4-27-15 LMSD Enrollment Study - MCPC

Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study

Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study

Prepared By The Montgomery County Planning Commission

April 27, 2015

Board of School Directors

Dr. Robin Vann Lynch - President Dr. Melissa Gilbert - Vice President

Laurie Actman Diane DiBonaventuro

Ben Driscoll Dr. Marissa Golden

Dr. Maureen O'Leary Virginia Pollard Subha Robinson

Acting Superintendent Dr. Wagner Marseille, Ed.D.

Table of Contents

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................... 1

Summary of Key Findings .............................................................................................................................. 3

School District Characteristics Population ........................................................................................................................................................ 5

Birth Patterns .................................................................................................................................................. 7

School District Enrollment........................................................................................................................... 9

Alternative School Enrollment .................................................................................................................. 11

Housing Activity Impacts of Housing on Enrollment ........................................................................................................... 15

Housing Units Built ...................................................................................................................................... 17

Housing Units Proposed ............................................................................................................................. 19

Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................................ 21

District Enrollment Projections Cohort Progression Model ........................................................................................................................ 25

Projected Enrollment Summaries ............................................................................................................. 29

Indicators of Projection Change ............................................................................................................... 33

School Profiles ............................................................................................................................................................. 37

Appendix ............................................................................................................................................................................ 50

1

LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT

Introduction School districts can only plan for their future if they have some idea of what that future will entail. The number of students that will need to be served by district facilities is the key variable that must be understood in order to make prudent decisions.

This report gives an overview of the population and housing characteristics within the Lower Merion School District (LMSD) in order to establish the conditions that have formed the most recent enrollment trends. Future enrollments will depend largely upon the following factors:

Recent and future births Housing activity Moves in and out of the school district Private, charter, home, and cyber school change

The study employs the use of a cohort progression model to account for the above factors and form projections for each grade level over the next ten years. The progression model tracks changes in grade sizes as they progress each year into the following grade. Over time, the averages of those progression rates are applied to future grade sizes.

The additional data and analysis in this report help not only explain what has happened in the past but also how it will affect the future. These important data points should be reviewed every year to determine if unanticipated activity is occurring and how that might influence the projections and actual enrollments down the line.

Three years ago, the district hired another consultant, DeJong-Healy, who also used a cohort progression model to project enrollments. Those projections for the overall district have turned out to be fairly accurate after three years. The DeJong numbers for individual buildings were less accurate, especially pertaining to some of the elementary schools.

This report is intended to improve upon the remaining projection years from the previous study by incorporating the most recent data and also utilizing detailed geographic information kept on record by the county. More specific and accurate projections for individual buildings and attendance boundaries are expected.

ENROLLMENT STUDY

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n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

Gladwyne ES

Harriton HS

Welsh Valley MS

Penn Valley ES

Lower Merion HS

Penn Wynne ES

Merion ES

Cynwyd MSCynwyd ES

Belmont Hills ES

BelmontHills

Cynwyd

Gladwyne

Merion

PennValley

PennWynne

FIGURE 1: District School Locations and Elementary School Boundary Areas

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Summary of Key Findings The Lower Merion School District is in the midst of a major growth spurt that has increased enrollment by more than one thousand students over the last five years. This report is intended to identify the most likely causes for this recent growth and then assess those causes to best determine how enrollment will be influenced over the next ten years.

Enrollment growth stems first from the overall quality, reputation, and appeal of the Lower Merion School District. This is an underlying driver of all factors contributing towards growth, but there are at least three specific factors that have driven the districts recent growth:

Students in Lower Merion and Narberth have been enrolling in private schools at an exceedingly lower rate compared to public school. Whereas about 38% of school-age children were in private school a decade ago, only about 32% attend private school today. This could be a swing of as many as 600-700 students going to public school that would not have ten years ago.

Multifamily homes, mostly rental apartments, are providing a greater number of public school children than before. The rate has almost doubled over the last eight years.

Home sales have increased and a greater rate of public school students are coming out of these homes that have sold compared to those that have left the district.

These three factors have measurably increased enrollments in the LMSD and this growth will continue since these additional students are now in the system progressing through higher grade levels. Additional growth pressure may come from over 2,000 units of new multifamily housing proposed in the district. Many of these units are not necessarily suited for families with young children, but the large number promises some impact. Also, existing

multifamily units will continue to draw even more public school children as they offer the lowest barrier to families that want to send their children to a high quality district.

The report implements these findings into three projection scenarios based on recent trends and a variety of adjustments stemming from observable changes in demographic and enrollment patterns. The scenarios result in a high, medium, and low projection, but all three options indicate considerable growth on top of what has already happened in the district. A near term reversal of recent growth is virtually impossible since new students from the last few years are now in the system, especially in the younger grade levels, and most will remain in the system through their educational life. The forces that brought them into the district may still be at work bringing more students as well. However, the projected growth will not affect all school levels and buildings the same.

The most likely projection scenario, referenced as Option 2 Medium, implements the progression model and adjusts it with increases for additional students brought on by new multifamily construction and more students coming out of existing multifamily developments. The following results are from Option 2:

Overall district enrollment will increase by 1,248 students over the next ten years, with growth at its strongest during the first five of those years. Enrollment peaks eight years out in 2022, followed by slight declines.

The elementary school level, which has grown the most in recent years, will increase for another year or two before starting to come back down. Enrollment should actually be lower than the current total at the end of the ten year study period.

The middle school level will start to pick up some of the elementary school growth as students cycle through and enrollment will

average almost 100 additional students per year for the next five years before starting to decline again over the second five year period. A total of 304 students will be added after ten years.

The high schools have been less subject to growth swings over the last ten years, but that will change. Increases in high school enrollment will rise throughout the next decade with peak gains scheduled six to eight years out. The total for the high schools will top 3,500 by 2024, an increase of 1,000 students.

These are substantial growth figures, especially for the middle and high school levels. They are supported by real data trends that are already occurring within Lower Merion. This report highlights those trends and provides the district with the expectations and understanding needed to plan ahead.

Additionally, the appeal of the district to outsiders should remain at a high level. Many people are embracing a more urban lifestyle, especially the younger generation of millennials. Lower Merion and Narberth provide walkability, proximity to employment, public transportation, and one of the shortest commutes into downtown Philadelphia. They also still maintain many suburban conveniences and advantages, including a high quality public education.

Note: All projection numbers have been rounded for the sake of simplicity in this report. The original precise numbers are kept intact within the models to maintain integrity, so the addition of rounded numbers in a given table may not exactly equal the sum as shown. However, any sum total should be

Part

School District Characteristics

5


School District Characteristics Population Birth Patterns School District Enrollment Alternative School Enrollment

Population The general population within the Lower Merion School District, which comprises Lower Merion Township and Narberth Borough, declined by 1.4% from 2000 to 2010. This reversed a similarly sized gain from the previous decade. Lower Merion and Narberth are considered built-out mature suburbs, so population changes since 1970 have generally gone down due to changes in household compositions with some redevelopment compensating for those losses.

Regional projections are calling for the population to slightly increase again through 2020. Population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau confirm that growth through 2013 has occurred close to the forecasted rate. The general trend for the immediate future is continued modest growth based on a steady changeover of some sites with denser housing development. The rate of increase should hasten

with the recent spate in apartment proposals that may add as many as 2,000 more living units to the district. However, it is important to recognize that population totals do not necessarily reflect changes in the numbers of school-age children or public school enrollment figures. While the overall population may grow within the district, other factors such as shifts in age cohorts, migration of young families, and school attendance choice within that population can have more pronounced effects on the numbers of public school children in the future.

