3Q20 BoP; BBCA, CTRA, PGAS, Market Recap, Covid-19 Update · 2020. 11. 23. · This report is...

This report is intended exclusively for [email protected]. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

of 15 Please see important disclosure at the back of this report

Latest 2020F

7-DRRR (%), eop 3.75 3.75

Inflation (YoY %) 1.44 2.00

US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 14,201 14,745

JCI Index 5,571.7 -0.40%

Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 10,219.7

Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 6,473.7

2020F 2021F

P/E (x) 21.8 15.9

P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 14.6 12.4

Div. Yield (%) 2.9 2.4

Net Gearing (%) 25.1 22.7

ROE (%) 10.4 13.6

EPS Growth (%) -25.1 37.2

EBITDA Growth (%) -11.7 17.1

Earnings Yield (%) 4.6 6.3

* Aggregate of 77 companies in MS research universe,

representing 63.7%of JCI’s market capitalization

Economic Data

Stock Market Data (20 November 2020)

Market Data Summary*

• 3Q20 BoP: A Temporary CA Surplus • Bank BCA: Earnings and TP Upgrades (BBCA; Rp33,000; Neutral; TP: Rp35,000) • Ciputra Development: 3Q20 Below Expectations but Expecting a Strong 4Q20 (CTRA;

Rp895; Buy; TP: Rp1,120) • Perusahaan Gas Negara: Operational Data in Oct-20 (PGAS; Rp1,405; Buy; TP:

Rp1,700) • Market Recap November 20th 2020; JCI 5,571.66 Points -22.40 pts (-0.40%); Valued

$703mn; Mkt Cap $439bn; USD/IDR 14,201 • Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 22 Nov’20 3Q20 BoP: A Temporary CA Surplus

Another BoP surplus. The balance of payment (BoP) recorded a lower surplus at USD 2.1bn in 3Q20 (vs. USD 9.2bn in 2Q20). The current account (CA) balance posted the first surplus since 2011, however the financial account (FA) fell significantly amid portfolio outflows. All in all, the 3Q20 figure brought the 9M20 BoP surplus to USD 2.8bn (vs. USD 0.4bn in 9M19).

A historical CA surplus. Aligned with our estimation, the current account balance registered a surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 3Q20 (vs. -1.2% in 2Q20) as the trade surplus enlarged to USD 9.8bn from USD 4.0bn in the same period. Import declined by -26.6% YoY due to the subdued domestic demand, particularly in investment. Meanwhile, the export contraction narrowed to -6.5% YoY owing to higher iron and steel exports, followed by upbeat commodity prices (mainly CPO).

Falling FA surplus. The financial account surplus shrunk to USD 1.0bn in 3Q20 from USD 10.6bn in 2Q20. The portfolio account recorded a deficit of –USD 1.9bn as a result of smaller government bond inflows, at only USD 0.5bn (vs. USD 6.8bn in 2Q20). The net direct investment also decreased to USD 1.1bn from USD 3.9bn in the corresponding period. Interestingly, besides the lower FDI, a local entity’s acquisition over a foreign company was the other reason for the narrowing net direct investment surplus.

Our view: more solid financial account support with wider CAD going forward. Overall, if this year’s stable exchange rate has been supported by the benign current account deficit, we think 2021’s rupiah stability will be more supported by the financial account side. Portfolio flow are expected to be more sustained on the back of easing geopolitical uncertainty post the US election, better COVID condition amid vaccine development, and Indonesia’s still wide interest rate differential. Moreover, as the debt monetization will be a one-off event, the proportion of the global bond issuance could reach 15–20% of the total government bond target next year, in our view, or amounting to USD 14bn–20bn (vs. USD 10bn in 10M20). The timing to issue global bonds could not get any better, as the global liquidity will remain ample, sourced from top

HIGHLIGHT

Equity Research | 23 November 2020 INVESTOR DIGEST

ECONOMY


Equity Research | 23 November 2020


central banks’ QE (USD 21.8tn in 10M20), followed by the low global rate environment. Afterward, the exchange rate will also be driven by the higher FDI in 2H21 partly due to the clarity on the implementating regulations for omnibus law.

On the flip side, the current account balance will likely return to deficit territory starting 4Q20. In the short term, the import could increase as a consequence of vaccine-related products. We think a more sustained import trend will start to pickup in 2Q21, aligned with the economic recovery cycle. Therefore, we reiterate our view that the CAD could reach slightly below -1.5% of GDP in FY 2020 and between -2.0 and -2.5% next year.

SUMMARY FOR BALANCE OF PAYMENT US$ mn 2018 3Q19 4Q19 2019 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 Current account (30,633) (7,504) (8,077) (30,359) (3,691) (2,944) 964 Goods (228) 1,362 306 3,508 4,445 3,958 9,795 General merchandises (219) 685 (33) 1,647 3,131 2,473 8,730 Non-oil & gas 11,186 2,744 3,203 11,965 5,809 3,289 9,443 Oil & gas (11,405) (2,060) (3,237) (10,319) (2,678) (816) (713) Other merchandises (9) 678 339 1,861 1,314 1,485 1,065 Services (6,485) (2,269) (2,032) (7,721) (1,894) (2,169) (2,618) Primary income (30,815) (8,423) (8,324) (33,775) (7,933) (6,173) (7,585) Secondary income 6,895 1,826 1,974 7,629 1,692 1,440 1,373 Capital account 97 13 20 39 1 6 7 Financial account 25,122 7,449 12,479 36,614 (3,069) 10,626 1,035 Direct investment 12,511 5,220 3,109 20,053 4,034 3,858 1,081 Asset (6,399) (615) (1,415) (4,462) (672) (706) (2,778) Liabilities 18,910 5,835 4,524 24,516 4,705 4,563 3,859 Portfolio investment 9,312 4,600 7,278 21,990 (6,090) 9,775 (1,894) Asset (5,171) (44) 332 410 (77) (181) (212) Liabilities 14,483 4,644 6,946 21,581 (6,013) 9,956 (1,683) Financial derivative 34 86 9 186 (326) 125 18 Other investment 3,266 (2,456) 2,082 (5,616) (687) (3,132) 1,831 Asset (8,233) (3,295) 271 (11,803) (4,490) (1,081) 633 Liabilities 11,499 838 1,812 6,188 3,804 (2,050) 1,198 Total (5,414) (41) 4,423 6,294 (6,759) 7,687 2,006 Net error & omission (1,717) (4) (144) (1,618) (1,786) 1,558 46 Overall balance (7,131) (46) 4,279 4,676 (8,545) 9,245 2,053

