5 Asia Microstrategy
-
Upload
girishrajs -
Category
Documents
-
view
225 -
download
0
Transcript of 5 Asia Microstrategy
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
1/28
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
2/28
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
3/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 3
Performance attribution for the first 8 months of the year
If instead of returns we look at the change in USDMCap over the first 8 months, we can
attribute Asia ex-Japans aggregate performance to individual countries and sectors, allowing
us to identify the main performance drivers. The chart on the left shows how Taiwanand
India, which were among the group of best performing countries in the region, were also the
main contributors to Asia ex-Japans overall return. In contrast, China, Korea and HongKongunderperformed Asia ex-Japan as a whole. Together these five countries accounted for
77% of overall returns in the first 8 months of the year. Of course, this is in part due to the
relative size of these markets, as weighted by MSCI. (See theAppendixMSCI weightsfor
more details.)
The chart on the right shows a return attribution for GICS sectors. We find that ITand
Financialswere the biggest contributors to the overall change in MCap. If we add Telcos
and Energy, the top four sectors accounted for 83% of overall performance.
Fig 2 Contribution by countryto % USD MCap Fig 3 Contribution by sectorto % USD MCap
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Asia ex-JapanValuations
The PER history chartsshow that multiples for China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia
were flat/down between January and August, whereas multiples for India, Thailand, Indonesia
and the Philippines were up. Taiwanwas the only country to see multiples contract and
Koreathe only developed Asian country to see multiples expand. The TSR comp chart on the
previous page suggested this reflects changes in consensus EPS rather than a de-/re-rating.
Fig 4 Stagnant multiples Fig 5 Expanding multiples until recently
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
MSCI AC Asia ex JP MSCI ChinaMSCI Hong Kong MSCI TaiwanMSCI Korea MSCI Singapore
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
MSCI South East Asia MSCI IndiaMSCI Malaysia MSCI ThailandMSCI Indonesia MSCI Philippines
August August
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
4/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 4
Asia ex-Japan and South East Asia earnings outlook
The worm charts below show Asia ex-Japan achieved consistent revenue growth post-GFC
(on the left), but contracting margins mean this did not translate one-to-one into EPSg (on the
right): Whereas revenues grew by an average 12.8% between 2010 and 2014E, EPS only
rose by 4% CAGR.
Fig 6 Revenue worm chartMSCI Asia ex-Japan Fig 7 EPS worm chartMSCI Asia ex-Japan
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
The worm charts for MSCI South East Asia are worse than for Asia ex-Japan as a whole,
largely because 2013 revenue and EPS came in 5% and 10% below their respective 2012
numbers.
Fig 8 RevenueMSCI South East Asia Fig 9 EPSMSCI South East Asia
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
2,500,000
3,500,000
4,500,000
5,500,000
6,500,000
7,500,000
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
19.0
24.0
29.0
34.0
39.0
44.0
49.0
54.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
350,000
450,000
550,000
650,000
750,000
850,000
950,000
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
29.0
34.0
39.0
44.0
49.0
54.0
59.0
64.0
69.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2014E revenue up160% on 2008
2014E EPS up96% on 2008
but only 4% EPSCAGR 2010-14E
and12.5% revenueCAGR 2010-14E
2014E revenue up93% on 2008
2014E EPS up57% on 2008
but only 2.4% EPSCAGR 2010-14E and
no growth 2011-2014E
and 9% revenueCAGR 2010-14E
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
5/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 5
Country earnings outlook summary
The below charts summarize the change in EPS since 2008 and the 2010-2014E EPS CAGR
for the countries in Asia ex-Japan. (The corresponding EPS worm charts are shown in the
AppendixEPS worm charts.)
Taiwanstands out in the chart on the left as the country with the biggest recovery in EPS
since 2008, but this is because earnings in its tech sector (and particularly semiconductors)were badly hit during the GFC. A look at the worm chart in the appendix confirms that most of
the recovery in consensus earnings expectations had already happened by 2010, and that
Taiwan experienced a marked slowdown in earnings in 2011 and 2012. This is reflected in
the below average EPS CAGR for 2010-2014E in the chart on the right.
In the chart on the right Koreastands out with negative EPSg between 2010 and 2014E,
whereas India, Indonesiaand thePhilippineshave the highest 2010-2014E EPS CAGR.
Fig 10 EPS since 2008Asia ex-Japan Fig 11 2010-14E EPS CAGRAsia ex-Japan
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
.
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150%
MSCI Philippines
MSCI Indonesia
MSCI India
MSCI Thailand
MSCI Malaysia
MSCI Singapore
MSCI Korea
MSCI Taiwan
MSCI Hong Kong
MSCI China
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
MSCI Philippines
MSCI Indonesia
MSCI India
MSCI Thailand
MSCI Malaysia
MSCI Singapore
MSCI Korea
MSCI Taiwan
MSCI Hong Kong
MSCI China
Consensus expects
India, Indo nesia and
the Phi l ipp ines to
achieve EPS grow th
of 8-10% on average
ov er 2010- 2014E
Taiwan, Singapore
and K orea are
expected to see
average EPSg o f
less than 3% over
the same period
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
6/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 6
2014E and 2015E earnings outlook
The below charts show how consensus earnings expectations for 2014E and 2015E have
changed over the past 15-18 months.
The first couple of charts show the marked contrast in the direction of change in consensus
earnings for Taiwanand Korea. Whereas Taiwan saw consensus expectations raised
consistently since the start of 2014, Koreas earnings outlook has been cut consistently anddramatically. As a result, Taiwans 2014E and 2015E EPS are now respectively 7ppt and 5ppt
above where consensus expectations were in March and June 2013, whereas Koreas are
32ppt and 29ppt below.
If we were to look at the revenue and EBITDA worm charts for Taiwan (not shown), we would
see that revenue for Taiwan has increased steadily since 2010, but that the real driver of EPS
growth has been expanding margins. In contrast, the revenue and EBITDA worm charts for
Korea (also not shown) show zero revenue growth in 2014E and declining EBITDA.
Fig 12 Change in 2014E consensus EPS expectations Fig 13 Change in 2015E consensus EPS expectations
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
The stand-out performers in the TSR comp chart for the year to the end of August (Fig 1)
were Thailand, India, Indonesia andthePhilippines. These countries also had among the
highest 2010-2014E EPS CAGR (Fig 11). But as already seen (Fig 8-9), South East Asia was
the region that saw the biggest cuts to 2014E and 2015E EPS. The charts on this page
confirm the picture: India (in the charts above) saw EPS cuts in line with Asia ex-Japan, but
Thailand (2014E EPS down 20ppt; 2015E 16ppt) and Indonesia (-14ppt for 2014E and -10ppt
for 2015E) saw big cuts in consensus EPS expectations. The Philippines is the exception.
