45436-001: Building Capacity for Climate Resilience...1) Climate change information is available to...

Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

Project Number: 45436-001 October 2013

TA–8090: Building Capacity for Climate Resilience —TA Consultants Inception Report

Prepared by Abt Associates and CLIMsystems for the Government of Tajikistan and the Asian Development Bank

TA-8090 Inception Report October 2013

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COMMITTEE OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, GOVERNMENT OF TAJIKISTAN 5/1, Shamsi Str. Dushanbe, 734025 Republic of Tajikistan Contact: Mr. TalbakSalimov Chairman ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Contact: Mr. Makoto Ojiro Director, CWER c/o Cinzia Losenno [email protected] Consultant: Abt Associates 55 Wheeler Street 02138 Cambridge, Massachusetts United States Contact: Ms. Melissa B. Ashcraft Vice President, Contract Operations c/o Michael Westphal [email protected] Deliverable: Inception Report Date: 14 October 2013


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TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Acronyms ................................................................................................................... 5 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 7 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 10

1.1 Mobilization of the Team ....................................................................................... 12

1.1 Missions to Date ................................................................................................... 14

1.2 Office Set-Up ........................................................................................................ 14

CHALLENGES AND KEY ISSUES ..................................................................................... 14 PROJECT OUTPUTS ......................................................................................................... 15

3.1 Output 1: Climate Change Information Is Available to Multiple Users ........................ 15

1.1.1 Establishment of a Climate Modeling Facility (Year 1) ................................... 17

1.1.1.1 Procurement of Equipment (Year 1) ........................................................ 18

1.1.1.2 Climate Model Selection (Year 1)............................................................ 20

1.1.2 Train Personnel of Climate Modeling Facility (Years 1–4) .............................. 21

1.1.3 Develop Climate Change Dynamical Downscaling (Year 2–3) ....................... 22

1.1.4 Develop Impact Assessments for Priority Sectors (Years 1, 2) ...................... 22

1.1.5 Establish a Climate Data Management System (Years 1–4) .......................... 25

1.1.6 Develop Climate Science Modules for Education Curricula (Years 1) ............ 25

3.2 Output 2: Climate Change Risks Are Integrated into Tajikistan’s Development Projects ........................................................................................................................................... 28

3.2.1 Review National/Sector Programs and National Budgets (Year 1) ................. 29

3.2.2. Develop Climate Risk Screening Tools and Risk Management System for Priority Sectors (Years 1–4) ........................................................................................ 29

3.2.3 Produce Guidance Manual on How to Consult Effectively with Poor and Marginalized Groups (Including Women) (Years 1, 2) ................................................. 35

3.2.4 Provide Climate Risk Management Training (Years 1, 2) ............................... 35

3.2.5 Support National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, with Allocated National Budget (Years 2, 3) ..................................................................................................... 36

3.2.6 Support Local Adaptation Plans in Five Vulnerable Districts (Year 3) ............ 37

3.2.7 Develop Modalities for a Small Grants Facility (Year 2) ................................. 38

3.2.8 Provide Technical Support to Government (Years 1–4) ................................. 39

3.3 Output 3: Knowledge Management Systems Are Developed and Applied ............ 42

3.3.1 Conduct National Surveys on Climate Change Awareness (Years 1 and 3) ... 45

3.3.2 Develop a National Communications Strategy (Years 1) ................................ 46

3.3.3 Conduct Public Awareness Campaigns on Climate Change (Year 2) ............ 46

3.3.4 Develop a Knowledge Management System (Year 1 - 4) ............................... 47

3.3.4.1 Develop Climate Change Portal .............................................................. 47

3.3.4.2 Training of Trainers on Climate Risk ....................................................... 47

3.3.5 Establish a Network of Climate Information Outposts (Year 2) ....................... 48

3.3.6 Produce Annual Publications on the PPCR in Tajikistan and Quarterly Newsletters (Years 1–4) .............................................................................................. 49

3.3.7 Hold Annual Dissemination Events in Local Outposts (Years 1–4) ................. 49

3.3.8 Hold Mid-Term and Final PPCR Conferences (Years 2 and 4) ...................... 49


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3.4 Output 4: Outputs of the PPCR Are Managed for Results ..................................... 52

3.4.1 Assess Current M&E Capacity and Reporting Mechanisms (Year 1) ............. 55

3.4.2 Alignment of Results Framework (Year 1) ...................................................... 56

3.4.3 Data Collection for Baselines and Targets (Year 1) ....................................... 56

3.4.4 Establishment of Overall M&E System for the National PPCR Program (Year 1) 57

3.4.5 Annual Performance Updates and Review of PPCR (Years 1-4) ................... 57

3.4.6 Scorecard Evaluation with Multi-Stakeholder Group (Years 1- 4) ................... 58

3.4.7 Produce Final Report on Lessons Learned (Year 4) ...................................... 58

3.4.8 Facilitate Independent Monitoring and Evaluation (Years 2 and 4) ................. 58

3.4.9 Provide Technical Support (Years 1–4) .......................................................... 58

Review relevant government policies and strategies ................................................... 59

3.5 Output 5: PPCR Secretariat Evolves into a National Implementing Entity ............. 60

3.5.1 Consultations on NIE and Assessment of Financial & Procurement Capabilities 62

3.5.2 Support the Development of the NIE and Formulate Work Plan (Year 2) ....... 64

3.5.3 Develop Financial, Procurement, and Administrative Capacity and Systems (Years 2–3) ................................................................................................................. 64

3.5.4 Advise on Other Climate Finance Opportunities (Years 1–4) ......................... 65

3.5.5 Apply for Adaptation Fund Accreditation (Year 4) .......................................... 65

Annex 1. Project Results Framework .................................................................................. 67 Annex 2. Mission Meeting Schedules to date ...................................................................... 70 Annex 3: Workshop Agendas and Participants Lists ........................................................... 75 Annex 4: Specifications for Renovation of Project Space .................................................... 83 Annex 5: Standards for National Implementing Entity (NIE) Accreditation—Simplified Checklist ............................................................................................................................. 85


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List of Acronyms

AFB Adaptation Fund Board CDM Clean Development Mechanism CDTA Capacity Development Technical Assistance CIF Climate Investment Funds COEP Committee of Environmental Protection EA Executing Agency EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development GCM Global Circulation Model/ Global Climate Model IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPSS Infrastructure Planning and Support System IT information technology KM knowledge management KMK State Unitary Enterprise for Housing and Communal Services M&E monitoring and evaluation MDB multilateral development bank MINIRENA Ministry of Natural Resources MOED Ministry of Economic Development MOF Ministry of Finance NEMA National Environment Management Authority NGO non-governmental organization NIE National Implementing Entity PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience RCCC Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Center RCM Regional Climate Model SCF Strategic Climate Fund TA technical assistance UNDP United Nations Development Programme WB World Bank WRF Weather Research and Forecasting


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List of Figures Figure 1: CDTA Team ......................................................................................................... 13 Figure 2: The Organizational Structure of Hydromet ........................................................... 17 Figure 3: Proposed Climate Modeling Facility Space .......................................................... 18 Figure 4: Diagram of the Computer Cluster ......................................................................... 19 Figure 5: The Approach to Impact Modeling ........................................................................ 24 Figure 6: IPSS User Input Screen ....................................................................................... 32 Figure 7: Summary Screen Showing the Costs of Adaptation for Roads ............................. 33 Figure 8: The Steps in National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Process ................... 37 List of Tables Table 1: Projected Climate Changes for Tajikistan .............................................................. 11 Table 2: Recommended Equipment for the Climate Modeling Facility ................................. 19 Table 3: Advantages and Disadvantages of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling ........... 23 Table 4: Work Plan for Output 1 .......................................................................................... 27 Table 5: Areas of Analysis of the IPSS Tool ........................................................................ 31 Table 6: Work Plan for Output 2 ......................................................................................... 40 Table 7. Knowledge Management Related Activities To Be Executed by Local NGOs ........ 44 Table 8: Subset of Questions for the Climate Change Awareness Survey .......................... 45 Table 9: Work Plan for Output 3 .......................................................................................... 50 Table 10: CIF Core Indicators ............................................................................................. 54 Table 11: Work Plan of Output 4 ......................................................................................... 59 Table 12: Accredited Adaptation Fund NIEs Worldwide ...................................................... 61 Table 13: Possible Candidates for the NIE in Tajikistan ...................................................... 63 Table 14: Output 5 Work Plan ............................................................................................. 65 Table 15: Project Results Framework ................................................................................. 67 Table 16: Key Results and Milestones ................................................................................ 69 Table 17: Meeting Schedule for the Team Leader’s Mission ............................................... 70 Table 18: Schedule for Suman Rimal Gautam, International M&E Specialist ...................... 72 Table 19: Meeting Schedule for Fareeha Iqbal, International Knowledge Management Specialist (August 2013) ..................................................................................................... 72 Table 20: Take Home Messages from Knowledge Management Consultations .................. 73 Table 21: Meeting Schedule for Manmohan Singh Ruprai, Financial Management and Procurement Specialist (August 2013) ................................................................................ 74 Table 22: Climate Modeling Workshop Agenda................................................................... 75 Table 23: Participants for the Climate Modeling Workshop ................................................. 77 Table 24: Program-Level Monitoring Framework Training Workshop for Government Representatives .................................................................................................................. 79 Table 25: Climate Investment Fund M&E Scorecard Workshop .......................................... 79 Table 26: Climate Investment Fund M&E Scorecard Workshop Participants List ................ 80 Table 27: Climate Investment Fund M&E Scorecard Workshop .......................................... 81 Table 28: Summary of Refurbishment Recommendations .................................................. 84 Table 29: Required Competencies for Financial Management and Integrity ........................ 85 Table 30: Required Competencies for Institutional Capacity ............................................... 85 Table 31: Required Competency for Malpractice ................................................................. 86


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SUMMARY

1. The Asian Development Bank has contracted Abt Associates, CLIMsystems (New Zealand), and the Centre for Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction (Tajikistan) to assist the government of Tajikistan in implementing the technical assistance Building Capacity for Climate Resilience1 . The TA was approved by the ADB board in June 2012 and is funded by the Strategic Climate Fund. Abt contract started on 13 May 2013 and is to be completed 17 May 2017.

2. This Inception Report first discusses the climate change vulnerability of Tajikistan. The report outlines the work done during the inception phase, including the mobilization of the team, missions to date, and office set-up; discusses some key challenges and issues; and and describes the progress to date and a more detailed work plan for each of the five main project outputs:

1) Climate change information is available to multiple users. (i) Climate change risks are integrated into Tajikistan’s development projects. (ii) Knowledge management systems are developed and applied. (iii) Outputs of the PPCR are managed for results. (iv) PPCR Secretariat evolves into a "National Implementing Entity."

Progress to Date 3. Output 1: The team conducted a multi-stakeholder climate modeling workshop in Dushan-be, Tajikistan in July 2013. The goal of the workshop was to understand the current climate modeling and information needs in Tajikistan and further develop the work plan for the out-put. During the inception phase, the CLIMsystems’ international climate modeling specialists (Yinpeng Li and Peter Urich) explored climate downscaling options, developed a concept for the Climate Modeling Facility including a provisional list of equipment with cost estimates, and advised the Team Leader Westphal on the needed renovations for the project space on the Hydromet campus. The local Climate Modeling Specialist, Nasridin Minikulov, advised the team on the level of modeling capacity within Hydromet, and past and present training programs. Alla Kuvatova, the Education Specialist, conducted a review of climate change education trainings and an assessment of the universities in Tajikistan that may already have or be suitable for the development of courses on climate science and glaciology. These activities have informed the workplan for this component of the project as described in this document.

4. Output 2: The Team Leader conducted initial consultations with Government and NGO stakeholders on the activities of Output 2 during the initial mission May 2013 and discussed the guidance manual, the local and national climate change strategies, and the Small Grants Facility. The Team Leader has had subsequent conversations on these with topics with NGOs and the UNDP. The international Infrastructure Specialist. Paul Chinowsky, has con-ducted desk analysis of the state of infrastructure in Tajikistan and the impacts of climate on the various infrastructure assets and has elaborated the concept of the screening tool for the infrastructure sector. The list of stakeholders consulted is in Annex 2.

5. Output 3: During August 2013, the international Knowledge Management Specialist, Fareeha Iqbal, visited Tajikistan and met with key Government and NGO stakeholders in order to revisit and refine the work plan. These included the Tajik National University, the Committee on Women and Family Affairs, the Committee of Environmental Protection, Ministry of Agricultural, Committee on Emergency Situations, Youth Ecological Center,

1 ADB. 2012. Technical assistance to Tajikistan for Building Capacity for Climate Resilience. Manila (TA8090-

TAJ. $6,000,000) http://www.adb.org/projects/45436-001/main


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World Without Hunger and a media production company. The list of stakeholders consulted is in Annex 2.

6. Output 4: The main area of progress for this Output was the estimation of baselines and targets for the Climate Investment Fund (CIF) Core Indicators. The project M&E Specialists, Suman Rimal Gautam and Firuz Saidov obtained information related to Indicators 4 and 5 from a review of project documents. The information has been compiled and aggregated in the indicator worksheets obtained from CIF Administrative Unit. For the baseline estimation of the Core Indicators 1 and 2, the project M&E Specialists led two workshops (mostly with Government officials as listed in Annexes 2 and 3) on the scorecard process. However, due to the absence of a larger set NGO representatives and beneficiaries from the investment project sites, the project team believes the process could benefit greatly by holding another workshop by the end of the calendar year to increase the stakeholder engagement and provide additional training and awareness on the CIF indicators and the M&E process.

7. Output 5: During the Inception phase, the Financial Management and Procurement Specialist thoroughly reviewed all Adaptation Fund guidelines, documents and application requirements. During the August mission, the Financial Management and Procurement Specialist and the Team Leader had consultations with several possible candidates for the National Implementing Entity (NIE), including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Committee of Environmental Protection, the National Bank, the Institute of Economy and Finance, and the State Committee on Investment and State Property Management. Based on the results of the consultations, the team has laid out a process for the selection of the NIE and the development of a work plan to provide financial management and procurement training.

Challenges 8.The major challenge during the Inception phase was assembling the entire project team; there are a few notable gaps, including the international Economist and the Public Participa-tion and Social Development Specialist. The latter has been a particular difficulty, because the team has had some issues with bringing together a broad enough group of stakeholders for the workshops, particularly for the M&E workshops. The team believes this will be re-solved now that the Office Manager is on-board, who can help with meeting logistics; con-tracting the Public Participation and Social Development Specialist in the near-term should also ameliorate this greatly. Issues

9. Given the information and input we have compiled to date, the project team has identified a number of key issues that we propose form the basis of the agenda during the Inception Workshop:

i. Selection of the climate model and equipment. To adequately vet the recommen-dations in the report, the project team proposes to organize an Ad Hoc Climate Modeling Advisory Group. For example, the project only calls for dynamical downscaling, but statistical downscaling can be more useful for impact modeling, where an ensemble of many model runs is important. These issues and other recommendations would benefit from further discussion by experts in the field, and a fuller understanding by the stakeholders of the choices available to them along with their implications for future investment, training, and usefulness.

ii. The choice of sectors for the screening tool and the sequence of that work. The team recommends starting with the infrastructure sector, where the team has special expertise, and using that experience to guide the development of tools for other sectors.


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iii. Specifications for databases and knowledge management systems. The team

would like feedback on the specifications for the systems, most importantly the level of sophistication, accessibility and ease-of-use.

iv. How to best engage stakeholders in the project work. Throughout the report, the team outlines a large number of workshops and consultations, the formation of various working groups, and many specific activities that will be led by NGOs. Given the diverse nature of the project activities, the team would like feedback on how best to coordinate all the project work locally.

v. Sustainability. The team would like to discuss ways to foster sustainability of the project activities after the project ends, including the Climate Modeling Facility, the databases and knowledge management systems, the Small Grants Facility, the climate information outposts. Sustainability must be a topic and a focus from the beginning of the project so that necessary processes, training and systems can be incorporated early. For example, the establishment of the Climate Model-ing Facility includes the provision of sophisticated equipment and various train-ings, yet the ongoing nature of maintenance and training updating must be planned. In addition to catalyzing relationships with international modeling cen-ters, the team would like feedback on other measures to help ensure long-term sustainability of this facility.

10. This list forms the basis of significant and sometimes complex choices that need ad-dressing both during the Inception Workshop and in an ongoing manner during the course of the project, particularly the issue of sustainability. Stakeholder engagement and user inter-ests and capacity must be built up over time, beginning with this critical event.


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1. INTRODUCTION

11. Tajikistan is already vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate-related natural disasters cause $600 million in damage annually or 4.8% of GDP.2 From 1992–2011, Tajikistan was ranked as the 13th most vulnerable country in the world in terms of fatalities and economic losses due to extreme weather events.3 Tajikistan has low adaptive capacity, with a per capita income of $8724. In 2007, about 53% of the population lived below the poverty line, and 17% below the extreme poverty line. About 71% of the poor and 76% of the extremely poor live in rural areas, making them exceptionally susceptible to weather shocks.

12. Tajikistan is dependent on climate-sensitive sectors for income and livelihoods. Agriculture is responsible for about 25% of GDP in Tajikistan, and about 70% of the people in the country live in rural areas where agriculture is the mainstay of the economy (footnote 1). Already during the last decade, desertification grew by 1.3 million ha to a total of 4.3 million ha5, putting pressures on livelihoods. The country depends on hydropower for 98% of its electricity needs.6

13. Climate change poses many challenges for Tajikistan. Mean annual temperature is expected to increase by 0.2-0.4°C in most areas of the country by 2030, compared to 1961–1990 (footnote 5).. More recent analyses using statistical downscaling of global climate models project an increase in mean annual and maximum and minimum daily temperature; more rainfall but reduced snowfall; more variable monthly precipitation; and more extreme daily precipitation for the critically important Pyanj and Vakhsh river basins, which cover 70% of the country’s land area (Table 1).7 Because most agriculture production is in arid and semi-arid areas where there is already serious land degradation, more variable summer precipitation, as well as a greater frequency of very dry spring, summer, and autumn seasons, may exacerbate conditions. Rain-fed agriculture areas are likely to experience an increase in droughts. Earlier snow and ice melt with increased temperatures will likely translate into a seasonal shift in river runoff. This, combined with higher water demand for irrigation in summer, may lead to seasonal water shortages and problems with electricity generation. In the Pyanj basin, summer water shortages are projected to become more frequent and more severe. Lastly, more intense extreme precipitation events are likely to result in more floods and mudslides, seriously affecting infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods.

2 UNDP. 2012. PPCR Tajikistan Phase 1 Component A1 Stocktaking Report and Gap Analysis. Capacity for

Climate Resiliency in Tajikistan: Stocktaking and Institutional Assessment. Consultants’ report. Tajikistan. 3 Harmeling, S, Eckstein, D. 2013. Global Climate Risk Index 2013. Germanwatch.

4 Current USD, 2012. World Bank World Development Indicators, http://databank.worldbank.org

5 UN Economic Commission for Europe. 2012. Tajikistan Environmental Performance Reviews (Second Review).

6 The State Agency for Hydrometeorology and Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of

the Republic of Tajikistan. 2008. Second National Communication of the Republic of Tajikistan under the United Nations Framework Convention. Dushanbe. 7 ADB. 2013. Building the Analytical Base: Summary of Results from Phase 1 Activities of the Pilot Program for

Climate Resilience in Tajikistan, in press; ADB. 2011. Technical Assistance to Tajikistan for Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments. Consultants’ report. Manila (TA 7599-TAJ).


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Table 1: Projected Climate Changes for Tajikistan8

Climate Variable Change

Annual mean air temperature For Pyanj basin: increase from 0.6°C in 2010 to +1.1°C in 2050 and 3.0°C in 2100

For Vakhsh basin: increase from 0.6°C in 2010 to +5.0°C in 2050 and +7.0°C in 2100

Maximum, minimum daily air tempera-tures

Likely to increase

Annual potential evapo-transpiration Will increase due to increase in air temperatures

Mean annual precipitation Unlikely to change overall, but annual rainfall is likely increase, while annual snowfall is likely to decrease

Mean monthly rainfall, snowfall Likely to see significant changes

Magnitude of extreme daily precipitation Likely to increase

14. Recognizing the climate vulnerability of the country, Tajikistan was selected to participate in the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience, a targeted program of the multilateral Strategic Climate Fund. In 2009, the PPCR Subcommittee (the program’s governing body) endorsed Tajikistan’s Strategic Program for Climate Change9 and six priority areas for investing: (i) institutional capacity, (ii) climate science and impact modeling, (iii) public awareness, (iv) the energy sector, (v) land management, and (vi) river basin management. The PPCR in Tajikistan is being implemented in two phases. Phase 2 of the PPCR in Tajikistan is currently underway and is composed of four investment projects and one capacity development technical assistance (CDTA) program: Building Climate Resilience in the Pyanj River Basin Project (ADB); Enhancing the Climate Resilience of the Energy Sector Project (EBRD); Improvement of Weather, Climate and Hydrological Service Delivery Project (WB); Environmental Land Management and Rural Livelihoods Project (WB), and Building Capacity for Climate Resilience (often called CDTA) (ADB). 15. The CDTA project has five major outputs:

(i) Climate change information is available to multiple users. (ii) Climate change risks are integrated into Tajikistan’s development projects. (iii) Knowledge management systems are developed and applied. (iv) Outputs of the PPCR are managed for results (v) PPCR Secretariat evolves into a “National Implementing Entity.”