FIGURE 2: Population of Lower Merion School District, 1980-2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except 2020 Projections (DVRPC and MCPC)

61,000

61,500

62,000

62,500

63,000

63,500

64,000

64,500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(projected)

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Age Cohorts and School Age Children

Age data from the last three decennial censuses reveal patterns in how the demographics of the Lower Merion School District have changed. The cohort that best represents school age children is the 5-17 year old group. This cohort increased dramatically during the 1990s but then remained fairly steady from 2000 to 2010 with only a slight decrease. These figures include all children, not just public school students. The younger cohort, 0-4 year olds (pre-school age), also remained at a similar level in 2010 compared to 2000. This snapshot would not

1990 2000 2010 2020(Forecasted)

Total19801990Change

19801990Percent Total

19902000Change


20002010Change


20102020Change

20102020Percent

LowerMerionSD 62,281 1,844 2.9% 62,973 692 1.1% 62,107 866 1.4% 62,905 798 1.3%MontgomeryCounty 678,111 34,740 5.4% 748,987 70,876 10.5% 799,874 50,887 6.8% 823,564 23,690 3.0%

FIGURE 3: Population Totals, 1990-2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except 2020 Forecasts (DVRPC and MCPC)

AgeCohort

1990 2000

Total19801990Change Total

19902000Change Total

20002010Change

04 3,496 893 3,207 289 3,251 44517 8,871 2,543 10,737 1,866 10,709 281824 6,385 1,480 5,491 894 5,933 4422534 7,448 678 6,639 809 5,360 1,2793544 9.892 2,351 8,599 1,293 7,448 1,1514554 7,834 453 10,028 2,194 9,195 833

75andover 5,620 849 6,298 678 5.921 377

2010

5564 6,546 1,356 6,692 146 8,899 2,2076574 6,189 355 5,282 907 5,391 109

FIGURE 4: Age Cohorts, Lower Merion School District, 1990-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

suggest major shifts in enrollment if no other factors were involved, but we know that is not the case based on the actual enrollment levels throughout the decade.

The remaining cohorts show that the population aged 45-54 years old represents a bubble where there are disproportionately more people in this age range. This age group along with the 55-64 year old group roughly account for the baby boomers and the cause for why places like the Lower Merion School District and Montgomery County are said to be home to an aging population. These people may still have

children in their households or have seen them move out in recent years. The effect is that there may be fewer children per household as these people age, but that effect will also be countered by seniors moving to other types of housing or downsizing, providing opportunities for younger families to move in.

The remaining ages in between the previously mentioned cohorts, the 25-44 year old population, declined by large numbers in 2010. These people are the most likely to have babies and their decline heralds a period of lower birth activity, which can ultimately result in fewer students enrolling for kindergarten six years later.

This shifting of age cohorts over time is usually a good place to start when considering why enrollments cycle up and down, but they are only one part of the picture when it comes to explaining and predicting what will happen with school enrollment in the Lower Merion School District.

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Birth Patterns The number of births in an area is an important component to projecting future enrollment in a school district. While some families will migrate over time, births provide a beginning indicator of the potential size of future kindergarten classes. This relationship will be detailed in the cohort progression model (p. 25-28), but it is important to note that existing birth data influences what will happen with entering students over the first five years of the projection period. Also note that annual birth totals are aligned to match the school calendar year (SeptemberAugust) in order to make the most accurate correlations to future kindergarten classes.

The trend for live births since 1998 in the Lower Merion School District is a general decrease over time. Looking at four-year increments, the average number of births has gone from 631 in 1998-2001 to

* Births during the 2014 months in the 2013-2014 school year were estimated due to state data being unreleased at the time of this report.

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health

FIGURE 5: Number of Live Births in Lower Merion School District by School Calendar Year (Sept.-Aug.)

547 from 2010-2013. Births have dropped in the 2011 and 2012 school years, but they are expected to have gone back up in 2013 based on an estimate using partial year data available.

This general decline over the last decade or more is not just relative to the LMSD. Countywide, birth totals have also fallen since 2008. Has the downturn in the economy starting with the Great Recession in 2008 driven this decline in births? Logically, it would make sense for some to defer or delay decisions to have children based on economic uncertainty in ones life. Some studies have looked at national population bases, both the United States and globally, and determined that overall fertility rates do decline with downturns in the economy. However, in the Lower Merion School District, the rate of decline since the recession has not been any faster than the years preceeding it. The countywide


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ENROLLMENT STUDY

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FIGURE 6: Number of Live Births in LMSD by School Calendar Year (Sept.-Aug.)

Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Health, U.S. Census Bureau

Birth Rates

Birth rates are a different statistic than live births. An increase or decrease in actual births could be explained by concurrent growth or decline in the population base, but birth rates average out the number of live births per 1,000 persons in an area. The statistics in Figure 9 confirm that the trend of lower birth activity is not solely caused by an overall reduction in population.

CalendarYear LMSDMontgomery

County2003 9.8 12.72004 8.9 12.32005 9.3 12.12006 9.5 12.32007 9.2 11.92008 9.4 12.12009 8.8 11.72010 9.1 11.42011 9.3 11.22012 8.6 11.02013 8.4 10.7

FIGURE 8: Birth Rates (Births Per 1,000 Popula-tion) in LMSD by Calendar Year (Jan.-Dec.)

* Births during the 2014 months in the 2013-2014 school year were estimated due to state data being unreleased at the time of this report.

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health (modified by MCPC from detailed address review of files)

SchoolYear LMSD200001 621200102 660200203 588200304 568200405 582200506 604200607 566200708 573200809 560200910 543201011 569201112 536201213 526201314* 555

pattern, and that of many other districts, appears more closely aligned to the timing of the recession. The economy can have an impact as it influences factors such as housing construction and sales activity, but it alone should not be considered the cause for declines in births in the LMSD. Therefore, future improvements in the economy may not have a strong effect on driving births upward again.

Attempting to pinpoint the causes of change in birth totals over time is difficult, but another clue comes from looking at the population of child-bearing age women. According to the Pennsylvania Department of Health, birth activity in Montgomery County is at its highest when potential mothers are between the

ages of 25-34. The population of women in that age group from the LMSD dropped from 3,400 in 2000 to 2,804 in 2010, a loss of over 17%. Figure 7 identifies age cohorts for females of child-bearing age. Interestingly, all other cohorts for females of child-bearing age also decreased across the decade.

These demographics do not give cause to suggest that the 25-34 year old female cohort will increase by 2020. However, the countywide forecasts adopted by DVRPC show that this age group is ascending in number and will continue to do so through at least 2025. New apartment construction and an increase in housing sales activity could still bring about more younger women of child bearing age into the LMSD and thus increase the chances for greater annual births, but severe changes are not anticipated.

AgeCohort 2000Females 2010Females

Age1519 2,711 2,683Age2024 2,660 2,283Age2529 1,589 1,391Age3034 1,811 1,413Age3539 2,199 1,824Age4044 2,480 2,168

FIGURE 7: Females of Child-Bearing Age in LMSD, 2000 and 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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School District Enrollment Over the last six years, district enrollment has grown by 18%, adding 1,241 students and reaching more than 8,000 total students. Looking further back, the district has been adding students on a fairly regular basis since 1989, when enrollment was only around 5,200 students. The recent growth has been somewhat unexpected in its rate of increase given the lack of an appreciable population or housing construction gain. Looking at the school level distributions in Figures 9 and 10, growth is observable at each of the three levels in the district, but it is most pronounced within the K-5 or elementary level. This study is intended to answer the question of how much growth will continue within the district, but it is clear that enrollment should continue to grow in the immediate future. The swelling early grade levels today will advance through the system and replace likely smaller class sizes that came before them.

FIGURE 9: School District Enrollment by Grade Divisions, 2005-2014

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1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

200506

200607

200708

200809

200910

201011

201112

201213

201314

201415

K5

68

912

TotalK12

Source: Lower Merion School District (enrollment as of the 10th day of each school year)


ENROLLMENT STUDY

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Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11200506 317 470 522 467 484 514 490 570 597 587 637 642200607 366 480 485 549 484 499 533 501 576 613 583 624200708 353 522 504 509 552 503 514 560 512 568 608 594200809 352 494 536 517 505 557 499 523 561 515 560 601200910 391 518 521 551 533 525 562 514 538 602 528 563201011 411 528 539 544 571 547 549 584 527 584 620 547201112 413 585 556 564 568 600 564 564 600 573 589 635201213 438 602 614 572 580 593 630 593 585 656 579 601

12602652621592606591549639

201314 449 630 616 640 585 588 603 662 601 614 677 587 607201415 454 621 658 660 660 606 610 604 660 642 610 671 597

FIGURE 11: District Enrollment by Grade, 2005-2014

YearTotalK12

NumberChangefromPreviousYear

PercentChangefromPreviousYear

200506 6,899 140 2.1%200607 6,945 46 0.7%200708 6,920 25 0.4%200809 6,812 108 1.6%200910 6,952 140 2.1%201011 7,142 190 2.7%201112 7,360 218 3.1%201213 7,682 322 4.4%201314 7,859 177 2.3%201415 8,053 194 2.5%

GradeK5 Grade68 Grade9122,774 1,657 2,4682,863 1,610 2,4722,943 1,586 2,3912,961 1,583 2,2683,039 1,614 2,2993,140 1,660 2,3423,286 1,728 2,3463,399 1,808 2,4753,508 1,866 2,4853,659 1,874 2,520

FIGURE 10: District Enrollment by Division, 2005-2014


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Alternative School Enrollment Potential alternative schooling choices include private schools, charter/cyber schools, and homeschooling. Enrollment in these schools are enumerated from several data sources and do not always have a consistent historical record. Further confusing matters is that charter and most cyber schools are also considered public schools.

