4B Hoff Assessing and Managing Risk
Transcript of 4B Hoff Assessing and Managing Risk
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QuotesQuotes
• Plato– “Necessity is the mother of invention”
• Mark Twain – “Necessity is the mother of taking chances”
• Mike Hoff“ f– “Taking unnecessary chances [risks] is the mother of… invasion”
– “Invasion should be the mother of:Invasion should be the mother of:• Invention and• PREVENTION”PREVENTION
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Assessing and Managing Risk: What Is the Difference?
How Can We Assess and Manage Risk?Who Can Help Me?Who Can Help Me?
Michael HoffU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Bl i t MNBloomington, MN
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DefinitionsDefinitions
• Risk Assessment:– Risk characterization
• Risk Management:– …weighing [and implementing] policy alternatives
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DefinitionsDefinitions
• Risk Screening:g– Rapid (hours) risk assessment
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DefinitionsDefinitions
• Species Risk:p– Risk characterization of a species independent of
whether it is being moved by humans• Pathway Risk:
– Human means, and other means of transport/movement of a single or many invasivetransport/movement, of a single or many invasive species
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A Label on a jar of peanuts
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Historically, FWS Risk Assessments St t f th A twere State-of-the-Art
• If that art was finger paintingg p g
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Bests Predictors of Species Invasionests ed cto s o Spec es as o
F i b t di t f i i• For a species, best predictors of invasiveness are:– “History of invasiveness”
“Climate/Habitat match:”– Climate/Habitat match:• Climate match
– Between locations where established,Between locations where established, and
– Target locations (e.g., US)• Habitat Match
– “Propagule Pressure”
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My/FWS Approach: Species Rapid Risk Assessment Spec es ap d s ssess e t
(Screening Process)
• Detailed (6 page) procedure used to• Detailed (6 page) procedure used to conduct the screening
• Information/data/outputs/synthesis p ypackaged in standardized format
• Supervisory and other internal peer reviewreview
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Species Screening Report Outline
• Native Range, and Status in the United States• Biology and Ecology• Biology and Ecology • Impacts of Introductions• Global DistributionGlobal Distribution• Climate Matching with US• Risk Assessment
– Summary of Risk to the US• High Risk Species:
– Projections of establishment and impacts in US• Within habitats, and for ecosystem components
References• References
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Great Lakes Restoration InitiativeG eat a es esto at o t at e
• I have received funding for conducting rapid screening to g g p gsupport regulatory and non-regulatory decision making– Last three years 2,000 species screened in DRAFT
fform• Screening reports are being posted online
– FWS website– FWS website– Comments on reports enabled
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FWS Screening Results: Species ExamplesSpecies Examples
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Spiny WaterfleaSp y ate ea
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Spiny WaterfleaSp y ate ea
• History of Invasiveness:y– It has caused major changes in the zooplankton
community structure…competes directly with small fi h d h i t l ktfishes and can have impact on zooplankton community (USEPA 2008).
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Spiny WaterfleaSp y ate ea
• Risk Assessment Elements– History of Invasiveness: High– Climate Match: High– Overall Risk Assessment Category: High
• Certainty of Assessment: High
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Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia (VHS)a e o ag c Sept ce a ( S)
• Internationally significant fish diseasey g– Caused massive mortalities of fishes in many areas
• Documented in Lake Superior, other Great Lakes, elsewhere
• Can be transported in water and bait
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History of Invasiveness: VHSsto y o as e ess S
• Mortalities of fishes including:g– Bluegill– Black crappie– Muskellunge– Yellow perch
O– Other species
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VHSS• Risk Assessment Elements
– History of Invasiveness: HighHistory of Invasiveness: High– Climate Match: High– Overall Risk Assessment Category: High g y g
• Certainty of Assessment: High
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Quagga MusselQuagga usse
• Risk Assessment Elements– History of Invasiveness: High– Climate Match: High– Overall Risk Assessment Category: High
• Certainty of Assessment: High
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Monoecious Hydrilla• RAMP climate match: Current conditions
– High climate match with MN
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Monoecious Hydrillao oec ous yd a
• Risk Assessment Elements– History of Invasiveness: High– Climate Match: High– Overall Risk Assessment Category: High
• Certainty of Assessment: High
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Uncertain Risk SpeciesUncertain Risk Species
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MarmorkrebsClimate Match for Continental U.S.:
Current Climate Conditions
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Ecological Risk Screening Summary:M k b i l ti t U SMarmorkrebs in relation to U.S.
