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2 nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France $1/W System Price: How Bifacial Modules will Beat the Needed Efficiency and Cost Targets Fatima Toor, Ph.D. Research Analyst Lux Research, Inc. May 26 th , 2014

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2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

$1/W System Price: How Bifacial Modules will Beat the Needed Efficiency and Cost Targets

Fatima Toor, Ph.D.

Research Analyst

Lux Research, Inc. May 26th, 2014

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2 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

Agenda

Photovoltaic (PV) Market Trends

Defining the Need for PV Innovation

Bifacial Modules as the Winning Crystalline Silicon Module Technology

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100% Overcapacity in 2012…..however 2015 will Bring Supply Constraint

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Module Supply/

Demand (MW)

Supply - Tier 1 Supply - Tier 2 Supply - Tier 3 Demand

Source: Lux Research Q4 2013 Supply Tracker

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4 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

Crystalline Silicon Will Dominate the PV Module Demand

Source: Lux Research

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Cost, Efficiency, and Price are the Fundamental Drivers of the Photovoltaic Industry

Price & Profit Margin

Incentives & Demand

Cost & Module Efficiency

Source: Lux Research

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© Lux Research 6 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

Projected Utility-scale Installation Prices Will Not Reach SunShot Targets with Today’s Technologies

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

202

1

2022

2023

202

4

2025

202

6

2027

202

8

202

9

2030

Installed system price

($/W)

CdTe mc-Si Target

$0.90/W

$0.27/W $0.13/W

Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

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© Lux Research 7 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

Incumbent Module Technologies in 2013 Are Far above Target Cost and Efficiency Needed to Reduce System Prices Below $1/W

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Module Cost ($/W)

Module Efficiency (%)

Target module efficiency and cost necessary to reach $1/W system price

Below target

Above target

CdTe

CIGS

mc-Si

c-Si

TF-Si HCPV

Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

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© Lux Research 8 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

Disruptive x-Si PV Technologies Include, (A) Bifacial Solar Cells, (B) Silver-free Solar Cell Metallization, and (C) Epitaxial Silicon Solar Cells

Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

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© Lux Research 9 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

Key Research Labs and Corporations Developing Disruptive x-Si PV Technologies

Key Innovations Champion Cell Efficiency

(%) Leading Research Groups

Large Corporations and Start-ups

Bifacial solar cells 21.3% (Front)

19.8% (Rear)

Rohatgi (Georgia Tech), Harney (ISC-Konstanz), Warta

(Fraunhofer), Yang (Jiao Tong University)

ITRI, LG Electronics, Hitachi, Panasonic, Gamma Solar, Trina

Silver-free metallization

23.5% (Electroplated copper) Glunz, (Fraunhofer), Poortmans (IMEC), Lee (Sejong University),

Lemiti (Lyon University)

SunPower, SolarWorld, First Solar/TetraSun,

Solexel, Silevo, Hyundai Heavy Industries, Total, Kaneka, Technic, Rena,

Schmid

Epitaxial Si 20.6%

Poortmans (IMEC), Minowa (Tokyo Institute of Technology), Willeke (Fraunhofer), Bergmann

(University of Stuttgart)

Solexel, Silevo, Applied Materials, Integrated

Photovoltaics, AmberWave, Crystal Solar

Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

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© Lux Research 10 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

Standard Mono-Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) Modules will be Below Target with 21% efficiency at $0.46/W in 2030

Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

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© Lux Research 11 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

Bifacial x-Si Modules will Beat the Efficiency and Cost Targets Needed for $1/W System Price

Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

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© Lux Research

2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

2x2 PV’s Technology Disruption Grid to Evaluate Future-Facing PV Technologies

Commercial Feasibility Technology Potential

• Manufactured Efficiency Potential (40%) • Materials Cost (25%) • Durability/Lifetime (25%) • Throughput Impact (10%)

• Process Maturity (40%) • Scalability (30%) • Material Similarity (20%) • Capital Cost (10%)

Vertical Axis Horizontal Axis

Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

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© Lux Research 13 2nd Bifacial PV Workshop in Chambery, France

Bifacial x-Si Modules will Lead the Way in PV Innovation

Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

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Easy to Scale and Manufacture, Bifacial x-Si Modules will enable Cheap Solar Electricity Generation

PV innovation across the value chain is necessary for

• manufacturers to differentiate products and maintain sustainable profit margins

• solar electricity to become cost competitive to coal and natural gas

x-Si bifacial modules have the potential to reach 30% efficiency at $0.36/W manufacturing costs by 2030 enabling below $1/W system price at sustainable margins (>=15%) for module manufacturers

With minor additions to the existing cell production lines a lot can be gained by manufacturing bifacial modules relative to the incumbent one-sided x-Si modules

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Thank you

Fatima Toor, Ph.D.

Research Analyst

+1 (617) 502-5318

[email protected]