Fig 14 Change in 2014E consensus EPS expectations Fig 15 Change in 2015E consensus EPS expectations
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
-12
7
-32
-10
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
MSCI AC Asia ex JP MSCI TaiwanMSCI Korea MSCI India
Some text
-11
5
-29
-7
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
MSCI AC Asia ex JP MSCI TaiwanMSCI Korea MSCI India
-20
-11
-14
-1
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
MSCI South East Asia MSCI ThailandMSCI Malaysia MSCI IndonesiaMSCI Philippines
-16
-6
-10
3
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
MSCI South East Asia MSCI Thailand
MSCI Malaysia MSCI Indonesia
MSCI Philippines
Dramat ic cuts in
2014E and 2015E
consensus EPS
expectat ions for
Korea contrast
sharp ly with
increased
expectat ions for
Taiwan
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
7/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 7
If we look at China and Hong Kong, we see that 2014E and 2015E earnings expectations
were pared back considerably less than for Asia ex-Japan as a whole. The same applies to
Singapores 2014E EPS, with the outlook for 2015E more in line with the region as a whole.
Fig 16 Change in 2014E consensus EPS expectations Fig 17 Change in 2015E consensus EPS expectations
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
The impact of these changes in consensus earnings expectations on 2015E EPSg is shown
in the chart on the left below. Interestingly, despite the significant improvementin outlook for
Taiwanseen in Figs 12-13, the current consensus 2015E EPSg is a relatively modest 7%.
The chart on the right confirms that this is less than 4ppt above the 2010-2014E EPS CAGR.
In contrast, despite the significant deteriorationin outlook for Korea, 2015E EPSg currently
stands at ~14%, a marked reversal from the 2010-2014E EPS CAGR of -1%.
Thailand, India, Indonesia and thePhilippinesare currently all also expected to see EPS
growth of more than 12% in 2015E, which in the case of Thailand and India is a markedacceleration from the EPS CAGR achieved during 2010-2014E, as shown in the chart on the
right.
Fig 18 2015E EPS growthAsia ex-Japan Fig 19 2015E EPSg minus 2010-2014E EPS CAGR
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
-12
-5
-1
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
MSCI AC Asia ex JP MSCI China
MSCI Hong Kong MSCI Singapore
-11
-5
-3
-9
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
MSCI AC Asia ex JP MSCI China
MSCI Hong Kong MSCI Singapore
0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 16.0%
MSCI Philippines
MSCI Indonesia
MSCI India
MSCI Thailand
MSCI Malaysia
MSCI Singapore
MSCI Korea
MSCI Taiwan
MSCI Hong Kong
MSCI China
0 4 8 12 16
MSCI Philippines
MSCI Indonesia
MSCI India
MSCI Thailand
MSCI Malaysia
MSCI Singapore
MSCI Korea
MSCI Taiwan
MSCI Hong Kong
MSCI China
The dif ference
between consensus
expectat ions for
2015E EPSg and th e
2010-2014E EPS
CAGR is greatest for
Ko rea, Thailand ,
India and Singapore
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
8/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 8
What has changed and why?The TSR comp chart below shows the distribution of returns since the end of August 2014.
We see a marked difference to the picture in the first 8 months of the year, with markets
correcting globally. Regionally, we see Asia ex-Japanperformed in line with MSCI World
and S&P 500, whereas South East Asiasaw a smaller drop.
We see that Korea andTaiwan underperformed, whereas India, Thailand, Indonesiaand
the Philippinesheld up better. Koreastands out as the only country in the region that saw a
meaningful deterioration in earnings outlook, which is highly unusual over a seven week
period, as short-term performance is usually dominated by changes in PER multiple.
Fig 20 TSR comparison (since the start of September)
Source: Macquarie Research, October 2014
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
-1
1
0
-7
0
2
1
1
1
1
0
3
2
-8
-8
-6
-5
-7
-4
-9
-9
-7
-5
-6
-4
-2
-5
-3
-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4
MSCI AC World
S&P 500
MSCI AC Asia ex JP
MSCI South East Asia
MSCI Japan
MSCI Korea
MSCI Taiwan
MSCI China
MSCI Singapore
MSCI Hong Kong
MSCI Malaysia
MSCI India
MSCI Thailand
MSCI Indonesia
MSCI Philippines
Div EPS PER TSR
The global sell-off
a lso took i ts to l l in
Asia ex-Japan, but
Korea and Taiwanunderper formed; for
Taiwan this was a
reversal from the
f i rst 8 months of the
year
As in the f i rst 8
mon ths o f 2014,
India, Thailan d,
Indonesia and the
Phi l ipp ines
cont inued to
outp erform, seeing
smal ler losses than
other countr ies in
the region
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
9/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 9
If we again look at the change in MCap in USD terms, we can attribute 80% of the overall
change over the past seven weeks to four countries(Korea, Taiwan and HK/China) and
four sectors(IT, Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Energy).
Fig 21 Contribution by countryto % USD MCap Fig 22 Contribution by sectorto % USD MCap
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Similarly, if we breakdown regional sector performance by country, we find that the bulk of the
change in USD MCap since the end of August for Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Materials,
and IT at the regional level, can be explained by three or four country sectors.
Fig 23 Contribution to change in MCap since the end of August by regional and country sector
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Four countr ies and
four regional sectors
accou nted for 80% of
the drop in USD MCap
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
10/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 10
And if we cross reference the key countries and key sectors, we find that IT, Consumer
Discretionary andFinancials accounted for76%of the overall drop in MCap in Korea(chart
on the left), whereas IT, Financials andMaterialsaccounted for 87% of the drop inTaiwan
(chart on the right). In HK/China Financials, Energy, Telcos and Consumer Discretionary
explain ~90%of the market reversal since the end of August.
Fig 24 Korea3 sectors explain 76% of total drop Fig 25 Taiwan3 sectors explain 86% of total drop
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Of course, country sector performance does not necessarily match regional sector
performance. The chart below shows considerable differences in country-level performance
for Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Materials, and IT.
For example, we saw on the previous page that within Energy, three countries (China, India
and Korea) accounted for ~90% of regional sector performance since the end of August. But
the chart below shows that Energy in India and Thailand performed considerably less badlythan Energy in China, Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Similarly within Materials, we saw on the previous page that four countries account for 90+%
of overall regional sector performance over the past seven weeks. But only Korean Materials
underperformed the region as a whole. The same applies to IT: Korea, Taiwan, China and
India together account for 100% of regional sector performance, but whereas India IT was flat
over the period, Korea IT underperformed.
To understand the recent sell-off, we therefore need to identify the key underperforming
country sectors.
Fig 26 % change in USD MCap by regional and country sector since the end of August
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
-18
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
-28%
-24%
-20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
11/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 11
Dissecting the sell-off
Before we identify the key underperforming country sectors, we should consider how the sell-
off progressed over the past 7 weeks. The charts below show the change in USD MCap since
the end of August up to 16 September, 1 October and last Fridays close, respectively .
