4Q15 Earnings Release€¦ · 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 167.3 178.5 201.6...

22
Telecom Argentina Telecom Argentina 4Q15 4Q15 Earnings Earnings Release Release 4Q15 4Q15 Earnings Earnings Release Release Conference Call Presentation

Transcript of 4Q15 Earnings Release€¦ · 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 167.3 178.5 201.6...

Page 1: 4Q15 Earnings Release€¦ · 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 167.3 178.5 201.6 217.4 231.5 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Monthly Churn ARPU (AR$) Fixed Fixed ––UBB

Telecom ArgentinaTelecom Argentina

4Q15 4Q15 EarningsEarnings ReleaseRelease4Q15 4Q15 EarningsEarnings ReleaseRelease

Conference Call Presentation

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This presentation is based on audited financial statements and may include statements that could constitute forward-looking statements,

including, but not limited to, the Company’s expectations for its future performance, revenues, income, earnings per share, capital

expenditures, dividends, liquidity and capital structure; the impact of the emergency laws enacted by the Argentine government; and the

impact of rate changes and competition on the Company’s future financial performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by

words such as “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “projects”, “intends”, “should”, “seeks”, “estimates”, “future” or other similar expressions.

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could significantly affect the Company’s expected results. The risks and

uncertainties include, but are not limited to, uncertainties concerning the impact of the emergency laws enacted by the Argentine government

which have resulted in the repeal of Argentina’s convertibility law, the devaluation of the peso, restrictions on the ability to exchange pesos

into foreign currencies, the adoption of a restrictive currency transfer policy, the “pesification” of tariffs charged for public services, the

elimination of indexes to adjust rates charged for public services and the executive branch announcement to renegotiate the terms of the

concessions granted to public service providers, including Telecom. Due to extensive and rapid changes in laws and economic and business

DDisclaimerisclaimer

concessions granted to public service providers, including Telecom. Due to extensive and rapid changes in laws and economic and business

conditions in Argentina, it is difficult to predict the impact of these changes on the Company’s financial condition. Other factors may include,

but are not limited to, the evolution of the economy in Argentina, growing inflationary pressure and reduction in consumer spending and the

outcome of certain legal proceedings. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as

the date of this document. The Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly the results of any revisions to forward-looking statements

which may be made to reflect events and circumstances after the date of this presentation, including, without limitation, changes in the

Company’s business or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Information included in this presentation is unaudited and may not

coincide with that included in the financial statements of the Company, due to rounding, reclassification matters, and other reasons. Readers

are encouraged to consult the Company’s Annual Report and Form 20-F as well as periodic filings made on Form 6-K, which are filed with or

furnished to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and the Argentine Comisión Nacional de Valores.

1

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AgendaAgenda

Market Overview

Business Highlights

Financials

Q&A

2

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4.3% 4.3%

1.0% 1.0%

43.330.6 31.4 31.5 33.9 33.3

25.6

2012 2013 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

Central Bank Reserves (Billion U$S)

Central Bank Reserves

Household consumption

26.6%

38.0%

28.0% 26.9%

Consumer Price Index (GCBA)

CPI (YoY)

Macro: a new administration in office that is focused the normalization of the economyMacro: a new administration in office that is focused the normalization of the economy

FX Rate Main measures that allowed exchange rate

unification:

� Lifting of restrictions on FX markets .

� Reduction or elimination of export taxes for

commodities and industrial products.

�Agreements with exporters to sell

inventories of grain.

�Devaluation & new floating exchange rate

regime.

Main measures that allowed exchange rate

unification:

� Lifting of restrictions on FX markets .

� Reduction or elimination of export taxes for

commodities and industrial products.

�Agreements with exporters to sell

inventories of grain.

�Devaluation & new floating exchange rate

regime.2016: Repo with International Investment

Banks for U$S 5BN.

