Formal aspects in spatial and hierarchical modelling: a survey.
4th WORKSHOP OF THE EXCOMPTE MODELLING EXERCISE Chemical ASPECTS:
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4th WORKSHOP OF THE EXCOMPTE MODELLING EXERCISE
Chemical ASPECTS:
I- Primary Pollutants (CO, SO2)
II- Ozone Precursors (NO2)
III- Ozone
IV- Ozone production (OH, chemical indicators)
V- Processes (Photolysis, deposition rates)
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I-1. Primary pollutants : CO
- Differences on the initial conditions => large differences on the background values from below 25 ppb (Polair), to 25-50 ppb (Mocage, RAMS-CAMx, TCAM1) up to 150-200 ppb for the others simulations
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I-1. Primary pollutants : CO
- Temporal evolution: impact of the evolution of the height of the surface layer- High concentrations inside plumes from sources at night- 09htu : slight decrease (whereas emissions increase slighly)- 12htu : decrease of the concentration- 15htu : CO plumes limited to the main sources emissions along the coast- 18htu : concentrations and plumes increase (whereas emissions decrease slightly)
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I-1. Primary pollutants : CO
- Warning: Even if models use normally the same inventory, it seems that the integration of this inventory was done on the same wayd, and differences others than
due to the spatial resolution appears
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I-1. Primary pollutants : CO
Use of the same meteorological forcing:- Night up to Morning: CHIMERE2 and RAMS-CAMX2 tend to the
MOCAGE1 simulation- From mid-day: influence is less strong
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I-1. Primary pollutants : CO
Differences between models:- UAM-Total and Polair: fine and intense plumes close to the sources- UAM-Total: mean co values at the north-west and some peaks near Arles- MOCAGE2 close to MOCAGE1- AZUR close to CHIMERE1- RAMS-RACM close to RAMS-MOCA2- Plumes are frequently puffs in the MOCAGE1 simulations
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I-1. Primary pollutants : CO
Differences between models:- frequently CO plumes above sea are intense in MC2-AQ simulations- frequently CO plumes above sea are not intense in MESO-NHC simulations- MM5b differ to the most to the mean simulated patterns (for days when wind fields differ to the mean meteorological forcing)
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I-1. Primary pollutants : CO
- Many times: strong relation between the localisation of the CO plumes and the wind-field
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I-1. Primary pollutants : CO
Few stations available to compare models and measurements:- correlation indexes below 0.3 : simulated peaks to fine in timecompare to the observed ones- mean/background value are generally lower in simulations compare to observations
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I-1. Primary pollutants : SO2
Developement and localisation of SO2 plumes compare to the CO plumes
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I-1. Primary pollutants : SO2
More stations, but comparisons are worse:- correlation indexes below 0.2, close to zero sometimes - some simulated strong and large peaks in time not observed
Too coarse resolution to model such specie ? Mismatch between the emission inventory and the reality ?
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NO2
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I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
Common simulated temporal evolution: - High concentrations on large areas at night- 09htu : slight decrease in space and intensity- 12htu : decrease of the concentration- 15htu : high NO2 values limited to the main sources emissions- 18htu : concentrations and plumes increase
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I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
Use of the same meteorological forcing (Aladin): close pattern during night/morning
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I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
Quite agreement in regards to the spatial resolution :Azur/Chimere1, Chimere-Acri, Rams-CAMX, Mocage1,