Private Schools

While public school enrollment has been increasing over the last six years, the opposite appears to have occurred with private school enrollment for residents in Lower Merion and Narberth. National and district data sources both show a considerable decline for private school enrollment in recent years.

The U.S. Census Bureau and its American Community Survey (ACS) provides data on public versus private school enrollment, which is probably the most straightforward assessment of trends. However, these figures are still estimates with a margin of error and they rely upon the accuracy of individuals filling out questionnaires. Figure 12 shows the available data that can be compared from the Census and ACS.

The Census Bureau indicates that private school enrollment has gone from 38.7% of school-age children in 2000 to only 32.6% from 2011-2013. Such a decrease is a swing of approximately 700

YearPrivateSchool

StudentsPercentinPrivate

School Dataset

2000 4,174 38.7% Census2000,

2013* 3,470 32.6%ACS,3YearEsmates,

20112013

FIGURE 12: Private School Enrollment According to U.S. Census Bureau

students that could be in public school as opposed to private. However, we must also acknowledge that these Census figures are subject to a margin of error and the level of accuracy diminishes with shorter time frames and smaller geographies.

The Lower Merion School District also keeps data on residents that attend private school through its monitoring of district bus records which include public and private school students. However, the data is incomplete as it only recognizes students who


* 3 Year Estimates from the ACS are an average of 3 years worth of sampling data

SchoolYear PrivateSchoolStudents20062007 3,29620072008 3,32820082009 3,240

20092010 3,078

20102011 2,914

20112012 2,854

20122013 2,758

20132014 2,67420142015 2,719

FIGURE 13: Private School Enrollment According to LMSD Bus Records

Note: Data only recognizes private school students that opt for LMSD bus transportation. Source: Lower Merion School District Bus Records

ENROLLMENT STUDY

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are using the districts public buses. The bus data in Figure 13 goes back to the 2006-07 school year and supports a general decrease in private school students. This data shows a gradual pattern of decline, but the numbers appear to drop by a similar margin assuming that non-district transported students fell at a similar rate.

The level of change in private school students compared to the gains in public school enrollment reveals a shift that has contributed to growth in the district. However, this shift does not appear to be based on existing private school students enrolling in public school due to the economy. The districts data on incoming student transfers shows that the number of new public students in grades 2-12 coming from local private schools has gone down each of the last four years.

The more likely situation is that families moving into the district with children just starting school or not yet there are moving with the intention of enrolling in public school over private at a greater ratio than in the past. While there is no specific data to verify this notion, it seems the most reasonable explanation for the increase in the ratio of public school students to private school students within Lower Merion and Narberth.

Charter / Cyber Schools

Charter schools are still considered public in that they usually have free tuition and are funded with public dollars. However, they are independently operated and students are not considered in the district enrollment figure. According to the Lower Merion School District, there were 32 students living in the district in 2014-15 that enrolled in charter schools. Most of these were actually cyber charter schools, which are a form of home-based virtual charter schools. These types of schools are relatively new options in the area, first appearing less than ten years ago. The districts records show that there has been an average of 28 charter school students per year since 2005.

Homeschooling

The last alternative, which is not considered public schooling, is homeschooling where the parent is responsible for educating the child. District records show that there were 43 students being homeschooled within the LMSD during the 2013-2014 school year. This number has been relatively stable over the last four years, but averaged in the 30s during the middle of the 2000-2010 decade. The number of homeschooled students in Montgomery County has been relatively stable over this time period. While these levels should be monitored, the relatively low numbers still have a minimal impact on the overall enrollment in the district.

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Part

Housing Activity

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Housing Activity Impacts of Housing on Enrollment Housing Units Built Housing Units Proposed Housing Sales

Impacts of Housing on Enrollment

School Age Children by Housing Type

The average number of school age children in a residential unit depends on the type of residential unit. MCPC reviews the latest census data and compares it to county property records as part of its report titled, Characteristics of the Population in New and Existing Housing Units. The latest report, based on the 2010 Census, contains the average number of school age children in single family detached, attached (townhomes and twins), and multifamily (apartments or multiple units in a structure) housing types. The data is also analyzed in terms of new and existing units. The results of the study (Figure 14) show that a newly constructed single family detached home is over 15 times more likely to contain a school age child than multifamily units. The difference is less stark when considering all existing units, but there are clearly more children found in detached units than in multifamily units, with single family attached units falling in between the other two.

SingleFamilyDetached SingleFamilyAached MulfamilySchoolAgeChildrenperHouseholdinExisng Units 0.55 0.41 0.18SchoolAgeChildrenperHouseholdinNew Units 0.93 0.21 0.06

Montgomery County

SingleFamilyDetached SingleFamilyAached Mulfamily

SchoolAgeChildrenperHouseholdinExisng Units 0.64 0.31 0.06SchoolAgeChildrenperHouseholdinNew Units NA NA NA

Lower Merion School District

FIGURE 14: Average Number of School Aged Children by Housing Unit Type

Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission

The methodology for the report was replicated to just focus on data within the Lower Merion School District. While there were not enough new units to develop representative figures, existing units were comparable to the county regarding their disparity between housing types. Multifamily and attached units in the LMSD had fewer children per unit than the county, but detached homes had a higher rate of children per unit. These factors can be used to make estimates on the impact of different housing types in terms of school age children, but it should be noted that the study only considers census blocks of housing that are homogenous. Additional information was collected for multifamily housing since it is a concern with current projects being proposed in the district.

Multifamily Housing Analysis

The districts student records from 2006-07, 2010-11, and 2014-15 were compared to the addresses of all multifamily developments with 20 or more units in Lower Merion and Narberth. The results shown in Figure 15 indicate that the number of public school children coming from multifamily developments has been increasing. There were 0.08 public school

ENROLLMENT STUDY

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TotalPersons

PersonsAge14 PersonsAge517 PersonsAge2534

NumberPercentofTotal Number

PercentofTotal Number

PercentofTotal

Personsinhouseholdsthathavemovedwithinthelastyear 8,135 425 5.2% 922 11.3% 1,759 21.6%

Personsinhouseholdsthathaveremainedinthesamehouse 53,537 2,120 4.0% 9,999 18.7% 3,720 6.9%

FIGURE 16: Percentage of Children in LMSD Area Households Related to Geographic Mobility

Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013 Estimates

have moved within the last year. This latter group would constitute the characteristics of people who are purchasing homes or moving into rental units.

The results show that the percentage of school age children is higher in homes that are occupied by the same household as the year before. This would seem to indicate that new households will contain fewer school age children than homes that have not been sold or rented to a new household. However, what this data does not show is who has been replaced by the new household. If those new households that do have children are taking the place of a household without children, such as an empty nester or nonfamily household, then the new sale or rental can still drive enrollment higher.

PercentofHousing

withChildrenUnder18OwnerOccupiedHousing 35%RenterOccupiedHousing 20%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census

FIGURE 18: Presence of Children Within LMSD

Year LMSD Student/Unit

201011 296 0.05201415 432 0.08

200607 242 0.04Units5,3855,5145,514

FIGURE 15: Actual LMSD Data for All Existing Multifamily Developments with 20 Units or More

Note: Only includes public students and ratio is based on units, not households.

students per existing multifamily unit in the 2014-15 school year. This is still a fairly low rate, and new units typically have fewer school-age children then existing units.