Forex reserve position 120,654 124,332 129,183 129,183 120,969 131,718 135,153 In months of imports 6.4 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.0 8.1 9.1 Current account (% of GDP) (2.94) (2.61) (2.83) (2.71) (1.34) (1.20) 0.36

Source: CEIC, Bank Indonesia Leo Rinaldy(+6221 5296 9406) [email protected] Imanuel Reinaldo(+6221 5296 9651) [email protected]

Bank BCA: Earnings and TP Upgrades (BBCA; Rp33,000; Neutral; TP: Rp35,000)

With high liquidity and the lowest restructured loans, we expect BCA can perform well with more stable margins than in other big banks. We upgrade our earnings by 21% for 2020 and 9% for 2021. We also revise up our TP to Rp35,000 (4.3x P/BV 2021), but given the share price performance, we keep our Neutral call.

Funds keep coming in, lowering CoF. BCA has never had a problem with funding, which are still coming to the big banks during the pandemic. With total deposits growth of 14% YoY/+11% YTD, LDR stood at 74% as of Sep-20, the lowest since Sep-13, and net excess funds at 30% of total assets, the highest as far back as we can track.

Small loan growth in 2020. With total loans growing a mere 1% YoY/-2% YTD in Sep-20, we project a +1% loan growth for 2020. This means there will be around 3% of additional loans in 4Q20 to come from corporate and mortgages. With the economic growth of 4-5% next year, we expect a 6% loan growth for 2021, with pent up loan demand from consumer and SME segments.

BCA has the lowest restructured loans among large banks. Its restructured loans stood at 15.9% (bank only) as of Sep-20, the lowest among peers, which range from 20% to 28%. Its NPL level at 1.9% is also the lowest, so was the loan at risk

CORPORATE




at 18.5%. As the expected restructured loans will reach 18-20% of total loans, we forecast a cost of credit of 2.2% for 2020 and 1.1% for 2021, with the coverage ratio reaching 230% and 240% for 2020 and 2021, respectively.

BCA has the most stable margin among the banks. While margins in other large banks have been largely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, NIM in BCA has been the least affected, declining by 72 bps from the past one-year peak to 5.81% in 3Q20. We expect NIM to rebound to 6.18% for 2020 and 5.93% for 2021.

Earnings revisions with Neutral call. With higher asset growth and better operating expense management, which are partly offset by the higher cost of credit, we upgrade our earnings by 21% for 2020 and 9% for 2021. Rolling to 2021, we also raise our TP to Rp35,000 (from Rp26,500) based on 4.3x FY21F P/BV. This still puts the stock at Neutral, with a potential upside of 6%.

FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Pre-Provision Profit 35,383 40,880 43,361 46,857 50,864 Net Profit 25,855 28,565 26,722 32,541 35,968 EPS 1,049 1,159 1,084 1,320 1,459 EPS Growth (%) 10.9 10.5 (6.5) 21.8 10.5 P/E Ratio (x) 31.5 28.5 30.4 25.0 22.6 BVPS 6,151 7,059 7,349 8,161 9,016 P/BV Ratio (x) 5.4 4.7 4.5 4.0 3.7 Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.8 ROAE (%) 18.3 17.5 15.0 17.0 17.0 CAR (%) 24.0 24.6 21.6 22.3 22.5

Source: Company (2018-2019), Mandiri Sekuritas (2020-2022)

BBCA EARNINGS REVISIONS Year-end Dec 31 OLD NEW Change

(IDRb) 2020E 2021E 2022E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2020E 2021E 2022E

Net interest income 51,271 54,810 62,219 55,624 60,363 65,634 8.5 10.1 5.5

Net interest margin (%) 6.04 5.91 5.97 6.18 5.93 5.95 — — —

Total income 71,992 77,531 87,775 75,439 81,640 88,968 4.8 5.3 1.4

Pre provision operating profit 38,910 41,424 48,263 43,361 46,857 50,864 11.4 13.1 5.4

Operating profit 27,456 36,886 42,684 33,165 40,432 43,608 20.8 9.6 2.2

Reported net profit 22,167 29,781 35,208 26,722 32,541 35,968 20.6 9.3 2.2

Growth/ratios (%): Loan growth 0.7 11.9 13.0 1.0 5.9 11.0

Deposit growth 5.0 12.4 13.4 13.5 8.2 8.2

LDR 80.6 80.3 80.0 74.9 73.3 75.2

NPL 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9

Coverage ratio 240 240 240 230 240 220

Cost of Credit 1.9 0.7 0.8 2.2 1.1 1.1

Write off to total loans 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9

NIM 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.9

Cost to income 46.0 46.6 45.0 42.5 42.6 42.8

ROA 2.4 3.0 3.1 2.7 3.0 3.1

ROE 12.9 16.0 17.0 15.3 17.1 17.1

CAR 21.9 22.2 22.3 21.6 22.3 22.5

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Tjandra Lienandjaja (+6221 5296 9617) [email protected] Silvony Gathrie (+6221 5296 9544) [email protected]




Ciputra Development: 3Q20 Below Expectations but Expecting a Strong 4Q20 (CTRA; Rp895; Buy; TP: Rp1,120)

CTRA saw qoq improvement on the back of handovers at landed housing and apartment projects. Recurring income also saw improvement as mall rental charges resumed while the hospital business also saw substantial improvement due to COVID handling. While 9M20 PATMI was optically below forecasts at 28% of our full-year forecast and 30% of consensus’, the company should see meaningful improvement in 4Q20 from handovers. Maintain Buy.

