3Q14 Coverage Update & Previews IT Distribution October 24 ... · Dom Maklerski BZ WBK S.A. with...

Dom Maklerski BZ WBK S.A. with its registered office in Poznan, Pl. Wolności 15, 60 - 967 Poznan, registered by the District Court in Poznan – Nowe Miasto i Wilda, Division VIII Commercial of the National Court Register under the number KRS 0000006408, Taxpayer Identification No. 778-13-59-968, with share capital amounting to PLN 45 073 400 fully paid up. DM BZ WBK S.A. is subject to the supervision of the Financial Supervision Commission. The disclaimers concerning the nature of the published document are found on the last page of the document and constitute its integral part.

3Q14 Coverage Update & Previews

IT Distribution

October 24, 2014

3Q14 Results Preview: Sector outlook. We expect that all three Polish IT

distributors managed to expand their revenues by double-digit numbers in 3Q14. For each

company, the source of growth lies in its operations abroad. The Polish market grew by

low-single digit numbers in 3Q14 and we expect a similar growth pace on the domestic

market for Action, AB and ABC Data. We expect that Action (Neutral Outcome) should

show the highest top-line growth. We also expect it to the only one to improve its earnings

y/y. AB (Negative Outcome) and ABC Data (Negative Outcome) should report mediocre

results, lower y/y across all the earnings lines.

Changes to valuations & recommendations. We hereby upgrade our

recommendation for ABC Data to HOLD from SELL and raise our TP to PLN4.1 from

PLN4.0. Our recommendations for other companies remain unchanged (BUY on Action

and AB). Still, the joint impact of (1) adjustments to forecasts and (2) the cut to RFR

resulted in an increase in the AB’s Target Price (new TP at PLN43.0, up 10%). Despite the

factors mentioned above, our TP for Action remains unchanged (PLN69.7).

Action: 3Q14 results preview PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E y/y q/q

Sales 669 1,023 788 752 827 1,148 1,132 989 1,140 1,488 1,324 1,197 1,333 16.9% 11.3%

EBITDA 16.5 24.0 18.0 16.9 18.8 25.9 22.6 21.1 21.1 26.6 25.8 24.1 23.8 12.6% -1.3%

EBITDA margin 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% -0.1 -0.2

EBIT 13.7 21.0 15.1 14.0 16.0 23.1 20.3 18.8 18.7 24.2 23.5 21.6 21.3 13.8% -1.4%

EBIT margin 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0 -0.2

Net profit 10.1 15.0 11.1 9.3 11.0 16.8 15.0 13.3 14.0 19.3 17.3 15.9 15.7 12.0% -1.5%

Net margin 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% -0.1 -0.2

Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

AB: 1Q14/15 results preview PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

1Q11/12 2Q11/12 3Q11/12 4Q11/12 1Q12/13 2Q12/13 3Q12/13 4Q12/13 1Q13/14 2Q13/14 3Q13/14 4Q13/14 1Q14/15E y/y q/q

Sales 944 1,429 1,001 963 1,123 1,730 1,355 1,306 1,256 1,637 1,348 1,517 1,428 13.7% -5.9%

EBITDA 24.2 36.7 13.8 16.9 14.3 28.4 15.2 16.2 20.6 33.5 18.8 23.1 19.4 -5.8% -15.7%

EBITDA margin 2.6% 2.6% 1.4% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% -0.3 -0.2

EBIT 21.8 34.0 11.6 14.1 11.9 25.8 12.6 13.8 18.2 31.0 16.3 19.9 16.2 -10.7% -18.4%

EBIT margin 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 1.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% -0.3 -0.2

Net profit 10.1 21.6 8.3 7.9 9.3 16.8 6.2 9.5 13.1 21.2 10.6 12.4 10.7 -17.8% -13.6%

Net margin 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% -0.3 -0.1


ABC Data: 3Q14 results preview PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated


Sales 752 1,304 760 742 892 1,300 1,089 1,096 1,212 1,425 1,169 1,391 1,345 10.9% -3.3%

EBITDA 11.7 19.3 13.2 8.0 9.5 28.1 16.9 14.9 19.5 28.3 12.7 22.5 18.2 -6.5% -18.8%

EBITDA margin 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.6% 1.4% -0.3 -0.3