This data also shows that multifamily rental units have a higher rate of public school students (0.12/unit) than owner-occupied units (0.04/unit). However, many of the children coming out of existing rental units are from older developments that may be more affordable to families seeking an opportunity to enter the LMSD. More expensive luxury apartment rentals like many being proposed may not provide as many public school students. See the Appendix for a full listing of the properties studied in this analysis and their student/unit rates.

Migration of Households

The connection between new housing units and new population is fairly clear, although it also depends on the type of units. The impact of household movement in and out of existing housing units is a less certain connection, but it is still incorporated into the cohort progression model. It would be useful to look at sales data of homes and come to an understanding of what might happen with school age children when sales activity increases for one reason or another.

The American Community Survey offers data on geographic mobility of households and the age composition of those households. Figure 16 shows a breakdown of households that have remained within the same house as the year prior and households that

Another analysis using county housing sales data and district enrollment records was conducted to identify public school students that lived in homes prior to being sold and students that lived in a home after it was sold. The results in Figure 17, show that the net gain in public students resulting from sales in a specific year has doubled from 2009 to 2013. This suggests that recent sales in the LMSD are adding new students into the district at a greater rate than sales from five years ago. This does not address rental units, but an increase in sales would likely add more students than would otherwise be expected.

Owner / Renter Occupied

Housing in the LMSD is predominately owner occupied75 percent of all occupied units. This is slightly higher than the rate of home ownership in the county as a whole. Overall, the rental market has been stronger in recent years after the recession and decline of the housing market since 2008. Almost all of the current multifamily proposals in the LMSD are designated to become rental units. Data from the 2010 Census (Figure 18) suggests that children under the age of 18 are more likely to be found in owner occupied housing than they are in renter occupied housing.

YearofHousingUnitsSold 2009NumberofUnitsSold 658

IncomingStudentsatAddressofUnitsSold 165

2013976

303

OutgoingStudentsatAddressofUnitsSold 125 222

NetChangeinStudentsfromSalesAcvity +40 +81

FIGURE 17: Impact of Housing Units Sold on Enrollment

Source: LMSD Records, MCPC Median Price Sales Reports

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Housing Units Built Residential construction activity in Montgomery County hit historic lows following the recession and housing market bubble burst in 2008. Development in the LMSD hit its lowest point in 2010 and 2011, but Lower Merion and Narberth are different from many municipalities due to their older suburban character with an increasing presence of more urban types of development. Most of the land is considered built out, so new development usually occurs on sites with demolitions or other infill sites that may not have been fully developed. Changes in the zoning codes can also spur new development such as recent rezoning activity around City Avenue in Bala Cynwyd.

Development since 2000 has generally consisted of less than 50 units per year except for when a larger multifamily development gets built, such as the Corinthian Condominiums. The types of units being built vary from year to year, but all three are fairly represented. There has been an upswing in attached

FIGURE 19: Housing Units Built in the LMSD by Housing Type, 2004-2013



homes in 2012 and 2013. This is expected to continue for the time being as some property owners have assembled groups of smaller lots, often with older detached units located on them, and proceeded to propose or build more units in order to increase the value of their property.

Figure 19 shows the last ten years of actual residential construction in the district. Future development is not considered to change drastically with regards to single family detached and attached units. However, there has been an immense level of interest in higher density multifamily construction. Over 2,000 units are currently being proposed that could see construction within the next 5-6 years. This construction will need to be considered as an influence on enrollment growth that is outside of the recent construction trends accounted for in the projection models.

The map in Figure 20 on the following page shows the most recent developments in the LMSD, recognizing all units built from 2009 through 2013.

020406080

100120140160180200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Multifamily

SingleFamilyAttached

SingleFamilyDetached

ENROLLMENT STUDY

18

n

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n

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n

n

n

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n

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Gladwyne ES

Harriton HS

Welsh Valley MS

Penn Valley ES

Lower Merion HS

Penn Wynne ES

Merion ES

Cynwyd MSCynwyd ES

Belmont Hills ES

LegendBELMONTHILLSCYNWYDGLADWYNEMERIONPENNVALLEYPENNWYNNE

MultifamilyUnits

SingleFamilyAttachedUnitsSingleFamilyDetachedUnits

TypeofHousingUnitBuilt

FIGURE 20: Housing Units Built in the LMSD, 2009-2013

19


Housing Units Proposed Lower Merion is currently looking at a remarkable number of proposed multifamily apartment buildings. The housing market has started to improve, but it is the rental market in the Philadelphia region that is currently booming. Recent zoning changes have also encouraged high density residential uses along the existing Bala Cynwyd office corridor and the Schuylkill riverfront. Some of these projects have been on the table for many years and are only now close to coming to fruition. The chart in Figure 21 shows the volume of units proposed each year over the last decade. Proposals are only counted once, but plans will often go through multiple submissions and variations as the process takes place. Not all of those units will be built, but a high percentage of them now have a strong chance of being constructed.

The map in Figure 22 shows the location and number of units for the developments that are most likely to be built in the next one to six years. Each project has been estimated in terms of its most realistic timeline

and the number of public school children they are likely to house. The number of additional public school students expected to come from these proposals has also been estimated based upon the county and local student/unit factors, including the existing multifamily development inventory located in the appendix. Approximately 108 new students are expected if all these units get built. See Figure 35 on page 34 for the detailed estimates and timelines for each proposal. Due to a lack in multifamily construction over the last five years, a housing adjustment is recommended for the projections in Part Three.

This potential construction will not affect all individual schools equally. Almost half of the new students will fall within the Cynwyd Elementary School boundary, and about a third will come into the Penn Valley Elementary School boundary. Gladwyne and Merion boundaries will receive no impact. The middle schools and high schools will be pretty evenly disbursed in terms of potential new students from these developments, although a few more will come into the Bala Cynwyd Middle School and Lower Merion High School side.

FIGURE 21: Housing Units Proposed in the LMSD, 2004-2013



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Multifamily

SingleFamilyAttached

SingleFamilyDetached

ENROLLMENT STUDY

20

n

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n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

Gladwyne ES

Harriton HS

Welsh Valley MS

Penn Valley ES

Lower Merion HS

Penn Wynne ES

Merion ES

Cynwyd MSCynwyd ES

Belmont Hills ES


335 Righters Ferry210 Units

150 Monument Rd207 Units

601 & 615 Righters Ferry237 Units

600 Righters Ferry593 Units

131-151 Rock Hill Rd332 Units

Palmer Seminary130 Units

331 Penn Rd250 Units

112 Sibley 46 Units

11-15 E. Athens Ave.25 Units

24 Cricket Ave110 Units

FIGURE 22: Proposed Housing Developments Expected to be Constructed

21


Housing Sales Market-rate housing sales activity in the LMSD has followed a pattern similar to countywide sales activity. The number of units sold peaked at very high levels in the early to mid 2000s before the housing boom crashed and the economy entered a recession. Sales levels continually declined to historically low levels through 2011. During this collapse, home values flattened out and often depreciated as financial markets tightened up for potential buyers.

The last two years have shown the beginnings of a recovery in the county with the number of home sales rising 31% from 2011 to 2013. That recovery has been even stronger in Lower Merion and Narberth with the number of sales growing by 35%

FIGURE 23: Total Housing Units Sold in the LMSD, 2004-2013

in that time. At the county and local levels, these figures still pale in comparison to earlier in the last decade, but it is unlikely that the market returns to those markers in the foreseeable future.

The impact of an increase in sales in the LMSD is that it can spur migration activity in an area that features a majority of its housing stock as owner-occupied housing. It was demonstrated on pages 15-16 that home sales in recent years have brought more public school children with them. Continual increases in sales over the near future could continue this churning of households and sustain more growth for the district.