Except at the north-west corner around Avignon
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I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
Second group of comparable simulations :Uam-Total1 and Polair
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I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
Models with specific behaviour: - MC2-AQ : Large and strong plumes above sea - Meso-NHC: small plumes (or none) above sea
- Rams-moca1, Rams-moca2, Rams-Racm: mean values- Tcam1 low inland background values (appears at 09htu, max. at 15 htu)
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I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
- Correlation indexes:- Relatively small between 0.2/0.4-0.5, even worse during the IOP2b (below 0.2)
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- MBE on all value- IOP2a: from –10 to –20 ppb, highest value: MOCAGE1, RAMS-MOCA, MC2-AQ- IOP2b: from –10 (RAMS-MOCA, MC2-AQ) to +10 ppb (Meso-NHC, Chimere-ACRI)
I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
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- MBE on peaks:
- IOP2a: -20 to –50 ppb (MOCAGE1, RAMS-MOCA, MC2-AQ), except UAM-TOTAL1 (some over-estimation some days)
- IOP2b: -10/20 ppb (MOCAGE1, RAMS-MOCA) to +20 ppb (others models)
I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
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I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
Simulated peaks « near the surface » are too strong, whereas
simulated values at high altitudes are too low
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I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
Forecast of 1 hour NO2 above 135 ug.m-3:
- Quite good for all box-zones and IOPs- problems concerns mainly two models: MC2-AQ and Meso-NHC which simulate false alerts for the boxzone 1 and the boxzone 3
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I-2. Ozone precursors: NO2
Forecast of 1 hour NO2 above 200 ug.m-3:
- Quite good for all box-zones and IOPs- problems concerns mainly MC2-AQ and to a less extent Meso-NHC : false alerts for boxzones 1 and 3- other models miss some exceedances sometimes
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O3
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
21/06:• 09Htu : mean background, titration above main sources
- Titration: rams-racm- Background: mc2-aq, mocage1, polair,rams-camx1, rams-moca1
• 12Htu : mean (60-70) background, peaks east of Berre/Marseille- background: mc2-aq, mocage1, polair,- good plumes : chimere-acri, meso-nhc, mocage1,- false plumes : chimere1, mc2-aq, meso-nhc,mocage1,polair,
rams-camx1,rams-moca1,rams-moca2, rams-racm,uam-total1
• 15Htu : low values at centre/north-west, plumes near Toulon- Low values: chimere1,Chimere-acri, meso-nhc, rams-camx1,
rams-moca1, rams-moca2,rams-racm,uam-total1- good plumes : chimere1,meso-nhc, polair,rams-moca1 ,rams-racm,uam-total1- false plumes : chimere-acri, mc2-aq, meso-nhc,mocage1, rams-camx1,
rams-moca2
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
21/06:• 18Htu : mean values at coast, peaks at coast, low values in Durance Valley
- Durance valley good: mocage1, polair- peaks: Chimere1,chimere-acri, mc2-aq, mocage1, polair, rams-camx1,
rams-moca1,rams-moca2,rams-racm, uam-total1- mean values: Chimere-acri, mc2-aq, rams-camx1,rams-moca1,rams-racm
MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN:Specific: Chimere-acri, Meso-nhc, polair,rams-moca1,rams-moca2Close: Chimere1,rams-camx1,rams-racm,uam-total1Close: Mocage1, mc2-aq,
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
22/06:• 09Htu : mean background, titration durance
- Good Titration: mc2-aq, mocage1, polair- Background: mc2-aq, Meso-nhc (east), mocage1, polair,rams-camx1 (east),
rams-moca1,rams-moca2(east), uam-total(titration)
• 12Htu : mean (60-70) background- Background: mc2-aq, polair, uam-total1- False plume: Chimere-Acri, mocage1, rams-racm
• 15Htu : increase of background + peaks near Toulon- background : mc2-aq (north-east), mocage1 (north-east), polair- good plumes : chimere1, Chimere-acri, meso-nhc,mocage1, polair,
rams-camx1,rams-moca1,rams-racm, uam-total1- false plumes : mc2-aq, rams-moca2
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