Social services & Healthcare

Public Admin & Defense

Electricity, gas & water

Construction

Economic activity per sectorTotal

3

-0.5%

0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0%

2012 2013 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15e 4Q15e

�As of December 2015, international reserves

showed a decrease vs 2014, mainly due to CB’s

interventions to offset further depreciations of the

exchange rate and payments of sovereign debt.

Nonetheless, a positive trend was observed after

the new administration was in offices and the FX

market controls were eliminated.

�Overall household consumption has maintained a

slight positive performance, but far from high levels

reached in previous years. It is expected that raises

in utilities tariffs during 2016 would impact

negatively in average consumption.

�On Dec-15, with the lifting of official FX markets

controls, the peso suffered a significant

depreciation (40%) closing 2015 at AR$ 13 per USD.

� The CPI Index was not published for YE15, after

announcing a deep revision in the process and

mechanisms implemented by INDEC. As guidance,

the authorities suggested that other indexes

published by provincial entities, i.e. the Buenos

Aires City and San Luis, should be observed.

� Trade balance continued to decrease in 4Q15, as

exports accumulated 23 months of contraction

(according to last available data).

� The economic activity closed the year with a slow

and fragile recovery, mainly due to notorious

improvements in Construction, public

administration and utilities.

� Industrial production Index (IPI) showed a positive

trend, but at a much lower and volatile pace than

the rest of the economy.

26.6% 28.0% 25.5% 24.0%26.9%

2013 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

16.5%

Transport & Communications

Financial interm.

Manufacturer Industry

Real Estate

Minery

Retail & Wholesale commerce

Agriculture

Social services & Healthcare

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AgendaAgenda

Market Overview

Business Highlights

Financials

Q&A

4

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B U S I N E S S

HighlightsHighlights

MobileMobile –– SustainedSustained growthgrowth drivendriven byby DataData && InternetInternet

� Solid position in value segments: postpaid gross adds +500k subs in 4Q15, 6% YoY

� Important delivery of handsets during 4Q15: quantities increase by 18% vs 4Q14. LTE device sell-out >85%

� Quick adoption of Data Centric offers (clients with new plans represent 25% of postpaid subs in FY15)

�Successful 4G rollout continues:

-2 million customers are using our 4G platform

- Data consumption boost (146% higher than non-4G clients average consumption)

� Browsing ARPU growing at 67% pace enhanced by increased data usage (+10% users, +54% usage)

� Launch of 4G for mass market in Paraguay

FixedFixed BroadbandBroadband –– ExpandingExpanding positionposition inin keykey segmentssegmentsFixedFixed BroadbandBroadband –– ExpandingExpanding positionposition inin keykey segmentssegments

≥ 10Mb subs = 27% of CB vs. 16% in 4Q14 - ARPU +36% vs. 4Q14. Total BB Accesses +2% vs. 4Q14

� Service Revenues growth of 22%, mainly driven by:

- Mobile Internet in Argentina (+88%)

- Fixed Broadband (+40%)

� EBITDA increased by +25% with a positive effect in margins, reaching a 27% profitability in a challenging scenario, reverting

the historical trend

� LTM FCF generation of AR$ 192MM, after paying AR$ 804 MM in cash dividends and AR$ 2,256 MM in Spectrum in

Argentina. NFP (debt) reaches AR$ 2.3 Bn, mostly in local currency

� Sound hedging strategy with +70% FX exposure coverage, partially offsetting impact of FX depreciation in YE15

F I N A N C I A L S

5

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New Regulatory Framework: merger of telco and media and new regulatory entityNew Regulatory Framework: merger of telco and media and new regulatory entity

MAIN AUTHORITIES

Main changes introduced by Decree

267/15:

� Incorporates Pay TV (excluding Satellite TV)

as an ICT (1) service.

� The decree has set certain restrictions to

telcos to provide multimedia convergent

ARGENTINA DIGITAL LAW

LAW N 27.078

It was enacted as of 12/19/2014

Main regulation - Declares of public

Interest the development of ICT services

Decree 267/15

� Provides ENACOM

creation.

