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Transcript of 5 th February 2013 Cambridge University Scientific Society Cambridge Our Shared Destinies Within the...
5th February 2013
Cambridge University Scientific Society
Cambridge
Our Shared Destinies Within the Planet’s Boundaries
Professor Sir David King
Director, Cambridge Kaspakas
Senior Science Advisor, UBS
Chancellor, University of Liverpool
The Loess Plateau, China
Source: CSIRO
Loess Plateau
Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org
Total Population of the World in Billions
Source: IIASA
Middle Class*
*Middle class here defined as daily per capita spending of between $10 and $100 in PPP terms
Pop 2.1
Source: www.gapminder.org
Average Children per Woman 1960
Average Children per Woman 2011
Source: www.gapminder.org
• 1.8 billion middle-class consumers today
• 3 billion more middle-class consumers expected by 2030
• 90% of that growth coming from the Asia-Pacific region
Rising Middle Class
Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011
21st Century Challenges
Conflict and
terrorism
Water resource
Energy security and supply
Health and developmen
t
Food production
Climate change
Ecosystems
Minerals
Population – the driver
Conflict and
terrorism
Water resource
Energy security and supply
Food production
Climate change
Ecosystems
Minerals
Population – the driver
MGI Commodity Price Index (years 1999-2001=100)
Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011
Source: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images, Khaled El Fiqi/EPA
The Arab Spring
Source: 2030 Water Resources Group; Charting our future water needs. A new economic framework to decision making; Nov. 2009
Global Water Demand
Volume of conventional oil discovered
Volume of conventional oil consumed
Billion
s o
f b
arr
els
[G
b]
Year
50
40
30
20
10
2000198019601940
0
19201900 2020 2040 2060
Source: N.A. Owen, O.R. Inderwildi and D.A King, ‘The status of conventional world oil reserves - Hype or cause for concern?’ (2010) Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.026
Conventional Oil Supply and Demand
Forecasted demand 1.2% p.a. growth
Crude Oil Price versus Crude Oil Production from 1998 to present
Source: Murray, J. and King, D. (2012) Oil’s Tipping Point has Passed, Nature, Volume 481, 433-435
Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economies
Source: Z, Ebrahim O.R. Inderwildi, D.A. King, 2012: Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Volatility
Source: Chuquicamata in Chile
Copper Reserves
389 ppm
Interglacial period
Glacial period
Carbon dioxide
Temperature
Source: Fedorov et al. Science 2006, 312, 1485 Source: ML Design. From "The Complete Ice Age: How Climate Change Shaped the World" edited by Brian Fagan, Thames & Hudson Ltd., London, 2009
60 million years ago
40 million
20 million 0.5 million
Present
175ppm
200ppm
275ppm
250ppm
Carb
on
d
ioxid
e
2.5 million
2 million
1 million1.5 million
5
4
3
2
1
0
225ppm
3 million
400,000 years ago 300,000 200,000 100,000 Present
Tem
pera
tur e
0ºC
-2ºC
-4ºC
-6ºC
-8ºC
-300ppm
-325ppm
δ1
8 0
(p
pt)
Tem
pera
tur e
Observed Global Temperatures
Sea Level and Temperature Measurements
Source: Met Office & Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Liverpool
European Temperatures 1900 – 2100
Source: Hadley Centre
Destruction of forests
Source: World Research Institute
Protection Areas
CAPE COD
Source: U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service
Collective response
Global governance
Sustainable consumption
The Paradigm Shift
A Twenty First Century Renaissance
Source: Kate Roworth 2012, Oxfam
Planetary Boundaries
Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps
Timeline of Climate Change Action
20301990 2000 2010 2020
1992 UNFCCC formation
1997 Kyoto
Protocol
2001 Marrakesh –
Kyoto Protocol implementation
rules agreed
2005 Kyoto
Protocol enters
into force 2012 Kyoto I
ends2010
Cancun Agreement
2009 Copenhagen
Accord
National and Regional
Commitments
Global Process
First A
ccor
d Com
mitm
ent
perio
d fo
r 76
natio
ns
2009
100
head
s of s
tate
s at
Copen
hage
n
2003 UK
unilaterally declares
60% emissions reduction target for
2050
2004 UK Internal
ETS established
2005 European
Union adoption of
the ETS
2005 Gleneagles G8+5National:
UN:
2008
UK Clim
ate
Chang
e Act
2011 Durban Platform
National Actions on Climate Change
Annex I countries are rated based on submissions pertinent to the Cancun Agreements. ‘Very good’: meet IPCC recommendations, Annex I: 25 - 40% reduction by 2020, Non-Annex I: submitted NAMA, 15-30% below BAU
by 2020, or vocal in pressing for action.
Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps
National Action: Rwanda
Historical Development of Advanced Economies
Imported goods
Innovation
Science, Technology, Engineering
Manufacturing
Offshore Manufacturing
Smart green advanced
manufacturing sector
Innovation
Science, Technology, Engineering
Emergence of Smart Green Advanced Manufacturing Sector
“Circular Economy”
Source: Ellen MacArthur Foundation
Transport Substitution
Source: Future of Mobility Roadmap, Smith School.
Personal Urban Mobility
left: Gordon Murray Design T25 right: C. Borroni-Bird (GM) in O.R. Inderwildi & D.A. Kind (Eds.), ‘Energy, Transport & the Environment, Springer 2012
Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV)
Source: Dr. Nam Pyo Suh, KAIST
People vs. Cars: Bogota
Source: Courtesy of Enrique Penalosa
Source: Hybrid Lighter Than Air Craft 2012
Hybrid Airship
The International FusionProject: ITER
Source: Culham Centre for Fusion Energy
Plastic photovoltaics
Richard Friend
Source: Cambridge University under a programme supported by the EPSRC and the Carbon Trust
Progress in China
• 2003 - Scientific Outlook on Development put forward
• 2005 - Bureau took climate change seriously – limiting fossil fuel in
their development
• 2012 - 15th November – Changed their constitution
Ecosystem Rehabilitation: China’s Loess Plateau
Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org
1997 2005
‘Unsustainable Boom’ Equitable wealth distributionInstabilities due to resource scarcity
‘Renaissance World’Good use of technology
Behavioural transitionAccounting for
common good
‘The Frog Boiler ’Degraded planetary systemResource scarcity
‘Gates and Ghettoes’Only low level of the population achieves
well-beingSociety in reverse
State of Resources and Global Commons
Human Well-being
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being Scenarios
“It is, therefore, the manner and issue of consumption which are the real
tests of production … THERE IS NO WEALTH BUT LIFE. Life, including all
its powers of love, of joy, and of admiration.”
Source: John Ruskin, Unto this Last (1862)
Engagement with the Outside World
Interdisciplinary and Inter-Sectoral Information Sharing Hub
SectoralInterdisciplinary and
Intersectoral Information Sharing Hub