22/06:• 18Htu : mean values with increase near the coast
- background : mc2-aq, mocage1 (north), Polair (north-east), rams-moca1( coast)- titration : chimere1, Chimere-Acri, Meso-nhc, rams-camx1, uam-total1- false plumes : mc2-aq, rams-racm,
MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN:Specific: mc2-aq, rams-moca1,rams-moca2Close: Chimere1,Chimere-Acri, Meso-nhc, mocage1,(Polair),
rams-camx1, rams-racm,uam-total1
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
23/06:• 09Htu : mean background, titration durance
- Good Titration: Chimere-Acri, mc2-aq, mocage1, polair, rams-camx1, uam-total1- Background: Chimere-Acri, mc2-aq, Meso-nhc,mocage1, polair, rams-camx1,
rams-racm,uam-total1
• 12Htu : low values, mean (60-70) at coast/north-east- good low values: mc2-aq- background : mc2-aq, mocage1 (north), Polair (north)- False plume: Chimere-Acri, mocage1, rams-moca1, rams-racm,
uam-total1
• 15Htu : low values larger in space, mean values near Toulon/coast- good background : mc2-aq (north only), meso-nhc (north-east only),
mocage1 (north only), polair- good Toulon : chimere1, mocage1, polair, rams-moca1,
rams-moca2, rams-racm- false plumes : chimere-Acri, uam-total1
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
23/06:• 18Htu : increase of background values and near main emissions sources
- background : mc2-aq, Polair (north-east)- Titration : Chimere1,Chimere-Acri, mc2-aq, Meso-nhc, Polair, rams-camx1,
rams-moca2, rams-racm - false plumes : Chimere-Acri, uam-total1
MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN:Specific: mc2-aq, Polair,Close: Chimere-Acri, mocage1, rams-moca1, rams-racm, uam-total1Close: Chimere1,Meso-nhc, rams-camx1, rams-moca2
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
24/06:• 09Htu : mean background, titration Marseille/durance
- Good Titration: mc2-aq, Meso-nhc,polair, rams-moca1, uam-total1- Background: mc2-aq, Meso-nhc, mocage1, polair, rams-moca2, rams-racm,
uam-total1
• 12Htu : mean (60-70), plumes from Alpilles/salon de provence- background : mc2-aq (Toulon), mocage1 (north-east), polair (north-east),
rams-moca2 (source)- False plumes: Chimere1,Chimere-acri, mc2-aq (too east),
meso-nhc (too east), mocage1, rams-racm- good plumes: Chimere-acri, mocage1, Polair, rams-moca1, rams-racm,
uam-total1
• 15Htu : plumes extends to the north-east-False plumes : chimere1(too east) , mc2-aq (too east), mocage1,
Meso-nhc (too north-east), Uam-total1 (too east),rams-moca1 (too large and at the coast),
- good plumes : chimere1, chimere-acri, mc2-aq, mocage1
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
24/06:• 18Htu : titration above sources, plumes at the north-east
- background : mocage1 (north-east), Polair (at the plume)- bad Titration : mc2-aq, mocage1, rams-moca1,rams-moca2- good plumes : Chimere1, Chimere-Acri, mocage1- false plumes : mc2-aq (too east), mocage1 (toulon), rams-moca1, rams-racm,
uam-otal1 (west border)
MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN:Specific: Meso-nhc, mocage1, Polair, rams-moca2, rams-camx1Close: Chimere1, Chimere-Acri, rams-moca1Close: mc2-aq, rams-racm,Uam-Total1
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
25/06:• 09Htu : mean background, titration Marseille/coast
- bad Titration: mc2-aq (large), Meso-nhc (large), mocage1, rams-camx1 (large), rams-moca2 (none), rams-racm (none)
- Background: mc2-aq (high), mocage1,Polair (north), rams-moca1 (west), rams-racm (high)
• 12Htu : mean (60-70), large plume from east of berre to north-west- background : mocage1 (north-east), rams-moca1 (low coast),
rams-racm (large plumes)- False plume: meso-nhc, mocage1 (coastline), rams-moca1 (too north),
rams-racm- good plumes: Chimere1, Chimere-acri, mc2-aq, Polair, rams-racm
• 15Htu : mean values sources/coast, large plumes- background : chimere1 (toulon), mocage1 (NO), rams-moca1 (low coast)- False plumes : Meso-nhc (NE only), mocage1 (NE only),
rams-moca1 (too north), uam-total1(W et E)- good plumes : chimere1 (miss NE), Chimere-acri (miss NE), mc2-aq,
Polair (low W), rams-moca2, rams-racm
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
25/06:• 18Htu : decrease of background, plumes at NE
- background : mocage1 (north-east), rams-racm (low coast)- bad Titration : Chimere1, Chimere-acri, mc2-aq, rams-camx1, uam-total1- good plumes : Chimere1, Chimere-acri, MC2-aq, mocage1, rams-racm- bad plumes : Meso-nhc (too early), rams-moca2 (too early)
MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN:Specific: rams-camx1, uam-total1Close: Chimere1, mc2-aq, Meso-nhc, mocage1, rams-moca1, rams-moca2,
rams-racmClose: Chimere-acri, Polair
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
26/06:• 09Htu : mean background, titration source
- bad Titration: mc2-aq (too north), rams-camx1 (large), rams-moca1 (too large), rams-moca2 (too large), uam-total1 (large)
- Background: Chimere1 (plume at E), Chimere-acri (high toulon), mc2-aq (plume at E), mocage1 (large low), rams-racm (plume at E)
• 12Htu : mean+ (70-80), peaks at north-west, mean values around toulon-Background: mocage1 (NE), rams-moca1 (source), rams-moca2,
uam-total1 (source)- Toulon : Chimere1, Chimere-acri- False plumes: Chimere1, Chimere-acri, mc2-aq, Meso-nhc (NE), mocage1,
rams-racm(E), uam-total1 (E)- good plumes: (chimere1), chimere-acri, (mc2-aq), rams-moca2, rams-racm
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
26/06:• 15Htu : mean values sources/coast, peaks center of the domain
- background : chimere1 (plume too large),chimere-acri (high sea), mocage1 (border), rams-moca1 (low), rams-moca2 (low)
- false plumes : Meso-nhc (too NE), rams-camx1 (too NE), rams-racm (too NE), uam-total1 (too NE)
- good plumes : chimere1, chimere-acri (too W), mc2-aq (W, strong), mocage1
• 18Htu : titration coast + peaks near cadarache- background : chimere-acri (high sea), mocage1 (NE, NW),rams-moca1 (low),
rams-moca2 (low), uam-total1- bad Titration : Meso-nhc (too inland), rams-racm (large)- good plumes : Chimere1, mc2-aq- false plumes : mocage1 (too N), rams-racm (too NE)
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
26/06:MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN:
Specific: Chimere-acri , mocage1, PolairClose: Chimere1, mc2-aqClose: Meso-nhc, rams-camx1, rams-racm, (uam-total1)Close: rams-moca1, rams-moca2
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
02/07:• 09Htu : low west, mean east
- Background: Chimere1 (W), mc2-aq (SE), mocage1 (source), polair, rams-moca2 (W), rams-racm(W),UAM-Total1 (Toulon)
• 12Htu : increase of O3, high value coast/berre/marseille- background : chimere1 (too large), mc2-aq, mocage1 (N), Polair,
rams-racm (too large), UAM-Total1 (too large)- False plumes: Chimere-acri (too W), mc2-aq (N), mocage1 (too W),
rams-moca1 (N), rams-moca2 (NE)- good plumes: Chimere1, rams-racm, UAM-Total1
• 15Htu : extent of the plumes- background : Chimere1 (too large), mc2-aq, Polair (low),
rams-racm (too large), uam-total1 (too large)- False plumes : Chimere-acri (too NO), mc2-aq (NE), Meso-nhc (NE),
mocage1 (NE), rams-moca1 (too NO), rams-moca2, uam-total1 (too large)
- good plumes : Chimere1, rams-racm
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
02/07:• 18Htu : mean coast, plumes to the north
- background : mc2-aq, polair (north), rams-racm (too large), uam-total1 (coast)- bad Titration : Chimere1, Chimere-acri- good plumes : Chimere1, Chimere-acri, rams-racm- false plumes :mc2-aq(NE), Meso-nhc, mocage1, RASM-MOCA1 (NE),
rams-moca2 (N), UAM-Total1
MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN:Specific: Chimere, mc2-aq, Meso-nhc, mocage1, Polair, UAM-Total1Close: Chimere-acri, rams-moca1, (rams-moca2), rams-racm
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
03/07:• 09Htu : mean values, peaks at north
- Background: mc2-aq, Meso-nhc, mocage1, polair,rams-moca1, rams-moca2 (NE),rams-racm(NE), uam-total1 (coast,NE)
- good peaks: mc2-Aq
• 12Htu : mean values coast, plumes from avignon to cadarache- good coast : Meso-nhc, mocage1, Polair, rams-moca2- False plumes: mc2-aq (too N, E), Meso-nhc (too N), rams-moca1 (NE),
rams-moca2 (NE), uam-total1- good plumes: Chimere1 (too large), Chimere-acri, Mocage1 (too large),
rams-racm
• 15Htu : increase of values, plumes to NE- background : Chimere1 (coast), mc2-aq (coast), Meso-nhc (low source),
Mocage1 (W), Polair (W, N), rams-moca1, uam-total1 (coast)- False plumes : mocage1 (too NE), rams-moca2 (too NE), rams-racm (too NE)- good plumes : Chimere1, Chimere-acri, mc2-aq
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
03/07:• 18Htu : titration at source, plume at NE