� Modifies certain aspects

of Law 27.078, but

maintains the free pricing

criteria.

� Has to be approved by

(Former Ministry of Federal Planning and

Secretary of Communications)

AMENDS

MINISTRY OF COMMUNICATIONS

REGULATION

6

telcos to provide multimedia convergent

offers.

� Changes in licencing restrictions for Media.

� Simplification of approval process for

changes in ownerships of licenses.

� Satellite TV providers can not offer

Broadband.

ENACOM is a new regulatory agency with authority over media

and telecommunications, that has a President appointed by the

Executive Power and a Board of Directors composed by 6

directors, of which 3 are appointed by the Executive Power and

3 by Congress.

(1) Information and Communication Technologies

� Has to be approved by

Legislative Power during

Ordinary Sessions of 2016

to fully enforce its

resolutions.

(merges functions of both former

agencies AFTIC (Telcos) and AFSCA

(media)

ENACOM(National Communications Entity)

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1,649 1,316

1,767

Group Revenues: focus on mix and trend. Strong revenue performance in 4Q15Group Revenues: focus on mix and trend. Strong revenue performance in 4Q15

Retail Mobile

Retail Fixed Voice

BB and fixed data

AR$, Million

49% 50%

14% 16%

9% 8%

Retail Fixed Voice

Group Revenue Mix

682 745

704 788

723 846 744

925

FY14 FY15

+16%

1Q

3Q

2Q

9%

17%

12%

+34%

35%

Broadband & Fixed Data

+88%

Internet Mobile

2,8533,304

4,724

6,330

6,254

4Q24%

35%

3Q

4Q

1,045 1,380 1,141

1,534 1,222

1,649

FY14 FY15

Regulated Rev

% on Total Rev 7.3% 7.0%

Handsets

Paraguay

FY15

Wholesale

FY14

14% 12%

4% 4%

15% 15%

9% 7%

Retail Mobile

35%

32%

34%

3,776 4,735 3,921 4,826 4,119

5,207 4,515

5,606

FY14 FY15

+25%

25%

26%

23%

6441,188

781

1,501 869

1,594

1,041

1,971

FY14 FY15

+88%

83%

84%

92%

16,331

20,374

3,335

7

1Q

3Q

2Q

24%

1Q

3Q

2Q

4Q

1Q

3Q

2Q

4Q

89%

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1,771 1,768

1,786

1,804 1,814

4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

167.3 178.5 201.6 217.4 231.5

4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

Monthly Churn ARPU (AR$)

Fixed Fixed –– UBB accesses increased significantly in 4Q15 propped by competitive offerUBB accesses increased significantly in 4Q15 propped by competitive offer

Thousand of broadband accesses, thousand of net adds

+43k; +2%

AR$/Month

BB Accesses

+38%

BB ARPU & Churn

8

291 335 394 448 492

4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

Monthly Churn ARPU (AR$)

735 963

1,470 1,780

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

IFRS Million of AR$

+31%

+21%

≥10Mb subs.

≥10Mb

% of CB

+44k;

+10%

16% 19% 22%

~2x

25%

Data / ICT Revenues

27%

+53%

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Fixed Fixed –– ARBU sustained thru flat pricing + price adjustment in the business monthly feeARBU sustained thru flat pricing + price adjustment in the business monthly fee

4,093 4,077 4,064 4,054 4,043

Thousand of lines

AR$/Month

Lines in Service

ARBU

+27%

In AR$

60.1 60.564.4

69.6

76.2

4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

9

4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 DriversDrivers ofof ARBUARBU increaseincrease::

� Monthly Fee Tariff increases for Business Clients (17%

of CB) .

� The process of the tariff adjustment enabled by the

Argentine Digital Law has started. Decree 267/15

maintains and simplifies the original criteria for pricing

adjustments.