16. The Executing Agency for Output 1 is the State Administration for Hydrometeorology (hereafter, Hydromet), while the Executing Agency for the Outputs 2 – 5 is the Committee of Environmental Protection (COEP). There are also many important Government ministries and agencies that are part of a larger group of stakeholders, such as Committee for Women

8 Adapted from ADB. 2013. Building the Analytical Base: Summary of Results from Phase 1 Activities of the Pilot

Program for Climate Resilience in Tajikistan, in press. 9 Government of Tajikistan. 2011. Strategic Program for Climate Resilience.

http://www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/cif/sites/climateinvestmentfunds.org/files/SPCR_Tajikistan_revised_012511.pdf


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and Family Affairs. Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Resources, Ministry of Finance, JCC Barki Tojik, Ministry of Agriculture, State Unitary Enterprise, Ministry of Energy and Industry, Committee of Emergency Situation, as well as Non-Governmental Organizations. The CDTA project’s results framework is shown in Annex 1, while Annex 2 lists stakeholders consulted during the Inception phase.

1.1 Mobilization of the Team

17. The project team consists of 10 international and 11 local consultants (Figure 1). During this inception period, much of the team was engaged, although a few gaps remain. The Office Manager (Bahodur Sheraliev) began in August, greatly enhancing the team’s ability to deal with financial and administrative matters in country. Of the local consultants, only the Public Participation Specialist has yet to be identified, while the international Economist still needs to be selected. The team has proposed Sherali Safarov (Agriculture and Land Management Specialist), Vohidjon Hamidov (Climate Modeling Specialist 2), and Davlyatov Rakhimovich (Glaciologist). Peter Urich of CLIMsystems was added to the team as a Climate Modeling and Information Manager.


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Figure 1: CDTA Team

International Consultants

Fareeha Iqbal

Knowledge Management

Specialist

Michael Westphal

Team Leader

Suman Rimal Gautam

M&E

Specialist

Yinpeng Li

Climate Modeling and

Impact Assessment

Specialist

Thomas Noble

Finance and Contracts

Manager

Garth Patterson

Finance and Contracts

Analyst

Manmohan Singh Ruprai

Financial Management and

Procurement Specialist

Peter Urich

Climate Modeling and

Information Manager

National Consultants

Vohidjon Hamidov

(proposed)

Climate Model. Specialist 2

Anvar Homidov

Water Resources Specialist

Saifullo Hikmatov

IT and KM Specialist

Qurbonjon Kabutov

Energy and Transport

Specialist

Alla Kuvatova

Education Specialist

Nasridin Minikulov

Climate Model. Specialist 1

Davlyatov Rakhimovich

(proposed)

Glaciologist

Paul Chinowsky

Infrastructure Specialist

Economist (TBD)

Sherali Safarov (proposed)

Agriculture and Land

Management Specialist

Firuz Saidov

M&E Specialist

Bahodur Sheraliev

Office Manager

Public Participation and

Social Development

Specialist (TBD)

Office Manager


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1.1 Missions to Date

18. The team has conducted three missions to Tajikistan to date, including three workshops (Annex 2). The team leader, Michael Westphal, traveled to Dushanbe from 19–26 May to meet stakeholders for the project, in particular the Government of Tajikistan representatives, as well as donors (World Bank, United Nations Development Programme, the European Union, and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit) and local NGOs (Focus Humanitarian Assistance, Youth Ecological Centre, Mountain Societies Development, Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, Mass Media, and Cooperazione e Sviluppo). In July, Westphal (14–22 July) and Yinpeng Li, the international Climate Modeling and Impact Assessment Specialist (17–20 July) conducted a climate modeling workshop. During that time, Thomas Noble (Finance and Contracts Manager) and Rebecca Gomby (Abt Associates security advisor) focused on financial management, administrative, and security set-up issues. In August, Westphal accompanied Fareeha Iqbal, Suman Rimal Gautam (international M&E Specialist), and Manmohan Singh Ruprai as they met with stakeholders and refined their work plans for their respective project outputs. Suman Gautam and Firuz Saidov, the local M&E Specialist, led two initial workshops with largely Government stakeholders on the scorecard process for the Climate Investment Funds Core Indicators.

1.2 Office Set-Up

19. During the project start-up, the team assessed the renovation needs of the proposed project space provided by Hydromet, which will house both a general project office and the Climate Modeling Facility. They assessed the renovation needs based on livability/functionality, safety and security, and suitability as a modern computer modeling laboratory (Annex 4). After compiling a list of specifications, the team requested three bids from contractors in Dushanbe. The approximate cost of the proposed refurbishment is TJS 100,000 (Annex 5). The team has proposed the use of TA funds for the renovation. Refurbishment is important to meet the project goals of establishing a Climate Modeling Facility. Further due diligence is being undertaken to avoid duplication of effort with government and other donors renovation effort. Renovations are needed in the near-term in order to provide a place to work for the local consultants and to establish the location of the equipment that is needed for the program.

CHALLENGES AND KEY ISSUES

20. The major challenge during the Inception phase was assembling the entire project team; there are a few notable gaps, including the international Economist and the Public Participa-tion and Social Development Specialist. The latter has been a particular difficulty, because the team has had some issues with bringing together a broad enough group of stakeholders for the workshops, particularly the M&E workshops without this additional assistance availa-ble to help mobilize these organizations and individual stakeholders.

21. There are a number of key issues that could form the basis of the agenda during the In-ception Workshop:

i. Selection of the climate model and equipment. The team would like additional feedback on the recommendations in the report, including the establishment of an Ad Hoc Climate Modeling Advisory Group. Moreover, the project only calls for dynamical downscaling, but statistical downscaling can be more useful for impact modeling, where an ensemble of many model runs is important. The benefit of additional discussion and in particular input from a set of international experts is that this process will ratify the final decision and also ensures that there is ade-quate discussion of the options and decision points before a final decision is


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made, so that the stakeholders can be assured that the decision is based on in-ternationally accepted rationales.

ii. The choice of sectors for the screening tool and the sequence of that work. The team recommends starting with the infrastructure sector, where the team has special expertise, and using that experience to guide the development of tools for other sectors. There is a lot of uncertainty about the precise balance between tool complexity, ease of use and accessibility, as well as how to integrate tools best in to the planning processes, so developing one tool first might be a good tack.

iii. Specifications for databases and knowledge management systems. The team

would like Input on the specifications for these, most importantly the level of so-phistication, accessibility and ease-of-use so that it can better be tailored to the needs of the users and the initial capacity of the implementors at project start-up.

iv. How to best engage stakeholders in the project work. Throughout the report, the

team outlines a large number of workshops and consultations, the formation of various working groups, and many specific activities that will be led by NGOs. Given the diverse nature of the project activities, the team recommends conduct-ing open discussions about this topic during the workshop, so that all participating organizations buy into the process and also understand their roles and responsi-bilities going forward to coordinate the project work locally. The importance of beginning this discussion now and assigning roles and responsibilities feeds into the topic below: sustainability.

v. Sustainability. The team would like to discuss ways to foster sustainability of the

project activities after the project ends, including the Climate Modeling Facility, the databases and knowledge management systems, the Small Grants Facility, the climate information outposts. For example, the establishment of the Climate Modeling Facility includes the provision of sophisticated equipment and various trainings. However, besides catalyzing relationships with international modeling centers, the team would like to facilitate a discussion and work with the partici-pants to develop action steps and assign responsibilities to begin to implement other measures to help ensure long-term sustainability of this facility.

PROJECT OUTPUTS

3.1 Output 1: Climate Change Information Is Available to Multiple Users

Performance Targets

Climate Modeling Facility established by Year 1

Climate change projections (dynamical downscaling) completed by Year 2

Climate impact assessments completed by Year 2 on water resources, energy, and agriculture and by Year 3 on transport and social development

Climate change science modules integrated into one university by Year 1

Progress to Date

22. The team conducted a multi-stakeholder climate modeling workshop in Dushanbe, Tajik-istan in July 2013 (Annex 2). The goal of the workshop was to understand the current cli-


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mate modeling and information needs in Tajikistan, both from the perspective of Hydromet and the users of climate information, and to further develop the Output 1 Work Plan, includ-ing recommendations on the creation of the Climate Modeling Facility and the development of the climate downscaling and climate impact modeling, training, and climate science cur-riculum. The CLIMsystems’ international climate modeling specialists explored climate downscaling options, developed a concept for the Climate Modeling Facility including a pro-visional list of equipment with cost estimates, and advised the Team Leader on the needed renovations for the project space on the Hydromet campus. Following his review of the or-ganization, Nasridin Minikulov, the local Climate Modeling Specialist, advised the team on the level of modeling capacity within Hydromet and past and present training programs. Alla Kuvatova, the Education Specialist, conducted a review of climate change education train-ings and an assessment of the universities in Tajikistan that already conduct or may be suit-able for the development of courses on climate science and glaciology.

23. Output 1 involves establishing a Climate Modeling Facility in Year 1 and providing training on climate change modeling to Hydromet staff. It also includes supporting Hydromet with the selection of models and approaches for downscaling climate data, conducting risk assessments, developing education curriculum, and establishing a climate data management system. While the training in this Output is focused on Hydromet, the goal of the climate data management system is to provide climate change information to multiple users.

24. There is already some capacity in Hydromet for downscaling global climate model (GCM) data for analyzing impacts of climate change in Tajikistan, which was built up through prior analytical support for Tajikistan’s First and Second National Communications and ADB’s Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments project (TA 7599) and other technical assistance projects.10 These included extensive training of Hydromet staff and built a foundation for further climate modeling (See Figure 2 for the structure of Hydromet). However, Hydromet still lacks financing and access to reliable equipment, technology, and software for independently conducting further climate modeling, and its staff could benefit from additional training to bolster their computer and technical skills (Box 1). Senior staff from Hydromet identified a number of major deficiencies in Tajikistan for weather forecasting and climate change modeling:

Shortage of professional staff

Lack of educational institutions for the study of hydrometeorology

Old and poorly calibrated equipment

Lack of logistical support for regional hydrometeorological stationsa

25. In addition, further climate modeling using dynamical downscaling is needed to better address the complex topography in Tajikistan.

10

ADB. 2011. Technical Assistance to Tajikistan for Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Project. Consultants’ report. Manila (TA 7599-TAJ); ADB. 2010. Technical Assistance for Enabling Water and Adaptation Interventions in Central and West Asia. Manila.


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Figure 2: The Organizational Structure of Hydromet

Source: Hydromet

The following sections provide the team’s approach to each of the key activities for Output 1.

The complete Work Plan for Output 1 is found in Table 4.

1.1.1 Establishment of a Climate Modeling Facility (Year 1)

26. The establishment of a sustainable Climate Modeling Facility requires not only sophisticated models and equipment, but long-term relationships with international centers of expertise on climate modeling. Through the training programs described below, the team will foster partnerships between Hydromet and institutions such as the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Beijing Normal University, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and the UK Met Office. In addition, the team plans to create an Ad Hoc Climate Modeling Advisory Group in the Second Quarter of Year 1 to discuss and validate the preliminary assessments on equipment and models. The group will convene by videoconference and other means as appropriate, and we propose a site visit by 1-2 experts in the Second Quarter of Third Quarters of Year 1 subject to approval of this activity as recommended in this Inception Report.


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Figure 3: Proposed Climate Modeling Facility Space

Source: CDTA team

1.1.1.1 Procurement of Equipment (Year 1) 27. Hydromet has identified and assigned the project three rooms on the Hydromet campus that will serve as both the office space for the project and the Climate Modeling Facility (Figure 3). Annex 5 provides details on the recommended refurbishments that are needed to provide an adequate environment and security for both equipment and personnel.

28. There are essentially two broad equipment options for establishing a modern climate modeling facility: either a supercomputer or a cluster of computers with fast processors linked together. The team has concluded that a supercomputer is not the most viable option. Firstly, the cost of a supercomputer would easily exceed the equipment budget of the project ($624,000). Secondly, a supercomputer takes extremely sophisticated skills to maintain. Lastly, a supercomputer would be less resilient and more vulnerable; if the mainframe is down, no modeling can be conducted. However, a loss of one computer in a cluster would not significantly slow down operations.

29. Therefore, the team proposes creating a computer cluster in Year 1 consisting of 15 computers with dual central processing units (CPUs) and 1,000 terabytes of storage. Based on CLIMsystems’ knowledge of computer processing power, this number of dual core processors running the Linux operating system would provide more than enough computing power for climate modeling. Figure 4 shows the configuration of a hypothetical computer cluster. The team has researched rough cost estimates for this equipment and possible attendant software, compiled in Table 2. Once the computer cluster is installed, the local Information Technology (IT) and Knowledge Management specialist will manage day-to-day operations.

30. In order to achieve a fully-functioning modeling facility, additional computer hardware and a suite of software are needed. Some examples: include Matlab (general modeling), Fortan (programming), R (statistical analyses), and ArcGIS and Python (Geographic Information Systems). As mentioned briefly above, the team plans to validate this assessment of equipment requirements with the Ad Hoc Climate Modeling Advisory Group. Once the team receives final approval from the ADB and Hydromet and after the refurbishment of the space on the Hydromet campus, the team will procure the equipment through an international competitive bidding process, consistent with ADB guidelines. The equipment will be installed by the Third Quarter of Year 1.


19

Figure 4: Diagram of the Computer Cluster

Source: CDTA team

Table 2: Recommended Equipment for the Climate Modeling Facility

Hardware/Software11

Description Approximate

Costs

Computer cluster 15 units and 1,000 terabyte storage including uninterrupted power supply (UPS) and incidentals such as cabling and cabinets

Hewlett Packard Estimate: $235,268 (plus tax) IBM estimate: $199,155 (plus tax)

Installation costs not included

Desktops 6 Intel Core i7 3930K 6 CORE 3.2GHz Processor

$14,789

Laptops 2 Intel i7 2.6GHz 4GB

$3491

Microsoft Windows operating system

8 units $1,200

Microsoft Office 8 units Explore 365 pricing plan:

$3,400 per year (home and business version)

Virus protection 8 units plus clus-ter solution

Bitefender small business:

$320

11

Note: This is indicative software for the computer cluster


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per year

ArcGIS 2 units $3,000

ArcGIS 3 yrs renewal $9,000

Linux operating system

30 units Free

WRF 1 unit Free

Visual Studio 6 units $3,000

Fortran 3 units $2,547

Matlab 1 unit $2,150

R 3 units Free

Python 6 units Free

SUM 242,052 - 278,165

1.1.1.2 Climate Model Selection (Year 1) 31. During the Inception phase, the project climate modeling specialists conducted an initial assessment of available dynamical downscaling models (Regional Climate Models – RCMs) based on these criteria:

Scientific merit of the model

Portability

Potential application for weather forecast modelling for Tajikistan (for future

needs of Hydromet)

User group and public acceptance

Training, technical support and sustainability

Documentation and source code flexibility

Coverage for Tajikistan

User-friendly interface

32. The review concluded that most RCMs developed worldwide12 would not be optimal for Tajikistan. The majority of the RCMs are developed, maintained and configured for certain/specific regions without extensive documentation and international support. Thus, it is difficult to transfer these models from their specific regions to other regions. Only two RCMs, PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies model - UK Met Office13) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model14 (WRF), have good user interface and international training support. WRF may be preferable to the Government, because it has dual functions of both climate downscaling and weather forecasting, unlike PRECIS. This could be important for the future weather forecasting needs of Hydromet. WRF was developed by a consortium of United States research organizations and institutions.15The model is available for free, and there is a large network of institutions that are using it. The US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Beijing Normal University (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology), and the Institute of

12

For examples of some, see for example the European ENSEMBLES project for RCMs http://www.ensembles-eu.org/ 13

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis/ 14

http://www.wrf-model.org/index.php 15

US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), the Naval Research Laboratory, the University of Oklahoma, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

http://www.ensembles-eu.org/

http://www.ensembles-eu.org/

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis/

http://www.wrf-model.org/index.php


21

Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences have agreed to provide support for this project, if Hydromet decides to go with this option. 33. There are several reasons why this model would work well for Tajikistan:

Dual climate downscaling and weather forecasting ability. WRF is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs, which is a goal of the Climate Modeling Facility.

Portability, flexibility, and computational efficiency. The system can easily be extended to new uses. Compared to other models, WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales ranging from meters to thousands of kilometers, and depending on the availability of historical data, could be used for downscaling to a resolution as low as 1, 3, or 5 km.

Deployment worldwide. It is being used by many of the most advanced government meteorological services. It is the primary model for the US National Weather Service for 1- to 3-day forecasts. WRF shapes the weather forecasts that serve one-third of the world's population, and is being used by countries such as the People’s Republic of China; India; and the Republic of Korea.

Works well in data poor environments. WRF allows researchers the ability to conduct simulations reflecting either real or hypothetical data, important in a country such as Tajikistan, where data are often not available and where assumptions or representatives may need to be used.

Easy to use. WRF is one of the easiest Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to use and is widely adopted by the research community around the world. It is also free.

Sustainability. WRF is very well documented through user manuals and online trainings. Consequently, the Climate Modeling Facility will be easier to set up and will have a greater likelihood of sustainability, particularly in case of staff turnover at Hydromet.

Availability of trainings. Workshops and tutorials are held each year at NCAR, which Hydromet staff could attend as part of this project.

Operational effectiveness. In addition to its supreme modeling capacity and user accessibility, the large WRF user community around the world and regular trainings mean that Hydromet is more likely to obtain timely support from the research community for solving technical and scientific questions. This makes WRF one of the fastest RCMs to implement for downscaling, which is an important advantage, as it can take years to set up and calibrate a model for dynamical downscaling.

34. The team presented WRF to stakeholders during the climate modeling workshop in July. However recognizing the limited climate modeling expertise in Tajikistan, the team plans to convene an Ad Hoc Climate Modeling Advisory Group to discuss the selection of WRF, other dynamical downscaling options, and the climate modeling training. If the group can validate WRF as a viable option for Tajikistan, then the team will formally present the model to Hydromet for approval.

1.1.2 Train Personnel of Climate Modeling Facility (Years 1–4)

35.The team will work closely with Hydromet to identify suitable Hydromet staff for overseas and in-country climate modeling training.

36.The basic qualifications for the trainees are:

being employed by Hydromet;

master’s or higher degree in a quantitative climate change-related area, such as hydrometeorology, physics, computer science;


22

familiarity with computer languages, especially FORTRAN and C;

knowledge of the Linux operating system, and other computer knowledge is preferable; and

good English skills, to understand model documentation and training materials.

37. Based on the assessment of the local Climate Modeling Specialist, Nasridin Minikulov, there are four persons at least who meet these criteria in Hydromet. It is important that the climate modeling training complements and does not duplicate existing training efforts. Minikulov has reviewed the past and planned training for the World Bank Hydrological Service Delivery project, and the training topics do not cover climate modeling; rather, they cover such topics as warning systems for natural disasters, meteorology, weather forecasting, and hydrology.

38.As noted above, the team will first conduct consultation with the Ad Hoc Climate Modeling Advisory Group in the Second Quarter of Year 1 to review, elaborate and finalize the training plan, subject to the resources budget of the project. Assuming that WRF is the selected model, the provisional training plan will include the following:

Overseas WRF training (Years 1 and 2). NCAR holds regular trainings two times per year in Colorado (January, July). The plan is for two to three Tajik climate specialists to attend trainings in January and July 2014. Each training session is a 2-week period and includes several tutorials, such as the basics of WRF, atmospheric chemistry, data assimilation, and regional climate modeling.

In-country WRF training (Years 1–2). This will include 4 trips by the international climate modeling specialists to Tajikistan (Yi and Urich) on WRF training, starting in the Third Quarter of Year 1.

Additional overseas dynamical downscaling trainings (Years 3–4). This would include additional climate downscaling training for two to three Tajik climate specialists at leading climate modeling institutes in the People’s Republic of China, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For example, scientists at the Beijing Normal University and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences have offered to assist with training for the project.

1.1.3 Develop Climate Change Dynamical Downscaling (Year 2–3)

39. Depending on the final decision, if WRF is the proposed model for dynamical climate downscaling in Tajikistan, the international climate modeling specialist will work with the Hydromet staff identified above for the training to generate the dynamical downscaling projections in Years 2 and 3. This will go concurrently with the on-site dynamical downscaling training (1.1.2) It is anticipated this will require approximately four trips over the 2-year period by the CLIMsystems climate modeling specialists to work with the local climate modeling specialists. The model set-up and calibration will begin in Quarter 3 of Year 1, with the first simulation beginning in the First Quarter of Year 2. The results will begin to be uploaded to the climate data management (1.1.5) system by the end of Year 2, but further simulation and model run diagnosis will be needed in Year 3.