- background : mc2-Aq (coast), Meso-nhc, mocage1, rams-moca1, rams-moca2, uam-total1 (coast)
- good plumes : Chimere1, Chimere-acri, mc2-aq, mocage1
MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN:Specific: Meso-nhc, Polair, Uam-total1Close: Chimere1, mc2-aqClose: Chimere-acri, mocage1Close: Rams-moca1, rams-moca2, rams-racm
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
04/07:• 09Htu : mean values, titration at coast
- Background: mc2-aq (high! at NE), Meso-nhc (NW), Mocage1, rams-moca1- good coast: Meso-nhc, Mocage1, Polair, RAMS-moca1
• 12Htu : (70-80) from avignon to salon de provence- backgound : meso-nhc (low coast)- good plumes: chimere1, chimere-acri (N), mc2-aq (too NE), Mocage1,
rams-moca2 (too NE), rams-racm
• 15Htu : low values at coast, plumes from salon to the north- good coast : Meso-nhc- good plumes : chimere1, mc2-aq (too E), Mocage1
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
03/07:• 18Htu : low values sources/coast, mean values
- background : Meso-nhc (too low), rams-moca1( too low E)- good titration: chimere1, chimere-acri, mocage1, rams-moca2
MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN:Specific: Meso-nhc, mocage1, polair, rams-moca1, rams-moca2, uam-total1Close: chimere1, chimere-acriClose: mc2-aq, rams-racm
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II-1 : Similarities and differences between models
NIGHT PATTERN:
• MOCAGE1 simulates large and strong low ozone field
• RAMS-MOCA1, MC2-AQ, (Meso-NHC) under-estimate ozone
• RAMS-MOCA2 and RAMS-RACM simulate high ozone
• Few models achieve to reproduce correctly the low ozone in the durance valley, but some models reproduce well the background ozone at elevated sites.
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II-1 : Similarities and differences between models
MORNING PATTERN (09htu):
• CHIMERE1 AND AZUR simulate a quasi homogeneous field (~ 50-60 ppb)
• MOCAGE1 under-estimates ozone
• MAPOM simulates a very high ozone value above sea which will lead to very high values above land during the day
• Polair pattern is nearly similar from one day to another ones (band of background ozone along the coastline surrounded by low values everywhere
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II-1 : Similarities and differences between models
DAILY PATTERN:
• Few models show a specific comportment observed every day (Low values at the north/north-west border in MOCAGE simulations, high over-estimation by Mapom, high ozone at west border in UAM simulations…)
• Specific comportment is more dependant to the day:
Example: 02 July: low ozone plume in MC2-Aq, high and large ozone plumes in Chimere1, wrong localisation in MOCAGE1 …
• 26 June = day with the highest simulated ozone values (MC2-AQ)
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II-1 : Similarities and differences between models
DAILY PATTERN: some different behaviours are observed from one IOP to another ones
• much high ozone above sea and inland during IOP3 for Chimere1, UAM-total1 compared to IOP2a/2b
• lower inland values for Meso-NHC during IOP3 compared to IOP2a/2b
• high inland ozone during the 25/06, 26/06, 03/07, 04/07 compared to very low values for the other days
for Polair
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
Lowest correlation factor: RAMS-MOCA2/RAMS-RACM due to a general night-time over-estimation
Temporal evolution: Quite good reproduced (correlation between 0.6/0.8)
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
Sometimes all models for one zone/one day
have bad correlation factor
One model which has a general good correlation,
can be bad sometimes
None perfect model Temporal evolution:
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
Range of MBE is between –10 ppb to +15/+20 ppbMBE on all values:
Highest MBE: generally MAPOM, RAMS-RACM simulation
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
MBE on all values: No tendency when we consider all models,
except during IOP 2b for zone 1/4/5/6
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
MBE on all values:
As for correlation factor , sometimes a « good » model can be bad (high MBE)
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
MBE on all values:
Do we observe a general tendency for each model ?
