4Developers 2015: Startup - czy masz szansę? - Krzysztof Daniel

My own business - do I have a chance?Krzysztof Daniel

ex IBMerex Red Hatterwork @ Currency OneI like games

About me

"Go board part" by Dilaudid - Own work; modified from Image:Go_board.jpg, which was made by user:donarreiskoffer. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0

So, why are you here?

Xkcd.com, CC-BY-NC

Fast forward...

But...

A word of warning

So, let’s continue

Absolutely no customer has a need to make you profitable.

First of all – user needs

ActivitiesPracticesKnowledgeData

Secondly - components

Let’s talk about ideas

●printing


●printing●digital camera


●printing●digital camera●mobile phone touch interface


●printing●digital camera●mobile phone touch interface●cloud


●printing●digital camera●mobile phone touch interface●cloud●electricity


One problem with the future

A bit of theory

The diffusion curve

The diffusion curve

http://www.lef.csc.com/publications/911

Let’s cheat

f(time)g(time)

Let’s cheat

Let’s define:

Let’s cheat!

Let’s define:●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.

Let’s cheat!

Let’s define:●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.●Certainty - how well understood a thing is.

Let’s cheat!

Let’s define:●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.●Certainty - how well understood a thing is.

Let’s cheat!

Ubiquity

Certainty

Time removed.http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014/03/on-mapping-and-evolution-axis.html

Evolution vs Product

http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014_11_01_archive.html

Evolution curve - idealized

The Evolution Axis

Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)

Weak signals

http://blog.gardeviance.org/2015/03/evolution-diffusion-hype-cycle-and.html

Profits

a.k.a. Wonder - I wonder what it can do.●New●Novel●Unknown●Uncertain●Rare●Changing●Chaotic

Genesis

Nobody did that before!

Are you sure?

Are you ready to fail fast?

Genesis-like idea

Microsoft Bob

http://news.yahoo.com/directly-fail-worst-tech-product-132527744.html

●bottled water for pets

Thirsty dog

crispy beeftangy fish

Thirsty dog

15th century

And some successes, too

The Internet - 1969

Some other successes

Do I have a chance?

You will die before you make any money out of it.*

Do I have a chance?

*or at least get very old, as the evolution speed accelerates

The Evolution Axis


●Measured●Stable●Predictable●Cost of doing business●Market penetration near 100%●Usually invisible to the user●Electricity, Network, Computing

Utility

●contract to fulfill●sheer price matters●no room for innovation●really large scale●nobody will see that●existing users may not be willing to switch unless you’re significantly cheaper

ocan you be significantly cheaper without deep experience in the field?

Startup problems

Do I have a chance?

New electricity provider?


Value

power

computing power

social network

“New” search engine?

The Evolution Axis


●custom built

●off-the-shelf product/rental

●maturing

Transitional phase

●IBM Watson

●cars

●virtual personal assistants (Google Now, Apple Siri, Amazon Echo)

product-to-product startup

Canonical vs Red Hat●a number of years of really unsuccessful fight●tough competition of free, open sourced products●huge inertia proportional to the size of adopter community●product needs to be 9x better to cause replacement*●entering still possible, time-proportional market share

product-to-product startup

* heard from one business angel, may be an approximation

No. Unless you’ve got ●a really, really good product●a really, really good sales●a lot of time

Do I have a chance?

Three types of innovation●genesis●product-to-product, utility to utility

That said...

Three types of innovation●genesis●product-to-product, utility-to-utility●there is one more...

That said...

Let’s go back to evolution


Value

wonder



Value

peaceful competitionwonder



Value

wall of

inertia


previous success is the deadliest enemy

Inertia

●to increase the overall effectiveness of sales departments [...];

●to improve the effectiveness of sales to large customers [...];

●[...] more precise monitoring of the level of customer satisfaction[...];

●[...] price policy (promotional offers, packaging of services) [...];

●[...] ATMAN Private Cloud [...];

●[...] sales of services outside Poland [...].

Inertia

http://media.atm.com.pl/en/pr/291131/atm-publishes-its-financial-report-for-the-third-quarter-of-2014



Value

wall of

inertia


companies stop here

●is a deadly threat to corporations●is the sweet spot for startups

the wall of inertia

takes product, makes “cost of doing business” utilityexamples:●Amazon EC2●Neostrada

product-to-utility startup

●effectiveness - when the price defends youowhat is the cost of your own datacenter/e-mail server?oSomething is so cheap, that suddenly everyone can afford it

lFord TlCommodore 64lPrinted books

●Jevons effect

Industrialization

Do I have a chance?

Absolutely!

Do I have a chance?

Open Source

Open Source

●IBM PC vs Apple Mac

●Google Android vs Apple iOS

●Sony Betamax vs JVC VHS

Open Approach

Ecosystem

The Wardley Mapping is really powerful technique:lHS2lHM GovernmentlDutch GovernmentlTwo very large banks

Why?

About the presentation

There is time only for this...

I work on a tool designed for mapping.

The tool is open-source (ASL 2.0).

I need you to start using it.

You need to be AWARE!

Reasons

certain kind of very interesting innovationsscale mattersdifferent scales requires different approachesopen source helpsbeware of inertia

Do I have a chance - summary

Questions?

CreditsSimon Wardley - the technique creator

4Developers 2015: Startup - czy masz szansę? - Krzysztof Daniel

Software

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