EBIT 10.4 18.3 12.3 7.3 8.7 27.3 16.3 14.4 18.9 27.6 12.2 21.9 17.7 -6.3% -19.1%

EBIT margin 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% -0.2 -0.3

Net profit 6.4 29.5 6.4 0.2 5.0 19.5 11.0 14.3 14.2 19.7 6.8 11.2 11.2 -21.2% 0.3%

Net margin 0.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% -0.3 0.0


Research analyst:

Lukasz Kosiarski +48 22 586 8225; [email protected]

Polish Equity Research

2

Fig. 1. IT Distribution: 3Q14 results previews summary, DM BZWBK perception of 3Q14 results PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

DM BZWBK perception Company Sales EBITDA EBIT Net profit Publication date

POSITIVE Action 1,333 24 21 15 November 14 NEGATIVE AB 1,428 19 16 11 November 14 NEGATIVE ABC Data 1,345 18 18 11 November 10 Source: DM BZ WBK estimates

Fig. 2. IT Distribution: Changes to valuations & recommendations

Company Recommendation 12M Target Price current previous change new old chng. %

Action Buy Buy ► 69.7 69.7 0% AB Buy Buy ► 43.0 39.0 10% ABC Data Hold Sell ▲ 4.1 4.0 3%

Source: DM BZ WBK estimates

Fig. 3. Action: Forecasts changes PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2014E 2015E 2016E

New Previous Change New Previous Change New Previous Change

Sales 5,640 5,610 1% 6,619 6,619 0% 7,396 7,396 0%

EBITDA 109.7 112.4 -2% 134.9 134.6 0% 143.4 143.1 0%

EBIT 98.2 100.9 -3% 118.2 117.9 0% 126.8 126.4 0%

Net profit 72.5 76.0 -5% 89.6 89.3 0% 97.2 97.0 0% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

Fig. 4. AB: Forecasts changes PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2014/15E 2015/16E 2016/17E


Sales 5,698 5,634 1% 6,030 5,900 2% 6,274 6,180 2%

EBITDA 94.7 88.2 7% 99.3 95.2 4% 103.5 99.7 4%

EBIT 84.7 77.3 10% 86.8 82.7 5% 90.1 86.3 4%

Net profit 58.1 52.1 11% 59.4 55.3 7% 60.9 56.9 7% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

Fig. 5. ABC Data: Forecasts changes PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2014E 2015E 2016E

New Previuos Change New Previuos Change New Previuos Change

Sales 5,787 5,314 9% 5,924 5,924 0% 6,267 6,267 0%

EBITDA 86.6 89.2 -3% 96.5 96.5 0% 101.6 101.6 0%

EBIT 84.4 87.1 -3% 93.8 93.8 0% 98.8 98.8 0%

Net profit 51.5 65.3 -21% 67.5 70.0 -4% 71.1 73.5 -3% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

Throughout the report we use share prices as of October 21, 2014


3

Poland IT Distribution

OCTOBER 23, 2014

ACTION RECOMMENDATION

BUY (MAINTAINED)

In line with official guidance CURRENT PRICE: PLN46.05

TARGET PRICE: PLN69.7 (MAINTAINED)

3Q14 Results Preview. Most of the growth in 3Q14 sales

at Action, as was the case in the previous quarter, should

come from operations abroad. For 3Q14, we expect export

sales to expand by 42% y/y and the domestic sales, in line

with the market, by 3% y/y. Overall, we expect the

company’s sales at PLN1.33bn (+17% y/y). We see the

gross margin at 6.10% vs. 6.02% in 3Q13 and estimate the

SG&A costs at PLN59.0mn (SG&A/sales ratio at 4.43%).

The EBIT should reach PLN21.3mn and the net profit

PLN15.7m (+12% y/y, net margin at 1.17%). Outcome:

POSITIVE.

Recent developments. The company has recently signed

two large contracts for hardware shipments with science

universities in Krakow and Gdynia worth PLN41.0mn and

PLN30.6mn, respectively. CEO Mr. Piotr Bielinski recently

sold 150k shares at PLN47/share. According to his

statement, the cash will be used to capitalise game

developer Action Game Labs (Action 40% subsidiary).

2014 guidance. The company sees its 2014 revenues at

PLN5.45bn and the net profit at PLN70.9mn. 1H14 results

account for 46% of the forecasted FY14 sales and 47% on

the net level. Our forecasts for 2014 are higher than the

guidance by 3% both on the top-line and the net level..