1.1.4 Develop Impact Assessments for Priority Sectors (Years 1, 2)

40. Impact model development and application must engage the Tajikistan stakeholders and is dependent on data availability. Model practicality needs to be carefully reviewed before engaging in substantial development work. Climate impact assessment is planned in the water resources and agriculture and land management sectors by the end of Year 2. (The transport sector impact modeling is covered by the analysis that will be completed for the development of the screening tool for infrastructure – See 3.2.2). The CLIMsystems international climate modeling specialists will conduct the impact modeling. The project’s local experts (Water Resources Specialist, Energy and Transport Specialist, Agriculture and


23

Land Management Specialist) will help collect data for the impact modeling and will be given training on the specific models used.

41. Statistical downscaling is actually more useful for impact modeling (Table 3), because of it is computationally fast and can generate an ensemble of climate model runs. Given that the full dynamical downscaling results will not be available until the end of Year 3 (as one dynamic downscaling simulation can takes weeks or months), the team will make use of GCM outputs from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the statistical downscaling projections from the PPCR Phase I16 (although they do not cover the entire country). CLIMsystems already has bias-corrected spatial downscaling17 (BCSD) projections for Central Asia, and Abt’s colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research have global statistical downscaled projections that may be available to the project team. The impact modeling will be done for the 2030s and 2050s.

42. The process for conducting impact modeling is an interactive, community-based approach. It starts with story-boarding, problem formulation, data assessment, and conceptual model development with multiple stakeholders, before proceeding on to more rigorous model building, model testing, and analysis (Figure 5). Lastly, stakeholders are again involved in visualization and review of results. The international climate modeling specialist will lead two interactive impact modeling stakeholder workshops with representatives of Government line ministries, NGOs and academia. The first will be conducted in Quarter 3 of Year 1 and will be focused on model selection and problem identification. At the final stakeholder workshop in Quarter 4 of Year 2, the team will present the results of the impact modeling and will discuss how these results can inform the adaptation planning (Output 2). In between the workshops, the project sectoral specialists will engage in consultations with the stakeholders on the refinement of the problem questions and the presentation of initial results. This process will inform the social development impact assessment in Year 3, which has yet to be defined, but will likely be more qualitative in nature.

Table 3: Advantages and Disadvantages of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

Advantages Disadvantages

Dynamical - Adheres to meteorology - Uses 6-hrly output from GCMs - Does not assume stationarity in response between local and GCM fields (e.g., snow-albedo feedback, cloud changes) - Argued to better represent extremes than statistical methods

- Computationally expensive - Inability to use model ensembles - Does not account for GCM biases - Domain sensitivity issues (spatial scale of the model) - Inability to relate to observations directly

Statistical - Computationally cheap - Better for sectoral impact studies - Ability to create mass ensembles

- Assumes stationarity in coarse-local relationships

16

PPCR Tajikistan Phase I Final Report on Components A2 and A6 Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Project. Consultants’ report. Manila (TA 7599-TAJ) 17

In BCSD, differences in observed climatological mean values between the GCM simulations and the historical observations for a reference period are used to “correct” future GCM simulations. The GCM-simulated values are “mapped” by quantile onto historical observed data. See: Maurer, E. P., L. Brekke, T. Pruitt, and P. B. Duffy (2007), 'Fine-resolution climate projections enhance regional climate change impact studies', Eos Trans. AGU, 88(47), 504.


24

- Ability to downscale to point locations - Can easily compare results to observed climate

- Neglects local feedback processes, such as snow albedo, soil moisture, and cloud cover - More appropriate for station level studies, and mainly for precipitation and temperature downscaling

Figure 5: The Approach to Impact Modeling

43. Upon further consultation regarding the options, that will take place during the inception workshop as part of the dialogue and validation activities, the models selected for the impact analyses may include:

Agriculture: CropWat18 can be used to model crop water requirements and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)19 can be used to model crop yields. Potential crops to model include cereals (wheat, barley), cotton, potatoes, or fruit crops.

River basin management: ISIS20 (particularly for flood risk analysis) and Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP)21, which is an easy-to-use, flexible, widely used software tool for integrated water sector modeling. This work would complement the runoff modeling and flood risk assessment of the Pyanj River conducted in Phase 122, with updated climate change projections.

18

United Nations Food & Agricultural Organization. http://www.fao.org/nr/water/infores_databases_cropwat.html 19

http://dssat.net/ 20

http://www.halcrow.com/isis/ 21

http://www.weap21.org/ 22

ADB. 2010. Technical Assistance to Tajikistan for Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments.

Consultants’ report. Manila (TA 7599-TAJ).


25

1.1.5 Establish a Climate Data Management System (Years 1–4)

44. The goal of this activity is to help address one of the deficiencies for climate planning in Tajikistan identified in Phase 1, namely that “weather, climate and climate change data are not readily available to all agencies in a format that is easily used nor provided in a timely manner”.23 During the Inception phase, the team has considered the architecture for a climate data management system. The system should be:

Flexible and easy to use. The system needs to handle data inputs and modifications easily.

Robust enough to maintain and hold a comprehensive set of data – GCM, RCM data and other country-specific data, e.g. weather, disaster risks, river runoff and glacier data.

45. While the database could be web-based and include a webGIS for visualization and map making, this would certainly be more expensive. During Year 1, the team, led by the international climate modeling specialists and the local IT and Knowledge Management Specialist will consult with Hydromet, the team from the World Bank Hydrological Service Delivery project, and a larger group of local stakeholders on the detailed specifications and functionality and will propose candidate data management systems. It is important that climate information is available to a broad set of users. Given issues of sustainability, the system will likely be a simple scaled down web-based database without visualization functionality (i.e. ‘dropbox’) that will be implemented with the assistance of the local IT and Knowledge Management Specialist, as well as Hydromet staff.

1.1.6 Develop Climate Science Modules for Education Curricula (Years 1)

46. The development of climate change curricula has been identified as one of the most important issues for building climate change capacity in Tajikistan. However, climate change is currently not included in the curriculum for primary, secondary or tertiary education.24 During the Inception phase, the Education Specialist has conducted a review of donor programs that have climate change education trainings and an assessment of the universities in Tajikistan to understand which ones may be suitable for the development of courses on climate science and glaciology.

47. Educational trainings on climate change in schools in Tajikistan typically occur on a voluntary basis and are almost entirely donor-funded. During the First National Communication to the UNFCCC, there was some limited climate change training for educational organizations using support from the Global Environment Facility. During the Second National Communication, the project team organized some climate change educational trainings in schools in Dushanbe and a university in Khujand. A UNDP-funded project on environmental learning has opened resource centers at the State Polytechnic University and the Postgraduate Institute of Continuing Education for Civil Servants. The centers have developed two training modules that include climate change for secondary and post-secondary educational institutions. It is expected that the centers will develop additional training modules on climate change and organize a series of trainings and workshops for teachers and civil servants.25 The one exception to donor-funded activities is the ongoing

23

ADB. 2011. PPCR Tajikistan Phase 1 Final Report on Components A2 and A6 Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Project. Consultants’ report. Manila (TA 7599-TAJ). 24

UNDP. 2012. PPCR Tajikistan Phase I Component A1 Stocktaking Report and Gap Analysis. Capacity for Climate Resiliency in Tajikistan: Stocktaking and Institutional Assessment. Consultants’ report. Tajikistan 25

UNDP. 2012. PPCR Tajikistan Phase 1 Component A1 Stocktaking Report and Gap Analysis. Capacity for Climate Resiliency in Tajikistan: Stocktaking and Institutional Assessment. Consultants’ report. Tajikistan.


26

lecture series on human adaptation to climate change that has been offered to medical students since 2003 by the Faculty of Public Health of the State Medical University.

48. In terms of which universities may be suitable for the development of courses on climate science and glaciology, the most obvious candidates are ones with significant science programs. Currently, there are 10 universities that have faculties, centers, and/or majors in climate-related fields, including physics, geography, biology, ecology, and water resources (Box 4). These are the most likely possibilities for the development of courses on climate science and glaciology. The Agrarian University is teaching hydrology and agro-meteorology and the Technical University is teaching hydrology and ecology. Both the Agrarian University and the Tajik State Pedagogical University have ecology centers. Furthermore, the Tajik State Medical University has courses on human health and climate change.

49. The most promising candidate may be the Tajik National University, which has a program in meteorology. It offers a 5-year diploma in engineering-meteorology, which includes one semester on climate change. However, the staff is limited, with only three teachers in the department. No university currently offers a course on glaciology, although the Tajik State Pedagogical did previously.

50. During the July climate modeling workshop in Dushanbe, which was attended by a representative of the Tajik National University, the stakeholders discussed the development of climate change science in university curriculum. Key issues discussed included:

The content of such a curriculum

Language (Russian/Tajik)

Semester-long vs. short modules

Type of students – graduate vs. undergraduate

What universities and how many would be optimal

On-line vs. printed material

51. Due to available resources, the team proposes to focus initially on developing content for a 2-week short course that would include such topics as climate science, introduction to climate modeling, impacts of climate change, climate risk management, adaptation theory and methodologies across sectors, tools for climate planning, climate change communication, and glaciology. More detailed modules can be developed after Year 1 for sectoral impacts and adaptation; for example, agriculture, health, and urban water. The Education Specialist will validate this proposal with the Ministry of Education during the

Box 4: Possible Universities for the Development of Climate Science Curriculum

Tajik National University

Tajik State Pedagogical University

Tajik Agrarian University

Tajik State Medical University

Tajik Technical University

Khujand State University

Kulyb State University

Kurgan-Tyube State University

Tajik Technological University

Tajik Mining and Smelting Institute


27

Second Quarter and will continue consultations with universities to recommend a university that will incorporate the climate science modules by the Third Quarter of Year 1. The Education Specialist and the international climate modeling specialists will consult with State Polytechnic University and the Postgraduate Institute of Continuing Education for Civil Servants on the content their climate modules and develop the material (translated into Russian) by the end the Third Quarter of Year 1. By the end of Year 1, the Education Specialist will seek final approval from the Ministry of Education for the incorporation of the climate science modules into the curriculum. 52. The most important lesson to be learned from education initiatives in Tajikistan is that in order for them to succeed the Government and the education institutions must have strong buy-in; hence it will be critical to work closely with the Ministry of Education. Although this activity is focused on the university level, the project will also work to incorporate climate change into the school curricula at lower grade levels (. Previous work in Nepal suggests that climate change curriculum development should be accompanied by larger advocacy26, which is the focus of Output 3 (3.3). Moreover, capacity-building of teachers at all levels is critical; in the beginning of Year 2, the Education Specialist will draft a report on recommendations for teacher training – from secondary school to universities.

Table 4: Work Plan for Output 1

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Activity and Key Milestone 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Establish a climate modeling facil-ity (year 1)

Consult with Ad Hoc Climate Model-ing Advisory Group and make rec-ommendations and selection of cli-mate model and equipment

Refurbish Hydromet space

Procure Climate Modeling Facility equipment

Install climate model

Train personnel of the climate modeling facility (year 1)

Consult with Ad Hoc Climate Model-ing Advisory Group on climate mod-eling training and finalize training plan

Select staff for training in collabora-tion with Hydromet

Conduct overseas WRF training

Conduct on-site WRF training

Conduct additional overseas dynam-ical downscaling (to be determined)

Develop climate change dynam-ical downscaling (year 2)

26

Asian Development Bank. 2012. Nepal: Strengthening Capacity for Managing Climate Change and the Environment - Recommendations for Academic Curricula on Climate Change and Environmental Management. Consultants’ Report. Kathmandu, Nepal.


28

Configure and set-up model

Conduct model simulations

Do model diagnosis of results

Upload data to data management system

Develop impact assessments for priority sectors (years 2–3)

Select water resources and agricul-ture models and hold stakeholder workshop

Gather baseline data and process GCM and other climate data

Conduct water resources and agri-culture impact modeling

Draft final impact assessment report and hold stakeholder workshop

Conduct social development analy-sis (unspecified)

Establish a climate data manage-ment system (year 1)

Make recommendations on candi-date climate data management sys-tem

Develop data management system

Develop climate science modules for university curricula (year 1)

Consult with Ministry of Education and universities and recommend target university for climate science modules

Develop content for climate science modules and translate into Russian

Obtain approval from Ministry of Education for the incorporation of climate science modules into curric-ulum

Draft recommendations report on teacher training in climate change

3.2 Output 2: Climate Change Risks Are Integrated into Tajikistan’s Development Projects

Performance Targets

50 officials trained on climate risk management, of which 30% are women

National strategy on climate change adaptation adopted by Year 3

Local adaptation plan developed in 5 districts by Year 3

Guidance manual produced to show Government and NGOs how to consult with women and marginalized groups by Year 3

Progress to Date

53. The Team Leader conducted initial consultations with Government and NGO stakehold-ers (see Annex 2) on the activities of Output 2 during the initial mission May 2013 where the guidance manual, the local and national climate change strategies, and the Small Grants


29

Facility were discussed. The Team Leader has had subsequent conversations on these with topics with NGOs27 and the UNDP. As the Economist for the project is not yet in place, the review of the national budgets has not yet begun, but the team expects the Economist to be on-board by November 2013. The international Infrastructure Specialist has conducted desk analysis of the state of infrastructure in Tajikistan and the impact of climate on the various in-frastructure assets and has elaborated the concept of the screening tool for the infrastructure sector. The complete Work Plan for Output 2 is found in Table 6.

3.2.1 Review National/Sector Programs and National Budgets (Year 1)

54. Currently, climate change adaptation is mostly not reflected in national and sector level policies. Moreover, there is a lack of policy-based budgeting, and the overall picture of climate-related spending is unclear.28 The project team will review existing national sector plans and budgets in order to fully understand current spending on climate change adaptation and identify gaps in climate change risk assessments and adaptation planning. As recommended in the PPCR Phase 1, the team plans to conduct a Public Expenditure Review (PER) on climate resiliency, using established methodologies as a guide29 and drawing from experiences in other countries, such as Nepal and Bangladesh. This review will be led by the international Economist and the Infrastructure Specialist, with support from the national sector experts. They will submit a draft climate resiliency PER report to COEP, other line ministries, and NGOs by the end of the Third Quarter of Year 1 for comments and finalize it following inputs by these relevant stakeholders by the end of Year 1. 3.2.2. Develop Climate Risk Screening Tools and Risk Management System for

Priority Sectors (Years 1–4)

55. Climate risk screening is an integral part of efforts to ascertain current and future vulnerabilities and risks related to climate change. It is a prerequisite for identifying and designing adaptation measures, and an important element in the process of integrating or mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development project planning and policy processes.

56. An ideal screening tool should provide both reactive and proactive screening, in that it can be used to climate-proof and reduce the climate risks of both existing and planning projects; act as a decision-support tool in prioritizing adaptation options; and help increase the awareness of climate risks by providing a platform for knowledge sharing.

57. However, to date, there is a paucity of useful screening tools for development. The World Bank developed the ADAPT screening tool30 (co-developed by the Team), but it proved to be overly prescriptive and cumbersome to modify. It focused on flagging project activities at a very granular level (e.g., specific irrigation technology), and developers had to predefine all possible activities and propagate a corresponding knowledgebase. This made it difficult to expand as well as inflexible. Moreover, only one climate model was employed, and so climate uncertainty was not captured. There are a number of other computer-based tools that assist in the process of the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk screening,

27

Most notably, Giuseppe Bonati of Cooperazione e Sviluppo (CESVI) 28

UNDP. 2012. PPCR Tajikistan Phase 1 Component A1 Stocktaking Report and Gap Analysis. Capacity for Climate Resiliency in Tajikistan: Stocktaking and Institutional Assessment. Consultants’ report. Tajikistan. 29

Bird, N. et. al. (2011). Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review: A Methodology to Review Climate Policy, Institutions, and Expenditure. CFF Guidance Note: Draft for Comment. ODI / Asia-Pacific Capacity Devel-opment for Development Effectiveness Facility, November 2011. 30

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm


30

such as the UK Climate Impacts Programme’s Adaptation Wizard31. Furthermore, there are a number of donor-developed frameworks to screen projects/programs for climate risks and/or identify policy priorities. Typically, these processes require expert advice and tend to rely more on qualitative inputs while incorporating climate science information. These frameworks require more application time when compared to computer-based decision tools. Such examples include USAID's Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Manual and the Institute for Development Studies’ ORCHID (Opportunities and Risks from Climate Change and Disasters) methodology.32 On the other end of the spectrum are web-based climate change platforms that provide spatially-explicit historical climate and climate change projections, such as the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal33 or the Nature Conservancy’s Climate Wizard34. While these are useful, they do not provide a structured process for the screening of projects.

58. Because screening tool development is still in its incipient stage and given the wealth of expertise of Chinowsky in tool development for climate-proofing infrastructure, this will be the first sector that is incorporated into the screening tool. Because there is a lot of uncertainty about the appropriate level of complexity and how to best incorporate tools into the climate change planning process, the team recommends first developing an infrastructure screening tool in Year 1, which will inform further screening tool development in other sectors in subsequent years. The approach is to develop an infrastructure tool that guides the users—government and civil society stakeholders—through a structured “checklist” process to consider climate risk and thresholds and evaluate adaptation options in projects. The team will modify the Infrastructure Planning Support System35 (IPSS) as developed by Chinowsky and the Institute of Climate and Civil Systems at the University of Colorado at Boulder. Used in several studies since 2010, IPSS is a recognized tool for analyzing and understanding quantified climate change impacts on infrastructure elements. The underlying concepts used in IPSS include engineering-based standards that are the focus of the accompanying engineering manual.

59. The IPSS tool will be customized to look at climate-proofing these infrastructure elements in Tajikistan: roads, buildings, and water services. IPSS is the first system designed to focus on assisting planning efforts by quantitatively modeling infrastructure costs through engineering analysis within the context of a holistic development perspective. It includes impacts from climate change, as well as the environmental and social implications of expanding (or losing) road infrastructure due to investment policy. Six areas of analysis provide policy makers with a broader set of decision criteria (Table 5). Each area of analysis is based upon a rigorous research methodology that incorporates a range of climate science projections, engineering and materials studies, and social and environmental research that, when combined, highlight the external benefits (or lack of benefits) that road and building infrastructure confer upon a region or country.

31

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wizard/ 32

World Bank http://go.worldbank.org/DFS8T30YJ0 33

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm. The Team Leader was also the architect of this platform. 34

http://www.climatewizard.org/ 35

http://clicslab.org/ipss.html


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Table 5: Areas of Analysis of the IPSS Tool

60. The steps required to achieve this analysis for each infrastructure type focus on the collection of both user-based and climate-based data as follows:

Project identification. The user would input geographic location.

Assessment of Climate Risk. Based on the project location, the tool will provide climate impact projections including damage estimates and cost estimates as illustrated in Figure 7. The tool has GCM projections and can be augmented with the statistical downscaling projections from the PPCR Phase and CLIMsystems’ bias-corrected spatial downscaling projections for Central Asia.

Evaluation of adaptation options/cost of adaptation. For each climate sensitive sub-sector, the tool will analyze both adaptation and no adaptation options specific to Tajikistan. Wherever possible, information on the costs and benefits of adaptation options will be included. The user would then have the ability to assess the appropriateness of the adaptation options based on other criteria, such as social or environmental benefit, feasibility, and other metrics.

Project summary. The tool would then generate summary reports for the project which record the results of the steps outlined above that could then be archived for monitoring, reporting and verification purposes.

61. For the projected impacts of climate change, IPSS employs a stressor-response methodology to determine reduction of the original design-life through climate-induced degradation for a particular location (Figure 6). Lastly, the impact is quantified as a fiscal cost, which varies based upon the adaptation policy employed (Figure 7). The system compares a “no adaptation” strategy (which calculates the cost required to retain the original design life of the road or building through increased maintenance and repair costs) with an “adaptation” strategy (which calculates the cost to modify the design before construction of the road or building so that it will be resilient to the projected climate impacts during its lifespan) for each climate scenario and presents findings to the user from a probability perspective. The incurred costs vary based on a country’s characteristics: specific geographic location, current construction costs, maintenance routines, type of road/building, and quantity of existing infrastructure. The IPSS model is designed to incorporate specific

Areas of Analysis Key Variables

Climate Precipitation, temperature

Flooding Runoff, intensity, infrastructure density

Environment Carbon emissions, passenger and freight traffic

Transport Distance, road type, freight and passenger traffic

Financial Interest rate, duration of loans or bonds, finance options for investments

Social Poverty rate, population density, construction options, employment opportunities


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user inputs for this data, but if that is unavailable, it is also designed to use default values based on a combination of global infrastructure data. Several studies have shown that large quantities of unpaved roads are particularly vulnerable to climate change—an important consideration for developing countries that often face extremely high climate costs due to a large inventory of unpaved road infrastructure. Through this customized climate impact analysis, IPSS provides a detailed and quantifiable understanding of impacts and adaptation strategies that are integral to infrastructure policy making and planning. 62. In the Second and Third Quarters of Year 1, the team will develop a Local Experts Group to guide the development of the infrastructure tool for the development context of Tajikistan, made up of representatives of Government (e.g. Ministry of Transport), NGOs and academia and facilitated by the local project consultants. In the Third Quarter of Year 1, the team will conduct a review meeting with the Group to present the initial version of the tool, after which the design will modified and the prototype presented after Year 1 along with supporting guidance documents in Russian and a plan to transition the tool to the Government. This process will inform the development of screening tools after Year 1. In particular, the team will evaluate the process for development and the appropriate level of tool complexity for the circumstances in Tajikistan. The development of the screening tool for infrastructure will essentially include the impact analysis for transport (1.1.4).