The firstthing to observe is that some regional sectors, such as Consumer Discretionary ,
Energy and IT performed badly in most countries, relative to other regional sectors, such asHealth Care, Telcos and Utilities. Secondly, in most cases country sector performance went
from bad to worse as the sell-off progressed, with the notable exception of Hong Kong
Consumer Discretionary, which improved since 1 October. Thirdly, countries like Taiwan,
Korea and Malaysia underperformed across country sectors, whereas Thailand and the
Philippines generally held up better.
The third observation raises the possibility that the sell-off may have become indiscriminate.
Does it make sense, for example, for Korean Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financials,
Industrials, IT, Materials and Telcos to have underperformed peers in the region? Is that
solely due to the depreciating KRW?
Fig 27 % change in USD MCap by country sectorEnd of August to 16 September 2014
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Fig 28 % change in USD MCap by country sectorEnd of August to 1 October 2014
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Fig 29 % change in USD MCap by country sectorEnd of August to 17 October 2014
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Cons. Discretionary Cons. Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials IT Materials Telcos Utilities
Korea -5.9% -3.4% -5.1% -3.6% 4.6% -2.4% -5.1% -0.6% 5.3% -0.9%
China -4.7% -1.8% -6.5% -0.7% 5.4% 0.3% -4.4% -1.0% -1.7% -2.2%
Taiwan -4.1% -3.7% -3.4% -2.5% -5.8% -3.2% -4.3% -3.7% -5.0%
Hong Kong -9.6% -1.8% -8.1% -0.5% 25.6% 1.1% -0.6% 0.9% -1.2% -0.9%
Singapore -6.2% -2.9% -2.9% -3.1% -3.7%
Malaysia -4.0% -3.9% 0.1% -2.7% -0.4% -3.2% -3.5% -2.5% -1.6%
India -10.8% 2.6% -3.6% -2.9% -0.3% -2.9% 0.2% -1.0% 3.8% -2.4%
Indonesia -2.5% 1.0% -5.8% -2.5% -2.5% -7.6% -3.7% 2.3% 0.3%
Thailand -4.8% -3.5% 2.4% -1.6% -7.1% -1.9% 1.3% 3.9% 3.6%
Philippines 4.4% 5.2% 12.9% 1.2% 81.4% 12.4%
Cons. Discretionary Cons. Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials IT Materials Telcos Utilities
Korea -16.8% -3.0% -18.3% -10.9% 7.4% -7.7% -9.4% -11.4% 2.1% 7.9%
China -6.6% -1.8% -9.7% -5.2% 6.5% -1.7% -8.9% -6.7% -1.2% -8.8%
Taiwan -4.4% -6.2% -5.0% -6.3% 0.4% -7.5% -7.1% -7.2% -5.1%
Hong Kong -15.4% -8.7% -14.4% -6.3% 23.7% -4.0% -1.9% -5.6% -7.2% -5.0%
Singapore -6.6% -5.6% -3.7% -4.5% -4.8%
Malaysia -6.4% -6.4% -2.2% -4.3% -1.0% -5.0% -4.2% -2.3% -3.1%
India -10.5% 2.2% -8.2% -4.0% 4.9% -8.3% 6.4% -6.5% 0.3% -3.5%
Indonesia -5.3% -0.5% -11.5% 0.1% -2.7% -10.1% -11.6% 2.3% -1.9%
Thailand -0.2% -4.8% 3.0% -9.9% -6.1% -0.4% -1.5% 5.9% 5.4%
Philippines 4.1% 10.6% 14.6% 1.4% 64.3% 19.9%
Cons. Discretionary Cons. Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials IT Materials Telcos Utilities
Korea -23.9% -5.1% -18.3% -11.9% -1.6% -14.5% -15.0% -16.4% -10.9% 4.0%
China -8.8% -3.7% -13.8% -4.4% 7.8% -2.6% -11.1% -8.5% -3.5% -9.4%
Taiwan -10.8% -11.5% -11.5% -9.1% -0.9% -11.9% -10.4% -12.6% -3.6%
Hong Kong -10.4% -7.9% -20.0% -3.8% 24.9% -3.8% -5.4% -4.0% -5.8% -1.3%
Singapore -9.3% -8.8% -6.3% -9.3% -7.9%
Malaysia -11.0% -10.4% -16.5% -8.4% -5.2% -6.8% -6.5% -1.5% -4.4%
India -15.1% -0.7% -7.9% -5.3% -2.4% -7.6% -0.1% -12.7% -2.5% -2.5%
Indonesia -10.8% -0.3% -24.2% -1.1% -1.6% -19.7% -6.4% 1.5% -3.8%
Thailand -5.4% -5.1% -2.8% -14.0% -8.5% -3.9% -7.0% 4.5% 7.7%Philippines -2.1% 6.2% 9.6% -3.8% 68.6% 11.4%
The sell-off
accelerated and
spread across the
region from early
September, raisingthe possib i l i ty of
indiscr iminate
sel l ing
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
12/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 12
Identifying the key underperforming country sectors
Looking across the region we find 10 country sectors account for two-thirds of the move
down in Asia ex-Japan USD MCap since the end of August(see the chart on the left).
Of course, the contribution to regional performance depends on two factors: a country
sectors MSCI investable market cap weight in MSCI Asia ex-Japan and the sectors
performance. HK and China Financials, for example, show up in the list of key countrysectors by virtue of their size: their USD MCap down is only around 4% since the end of
August, i.e. by less than half as much as the region as a whole.
The remaining 8 country sectors, however, underperformed Asia ex-Japan as a whole(see
chart on the right), accounting for 60% of the drop in USD MCap for Asia ex-Japan. The
prevalence of 5 Korean sectors among these 8 is striking. These warrant a closer look.
Fig 30 Country sector contribution to change in Asiaex-Japan USD MCap since the end of August
Fig 31 Key country sectors that underperformed Asiaex-Japan since the end of August in USD terms
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
The TSR comparison chartsbelow are based on Macquaries coverage universe.1They
illustrate that the recent sell-off in Korean Materialsand Korean ITis a continuation of
downward moves during the first 8 months of the year. For the others, notably Taiwan and
HK/China IT, the last 7 weeks are a reversal from the first 8 months of 2014.
Fig 32 TSR comparison (8 months to end of August) Fig 33 TSR comparison (since start of September)
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
1The difference in performance for Korean Industrials vs the Fig 50 is largely attributable to the
absence of Hyundai Heavy Industries from Macquaries coverage universe.
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2-1
0
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
China IT
Taiwan IT
KR Financials
KR Industrials
Korea IT
China Energy
KR Materials
KR Cons. Discr.