3Q20 revenue +11% qoq, -5% yoy. Landed unit revenues continued supporting 3Q20 earnings with +14% qoq and +23% yoy growth on the back of handovers at Citra Maja Raya while apartment handovers at CitraLand Surabaya and Ciputra International also gained traction increasing tenfold qoq as 2Q saw delays due to lockdown. On aggregate, development revenue increased 1% qoq and 7% yoy, Recurring revenue also improved substantially by +59% qoq as rental charges at malls resumed while the hospital business also improved +103% qoq and +62% yoy due to taking in of COVID cases. On yoy basis however recurring revenue still fell 29% yoy. Development revenue contribution remained high at 76% compared to the norm of a 70:30 ratio. 9M20 revenue of IDR 4.2tn marked a 9% decline yoy and translated to 64% of our and 67% of consensus’ full-year expectation, broadly in-line accounting for seasonality as 4Q20 is expected to see sizeable handovers at CitraLand Surabaya.

Margin dip qoq and yoy. 3Q20 gross margin remained weak at 43% as contribution from higher-margin land lots had decreased on a qoq basis, while landed housing contribution from Citra Maja Raya earns the company lower margins. Shopping centre profitability had also not fully recovered as rental discounts had still applied and as operating hours remained reduced. Resultantly, operating margin also remained weak despite continued cost savings in fixed operating costs and selling activities. 9M20 operating profit of IDR 790bn, -29% yoy, was slightly below full-year forecasts at 45% and 49% of our and consensus’ respective expectations.

Positive albeit weak 3Q20 PATMI. 3Q20 saw improvement in PATMI at IDR 63bn from net loss of IDR 8bn in 2Q20, albeit still weak at -48% yoy and at just 4% net margin. The stronger qoq revenue recognition led to improvement in interest coverage at 1.7x from a low of 1.5x in 2Q20; interest costs had eroded 2Q20 earnings resulting in net loss. Accumulated, 9M20 PATMI of IDR 232bn was a 44% yoy decline and translated to just 28% of our full-year forecast and 30% of consensus’, below expectations however mitigated by expectations of a stronger 4Q20.

Maintain Buy. We maintain Buy on CTRA at IDR 1,120 PT. CTRA currently trades at 79% discount to NAV, 0.7 standard deviations below its 5-year mean of 72%.

3Q20 RESULTS VS ESTIMATES

IDRbn 2Q20 3Q20 3Q19 QoQ % YoY% 9M19 9M20 YoY% 2020F 2020C % of target

% of cons

Revenue 1,295 1,436 1,510 11% -5% 4,655 4,240 -9% 6,590 6,312 64% 67% Gross profit 589 617 769 5% -20% 2,258 1,914 -15% 3,278 3,104 58% 62% Operating profit 205 249 362 22% -31% 1,114 790 -29% 1,748 1,616 45% 49% Pretax profit 18 141 210 698% -32% 646 399 -38% 1,186 1,092 34% 37% Net profit (8) 63 120 -884% -48% 417 232 -44% 832 776 28% 30% Gross margin 45% 43% 51% 49% 45% 50% 49% Operating margin 16% 17% 24% 24% 19% 27% 26% Pretax profit 1% 10% 14% 14% 9% 18% 17% Net margin -1% 4% 8% 9% 5% 13% 12% Debt 9,272 9,655 8,907 8,907 9,655 Equity 17,043 16,864 16,965 16,965 16,864 Cash 3,810 4,385 3,237 3,237 4,385 Net gearing 32.0% 31.2% 33.4% 33.4% 31.2% Revenue breakdown Revenue 1,295 1,436 1,510 11% -5% 4,655 4,240 -9% Landed 749 851 694 14% 23% 2,247 2,380 6% Apartments 12 131 165 998% -21% 530 159 -70%




IDRbn 2Q20 3Q20 3Q19 QoQ % YoY% 9M19 9M20 YoY% 2020F 2020C % of

target % of cons

Offices 68 43 118 -36% -63% 335 332 -1% Land lots 245 60 39 -76% 52% 161 346 115% Shopping centres 87 130 196 50% -34% 579 407 -30% Hospitals 62 126 78 103% 62% 226 276 22% Hotels 16 31 135 92% -77% 345 144 -58% Others 55 63 85 14% -26% 231 196 -15% GPM 45.5% 43.0% 50.9% 48.5% 45.1% Landed 46.7% 42.9% 52.7% 49.8% 46.6% Apartments 23.8% 42.7% 41.1% 35.5% 39.5% Offices 39.3% 44.3% 47.0% 40.5% 29.9% Land lots 57.0% 45.9% 54.4% 63.7% 55.3% Shopping centres 34.0% 48.4% 63.3% 61.9% 52.6% Hospitals 41.7% 45.4% 44.0% 45.8% 44.6% Hotels -37.9% 7.4% 42.7% 39.5% 21.6% Others 39.0% 44.5% 47.6% 47.7% 44.0% Opex (384) (368) (407) -4% -10% (1,144) (1,125) -2% Selling (320) (309) (325) -4% -5% (913) (911) 0% G&A (64) (59) (82) -7% -28% (231) (214) -7% Interest expense (187) (195) (213) 4% -8% (648) (590) -9% Interest income 48 57 55 19% 3% 160 165 3% EBITDA/gross interest 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.7

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates

Robin Sutanto (+6221 5296 9572) [email protected] Perusahaan Gas Negara: Operational Data in Oct-20 (PGAS; Rp1,405; Buy; TP: Rp1,700)

PGAS reported a 2.0% MoM distribution volume increase in Oct-20 despite 8.0% MoM lower working days and Jakarta’s stricter PSBB in the first two weeks of Oct-20. We expect potential upside on all operating metrics, except for Upstream lifting, if PGAS can maintain its solid performance. We think this is achievable as we also expect little noise in economic activities in coming months. Retain BUY.