Figure 6: IPSS User Input Screen


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Figure 7: Summary Screen Showing the Costs of Adaptation for Roads

Engineering Manual

63. The accompanying engineering manual for the screening tool will reflect the current practice and research focusing on future needs of engineered artifacts in response to projected climate change events. These will include both potential long-term events, such as rises in precipitation and temperature, as well as increases in extreme events. The experience of the Infrastructure Specialist as well as published standards will provide a basis for incorporating adaptation elements into existing engineering manuals in Tajikistan. The additional material will include dose-response relationships for roads, bridges, buildings, water supply systems, and urban drainage systems. Dose-response relationships quantify the increase in unit costs due to a change in a particular climate variable that is required to hold constant the level of service provided by a specific type of infrastructure. For example, a dose-response relationship for paved roads states that the standardized cost of constructing road pavements will increase by 3% for each 6 °C increase in pavement temperature, which is an indicator based on average and maximum temperatures plus latitude relationships. The additional material will also provide lessons learned and technical guidance based on other projects/studies that have addressed climate change impacts on infrastructure and adaptation (Box 4). 64. To date, the Infrastructure Specialist has done initial assessments of infrastructure and the impact of climate on infrastructure in Tajikistan, which will be further validated by more extensive research during the Second and Third Quarters of Year 1 with the local Energy and Transport Specialist. During the Third and Fourth Quarters of Year 1, the international Infrastructure Specialist will work with the local Energy and Transport Specialist to conduct an extensive review of existing engineering manuals in Tajikistan, consulting the Government (e.g. Ministry of Transport) and academia to best understand how climate-proofing material can best be incorporated into the existing manuals. In the Fourth Quarter of Year 1, the team will deliver a draft climate-proofing manual in Russian, followed by a consultation with the Local Experts Group. In Year 2, the team will revise the manual and provide training on its contents to engineers in Government and academia.


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Box 4: Outline of Climate Change Material for Engineering Manual

1) Roads – Roads are susceptible to both changes in temperature and precipitation. i. Paved Roads

a. Pavement Types b. Base Levels c. Sub-bases d. Drainage e. Culverts

ii. Gravel Roads a) Aggregate Types b) Base Design c) Drainage

iii. Unpaved Roads d) Drainage e) Regrading periods

2) Bridges – Bridges are susceptible to increases in water flow forces on existing piers. The increased flows will result in increased scouring actions on piers re-quiring bridges to either have greater reinforcement or diversion strategies.

i. Scour Protection ii. Pier Protection

a. Rip Rap b. Concrete Routing

iii. Pier Reinforcement 3) Buildings – Buildings incorporate challenges for climate change adaptation in

that potential lifespans are significant and the scope of climate change impacts must be considered from an extended period of time. Adaptation engineering for buildings can occur in both energy usage as well as design requirements. In terms of energy, issues such as the types of windows chosen and the type of roof installed can influence overall energy usage. Similarly, adaptation for increased precipitation levels can require changes in drainage systems for roofing and foun-dations.

i. Exterior Protection a. Drainage Requirements b. Roof Drains c. Basement Drains

ii. Energy Enhancements d. Windows e. Roofing f. Blinds g. Insulation

4) Water Supply Systems – In the context of Tajikistan, water supply is critical as drought has limited supply in the past and projected climate change will once again limit supplies. In an area where the majority of water comes from glacial runoff, the impact of climate on water delivery can be critical in terms of both ur-ban and rural survival. The engineering manual will focus on impacts of climate change on distribution strategies and the traditional modes of water delivery.

i. Delivery Transport Systems a. Flooding vulnerability b. Drought contingencies c. Temperature vulnerability d. Alternative approaches

5) Urban Drainage – Flooding as a result of poor urban drainage can result in multiple issues including health issues, water quality impacts, and commercial impacts. The analysis of future precipitation impacts will influence the adaptation needs for the Tajik planners. Of particular concern will be the needs to adjust culverts, drainage collection, and outflow to determine potential sizing impacts or adaptation delivery.


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3.2.3 Produce Guidance Manual on How to Consult Effectively with Poor and Marginalized Groups (Including Women) (Years 1, 2)

65. The project’s Public Participation and Social Development Specialist will develop a guidance manual for government and other NGOs on how to consult with women and marginalized groups and communicate climate change risks. Several NGOs (e.g., Youth Ecological Society, Little Earth) are actively engaged in raising awareness on climate change (Output 3) and may be good candidates for developing the guidance manual.

66. The manual will discuss the specific climate risks that will impact these groups and focus on adaptation actions. Previous work suggests that relating extreme weather events and health to climate change are good entry points for engaging vulnerable groups in discussions about climate change, and it is important to emphasize the role that these groups themselves can play in adaptation. An important step in making sure that the manual is comprehensive and inclusive will be to develop a typology of climate change vulnerability.

67. Examples of vulnerable groups that will be addressed include households headed by women, smallholder farmers with no off-farm income, households with no access to improved water, or households and farms located in areas particularly prone to climate-related disasters such as flooding, hail, and mudslides. Other important considerations include: geographic location (e.g., agro-climatic zones), the predominant climate risk, livelihood strategy, and ethnic background. Distinguishing between these groups is important because the messaging to each will vary depending on the type of vulnerability. The guidance manual may also include the climate change games discussed under Output 3. 68. The Public Participation and Social Development Specialist will hold consultative meetings with Government stakeholders, both representatives of line ministries (e.g. COEP, Committee on Women and Family Affairs, Committee on Emergency Situation Situations and Civil Defense) and representatives in local districts, and NGOs. By the First Quarter of Year 2, the Public Participation and Social Development Specialists will submit a draft report that will be reviewed during a stakeholder meeting in the Second Quarter of Year 2. Finally, the Guidance Manual will be finalized by the end of Year 2 (in both Russian and Tajik) and will be delivered to all stakeholders consulted during the process.

3.2.4 Provide Climate Risk Management Training (Years 1, 2)

69. Currently there is a disconnect between the impacts of climate change and climate change planning in the line ministries in Tajikistan. A recent survey indicates that only 1 in 8 agencies has planned for climate change, but 7 out of 10 are affected by the impacts of climate change. Moreover, 82% of respondents said their organization did not have measures in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change.36 Clearly, effective climate change capacity building requires multiple modalities of training and must engage a broader community besides Hydromet.

70.In compliance with ADB’s guidelines, the team plans to contract an NGO/institution, to provide two 1-week long training courses on climate risk management in Year 1 and Year 2 for at least 25 national and local Government and NGO stakeholders at each session. The Team Leader will work with the contracted organization on the development of the curriculum, but below is an indicative set of topics:

Day 1. Climate Science and Basic Concepts of Climate Risk Management

36

ADB. 2011. Technical Assistance to Tajikistan for Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Project. Consultants’ report. Manila (TA 7599-TAJ)


36

o Basics of climate science o Introduction to the terminology and concepts of climate risk management

Day 2. Climate Models and Decision Support Tools o Overview of General Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models o Introduction to various climate change decision-support tools, portals and

knowledge platforms

Day 3. Climate Change at the Sector Level o Overview of climate change impacts and adaptation at the sector level,

including water resources, agriculture and land management, urban, health o Focus on Tajikistan-specific issues

Day 4. Climate Change Risk Management Planning o Climate risk management planning at the national, regional and local levels

and integration across sectors o Climate risk management and urban and rural development o Climate risk management, vulnerable populations and social protection o Climate resilience indicators and monitoring and evaluation o Climate risk communication

Day 5. Hand-on Exercises on Climate Risk Planning

The course material will be translated into Russian in advance.

71. In addition to the in-country trainings on climate risk management, the Team Leader and the national consultants will facilitate the use of free e-learning modules in Years 1 and 2 for a larger set of Government and NGO stakeholders that have been developed by a number of institutions. For example, Abt Associates worked with the World Bank Institute to pilot free e-learning modules on the Economics of Climate-Resilient Development. Many of the modules are basic and would be appropriate with officials with little or no knowledge of climate change adaptation (although they require English skills). The local consultants would be used as mentors to help participants complete the modules.

3.2.5 Support National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, with Allocated National Budget (Years 2, 3)

72. One of the major recommendations of the institutional and stocktaking assessment of PPCR Phase 1 was that Tajikistan should endorse a National Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation.37 The process for the development of the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy will be guided by the experiences of other countries with similar development contexts that have recently delivered National Adaptation Programmes of Action, such as Nepal.38 The main lesson from these countries is that it is of salient importance to involve a wide set of stakeholders from Government and the civil society – to form a critical mass of stakeholders. As noted during the Team Leader’s mission, it is also essential to make sure that the national adaptation plan is consonant with other national strategies, such as forestry.39

73. The team proposes to work with the COEP to establish a National Adaptation Core Strategy Team by the end of Year 1, jointly led by a representative of COEP, the project Team Leader and international Economist, and comprised of representatives of the main line ministries and NGOs. In addition, larger National Adaptation Thematic Working Groups will

37

UNDP. 2012. PPCR Tajikistan Phase 1 Component A1 Stocktaking Report and Gap Analysis. Capacity for Climate Resiliency in Tajikistan: Stocktaking and Institutional Assessment. Consultants’ report. Tajikistan. 38

Ministry of Environment, Nepal. 2010.National Adaptation Program of Action to Climate Change. Submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Kathmandu, Nepal. 39

Benjamin Neusel, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), pers comm.


37

be established in Year 1 in the critical sectors, such as water resources, energy, infrastructure/transport, agriculture and land management, each coordinated by the respective local project consultant, with representatives from Government, NGOs, academia and donor agencies. The climate change risk management training in Year 1 will help develop the capacity of the members of the Thematic Working Groups.

74. The Thematic Working Groups will meet monthly during Year 2, will report back to the National Adaptation Core Strategy Team, and will be responsible for drafting their section of the final report. The project team plans to contract a local NGO to help manage the process by the end of Year 1. The strategy process will also include two larger multi-stakeholder workshops. Prior to the first workshop in Quarter 1 of Year 2, the International Economist will conduct some analyses of the costs of adaptation that can be presented. Of course, there are other considerations for adaptation options besides economics. The feasibility and the likelihood of implementation and co-benefits, like rural livelihoods, poverty, employment and other environmental quality metrics, need to be considered. Therefore, the first workshop will deploy various multi-criteria decision analysis techniques (e.g., simple weighting, outranking, analytical hierarchical process) as well as voting techniques to allow the participants to prioritize actions across a suite of criteria. The results will form the basis of the initial prioritization of adaptation options that the Thematic Groups will focus on when drafting the strategy in Year 2. A draft national adaptation strategy will be presented at a multi-stakeholder workshop in the Quarter 4 of Year 2 and finalized after participants’ input. The team will then work with COEP to have the strategy approved and adopted by the Government in Year 3. Figure 7 lays out the strategy process.

Figure 8: The Steps in National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Process

3.2.6 Support Local Adaptation Plans in Five Vulnerable Districts (Year 3)

75. The development of the local adaptation plans will be informed by the experience of other countries, for example Nepal, which has embarked on developing a framework for a Local Adaptation Plan of Action. The team proposes to develop the national and local adaptation plans in concert. Integrating national and local adaptation planning can be effective if: (1) social exclusion is addressed, (2) the process is used to refocus on


38

development efforts that address poor and marginalized people; (3) there is good communication between the national and local levels; and (4) there is continued capacity building support. Key benefits of integrating the two are improved complementarity between planned and autonomous adaptation, better targeting of resources to the most vulnerable, and bridging the gaps between vulnerability assessments and planning and implementation. 40 There are seven key steps in identifying and preparing the local plan: climate change awareness; climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment; prioritization of options; developing the plan; integrating it into the larger district process; implementing the plan; and assessing progress. 76. The National Adaptation Core Strategy Team for the national adaptation strategy will also select the five vulnerable districts for local adaptation that will be supported by funding from the Small Grants Facility (3.2.7). By Quarter 2 of Year 2, the Core Strategy Team will have identified a set of criteria and a weighting procedure for selection, such as:

Overall vulnerability to current climate variability and projected climate change, including risk of climate extremes

Geographic representativeness (e.g., river basins, climatic zones, topography)

Livelihoods

Institutional capacity and readiness

Districts with unique ethnicities and diverse populations that have perhaps made them more vulnerable to climate change

77. During the May mission to Tajikistan, NGO representatives emphasized that districts in multiple climatic areas should be selected. The Team Leader has had subsequent commu-nications with NGOs41 which emphasized selecting districts based on several factors, includ-ing location and vulnerability (e.g. remoteness, elevation, position in watershed, climate change vulnerability, dependence on agriculture/livestock, existing land degradation), the experience and receptivity of the local population and the capacity of the local authorities. There are a number of lessons that can be drawn from past work on adaptation at the dis-trict-level. Firstly, it is much easier to work in districts that are remote and more independ-ent. Secondly, it is more efficient to build a project in a district where NGOs are already working on environment projects, development plans exist, or where village organizations and watershed committees are in place. Strong support from local councils, or Khukumats, is crucial for the success of any project. Lastly, the local plans need to be elaborated by dis-trict officials; external consultants and NGOs must only facilitate the process.42 78. By the end of Year 2, the local districts will be selected. During Year 3, NGOs will be contracted to work with the district officials in drafting the local plans, with guidance from the National Adaptation Core Strategy Team and working closely with the members of the local communities. The plans will be finalized by the end of Year 3.

3.2.7 Develop Modalities for a Small Grants Facility (Year 2)

79. The team will create a Small Grants Facility by the end of Year 2, modeled after the structure of the Global Environment Facility’s (GEF’s) Small Grants Programme43. The team plans to contract a National Coordinator by the end of Year 1 to administer the program, with the support of the project Office Manager. The team will also create a National Steering

40

Institute for Development Studies. 2012. Linking National and Local Adaptation Planning: Lessons from Nepal http://www.ids.ac.uk/files/dmfile/LHcasestudy03-NepalLAPA.pdf 41

Pers. comm. 42

Mr Bonati recommends these districts for consideration: Temurmalik, Baljuvon, Khovaling, Muminobod, Shurobod (Caritas) 43

www.sgp.undp.org


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Committee by Quarter 2 of Year 2, which will be composed of Government and NGO representatives and will be involved in selection. During the beginning of Year 2, the National Coordinator will visit local communities, particularly those benefitting from the GEF’s grants in Tajikistan to gather lessons learned and to help develop the criteria for grant selection. During Quarter 4 of Year 2, the team will conduct a multi-stakeholder workshop to present the criteria and elicit feedback on the final design. The Small Grants Facility will be operational in Year 3 and will disburse grants in Years 3 and 4. 80. The team has consulted with the UNDP in Tajikistan44 on the GEF program and will continue to coordinate with them on the design and implementation of the program and to minimize overlap. The design of the project Small Grants Facility will be modeled on this program. The GEF Small Grants Programme in Tajikistan operates across sectors, including biodiversity, chemicals, climate change mitigation, community-based adaptation, international water and land degradation. Most projects are funded for one year, while some extend to two years. The adaptation-related projects have included sustainable land management, rainwater harvesting, and silviculture. It is too early to tell what types of adaptation projects are the most successful. The Programme does not fund pilots, but is geared to scaling up and replicating practical interventions (beyond training and awareness-raising). 81. A number of lessons can be gleaned from the Programme since it began in 2009. Firstly, the small grants model (< $50,000) is an effective and efficient delivery mechanism for finance to develop the civil society. In Tajikistan, there is no shortage of demand, and the program receives over 200 proposals per year. Secondly, a competitive grant-making process does work in Tajikistan. Thus, most of the funding for the Small Grants Facility will be reserved for the community organizations to make proposals and compete for funding; this will ensure community ownership in the projects. While the GEF program has been effective, the UNDP has communicated to the team that it is critical to do significant awareness-raising about the grants. Field consultation is essential, as the quality of NGOs varies widely. Many NGOs are still not informed about the program, and it can be difficult finding NGOs in very remote, rural areas. Thus the National Coordinator will continue to spend time during Years 3 and Year 4 visiting local communities and communicating to them the purpose of the Facility. Lastly, the co-financing requirement of the GEF program is a challenge, so the project team will need to consider whether this should be an element of the Small Grants Facility. 3.2.8 Provide Technical Support to Government (Years 1–4)

82. To date, the national sector specialists on the project, namely the Energy and Transport Specialist and Water Resources Specialist, have been providing technical assistance to the other PPCR projects and the Government. For example, The Water Resources Specialist has assisted Hydromet with reviewing the rules and procedures of the CIF and the PPCR Secretariat on the Pyanj. The Energy and Transport Specialist has worked with Barqi Tojik in its preparation and submission of its proposal to the CIF. All the local consultants provided technical assistance during the UN transboundary water conference in August. The sector specialists will continue to provide this type of support throughout the entire project. The entire team will use its broad network to assist the Government as needed with proposals for additional donor funding

44

Mr. Khurshed Kholov, pers. comm.


40



Key Activity 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Review nation-al/sector programs and national budg-ets (Year 1)

Produce draft climate resiliency PER report

Produce final climate resiliency PER report

Develop climate risk screening tools and risk manage-ment system for priority sectors (Years 1–4)

Identify Local Experts Group to advise on infrastructure tool de-velopment

Refine design of in-frastructure tool and convene Local Ex-perts Meeting

Modify infrastructure tool and develop supporting guidance materials

Convene stakeholder meeting to review tool

Develop plan to tran-sition tool to Gov-ernment

Refine infrastructure tool with downscaling data and validate

Develop screening tools for other sectors based on consulta-tions

Develop climate change material for engineering manual

Conduct extensive review of existing en-gineering manuals with local project consultants

Develop draft climate change material for engineering manual and translate into Russian


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Consult with Local Experts Group

Revise manual

Complete final man-ual and conduct train-ing

Produce guidance manual on how to consult effectively with poor and mar-ginalized groups (including women)

Consult with stake-holders

Deliver draft guid-ance manual

Convene multi-stakeholder work-shop

Finalize guidance manual and deliver to stakeholders

Provide climate risk management train-ing

Contract international NGO to provide cli-mate risk manage-ment training

Conduct first climate risk management training

Conduct second cli-mate risk manage-ment training

Guide Government and NGO stakehold-ers through various climate change e-learning modules

Support a national climate change ad-aptation strategy

Create Strategy Team and Thematic Working Groups

Contract NGO to help manage the strategy process

Multi-stakeholder In-ception Workshop


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Thematic Working Group meetings and Regional Consulta-tion

Produce draft and fi-nal National Adapta-tion Strategy and hold multi-stakeholder work-shop

Present strategy to Government and fa-cilitate adoption by Government Decree

Support local adap-tation plans in five vulnerable districts

Establish criteria for district selection

Select vulnerable dis-tricts

Develop local adap-tation plans with sup-port from the Small Grants Facility with participatory commu-nity meeting

Final adaptation plans accepted

Develop modalities for a Small Grants Facility

Select National Co-ordinator

Create National Steering Committee

Conduct consultations with local communi-ties on grant criteria

Hold multi-stakeholder work-shop on Facility de-sign

Finalize grants crite-ria and disbursement

Disburse grants

Provide technical support to govern-ment (as needed)

3.3 Output 3: Knowledge Management Systems Are Developed and Applied

Performance Targets

Climate change portal operational by Year 1

30% of the population, of which at least 50% are women, informed on climate change by Year 3


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Climate change information services available to five vulnerable districts by Year 2

Progress to Date

83. During August 2013, the international Knowledge Management Specialist visited Tajikistan and met with key Government and NGO stakeholders (Annex 2) in order to revisit and refine the Output 3 Work Plan. These included the Tajik National University, the Committee on Women and Family Affairs, the Committee of Environmental Protection, Ministry of Agricultural, Committee on Emergency Situations, Youth Ecological Center, World Without Hunger, and a media production company. The local consultations have informed the proposed activities below (see take home messages in Annex 2) and will be the foundation for the development of the National Communications Strategy.

84. Sustainable climate-resilient development in Tajikistan at national, district, and local levels will require supportive activities to harness, compile and share knowledge on projected climate change and its impacts on different regions, sectors and vulnerable groups, and on adaptation measures, tools and methodologies. The knowledge management (KM) activities envisaged include a user-friendly, web-based portal, communications and outreach efforts in urban and rural areas, and capacity building measures. The activities will be designed along the principles of:

enabling integration of climate change adaptation considerations in key national and sector development plans, programs, and policies;

improved access to databases, tools, adaptation guidance and emerging research for stakeholders;

multidirectional knowledge sharing that enables learning from various stakeholders;

exploring and building on existing initiatives and tools;

linking up with and synergistically exploiting existing networks and initiatives; and

building sustainable capacity through “training of trainers.”

85. Agencies such as the UNDP and World Bank have conducted recent stocktaking exercises and multi-stakeholder workshops and assessments45 that provide valuable information on sectoral and cross-cutting impacts of climate change in Tajikistan, the main stakeholders and their knowledge needs, and capacity needs for adaptation by differing climate risk and stakeholder groups. To supplement this information and follow up on several topics directly with key stakeholders, the International Knowledge Management Specialist (Fareeha Iqbal) conducted consultations with Government and NGO stakeholders (Annex 2). 86. The Knowledge Management activities are geared at enabling climate-resilience at the sector development level as well as community level, and thus target three broad sets of stakeholders:

(i) Technical staff at government line ministries. To increase understanding of climate risks and adaptation options in vulnerable sectors (e.g., agriculture and food security, hydropower, disaster risk management) and to provide them with the climate information that assessments show they are lacking46.