- for Mapom, Mocage 2: positive MBE for near all cases
- for few models (Chimere, azur, acri, mocage1,…): yes, but depend of the IOP
- for others: positive or negative MBE
Do we observe a general tendency for each box-zone ?
Sign of MBE change with IOP and with models
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
Does results comparable for simulations using the same meteorological forcing conditions ?
- Chimere 1 / Azur : yes for all IOP
- Rams-moca2 / Rams-Racm : no
- Mocage 1 / Rams camx2 / Chimere 2: - IOP 1 : Chimere 2 come close to Mocage1- IOP 2a: For some box-zone Chimere2 and Rams-camx2 come close to Mocage1- IOP 2b/4 : No !
MBE on all values:
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
Range of MBE on maximum and minimum value is greater than on all value: -25/+25 ppb
MBE on extreme values:
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
MBE on maximum values:
On maximum, tendency can be variable between models, but highest differences are generally observed for the same stations
Accuracy (%) of Unpaired ozone peak for IOP 2b
POLAIR CHIMERE-ACRI UAM-TOTAL
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
MBE on maximum values:
Such high differences at a specific station are generally observed for all IOPs
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
MBE on maximum values:
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MBE on minimum values:
On minimum, models generally over-estimate ozone
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone
- Chimere 1 / Azur : yes but difference is higher than on all values
- Rams-moca2 / Rams-racm : no- Mocage 1/Rams camx2 /Chimere2 : no
Zone 3IOP 2b
MBE onMax.
Does models using the same meteorology lead to the same differences on maximum and minimum ?
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting
Ozone maximumsObserved the 21, 22and 23 June 2001.
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting INFORMATION LEVEL > 180 ug/m3
Some models lead to false alerts (Mapom, Mocage 2 and Chimere-acri)
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting INFORMATION LEVEL > 180 ug/m3
Models which predict good exceedanceslead also to false alerts
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting ALERT level > 240 ug/m3
No observed exceedances, Two cases of false alerts with Mapom and Mocage 2 simulation
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting
Ozone maximumObserved the 24, 25and 26 June 2001.
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting INFORMATION LEVEL (>180 ug/m3)
Zone 3 = zone with the maximum number of observed exceedances :
½ models predict it correctly (½ models miss it)
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting INFORMATION LEVEL (>180 ug/m3)
Zone 1: Numerous false alerts for day 1
Exceedances for the day 2 are not predicted correctly by all models
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting ALERT level > 240 ug/m3
ozone value above 240 ug/m3 are observed for zone 3 and zone 4
Near all models do not simulate such exceedances
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting ALERT level > 240 ug/m3
Number of False alerts are higher than for IOP2a/ IOP3
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting
Ozone maximumObserved the 02, 03and 04 July 2001.
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting INFORMATION LEVEL (>180 ug/m3)
1/2 models do not simulate correctly exceedances for the zone 3
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting ALERT LEVEL (> 240 ug/m3)
No observed exceedances,
few cases of false alerts with MAPOM and MOCAGE 2 simulation
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I-2. How models reproduce Ozone: Chemical forecasting
- Mapom, Mocage 2: over-estimation of ozone value lead to false alerts for 180 and 240 ug/m3 limit, but prediction of observed exceedances for 180 ug/m3 is good …
- Generally 1/2 models do not simulate correctly the observed exceedances for 180 ug/m3 (Rams moca, Rams camx, meso-nhc …)
(problem of localisation/Intensity of ozone plumes)
- During IOP2b, all models do not simulate the high ozone value above 240 ug/m3 observed in the northen rural part of the ESCOMPTE domain (zone 4)
(high ozone plumes do not go as far inland as in observations)
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PHOTOCHEMICAL PRODUCTION OF OZONE:OH
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II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison on OH
OH patterns are relatively quite similar despite the various chemical scheme used
First group : Chimere1 , Chimere-Acri (more intense on boat roads and at teh south-east/Toulon), RAMS-CAMX1 (less intense above sea)
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II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison on OH
Second group : Polair (thinnest plumes) and MOCAGE1 : lower intensity than first group (close to RAMS-CAMX1)
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II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison on OH
Specific patterns : RAMS-MOCA1 (large high OH values around main emission sources) , RAMS-MOCA2 (opposite) ,RAMS-RACM (RAMS-MOCA1 whith higher background values => pattern of RAMS-CAMX1 but with different intensity)
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II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison on OH
Use of Aladin meteorological field : RAMS-CAMX2 close to RAMS-CAMX1CHIMERE2 close to CHIMERE1 (except near Avignon)
TCAM1 close to RAMS-CAMX2 (but intensity is very higher for background and plumes)
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II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison on OH
At the beginning of the photochemical production:generally we observed coherence between OH and O3 patterns
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II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison on OH
But not after: effect of transport of pollutants and precursors ?