� Continous increase in penetration of packs of services:

80% of customer base.

Market

Share*46.4% 46.5%46.5% 46.5%

*Market share calculated based on Company estimates

46.5%

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Mobile: capturing growth through increased data penetration and revenue Mobile: capturing growth through increased data penetration and revenue securizationsecurization

FY15FY14

PxQ

Bundle

18% 28%

42% 32%

40% 40%

Browsing SMS + Content

Voice

Prepaid

Postpaid

FY15FY14

Revenue Mix Mobile services revenue mixCustomer Base (Mill)

13.2 13.3

6.5 6.3

4Q154Q14

Prepaid

Postpaid 1

19.6 19.7

FY15FY14

10

Data penetration,

Monthly unique users in million

10%

8.57.7

367566

FY14

+54%

FY15

1 Includes Dongles

FY15FY14

Data Usage MBOU/month

FY14

+67%

FY15

ARPU Browsing AR$/month

3Q15 4Q15

+500K

POSTPAID GROSS ADDS

~20% on 4G network

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Mobile: monetizing through Data Mobile: monetizing through Data CentricCentric PlansPlans

sep-15 dec-15

Non

Data

Centric

Data

Centric

•25% of the total Postpaid are Data Centric

Plans

•18% of the resets of data quotas came from

subs with Data Centric plans

•During December 2015 revenues coming

from data quotas resetting represented 6% of

the Total Data Revenues of 4Q15

Data Centric Subs

+350%

67%

33%

Migrations Adds

11

25%

35%

45%

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015

Browsing & Content Voice

Focus

Product

Portfolio

Offering

Lever

“Enabling platform for

customer preference”

Connectivity concept

Based on Platforms

Transformation is accelerating

As a percentage of Service Revenues

�Addressing

opportunities

� Consumer behavior

changing fast to data

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Sell Out LTE Devices

Mobile Mobile –– Focus on 4GFocus on 4G

Main cities with 4G coverage

��5656%% ofof thethe totaltotal traffictraffic isis fromfrom videovideo sitessites��5656%% ofof thethe totaltotal traffictraffic isis fromfrom videovideo sitessites

+85%

Non LTE LTEApr/May Jul/Aug Apr/May Jul /Aug

5%

Average ARPU 4G ARPU*

14%

12

� As of today more than 1400 sites installed.

(+85% of the total are modernized or new sites).

� Presence in more than 335 locations in 18 provinces.

� Offering higher speed and capacity.

� Integrated and modernized 2G/3G/4G network with

state-of-the-art technology.

4G Customers

FY14 FY15

0.2

1.9x10

4G early adoption

��5656%% ofof thethe totaltotal traffictraffic isis fromfrom videovideo sitessites

��11..33GbGb isis thethe averageaverage datadata consumptionconsumption ((146146%% higherhigher thanthan nonnon--

44GG clientsclients))

��5656%% ofof thethe totaltotal traffictraffic isis fromfrom videovideo sitessites

��11..33GbGb isis thethe averageaverage datadata consumptionconsumption ((146146%% higherhigher thanthan nonnon--

44GG clientsclients))

URU

MEX

CHI

COL

ARG

PER

BOL

BRA

Number of quarters to achieve 2% of the subscriber base

16

15

9

8

8

6

3

3

Network Rollout

In million

* Corresponds to total ARPU of customers using only 4G technology

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4,851 5,427 7,844

3,530 2,256

FY13 FY14 FY1525%

12%

24%

13%

26%

CapexCapex –– InfraestructureInfraestructure as a key enableras a key enabler

Million of AR$

Capex Evolution

% Revenues 25%18%

+85%

27%

Capex Breakdown

Spectrum

10,1008,957

+13%

FY14

+70%

Mobile Sites

FY15 FY14 FY15

+52%

FTTx

+45%

13

� During 2015 the Company achieved the fastest deployment

of an integrated and modernized AWS + 700 MHZ 4G network

in Latam.