(ii) The urban general public. To raise awareness on climate change impacts in Tajikistan, with a strong emphasis on awareness raising among youth.

45

For example, UNDP and World Bank (2012) Capacity Assessment and Awareness Raising on Climate Change in Tajikistan, UNDP; and UNDP and World Bank (2012) Capacity for Climate Resiliency in Tajikistan: Stocktaking and Institutional Assessment, UNDP. 46

ADB. 2011. Technical Assistance to Tajikistan for Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Project. Consultants’ report. Manila (TA 7599-TAJ).


44

(iii) Rural communities. To build resilience at the rural livelihoods level, with an emphasis on women and agricultural communities.

Cross-cutting nature of KM

87. Due to the cross-cutting nature of knowledge management, the components will in some cases be conducted in close cooperation with other aspects of the TA. For example, the KM Specialist, the international climate modeling specialists, the NGO contracted to conduct the climate risk management training (Output 2), and the local Public Participation and Social Development Specialist will work together to implement aspects of the knowledge management program. Engaging local partners to enhance sustainability

88. As regards awareness-raising, an important aspect of the KM activities will be their synergistic engagement with non-government organizations in Tajikistan, drawing upon their reach and expertise, while at the same time enhancing their capacity. Several NGOs (e.g., Youth Ecological Society, Little Earth) are actively engaged in raising awareness on climate change issues in the country. In order to draw upon differing skillsets and distribute local capacity building, one or two local NGOs (depending on their skillsets and expertise) will be sub-contracted to execute awareness-raising aspects of the KM activities (see Table 7). These NGOs will be sub-contracted through an open bidding process in accordance with ADB procurement guidelines. Both NGOs will be required to coordinate closely with each other. All activities will be overseen by the international Knowledge Management (KM) Specialist, with support from the local Public Participation and Social Development Specialist, the IT and Knowledge Management Specialist, and the PPCR Secretariat. An anticipated positive outcome of such extensive involvement of local organizations is long-term sustainability of the KM components; working together with the NGOs and will contribute to long-term continued knowledge management activities.


Table 7. Knowledge Management Related Activities To Be Executed by Local NGOs

Coordination and Organizational Activities

Implementation of surveys in Year 1 and Year 3, writing of report summarizing results Development of radio programs and short TV clips about climate change Organization of a consultative meeting with leading Tajik NGOs to fine-tune KM activities

Assist with organization and interpretation for training of trainers for sector specialists Assist with organization and interpretation for training of trainers for local outpost staff Organize roundtable meetings in Dushanbe as well as in rural outposts Organization of annual dissemination events at local outposts

Knowledge Generation Activities Preparation of factsheets for four priority sectors, with oversight of KM Specialist (Year 2) with

translation Contribution of written pieces about climate change to bulletins brought out by various agencies Development of CD-ROM on climate change for widespread distribution Writing of a chapter on climate change to be introduced into the school Environmental Education

curricula for Grades 5 and 9 (a chapter for each grade level) Regular updating of web-based Knowledge Management Platform on climate change, under KM

Specialist’s guidance Writing and translation of brochures and other printed information material for local outposts


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3.3.1 Conduct National Surveys on Climate Change Awareness (Years 1 and 3)

89. Prior surveys have been undertaken in Tajikistan (e.g., as identified in UNDP, 2012)47 to gauge awareness of climate change and demonstrating that it has grown over time. The surveys that will be implemented under this TA will, in addition to continuing to track awareness, seek to determine the information of most relevance for various stakeholder groups, and the most effective dissemination modes to enable targeted knowledge and information delivery on climate change impacts and adaptation. The survey results from Year 1 and Year 3 will provide an indication of the success of Year 2 efforts in awareness-raising on climate change. The KM Specialist will draft the 2-page surveys in consultation with local stakeholders (See subset of survey questions in Table 8) in Quarter 3, with the implementation of the survey in Quarter 4. One of the sub-contracted48 NGOs will implement the surveys and write up a report summarizing results. The surveys will be implemented in Tajik and Russian through the use of e-mail, telephone, and mail. 90. Two categories of surveys will be implemented:

(a) Organizations and institutions (total to be surveyed: 50): These will include: line ministries and government agencies covering vulnerable sectors; NGOs and community development organizations (including women’s groups, farmers’ organizations, etc.); academia and the private sector. Recommendations will be sought from the PPCR Secretariat, other NGOs, communities and others familiar with climate change stakeholders in Tajikistan on specific people and organizations to select for the surveys.

(b) Households (total to be surveyed: 500): A stratified random sample of 500 households will be conducted by mail (in-person visits are too costly), for vulnerable regions, varying income levels and various climate-sensitive livelihood groups. Table 8: Subset of Questions for the Climate Change Awareness Survey

1. Does your organization work in a sector or on an issue that relates to natural

resources/agriculture, the environment, natural hazards, or vulnerable groups, e.g., women? 2. Do you think climate change poses risks to aspects of your organization’s work? In which

ways? How does the impact on your work translate into potential wider impacts for sectors or people?

3. How many staff members address climate risks and adaptation in their work? How? Do they feel sufficiently competent? Have they received relevant training?

4. Do you feel that your organization has access to sufficient information about climate change and the risks it poses?

5. How do you obtain information about climate impacts and adaptation options? 6. Is your organization taking measures to adapt to climate change? What are the challenges it

has faced? Successes? 7. What kind of information, if any, would your organization like to receive to learn more about

climate change, potential risks posed, and adaptation measures? 8. In what kind of format would this information be most helpful? 9. How frequently would you like to receive this information?

10. Would your organization be willing to contribute to a website to share information on adaptation-related actions with others? How frequently can you do this?

47

UNDP. 2012. PPCR Tajikistan Phase I Component A1 Stocktaking Report and Gap Analysis. Capacity for Climate Resiliency in Tajikistan: Stocktaking and Institutional Assessment. Consultants’ report. Tajikistan 48

All procurement will be done in accordance with ADB Procurement Guidelines (2013).


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3.3.2 Develop a National Communications Strategy (Years 1)

91. The National Communications Strategy is comprised of: (i) development of a Strategy Document as well as (ii) supporting communications activities that stakeholders expressed a demand for during the international KM Specialist’s mission and were recommended by the PPCR Secretariat’s Communications Officer.

92. The National Communications Strategy will be developed by the international Knowledge Management Specialist in Quarter 3 of Year 1, in cooperation with the PPCR Secretariat, and will outline salient climate impacts and adaptation issues for communication to various stakeholder groups. It will also discuss the relative merits of various delivery methods, and identify those that appear most effective. The KM Specialist conducted several discussions in Tajikistan with PPCR staff (including the Communications Officer), NGOs and Government stakeholders to identify (on a preliminary basis) optimal methods of communicating information (Annex 2). Several stakeholders cautioned against developing long articles; many were enthusiastic about CD-ROMs, brief factsheets with good photographs, and short video clips.

93. The overall goal of the Strategy Document will be to enhance the sustainability of development work in vulnerable sectors through provision of relevant information on climate risks and adaptation options. It will target institutions involved in development planning and implementation, such as the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Resources, Committee for Protection of the Environment, and Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense.

94. In addition to preparing the Strategy Document, the KM Specialist will create a CD-ROM that contains summaries of the science of climate change, sector-specific literature, sources of further information, and video clips (with Russian subtitles) by the end of Year 1. This will be followed by the drafting of brief informational documents on climate change in the First Quarter of Year 2 that will be translated into Tajik and Russian and disseminated by the sub-contracted local NGO. These will include short articles for existing relevant bulletins as well as factsheets geared at raising awareness within priority sectors (agriculture and food security, sustainable land management, water resources management, disaster risk management). For example, COEP publishes a monthly magazine and a quarterly newsletter, the Youth Ecological Society distributes an online newsletter, and SugdAgroServ Consulting distributes a newsletter targeting farmers with information on agricultural improvements. 3.3.3 Conduct Public Awareness Campaigns on Climate Change (Year 2)

95. The campaigns will seek to raise awareness among the urban and rural public on climate change risk and adaptation issues and highlight the links between poverty, environmental degradation, and climate change. A large proportion of households that consider themselves well-informed about the consequences of climate change in Tajikistan do not connect climate change adaptation to other key concerns, such as infectious diseases or water availability.49 The substance of the awareness-raising campaigns will target such gaps, as well as those identified by stakeholders in the Year 1 survey.

96. This component will be developed in coordination with the Public Participation Specialist and the implementation led largely by NGOs in Year 2 due to their experience in organizing events and working with urban youth and rural communities. The activities below are

49

UNDP. 2012. PPCR Tajikistan Phase I Component A1 Stocktaking Report and Gap Analysis. Capacity for Climate Resiliency in Tajikistan: Stocktaking and Institutional Assessment. Consultants’ report. Tajikistan.


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suggestions that were made by several stakeholders during the KM Specialist’s mission, including by NGOs (Youth Ecological Center, World Without Hunger), the COEP and other Government stakeholders (the Committee on Women and Family Affairs, Ministry of Agricultural, Committee on Emergency Situations), PPCR Secretariat staff, and academics (Tajik National University). 97. These activities include:

Preparation of press releases for newspapers on climate change events

Radio programs (e.g., interviews with local experts on climate change)

Production and airing of short video clips on climate risks and adaptation measures for television and free dissemination channels on the internet

Two chapters on climate change to be included in the school curricula for Environmental Education (one chapter each for Grades 5 and 9)

3.3.4 Develop a Knowledge Management System (Year 1 - 4)

98. This component involves the creation of a web-based knowledge platform that provides information on climate change, as well as targeted capacity building measures through training of trainers.

3.3.4.1 Develop Climate Change Portal

99. The existing PPCR website for Tajikistan will be scaled up so that a simple, easy-to-use portal of climate information (with content available in English, Tajik and Russian) is created by the end of Year 1 (Output 1). This management system will include pages on which: - Users can obtain general information on climate impacts and adaptation in the Tajikistan

context (for example, by sector); - PPCR lessons and project documentation are available; - Tajik agencies can provide updates on adaptation-relevant work they are engaged in; - Users can access a range of tools, models, and guidance with links to other agencies,

such as the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal50, the UNDP’s Adaptation Learning Mechanism51, and regional knowledge platforms;

- Information is available about ongoing or upcoming climate change events; - Users can look up a database of national experts working on climate change issues.

100. The KM Specialist will develop some of the content, but contributions will also be encouraged directly from Government agencies and NGOs. The KM Specialist will draft material by the end of Year 1, and the portal should be operational by the First Quarter of Year 2. The portal will be maintained by the local IT and Knowledge Management Specialist, working with the PPCR Secretariat Communications Manager, with translation work handled by the local sub-contracted NGO. The design will be refined over Year 2 in response to user feedback. 3.3.4.2 Training of Trainers on Climate Risk

101. The goal of this sub-component is to improve the ability of development professionals and sector specialists to consider climate risk management in their work and for them to be

50

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm 51

http://www.adaptationlearning.net/


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able to train others in their agencies. The project team will conduct two trainings; one for sector specialists and the other for NGO staff at local outposts, both of which will incorporate training-of-trainer elements. Although the content and emphasis at each will be different, a common element will be the use of a participatory climate change game to convey complex concepts around climate change issues. The Red Cross/Red Crescent’s Climate Center has developed several such educational games on climate change and used them to teach professionals as well as rural communities about climate change with great success. Games can speed up learning, dialogue and action on climate risks and engage people's minds and emotions in ways that traditional unidirectional learning cannot.52 This innovative approach to learning has been used at UNFCCC events as well as in remote villages in Latin America and Southeast Asia.

102. The project team has already held discussions with the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Center (RCCC) staff, who have in principle agreed to modify two of their existing games (one for each training) to apply to the Tajikistan context. They have developed games to communicate topics such as risk and uncertainty, natural disaster preparedness, and the importance of income diversification for farmers.

103. There will be two training sessions both in the First Quarter of Year 2, each targeting a different audience:

(i) The first training of trainers will target sector specialists. It will include an educational game introducing climate change risks developed and facilitated by the RCCC.

(ii) The second training of trainers will target key NGO personnel and staff at the local information outposts (3.3.5). The training is planned for the Committee for Women’s Regional Information Center in the Hisor District. It will target NGO staff and extension staff in rural areas that will be disseminating information to the local outposts (3.3.5). The training will help participants in addressing community concerns regarding climate risk, and in providing on-the-ground adaptation advice. The RCCC will be asked to develop and facilitate a separate game for this training.

104. Lastly, the KM Specialist will facilitate South-South learning exchanges with the PPCR teams in Nepal and Bolivia. This will include on-line exchanges and occasional video conferences throughout the four years of the project.

3.3.5 Establish a Network of Climate Information Outposts (Year 2)

105. Initial progress in this regard was made during the international KM Specialist’s visit in August 2013, as several relevant Government agencies and NGOs are working through rural centers or advisory services that could serve as climate information outposts and were interested in the prospect. Iqbal met a number of agencies that have well-established rural centers: the Committee for Women (which has 105 rural centers53), the Ministry of Agriculture (which has over 400 advisory community centers54), the Committee for Protection of the Environment (also runs rural centers), and various NGOs. Each of these agencies was cognizant of the risks posed to climate change, and keen to see information in this regard – as well as advice on adaptation – integrated into the scope of its rural community development work.

52

Bachofen, C, P. Suarez, M. Steenbergen and N. Grist. 2012. Can games help people manage the climate risks they face? The participatory design of educational games. Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre. 53

Personal communication with Ms. Marifat Shokirova, Director, Dept. for Women Development, Committee for Women & Family Affairs, 14 August 2013. 54

Personal communication with Ms. Jamila Saidova, Deputy Minister of Agriculture, 16 August 2013.


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106. About 6–10 climate information outposts will be established by the First Quarter of Year 2, after stakeholder meetings at the end of Year 1. Existing staff at these centers will be provided with relevant informational materials to disseminate among their communities and will be trained in imparting climate change adaptation advice. Selection of specific outposts will be determined at a roundtable meeting of stakeholders and guided by considerations such as:

district vulnerability,

low existing levels of community information about climate change,

need for adaptation advice,

geographic distribution, as well as distribution across different agro-ecological zones,

presence of minority groups, and

diverse sampling of livelihoods.

107. It is envisaged that some of these outposts will also be located in the vulnerable districts that are engaged in adaptation planning (3.2.6). Decisions on the location of outposts will be on a consensus basis. With oversight from the KM Specialist, one of the two sub-contracted NGOs in Dushanbe will be tasked with developing and translating the informational materials to be provided to the various outposts, and the second sub-contracted NGO will be responsible for delivering the materials and coordinating across the centers providing semi-annual progress reports.

3.3.6 Produce Annual Publications on the PPCR in Tajikistan and Quarterly Newsletters (Years 1–4)

108. It is critical that emerging lessons and experience with implementation of the various PPCR knowledge management initiatives are captured and synthesized. In addition to the factsheets produced in Year 1 and contributions to various bulletins, a comprehensive report will be prepared by the KM Specialist with the support of the PPCR Secretariat, summarizing implementation experience and impact of the year’s knowledge management activities.

109. In addition, the local IT and Knowledge Management Specialist has already begun to help the PPCR Secretariat produce newsletters, which are being produced quarterly (March, June, September and December), and is working to re-design the PPCR Secretariat website and create project specific pages.

3.3.7 Hold Annual Dissemination Events in Local Outposts (Years 1–4)

110. It is also vital to disseminate information on climate change risks and adaptation options to rural communities for local adaptation planning in Year 3. The sub-contracted NGO will develop targeted products (video clips, leaflets, posters) for each local outpost explaining climate risk and adaptation issues of relevance for their community. Community members will be able to seek advice and collect informational materials by visiting the center. In addition, annual dissemination events will be held in the middle of each year (coinciding with a festival, such as Nowruz) where, in addition to distributing written material, climate-change-themed plays or adaptation demonstration activities may be shown, developed with the assistance of the sub-contracted NGO.

3.3.8 Hold Mid-Term and Final PPCR Conferences (Years 2 and 4)

111. The PPCR Secretariat will organize national conferences at the end of Years 2 and 4 of the project. These will provide opportunities to discuss country experience with the PPCR process in Tajikistan across all the projects and technical assistance programs, results achieved in the PPCR pilots, challenges and gaps (institutional, informational, capacity, funding), and to plan next steps, including monitoring and evaluation (M&E) measures. Attendees will include stakeholder groups from Tajikistan (government, civil society,


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academia), international development and donor agency representatives, and possibly representatives of regional centers/institutions. The project team will attend these conferences, and the local consultants, in particularly the Office Manager, will provide logistical and technical support.


Activity and Key

Milestone


1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Conduct national surveys on climate change awareness

Select NGO to im-plement surveys

Determine list of or-ganizations to survey and criteria for household sampling.

Draft survey ques-tions

Implement survey and provide summary re-ports in English, Rus-sian, Tajik

Develop a national communications strategy

Draft national com-munications strategy document and re-ceive ADB review

Final Strategy docu-ment prepared and translated

Meet with NGOs to determine specific communications products

Develop fact sheets and short articles on climate change, which are translated and disseminated by NGO

Develop CD-ROM

Conduct public awareness cam-paigns on climate change

Submit press releas-es for newspapers

Develop radio pro-grams

Develop video clips for TV or approved social media sites

Draft chapters on climate change to be


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included in ‘Environ-mental Learning’ cur-riculum for Grades 5,9 and discuss with Ministry of Education

Develop a knowledge man-agement system

Discuss with stake-holders to determine knowledge needs, demands and poten-tial for contribution of information

Daft material for web portal

Test KM with user groups and give demonstrations

Maintain and update KM System

Training of trainers for sector special-ists and NGO staff

Coordinate with Red Cross Climate Center on development of a game and draft mate-rial

Develop material for introductory session of training

Deliver training and game and develop report

South-South learn-ing via videocon-ferences

Facilitate online dia-logue with Nepal and Bolivia PPCR teams to identify areas for knowledge exchange

Hold videoconfer-ences

Draft report on VC outcomes, which is translated to Tajik and Russian

Establish a network of climate Infor-mation outposts

Hold stakeholder meetings to deter-mine potential cen-ters as rural outposts and types of infor-mation for outposts

Select outposts

Provide basic equip-ment (where neces-sary)

Hold meetings in 2 easily accessible re-


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gions to evaluate in-terim experience at the outposts. Adjust program as neces-sary.

Produce annual publications on the PPCR in Tajikistan and quarterly news-letters

Prepare draft report

Prepare final report

Provide support to PPCR Secretariat in preparing newsletters

Hold annual dis-semination events in local outposts

Prepare dissemina-tion material targeted at the needs of the outposts (including factsheets, posters, brochures, videos, training in hands-on demonstrations)

Hold 1-day event at each of the 6-10 out-posts

Sub-contract NGO to compile reports

Draft brief progress report in Years 2, 3 and 4 on the func-tioning of the CC in-formation outpost network

Hold mid-term and final PPCR confer-ences

Assist PPCR Secre-tariat with preparation of supplementary materials (fact-sheets, pamphlets) for distribution at the conference

Hold PPCR confer-ence

Prepare conference Report, which is translated by local NGO into Tajik and Russian

3.4 Output 4: Outputs of the PPCR Are Managed for Results

Performance Targets

Results framework endorsed by PPCR Focal Point by Year 1


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Annual review report produced from Year 1 to Year 4

Progress to Date

112. The main progress on Output 4 concerned the estimation of baselines and targets for the Climate Investment Fund (CIF) Core Indicators. The project M&E Specialists obtained information related to Indicators 4 and 5 from review of project documents. The information has been compiled and aggregated in the indicator worksheets obtained from CIF Administrative Unit. For the baseline estimation of the Core Indicators 1 and 2, the project M&E Specialists led two workshops (mostly with Government officials) on the scorecard process. The first was supposed to be focused on training for the Government, while the second was intended to be the larger multi-stakeholder scorecard exercise. However, due to the absence of NGO representatives and beneficiaries from the investment project sites at the second workshop, the project team believes the process could benefit greatly by holding another workshop by the end of the calendar year to increase the stakeholder engagement and provide additional training and awareness on the CIF indicators and M&E process before the scorecards are finalized. Lessons learned from the multi-stakeholder workshop will continue to inform the stakeholder consultative process going forward. 113. The project includes a component to establish and implement a national (program-level) PPCR M&E system, referred to as Tajikistan’s M&E framework. This framework will include baseline data, target indicators, and gender-sensitive indicators to measure the effectiveness of the government’s program for increasing Tajikistan’s resilience to climate change. Tajikistan’s M&E framework is to be aligned with the PPCR results framework. It will build on the country’s experience in results management. Specifically, the project will use a single reporting framework to monitor the progress of all Phase 2 activities. The Phase 2 work includes activities under this project, as well as the larger set of PPCR projects. In addition, the team is required to produce an annual PPCR effectiveness review, build capacity of PPCR focal points in line ministries in conducting annual evaluations, support independent monitoring and evaluation, and support PPCR capacity through training and technical support.