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PHOTOCHEMICAL PRODUCTION OF OZONE:Chemical indicators
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II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison of VOC/NOX limited regimes
Area of O3 production limited by VOC vary strongly according to the indicator used:Uncertainties linked to some process such as dry deposition on HNO3 ….
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Comparison based on O3/NOz:Chimere1, Azur, RAMS-CAMX1: close patternsChimere-Acri: close too except the marine plumes, and at the north-west
II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison of VOC/NOX limited regimes
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Comparison based on O3/NOz:Meso-NHC and UAM-TOTAL1: limited VOC-limited area above sea
inland area larger than Chimere1
II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison of VOC/NOX limited regimes
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II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison of VOC/NOX limited regimes
Comparison based on O3/NOz:RAMS-MOCA1, RAMS-MOCA2, RAMS-RACM: close
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II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison of VOC/NOX limited regimes
Comparison based on O3/NOz:MOCAGE1 : pattern generally quite different with large inland area
defined as VOC-limited
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Comparison based on O3/NOz:difference between models are yet subject to some uncertainties, such as which species are regrouped in NOz in the different models (and how species of this model specie are deposited at the surface between the models)
II-2 : Does photochemical ozone production work in a similar way: Comparison of VOC/NOX limited regimes
=> the use of such indicators is difficult
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COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT PROCESSES:Photolysis rates
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JNO2
“Reference state”:
25th June 2001 - Hour 12.00 UTC - 10 m agl
Comparisons concerning:
- Different models: RAMS- CAMx, MOCAGE 1, AZUR, CHIMERE 1, RAMS-MOCA2
- Different hours: 9.00, 12.00, 15.00 UTC
- Different heights: 10, 500, 4000 m agl
- Different IOP: IOP2a, IOP2b (IOP1,IOP3)
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JNOJNO22 - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m aglII-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JNO2
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JNO2
JNOJNO22 - 25 June 2001 H - 25 June 2001 H 09.0009.00 - 10 m agl - 10 m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JNO2
JNOJNO22 - 25 June 2001 H - 25 June 2001 H 15.0015.00 - 10 m agl - 10 m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JNO2
JNOJNO22 - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 500500 m agl m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JNO2
JNOJNO22 - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 40004000 m agl m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JNO2
JNOJNO22 - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JNO2
JNOJNO22 - - 2222 June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JNO2
JNOJNO22 - H 12.00 - - H 12.00 - O3 H 15.00O3 H 15.00
22 June15 June 25 June 2 July
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JNO2
JNOJNO22 - - SummarySummary
25/6- 9.00
0.8
[s-1 1E-2]630 650 670 690 710 730 750
U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
630 650 670 690 710 730 750UTM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
25/6-12.00
25/6-15.00
22/6-12.00
CX
1.3
MO
0.6
630 650 670 690 710 730 750U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
CX
1.0
MO
0.8
630 650 670 690 710 730 750U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
CX
1.3
MO
0.85
630 650 670 690 710 730 750U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
CX
1.4
MO
1.1
630 650 670 690 710 730 750
U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
CX
1.4
MO10 m 500 m
0.7
630 650 670 690 710 730 750U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
CX
1.0
MO
Range of variability
± 12% - ± 25%
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JO3
JJOO33 - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JO3
JOJO33 - 25 June 2001 H - 25 June 2001 H 09.0009.00 - 10 m agl - 10 m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JO3
JOJO33 - 25 June 2001 H - 25 June 2001 H 15.0015.00 - 10 m agl - 10 m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JO3
JOJO33 - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 500500 m agl m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JO3