PGAS posted decent distribution volume growth in Oct-20. PGAS reported 851BBTUD distribution volume in Oct-20, up 2.0% MoM, despite 8.0% MoM lower working days and Jakarta’s stricter PSBB in the first two weeks of Oct-20. Volume contribution from new gas price (i.e. USD6/MMBTU in accordance to MEMR Decree no. 89/2020 and MEMR Decree no. 91/2020) increased from 497BBTUD in Sep-20 to 513BBTUD in Oct-20, implying 75.7% of total allocated volume. This can be attributed to Fertilizer customers, which booked 38BBTUD volume increase to offset 18BBTUD volume decline in PLN in Oct-20. On a 10-month basis, PGAS reported 816BBTUD distribution volume in 10M20, down 16.6% YoY but surpassing our forecast of 770BBTUD in FY20.

In addition, PGAS also reported 1,227BBTUD transmission volume in Oct-20, down 0.7% MoM, likely due to lower demand from power plants. We highlight that most of transmission volume demand within PGN Group comes from power plant and fertilizer sector. Upstream lifting increased 2.4% MoM, mostly supported by higher LNG lifting in Muara Bakau and gas lifting in Fasken. Meanwhile, Pangkah and Ketapang booked 13-90% MoM lifting volume drop in Oct-20. Other business segments such as LPG Processing and Oil Transportation booked 1.0-2.9% MoM volume decline in Oct-20, while Gas Regasification saw volume increase by 18.8% MoM in the same period.

Retain BUY rating with TP Rp1,700. Our view on the milder impact of Jakarta’s stricter PSBB was correct as PGAS has booked a decent distribution volume growth in the last two months. We think the distribution volume recovery trend will be sustainable towards year-end as we expect little noise in economic activities in coming months. We also highlight potential upside on all operating metrics, except for Upstream lifting, from our FY20 estimate.




OPERATING METRICS SUMMARY

Oct-19 Sep-20 Oct-20 % MoM % YoY 10M19 10M20 % YoY vs. FY20 Mansek

Distribution Volume (BBTUD)

1,040 834 851 2.0% -18.1% 978 816 -16.6% 105.9%

Transmission Volume (BBTUD)

2,085 1,236 1,227 -0.7% -41.2% 2,041 1,270 -37.8% 104.8%

Upstream Lifting (MMBOE)

0.88 0.52 0.55 5.9% -38.0% 8.98 5.83 -35.1% N.A.

Regasification (BBTUD) 167 85 101 18.8% -39.5% 123 94 -23.5% 188.2% LPG Processing (MTPD) 682 138 134 -2.9% -80.4% 726 126 -82.7% 143.3% Oil Transportation (bbl) 314,936 298,080 294,965 -1.0% -6.3% 3,095,892 3,074,765 -0.7% 86.4%

Source: Company Data, Mandiri Sekuritas Research estimates

Henry Tedja (+6221 5296 9434) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]

Market Recap November 20th 2020; JCI 5,571.66 Points -22.40 pts (-0.40%); Valued $703mn; Mkt Cap $439bn; USD/IDR 14,201

TOP TURNOVER: TLKM BBRI BBCA PGAS BBNI BMRI ANTM HMSP GIAA WSBP ASII MDKA ASRI PPRO AISA PTBA ADRO GGRM (40%)

ADVANCING SECTOR: construction & cement+0.9%; telco+0.7%; auto flat

DECLINING SECTOR: mining-1.2%; consumer-1.1%; property-0.8%; financial-0.6%; plantation-0.1%

Indo stock market was see-saw-ing for the majority of today’s trading as investors’ sentiment was affected by worrying sign of surging infections in advanced economies. Recent data showed COVID-19 hospitalizations across the US jumped by nearly 50% in the last two weeks, threatening the recovery of the world’s largest economy as cities and states began to impose lockdowns. In Indonesia, the national daily infection rate rose slightly from 11% as of Wed to 12% as of yesterday (vs. 3DMA 11% and 7DMA 13%). The JCI fell 0.40% to 5571 level. The ground-breaking of Smartpolitan (SSIA’s Subang Industrial Estate in West Java), after being delayed a few years, put a spotlight on SSIA, whose share price jumping 0.9%. SSIA will leverage its expertise in industrial and infrastructure development and expects to witness a jump in recurring income thru Subang infrastructure and ancillary services. Other industrial estate followed suit: MMLP+0.8%, even DILD up 6.9% after cutting marketing target from IDR2.5TN to IDR1TN. Also, GIAA gained 1.03% as today’s EGM approved the issuance of IDR8.5TN mandatory convertible bonds as part of the govt’s assistance package for SOEs during the pandemic. The Indo govt has allocated higher-than-initially planned amount of state capital injection in the state budget, or at IDR45.05TN. At the same time, PGAS added 3.7% on expectation of better-than-expected operational data for the remainder of the year. Market turnover (excluding $29MN BBCA; $17.3MN NATO; $13.6MN BMRI; $11.8MN SMMA crossing) fell 14% d/d to $703MN. Foreign participants also declined to 18% and came up better seller for 14%. Losers beat gainers by 13 to 10. Indonesia’s 3Q20 current account surplus at $1.0BN was below consensus estimate of $1.55BN, translating into +0.4% of GDP. The IDR extended decline to 14201 level after the central bank cut its policy rate for the first time in four months and as investors booked profit. The IDR weakened 0.2% for the week. Consensus expect the spread between 1-month and 12-month IDR forwards is likely to narrow further after yesterday’s rate cut. While the short end will be anchored by a stable spot USD/IDR that will still allow the 1-year sector to outperform. Local banks have not been passing on all the rate cuts seen in this cycle, which could mean Bank Indonesia will be prompted to ease again next year should the economy not expand as quickly as hoped for. In the meantime there is still some distance to travel before the NDF curve flattens as far as it did in early 2018. The 10-year govt bond yield rose 2bps to 6.20%, declining 10bps this week alone. Global funds bought a net $77.8MN of Indonesian bonds on Nov 18th; and bought a net $23.2MN of the nation’s equities on Nov 19th.

