4.3 NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS The Most Important Probability Distribution in Statistics.
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Transcript of 4.3 NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS The Most Important Probability Distribution in Statistics.
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4.3 NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
The Most Important Probability Distribution in Statistics
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A random variable X with mean and standard deviation is normally distributed if its probability density function is given by
...71828.2eand...14159.3where
xe2
1)x(f
2x
)2/1(
...71828.2eand...14159.3where
xe2
1)x(f
2x
)2/1(
Normal Distributions
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The Shape of Normal Distributions
Normal distributions are bell shaped, and symmetrical around
Why symmetrical? Let = 100. Suppose x = 110.
2210
)2/1(100110
)2/1(e
21
e2
1)110(f
Now suppose x = 9022
10)2/1(
10090)2/1(
e2
1e
21
)90(f
11090
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Normal Probability Distributions
The expected value (also called the mean) E(X) (or )can be any number
The standard deviation can be any nonnegative number
The total area under every normal curve is 1
There are infinitely many normal distributions
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Total area =1; symmetric around µ
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The effects of The effects of and and
How does the standard deviation affect the shape of f(x)?
= 2
=3 =4
= 10 = 11 = 12How does the expected value affect the location of f(x)?
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X83 6 9 120
A family of bell-shaped curves that differ only in their means and standard deviations.
µ = the mean of the distribution
= the standard deviation
µ = 3 and = 1
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X3 6 9 120
X3 6 9 120
µ = 3 and = 1
µ = 6 and = 1
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X83 6 9 120
X83 6 9 120
µ = 6 and = 2
µ = 6 and = 1
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X
Probability = area under the density curve
P(6 < X < 8) = area under the density curve between 6 and 8.a b
ba
3 6 9 12
P(6 < X < 8) µ = 6 and = 2
0 X
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X
Probability = area under the density curve
P(6 < X < 8) = area under the density curve between 6 and 8.a b
ba
83 6 9 12
P(6 < X < 8) µ = 6 and = 2
0
6 8
6 8
X
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X
Probability = area under the density curve
P(6 < X < 8) = area under the density curve between 6 and 8.a b
ba
6 8
6 8
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a b
Probabilities:area undergraph of f(x)
P(a < X < b) = area under the density curve between a and b.
P(X=a) = 0
P(a < x < b) = P(a < x < b)
f(x) P(a < X < b)
X
P(a X b) = f(x)dxa
b
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Standardizing
Suppose X~N( Form a new random variable by
subtracting the mean from X and dividing by the standard deviation :
(X This process is called standardizing the
random variable X.
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Standardizing (cont.)
(X is also a normal random variable; we will denote it by Z:
Z = (X has mean 0 and standard deviation
1:E(Z) = = 0; SD(Z) =
The probability distribution of Z is called
the standard normal distribution.
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Standardizing (cont.) If X has mean and stand. dev. , standardizing
a particular value of x tells how many standard deviations x is above or below the mean .
Exam 1: =80, =10; exam 1 score: 92
Exam 2: =80, =8; exam 2 score: 90
Which score is better?
1 exam on 92 than better is 2 exam on 90
1.258
10
8
8090z
1.210
12
10
8092z
2
1
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X83 6 9 120
µ = 6 and = 2
Z0 1 2 3-1-2-3
.5.5
µ = 0 and = 1
(X-6)/2
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Pdf of a standard normal rv
A normal random variable x has the following pdf:
zez
forandforsubstituteNZ
xexf
z
x
,2
1)(
becomes rv normal standard for the
10)1,0(~
,)(
2
2
2)(21
2
1
21
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Z = standard normal random variable
= 0 and = 1
Z0 1 2 3-1-2-3
.5.5
Standard Normal Distribution
.5.5
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Important Properties of Z
#1. The standard normal curve is symmetric around the mean 0
#2. The total area under the curve is 1;
so (from #1) the area to the left of 0 is 1/2, and the area to the right of 0 is 1/2
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Finding Normal Percentiles by Hand (cont.)
Table Z is the standard Normal table. We have to convert our data to z-scores before using the table.
The figure shows us how to find the area to the left when we have a z-score of 1.80:
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Areas Under the Z Curve: Using the Table
P(0 < Z < 1) = .8413 - .5 = .3413
0 1Z
.1587.3413
.50
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Standard normal probabilities have been calculated and are provided in table Z.
The tabulated probabilities correspondto the area between Z= - and some z0
Z = z0
P(- <Z<z0)
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Example – continued X~N(60, 8)
In this example z0 = 1.25
0.89440.8944
0.89440.89440.89440.8944= 0.8944
60 70 60( 70)
8 8
( 1.25)
XP X P
P z
P(z < 1.25)
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Examples
P(0 z 1.27) =
1.270 z
Area=.3980
.8980-.5=.3980
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P(Z .55) = A1
= 1 - A2
= 1 - .7088 = .2912
0 .55
A2
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Examples
P(-2.24 z 0) =
Area=.4875
.5 - .0125 = .4875
z-2.24 0Area=.0125
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P(z -1.85) = .0322
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Examples (cont.)
A1 A2
0 2.73z
-1.18
P(-1.18 z 2.73) = A - A1
= .9968 - .1190
= .8778
.1190
.9968
A1
A
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P(-1 ≤ Z ≤ 1) = .8413 - .1587 =.6826
vi) P(-1≤ Z ≤ 1)
.8413.1587
.6826
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Is k positive or negative?
Direction of inequality; magnitude of probability
Look up .2514 in body of table; corresponding entry is -.67
6. P(z < k) = .25146. P(z < k) = .2514
.5 .5.2514
-.67
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Examples (cont.) viii)
250 275( 250) ( )
4325
( ) ( .58) 1 .2810 .719043
P X P Z
P Z P Z
.2810
.7190
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Examples (cont.) ix)
225 275 275 375 27543 43 43
) (225 375)
( 1.16 2.33) .9901 .1230 .8671
x
ix P x
P
P z
.9901.1230
.8671
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X~N(275, 43) find k so that P(x<k)=.9846
88.367275)43(16.2
table)normal standard from(16.243275
43275
43275
43275)(9846.
k
k
kzP
kxPkxP
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P( Z < 2.16) = .9846
0 2.16 Z.1587
.4846
Area=.5
.9846
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Example
Regulate blue dye for mixing paint; machine can be set to discharge an average of ml./can of paint.
Amount discharged: N(, .4 ml). If more than 6 ml. discharged into paint can, shade of blue is unacceptable.
Determine the setting so that only 1% of the cans of paint will be unacceptable
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Solution
=amount of dye discharged into can
~N( , .4); determine so that
( 6) .01
X
X
P X
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Solution (cont.)
6 6.4 .4 .4
6.4
=amount of dye discharged into can
~N( , .4); determine so that
( 6) .01
.01 ( 6)
2.33(from standard normal table)
= 6-2.33(.4) = 5.068
x
X
X
P X
P x P P z