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ENROLLMENT STUDY

22

FIGURE 24: Existing Housing Units Sold in the LMSD, 2009-2013

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

Gladwyne ES

Harriton HS

Welsh Valley MS

Penn Valley ES

Lower Merion HS

Penn Wynne ES

Merion ES

Cynwyd MSCynwyd ES

Belmont Hills ES


MultifamilyUnitsSingleFamilyAttachedUnitsSingleFamilyDetachedUnits

TypeofHousingUnitSold

23


Part

District Enrollment Projections

25


District Enrollment Projections Cohort Progression Model Projected Enrollment Summaries Indicators of Projection Change

Cohort Progression Model The method used in this study to calculate projections for each grade level is known as the Cohort Progression Model, which is also referred to as Cohort Survival in some applications. This is a fairly common approach and one used by the state and other districts in formulating projections. However, it should always be used with caution and presented in context with the other variables offered in this report. In some districts there will be cause for adjustments to the model based on changing factors in population growth or migration.

The nature of the model allows it to integrate trend activity across a number of variables. Birth rates have the most obvious impacts in the model, but the changes that take place account for trends in population migration, housing construction, sales, and alternative schooling choices, such as private, charter, or homeschooling opportunities.

The model is fairly straightforward in its method. It tracks each class in a given year and measures the change in that class from one year to the next. Then it applies an average of changes over a specified time period to determine the percentage of a given grade likely to progress to the next grade in future years. A six year average was used for the Lower Merion School District, since it would account for enrollment patterns from the 2009 through 2014 school years.

Figure 25 displays all of the progression rates for each grade transition from the last nine school years. The most recent six year average is calculated to arrive at a basic trend that will be applied for each projected year. Any progression rate that is greater than 1.0 indicates that a class increased in size from one year to the next as it also moved up a grade level. Progression rates that are lower than 1.0 indicate that a class decreased in size. For example, the eighth grade class of the 2012 school year increased in size when it entered the ninth grade in 2013 at a rate of 1.05. Using actual enrollment figures, the class went from 585 to 614 students during that period. The

following year in 2014, it entered the tenth grade and this time it decreased at a rate of 0.993, losing four students by the enrollment figures.

Progression rates between the numbered grades in the LMSD are high compared to most districts. The average for every grade level above kindergarten is above 1.0. Often, districts with a strong reputation for performance will add students at many of the early grade levels, but it may become less guaranteed as students advance. By high school, many districts see progressions below 1.0 due to dropouts and a lower likelihood of older students transitioning into a new district at this stage of school.

The six-year average progression rates for the LMSD generally do decrease through the range of grades as they get higher until the ninth grade. The rate for incoming high school freshmen classes jumps higher than any rate since the first grade. This appears to have started around the 2009 school year which was also about the time that the two high schools underwent significant renovations and expansions. However, some more historic progression rates from the previous decade also show big jumps at the ninth grade level.

The magnitude of the progression rates account for the trends outlined in this study that are driving up enrollmentspublic school preference, multifamily student ratios, increased home sales, and the essential attractiveness of the district to families from outside the district. These rates almost make growth inevitable, even if births or age cohort demographics might imply otherwise.

Birth-to-Kindergarten Ratio

The projection of future enrollments in the model requires that we apply the trends in progression rates to future classes as they go from one grade to the next. However, the kindergarten class for each year does not have an enrollment figure for its prior year since those children would be in preschool or home care outside of the district system. Therefore, we must use live birth data to identify ratios of births to

ENROLLMENT STUDY

26

SchoolYear BirthK* K1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 910 1011 1112

200910 0.687 1.472 1.055 1.028 1.031 1.040 1.009 1.030 1.029 1.073 1.025 1.005 1.008201011 0.704 1.350 1.041 1.044 1.036 1.026 1.046 1.039 1.025 1.086 1.030 1.036 1.050201112 0.684 1.423 1.053 1.046 1.044 1.051 1.031 1.027 1.027 1.087 1.009 1.024 1.004201213 0.768 1.458 1.050 1.029 1.028 1.044 1.050 1.051 1.037 1.093 1.010 1.020 1.006201314 0.778 1.438 1.023 1.042 1.023 1.014 1.017 1.051 1.013 1.050 1.032 1.014 1.010201415 0.808 1.383 1.044 1.071 1.031 1.036 1.037 1.002 0.997 1.068 0.993 0.991 1.017

6YrAvg.20092014 0.738 1.421 1.044 1.044 1.032 1.035 1.032 1.033 1.022 1.076 1.017 1.015 1.016

200607 0.589 1.514 1.032 1.052 1.036 1.031 1.037 1.022 1.011 1.027 0.993 0.980 1.016200708 0.535 1.426 1.050 1.049 1.005 1.039 1.030 1.051 1.022 0.986 0.992 1.019 0.995200809 0.599 1.399 1.027 1.026 0.992 1.009 0.992 1.018 1.002 1.006 0.986 0.988 0.997

FIGURE 25: Grade Progression Rates Over the Last Nine Years

kindergarten. The birth data comes from a given past year and is then applied to the kindergarten class that would follow six years later in order to capture the same children at each end of the ratio. For instance, a birth-to-kindergarten ratio for the 2014-15 school year uses birth data from 2008-09 as the numerator and divides it by the kindergarten enrollment in 2014 to form the rate (0.808) shown in Figure 25.

The ratios of births to kindergarten are much lower than the yearly grade progression rates. Some will go straight into a private school, and others may

* The birth-to-kindergarten ratio uses birth data six years prior to the indicated school year, thus drawing the relationship between children born and the year they would actually enter kindergarten.

move away before entry into kindergarten. The averaging out of the ratios gives us the best approximation of the net result of all birth and migration activity in the district, but clearly there is room for error in any singular instance.

One beneficial aspect of a birth-to-kindergarten ratio is that it allows the model to integrate real data into the first five years of the projection period. In other words, projections of kindergarten classes for the first five years, through the 2019 school year, can account for real changes in birth patterns that have

occurred from 2009 to 2013. The downside is that an estimated birth figure must be used for any projection beyond the 2019 school year.

Projection Periods

Due to the distinction between using real birth data and the need to estimate beyond five years, enrollment projections are divided into two periods. The primary period covers the first five school years from 2015 to 2019, and the secondary period covers the next five school years from 2020 to 2024. There is a higher degree of accuracy expected during the

SchoolYear BirthK* K1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 910 1011 11127YearAverage19942000 0.432 1.762 1.007 1.015 1.014 1.015 0.993 1.022 1.008 1.027 1.008 1.014 1.013200203 0.492 1.601 1.016 1.037 1.024 1.035 1.022 1.042 1.037 1.080 1.010 1.012 1.017200607 0.589 1.514 1.032 1.052 1.036 1.031 1.037 1.022 1.011 1.027 0.993 0.980 1.0166YrAvg.20092014 0.741 1.421 1.044 1.044 1.032 1.035 1.032 1.033 1.022 1.076 1.017 1.015 1.016

FIGURE 26: Grade Progression Rates with Historical Comparison

27


SchoolYear K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL201516 404 647 650 688 683 685 627 632 619 712 654 621 683 8,303201617 426 576 677 681 713 709 709 650 648 668 726 666 633 8,480201718 406 608 606 712 708 743 737 737 669 702 684 742 682 8,736201819 403 578 639 636 739 736 770 765 757 724 718 699 758 8,923201920 427 570 605 669 659 767 762 798 784 816 738 731 712 9,037

202021 436 602 596 633 692 684 793 789 817 844 832 751 744 9,212202122 444 613 630 623 654 717 706 820 807 879 860 846 764 9,365202223 453 625 641 658 644 678 741 731 839 869 895 874 861 9,509202324 461 636 653 670 680 668 701 767 748 903 884 910 889 9,570202425 469 647 665 682 693 705 690 725 784 805 919 899 926 9,609

Births6YearsAgo*

543569536526555

564573582591600

FIGURE 27: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 1High Projection

OPTION 2Medium Projection

Housing and Multifamily Students Adjustments are included with no further adjustments.

Estimated births for the next five years are based on an average of the last three years (539 births).

Private school attendance will remain at its current historically low percent.

OPTION 3Low Projection

Housing and Multifamily Students Adjustments are included.

Private school attendance will begin to cycle back to a higher percentage than the present, thus reducing the number of students enrolled in public school. The mechanism used to account for this change is substituting a 9-year average of progression rates instead of a 6-year average. Three additional years of older rates brings the rates down to a level closer to the period when a higher percentage of school-age children were going to public school. See Figure 30 for rates.

