4 th European Industry Forum, 22 nd EU PVSEC, Milano, Sept. 5 th, 2007 – W. Hoffmann 1 “Towards...

4th European Industry Forum, 22nd EU PVSEC, Milano, Sept. 5th, 2007 – W. Hoffmann 1

“Towards maturity of the PV industry”

4th European Industry Forum

22nd EU PVSEC, Milano, September 5th, 2007

PV solar electricity market overview

Winfried Hoffmann

Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied MaterialsPresident of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), President of the German Solar Economy Association (BSW) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH

Applied Materials GmbH & Co. KG • Siemensstr. 100 • 63755 AlzenauPhone: +49 6023 92 6679 • Fax: +49 6023 92 6560email: [email protected] • www.appliedmaterials.com

Applied Material external

2

Applied Materials Overview

Revenue (Past 4 Qtrs.) – $9,868 Million

Worldwide Employees – Approx. 14,000

Worldwide Locations – 18 Countries

Vision: We apply nanomanufacturing technology™ to improve the way people live

Power$/W

Area$/m²

Solar Business Group within the Business Segment“Energy and EnvironmentalSolutions”

SunFabTM


European Photovoltaic Industry

Association

Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft (German Solar

Industry Association)

European Renewable Energy Council

600 members of the Solar Thermal

and PV Solar Electricity Industry

110 members of the PV Solar

Electricity Industry

President Director President


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Ma

rke

t S

ize

in M

Wp

Off-Grid & Consumer on-Grid

40 % p.a.

63%

18%

World PV Market Size and Application Segmentation


750750

600

3 3 3 3

150

8078

4012101274

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

tota

l in

sta

lled

PV

-po

wer

in M

Wp

annually installed PV power in MWp total installed PV power in MWp

Development of the German PV-market

1991: Electricity Feed-In ActRight of (1) of grid access(2) feed-in of solar electricity (3) refund payment at fixed prices (approx. 8.5 €ct per kWh)

2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)Solar electricity feed-in tariff of 51 €ct per kWh

2004: Amendment to EEGFeed-in tariff of 45.7 - 62.4 €ct per kWh

1991 - 1995: 1,000 Roofs

Program

1999 - 2003: 100,000 Roofs Progr.

Low-interest loansfor 300 MWp


European Market Support Programs

2006 (est.)

1

12

63

1

12

750

Feed in Laws: Switzerland (1991); Denmark (1993); Sweden (1997); Norway, Slovenia (1999); Latvia (2001); Austria, Czech Republic, Lithuania (2002); Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic (2003); Turkey, Ireland (2005)

other countries

12040 – 50Greece

51,2002036 – 49Italy

115031 – 45Portugal

Cap[MW]

Duration[a]

Tariff[€ct/kWh]

5-2030 - 40

BIPV + 15- 25

France

204002522 – 41Spain

750-2038 – 49 BIPV + 5ct

Germany

2005

Feed-in lawCountry

yearly market [MW]


Competitiveness between ElectricityGenerating Cost for PV and Utility Prices

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

€/kWh

900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh

1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh

Source: RWE Energie AG and SCHOTT Solar GmbH

market support programs necessary:

Photovoltaics

Retail prices privateand small business

Large power consumingindustries


Summer

Winter

Standard20,64

6,35

26,78

21,42

31,92

30

10

20

¥/kWh

hours1260 2418

Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005

winter

summer

$ct/kWh

hours

60

20

0

40

0 6 12 18 24

Range of Electricity Prices in California (data from Alison Hyde, BSW)


Different World PV Market Projectionsuntil 2010 (Status: 2006/2007 )

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

LBBW (PV Market ModelVersion 2.0, LBBW Research,Febr. 2007)

EPIA (Pessimistic Scenario,PV Med Athens, Apr. 2007)

EPIA (Policy driven Estimate,PV Med, Athens, Apr, 2007)

Sarasin (Report Solar Energy,Dec. 2006)

MW


Regional Development until 2011 (Annual Installations – Policy Driven

Scenario)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

year

MW

p

Rest of the World

USA

Rest of Asia

Japan

Rest of Europe

Germany32.6 %

12.5 %

7.6 %

24.7 %

16.4.%

6.7 %7567

15832162

3083

5590

4108


History

1

10

100

1 10 100 1000 10000

MWp accumulated

$/W

p m

od

ule

pri

ce

20% price decrease by doubling cumulative volume

Price Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules

0,1

1,0

10,0

1 10 100 1.000 10.000

GWp accumulated

$/W

p m

od

ule

pri

ce

experience factor

15%

18%

1.3 GWp/a2005

343 GWp/a2030

6 GWp/a2010

68,5 GWp/a2020

Forecast


100

1,000

10,000

0.1 1 10 100

Cumulative Units Sold (Millions)M

arke

t P

rice

/un

it (

1996

$)

Analog Handset Price

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

1

10

100

105 107 109 1011 1013 1015 1017 1019

‘00‘95‘90‘85‘80‘75‘70‘65

~28% reduction for doubling of total volume

DR

AM

Cen

ts/b

it

Cumulative Bits

VLSI/DRAM

Cost/Learning Curve Examples

Capit

al C

ost

$/m

2

Output - m2 (000 Omitted)

1

10

1 10 100

Capit

al C

ost

$/m

2

Output - m2 (000 Omitted)

1

10

1 10 100

FPD Cost (PECVD)

Source: Applied Materials


Scale of manufacturing / Example: TFT Display Technology Development

0

1

2

3

4

5

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

G1G3+G3

G2

G6

G5+

G7

G5

G4

Are

a [m

²]

Year

in 2005 more than500 production / R&D machines

G8


Future Growth of the Global PV SolarElectricity Market in GWp and bn€ turnover

1

10

100

1.000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

year

PV

Po

wer

inst

alle

d, G

Wp

/a

1

10

100

1.000

10.000

Mar

ket,

bill

ion

€/a

35%

10%

25%

40%

30%

5%

module levelrange depending onexperience factor (15% - 18%)20%

15%

fab-invest level (decrease: ~10% every 5 years)upper bound: c-Si, full production chainlower bound: thin film


1

10

100

1.000

10.000

100.000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

year

TW

h³

/ yea

r

1 assuming 1.4% increase per year (source: IEA WEO 2004, “World Alternative Policy Scenario”) and starting at 17.400 TWh world electricity production in 2004 (source: BMWi “Zahlen und Fakten - Energiedaten”, 2006)

2 assuming average of 1200 kWh yearly electricity production per installed kWp module power (own estimate)

3 TWh = Terrawatt-hour = 1 billion Kilowatt-hours

Total electricity production1

PV electricity

production²

1% of Total

10% of Total

World Electricity Production Forecast


Electricity generating cost

[€ct/kWh]

Eurelectric /

VGB Power Tech

Today

2005

Tomorrow

2030

Day after tomorrow

2050

Fossile (coal, gas) 4 - 4.5 6-7 6.5 - 9

Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR)

4 – 6 3.5 – 7 3.5 - 6

PV solar electricity

(south/north)20/40 5/10 3/6

= own estimates

4 th European Industry Forum, 22 nd EU PVSEC, Milano, Sept. 5 th, 2007 – W. Hoffmann 1 “Towards...

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