Asia ex-Japan
0
0
3
0
2
3
0
0
-3
-21
-8
-20
0
25
22
-7
7
6
17
16
7
0
-3
18
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25
Korea - Discretionary
Korea - Materials
HK/CN - Energy
Korea - IT
Korea - Banks
Taiwan - IT
HK/CN - IT
Korea - Industrials
Div EPS PER TSR
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
-3
1
-1
-17
-1
2
5
3
-15
-16
-17
7
-10
-11
-14
-5
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Korea - Discretionary
Korea - Materials
HK/CN - Energy
Korea - IT
Korea - Banks
Taiwan - IT
HK/CN - IT
Korea - Industrials
Div EPS PER TSR
8 country sectors
accoun t for 60% of
the overall drop in
USD MCap 5 of
these are Korean
Korean IT is the only
key country sector to
see major cuts in
consensus EPS cuts
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
13/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 13
Koreas underperforming sectorsKorea IT
Korean IT was the only sector that saw consensus earnings cut and PER multiples expand
over the past seven weeks. Samsung Electronicswas, of course, the main culprit, followed
by Samsung SDI, SK Hynix and LG Display. As the Returns Analyserand EPS wormcharts below illustrate, EPS cuts have accelerated recently and the offset in terms of multiple
expansion has become less, suggesting EPSg and ROE are expected to remain lower than
previously thought. The 12m forward PER multiple currently stands at ~10x, which is above
the 4 year average, but still within 1 standard deviation (SD).
Fig 34 Returns Analyser Fig 35 EPS worm chart
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Korea Consumer Discretionary
As Macquarie analyst Michael Sohn spelled in his reportKorean autos - Opportunity cost of
US$10bnfrom 6 October 2014, Hyundai Motor Groups acquisition of the KEPCO site in
Gangnam for USD10bn reduced 2015E ROE for HMG, Kia and Hyundai Mobis by an average
2.6ppt. The Returns Analysershows this de-rating and the 12m forward PER multiple now
stands at just below 8x, below the 4 year average (
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
14/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 14
Fig 38 Earnings Analyser Fig 39 Growth
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
KoreaMaterials
The Returns Analyserand EPS worm chartsconfirm that the earnings outlook for Korean
Materialshas been bleak for several years. Consensus 2015E EPSg currently stands at
27%, which is a delta of 40ppt vs the 2010-2014E EPS CAGR of -13%. The 16% drop in PER
multiple over the past seven weeks suggests the market expects lower commodity prices will
shortly be reflected in lower earnings expectations. The sectors PBV multiple currently
stands at ~0.9x, which is 1SD below the 4 year average.
Fig 40 Returns Analyser Fig 41 EPS worm chart
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Sales EBITDA margin Depr & Amort
Net interest Associates Other
Tax rate Other post-tax Dilution
Macquarie
estimates
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
EPS (RHS) Sales growth
EBITDA growth EPS growth
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%140%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%140%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
EPS PER DivFX $ TSR TSR
27.0
37.0
47.0
57.0
67.0
77.0
87.0
97.0
107.0
117.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
15/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 15
KoreaIndustrials
The Returns Analyserand EPS worm chartsfor Korean Industrialspossibly look even
worse than for Korean Materials. Consistent and dramatic cuts in earnings expectations have
resulted in a PER multiple that reached 11x at the end of September, 2.5SD above the 4 year
average. The in this context more useful PBV multiple currently stands at ~1x, which is also
at the upper end of the 3-year trading range. EPS may have bottomed in 2013, butconsensus 2015E EPSg estimates currently stand at 16%, which is a delta of 27ppt
compared to the 2010-2014E EPS CAGR.
Fig 42 Returns Analyser Fig 43 PER history
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
KoreaBanks
The EPS worm chartshows that after several years of consensus EPS expectations beinglowered, there was recently a brief uptick in the earnings outlook for 2014E. The Returns
Analysershows that the market offset past earnings cuts through PER multiples expansion,
but as we saw in the TSR comp chart above (Fig 33), over recent weeks the PER multiple
has contracted by 10%. This reversal is probably at least in part attributable to the realisation
that positive sentiment related to a government policy aimed at increasing dividend payments
was unwarranted, at least as far as Korean banks was concerned, because all but two (KB
Financial and Woori) lack the wherewithal to increase payouts. The sectors PB multiple
remains at a lowly 0.6x, which is only slightly below the 4 year average.
Fig 44 Returns Analyser Fig 45 EPS worm chart
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
EPS PER DivFX $ TSR TSR
13.0
18.0
23.0
28.0
33.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%50%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
EPS PER DivFX $ TSR TSR
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
16/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 16
Screening for potential downsideValue tends to underperform vs defensives when volatility suddenly rises, and vs cyclicals
when a sudden spike in volatility reverses. Given their performance over the past few weeks,
this could mean that IT in Taiwan and Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Materials in
Korea could outperform if markets bounce back.
At this stage though we are more concerned with avoiding potential falling knives. We applied
four filters to the Macquarie universe to screen for stocks that:
Outperformed MSCI Asia ex-Japan
Trade at a PER that is 2SD above the 4 year average
Have 2015E EPSg that exceeds the 2010-2014E EPS CAGR by more than 10ppt
Negative upside to our current target price
This yields the following list of 8 stocks for which could offer potential downside should doubts
about the global growth and inflation outlook continue to grow:
Fig 46 Screening for downsideexposed companies
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Return Upside 2010-2014E 2015E
Name BBG code Country Macq rating since August Macq TP EPS CAGR EPSg ?EPSg PE PE z PB PB z
ABB India ABB IN IN Underperform 1.3% -49% -7% 52% 59% 63.5 2.2 7.8 2.3
Bangkok Hospital BCH TB TB Underperform -1.5% -18% 0% 21% 21% 32.9 2.5 5.4 1.8
Indian Oil IOCL IN IN Neutral 1.9% -16% -6% 14% 20% 11.7 2.2 1.2 1.0
Uni-President China 220 HK HK Neutral -0.3% -14% 4% 17% 13% 34.4 2.9 2.3 0.0
Singapore Airlines SIA SP SP Underperform -4.5% -9% -22% 29% 51% 26.7 2.1 0.9 -0.9
IOI Corp IOI MK MK Neutral -3.6% -6% -9% 5% 14% 21.2 1.9 4.3 2.4
Hero Motocorp HMCL IN IN Neutral 10.3% -4% 6% 25% 19% 18.3 2.2 7.7 0.7
Thai Stanley STANLY TB TB Neutral -3.5% -2% 0% 12% 12% 11.7 2.1 1.4 -0.3
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
17/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 17
AppendixGlobal ContextGlobal performance and valuations
The price index and TSR (Total Shareholder Return) comparison chartsbelow show
MSCI Worldreturned 49%, including an 8% dividend yield between the start of July 2012 and
the end of August 2014. The S&P 500slightly outperformed over the same period with a 54%return, incl. 7% div yield, whereas Europeslightly underperformed (44% TSR, incl. 10% div).