�Personal is the only operator in Argentina that has developed

an infrastructure with dual bands in all its 4G sites (700 MHz +

AWS), while it is the first in Latam to build a fully new multi-

tecnological network (2G/3G/4G).

�More than 5,000 Km of fiber for access network were

deployed.

Mobile

Access

Fixed Access Core &

Infraestruct *

IT Others

Note: *Core & infrastructure refers to network related capex, including quality and innovation capex.

Network Achievements

Main targets:

� Competitive network

� Improved customer experience

� Focus on 4G

� 2G / 3G evolution + migration

(Excludes spectrum)

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2G / 3G / 4G

Multi-standard equipment (SDR)

2G & 3G

2G

850

2G

1900

3G

1900

Spectrum Usage42,5 MHz

(850 and 1900 Bands)

100 MHz

(700, 850, 1900 and AWS

Bands)

Technology and

shelter ocupation

Personal : Only operator Personal : Only operator in Latam that has built a in Latam that has built a fullyfully new new multimulti--tecnologicaltecnological networknetwork(2G/3G/4G)(2G/3G/4G)

Before upgrade After upgrade

14

Sectors 3 sectors per site 6 sectors per site

Energy Autonomy 2 hs. 4 hs.

• Telecom Personal has tested the simultaneous use of 4G bands (Carrier Aggregation) and registered sustained speeds

up to 175 Mbps, achieving the highest measurement recorded so far in the country.

• Simultaneous use of the frequency bands 1700 / 2100Mhz (AWS) and 700 MHz (APT) will provide better coverage and

higher speeds, enhancing the overall browsing experience.

Carrier Aggregation

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AgendaAgenda

Market Overview

Business Highlights

Financials

Q&A

15

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3,202

+25%

8,702

10,866

TEO Group: Consolidated Results TEO Group: Consolidated Results

IFRS, Million of AR$, Percentage

Revenues EBITDA

33,341

40,496+21%

IFRS, Million of AR$, Percentage

20%22% 21% 24% 24%

4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

Service Rev growth in Argentina (Yoy)

-491-55

9001,431

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Handset Results - Mobile in Argentina

Before capitalization of SAC & SRC

Handsets Revenues – Costs (in million of AR$)

16

6,570 7,564

2,112 2,634

2,007 2,501

2,067

2,529

2,516

3,202

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

8,702

EBITDA Mg 30% 28% 26% 27%Regulated

Revenues10% 8% 7% 7%

+17%

+25%

+23% +15%

+19%

+19%

33,341

+25%

1Q

2Q

+22%

3Q

Lower quantity of handsets sold (-23% YoY vs FY14) due to import limitations in Argentina

+30%4Q

+27%+22% +15%

22,117 27,287

7,466 8,872

8,119 9,624

8,598 10,094

9,158

11,906

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

1Q

3Q

2Q

4Q

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8,7026,199

953 452 961,662 646

721 586 825 10,866

22% 19%11% 5%

30%20% 22%

18%28%

YoY

Variation+2,164; +25%

IFRS, Million of AR$

EBITDA FY14 – FY15

TEO Group: Consolidated TEO Group: Consolidated costs costs and and EBITDA EBITDA evolutionevolution