Change in Forecasts. We have implemented some minor

changes to our model.

Change in Valuation & Recommendation. We keep our

12-month Target Price for Action at PLN69.7 despite the

change in the risk-free rate, time passage and small

forecast changes. The Target Price implies a 51% upside

potential vs. the current price, which causes us to maintain

our Buy rating for the stock. The comparative valuation

points to PLN39.40 per share.

PUBLICATION DATE

NOVEMBER 14, 2014

3Q14 RESULTS PREVIEW

3Q14E y/y (%) q/q (%)

Sales 1,333 17% 11%

EBITDA 23.8 13% -1%

EBIT 21.3 14% -1%

Net profit 15.7 12% -2%

STOCK PERFORMANCE

The chart measures performance against the WIG index.

On 10/21/2014, the WIG index closed at 53,214.

LAST RECOMMENDATIONS

Rec. Date Price Price performance

on issue date

12 month target

absolute relative (p.p)

Buy 7-9-2014 43.0 69.7 4.7% 1.3

Buy 4-28-2014 46.9 65.0 -8.3% -6.6

Buy 1-30-2014 49.0 69.0 -4.3% -6.6

Buy 10-23-2013 57.2 69.0 -14.3% -8.8

COMPANY DESCRIPTION

One of the largest IT distribution company in Poland.

ANALYST

Lukasz Kosiarski (+48) 22 586 82 25

[email protected]

Company Data

PLNm 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Reuters/Bloomberg codes ACT.WA / ACT PW

Sales 4,749 5,640 6,619 7,396 Market capitalisation (PLNm) 764

EBITDA 91 110 135 143 Number of shares (m) 16.6

EBIT 82 98 118 127 Free float (%) 53.2%

Net income 62 73 90 97 Avg. daily turnover 3M (PLNm) 0.6

P/E (x) 12.9 10.9 8.9 8.2 Price performance

1M 3M YTD

EV/EBITDA (x) 9.5 7.9 6.4 6.1 -2.1% 9.1% -4.2% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

ACT

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Buy Hold Sell Under Review / Suspended

mailto:[email protected]


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Action: 3Q14 results preview PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated


Sales 669 1,023 788 752 827 1,148 1,132 989 1,140 1,488 1,324 1,197 1,333 16.9% 11.3%

EBITDA 16.5 24.0 18.0 16.9 18.8 25.9 22.6 21.1 21.1 26.6 25.8 24.1 23.8 12.6% -1.3%

EBITDA margin 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% -0.1 -0.2

EBIT 13.7 21.0 15.1 14.0 16.0 23.1 20.3 18.8 18.7 24.2 23.5 21.6 21.3 13.8% -1.4%

EBIT margin 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0 -0.2

Net profit 10.1 15.0 11.1 9.3 11.0 16.8 15.0 13.3 14.0 19.3 17.3 15.9 15.7 12.0% -1.5%

Net margin 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% -0.1 -0.2


Action: Forecasts changes PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2014E 2015E 2016E


Sales 5,640 5,610 1% 6,619 6,619 0% 7,396 7,396 0%

EBITDA 109.7 112.4 -2% 134.9 134.6 0% 143.4 143.1 0%

EBIT 98.2 100.9 -3% 118.2 117.9 0% 126.8 126.4 0%

Net profit 72.5 76.0 -5% 89.6 89.3 0% 97.2 97.0 0% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

Action: Valuation changes In PLN per share, unless otherwise stated

New Previous Change

DCF valuation 69.7 69.7 0%

Comparable valuation (based on 2014-2016E) 39.4 45.3 -13% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

Action: Income statement forecast PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Net sales 3,515 4,749 5,640 6,619 7,396

COGS 3,288 4,452 5,293 6,220 6,957

Gross profit 226.8 297.1 347.8 399.2 439.1

SG&A 158.5 210.5 247.9 279.3 310.7

Other operating income, net 0.0 -4.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7