Japanwas of course the standout outperformer with a 73% return (incl.7% div), whereas
Asia ex-Japanwas the clear laggard, returning only 32% (incl. 8% div).
Fig 47 Price index comparison Fig 48 TSR comp (start July 2012end August 2014)
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
The TSR comparison chartabove suggests PER expansionplayed a key role in S&P 500
and Europes outperformance of Asia ex-Japan, and the PER historyand PERcharts
below confirm that PER multiples rose by a third (4 points) for the S&P 500 and ~40% for
Europe (3.6 points). In contrast, the PER multiple for Japan, Asia ex-Japan and South East
Asia expanded by only ~15% (or 1.3, 1.5 and 1.7 points respectively) over the same period.
Fig 49 PER history comparison Fig 50 PER (start July 2012end August 2014)
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
90
110
130
150
170
190
90
110
130
150
170
190
Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
MSCI AC World MSCI AC Asia ex JPMSCI Europe S&P 500MSCI Japan MSCI South East Asia
8
7
10
7
8
8
10
14
-4
48
9
3
31
33
39
17
15
15
-20 0 20 40 60 80
MSCI AC World
S&P 500
MSCI Europe
MSCI Japan
MSCI AC Asia ex JP
MSCI South East Asia
Div EPS PER TSR
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
MSCI AC World MSCI AC Asia ex JPMSCI Europe S&P 500MSCI Japan MSCI South East Asia
0 1 2 3 4
MSCI South East Asia
MSCI AC Asia ex JP
MSCI Japan
MSCI Europe
S&P 500
MSCI AC World
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
18/28
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
19/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 19
Earnings outlook summary
The below charts summarize the findings from the worm charts above. The first set illustrates
how the improvement in Japans earnings outlook since the GFC stands in marked contrast to
the lack of improvement in Europe. Also noticeable is that although the earnings outlook for
Asia ex-Japan improved more since 2008 than earnings for S&P 500 (EPS up 99% for Asia
ex-JP vs 63% for S&P 500), the 2010-14E EPS CAGR is less than half as big (4% vs 9%).The lower CAGR is attributable to a slowdown in EPSg in 2011-2012; both S&P 500 and Asia
ex-Japan are currently expected to see EPS growth of around 10% in 2014E.
Fig 55 EPS since 2008Regional comparison Fig 56 2010-14E EPS CAGRRegional comparison
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
2014E and 2015E global earnings outlook
The below charts show how consensus earnings expectations for 2014E and 2015E havechanged over the past 15-18 months. Japan stands out as the one region that has seen
consensus EPS expectations upgradedby 9% for 2014E and by 3% for 2015E. The cuts in
expectations for S&P 500 (-5% for 2014E and -3% for 2015E) are also less than for MSCI
World as a whole. In contrast, Europe and South East Asia stand out as the regions which
saw the biggest cuts to the 2014E-2015E earnings outlook.
Fig 57 Change in 2014E consensus EPS expectations Fig 58 Change in 2015E consensus EPS expectations
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175%
MSCI South East Asia
MSCI AC Asia ex JP
MSCI Japan
MSCI Europe
S&P 500
MSCI AC World
-2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5%
MSCI South East Asia
MSCI AC Asia ex JP
MSCI Japan
MSCI Europe
S&P 500
MSCI AC World
-10
-16
-5
9
-19-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
MSCI AC World MSCI AC Asia ex JPMSCI Europe S&P 500MSCI Japan MSCI South East Asia
-7
-11
-3
3
-16-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
MSCI AC World MSCI AC Asia ex JPMSCI Europe S&P 500MSCI Japan MSCI South East Asia
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
20/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 20
The chart on the left shows the impact of these cuts in expectations on the current outlook for
2015E EPS growth. Strikingly, all regions are expected to grow earnings by 10-12% in 2015E,
with Europe expected to grow fastest. As the chart on the right suggests, current consensus
expectations for Europe stand in marked contrast to the growth achieved over the past 4
years. Similarly, the 2015E outlook for Asia ex-Japan and South East Asia anticipates an
increase in growth by 6-8ppt. The difference between 2015E EPSg and the 2010-2014E
CAGR for the US (+2.5ppt) and Japan (-2.5ppt) is clearly considerably smaller.
Fig 59 2015E EPS growthRegional comparison Fig 60 2015E EPSg minus 2010-2014E EPS CAGR
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Global Returns Analysers
Returns Analysersshow TSR decompositions in a time series and on a 12m rolling basis.
They provide historic context and clearly illustrate that in addition to multiple expansion, both
MSCI World and S&P 500 have seen consistent support from improving consensus earningsexpectations. They also show how USD returns for MSCI World were inflated by USD
depreciation in 2011, but deflated by USD appreciation in 2013. The last two observations in
the chart on the left, illustrate the effect on returns of the USDs recent appreciation.
Fig 61 Returns AnalyserMSCI AC World Fig 62 Returns AnalyserS&P 500
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0%
MSCI South East Asia
MSCI AC Asia ex JP
MSCI Japan
MSCI Europe
S&P 500
MSCI AC World
-4 0 4 8 12 16
MSCI South East Asia
MSCI AC Asia ex JP
MSCI Japan
MSCI Europe
S&P 500
MSCI AC World
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
EPS PER DivFX $ TSR TSR
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
EPS PER DivFX $ TSR TSR
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
21/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 21
The contrast between the Returns Analysersfor Europe and Japan could hardly be starker:
Where Europes rally since mid-2012 was driven entirely by multiple expansion, Japans rally
saw significant support from improving earnings expectations. The Returns Analyserfor
Europe also shows how EUR appreciation inflated YoY returns in USD terms during most of
2014, and how this reversed as the EUR depreciated over the last few weeks. In contrast, the
Returns Analyserfor Japan shows how Yen weakness deflated USD returns during 2013.
Fig 63 Returns AnalyserMSCI Europe Fig 64 Returns AnalyserMSCI Japan
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
The Returns Analysersfor Asia ex-Japan and South East Asia below show South East Asia
outperformed Asia ex-Japan from mid-2012 to mid-2013 (Draghi to Bernanke) due to multiple
expansion and despite the absence of improvement in earnings expectations. Following
Bernankes announcement of QE tapering in June 2013, we see depreciation vs USD
deflated 12m rolling USD returns.