Sales Team +6221 527 5375

MARKET




State Capital Injection Realization has Reached Rp 16.95 tn As quoted from Bisnis Indonesia, the disbursement of state capital injection has reached Rp 16.95 tn as of 10 November 2020 in which the recipients consisted of: PLN (Rp 5.0 tn), PT LPEI (Rp 5.0 tn), Hutama Karya (Rp 3.5 tn), Sarana Multigriya Finansial (Rp 1.75 tn), PT PNM (Rp 1.0 tn) and Geo Dipa Energi (Rp 0.7 tn). Furthermore, through Finance Minister Decision No.500/2020, the government will allocate additional state capital injection budget for: Bio Farma (Rp 2.0 tn), Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (Rp 1.57 tn) and PT LPEI (an additional Rp 5tn). (Bisnis Indonesia) OJK to issue regulation that extends the loan restructuring period On the new regulation, OJK will also regulate the terms of dividend distribution, considering how much provision the bank would need if the restructured loans turn bad. This is to avoid the erosion in bank’s capital. (Investor Daily) Bank Mandiri (BMRI) disburses Rp900bn loans to Indoritel (DNET) The loan facility has 8.50% in interest. DNET states that the funds will be used for corporate action as well as business expansion. (Investor Daily)

FROM THE PRESS




Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 22 Nov’20

Testing: Daily specimens tested on avg was 40k over the weekend. Daily case tested on avg was 32k over the weekend.

New cases: Indo recorded 4,792/4,998/4,360 new cases on Fri-Sun.

Infection rate: Daily national infection crept up to 15% avg on weekend (vs. 7DMA 13%). Jakarta daily infection rate was 15% avg on weekend (7DMA 10%).

Epicenters: avg over the weekend, Jakarta (+1,387, record-high on Saturday with 1,579 new cases); Central Java (+547); West Java (+536).

From the news: Jakarta to extend PSBB transisi until 6 Dec’20.

COVID-19 INDONESIA




Inggrid Gondoprastowo (+6221 5296 9450) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]




Indices and Fund Flows Currencies and Bonds Major Commodities

Indices Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)

Currency Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)

Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)

JCI 5,571.7 -0.4 -11.6 Rp/US$ 14,165 +0.07 -2.3 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 42.15 +1.0 -31.0

Dow Jones 29,263.5 -0.8 +2.5 US$/EUR 1.186 -0.15 -5.4 Copper (US$/mt) 7,263 +2.6 +18.1

Nikkei 25,527.4 -0.4 +7.9 YEN/US$ 103.86 +0.12 +4.6 Nickel (US$/mt) 16,116 +2.0 +15.5

Hang Seng 26,451.5 +0.4 -6.2 SGD/US$ 1.344 -0.09 +0.2 Gold (US$/oz) 1,871 +0.2 +23.3

STI 2,813.0 +1.3 -12.7 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 18,795 +0.4 +9.4

Ishares indo 21.6 -0.6 -15.9 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 3,288 -1.6 +8.5

Coal (US$/ton) 63.4 +1.1 -6.4

Foreign Fund Flows (US$mn)

Last Chg YTD Chg

Gov. Bond Yield

Last Chg

(bps)

YTD Chg

(bps) Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 238.1 -6.3 +43.2

Equity Flow -22.6 -2,730 5Yr 5.18 +1 -126 Soybean oil (US$/100gallons)

38.66 -0.4 +12.1

Bonds Flow +348.3 -5,358 10Yr 6.22 +4 -85 Baltic Dry Index 1,148.0 +1.0 +5.3




Equity Valuation Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield

Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021

MANSEK universe 5,572 5,540 -0.6 4,125,952 189,208 259,574 21.8 15.9 2.3 2.1 14.6 12.4 -25.1% 37.2% 2.9% 2.4%

Banking 1,625,092 66,855 102,812 24.3 15.8 2.4 2.1 N.A. N.A. -30.4% 53.8% 2.5% 1.5%

BBCA Neutral 33,000 35,000 6.1 813,615 26,722 32,541 30.4 25.0 4.5 4.0 N.A. N.A. -6.5% 21.8% 1.7% 1.5%

BBNI Buy 5,675 5,900 4.0 105,831 7,073 15,323 15.0 6.9 1.0 0.9 N.A. N.A. -54.0% 116.6% 3.6% 1.7%

BBRI Neutral 4,020 4,000 (0.5) 495,660 19,246 33,603 25.8 14.8 2.6 2.2 N.A. N.A. -44.0% 74.6% 3.5% 1.2%

