4 Short stories in Airports Economics€¦ · 4 Short stories in Airports Economics ... ACI Africa...
Transcript of 4 Short stories in Airports Economics€¦ · 4 Short stories in Airports Economics ... ACI Africa...
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4 Short stories in
Airports EconomicsPatrick Lucas
Head – Airport Business Analytics, ACI World
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April 18 2
ACI World
Montreal, CanadaACI North America
Washington, DC
ACI Latin America-Caribbean
Panama City, Panama
ACI Africa
Casablanca, MoroccoACI Asia-Pacific
Hong Kong
ACI Europe
Brussels,
Belgium
ACI World and Regional Offices
641 members operating 1953 airports in 176 countries;
500 World Business Partners
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April 18 3
4 short stories:
Air transport demand across the world’s airports:
Where have we been, where are we now and where are we going?
Myth #1:
Aircraft-related revenues (from airlines) make-up the lion’s share of airports’
aeronautical revenues
Myth #2:
% share of non-aeronautical revenue has grown over time relative to aero as % of total
revenue
Myth #3:
Most airports generate net profits and a positive return on invested capital
De
bu
nkin
g a
fe
w m
yth
s
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April 18 4
➢WATR: Based on +2400
airports covering ~95%
of global passenger
traffic
➢WATF: Short, medium
and long-term country
forecasts for over 90
markets up to 2040
World Airport Traffic Report
(WATR) and Forecasts (WATF)
1st story:
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April 18 5
Where have we been?
(2000–2016)
Pax: Resilience and animal spirits
Air cargo:Mode shift and cyclical recovery
Movements:Efficiency and consolidation
√
√
√
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Report, 2017
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April 18 6
Pax:
Resilience and animal spirits
Air cargo:
Mode shifts and cyclical recovery
Movements:
Efficiency and consolidation
√
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7April 18
Exogenous – Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (1997-2017)
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April 18 8
Pax: Where are we now?
+3.5%1.9 B
+4.3%612 M
+8.7%2.2 B
+5.2%388 M
+6%193 M
+8%2.9 B
World 2017
8.2 B passengers
+6.6%
Animal spirits:
LCC Market
continued rise;
Russian and
Turkish recovery
Indian and Chinese market –
fastest growing markets in the world
and major contributors
Moderating growth:
Weakest growth in years;
Qatar crisis; Travel bans
Heterogeneous growth:
Mexico red hot;
Colombia weak;
Brazil recovery;
Heterogeneous growth:
Northern recovery;
Nigerian collapse;
Ethiopia double digit
growth
√
√
Burgeoning
Pacific:
Strong growth in
international traffic
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Database, 2018
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9April 18
Over 2 years of
low prices:Helps put
downward
pressure on fares
in a competitive
environment
Jet Fuel and Crude Olil Price ($/barrel)
Endogenous variables…..
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April 18 10
“No frills” low cost
carrier business model
stimulates demand
through competitive
fare offerings
Endogenous variables…..
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11April 18Source: adapted from CNBC FactSet
Darker blue higher positive interest rates; red countries are negative
Cheap credit….
Light blue:
low interest rates
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A glimpse into the future…where are we going?
5.5
8.2
13.3
16.4
2007 2017 2027 2032
2006 2016 2040International Domestic
2016 2022 2040Advanced Emerging
A doubling of pax
traffic in less than
15 years
0.740.64
1
0.81
1.6
International to
domestic pax ratio:
Emerging market
to advanced
economy pax ratio:
Parity
Parity
Source: World Airport Traffic Forecasts, ACI World, 2017
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13April 18
Aviation’s center of gravity moves eastward
Top 10 Countries 2015-2040
Total passenger traffic: Top 10 countriesRank 2015 2016 20401 USA USA China2 China China USA3 Japan Japan India4 UK UK Indonesia5 Germany India UAE6 Brazil Spain Vietnam7 India Germany Japan8 Spain Brazil UK9 Turkey Indonesia Thailand10 France Turkey Brazil
India to become 3rd largest market
Source: World Airport Traffic Forecasts, ACI World, 2017
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April 18 14
Pax:
Resilience and animal spirits
Air cargo:
Mode shifts and cyclical recovery
Movements:Efficiency and consolidation
√
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15April 18
Concentration of air cargo traffic by city market -
top 20 (2017)
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Database, 2018
Air cargo market highly
concentrated – almost 50%
volumes handled by top 20
city markets
World
120 M tonnes
+7.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Cu
mu
lati
ve t
raff
ic c
on
cen
trati
on
as %
glo
bal vo
lum
es
Millio
ns
(m
etr
ic t
on
nes)
Cumulative air cargo traffic concentration Air cargo volumes (metric tonnes)
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April 18 16
Air cargo (metric tonnes) growth by region
2017 versus 2016
1.3%
5.4%5.0%
0.9%
2.7%2.4%
4.0%
13.6%
8.4% 8.4%
5.2%
7.2% 7.2%
7.9%
Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America-Caribbean
Middle East North America World
2016 2017
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Database, 2018
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April 18 17
Cyclical recovery in global trade and industrial production….Cyclical recovery in global trade and industrial production….