Fig 65 Returns AnalyserMSCI AC Asia ex JP Fig 66 Returns AnalyserMSCI South East Asia
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
EPS PER DivFX $ TSR TSR
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
EPS PER DivFX $ TSR TSR
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
EPS PER DivFX $ TSR TSR
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
EPS PER DivFX $ TSR TSR
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
22/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 22
AppendixEPS worm charts
Fig 67 EPS worm chartMSCI China Fig 68 EPS worm chartMSCI Hong Kong
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Fig 69 EPS worm chartMSCI Taiwan Fig 70 EPS worm chartMSCI Korea
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Fig 71 EPS worm chartMSCI Singapore Fig 72 EPS worm chartMSCI Malaysia
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
380.0
480.0
580.0
680.0
780.0
880.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4.0
9.0
14.0
19.0
24.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
23.0
33.0
43.0
53.0
63.0
73.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
22.0
27.0
32.0
37.0
42.0
47.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
23/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 23
Fig 73 EPS worm chartMSCI Thailand Fig 74 EPS worm chartMSCI India
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Fig 75 EPS worm chartMSCI Indonesia Fig 76 EPS worm chartMSCI Philippines
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Fig 77 EPS since 2008Asia ex-Japan Fig 78 2010-14E EPS CAGRAsia ex-Japan
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
17.0
22.0
27.0
32.0
37.0
42.0
47.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
29.0
34.0
39.0
44.0
49.0
54.0
59.0
64.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
180.0
230.0
280.0
330.0
380.0
430.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
29.0
34.0
39.0
44.0
49.0
54.0
59.0
64.0
69.0
Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150%
MSCI Philippines
MSCI Indonesia
MSCI India
MSCI Thailand
MSCI Malaysia
MSCI Singapore
MSCI Korea
MSCI Taiwan
MSCI Hong Kong
MSCI China
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
MSCI Philippines
MSCI Indonesia
MSCI India
MSCI Thailand
MSCI Malaysia
MSCI Singapore
MSCI Korea
MSCI Taiwan
MSCI Hong Kong
MSCI China
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
24/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 24
AppendixCurrency fluctuationsThe first set of charts below shows how the KRW, MYR, IDR, THB and INR appreciated vs
the USD during the first 8 months of the year.
Fig 79 MSCI Asia USD MCap by country Fig 80 MSCI Asia investment factor by country
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
The second set of charts illustrates the effect of the strengthening USD over the past seven
weeks on the regions exchange rates, with KRW down 5pp and MYR, IDR and PHP down 3-
4ppt. Notice though how the IDR, INR and THB snapped back on Friday 17 October.
Fig 81 MSCI Asia USD investable MCap by country Fig 82 MSCI Asia USD investable MCap by sector
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1/01/2014 1/03/2014 1/05/2014 1/07/2014
KRWUSD MYRUSD IDRUSD PHPUSD
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1/01/2014 1/03/2014 1/05/2014 1/07/2014
SGDUSD THBUSD INRUSD
TWDUSD CNYUSD HKDUSD
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
29/08/2014
KRWUSD MYRUSD IDRUSD PHPUSD
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
29/08/2014
SGDUSD THBUSD INRUSD
TWDUSD CNYUSD HKDUSD
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
25/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 25
AppendixMSCI weights
Fig 83 MSCI Asia USD MCap by country Fig 84 MSCI Asia investment factor by country
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
Fig 85 MSCI Asia USD investable MCap by country Fig 86 MSCI Asia USD investable MCap by sector
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2014
10747
3358
2690
1119
907711
635 348 314 285 237
142
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Avg weighting
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5613
2578
762
555 276
383477 152
190 92 101 48
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% 5613
1469
924
831
774351
201 340
310 190 223
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
26/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 26
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New ZealandOutperformreturn >3% in excess of benchmark returnNeutralreturn within 3% of benchmark returnUnderperformreturn >3% below benchmark return
Benchmark return is determined by long term nominalGDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividendyield
MacquarieAsia/EuropeOutperformexpected return >+10%
Neutralexpected return from -10% to +10%Underperformexpected return +10%Neutralexpected return from -10% to +10%Underperformexpected return 5% in excess of benchmark returnNeutralreturn within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperformreturn >5% below benchmark return
Macquarie - USAOutperform (Buy)return >5% in excess of Russell3000 index returnNeutral (Hold)return within 5% of Russell 3000 indexreturnUnderperform (Sell)return >5% below Russell 3000index return
Volatility index definition*
This is calculated from the volatility of historicalprice movements.
Very highhighest riskStock should beexpected to move up or down 60100% in a year
investors should be aware this stock is highlyspeculative.
Highstock should be expected to move up ordown at least 4060% in a yearinvestors shouldbe aware this stock could be speculative.
Mediumstock should be expected to move upor down at least 3040% in a year.
Lowmediumstock should be expected tomove up or down at least 2530% in a year.
Lowstock should be expected to move up ordown at least 1525% in a year.* Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocksonly
Recommendations12 monthsNote:Quant recommendations may differ fromFundamental Analyst recommendations
Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the followingadjustments made:
Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision forcatastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expenseExcluded: non recurring items, asset revals, propertyrevals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &minority interests
EPS= adjusted net profit / efpowa*ROA= adjusted ebit / average total assetsROA Banks/Insurance= adjusted net profit /averagetotal assetsROE= adjusted net profit / average shareholders fundsGross cashflow= adjusted net profit + depreciation*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted averagenumber of shares
All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocksare modelled under IFRS (International FinancialReporting Standards).
Recommendation proportionsFor quarter ending 30 September 2014
AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUROutperform 48.73% 59.90% 35.63% 42.00% 60.28% 42.11% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.09% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)Neutral 33.76% 24.97% 39.08% 52.67% 36.17% 38.42% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.12% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)Underperform 17.52% 15.13% 25.29% 5.33% 3.55% 19.47% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.51% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Company-specific disclosures:
Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.