• Risk Assessment Elements– History of Invasiveness: None– Climate Match: Medium– Overall Risk Assessment Category: Uncertain
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Low Risk SpeciesLow Risk Species
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Betta (Betta splendens)etta ( etta sp e de s)Risk Assessment • History of Invasiveness: None documentedHistory of Invasiveness: None documented
– No impacts documented.• Climate Match: Low (0.000 ‐ Lowest possible)• Overall Risk Assessment Category: Low
– Certainty of Assessment: High
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Accounting for Climate Changeccou t g o C ate C a ge
• FWS has developed a tool that projects climate nichep p j– 2050, 2070– IPCC emission scenarios:
• No change• Increased impact scenarios
O– Output maps and scores climate match– Peer review completed
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Results of Pathway Risk Assessment: yGreat Lakes Jurisdictional
Illegal Trade and Transport ofIllegal Trade and Transport ofLive Organisms
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Methodset ods
• Pathway Risk Analysis Task Team: Questionnairey y Q– Submitted to GLFC LE Committee – Questionnaire responses/scores analyzed for:
• Risk Assessment – Level – & Confidence in assessment responses
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Range of pathway risk ranks. (0 = No Risk, 4-6= Medium, 7-10 = High Risk)(0 No Risk, 4 6 Medium, 7 10 High Risk)
10Risk Rank
6789
Unacceptable
3456
Upper RangeLower Range
012
N/A
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ConclusionsCo c us o s
• Risk Reduction needed in one or more jurisdictions forj– All Pathways except Biological Supply
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Examples of Pathways for AIS(i ti l d )(in no particular order)
• Watercraft• Lake Service Providers• Live Bait• Water Gardens• Horticulture• Aquaria• Aquaria• Internet• Live FoodLive Food• Illegal stocking• Connections with infested waters
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How Can I/We conduct risk Assessments?o Ca / e co duct s ssess e ts
• Species Risk Assessmentsp– I can train you, or provide completed products
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How can I/We conduct risk Assessments?o ca / e co duct s ssess e ts
• Pathway Risk Assessmentsy– You can conduct pathway risk assessment by:
• [DISCLAIMER]– The following are EXAMPLES—for illustrative
purposes only
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How can I/We conduct risk Assessments?o ca / e co duct s ssess e ts
• Pathway Risk Assessmentsy– You CAN conduct pathway risk assessment by:
• During boat inspections:– Continue to document/record/enforce violations
(depending on authorities)Potentially ask questions about:– Potentially ask questions about:
» Whether boats were plying infested waters within the previous X days (boat risk)p y ( )
» Awareness/compliance with state regulations (boater risk)
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How can I/We conduct risk Assessments?o ca / e co duct s ssess e ts
• Pathway Risk Assessmentsy• Develop survey questions, and seek analytical
support from those with social science ti ???expertise…???» UMN Sea Grant?» UMN Extension?» UMN Extension?» ?FWS?» ?Others…
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In the endt e e d
• We need to minimize risk of species and pathwaysp p y• Risks vary with location
– Thus, site-specific risk assessment and management needed for, at least, pathways
• You should work with others to assess risk and i k t t t “ l k ”manage risk to protect “your lake”
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There is a silver bullet for AIS: Ri k P tiRisk Prevention
• Develop and implement a comprehensive prevention p p p pand management plan– Based on results of species and pathway risk
tassessments
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Without a Risk-Based Prevention Program, you are working without a net you a e o g t out a etAre you comfortable with that?
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Your Lake is in Our hands….f d f f t tifor now, and for future generations.
“Invasion should be the mother of invention/prevention”