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April 18 18
• Two market forces at play:
Capacity - containerships (supply side)
micro
macroGlobal trade & industrial production (aggregate demand)
Ocean freight:
Less service at
a higher price
Demand for air
cargo services
(reliability factor)
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April 18 19
iPhone example:
• Shipped by air because of huge demand despite higher cost
• Opportunity cost of capital: cash is tied up on a containership for 30 days
Other market forces: Demand side
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April 18 20
Express delivery and the growth of e-commerce (B2C)…… Major express carriers, including UPS, DHL, and FedEx with increased competition
Fastest-growing airports handling 50,000 to 250,000 metric tonnes of air cargo (2016)
• New entrants SF Express in China and Amazon
• Vertical integration – Amazon to set up hub at
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Airport ~28% yoy
• Instead of being a client of UPS and FedEx, it will be
their competitor
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Report, 2017
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April 18 21
Pax:
Resilience and animal spirits
Air cargo:
Mode shifts and cyclical recovery
Movements:
Efficiency and consolidation√
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Evolution of monthly movements traffic in North America (2006–2016)
Market
correction
brought on by
Great
Recession
Consolidation√
Pax per air
transport
movement
on the rise
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Report, 2017
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Number of airports with >40 mppa - world (2007–2017)
Busiest become busier
2017 new airports:
Manila (MNL)
Moscow (SVO)
Tokyo (NRT)
Xi’An (XIY)
4650
37
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Database, 2018
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24April 18
Overview Airport
Economics Report
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25April 18
➢ The survey generates responses
from ~700+ airports for financial
year;
➢ These airports handle ~4.8 billion
passengers or about ~70% of
worldwide passenger traffic.
Airport Economics Report and KPIs
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26April 18
Industry Snapshot
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April 18 27
What does the typical airport look like?
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April 18 28
The typical airport on the planet is:
Main criteria:
• Size categories
• Median pax traffic
• Scheduled traffic
Sogndal Airport, Norway (SOG)
Heihe Airport, China (HEK)
Plovdiv Airport, Bulgaria (PDV)
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April 18 29
How big is the airport industry?
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April 18 30
If the Airport Industry was an economy, what country
would it be in terms of Gross Domestic Product?
A) Argentina
B) Kuwait
C) Vietnam
D) New Zealand
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April 18 31
What are industry revenues and how are they
evolving?
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April 18 32
Evolution of total Industry Revenue and Y-o-Y Growth
(2001–2016, US$)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
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April 18 33
Evolution of total revenue per passenger (2011–2016, US$)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
$17.84 $18.00 $18.01 $18.08 $17.98 $17.88
0.2%
0.9%
0.1%
0.4%
-0.5% -0.6%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year-
over-
year
% c
han
ge
To
tal re
ven
ue p
er
pa
sse
ng
er
(US
$)
Total revenue per passenger Year-over-year % change
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April 18 34
Global industry revenue by source (2016)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
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April 18 35
What is the largest component of
costs?
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April 18 36
Distribution of total costs (2016)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
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April 18 37
Distribution of total costs (2016)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2016)
Personnel expenses
35.3%
Contracted services
22.5%General and
administration expenses
7.0%
Materials, equipment,
supplies6.7%
Maintenance (excluding contracted services)
5.4%
Communications, utilities, energy
and waste3.1%
Insurance, claims, settlements
4.2%
Lease, rent, concession fee
payments1.5% Other
14.3%
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April 18 38
Distribution of capital costs (2016)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
Interest expenses,
32.8%
Depreciation and
amortization, 65.2%
Other capital costs, 2.0%
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April 18 39
Economies of scale (2016)
1
10
100
1,000
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000 100000000 1E+09
Ave
rag
e u
nit
co
st
(lo
g s
cale
)
Traffic - WLU (log scale)
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40April 18
Debunking the Myths in the
Airport Business
2nd, 3rd and 4th short story
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April 18 41
Myth #1:
Aircraft-related revenues (from airlines)
make-up the lion’s share of airports’
aeronautical revenues
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April 18 42
What is the largest component of
aeronautical revenues?