BBTN Buy 1,680 1,900 13.1 17,791 1,510 2,120 11.8 8.4 1.0 0.9 N.A. N.A. 621.6% 40.4% 3.2% 1.6%

BDMN Buy 2,740 4,000 46.0 26,262 2,703 4,752 9.7 5.5 0.6 0.5 N.A. N.A. -33.6% 75.8% 5.4% 3.6%

BJBR Buy 1,290 860 (33.3) 12,692 1,260 1,438 10.1 8.8 1.2 1.1 N.A. N.A. -19.2% 14.1% 7.3% 7.3%

BJTM Buy 615 590 (4.1) 9,226 1,146 1,434 8.1 6.4 1.0 0.9 N.A. N.A. -16.8% 25.2% 7.8% 7.9%

BNGA Buy 835 840 0.6 20,985 2,340 4,211 9.0 5.0 0.5 0.5 N.A. N.A. -35.8% 80.0% 6.9% 4.5%

BNLI Sell 2,240 430 (80.8) 62,816 909 1,494 69.1 42.0 2.6 2.4 N.A. N.A. -39.4% 64.4% 0.0% 0.0%

PNBN Buy 940 1,100 17.0 22,642 1,976 3,508 11.5 6.5 0.6 0.5 N.A. N.A. -40.4% 77.5% 0.0% 0.0%

BTPS Buy 4,100 3,200 (22.0) 31,585 1,189 1,547 26.6 20.4 5.0 4.1 N.A. N.A. -15.1% 30.1% 0.9% 0.8%

BFIN Buy 400 475 18.8 5,986 781 841 7.7 7.1 0.9 0.8 N.A. N.A. 9.7% 7.7% 3.0% 3.9%

Construction & materials 197,207 3,363 7,827 58.6 25.2 1.5 1.5 16.3 11.9 -73.2% 132.8% 1.5% 0.9%

INTP Buy 14,400 14,500 0.7 53,010 1,673 2,003 31.7 26.5 2.2 2.1 14.7 12.9 -8.9% 19.8% 1.2% 1.1%

SMGR Buy 11,350 11,020 (2.9) 67,323 2,520 2,825 26.7 23.8 2.0 1.9 10.5 9.8 5.4% 12.1% 1.8% 1.4%

ADHI Buy 920 810 (12.0) 3,276 105 361 31.2 9.1 0.6 0.5 9.4 7.2 -84.2% 243.0% 4.1% 0.6%

PTPP Buy 1,150 1,370 19.1 7,130 219 754 32.6 9.5 0.6 0.6 10.5 6.9 -76.5% 244.3% 3.9% 0.9%

WIKA Buy 1,425 1,680 17.9 12,768 561 1,159 22.8 11.0 0.9 0.8 8.8 6.8 -75.4% 106.5% 0.9% 1.8%

WSKT Buy 1,025 1,230 20.0 13,716 -2,141 -1,501 -6.4 -9.1 1.3 1.5 37.2 23.0 N/M 29.9% -3.1% -2.2%

WTON Buy 318 500 57.2 2,772 285 438 9.7 6.3 0.8 0.7 4.3 3.1 -44.4% 53.7% 5.5% 3.1%

WSBP Buy 214 195 (8.9) 5,641 -115 83 -48.9 68.1 0.8 0.8 21.2 15.0 N/M N/M 7.1% 0.0%

JSMR Buy 4,350 5,690 30.8 31,572 256 1,707 123.2 18.5 1.7 1.6 25.3 12.6 -88.4% 566.0% 1.4% 0.2%

Consumer staples 906,390 41,277 51,577 22.0 17.6 4.7 4.3 14.1 11.6 -14.8% 25.0% 3.8% 3.3%

ICBP Buy 10,100 12,050 19.3 117,785 5,977 6,319 19.7 18.6 4.1 3.7 11.6 11.3 18.6% 5.7% 2.1% 2.5%

INDF Buy 7,225 9,950 37.7 63,435 5,919 6,307 10.7 10.1 1.5 1.4 6.6 6.2 20.6% 6.5% 3.8% 4.6%

MYOR Buy 2,480 2,600 4.8 55,450 2,413 2,190 23.0 25.3 4.9 4.4 15.7 14.5 21.4% -9.2% 1.4% 1.6%

UNVR Buy 7,725 9,700 25.6 294,709 7,420 8,138 39.7 36.2 58.9 54.7 27.9 25.6 0.3% 9.7% 2.5% 2.5%

GGRM Buy 44,125 63,450 43.8 84,900 7,422 10,321 11.4 8.2 1.6 1.4 7.5 5.9 -31.8% 39.1% 5.9% 5.9%

HMSP Buy 1,525 2,400 57.4 177,385 8,342 13,384 21.3 13.3 5.8 5.0 16.3 9.7 -39.2% 60.4% 7.6% 4.6%

KLBF Buy 1,495 1,900 27.1 70,078 2,731 2,842 25.7 24.7 4.0 3.7 17.4 16.5 9.0% 4.1% 1.9% 2.0%

SIDO Buy 800 980 22.5 24,000 912 1,011 26.3 23.7 7.4 7.1 19.7 17.7 12.9% 10.9% 3.1% 3.7%

MLBI Buy 8,850 13,250 49.7 18,647 141 1,063 132.7 17.5 48.8 14.3 32.5 11.3 -88.3% 656.9% 4.8% 0.8%

Healthcare 53,605 842 1,080 63.7 49.6 4.1 3.9 22.4 18.1 30.2% 28.3% 0.1% 0.1%

MIKA Buy 2,430 2,750 13.2 35,358 547 659 64.7 53.7 7.8 7.1 42.6 34.3 -25.1% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0%

SILO Buy 4,880 5,950 21.9 7,930 -44 22 -180.3 357.0 1.3 1.3 10.8 8.4 87.0% N/M 0.0% 0.0%

HEAL Buy 3,470 4,000 15.3 10,316 339 400 30.4 25.8 4.2 3.7 13.1 10.8 32.9% 17.8% 0.3% 0.5%

Consumer discretionary 331,047 21,267 26,110 15.6 12.7 1.6 1.5 10.9 8.6 -29.5% 22.8% 3.8% 3.1%