114. The Tajikistan M&E framework will draw upon the indicators in use by the government and will include the set of Core Indicator and if appropriate, the Optional Indicators developed by the CIF Administrative Unit (AU) for the PPCR. The core indicators will be translated into this Tajikistan M&E framework and will be measured and reported on an annual basis. The M&E framework will optimize shared learning among lead agencies and harmonize monitoring and reporting of all climate resilience initiatives in the country.

115. In 2012, the global PPCR results framework was reduced to the following five core indi-cators:55 (Table 10).

55. Climate Investment Fund Revised PPCR Results Framework report from 5 December 2012 has revised the

number of core indicators to 11 from 22. Out of this, five are core indicators.


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Table 10: CIF Core Indicators

116. The CIF AU has developed scorecards to assess the core indicators. Out of the five Core Indicators, 1, 2 and 3 are qualitative assessments. Indicator 3 focuses on how and to what extent the different PPCR supported tools, instruments, strategies, and activities are being used by different vulnerable stakeholders. Indicator 4 refers to the extent to which vulnerable households, communities, businesses, and public-sector services use these tools. Indicator 5 estimates, to the degree possible, the number of people supported by the PPCR. It includes both targeted (direct) and indirect beneficiaries, those living below the poverty line, and females.

117. Several steps must be undertaken before the Tajikistan’s M&E framework can be de-termined, operationalized, and made sustainable. These will be undertaken in Year 1. The team understands the need to strengthen both institutional capacity and the capacity of hu-man resources within organizations to participate in M&E processes from where information will flow. This capacity is important for getting accredited under the Adaptation Fund as de-scribed in Output 5. The project M&E Specialists will undertake the following activities that will support the dynamism and growth of the institutional mechanism responsible for man-agement and implementation of monitoring and reporting.

Continue dialogue and strengthen working relationships

118. The team will continue dialogue initiated during the inception phase and strengthen working relationships with investment projects, COEP, the PPCR Focal Point, and line minis-tries. The COEP is the lead for national-level monitoring and evaluation of the PPCR, and the PPCR Focal Point, who is also the chairman of the steering group for stakeholder liai-sons, heads the group responsible for assessing the overall progress of PPCR implementa-tion. The M&E Specialists will develop an M&E plan for presentation to the PPCR Focal Point and the COEP by the Third Quarter of Year 1.

Identify government focal point for M&E and form a working committee

119. The team will support the COEP to identify a government focal point for M&E in the Second Quarter of Year 2. This is important to establish early in the process as the person will play a critical role as advisor on the Government’s national monitoring system, and will ensure agreement on frameworks and consistency with other M&E efforts of the Govern-

Degree of integration of climate change in national planning, including sector planning (Core Indicator 1)

Evidence of strengthened government capacity and coordination mechanism to mainstream climate resilience (Core Indicator 2)

Number of people supported by the PPCR to cope with effects of climate change (Core Indicator 3)

Extent to which vulnerable households, communities, businesses, and public sector services use improved PPCR-supported tools, instruments, strategies, and activities to respond to climate variability and climate change (Core Indicator 4)

Quality of and extent to which climate responsive instruments/investment models are developed and tested (Core Indicator 5)


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ment, as well as finalize baselines and targets. The team will support the COEP to identify and establish a working committee in the Third Quarter of Year 1, consisting of focal persons from each lead agency involved in implementation of investment projects. This participation is important to collectively develop the national level framework and work on reporting and monitoring formats, including reporting schedules.


3.4.1 Assess Current M&E Capacity and Reporting Mechanisms (Year 1)

120. The design of a program results framework requires an in-depth review of not only PPCR activities, but also the whole range of other national and sectoral programs, donor funded projects, and other related activities. Gaps will be analyzed in terms of baselines, targets, technology (IT support) or system architecture, and capacity development needs. Assessments will be made at the level of PPCR investments, the project/program level, and also for identification of intervention strategies to set up a unifying reporting mechanism. The team will also assess the capability of existing institutions for conducting independent M&E. Continue Review of Relevant Government Policies and Strategies

121. The M&E Specialists will continue the review of the PPCR strategy, overall poverty reduction strategies for Tajikistan, the MDBs’ country assistance strategies, project appraisal documents of major ongoing projects, and other climate change initiatives, as well as relevant documents in order to broaden the understanding of the context in which the results must be managed. This will be completed by Quarter 3 in Year 1. This is critical not just for setting up a unified results framework, but also to start a continuous updating process throughout the project. M&E methodologies in use by MDBs will be identified in order to take into account any overlaps in terms of activities and data collection and reporting, survey methodologies, formats for collected data, years of record keeping, total staff involved in the exercise, existing staff capacity (training and skills); feedback process, and coordination between the agencies. Since the ultimate goal of the process is to help strengthen M&E systems at the national level to address climate change, it is also important to assess the way data from projects/programs are consolidated at the national level. Because knowledge management and learning are closely tied to monitoring and reporting, the team will investigate whether projects/programs have been including knowledge management activities as part of this monitoring and reporting. Analyze Existing Reporting and Information Flows

122. The M&E Specialists will continue their interaction, initiated during the Inception phase, to strengthen working relations with government officials, representatives of the MDBs and other donors, research organizations, community leaders, and other stakeholders in Tajikistan. This will help identify opportunities for improving the exchange of information and support the development of the climate change knowledge management system (3.3.4). The team will make any recommendations for the improvement of information flows by the Third Quarter of Year 1. Organize an ex-officio M&E Advisory Group

123. The team will organize an M&E Advisory Group by the end of Year 1, comprised of rep-resentatives of the ADB, World Bank, ERBD, Government agencies, university faculty, or-ganizations representing women and marginal groups, and officials from vulnerable districts to share their experience and expertise on M&E in an ex-officio, voluntary advisory capacity. Participants will be rewarded with cutting edge discussions with peers on results-based framework approaches and will contribute to critical thinking and local knowledge on indica-tors, development of gender sensitive indicators, GIS, survey instruments, training content, and the overall M&E framework. Formal meetings will be conducted only when needed. The


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M&E project team will consult with them on ad hoc basis (perhaps twice per year) as key el-ements of the framework are developed.

Site visits

124. Site visits by the M&E Specialists will be conducted to a sample of Phase 2 investment project sites in the Third Quarter of Year 1. The primary purpose of these reconnaissance visits is to obtain first-hand knowledge of on-the-ground conditions and assess the M&E structures and capacity. Discussions with staff at the sites will provide feedback on methods and frequency of data collection by projects and line agency staff, methods used, and the extent of the participatory process adopted. Site visits will be a regular part of the activities beyond the reconnaissance period. These meetings will also involve leaders, Government officials, civil society, and different vulnerable groups.

Perform Capacity Development Needs Assessment

125. Identification of the capacity to carry out M&E activities will require an assessment of the existing technology, equipment, and IT support services that can link the local teams to web-based performance systems. The M&E specialists will carry this out throughout Year 1.

3.4.2 Alignment of Results Framework (Year 1)

126. The PPCR results framework establishes a basis for future monitoring and evaluation of the impact, outcomes and outputs of PPCR-funded activities. This results framework is also designed to guide the countries to further develop a national level results framework, so that the PPCR relevant results and indicators are integrated into country specific monitoring and evaluation systems. The revised M&E framework will draw upon the indicators in use by the Government, and will include the set of five CIF Core Indicators (Table 10), and where, appropriate, the CIF Optional Indicators. As per the CIF, the PPCR results framework sets the number of Core and Optional indicators to 11. These 11 indicators cover two M&E levels: transformational impact (six indicators) and PPCR program outcomes (five indicators).

127. The project M&E team in consultation with the COEP, the PPCR investment project teams, MDBs, Government and NGO stakeholders will identify performance targets and indicators, including gender disaggregated indicators. The draft revised program-level M&E framework will be proposed to the PPCR Focal Point for review by the Third Quarter of Year 1 and will be revised upon consultation with all PPCR executing agencies. The final results framework will be submitted to the COEP and MDBs by the end of Year 1.The approved framework by Year 2 will be used as a basis for proceeding with determining any gaps in baselines, and establishing targets, and conducting the scorecard evaluation. Key performance indicators identified for Tajikistan will be specific with respect to quantity, quality, time, and location, so that they can be monitored effectively. They will be adequate to span key areas of performance and results, but cannot be so numerous that they make monitoring too costly and burdensome. The team will review the baseline data and identify any deficiencies in the data collected.

3.4.3 Data Collection for Baselines and Targets (Year 1)

128. The project M&E team collected data to set targets for CIF core indicators during the Inception Period. This was done in coordination with investment projects and through collation from project level information. As mentioned above the M&E results framework consists of other indicators besides the CIF indicators. The team will work with stakeholders to set the baselines and targets at the project level for all the indicators in the Third and Fourth Quarter of Year 1. Baselines will be presented to the COEP M&E focal point, and the COEP M&E focal point will consult with the implementing agencies to ensure the baselines


57

are appropriate. The baselines will be further confirmed during the consultative scorecard exercise conducted at the end of each year, which will be done in consultation with the implementing agencies. The new program-level monitoring framework will be explained to key stakeholders from the PPCR implementing agencies to seek additional clarification and get suggestions, confirmation, and consensus to the revised framework. The participants will also be introduced to the scorecard exercise.

3.4.4 Establishment of Overall M&E System for the National PPCR Program (Year 1)

129. Results monitoring is a communication tool. It transforms raw data into knowledge and learning. During Year 1, the M&E team will design an overall M&E system, and the process will include the following steps:

consult with project teams, EAs and MDBs to identify a data collection and reporting system;

draft a process for project level data to be collected and fed through a system for national program level monitoring and reporting. Integrate the CIF scorecard activity into the process;

develop the framework for data collection taking into account the gaps identified;

determine the means and frequency of data collection and roles and responsibilities;

design necessary forms, databases, report templates;

seek agreement from key stakeholders who must implement the system at the project level;

draft program level annual monitoring and reporting guidelines.

130. The local IT and KM Specialist will be integral to this process of designing the system. The M&E system will be proposed to the PPCR Focal Point, and the final system delivered at the end of Year 1, after consultation with the EAs and MDBs. The agreed upon system will be made available to executing agencies, MDBs, and consulting teams to be used each year of the program. This preliminary PPCR M&E system will be the first element of a more comprehensive PPCR M&E system developed later, the aim of which will be to provide a consolidated picture of achievements, issues, challenges, and progress towards the desired long-term impact of the PPCR in Tajikistan.

3.4.5 Annual Performance Updates and Review of PPCR (Years 1-4)

131. The project M&E team will support the COEP to coordinate the steps of collecting annual project performance updates and preparing annual reviews of the PPCR done at the end of each year. The indicative timeline for reporting on results from project level to program level on CIF core indicators is set by the CIF Administrative Unit. The investment projects will report project data to the COEP by 30 April each year. The COEP will report M&E results to key stakeholder groups in a results-sharing workshop and scorecard exercise by 31 May each year. By 30 June each year, the PPCR Secretariat reports to COEP the synthesis of the annual M&E process. The PPCR Focal Point reports annual M&E results to the CIF Administrative Unit by 31 July each year. The review, consisting of an implementation progress report, will comprise the following sections: (i) overall implementation status of the PPCR; (ii) key accomplishments; (iii) key issues and challenges; (iv) lessons learned; (v) detailed data reports including on core indicators; (vi) any observed transformative impact in communities, public and/or private sector; and (vii) recommendations or modifications that react to problems encountered or lessons learned.


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3.4.6 Scorecard Evaluation with Multi-Stakeholder Group (Years 1- 4)

132. Scorecard evaluation with a multi-stakeholder group will be an annual activity. In the first year, it relates to setting baselines and targets. In subsequent years, it will be a part of the regular monitoring and reporting process. Baselines and targets will have to be agreed upon with larger multi-stakeholder groups representing line government ministries, EAs, university faculty, organizations or NGOs representing women and marginal groups, and officials from vulnerable districts, along with consultations with the participations of officials and beneficiaries from PPCR project areas. Workshops will be designed to measure baseline perceptions of the program-level framework (namely that indicators are appropriate, baselines are accurate, and targets are realistic and achievable). The workshop also serves an opportunity to share information on the annual process for monitoring and reporting and gather stakeholder views on how to strengthen the system. As noted earlier, the team will organize a another scorecard workshop for CIF Core Indicators in the Second Quarter or Third Quarter of Year 1 in order to ensure that there is adequate coverage of the various stakeholders groups.

133. The national M&E specialist has already started work in identification of non-governmental stakeholders that are critical for this process. In the Second Quarter of Year 2 Saidov will initiate relationship building via the PPCR Secretariat, so as to inform the NGOs of the processes to take place with respect to monitoring and reporting under the PPCR program.

3.4.7 Produce Final Report on Lessons Learned (Year 4)

134. The project M&E specialists will engage in consultations with the stakeholders in Year 4 to gather input from Government and NGO stakeholders on all aspects of the PPCR projects. The meetings will identify what improvements need to be made, as well as successes that should be more widely adopted. Meeting results will be compiled as success stories, lessons learned, and best practices that will be shared on the PPCR Tajikistan website during the last year. They will also be compiled into a final report that will be drafted by the end of the project and shared with all stakeholders. Lessons learned will be given as much weight as success stories, as this is critical to adaptive management. To ensure that all parties read this information, the program will send monthly e-mails to all its stakeholders that include a snapshot of the dashboard and any success stories or lessons learned. Any changes in strategy will be communicated using all lines of communication, including website, e-mails, interpersonal exchanges, meetings, and forums.

3.4.8 Facilitate Independent Monitoring and Evaluation (Years 2 and 4)

135. The team will also work with the COEP and PPCR Secretariat to facilitate independent M&E as required for the operations of the CIF in the second and final years. In the first year of the project, this includes helping the PPCR Secretariat select an organization for conducting independent M&E. The team will work with the COEP and the PPCR Secretariat to evaluate various proposals for formalizing an independent M&E process, and once established, will facilitate M&E by providing all required documents on a timely basis and training of staff.

3.4.9 Provide Technical Support (Years 1–4)

136. Training and capacity strengthening are overarching features of this technical assistance project. It is the intention of the project team that the M&E system should run as a sustainable model and provide continuous inputs to the phases of design, execution, and maintenance, even after project completion. Second, the M&E framework should be set up


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so that it supports accreditation under the Adaptation Fund. Under Output 5, there will likely be M&E training for staff of the proposed National Implementing Entity (3.5.3).

Table 11: Work Plan of Output 4


Activity and Key

Milestone 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Assess current M&E capacity and reporting mecha-nisms

Review relevant gov-ernment policies and strategies

Analyze existing re-porting and infor-mation flows

Organize ex-officio M&E Advisory Group

Conduct site visits to PPCR investment projects

Perform capacity de-velopment needs as-sessment

Alignment of re-sults framework

Propose the draft re-sults framework for review and finalize

Data collection for baselines and tar-gets

Establishment of overall M&E system for the national PPCR program

Consult with stake-holders to identify a data collection and reporting system

Draft a process for project level data to be collected and fed through a system and integrate the CIF scorecard activity into the process

Develop the frame-work for data collec-tion including means


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and frequency of col-lection, roles and re-sponsibilities and de-sign of forms

Propose program lev-el M&E system to Fo-cal Point

Make agreed system available to EAs

Annual Performance Updates and Review of PPCR

Hold multi-stakeholder CIF scorecard workshop to set baselines and targets

Scorecard evalua-tion with multi-stakeholder group

Produce a final re-port on lessons learned

Facilitate independ-ent Monitoring and Evaluation

Provide technical support

3.5 Output 5: PPCR Secretariat Evolves into a National Implementing Entity

Performance Targets

Financial management and administration system by Year 1

Accreditation applied for by Year 3

A permanent government institution on climate change established by Year 4

Progress to Date

137. During the Inception phase, Manmohan Singh Ruprai, the Financial Management and Procurement Specialist, has thoroughly reviewed all Adaptation Fund guidelines, documents and application requirements. During the August mission (Annex 2), Ruprai and the Team Leader had consultations with several possible candidates for the National Implementing Entity, including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development, Committee of Environmental Protection, National Bank, Institute of Economy and Finance, and the State Committee on Investment and State Property Management (described below). 138. To sustain the systems developed and established under this project and ensure that Tajikistan has sufficient resources for adaptation, the PPCR Secretariat must evolve into a National Implementing Entity (NIE) and seek accreditation from the Adaptation Fund Board (AFB). According to the AFB, the Government can nominate any national organization for NIE accreditation as long as it meets certain standards and follows the AFB’s step-by-step accreditation processes. Further, in order for the NIE to access finance through the AFB, the entity must ensure that adaptation finance provided through the fund is used appropriately


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and effectively. 56 Organizations wishing to be accredited as NIEs must demonstrate capabilities and competencies in financial management and integrity, institutional capacity, and transparency, self-investigative powers, and anti-corruption measures (Annex 5).

139. To date, 15 organizations have been accredited by the AFB. All have been private or public organizations that were already in existence prior to the AFB, making it possible to fairly quickly provide independent audits demonstrating adherence to specified fiduciary standards (Table 12).

Table 12: Accredited Adaptation Fund NIEs Worldwide

Legal Entity City Country

Planning Institute of Jamaica Kingston Jamaica Centre de Suivi Ecologique Dakar Senegal Agencia Nacional de Investigacion e Innovacion Montevideo Uruguay National Environment Fund Cotonou Benin

South African National Biodiversity Institute Pretoria South Africa

Protected Areas Conservation Trust (PACT) Belmopan Belize

Ministry of Planning and International Coop. Amman Jordan

Ministry of Natural Resources (MINIRENA) Kigali Rwanda

National Environment Management Authority (NEMA)

Nairobi Kenya

Mexican Institute of Water Technology (IMTA) Jiutepec Mexico

Unidad para el Cambio Rural (Unit for Rural Change - UCAR)

Buenos Aires Argentina

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Dev. Mumbai India

Fundecooperacion Para el Desarollo Sostenible San José Costa Rica

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https://www.adaptation-fund.org/page/apply-for-funding

Box 5: Background on the Adaptation Fund

The Adaptation Fund is financed through a 2% levy from the sale of certified emissions reduction (CER) credits under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). It is possible to access this funding through regional implementing entities (RIEs), multilateral implementing entities (MIEs), and national implementing entities (NIEs). The significant difference between accessing the funding through an NIE, compared with other mechanisms of climate finance, is that it allows countries direct access to development finance through national institutions.

Although RIEs (e.g., West African Development Bank) and MIEs (e.g., World Bank, UN agencies, and bilateral development agencies) may be the best option for some countries—in particular those unable to immediately meet the fiduciary standards of the Adaptation Fund Board (AFB)—they do not provide direct access. The direct access mechanism allows countries to apply to the fund directly through a nominated national organization (an NIE), thus increasing national ownership of adaptation projects and programs. The Adaptation Fund is meant to:

cut out intermediaries to help ensure proper reliance on and harmonization with national systems, plans, and priorities;

help increase the speed of delivery of desired outcomes;

cut transaction costs by controlling core activities; and

potentially achieve better targeting of local priorities.

https://www.adaptation-fund.org/entity/1336-uruguay

https://www.adaptation-fund.org/entity/unidad-para-el-cambio-rural-unit-rural-change-ucar

https://www.adaptation-fund.org/entity/unidad-para-el-cambio-rural-unit-rural-change-ucar

https://www.adaptation-fund.org/entity/fundecooperacion-para-el-desarollo-sostenible


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Agency for Agricultural Development Rabat Morocco

Agencia de Cooperación Internacional de Chile Santiago Chile

140. The NIE experience from other countries offers several lessons for Tajikistan:

The AFB requires a significant amount of supporting documentation. Documentary evidence of procedures that stretch back a number of years is required for the application.

Direct access can be an effective channel. Since it can apply for finance directly, the NIE will benefit from increased ownership of the adaptation process and reduced levels of bureaucracy.

NIE accreditation improves institutional capacity and reputation. The NIE is strengthened by the accreditation process as capacity and project management processes are increased.

See Table 14 for the complete Work Plan for Output 5.

3.5.1 Consultations on NIE and Assessment of Financial & Procurement Capabilities

141. Since establishing the organizational structure of the NIE is the most critical first step, the team will in Year 1 concentrate on consultations with government stakeholders on the most appropriate institutional home for the NIE and assessing its financial and procurement capabilities.

142. During the mission in August 2013, the team met with and identified a number of provisional candidates for the NIE, including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Committee of Environmental Protection, the National Bank, the Institute of Economy and Finance, and the State Committee on Investment and State Property Management (See Annex 2, Table 13).The team will continue to meet with and evaluate the capabilities of the organizations in Year 1. By the end of the Year 1, the team will make a recommendation to the government on the institutional home of the NIE. In order for the NIE accreditation to be successful, the government must be committed to developing a strong institution that meets the requirements for transparency and openness with strong financial management, procurement, and fiduciary standards.

Box 6: Key Factors To Consider in the NIE Accreditation Process

Different types of organizations can become NIEs in order to access money from the Adaptation Fund.

NIEs face common challenges in managing large sums of money and meeting the fiduciary standards of the fund.

Including civil society early in the NIE accreditation process is beneficial for later phases of project implementation.

Some NIEs encounter problems in accessing adaptation finance because of their range of core responsibilities and institutional capacity.

