioningDr Steve Millington
ReinventingJohn Pal
RebrandingDr Mihalis Kavaratzis
RestructuringProfessor Deborah
Peel