JOJO33 - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 40004000 m agl m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JO3
JOJO33 - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JO3
JOJO33 - - 2222 June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl June 2001 H 12.00 - 10 m agl
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JO3
JOJO33 and JNO and JNO22 - H 12.00 ---- O3 - H 15.00 - H 12.00 ---- O3 - H 15.0022 June15 June 25 June 2 July
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II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar : JO3
JOJO33 - - SummarySummary
25/6- 9.00
3.25
[s-1 1E-5]630 650 670 690 710 730 750
UTM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
1.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.253.503.754.004.254.504.755.00
[s-1 E-5]
630 650 670 690 710 730 750U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
25/6-12.00
25/6-15.00
22/6-12.00
CX/MO
4.5
RC2
2.0
630 650 670 690 710 730 750U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
AZ
3.25
RC2
3.25
630 650 670 690 710 730 750U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
CX
4.25
RC2
3.75
630 650 670 690 710 730 750
U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
CX
5.0
RC2
4.25
MO10 m
500 m
1.75
630 650 670 690 710 730 750U TM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
CX
2.75
AZ
Range of variability
± 8% - ± 24%
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• J clearly depends on hour and height, but to a lesser extent on IOP and horizontal coordinate (except for MOCAGE)
• Models usually have shown a coherent behaviour, more for JNO2 than JO3
• O3 concentrations are not directly linked to J values
• Models have highlighted a range of variability of 12% to 25% for both rates
II-4 : Are photochemical rates similar
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COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT PROCESSES:Dry deposition
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II-4 : How compare dry deposition of ozone
“Reference state”:
25th June 2001 - Hour 12.00 UTC
Comparisons concerning:
- Different models: RAMS-CAM1, MOCAGE 1, AZUR, CHIMERE 1, RAMS-MOCA2
- Different hours: 0.00, 6.00, 12.00, 18.00 UTC
- Different IOP: IOP2a, IOP2b (IOP1,IOP3)
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II-4 : How compare dry deposition of ozone
Vdep OVdep O33 - 25 June 2001 H 12.00 - 25 June 2001 H 12.00
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II-4 : How compare dry deposition of ozone
Vdep OVdep O33 - 25 June 2001 H - 25 June 2001 H 00.0000.00
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II-4 : How compare dry deposition of ozone
Vdep OVdep O33 - 25 June 2001 H - 25 June 2001 H 06.0006.00
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II-4 : How compare dry deposition of ozone
Vdep OVdep O33 - 25 June 2001 H - 25 June 2001 H 18.0018.00
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II-4 : How compare dry deposition of ozone
Vdep OVdep O33 - H 12.00 - H 12.0022 June15 June 25 June 2 July
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II-4 : How compare dry deposition of ozone
Vdep OVdep O33 – – O3 - O3 - H 12.00 H 12.0022 June15 June 25 June 2 July
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II-4 : How compare dry deposition of ozone
Vdep OVdep O33 - - Summary of Maximum valuesSummary of Maximum values
630 650 670 690 710 730 750UTM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
630 650 670 690 710 730 750UTM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
630 650 670 690 710 730 750UTM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s -1 E -2]
630 650 670 690 710 730 750UTM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
630 650 670 690 710 730 750UTM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
0.4
00
.50
0.6
00
.70
0.8
00
.90
1.0
01
.10
1.2
01
.30
1.4
01
.50
1.6
01
.70
1.8
01
.90
[s-1 E -2]
0.6
[cm s-1]
25/6
22/6RC1/2
1.8
MO
0.2
All
0.6
RC1/2
1.0
MO
0.6
RC1/2
1.8
MO
H 0.00
Range of variability
± 25% - ± 50%
0.6
MO
1.0
AZ
630 650 670 690 710 730 750
UTM km
4730
4750
4770
4790
4810
4830
4850
4870
UT
M k
m
Marseille
Aix en ProvenceSaint Chamas
Toulon
Port de Bouc
Avignon
[cm /s] 0.0
00
.20
0.4
00
.60
0.8
01
.00
1.2
01
.40
1.6
01
.80
2.0
02
.20
2.4
02
.60
H 18.00H 12.00H 6.00
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II-4 : How compare dry deposition of ozone
• Vdep is function of both time and space (turbulence and Land use)
• Models estimations have shown a quite coherent behaviour
• Range of variability among models spans from 25% to 50% (for the maximum value over the domain)
• Possible link between O3 concentrations and Vdep