Working with multilateral agencies to develop internationally accepted accreditation standards would allow wider access to adaptation finance for NIEs.

Nations with limited institutional capacity may not be able to establish NIEs; in such cases, RIEs and MIEs can provide access to finance.

The Green Climate Fund will channel even larger amounts of finance than the Adaptation Fund. Institutions that qualify as NIEs may not automatically qualify for direct access to this new fund.

NIEs normally need assistance to continue building their institutional capacity. Source: Adaptation Fund https://www.adaptation-fund.org/national-implementing-entities

https://www.adaptation-fund.org/entity/agencia-de-cooperaci%C3%B3n-internacional-de-chile


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143. Important Factors Accrediting an NIE

Although the NIE must be a government body, it is normally not a main line ministry, but an institute, agency, trust, or bank created by resolutions and bylaws, and acts as the principal instrument of government in the implementation of all policies to the Adaptation Fund.

The legal status of the NIE is best if it is a separate from the existing institutions of the state to prevent any potential conflicts of interest when managing fund financing.

The selected NIE must have a transparent management system, a satisfactory level of existing funds, a project management infrastructure, and the capacity to manage relatively large projects and programs.

Table 13: Possible Candidates for the NIE in Tajikistan

Provisional Candidate Comments

Ministry of Finance (MOF) - Has the necessary capacity and experience to manage the investment projects financed through donor loans, credits, and grants. MOF has the capability to carry out accounting and auditing procedures and periodic assessments and independent audits of fund disbursements. - May not be fully suitable as an independent agency to implement climate change funds. MOF is not required to have its financial statements audited by independent auditor. -In many instances, the functions of the MOF overlap with MOED.

Ministry of Economic Development (MOED)

- MOED has the necessary capacity and experience to manage the investment projects financed through donor loans, credits, and grants. - May not be fully suitable as an independent agency to implement climate change funds, as it is a ministry with other roles and responsibilities.

Committee of Environmental Protection (COEP)

- The Director informed the team that strong cooperation and coordination exists between government agencies and COEP. – - The Director also informed the team that COEP has existing financial management and accounting systems in place, The adequacy of the systems in place will be checked in detail in Year 1. - The Climate Change Center is also located under COEP, which is another advantage. -COEP has the capability of successfully undergoing very rigorous and systematic evaluation by the Adaptation Fund Accreditation Panel after application to the Adaptation Fund Board. - COEP will have to demonstrate that it has the staffing, experience, expertise, and internal controls necessary to properly operationalize the role of NIE and demonstrate adequate capabilities in financial integrity and management, institutional capacity, transparency and self-investigative powers.

National Bank (NB) - The Chairman of the Bank indicated that they were not really an ideal candidate for NIE role as it is primarily a financial institution dealing with monetary issues not environmental and climate change. The National Bank is however willing to be on the board and support the establishment of NIE as a partner. The team shall investigate further the best way to involve the National Bank


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during Year 1.

Institute of Economy and Finance (part of MOF)

- Well equipped to carry out academic management, financial and administrative training including online and distance learning for government staff. - Has limited donor experience. May not be able to adequately demonstrate that it has the capacity to operate in the role of NIE and provide finance and administration, legal services, human resources, procurement and supplies services, internal financial and assets audit, and corporate communications.

State Committee on Investment and State Property Management

- Manages the investment projects financed through budget, donor loans, credits, and grants. Acts as the secretariat for bidding and bid evaluation processes. Is in favor of centralizing procurement processes. - It may not be fully suitable as an independent agency to implement climate change funds as it functions mostly on monitoring budget-oriented processes.

144. During Year 1, the team will conduct two consultative workshops (Quarter 3) to help build consensus around the selection of the NIE. The workshops will include the candidate NIE’s listed above, plus the PPCR Secretariat, PPCR Focal, and representatives of line ministries and NGOs. During these missions, the team will continue to assess the financial management, administrative and procurement capabilities of the candidates in side meetings. By the end of Year 1, the team will make a recommendation of the proposed NIE to the COEP, who will then take further legal action with the support of the project team.

3.5.2 Support the Development of the NIE and Formulate Work Plan (Year 2)

145. Once a recommendation has been made on the proposed NIE, the Team will work closely with the PPCR Secretariat, PPCR Focal Point, Prime Minister’s Office, MOF, MOED, COEP, Public Procurement Agency, Auditor General, for resolution and approval for the NIE and development of the work plan.

146. The work plan will be finalized during the First Quarter of Year 2, and it will include a detailed discussion of needed training in such areas as financial management and integrity and procurement; funding that must be allocated and by when; legal decisions that must be made to formalize the NIE; a timeline for when the institutional setup must be designed and agreed upon; and a strategy on how to merge the PPCR Secretariat into the NIE. The team will draft legal language in the First and Second Quarters of Year 2 that can be incorporated into a formal government decree or proposal, including an outline of specific responsibilities, decision authorities, and reporting functions associated with this entity.

3.5.3 Develop Financial, Procurement, and Administrative Capacity and Systems (Years 2–3)

147. After the legal status has been established, the team will conduct a series of trainings in starting in the Second Quarter of Year 2 and continuing through Year 3 for staff members of the designated NIE. The trainings will be designed to address the gaps in capacity outlined in the Adaptation Fund checklists on financial management and integrity, institutional capacity, and transparency, self-investigative powers, and anti-corruption measures (Annex 5).The trainings will likely include:

Accounting. This will entail two 1-week trainings in Dushanbe by an international accounting consultant for both a senior-level accountant (project accounting, provisions for internal and external audits) and a junior-level accountant (project accounts and statements).


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Project management and procurement. This will include approximately two 2-week trainings in Dushanbe by the international Financial Management and Procurement Specialist. The project management training would include such topics as project life cycle, scheduling, project finance, project reporting, cost control, and risk management. Topics for procurement training would include public procurement reform, national procurement laws and regulations, international procurement procedures (e.g., MDBs), procurement planning, and international competitive bidding.

Miscellaneous training. This could include such topics as: o Legal o Monitoring and evaluation

148. Besides the training the team will put in place software systems for financial management, accounting and project management. The team will make recommendations for the systems by the end of the First Quarter of Year 1 and will begin procuring the software by the Second Quarter of Year 2, with completion by the end of Year 2.

3.5.4 Advise on Other Climate Finance Opportunities (Years 1–4)

149. Over the four years of the project, it is likely that there will be new developments in the international climate change negotiations that will have bearing on Tajikistan, most notably in 2015, when a successor to the Kyoto Protocol must be agreed upon. There likely will be new developments in the area of climate finance. The Green Climate Fund, for example, is expected to channel $100 billion a year by 2020. However, the fund is in its incipient stage and still needs to resolve issues related to its business model, such as how nations will access the fund and the role of the private sector.

150. The project team will support the proposed NIE, and the larger Government of Tajikistan by disseminating information on new climate finance developments and providing advice and consultations, as needed.

3.5.5 Apply for Adaptation Fund Accreditation (Year 4)

151. A final but key step in this project will be to work with the proposed NIE to complete and submit an application for accreditation by the Adaptation Fund. As discussed earlier, the fund maintains a detailed checklist for standards that must be met and documentation that must be submitted (Annex 5). There are several letters of documentation that must be submitted along with the application, including an endorsement letter from Tajikistan’s designated authority (i.e., the PPCR focal point), audited financial statements for the NIE, example financial accounts from donor projects, an internal auditing report, a management and control framework for the organization, and financial projections, among other things. In Year 4, the team will help prepare these documents and will hold regular meetings in-country with the proposed NIE. To facilitate this, the Financial Management and Procurement Specialist will develop a spreadsheet tracker in the First Quarter of Year 4 that will be updated regularly on progress and remaining gaps. It will be housed on the project website, with restricted access. If needed, the team will also correspond and meet with the AFB to clarify requirements and document needs, a process that will be made easier by Abt Associates’ location in metro Washington, DC. The draft application package will be compiled by the end of the Second Quarter of Year 4 for Government review, with the final submission to the by the end of Year 4.

Table 14: Output 5 Work Plan


Activities and Key

Milestones 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4


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Consultations on NIE and assessment of financial and pro-curement capabili-ties

Conduct two consulta-tive workshops on NIE selection (in months 6 to 9 in Year 1)

Propose candidate NIE

Support the devel-opment of the NIE and formulate work plan

Finalize identification of NIE

Complete Work plan for Years 2–4

Draft legal language for establishment of NIE

Develop financial, procurement, and administrative ca-pacity and systems

Conduct 2 one-week training courses on accounting by interna-tional accounting con-sultant

Conduct 2 two-week training courses on project management and procurement by project Financial Management and Procurement Special-ist

Conduct various other training, e.g. M&E and legal procedures

Put software systems for financial manage-ment, accounting and project management in place

Advise on other cli-mate finance oppor-tunities as needed

Apply for adapta-tion fund accredita-tion

Develop spreadsheet tracker for application submission

Conduct consulta-tions with NIE

Compile draft appli-cation materials for Government review

Submit final applica-tion


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Annex 1. Technical Assistance Results Framework

Table 15: Design and Monitoring Framework

57

Design Summary Performance Targets and Indicators with Baselines

Data Sources and Reporting

Mechanisms Assumptions and

Risks

Impact Tajikistan is more resilient to climate variability and climate change

By 2022: Number of people affected from drought and floods reduced by 20% (328,000/year, 1991 to 2011 average)

Losses from drought and floods reduced by 25% ($86 million/year, 1991 to 2011 average)

Statistics of the Committee for Emergency Situations

EM-DAT International Disaster Database

Assumptions Government remains committed to mainstream climate change risk management into national development planning

Outcome National development programs and policies incorporate safeguards to address the effects of climate change

By 2016, 25% of approved projects in irrigation, flood protection, transport, water supply & sanitation, and energy are climate proofed (2011 baseline = 0)

Results management specialist’s assessment report (end of Years 1, 2, 3, and 4)

Assumptions Climate management practices are adopted by the government

Risks Insufficient budget allocation for climate change

Outputs Assumptions 1. Climate change information is available to multiple users

Climate modeling facility established by Year 1 Climate change projections (dynamical downscaling) completed by Year 2 Climate impact assessments completed by Year 2 (water resources, energy, and agriculture) and Year 3 (transport and social development) Climate change science modules integrated in one university academic curriculum by Year 1 (baseline = 0)

Results management specialist’s report (end of Year 1) 3

rd National

Communication to the UNFCCC Results Management Specialist’s assessment report (end of Years 2 and 3) Tajik University Syllabus

Strong cooperation and coordination between Committee of Environmental Protection, Hydromet, and Ministry of Education

Data availability is sufficient for climate modeling

Risks Low retention capacity of trained staff

2. Climate change risks are integrated into Tajikistan’s

50 officials trained on climate change risk management, of which 30% are women

Institute for Continuing Education of Civil Servants Report (Year 2)

Assumptions Strong cooperation and coordination between

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ADB. 2012. Technical Assistance to Tajikistan for Building Capacity for Climate Resilience. Manila (TA8090-

TAJ, $6,000,000) http://www.adb.org/projects/45436-001/main

http://www.adb.org/projects/45436-001/main


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Risks

development planning and implementation of development projects

(2011 baseline = 0) National Strategy on Climate Change Adaptation adopted by Government by Year 3 Local Adaptation Plan developed in 5 districts by Year 3 Guidance manual produced for government and NGOs on how to consult with women and marginalized groups by Year 3

Financial allocation in National Budget (Year 2) Results management specialist’s assessment report (Year 3) Guidance manual (Year 2)

relevant government agencies and Committee of Environmental Protection

3. Knowledge management systems for climate change are developed and applied

Climate change portal operational by Year 1 30% of the population, of which at least 50% are women, is informed on climate change by Year 3 (2010 baseline = 9%

58)

Climate change information services available to 5 vulnerable districts by Year 2 (2011 baseline = 0)

PPCR Secretariat Progress Reports National surveys (Years 1 and 3) Results management specialist’s assessment report

Assumptions Stakeholders, including other development partners, endorse the knowledge management program and are willing to share relevant information

4. Outputs from the PPCR are managed for results

Results framework endorsed by PPCR focal point by Year 1 Annual Review Report produced (Year 1 to Year 4)

Results management specialist’s report Results management specialist’s report

Assumptions Relevant executing agencies and all PPCR project teams endorse and adopt the PPCR results framework

5. Develop the current PPCR Secretariat into a national implementing agency accredited by the Adaptation Fund Board

Financial management and administrative system established by Year 1 Accreditation applied for by Year 3 Permanent climate change government institution established by Year 4

PPCR Secretariat Progress Report Adaptation Fund Board recommendations Government decree with national budget allocation for a National

Assumptions Government is committed to institutionalize climate change risk management through an appropriate government agency

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Based on World Bank, 2010. Tajikistan, Key Priorities for Climate Change Adaptation. Policy Research

Working Paper WPZ5487


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Risks

Implementing Entity

Table 16: Key Results and Milestones

1. Climate change information is available to multiple users

1.1 Train personnel of the Climate Modeling Facility (Year 1) 1.2 Establish a Climate Modeling Facility (Year 1) 1.3 Develop climate change dynamical downscaling (Year 2) 1.4 Develop impact assessments for priority sectors (Year 2 to 3) 1.5 Establish a climate data management system (Year 1) 1.6 Develop climate science modules for education curricula (Year 1) 2. Climate change risks are integrated into Tajikistan’s development projects 2.1 Review national/ sector programs, and national budgets (Year 1) 2.2 Develop climate risk screening tools for priority sectors (Year 1) 2.3 Produce guidance manual on how to consult effectively with poor and marginalized groups (in-

cluding women), (Year 1) 2.4 Develop an climate risk management system (Year 1) 2.5 Design and implement training programs (Year 1) 2.6 Support a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, with allocated national budget (Year 2) 2.7 Develop modalities for a Small Grant Facility (Year 2) 2.8 Support Local Adaptation Plans in 5 vulnerable districts (Year 3) 2.9 Provide technical support to government (Year 1 to 4) 3. Knowledge management systems are developed and applied 3.1 Conduct national surveys on climate change awareness (Year 1) 3.2 Develop a national communications strategy (Year 1) 3.3 Conduct public awareness campaigns on climate change (Year 2) 3.4 Develop a knowledge management system (Year 1 to 4) 3.5 Establish a network of climate information outposts (Year 2) 3.6 Produce annual publications on the PPCR in Tajikistan (Year 4) 3.7 Hold annual dissemination events in local outposts (Years 1 to 4) 3.8 Hold a mid-term and final PPCR conferences (Years 2 and 4) 4. Outputs from the PPCR are managed for results 4.1 Assess current M&E capacity (Year 1) 4.2 Assess baselines and identify indicators for PPCR (Year 1) 4.3 Agree M&E with government agencies and MDBs (Year 1) 4.4 Develop a PPCR Reporting System (Year 1) 4.5 Conduct annual project performance updates (Year 1 to 4) 4.6 Conduct annual review of the PPCR (Year 1, 2, 3 and 4) 4.7 Produce a annual PPCR performance report (Year 1, 2 3 and 4) 4.8 Produce a final report on lessons learned (Year 4) 4.9 Facilitate independent monitoring and evaluations (Year 2 and 4) 4.10 Provide technical support (Year 1 to 4) 5. PPCR Secretariat evolves into a ‘National Implementing Entity’ 5.1 Formulate a 4 year strategy and annual work plan (Year 1) 5.2 Support the PPCR Coordination Mechanism (Year 1 to 4) 5.3 Coordinate and manage Output 3 (Year 1 to 4) 5.4 Coordinate and manage Output 4 (Year 1 to 4) 5.5 Develop financial, procurement and administrative capacity (Year 1)


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5.6 Formulate an exit strategy to create a permanent climate change institution within government (Year 2)

5.7 Agree climate change institution modalities (budget allocation, timeframe, staff requirements, etc.) with government (Year 2)

5.8 Apply for Adaptation Fund accreditation (Year 4)

Annex 2. Mission Meeting Schedules to date

All Outputs

Table 17: Meeting Schedule for the Team Leader’s Mission

(May 2013)

Date Organization\Institution Person Position

20 May PPCR Secretariat PPCR Secretariat Team:

Ilhom Rajabov

Zafar Mahmoudov

Farhod Abdujaborov

State Administration for Hydrometeorology

Mahmad Safarov Director

Committee of Environmental Protection

Khikmatullo Nazirov

First Deputy Chair

Executive Office of the President of Tajikistan

Khayrullo Ibodzoda

Head of the Emergency Environment Department, PPCR Focal point in Tajikistan

21 May Committee for Women and Family Affairs

Marifat Shokirova Head of Women Development Department

World Bank Farzona Mukhitdinova

Operations Analyst

Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Resources

Husniddin Sharofiddinov

Administration and Pumping Facility Monitoring Lead Specialist

Rahmatullo Karimov

Deputy Minister

Dilshod Kimsanov Head of administration for Science and International


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Relations

22 May Ministry of Finance Nazrullo Abibulloev

Head of Administration for National Budget

JCC Barki Tojik Homidjon Aripov

Ministry of Agriculture Jamila Saidova Deputy Minister

Tojiniso Nosirova Consultant

Jumaboi Kurbonov

Head of Department of Science and Realization of Scientific Achievements

23 May State Unitary Enterprise Alimurod Tagoimurodov

General Director

Ministry of Energy and Industry

Boboev Haqnazar Head of Labor and Ecology Protection Department

Committee of Emergency Situation

Alisho Shomahmadov

Consultant to the Chairman of the Committee

Colonel Shomahmad Zainiddinov

Deputy Head of Civil Defense and Territory Management

Lieutenant-colonel Abdelnosir Bektoshev

Officer at Civil Defense and Territory Management

Lieutenant Sadi Mahmadov

Officer of International Department

24 May 24 May

Meeting with NGOs

Focus Humanitarian Assistance

Farrukh Lalani Senior Program Officer

Youth Ecological Centre Yuriy Skochilov Director

Mountain Societies Development Support Programme (MSDSP), Aga Khan Foundation

Kishvar Abdulalishoev

General manager

United Nations Development Programme (Not an NGO)

Khurshed Kholov Program Manager

Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation

Larisa Kamilova Assistant of Director

Mass Media Surayo Shujoat

Cooperazione e Sviluppo Giuseppe Bonati Deputy Country


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(CESVI) Director

Donor agencies

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ),

Benjamin Neusel Advisor

European Union Khudonazar Ojimamadov

Program Manager

Output 4: Outputs of the PPCR Are Managed for Results

Table 18: Schedule for Suman Rimal Gautam, International M&E Specialist

(August 2013)

Date Meetings

3 August Met PPCR staff

5 August Met with PPCR staff and national M&E specialist

Discuss M&E progress and plans and work schedule for the weeks ahead

6–7 August Met with COEP/Hydromet

Meetings and consultations with sectoral representatives from government agencies to get their comments and feedback

Work with the PPCR Secretariat to organize the M&E training and scorecard workshops

8–12 August Preparations for the M&E training and scorecard workshop with national M&E specialist

13 August Conducted M&E training workshop with implementing agencies and post-mortem on training

14 August Prepare for M&E scorecard workshop

15 August Conducted M&E scorecard workshop

15–16 August

Analyze and compare outcome of scorecard workshop and work on the outline of report

19–20 August

Work with national M&E specialist on planning and organizing the next steps for the M&E process and report writing

Output 3: Knowledge Management Systems Are Developed and Applied

Table 19: Meeting Schedule for Fareeha Iqbal, International Knowledge Management Specialist

(August 2013)

Date Meetings

14 August Sitora Mirzokhanova, Professor, Dept. of Physics, Tajik National University

Marifat Shokirova, Director, Dept. for Women’s Development, Committee on Women and Family Affairs

Salimov Talbak, Committee of Environmental Protection

15 August Farzona Mukhitdinova, Operations Officer, World Bank

Nazir Nazirov (Director), Sodiqova Sulhiya (Manager)


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Information Resources Center, Committee of Environmental Protection

16 August Yuri Skochilov (Executive Director, Youth Ecological Center), Davlatbibi Imomberdieva (World Without Hunger), Tatiana Alikhanova (independent expert)

Jamila Saidova, Deputy Minister of Agriculture, and Safarov Sherali, Director, Dept. for International Cooperation, Min. Agriculture

Natalia Mirzokhonova (Monitoring Specialist), and Colonel Jamshed Kamolov

Committee on Emergency Situations

19 August Surayo Shujoat, founder/owner, Sadoi Dushanbe (media production company)

Table 20: Take Home Messages from Knowledge Management Consultations

1) Sitora Mirzokhanova, Professor, Dept. of Physics, Tajik National University

Consider including climate change issues in either the Geography or Envi-

ron-mental Studies school curricula

Next step: Talk to someone in Education Ministry

2) Marifat Shokirova, Director, Dept. for Women’s Development, Committee on Wom-

en and Family Affairs

Provide basic equipment to local Committee centers;

Build capacity of Regional Information Center to train local centers about

climate change;

Develop materials for distribution in local languages to raise awareness on

climate change at the community level, focusing on women’s vulnerability;

Provide computing facilities to local centers;

Provide Internet to the local centers.