EBITDA FY14 Ss. Revenues &

other incomes

Handsets

Sales

Handsets Costs ITX Costs Labor Costs Taxes Other Marketing

& Sales

Fees for services,

maint. and

materials

Others* EBITDA FY15

EBITDA Margin

-1.1%+0.9% +0.2% 0.0% +0.3% 26.8%-0.5%26.1%FY14FY15

* Others includes bad debt expenses, provisions, VAS costs and others

As % of Revenues 10% 10%5% 18% 10% 9%11%

17

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18

839 801

1,029 646

3,673

3,403

1,225

1,311

1,600

1,770

+14%

TEO Group: Consolidated ResultsTEO Group: Consolidated Results

IFRS, Million of AR$, PercentageNet Income

attributable to Telecom

Operating Income

+7%

+14%6,229

5,443 -7%

3Q

4Q+11%

-5%

-37%

3Q

4Q

IFRS, Million of AR$, Percentage

19%

2,685 3,202

889 1,028

916 928

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

3,966 4,518

1,377 1,680

1,241 1,468

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

18

O. Income

Margin18% 17% 12% 12%16% 15% 11% 8%

+16%

Net Income

Margin

+22% 1Q

2Q+1%+18%

1Q

2Q

Page 20: 4Q15 Earnings Release€¦ · 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 167.3 178.5 201.6 217.4 231.5 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Monthly Churn ARPU (AR$) Fixed Fixed ––UBB

TEO TEO GroupGroup: Net : Net IncomeIncome EvolutionEvolution

3,729

2,164 1,378

1,355 275

3,435

Period D & A

3G/4G

Spectrum

Amortization

Total

FY14 3,223 20 3,243

FY15 4,115 323 4,438

in million of AR$ FY14 FY15

Net Interests $ 265 -$ 526

Gains on Mutual Funds &

other inv.$ 289 $ 601

FX results -$ 275 -$ 1,140

Results on NDF $ 0 $ 0

Others -$ 26 -$ 37

Total $ 253 -$ 1,102

19

Net Income FY14* EBITDA D&A, Results on

disposal of PP&E and

write-down of PP&E

Net Financial Results Income Tax Expense Net Income FY15*

Full effect of Δ FX

without hedging

measures and WK

management

would have been:

~AR$ -1,880 MM

Mitigated Impact

U$S Dollar

& Dollar Link

Bonds

NDFFX Cash Exposure as

of Nov-15

Net Accounts

Payable & Debt

HEDGING POSITION PRIOR TO AR$ DEVALUATION

Actions taken to limit FX

impact:

�Prepayments of accounts

payables denominated in

foreign currency

�Anticipated capex

denominated in foreign

currency

Δ AR$ 1,100 MM

* Total Net Income includes the part attributable to Telecom and the non-controlling interest

Page 21: 4Q15 Earnings Release€¦ · 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 167.3 178.5 201.6 217.4 231.5 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Monthly Churn ARPU (AR$) Fixed Fixed ––UBB

745

1,823 1,631

2,256 61 170

849

2,277

IFRS, Million of AR$ - Last 12 months

TEO TEO GroupGroup: FCF, Net : FCF, Net FinancialFinancial Position & Position & FinancingFinancing

Free Cash Flow = 192

Operating free Cash FlowFree Cash Flow

Net Financial

Position

FY14

(Net Cash)

Net Financial

Position

FY15

(Net Debt)

Net Interest

& OthersFX

Variations

Operating

Free Cash

Flow1

Taxes Dividend

Payments2

Spectrum

Payment

10,866 7,8441,199

EBITDA Capex Δ WK & others

20

NoteS:(1) OFCF: Operating Free Cash Flow before Taxes(2) Includes $45 Million related to Nucleo dividend payments to third parties, net of income tax

Free Cash Flow = 192

Telecom Personal’s Notes

On December 10th 2015, Telecom Personal successfully completed the issuance process of two series of Notes for a total nominal

value of AR$720.5 million:

� 18-month bullet maturity, at a composite interest rate (fixed rate of 28.5% up to the 6th month

and floating rate from the 7th month, BADLAR rate + 375bps)

� 36-month bullet maturity, at a composite interest rate (fixed rate of 28.75% up to the 9th

month and floating rate from the 10th month, BADLAR rate + 400bps)

$ 571.5 MM

$ 149.0 MM

SERIES I

SERIES II

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AgendaAgenda

Market Overview

Business Highlights

FinancialsFinancials

Q&A

21