Estimated births for the next five years are based on an average of the last three years (539 births).

* The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred six years prior to the projected year.

primary period than in the secondary period. Recent trends are more likely to continue in the short term before outside factors can influence a change in patterns, but the use of the birth data also gives a more dependable start to projecting the size of kindergarten classes in the future.

Estimated Births

The projection of kindergarten classes after 2019 requires the use of estimated birth figures for the next five years. A simple approach to estimate these births is to use an average of the most recent birth figures and extend it through the end of the projection period.

Projected Enrollments

Figures 27, 28, and 29 offer three variations of grade by grade projections over the next ten years. They have been designated as High, Medium, and Low, simply by the level of growth that they support. Each option differs by the assumptions that are made along with designated adjustments to each model. All three options include the same housing adjustment and increase in multifamily students adjustment. The Housing Adjustment incorporates the 108 additional students over time expected from likely multifamily

housing construction. The Multifamily Students Adjustment assumes that more students will be moving into existing multifamily properties, thus raising the current 0.08 students/unit ratio to 0.1 students/unit by the end of the projection period resulting in a gain of 120 additional students over the next ten years.

Details of the three options are as follows:

OPTION 1High Projection

Housing and Multifamily Students Adjustments are included.

Increase in Housing Sales Activity - An adjustment that provides for 93 additional students over ten years to reflect an increase in housing sales to 1,100 units per year by 2017.

Increase in Estimated Births - The future births estimated for the next five years that will impact entering classes between 2020 and 2024. has been increased to progressively reach 600 births, cycling back to birth rates in line with ten years ago.

Private school attendance will remain at its current historically low percent.

ENROLLMENT STUDY

28

SchoolYear K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL201516 404 646 650 688 682 684 626 632 618 711 654 620 683 8298201617 425 575 676 680 712 708 708 649 647 667 725 665 632 8468201718 405 606 604 710 706 741 735 736 667 700 682 740 680 8713201819 401 575 637 634 736 734 768 763 755 721 715 696 756 8891201920 424 566 602 665 656 764 758 795 781 813 735 728 709 8994

202021 413 598 592 629 688 679 789 785 813 840 828 747 740 9141202122 414 582 625 618 650 712 702 815 802 875 855 841 759 9251202223 415 583 608 652 639 673 735 725 834 863 890 869 855 9341202324 416 584 609 635 674 661 694 760 742 897 878 904 883 9338202425 417 585 610 636 656 698 683 718 777 798 912 892 919 9301

Births6YearsAgo*

543569536526555

539539539539539

SchoolYear K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL201516 373 650 648 688 678 682 624 631 616 696 648 616 680 8,231201617 393 535 679 678 707 701 703 646 644 650 703 656 625 8,320201718 375 565 561 712 699 734 725 730 662 682 660 714 667 8,486201819 371 536 592 589 734 725 757 752 747 700 691 669 725 8,589201920 393 528 560 618 605 759 746 783 767 787 707 699 678 8,631

202021 383 558 551 584 635 626 781 771 798 808 795 714 708 8,712202122 384 543 581 575 600 656 643 806 786 841 815 802 723 8,756202223 385 544 566 607 590 620 674 665 822 828 848 823 812 8,783202324 386 545 567 590 622 609 637 697 677 865 835 856 833 8,721202425 387 546 568 591 606 643 627 658 710 713 873 843 867 8,631

Births6YearsAgo*

543569536526555

539539539539539

FIGURE 29: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 3Low Projection

FIGURE 28: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 2Medium Projection

* The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred six years prior to the projected year. The average birth-to-kindergarten ratio is then applied to get the projected kindergarten class.

SchoolYear BirthK K1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 910 1011 11129YrAvg.20062014 0.685 1.429 1.042 1.043 1.025 1.032 1.028 1.032 1.018 1.053 1.008 1.009 1.011

FIGURE 30: 9-Year Average Progression Rates Used for OPTION 3Low Projection

29


Projected Enrollment Summaries The summarized enrollment projections for the district and at each school level are presented on the following pages. The three options are based on differing adjustments and assumptions reviewed in the previous section. However, the variation in birth estimates will make no difference at the middle school and high school levels since children born over the next five years will not be old enough to influence those projections within the ten year timeframe.

Option 2, the medium projection, is recommended as the most realistic or likely result at this time. It adjusts for the two factors that are believed to be likely regardless of other trendsnew housing construction and more students filling existing rental apartments. Other factors are left to recent trends under Option 2.

FIGURE 31: Total District Enrollment Projections

Year

Opon1High Opon2Medium Opon3Low Total

StudentsAnnualChange

TotalStudents

AnnualChange

TotalStudents

AnnualChange

201415(Current) 8,053 8,053 8,053 201516 8,303 250 8,298 245 8,231 178201617 8,480 177 8,468 170 8,320 89201718 8,736 256 8,713 245 8,486 166201819 8,923 187 8,891 178 8,589 103201920 9,037 114 8,994 103 8,631 42

202021 9,212 175 9,141 147 8,712 81202122 9,365 153 9,251 110 8,756 44202223 9,509 144 9,341 90 8,783 27202324 9,570 61 9,338 3 8,721 62202425 9,609 39 9,301 37 8,631 90TotalChange20142024 1,556 1,248 578


The general trend for the district under all scenarios is that enrollment will continue to grow most rapidly over the next five to six years. Beyond that, the medium and low options show growth winding down and enrollment going back down the last couple of years.

Figures 32, 33, and 34 isolate the projections according to the grade levels of buildings in the district. Changes have also been evaluated over the five-year intervals of the primary and secondary periods. Some of the levels will experience very different trends from one five-year period to the next.

ENROLLMENT STUDY

30

Year



TotalStudents

AnnualChange

TotalStudents

AnnualChange

201415(Current) 3,659 3,659 3,659

201516 3,756 97 3,754 95 3,719 60

201617 3,781 25 3,775 21 3,692 27201718 3,783 2 3,772 3 3,646 46

201819 3,732 51 3,717 55 3,547 99

201920 3,696 36 3,677 40 3,463 84

5Yr.Changefrom201415to201920 37 18 196

202021 3,642 54 3,600 77 3,337 126

202122 3,682 40 3,602 2 3,339 2

202223 3,699 17 3,571 31 3,311 28

202324 3,768 69 3,580 9 3,320 9

202425 3,860 92 3,602 22 3,340 205Yr.Changefrom201920to202425 164 75 123

10 Yr. Change Since 201415 201 57 319

FIGURE 32: Grades K-5 Elementary School Enrollment Projections

Elementary Schools The elementary school level has been the fastest growing section in the last five years, increasing by 519 students or over 16% during that time. The increases were not driven by any increase in birth activity, but rather the ratio of students entering the district in kindergarten or first grade did rise during that time. As discussed, more preschool children going into public school instead of private along with new students from existing multifamily homes and more home sales helped to drive that ratio up.

Each of the projection options suggest that growth will continue at the elementary school level for at

least another year, but it will then come down again. The long term projections show an overall decrease after ten years under the medium and low options. The projected declines come after some of the large gains in recent grade classes move through the system and enter middle school while smaller classes replace them.

The high enrollment projection assumes that birth activity goes up and this will start to bring growth back to the smallest grades during the secondary period after 2020.

31


Year

Opon1High Opon2MediumTotal


TotalStudents

AnnualChange

TotalStudents

AnnualChange

201415(Current) 1,874 1,874 1,874

201516 1,877 3 1,876 2 1,871 3

201617 2,006 129 2,004 128 1,993 122201718 2,143 137 2,138 134 2,117 124

201819 2,293 150 2,285 147 2,256 139

201920 2,344 51 2,334 49 2,297 41

5Yr.Changefrom201415to201920 470 460 423

202021 2,398 54 2,386 52 2,351 54

202122 2,334 64 2,319 67 2,236 115

202223 2,311 23 2,294 25 2,161 75

202324 2,215 96 2,196 98 2,011 150

202425 2,199 16 2,178 18 1,995 165Yr.Changefrom201920to202425 145 156 302

10 Yr. Change Since 201415 325 304 121

Opon3Low

FIGURE 33: Grades 6-8 Middle School Enrollment Projections

Middle Schools The middle school level has also grown over the last five years, adding 217 students or 13% in that time, but not quite as much as the elementary schools. These grade levels are poised for even higher growth over the next 3-4 years as the larger elementary classes move into middle school. However, this growth is not expected to continue much beyond the primary period. All three projection scenarios are consistent with the notion that these grade levels will decline starting with the 2021 school year. Adjustments to the estimates of future births will not affect enrollment at the Middle School since those children will not have reached the sixth grade prior to 2025.