Tie in with Strategy’s goal of awareness-raising to inform women about

climate

3) Farzona Mukhitdinova, Operations Officer, World Bank

Consider how to coordinate knowledge management efforts across the

PPCR projects; each sub-project is likely to develop capacity-building,

knowledge management and awareness-raising components

Keep products targeted, brief, and easy to understand; do not rely on inter-

net

Synergize with World Bank land management project on NGO capacity

building component;

Link to, rather than duplicate, information in other tools

4) Nazir Nazirov (Director), Sodiqova Sulhiya (Manager) Information Resources Cen-


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ter, Committee of Environmental Protection

Distribute CDs with detailed information and resources

Concise, visually appealing, easy-to-read 2-pagers needed on climate

change

There is a demand for seminars given by international experts

Use TV! It’s low-cost and popular

Use radio! Very low cost and also popular (interviews/quizzes)

Literacy rates are high even in rural areas so booklets would be good

5) Yuri Skochilov (Executive Director, Youth Ecological Center), Davlatbibi Imomber-

dieva (World Without Hunger), Tatiana Alikhanova (independent expert)

Short, solution-oriented, easy-to-understand videos are needed. NGOs can

get volunteers to help make these and post them on YouTube

Quizzes and competitions are great for engaging youth – maybe on Earth

Day

In rural areas, always involve local admin officials

When working with communities, use local CBOs, not international NGOs

The YEC sends out a weekly newsletter on CC based on a range of

sources; they need translation help (from English to Russian/Tajik)

Output 5: PPCR Secretariat Evolves into a National Implementing Entity

Table 21: Meeting Schedule for Manmohan Singh Ruprai, Financial Management and Procure-

ment Specialist (August 2013)

Date Meetings

14 August Djamoliddin Nuraliev, Deputy Minister of Finance

Salimov Talbak, Chairman COEP

17–22 August Several meetings with PPCR consultants to review possible National Implementing Entities and the UNFCCC and Adaptation Fund guidelines, documents and application requirements.

Review of the public procurement, legal framework and regulatory institutions in Tajikistan

22 August Rahmatullo Mirboboyev, Director of Institute of Economy and Finance

23 August Abdujabbor Shirinov, National Bank Chairman

Jamshed Shoimov, Head of Department, State Committee on Investment and State Property Management


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Annex 3: Workshop Agendas and Participants Lists

Output 1: Climate Change Information Is Available to Multiple Users

Table 22: Climate Modeling Workshop Agenda

(17–19 July, Dushanbe, Tajikistan)

Day 1: Introduction and Review of Current State of Climate Modeling Capacity in Tajikistan

09:00–9:45 Welcome from Hydromet, PPCR Secretariat

Overview of project and workshop goals (Michael Westphal, Team Leader)

Introduction of the local stakeholders

Group photo

9:45–10:45 Overview of Hydromet: structure, projects, climate modeling and Hydromet expertise, capacity and needs

Speaker: Karimjon Abdualimov

10:45–11:00 Morning tea

11:00–11:45 Climate modeling and training under the Third National Communication in Tajikistan

Speaker: Abduhamid Kayumov

11:45–12:30 Improvement of Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Service Delivery Project in Tajikistan

Speaker: Saidahmad Dustov

12:30–13:30 Lunch break

1:30–2:30 Introduction of CLIMsystems: Perspectives and experience in climate change modeling, impacts and adaptation

Speaker: Yinpeng Li, CLIMsystems

2:30–3:00 Group discussion

3:00–3:15 Tea break

3:15–5:00 Presentation and discussion: dynamical and statistical downscaling

- Pros and cons, examples, international efforts climate - Scenarios and uncertainty

Speaker: Yinpeng Li

Day 2: From Tools and Software to Sustainable Climate Modeling and Planning in Tajikistan

09:00–10:30 Tools and software for climate modeling and downscaling

Speaker: Yinpeng Li


10:45–11:30 Presentations from Tajikistan stakeholders: Current models,


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tools, Hydromet database systems in Tajikistan

Speaker: Olimov Suhrob, Hydromet

11:30–12:30 From climate modeling to sectoral impact modeling and adaptation planning: Existing plans, capacity and gaps

Speakers: Khomidjon Oripov, Barqi Tojik; Husniddin Sharofiddinov, Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources; N.A. Mirzokhonova, Committee of Emergency Situation and Civil Defence


1:30–3:00 How to create a long-term and sustainable Climate Modeling Facility—Climate modeling, tool development and training needs for the project (group)


3:15–4:30 How to create a long-term and sustainable Climate Modeling Facility—Part 2 (group)

4:30–5:00 Review the agenda for Day 3—Work plans for project outputs:

Output 1: Provide climate information to multiple users

Output 2: Climate change risks are incorporated into Tajikistan’s development projects

Day 3: Development of Project Work Plan and Identification of Main Counterparts

09:00–10:45 Establishment of a Climate Modeling Facility (group):

- Computers and databases - Software - Computer room - Support personnel - Training


11:00–12:30 Development of Climate Downscaling (group):

- Dynamical downscaling - Statistical downscaling


1:30–2:45 Development of impact assessments for priority sectors (group)


3:00–4:00 Establish a climate data management system and screening tool (group)

4:00–5:00 Development of climate science modules for education curricula

Sitora Mirzokhonova, Tajik National University, and group

Conclusions/Wrap-up Michael Westphal, Hydromet, PPCR Secretariat


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Table 23: Participants for the Climate Modeling Workshop

№ Organization Name of Participant Position

1 Third National Communication Team

Zoirshoh Kabutov Modeling expert

2 Soil Institute,

Academy of Agriculture Science

Gulnisso Nekushoeva Head of department

3 Tajik National State University,

Department of Meteorology

Sitora Mirzokhonova Assistant

4 National Centre on Biodiversity Safety

Nozanin Rasulova Specialist

5 State Administration for Hydrometeorology (Hydromet),

Department of Hydrology

Nasim Rajabov Head, Hydrology Department

6 Hydromet,

Department of Glaciology

Sattor Saidov Specialist

7 Hydromet,

Communication Centre

Suhrob Olimov Head, Communication Centre

8 Third National Communication Team

Abdulhamid Kayumov Communications Specialist

9 Hydromet,

Monitoring Laboratory for Water Surface Pollution and Radiation

Sangin Samiev Specialist, Air/water Monitoring Centre

10 Hydromet,

Agrometeorology Department

A. Muminov Senior Specialist

11 Hydromet,

State Network Department

Ramziya Khudoyorova Head

12 Committee of Emergency Situation and Civil Defense, Information Management and Analytical Centre

N.A. Mirzokhonova Senior Specialist

13 Committee of F. Juraev Officer


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Emergency Situation and Civil Defense,

Engineering Department

14 JSC Barqi Tojik,

Hydro-technical Service Department

Khomidjon Oripov Head

15 Hydromet,

Hydrometcentre

Jamilya Baidulloeva Head

16 Hydromet,

Meteorological Forecasting Department

Parvin Saidjamalova Head

17 Climate Change Centre,

Committee of Environmental Protection

Faridun Sobirov Specialist

18 PPCR Secretariat Umeda Rajabova Intern

19 PPCR Secretariat Takhmina Akhmedova Intern

20 Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources,

Department of Science

Piriev Badriddin Specialist

21 Ministry of Agriculture,

State Seed Inspection Organization

J. Azizov Deputy Head

22 Vohid Homidov

23 Abt Associates Nasridin Minikulov TA Consultant Climate Modeling Specialist

24 Abt Associates Michael Westphal TA Consultant Team Leader

26 Abt Associates Yinpeng Li TA Consultant Climate Modeling and Impact Assessment Specialist

29 ADB Zarrina Abdulalieva Contact point for PPCR

30 WB Farzona Muhitdinova/ Takhmina Mukhamadieva

Contact point for PPCR

31 EBRD Jamshed Rahmonberdiev

Contact point for PPCR


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Output 4: Outputs of the PPCR Are Managed for Results

Table 24: Program-Level Monitoring Framework Training Workshop for Government Repre-sentatives

(13 August 2013)

Introduction

2:00–2:15 Welcome from Hydromet, PPCR Secretariat

2:15–2:30 (i) Objective of the workshop including a short overview of the PPCR in Tajikistan, investment projects and their status—PPCR Secretariat

(ii) Introduction to the CDTA and its role in setting up the national level monitoring framework for the PPCR—Michael Westphal, team leader

2:30–2:45 Introduction—Participants

2:45–3:15 Introduction/background to the program level monitoring framework—Suman Rimal Gautam, M&E Specialist

3:15–3:30 Questions and answers


3:45–4:00 CIF Core Indicators and Reporting Mechanisms—Suman Rimal Gautam

4:00–4:30 Scorecard exercise (scorecard process)—Led by Firuz Saidov, M&E specialist, Suman Rimal Gautam

4:30–5:00 Discussions and feedback from participants on the framework and reporting—Moderated by Firuz Saidov

5:00–5:15 Conclusion and wrap up—PPCR Secretariat

Table 25: Climate Investment Fund M&E Scorecard Workshop (15 August 2013)

9:00 - 9:45 Welcome from Hydromet, PPCR Secretariat

(i) Objective of the workshop and overview of the PPCR in Tajikistan—PPCR Secretariat

(ii) Introduction to the CDTA and its role in setting up the national level monitoring framework for the PPCR—Michael Westphal, team leader

9:45 - 10:00 Introductions—Stakeholders

10:00 - 10:30 PPCR Investment Projects—Firuz Saidov, national M&E specialist

10:30 - 10:45 Tea break

10:45 - 11:30 Introduction and explanation of the program level framework and reporting mechanisms—Suman Rimal Gautam, M&E specialist


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12:00 - 1:00 Lunch

1:00 - 1:30 Use of “scorecards” in monitoring and evaluation—Firuz Saidov

1:30 – 3:00 Scorecard exercise—Led by Firuz Saidov with support from Suman Rimal Gautam, Zafar Mahmoudov

3:00 – 3:15 Tea break

3:15 - 4:00 Perceptions on the program level framework and feedback from stakeholders

4:00 - 4:30 Conclusions and wrap up—PPCR Secretariat

Table 26: Climate Investment Fund M&E Scorecard Workshop Participants List (13 August 2013)

No. Organization Name of Participant Position

1 State Administration for Hydrometeorology of the Committee for Envi-ronmental Protection

Mahmadsafar Safarov Director

2 Ministry of Finance N. Menlasheva Specialist in Microcredit

2 Committee of Emergen-cy Situations and Civil Defense under the Gov-ernment of Tajikistan

Jamched Kamolov Head of the Department of Civil Defence

3 The Ministry of Econom-ic Development and Trade

Salomat Ikromova Chief Specialist- Sectoral Development of Agriculture and the Environment

4 Committee of Emergen-cy Situations and Civil Defense under the Gov-ernment of Tajikistan

F. Saidov Chief Specialist of the Civil Defense

5 Scientific Research In-stitute of Water Re-sources under the Min-istry of Irrigation and Water Management

Alikhon Karimov Director

6 Improvement of Weath-er, Climate, and Hydro-logical Service Delivery Project (WB)

Irina Zakharova Assistant translator and M&E support


Faridun Sobirov Chief Specialist


Suhrob Olimov Head for Automated Com-munication


10 PPCR Secretariat Umeda Rajabova Specialist


12 Abt Associates Suman Rimal Gautam TA Consultant M&E Specialist

13 Abt Associates Firuz Saidov TA Consultant


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M&E Specialist

14 Abt Associates Qurbonjon Kabutov TA Consultant Energy and Transport Spe-cialist

15 Abt Associates Nasridin Minikulov N TA Consultant Climate Modeling Specialist

16 Abt Associates Anvar Homidov TA Consultant Water Resources Specialist

17 Kamoliddin Adbdulloev Independent Consultant in Pyanj and Kulob Districts

18 PPCR Secretariat Ilhom Rajabov TA Consultant Chief Technical Advisor

19 PPCR Secretariat Zafar Mahmudov TA Consultant Communications Manager

20 PPCR Secretariat Farhod Abdujaborov TA Consultant Senior Administrator

21 Veronika Grushevckaya Interpreter

Table 27: Climate Investment Fund M&E Scorecard Workshop (15 August 2013)

No. Organization Name of participant Position

1 State Administration for Hy-drometeorology of the Com-mittee for Environmental Pro-tection

Mahmadsafar Safarov Director

2 Committee of Emergency Sit-uations and Civil Defense un-der the Government of Tajiki-stan

Jamched Kamolov Head of the Depart-ment of Civil Defence

3 The Ministry of Economic De-velopment and Trade

Salomat Ikromova Chief Specialist-Sectoral Develop-ment of Agriculture and the Environment

4 Committee of Emergency Sit-uations and Civil Defense un-der the Government of Tajiki-stan

F. Saidov Chief Specialist of the Civil Defense

5 Improvement of Weather, Cli-mate, and Hydrological Ser-vice Delivery Project (WB) (Project Management Unit)

Irina Zakharova Assistant Translator and M&E support

6 The Ministry of Economic De-velopment and Trade

Muhsin Jonmakhmadov Head of Business Development Sectors of Agriculture and the Environment

7 Ziraki Jamoat, Kulyab Region Sabagul Valieva Head of Jamoat

8 Department of Water Re-sources, Pyanj District

Abdullo Dorgaev Head of Water Re-sources, Pyanj Dis-trict

9 Scientific Research Institute of Water Resources under the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Management

Alikhon Karimov Director



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Rashid Davlatov Specialist, Glaciology and Hydrometeorol-ogy

12 PPCR Secretariat Umeda Rajabova Intern

13 Department for International Development (DFID) Tajikistan

Mahvash Kalandarova Project Officer


Suhrob Olimov Communications Specialist


Faridun Sobirov Chief Specialist

16 Department of Environmental Protection, Kulyab Region

Isroil Nazarov Chief

17 ADB Tajikistan Resident Mis-sion

Shavkat Vosiev Administrator

18 Improvement of Weather, Cli-mate, and Hydrological Ser-vice Delivery Project (WB) -Component C: Hydrometeor-ology Modernization in Tajiki-stan

Saydahmad Dustov Director

19 PPCR Secretariat Ilhom Rajabov TA Consultant Chief Technical Ad-visor

20 PPCR Secretariat Farhod Abdujaborov TA Consultant Senior Administrative Officer

21 PPCR Secretariat Zafar Mahmudov TA Consultant Communications Manager


23 Abt Associates Suman Rimal Gautam TA Consultant Monitoring and Eval-uation Specialist

24 Abt Associates Firuz Saidov TA Consultant Monitoring and Eval-uation Specialist

25 Abt Associates Qurbonjon Kabutov TA Consultant Energy and Transport Specialist

26 Abt Associates Anvar Homidov TA Consultant Water Resources Specialist

27 Abt Associates Nasridin Minikulov TA Consultant Climate Modeling Specialist

28 Princeton University, Depart-ment of Anthropology

Igor Rubinov PhD Researcher

29 Veronika Grushevckaya Translator (Russian)

30 Dilshod Nadyrov Interpreter (Tajik)


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Annex 4: Proposed Renovation of Hydromet Space

Background:

Hydromet has provided three rooms on the Hydromet campus to be used as both project office space and to house the Climate Modeling Facility. The team believes there is no alternative space available. The previous space provided for personnel of the ADB project on flood management in Khatlon Province can accommodate only 3 consultants and is also too small for the Climate Modeling Facility. Hydromet is not planning to build a new building that can be used for this project.59

It is necessary to renovate the space before it can be used as an office space or Climate Modeling Facility, and it will be impossible to accomplish the goals of this project without immediate renovation. The recommendations for the renovation of the space on the Hydromet campus are based on site inspections by the project teams during missions to Tajikistan (Annex 2). Many of the renovations, with the exception of those specific to the Climate Modeling Facility are similar to the renovations that have been done for the space given by Hydromet for the World Bank Hydromet modernization project.

The renovations can be grouped into three categories:

(i) Livability/Functionality. In order for the rooms to be usable as office space, basic renovations are needed to make the space habitable (e.g., repairing interior and exterior walls, ceilings and floors; installing lighting systems and heating and air-conditioning units) and functional electrical re-wiring.

(ii) Safety and Security. This is necessary for the safety and security of staff and to deter property theft of the expensive computer cluster. These measures include repairing stairs, adding smoke detectors, sealing some windows, adding anti-theft grills to some windows, adding steel doors, the limited use of barbed wire, and putting in motion sensors and exterior flood lights.

(iii) Climate Modeling-Specific. In order to house a computer cluster (15 computers in Room 3), there are several important refurbishments that are needed: reinforcing the floor to handle the weight of the servers and installing air-conditioning units and back-up generators.

Description of the Rooms:

Each room is one story with separate entrances. If you are looking at them directly, Room 1 is to the far left and is approximately 25 m2. The middle room and the room to the far right are approximately 15 m2. The inside height of the rooms is between 2.30 and 2.50 m. The plan would be to connect Rooms 1 and 2 and but keep the separate entrance for Room 3, as it will house the computer servers for the Climate Modeling Facility.

Room 1:

Seal back windows.

Seal front door and make it a window. Therefore, there would be two windows facing the courtyard. Both windows need to be replaced and should have anti-theft grills on them.

Repair ceiling and walls and possibly the floor (plus painting and plastering).

Rewire the electrical system.

Install a lighting system.

Install a smoke detector.

Install one 120 m3 capacity air conditioning unit.

59

Ilhom Rajabov, PPCR Secretariat, based on conversations with Director Safarov of Hydromet.


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Replace current door with a solid steel door with very secure lock.

Create portal between Room 1 and 2.

Rooms 2 and 3:

Seal back windows.

Replace both courtyard facing windows (and include anti-theft grills).

Repair ceiling and walls (also painting and plastering).

Possibly replace the floor in Room 2. In Room 3, cement the bottom of the floor, as there will be considerable weight added to Room 3.

Completely rewire the electrical system.

Install a lighting system.

Install a smoke detector.

Install one 120 m3 capacity air-conditioning unit in Room 3 and one 90 m3 air conditioning unit in Room 2.

Replace current doors with solid steel doors with very secure locks.

Stairs—partial repair, handicap ramp for disable, bridge between two others. Outside (Courtyard Side):

Fix steps (add cement) to provide handicap accessibility to both doors to Rooms 2 and 3.

Install one flood lamp and motion senor to the backside of the building and one flood lamps and motion sensors to the courtyard side of the building.

Install 10 meters of barbed wire for the outside wall just to the right of Room 3.

Reinforce outside walls by erecting steel I-beams frame.

Install electrical generator (10kWt) generator and steel cage.

Painting and plastering of the outside of the building.

Table 28: Summary of Refurbishment Recommendations

Description of Task Estimate (TJS)

Removal of old window and doors 908

Removal of pipes and heaters 462

Dismantling of the wall, fixing of door and windows, plastering

5,527 Installation of steel crosspieces

1,593 Installation of PVC window, steel doors

and bars on windows 5,364

Arrangement of suspended ceiling from gypsum plasterboard

3,994 Finishing plastering, puttying, painting

12,286 Repair of floor

11,496 Rehabilitation of stairs

2,774 Installation of air conditioner

10,503 Strengthening of external wall with steel

beams 3,323

Electrical rewiring 3,705

Installation of automatic generator 32,700

Installation of fire alarm 5,500


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TOTAL: 100,135

Annex 5: Standards for National Implementing Entity (NIE) Accreditation—Simplified Checklist60

This is a simplified checklist of the required capabilities and competencies required to become an accredited National Implementing Entity (NIE) organization. (i) Financial Management and Integrity Specific Capabilities Required:

(a) Legal status to contract with the Adaptation Fund Board. (b) Accurately and regularly record transactions and balances in a manner that adheres

to broadly accepted good practices and are audited periodically by an independent firm or organization.

(c) Managing and disbursing funds efficiently and with safeguards to recipients on a timely basis.

(d) Produce forward-looking financial plans and budgets.

Table 29: Required Competencies for Financial Management and Integrity

Competencies

- Legal status: Demonstration of legal capacity/authority and the ability to directly receive funds

- Financial statements including project accounts statement and the provisions for internal and external audits

- Internal control framework with particular reference to control over disbursements and payments

- Preparation of business plans and budgets and ability to monitor expenditure in line with budgets

(ii) Requisite Institutional Capacity Specific Capability Required:

(a) Ability to manage procurement procedures, which provide for transparent practices, including competition.

(b) Ability to identify, develop, and appraise projects. (c) Competency to manage or oversee the execution of projects/programs, including

ability to manage sub-recipients and to support project/program delivery and implementation.

(d) Capacity to undertake monitoring and evaluation.

Table 30: Required Competencies for Institutional Capacity

Competencies

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Adaptation Fund: https://www.adaptation-fund.org/page/apply-for-funding


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- Procurement: Evidence of transparent and fair procurement policies and procedures at the national level that are consistent with recognized international practice (including dispute resolution procedures)

- Project preparation and approval: This should include impact (environment, socio-economic, political, etc.) assessment study with risk assessment and mitigation plans

- Project implementation planning and quality-at-entry review

- Project monitoring and evaluation during implementation

- Project closure and final evaluation

(iii) Transparency, self-investigative powers, and anti-corruption measures Specific Capability Required:

Competence to deal with financial mismanagement and other forms of malpractice.

Table 31: Required Competency for Malpractice

Competency

Policies and framework to deal with financial mismanagement and other forms of malpractices: Demonstration of capacity and procedures to deal with financial mismanagement and other forms of malpractice

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