ACES Neutral 1,635 1,500 (8.3) 28,040 711 1,055 39.5 26.6 5.7 5.0 30.4 21.6 -31.0% 48.5% 1.8% 1.3%

LPPF Buy 1,050 1,800 71.4 3,064 50 497 60.7 6.2 1.7 1.3 4.6 1.7 -96.3% 884.6% 0.0% 0.5%

MAPA Buy 2,400 3,850 60.4 6,841 54 606 125.6 11.3 2.2 1.9 17.3 5.9 -92.1% 1013.2% 0.0% 0.2%

MAPI Buy 785 1,000 27.4 13,031 -1,704 543 -7.6 24.0 3.1 2.7 -124.3 7.8 N/M N/M 1.6% 0.0%

RALS Buy 740 700 (5.4) 5,251 -132 143 -39.8 36.8 1.5 1.4 -70.9 15.5 N/M N/M 7.3% -1.6%

ERAA Buy 1,820 2,000 9.9 5,806 268 436 21.7 13.3 1.2 1.1 10.7 9.0 -9.3% 63.0% 0.9% 1.5%

ASII Buy 5,725 6,300 10.0 231,768 17,763 18,098 13.0 12.8 1.5 1.4 10.8 9.2 -18.2% 1.9% 4.2% 3.4%

SCMA Buy 1,495 1,800 20.4 22,018 1,566 1,693 14.1 13.0 3.7 3.4 9.8 9.4 35.7% 8.1% 5.0% 5.4%

MNCN Buy 920 2,200 139.1 11,412 2,427 2,593 4.7 4.4 0.9 0.7 3.5 3.0 24.1% 6.8% 3.2% 3.4%

MSIN Buy 298 650 118.1 1,550 267 316 5.8 4.9 1.0 0.9 3.4 3.2 16.3% 18.1% 8.6% 10.2%

PZZA Buy 750 750 0.0 2,266 -2 130 -1,098.5 17.4 1.8 1.7 12.4 6.6 N/M N/M 4.4% 0.0%

Commodities 290,108 21,057 25,415 13.8 11.4 1.2 1.2 5.1 4.4 -13.3% 20.7% 2.9% 3.3%

UNTR Buy 21,300 31,700 48.8 79,452 7,172 10,603 11.1 7.5 1.3 1.1 4.4 3.2 -36.6% 47.8% 2.7% 4.0%

ADRO* Neutral 1,215 1,350 11.1 38,863 372 353 7.3 7.8 0.7 0.7 3.1 2.9 -7.9% -5.2% 4.8% 4.5%

HRUM* Neutral 2,290 1,300 (43.2) 5,878 17 14 23.6 30.4 1.3 1.3 6.1 6.8 -5.9% -21.7% 2.3% 1.8%




INDY* Neutral 1,170 910 (22.2) 6,096 2 6 258.6 67.4 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.5 N/M 286.9% 0.1% 0.4%

ITMG* Neutral 10,150 10,450 3.0 11,130 100 101 7.8 7.8 0.9 0.9 2.7 2.5 -20.8% 0.9% 10.9% 10.9%

PTBA Neutral 2,190 2,350 7.3 25,234 3,482 3,496 7.2 7.2 1.3 1.3 4.5 4.4 -18.3% 0.4% 10.3% 10.4%

ANTM Buy 1,210 1,300 7.4 29,077 1,107 1,320 26.3 22.0 1.3 1.3 10.8 10.1 470.9% 19.3% 1.3% 1.6%

INCO* Neutral 4,560 4,000 (12.3) 45,310 103 106 30.9 30.1 1.6 1.5 9.7 9.3 78.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%

TINS Neutral 1,105 800 (27.6) 8,230 -111 357 -74.0 23.1 1.5 1.4 19.6 10.8 81.8% N/M -0.5% 1.5%

MDKA* Buy 1,865 2,100 12.6 40,839 64 99 44.6 29.0 5.1 4.4 14.2 10.8 -11.8% 55.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Property & Industrial Estate 110,564 5,762 8,760 19.2 12.6 0.9 0.8 11.5 10.1 -28.9% 52.0% 2.2% 1.6%

ASRI Buy 236 210 (11.0) 4,637 42 683 111.0 6.8 0.4 0.4 11.3 8.2 -95.9% 1534.2% 0.8% 0.8%

BSDE Buy 1,060 1,160 9.4 22,442 1,399 2,050 16.0 10.9 0.7 0.7 12.0 11.1 -54.4% 46.5% 0.0% 0.4%

CTRA Buy 895 1,120 25.1 16,611 832 1,094 20.0 15.2 1.0 1.0 12.1 10.3 -28.2% 31.5% 0.8% 0.8%

JRPT Buy 492 670 36.2 6,765 997 1,065 6.8 6.4 0.9 0.8 6.0 5.4 -1.9% 6.7% 3.9% 0.1%

PWON Buy 500 700 40.0 24,080 1,007 1,764 23.9 13.6 1.5 1.4 14.1 9.9 -63.0% 75.2% 1.2% 1.2%

SMRA Buy 780 960 23.1 11,253 420 604 26.8 18.6 1.5 1.4 11.5 10.3 -18.5% 43.8% 0.6% 0.6%

LPKR Neutral 158 200 26.6 11,154 74 391 151.0 28.5 0.4 0.4 11.1 11.2 N/M 429.7% 0.6% 0.6%

DMAS Buy 246 300 22.0 11,857 885 988 13.4 12.0 2.0 2.0 12.9 11.6 -33.7% 11.7% 13.0% 8.5%

BEST Neutral 183 130 (29.0) 1,765 107 122 16.6 14.5 0.4 0.4 7.5 10.7 -72.0% 14.2% 1.9% 0.5%