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April 18 43
Aeronautical revenues (2016)Distribution of passenger-related
revenues
Distribution of aircraft-related
revenues
Distribution of aeronautical
revenues
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
Passenger charges
(AIF* and PFC**
included)45%
Landing charges
21%
Terminal rentals***
12%
Security charges
8%
Other****14.9%
Landing charges72.3%
Parking charges
7.2%
Boarding bridge
charges4.2%
Noise and environment
al charges0.9%
Navaid charges
3.9%
Other aircraft-related charges11.6%
Passenger charges82.8%
Security charges13.9%
Transfer/transit charges
0.5%
Other passenger-
related charges
2.8%
*AIF: Airport Improvement Fee (AIF)
**PFC: Passenger Facility Charge (PFC)
***Terminal rentals are mainly limited to North America. The
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) classifies;
****Includes miscellaneous passenger-, aircraft-, cargo-related
charges and all other unidentified charges of an aeronautical
nature
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April 18 44
Ratio of aircraft-related to passenger-related revenues (2016)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
mid
34.2% 33.6% 33.3% 32.4%
10.4% 10.6% 10.6% 11.4%
55.4% 55.8% 56.1% 56.2%
2013 2014 2015 2016
Aircraft-related revenues Terminal rentals Passenger-related revenues
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April 18 45
Ratio of aircraft-related to passenger-related revenues
by region (2016)
mid
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
26.1%35.6% 34.6%
17.4% 18.9%
34.3% 32.4%
1.4%
3.1%0.1%
1.0% 0.3%
36.1%
11.4%
72.6%61.3% 65.2%
81.6% 80.8%
29.6%
56.2%
Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America-Caribbean
Middle East North America World
Aircraft-related revenues* Terminal rentals** Passenger-related revenues***
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April 18 46
Myth #1:
Aircraft-related revenues (charges to
airlines) make-up the lion’s share of
airports’ aeronautical revenues
False: Ratio Passenger-related
revenues make-up 56.2% vs. aircraft-
related / terminal revenues
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April 18 47
Myth #2:
% share of non-aeronautical revenue has grown
over time relative to aero as % of total revenue
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48April 18
Aero alone is insufficient to cover airport costs
Non-aero
Capital costs
Operating
costs
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
Aero$10.15 $8.77
$7.12
$4.78
Revenues per pax Costs per pax
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49April 18
What is the largest component of non-aeronautical
revenues?
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April 18 50
Distribution of non-aeronautical revenue
by source (2016)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
Retail concessions28.8%
Car parking 20.5%
Property and real estate revenue or rent
15.0%
Rental car concessions6.3%
Food and beverage5.1%
Utility recharges3.0%
Advertising2.2%
Fuel and oil2.0%
Aviation catering service
0.3% Other16.7%
✓
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April 18 51
• Car parking leading source in North America
Distribution of non-aeronautical revenue by source (2016)
• Retail concession leading source in rest of world (Middle East)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
**Includes car parking concessions and airport owned car parks
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52April 18
What is the performance of non-aeronautical
vs.
aeronautical revenues?