Analyst certification:The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of thecompensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. Theanalyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd ABN 94122 169 279 (AFSL No. 318062) (MGL) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain
independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.General disclaimers:Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets North AmericaLtd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd and its Taiwan branch; Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd;Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd; Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited; Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt Ltd; Macquarie Capital Securities(Malaysia) Sdn Bhd; Macquarie Securities Korea Limited and Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd are not authorized deposit-taking institutions for thepurposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia), and their obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie BankLimited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL) or MGL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of any of the abovementioned entities. MGL provides a guarantee to the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of the obligations and liabilities of Macquarie CapitalSecurities (Singapore) Pte Ltd for up to SGD 35 million. This research has been prepared for the general use of the wholesale clients of the MacquarieGroup and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use ordisclose the information in this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. Wedo not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. MGL hasestablished and implemented a conflicts policy at group level (which may be revised and updated from time to time) (the "Conflicts Policy") pursuant toregulatory requirements (including the FCA Rules) which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. Nothing inthis research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. In
preparing this research, we did not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Macquarie salespeople, tradersand other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions which are contrary to theopinions expressed in this research. Macquarie Research produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis,macro-economic analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ fromrecommendations contained in other types of research, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise. Before making aninvestment decision on the basis of this research, you need to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriatein light of your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securitiescan and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent ininternational investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value ofthe investment. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warrantythat it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subjectto change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liabili ty whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arisingfrom any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. Clients should contact analysts at, and execute transactionsthrough, a Macquarie Group entity in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. The date and timestamp for above share price andmarket cap is the closed price of the price date. #CLOSE is the final price at which the security is traded in the relevant exchange on the date indicated.Country-specific disclaimers:
Australia: In Australia, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd (AFSL No. 238947), a participating organisation of theAustralian Securities Exchange. New Zealand: In New Zealand, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd, a NZX Firm.Canada: In Canada, research is prepared, approved and distributed by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, a participating organisation of theToronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange & Montral Exchange. Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, accepts responsibility for the contents of reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd in the United Statesand sent to US persons. Any US person wishing to effect transactions in the securities described in the reports issued by Macquarie Capital MarketsCanada Ltd should do so with Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd. The Research Distribution Policy of Macquarie Capital Markets CanadaLtd is to allow all clients that are entitled to have equal access to our research. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, research is issued and
-
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
27/28
Macquarie Research Asia Microstrategy
20 October 2014 27
distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). Germany: InGermany, this research is issued and/or distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited, Niederlassung Deutschland, which is authorised andregulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). and in Germany by BaFin. France: In France, research is issued and distributed byMacquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). Hong Kong& Mainland China:In Hong Kong, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd, which is licensed and regulated by theSecurities and Futures Commission. In Mainland China, Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Shanghai Representative Office only engages in non-business operational activities excluding issuing and distributing research. Only non-A share research is distributed into Mainland China by MacquarieCapital Securities Ltd. Japan: In Japan, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited, a member of the TokyoStock Exchange, Inc. and Osaka Securities Exchange Co. Ltd (Financial Instruments Firm, Kanto Financial Bureau (kin-sho) No. 231, a member ofJapan Securities Dealers Association and The Financial Futures Association of Japan and Japan Investment Advisers Association). India:In India,research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. (CIN: U65920MH1995PTC090696), formerly known as MacquarieCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd., 92, Level 9, 2 North Avenue, Maker Maxity, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai400 051, India, which is a SEBI
registered stockbroker having membership with National Stock Exchange of India Limited (INB231246738) and BSE Limited (INB011246734).Malaysia: In Malaysia, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (Company registration number: 463469-W) which is a Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets Services License issued by the SecuritiesCommission. Taiwan: In Taiwan, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd, Taiwan Branch, which is licensed andregulated by the Financial Supervisory Commission. No portion of the report may be reproduced or quoted by the press or any other person withoutauthorisation from Macquarie. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product. Research Associate(s)in this report who are registered as Clerks only assist in the preparation of research and are not engaged in writing the research. Thailand: In Thailand,research is produced with the contribution of Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited, issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (Thailand)Ltd. Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd. is a licensed securities company that is authorized by the Ministry of Finance, regulated by the Securities andExchange Commission of Thailand and is an exchange member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Limited andKasikorn Securities Public Company Limited have entered into an exclusive strategic alliance agreement to broaden and deepen the scope of servicesprovided to each parties respective clients. The strategic alliance does not constitute a joint venture. The Thai Institute of Directors Association hasdisclosed the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies made pursuant to the policy of the Securities and Exchange Commission ofThailand. Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Ltd does not endorse the result of the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies but thisReport can be accessed at:http://www.thai-iod.com/en/publications.asp?type=4.South Korea: In South Korea, unless otherwise stated, research isprepared, issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities Korea Limited, which is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Services. Information onanalysts in MSKL is disclosed athttp://dis.kofia.or.kr/websquare/index.jsp?w2xPath=/wq/fundMgr/DISFundMgrAnalystStut.xml&divisionId=MDIS03002001000000&serviceId=SDIS03002001000.South Africa: In South Africa, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited, a member of the JSELimited. Singapore: In Singapore, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (Company RegistrationNumber: 198702912C), a Capital Markets Services license holder under the Securities and Futures Act to deal in securities and provide custodialservices in Singapore. Pursuant to the Financial Advisers (Amendment) Regulations 2005, Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd is exemptfrom complying with sections 25, 27 and 36 of the Financial Advisers Act. Al l Singapore-based recipients of research produced by Macquarie Capital(Europe) Limited, Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited and Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. representand warrant that they are institutional investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act. United States: In the United States, research is issued anddistributed by Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc, acceptsresponsibility for the content of each research report prepared by one of its non-US affiliates when the research report is distributed in the United Statesby Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.s affiliates analysts are not registered as research analysts with FINRA,may not beassociated persons of Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., and therefore may not be subject to FINRA rule restrictions on communications with a subjectcompany, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Information regarding futures is provided for referencepurposes only and is not a solicitation for purchases or sales of futures. Any persons receiving this report directly from Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. andwishing to effect a transaction in any security described herein should do so with Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Important disclosure informationregarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures, or contact your registeredrepresentative at 1-888-MAC-STOCK, or write to the Supervisory Analysts, Research Department, Macquarie Securities, 125 W.55th Street, New York,NY 10019. Macquarie Group
AucklandTel: (649) 377 6433
JakartaTel: (62 21) 515 1818
MunichTel: (089) 2444 31800
SydneyTel: (612) 8232 9555
BangkokTel: (662) 694 7999
JohannesburgTel: (2711) 583 2000
New YorkTel: (1 212) 231 2500
TaipeiTel: (886 2) 2734 7500
CalgaryTel: (1 403) 294 9541
Kuala LumpurTel: (60 3) 2059 8833
ParisTel: (33 1) 7842 3823
TokyoTel: (81 3) 3512 7900
DenverTel: (303) 952 2800
LondonTel: (44 20) 3037 2000
PerthTel: (618) 9224 0888
TorontoTel: (1 416) 848 3500
FrankfurtTel: (069) 509 578 000
ManilaTel: (63 2) 857 0888
SeoulTel: (82 2) 3705 8500
VancouverTel: (1 604) 605 3944
GenevaTel: (41) 22 818 7777
MelbourneTel: (613) 9635 8139
ShanghaiTel: (86 21) 6841 3355
Hong KongTel: (852) 2823 3588
MumbaiTel: (91 22) 6653 3000
SingaporeTel: (65) 6601 1111
Available to clients on the world wide web at www.macquarieresearch.com and through Thomson Financial, FactSet, Reuters, Bloomberg, and CapitalIQ.