Telco 444,391 23,702 25,930 18.7 17.1 2.9 2.7 6.1 5.7 -5.2% 9.4% 4.0% 4.3%

EXCL Buy 2,300 3,600 56.5 24,582 1,065 818 23.1 30.1 1.2 1.2 4.6 4.3 49.5% -23.2% 0.9% 1.3%

TLKM Buy 3,220 3,900 21.1 318,980 19,403 21,026 16.4 15.2 3.1 3.0 5.8 5.5 4.0% 8.4% 4.9% 5.3%

ISAT Buy 2,200 3,200 45.5 11,955 -1,046 -648 -11.4 -18.5 1.0 1.1 4.3 3.8 N/M 38.1% 0.0% 0.0%

LINK Buy 2,310 3,300 42.9 6,554 736 744 8.9 8.8 1.3 1.3 3.9 3.8 -17.8% 1.1% 6.7% 5.7%

TBIG Buy 1,415 1,400 (1.1) 30,608 1,068 1,264 28.6 24.2 5.6 5.0 12.5 11.7 30.4% 18.3% 2.0% 2.0%

TOWR Buy 1,030 1,300 26.2 51,711 2,476 2,725 20.9 19.0 5.2 4.5 11.5 10.8 5.7% 10.1% 2.3% 2.3%

Chemical 2,653 136 163 19.6 16.3 0.8 0.8 7.3 6.6 29.5% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0%

AGII Buy 865 700 (19.1) 2,653 136 163 19.6 16.3 0.8 0.8 7.3 6.6 29.5% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Airlines 2,880 540 837 5.3 3.4 0.5 0.4 4.4 2.8 30.0% 55.0% 0.0% 0.0%

GMFI* Neutral 102 275 169.4 2,880 38 59 5.3 3.4 0.5 0.4 4.4 2.8 26.1% 56.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Transportation 2,952 -175 251 -16.9 11.8 0.6 0.6 12.5 4.9 -155.7% N/M -1.5% 2.1%

BIRD Buy 1,180 1,700 44.1 2,952 -175 251 -16.9 11.8 0.6 0.6 12.5 4.9 N/M N/M -1.5% 2.1%

Poultry 122,260 2,988 5,574 40.9 21.9 3.4 3.1 18.2 12.3 -46.2% 86.5% 1.3% 1.0%

CPIN Buy 6,475 6,950 7.3 106,177 2,775 3,728 38.3 28.5 4.7 4.2 21.9 17.8 -23.6% 34.3% 1.3% 1.1%

JPFA Buy 1,255 1,700 35.5 14,717 344 1,696 42.7 8.7 1.3 1.2 10.8 5.6 -80.5% 392.5% 1.6% 0.7%

MAIN Buy 610 700 14.8 1,366 -131 150 -10.4 9.1 0.7 0.6 12.8 4.6 N/M N/M 0.0% 0.0%

Oil and Gas 34,059 1,511 3,133 22.5 10.9 0.9 0.9 7.3 5.9 61.2% 107.4% 1.8% 3.7%

PGAS* Buy 1,405 1,700 21.0 34,059 106 221 22.5 10.9 0.9 0.9 7.3 5.9 56.4% 109.1% 1.8% 3.7%

Asset Management 2,744 84 104 32.7 27.7 9.5 9.9 26.6 22.8 1.2% 24.2% 3.1% 3.4%

AMOR Buy 2,600 2,500 (3.8) 2,744 80 88 34.5 32.7 9.6 10.0 25.7 27.4 -12.9% 5.6% 3.2% 2.9%

Note: - *) net profit in USD mn - U/R means Under Review - n/a means Not Available - N/M means Not Meaningful - N.A means Not Applicable


Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Menara Mandiri Tower I, 25th floor, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54 – 55, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5374 (Equity Sales)

Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer [email protected] +6221 5296 9415 Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research, Banking [email protected] +6221 5296 9617 Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining, Chemical [email protected] +6221 5296 9682 Kresna Hutabarat Telecom, Media [email protected] +6221 5296 9542 Lakshmi Rowter Healthcare, Consumer, Retail [email protected] +6221 5296 9549 Robin Sutanto Property, Building Material [email protected] +6221 5296 9572 Edbert Surya Construction, Transportation [email protected] +6221 5296 9623 Silvony Gathrie Banking [email protected] +6221 5296 9544 Inggrid Gondoprastowo Healthcare, Consumer, Retail [email protected] +6221 5296 9450 Riyanto Hartanto Poultry, Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9488 Henry Tedja Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9434 Wesley Louis Alianto Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9510 Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9406 Imanuel Reinaldo Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9651 Silva Halim Managing Director [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Lokman Lie Head of Equity Capital Market [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Henry Pranoto Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Kevin Giarto Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Angga Aditya Assaf Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Ilona Carissa Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Michael Taarea Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities [email protected] 6221 5296 9693 Boy Triyono Jakarta [email protected] 6221 5296 5678 Care Center Online Jakarta [email protected] 14032 Ruwie Medan [email protected] 6261 8050 1825 Linawati Surabaya [email protected] 6231 535 7218 Maulidia Osviana Lampung [email protected] 62721 476 135 Aidil Idham Palembang [email protected] 62711 319 900 Dhanan Febrie Handita Bandung [email protected] 6222 426 5088 Yuri Ariadi Pontianak [email protected] 62561 582 293 Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta [email protected] 62274 560 596 Achmad Rasyid Bali [email protected] 62361 475 3066 www.most.co.id [email protected] 14032

INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number 62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275374. ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

RESEARCH

INSTITUTIONAL SALES

RETAIL SALES

3Q20 BoP; BBCA, CTRA, PGAS, Market Recap, Covid-19 Update · 2020. 11. 23. · This report is...

Documents

Transcript of 3Q20 BoP; BBCA, CTRA, PGAS, Market Recap, Covid-19 Update · 2020. 11. 23. · This report is...