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53April 18
Conventional wisdom:
Global revenue and airport output
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54April 18
Reality: Non-aero growth is
slowing in some major markets
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April 18 55
2005-2016 Compounded annual growth rate
(inflation adjusted)
Aeronautical: 5.7%
Commercial / non-aeronautical: 4.8%
Some variability for certain
years but on the whole:
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April 18 56
Distribution of non-aeronautical revenues (2016)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
Africa2%
Asia-Pacific34%
Europe32%
Latin America-
Caribbean5%
Middle East10%
North America17%
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April 18 57
Evolution of airport revenues by source (2005-2016)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
51.5% 53.1% 52.0% 53.7% 53.8% 53.3%56.9% 56.1% 56.7% 55.5% 56.0% 55.9%
43.1% 41.7% 42.6% 41.1% 41.0% 41.5%38.5% 39.4% 38.8% 40.4% 39.8% 39.5%
5.4% 5.2% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.6%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Aeronautical revenue Non-aeronautical revenue Non-operating revenue
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April 18 58
Reasons for slight proportional decline (2016 vs. 2005)• Mature markets slowing non-aero revenue growth pulling down global figure;
• Weakened Euro-area; slowed growth in non-aeronautical;
• Intra-EU rules on duty-free shopping (no tax advantage);
• Competition from other commercial sources (online retail – Alibaba, Amazon, etc.);
• Heightened security; longer security queues vs. dwell time, security charge, etc.;
growth
time
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April 18 59
Pax traffic growth does not guarantee symmetric
revenue growth on both the aeronautical and
non-aeronautical side of the business;
Growth in traffic has fueled growth in passenger-
related revenues on the aeronautical side;
Reasons for proportional decline (2015 vs. 2005)
Pax traffic Pax-related revenues
Aeronautical side:
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April 18 60
Myth #2:
% share of non-aeronautical revenue is growing
more than aeronautical as % of total revenue
False: On annualized basis from 2005 to 2016,
non-aeronautical revenue % is lower (4.8%)
than aero (5.7%)
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April 18 61
Myth #3:
Most airports generate net profits and a
positive return on invested capital
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April 18 62
Is the airport industry profitable?
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April 18 63
Heterogeneous regulations across varied jurisdictions,
which affect costs and revenues;
Differing objectives: cost recovery vs. profit maximization
Caveats on profitability as concept:
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April 18 64
Net profit and EBITDA margins are
insufficient measures of profitability
and financial health;
Return on Invested Capital takes into
consideration the balance sheet (i.e.
the capital intensive business of
airports)
Caveats on measures of profitability:
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April 18 65
Paradox:Overall industry is in the
black yet most airports
lose money
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April 18 66
Distribution of airports with scheduled
traffic by airport size (2016)
<1m80%
1–5m13%
5–15m4%
15–25m1%
25–40m1% >40m
1%
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017) and Official Airline Guide (2017)
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April 18 67
Net profit 34% Net
loss66%
Distribution of airports with a net loss (2016)
*Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017) and Official Airline Guide (2017)
<1m92.2%
1-5m6.3%
5-15m0.9%
15-25m0.2%
25-40m0.2%
>40m0.2%
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April 18 68
Proportion of airports with net profits*
AENA
Spanish
AAI
Indian
CCAA
Chinese
Infraero
Brazilian
*Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2014); Public sources
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April 18 69
High average total fixed costs at
lower output levels – Need to
reach economies of scale
Revenues and costs per passenger (US$ 2016)
$12.70
$14.09$14.63
$16.54$16.90
$19.67
$17.50
$13.11 $12.77$13.33 $13.53
$14.17
<1m 1–5m 5–15m 15–25m 25–40m >40m
Revenues per pax Costs per pax
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April 18 70
Return on invested capital by airport size (2016)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
80% of airports
have <1m pax
(93% of them have a loss)
-2.1%
5.0%
8.9%
7.2%7.8%
8.6%
<1m 1–5m 5–15m 15–25m 25–40m >40m
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April 18 71
Return on invested capital (2016)
Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey (2017)
6.6%
10.2%
7.5%
Advanced economies Emerging and developingeconomies
World
GLOBAL WACC:
6-8%
(OPPORTUNITY
COST)
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April 18 72
Myth #3:
Most airports generate net profits and a
positive return on invested capital
False: 66% of airports globally operate at a
net loss and most of these airports have <1m
passengers
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April 18 73
1. Air transport demand continues to march to the beat of its own drum
Competition; Strengthened global economy; Favourable micro and macro factors;
2. Greater reliance on passenger-related revenues as opposed to aircraft-
related revenues
Shared risk between airlines and airports to pass on the largest proportion of aeronautical
to the ultimate end user;
3. Globally proportion of non-aero revenues is not growing faster than
aeronautical (European non-aero maturity; S-curve, pax related revenues);
Point of satiation with limitations on revenue growth depending on where you are located
on the S-curve
4. Size matters - Overall industry is in the black yet most airports lose money
Policy question: How do we finance these smaller airports?
Summary of 4 short stories:
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74April 18
Questions?