http://www.thai-iod.com/en/publications.asp?type=4http://www.thai-iod.com/en/publications.asp?type=4http://www.thai-iod.com/en/publications.asp?type=4http://dis.kofia.or.kr/websquare/index.jsp?w2xPath=/wq/fundMgr/DISFundMgrAnalystStut.xml&divisionId=MDIS03002001000000&serviceId=SDIS03002001000http://dis.kofia.or.kr/websquare/index.jsp?w2xPath=/wq/fundMgr/DISFundMgrAnalystStut.xml&divisionId=MDIS03002001000000&serviceId=SDIS03002001000http://dis.kofia.or.kr/websquare/index.jsp?w2xPath=/wq/fundMgr/DISFundMgrAnalystStut.xml&divisionId=MDIS03002001000000&serviceId=SDIS03002001000http://dis.kofia.or.kr/websquare/index.jsp?w2xPath=/wq/fundMgr/DISFundMgrAnalystStut.xml&divisionId=MDIS03002001000000&serviceId=SDIS03002001000http://dis.kofia.or.kr/websquare/index.jsp?w2xPath=/wq/fundMgr/DISFundMgrAnalystStut.xml&divisionId=MDIS03002001000000&serviceId=SDIS03002001000http://www.thai-iod.com/en/publications.asp?type=4 -
8/10/2019 5 Asia Microstrategy
28/28
Asia ResearchHead of Equity Research
John OConnell (Global Head) (612) 8232 7544
Peter Redhead (AsiaHead) (852) 3922 4836
Automobiles/Auto Parts
Janet Lewis (China) (852) 3922 5417
Zhixuan Lin (China) (8621) 2412 9006
Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084
Takuo Katayama (Japan) (813) 3512 7856
Michael Sohn (Korea) (822) 3705 8644
Banks and Non-Bank Financials
Ismael Pili (Asia, Hong Kong, China) (852) 3922 4774
Jian Li (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3579
Matthew Smith (China) (8621) 2412 9022
Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078
Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8366
Alastair Macdonald (Japan) (813) 3512 7476
Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643
Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892
Thomas Stoegner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0854Dexter Hsu (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530
Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728
Conglomerates
Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892
Consumer and Gaming
Linda Huang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4068
Jamie Zhou (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1147
Elaine Lai (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4749
Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084
Lyall Taylor (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8489
Toby Williams (Japan) (813) 3512 7392
HongSuk Na (Korea) (822) 3705 8678
Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899
Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) (65) 6601 0840
Best Waiyanont (Thailand) (662) 694 7993
Emerging Leaders
Jake Lynch (China, Asia) (8621) 2412 9007
Michael Newman (Japan) (813) 3512 7920
Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953
Industrials
Janet Lewis (Asia) (852) 3922 5417
Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082
Saiyi He (China) (852) 3922 3585
Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087
Andy Lesmana (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8398
Kenjin Hotta (Japan) (813) 3512 7871
James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661
Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993
Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) (65) 6601 0840
David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753
Insurance
Scott Russell (Asia, Japan) (852) 3922 3567
Jian Li (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3579
Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643
Software and Internet
David Gibson (Asia) (813) 3512 7880
Jiong Shao (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3566
Alice Yang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1266
Hillman Chan (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3716
Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090
Nathan Ramler (Japan) (813) 3512 7875
Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989
Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals
James Hubbard (Asia) (852) 3922 1226
Aditya Suresh (Hong Kong, China) (852) 3922 1265
Abhishek Agarwal (India) (9122) 6720 4079
Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886
Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669
Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993
Trevor Buchinski (Thailand) (662) 694 7829
Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare
John Yung (Hong Kong, China) (852) 3922 1132
Abhishek Singhal (India) (9122) 6720 4086
Property
Tuck Yin Soong (Asia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0838
David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291
Raymond Liu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3629
Kai Tan (China) (852) 3922 3720
Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088
Andy Lesmana (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8398
William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864
Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993
RJ Aguirre (Philippines) (632) 857 0890
Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522
David Liao (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7518
Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727
Resources / Metals and Mining
Matty Zhao (Asia, China) (852) 3922 1293
Hefei Deng (China) (852) 3922 1136
Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886
Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669
David Liao (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7518
Technology
Jeffrey Su (Asia, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512
Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090
Claudio Aritomi (Japan) (813) 3512 7858
Damian Thong (Japan) (813) 3512 7877
David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880
George Chang (Japan) (813) 3512 7854
Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641
Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659
Ellen Tseng (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7524
Tammy Lai (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7525
Telecoms
Nathan Ramler (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7875
Danny Chu (852) 3922 4762
(China, Hong Kong, Taiwan)Eugene Jung (Korea) (822) 3705 8686
Prem Jearajasingam(Malaysia, Singapore) (603) 2059 8989
Piyachat Ratanasuvan (Thailand) (662) 694 7982
Transport & Infrastructure
Janet Lewis (Asia) (852) 3922 5417
Andrew Lee (Asia) (852) 3922 1167
Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993
Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522
Utilities & Renewables
Gary Chiu (Asia) (852) 3922 1435
Alan Hon (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3589
Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087
Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989
Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899
Commodities
Colin Hamilton (Global) (4420) 3037 4061
Jim Lennon (4420) 3037 4271
Matthew Turner (4420) 3037 4340
Graeme Train (8621) 2412 9035
Angela Bi (8621) 2412 9086
Rakesh Arora (9122) 6720 4093
Economics
Peter Eadon-Clarke (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7850
Richard Gibbs (Australia) (612) 8232 3935
Larry Hu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3778
Tanvee Gupta Jain (India) (9122) 6720 4355
Quantitative / CPG
Gurvinder Brar (Global) (4420) 3037 4036
Burke Lau (Asia) (852) 3922 5494
Jason Zhang (Asia) (852) 3922 1168
Suni Kim (Japan) (813) 3512 7569
Tim Sharp (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1318
Special Situations
Matthew Hook (Asia) (852) 3922 3743
Strategy/Country
Viktor Shvets (Asia) (852) 3922 3883
Chetan Seth (Asia) (852) 3922 4769
Joshua van Lin (Asia Micro) (852) 3922 1425Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850
David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291
Jiong Shao (China) (852) 3922 3566
Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093
Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) (6121) 2598 8366
Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643
Yeonzon Yeow (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982
Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892
Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182
David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753
Find our research atMacquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/researchThomson: www.thomson.com/financialReuters: www.knowledge.reuters.comBloomberg: MAC GOFactset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspxCapitalIQ www.capitaliq.comEmail [email protected] for access
Asia SalesRegional Heads of Sales
Miki Edelman (Asia) (813) 3512 7857
Jeffrey Shiu (China & Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061
Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41) 22 818 7712
Bharat Rawla (India) (9122) 6720 4100
Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486
Mark Chadwick (Japan) (813) 3512 7827
John Jay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988
Nik Hadi (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888
Eric Roles (New York) (1 212) 231 2559
Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861
Regional Heads of Sales contd
Ruben Boopalan (Singapore) (603) 2059 8888
Paul Colaco (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5003
Erica Wang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7586
Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601
Ben Musgrave (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4882
Julien Roux (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4867
Sales Trading
Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002
Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555
Sales Trading contd
Phil Sellaroli (Japan) (813) 3512 7837
Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888
Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813
Kenneth Cheung (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288
Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555
Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555
Isaac Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7582
Dominic Shore (Thailand) (662) 694 7707
Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4905