ENROLLMENT STUDY

32

FIGURE 34: Grades 9-12 High School Enrollment Projections

Year

Opon1High Opon2MediumTotal


TotalStudents

AnnualChange

TotalStudents AnnualChange

201415(Current) 2,520 2,520 2,520

201516 2,670 150 2,668 148 2,640 120

201617 2,693 23 2,689 21 2,634 6201718 2,810 117 2,803 114 2,723 89

201819 2,898 88 2,888 85 2,786 63

201920 2,997 99 2,984 96 2,871 85

5Yr.Changefrom201415to201920 477 464 351

202021 3,171 174 3,155 171 3,025 154

202122 3,349 178 3,330 175 3,182 157

202223 3,499 150 3,477 147 3,311 129

202324 3,587 88 3,562 85 3,390 79

202425 3,550 37 3,521 41 3,296 945Yr.Changefrom201920to202425 553 537 425

10 Yr. Change Since 201415 1,030 1,001 776

Opon3Low

High Schools Enrollment at the high school level has also grown over the last five years, but at a much slower rate than in the elementary and middle school levels. Only 178 students were added in that time frame, which was a gain of under 8%. Going back further shows that the high school level was actually declining for the five years prior. Over the course of the decade, the net change was only a gain of 52 students. This will not be the case going forward. All three options show a period of major growth in the years ahead driven by increased class sizes already in the public school system. Adjustments made for housing construction, more multifamily home students, and potential increases in sales will also boost growth. Even the low option, which is based on an

increase in more students going to private school, shows substantial growth since there are already students in the system driving the increases.

33


Indicators of Projection Change No further adjustments to the projections on the preceding pages are necessary at this time. The background data and analysis throughout this report forms a basis and understanding of how the numbers should be interpreted. However, markets and trends can always change in unexpected manners. This section provides a further understanding of the assumptions inherent with the progression model and potential warning signs that would prompt a future reconsideration of the projected enrollment figures. Any district should continually monitor the data in this report to keep apprised of how trends are developing. A district as actively growing as the LMSD should also plan on formal studies of enrollment projections at least every three to four years.

Housing Construction

All three projection options in this study incorporate the same adjustment for new multifamily unit construction that is expected over the next six years. The adjustments were not altered for each option because they represent our best understanding of currently proposed projects and there is no cause to alter them unless the prospects of a proposal change in the future. Of course, all proposals are subject to sudden changes in outlook due to the marketplace, local government concerns, financial issues, or other reasons.

Figure 35 provides the data that was used to make the housing adjustments in the cohort progression models. The factor used to determine the number of public school students for most of the projects was 0.04 students per unit. This factor was based on analysis of countywide figures for new multifamily construction, which includes all school-age children both public and private, and actual data for existing multifamily developments within the LMSD. Two of the projects were calculated with a larger factor of 0.12 based on their character and similar developments within the LMSD. These factors are


estimates intended to reflect the overall impact from the developments. One project may ultimately result in more or less students, but the total for all developments are expected to average out in the end. Of course, if a project falls through or follows a different timeline, those students attributed to that project would not make an impact as scheduled.

The number of students added as an adjustment are maintained throughout the ten year study period once they enter the system, but they are added outside of the progression rates so as not to compound the influence of new construction.

Birth Patterns

Birth numbers are directly integrated into the cohort progression model and the number of births can significantly affect future projections, but any changes today will not be felt for at least six years in terms of the projections. The high projection model, Option 1, uses higher birth estimates than the medium and low models. Annual birth data should be tracked to anticipate if one option may become more likely during the secondary period. Live birth data is available from the Pennsylvania Department of Health, but the numbers should be correlated to the school year rather than the calendar year.

Alternative School Enrollment

Private school choice has been demonstrated to have a significant impact on recent growth in the public schools. The high and medium projection models assume that the lower rate of private school attendance is a reality that will continue into the foreseeable future. The trend in more public students stems from more people moving into the district for its public school system as opposed to people moving back and forth between public and private school for economic or other reasons once they are already here. However, the low projection model does show what could happen if the trend is short-lived and students return to private school in greater numbers. The American Community Survey provides delayed data on private schools averaged out over multiple years,

ENROLLMENT STUDY

34

Project TotalUnits

SchoolAgeChildreninPublicSchool

YearsAddedtoPublicSchoolacross

Grades

131151RockHillRoad 33276

201718201819

600RightersFerry 593

6126

201617201718201819

335RightersFerry 21044

201718201819

150MonumentRoad 20744

201819201920

601&615RightersFerry 23755

201920202021

331PennRoad* 2501515

201718201819

112Sibley 46 2 2016171115E.AthensAvenue* 25 3 201516

PalmerSeminary 13033

201617201718

24CricketAvenue 110 4 201718

ESSchoolArea

BelmontHills

Cynwyd

Cynwyd

Cynwyd

Cynwyd

PennValleyPennValleyPennValley

PennWynnePennWynne

so the districts record of private school students using district buses is going to provide more immediate information on any change in enrollment trends.

Charter school and homeschooling impacts are much less substantial compared to private school, but these counts should also be monitored in case there are any unsuspected trends that would affect public school choices.

Housing Sales Activity

The number of market-rate housing sales transactions in the LMSD has increased over the last two years and brought more gains in public school students as a result. Regionally, the housing market overall is improving, but still going through fits and starts. If sales do increase further in the district, more churning of households is expected with net gains in public school students. The high projection model accommodates the growth of 93 additional students

FIGURE 35: Factors Used for Housing Adjustment Model Calculations based on housing sales reaching 1,100 units per year by 2017. The recommendation of this study is that sales are more likely to remain stable at or slightly above 1,000 units, in which case an adjustment is not needed. The Planning Commission publishes annual sales totals for each municipality in its Median Prices for Housing report released in May.

Multifamily Student Ratio

Another adjustment made to all three projection models was to acknowledge a continuing increase in the number of public school students coming out of existing multifamily developments, especially apartment rentals. While the ratios of students per unit are not large, they are increasing. The adjustment considers an increase of 0.08 to 0.1 in the number of students per unit. This number can be monitored each year by comparing student address records to the addresses of multifamily developments as listed in the Multifamily Inventory found in the appendix of this study. The adjustment recognizes an additional 120 students from this trend, but if the ratio proves to go higher an additional adjustment would be needed.

* These projects were calculated with a factor of 0.12 students per unit. All other projects were calculated with a factor of 0.04 students per unit.

35


Part

School Profiles

37


Introduction Application of the Cohort Progression Model to individual school buildings is usually problematic and not recommended. There are concerns regarding the reduction in size of the student pool being measured, but the main problem is a lack of birth data below the municipal level. This problem was overcome in the LMSD with acquisition of birth data down to the census block group level. This allowed for a good determination of births within each elementary school boundary going back to 2003.

Much of the county data used in the housing activity analyses is spatially recorded using GIS, so that it may also be broken down at the school boundary level. Adjustments included in the districtwide models have been distributed across the individual school levels and grades based on the actual data related to each area.

It is fortunate to be able to develop models at the building level, but confidence in the results at the districtwide level should be higher than individual building results. Therefore, these building

School Profiles Introduction Belmont Hills Elementary School Cynwyd Elementary School Gladwyne Elementary School Merion Elementary School Penn Valley Elementary School Penn Wynne Elementary School Bala Cynwyd Middle School Welsh Valley Middle School Harriton High School Lower Merion High School

projections were adjusted by a single factor each year to conform to the overall district totals in the models from Part 3. The adjustments needed were minimal, changing the final totals by only a few students from what their unadjusted model would have indicated.

Elementary school projections have been limited to five years due to the uncertainty with future births and the smaller student pool, although assessments of how the model would play out to ten years are included in the narrative. Middle school and high school projections are detailed out to ten years since they are drawing from a previous grade that can be more strongly estimated as opposed to birth rates six years earlier.

Building projections under the Option 3 Low Model were made using modified 6 year average progression rates rather than the 9 year average used at the district level due to a lack of some data at the individual building level beyond 6 years. The modified rates reflected the overall difference between the 6 and 9 year averages seen at the district level.

ENROLLMENT STUDY

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Year BelmontHillsES CynwydES GladwyneES MerionES PennValleyES PennWynneES

201415(Actual) 468 543 738 568 660 682

201516 472 542 735 600 700 704

201617 474 550 740 605 694 713

201718 487 543 714 602 706 720

201819 485 529 715 599 685 704

201920 475 526 722 603 651 700

TotalChange20142019 7 17 16 35 9 18

Year BalaCynwydMS WelshValleyMS

201415(Actual) 901 973

201516 884 992

201617 916 1,087

201718 996 1,141

201819 1,082 1,204

201920 1,108 1,226

202021 1,149 1,237

202122 1,101 1,218

202223 1,103 1,191

202324 1,042 1,155

202425 1,044 1,134

TotalChange2014 143 161

Year HarritonHS LowerMerionHS

201415(Actual) 1,170 1,350

201516 1,223 1,445

201617 1,239 1,450

201718 1,309 1,494

201819 1,368 1,520 201920 1,439 1,545

202021 1,529 1,627

202122 1,596 1,734

202223 1,675 1,802

202324 1,670 1,892 202425 1,667 1,854

TotalChange2014 497 504

FIGURE 36: Summary of Projected Enrollments Under Option 2 for Elementary Schools

FIGURE 37: Summary of Projected Enrollments Under Option 2 for Middle Schools

FIGURE 38: Summary of Projected Enrollments Under Option 2 for High Schools

39


Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change200910 63 72 74 78 77 78 442 0201011 61 82 76 81 78 83 461 19201112 40 89 85 79 78 80 451 10201213 52 64 87 83 79 87 452 1201314 63 81 74 92 79 80 469 17201415 54 89 82 71 94 78 468 1

FIGURE 39: Belmont Hills Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014

Source: Lower Merion School District

FIGURE 43: Housing Activity in Belmont Hills ES


Belmont Hills Elementary School

Growth in the Belmont Hills area has been moderate, gaining 26 students since 2009. The medium projection indicates that no major shifts are expected in the next five years. Approximately 13 new students will be added from the 131-151 Rock Hill Road project in a few years (at all grade levels, including middle and high school). The bump in

births that occurred in 2010-11will provide additional students beginning in 2016-17, but the departure of the large 2014-15 fourth grade class in 2016-17 will balance out many of those additions.

This area will continue to experience low levels of new construction outside of the Rock Hill Road project. If that project is successful, more

multifamily unis could come into the Rock Hill Road corridor in the future.

Major enrollment changes are not expected for this area over the next ten years.

YearNewUnits

BuiltExisngUnitsSold

%ofTotalHousingUnits

2009 1 90 2.4%2010 2 107 2.8%2011 5 102 2.7%2012 2 132 3.4%2013 3 139 3.6%Total 13 570 14.9%

SchoolYear Births200304 78200405 70200506 67200607 66200708 71200809 83200910 64201011 91201112 58201213* 68201314* 72

FIGURE 42: Number of Live Births in Belmont Hills ES

* 2012 and 2013 school year births are esti-mates based on a 3 year average and adjusted to match county totals.

Source: MCPC and PA Dept. of Health

Year



TotalStudents

AnnualChange

TotalStudents

AnnualChange

201415(Current) 468 468 468

201516 473 5 472 4 468 0201617 475 2 474 2 462 6201718 489 14 487 13 470 8201819 488 1 485 2 462 8201920 478 10 475 10 446 16

TotalChange20142019 10 7 22

FIGURE 41: Belmont Hills ES Enrollment Projections

SchoolYear BirthK K1 12 23 34 456YrAvg.20092014 0.767 1.462 1.042 1.019 0.987 1.043

FIGURE 40: Grade Progression Rates for Belmont Hills ES

ENROLLMENT STUDY

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FIGURE 44: Cynwyd Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014


FIGURE 48: Housing Activity in Cynwyd ES


Cynwyd Elementary School

Cynwyd Elementary School has had a couple growth spurts in 2010-11 and 2014-15 resulting in a net gain of 64 students since 2009. However, enrollment is expected to decline in the next five years. Birth activity is down from ten years ago, which will bring smaller kindergarten and first grade classes than what the area has seen in recent years.

This projected decline is in spite of the amount of new multifamily units expected in the next five years. Over 1,200 new units are possible under four proposed developments, but these projects are mid-rise luxury apartments located along the waterfront and near City Avenue. They will not have strong family appeal, but the model adjusts for 54 potential students (at all grade levels, including middle and high school) through 2020.

The long term projection out to ten years suggests that enrollment will stay down closer to 500 students unless birth activity increases.

YearNewUnits



2009 9 77 2.5%2010 0 77 2.5%2011 2 99 3.2%2012 2 113 3.6%2013 1 152 4.9%Total 14 518 16.6%

FIGURE 47: Number of Live Births in Cynwyd ES




FIGURE 46: Cynwyd ES Enrollment Projections

Year



TotalStudents

AnnualChange

TotalStudents

AnnualChange

201415(Current) 543 543 543

201516 542 1 542 1 537 6201617 551 9 550 8 539 2201718 545 6 543 7 526 13201819 531 14 529 14 506 20201920 529 2 526 3 497 9

TotalChange20142019 14 17 46


FIGURE 45: Grade Progression Rates for Cynwyd ES

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FIGURE 49: Gladwyne Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014


FIGURE 53: Housing Activity in Gladwyne ES


Gladwyne Elementary School

The Gladwyne Elementary School has grown at a fairly drastic rate since 2009, gaining 179 students in that time. The progression rates are very high for each grade level over the last six years indicating more students migrating into the school beyond kindergarten and first grade. Home sales have gone up considerably and this area has had more

construction of single-family detached and attached units than other areas, which also can bring new students. The shift in fewer students going to private school could be having a bigger effect in this area as well.

All of the projection models call for an immediate end to this growth. Support for this is found in the lower birth rates the last few years and an

observation of current class sizes. The 3rd-5th grades are very high while the younger grades are lower in comparison. As the older classes proceed to middle school, they will be replaced by smaller classes bringing enrollment back down.

The long term projections under Option 2 indicate that enrollment should stay down below 700 students through 2024.

YearNewUnits



2009 17 150 2.2%2010 19 196 2.9%2011 19 182 2.7%2012 35 241 3.6%2013 25 259 3.8%Total 115 1028 15.3%

FIGURE 52: Number of Live Births in Gladwyne ES




FIGURE 51: Gladwyne ES Enrollment Projections

Year



TotalStudents

AnnualChange

TotalStudents

AnnualChange

201415(Current) 738 738 738

201516 736 2 735 3 729 9201617 741 5 740 5 724 5201718 715 26 714 26 690 34201819 717 2 715 1 682 8201920 725 8 722 7 680 2

TotalChange20142019 13 16 58


FIGURE 50: Grade Progression Rates for Gladwyne ES

ENROLLMENT STUDY

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FIGURE 54: Merion Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014


FIGURE 58: Housing Activity in Merion ES


Merion Elementary School

The Merion Elementary School has grown by 78 students since 2009 with some inconsistent jumps in enrollment. The projections show that the school is in for another substantial increase in 2015-16, but will remain stable following next year. The growth in 2015 is coming from the departure of an undersized 5th grade class in 2014-15.

Birth activity has been fairly consistent since 2005 and this area has seen lower sales activity than some other school areas. Very little home construction is occurring and no major proposals are being considered. These trends all support the stability of enrollment at Merion shown in the medium projection. Over the long term, enrollment should hover just under 600 students under Option 2.

YearNewUnits



4-27-15 LMSD Enrollment Study - MCPC

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