EBITDA 79.6 91.4 109.7 134.9 143.4

Operating profit 68.3 82.1 98.2 118.2 126.8

Net financial income (costs) -7.3 -5.2 -7.2 -7.7 -6.7

Profit before tax 60.9 76.9 91.0 110.6 120.0

Income tax 12.7 16.1 18.5 21.0 22.8

Net profit 48.3 61.6 72.5 89.6 97.2

Gross margin 6.5% 6.3% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9%

EBITDA margin 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9%

Operating margin 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7%

Net profit margin 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3%


Action: Balance sheet forecast PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Current assets 763 1,021 1,090 1,157 1,229

Fixed assets 138 151 182 171 159

Total assets 901 1,172 1,273 1,328 1,389

Current liabilities 636 854 902 952 1,011

bank debt 107 107 107 107 107

Long-term liabilities 5 23 55 55 56

bank debt 0 20 50 50 50

Equity 260 295 316 320 322

share capital 2 2 2 2 2

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0

Total liabilities 901 1,172 1,273 1,328 1,389

Net debt 99 44 143 160 178


Action: Cash flow forecast PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

CF from operations 14.7 102.4 -24.4 13.2 2.0

CF from investment -5.9 -21.9 -43.3 -5.3 -4.8

CF from financing -9.3 -6.0 -0.7 -25.6 -15.1

Net change in cash -0.5 74.5 -68.4 -17.6 -17.9



5


OCTOBER 23, 2014

AB RECOMMENDATION

BUY (MAINTAINED)

Negative earnings dynamics CURRENT PRICE: PLN29.66

TARGET PRICE: PLN43.0 (PREV. PLN39.0)

1Q14/15 Results Preview. We expect that AB continued

its top-line improvement in 1Q14/15, although its earning

may prove to be a small disappointment. We expect that in

the Czech Republic and Slovakia AB kept its strong

dynamics, driven by the distribution agreement with Apple.

In Poland, we expect a 4% y/y sales expansion. We expect

the gross margin at 3.95% vs. 3.90% in 1Q13/14. We also

forecast a visible increase in SG&A costs - PLN40.1mn vs.

PLN29.5mn in 1Q13/14 (SG&A/sales ratio at 2.81%). We

assume revenues of PLN1.43bn (+13.7% y/y), an EBITDA

of PLN19.4mn. The net profit should settle at PLN10.7mn

(net margin at 0.75%). Outcome: NEGATIVE.

Recent developments. The company mulls paying a

dividend and a launch of a buyback tender offer. The

company has recently completed a PLN100mn 2019 bond

issue priced Wibor6M + 1.6%.

Outlook. During its last results’ presentation, AB said that

it saw signs of market improvement in the Czech Republic,

mainly in the enterprise sector but also in the public sector.

Change in Forecasts. We applied some minor changes to

our model.

Change in Valuation & Recommendation. We have

increased our 12-month Target Price for AB to PLN43.0

from PLN39.0 on the back of time passage, decrease of

the RFR to 3.2% from 4.0% previously and a small

upgrade of forecasts. The Target Price implies a 45%

upside potential vs. current price, which causes us to

maintain our Buy rating for the stock. The comparative

valuation points to PLN29.2 per share

PUBLICATION DATE

NOVEMBER 14, 2014

1Q14/15 RESULTS PREVIEW

1Q14/15E y/y (%) q/q (%)

Sales 1,428 14% -6%

EBITDA 19.4 -6% -16%

EBIT 16.2 -11% -18%

Net profit 10.7 -18% -14%

STOCK PERFORMANCE





on issue date

12 month target


Buy 7-9-2014 29.9 39.0 -2.9% -6.3

Hold 4-28-2014 29.1 35.0 2.7% 4.4

Hold 1-30-2014 33.7 35.0 -13.6% -15.9

Buy 10-23-2013 28.8 35.0 17.2% 22.8

COMPANY DESCRIPTION

One of the largest IT distribution company in Poland and the Czech Republic.

ANALYST


[email protected]

Company Data

PLNm 2013/14E 2014/15E 2015/16E 2016/17E Reuters/Bloomberg codes ABEP.WA / ABE PW


EBITDA 96.0 100.0 104.1 108.4 Number of shares (m) 16.2

EBIT 85.3 87.4 90.7 94.6 Free float (%) 79.1%

Net income 57.3 60.6 62.0 64.1 Avg. daily turnover 3M (PLNm) 0.2


1M 3M YTD

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.6 -6.1% 6.9% -4.6% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

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AB: 1Q14/15 results preview PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

1Q11/12 2Q11/12 3Q11/12 4Q11/12 1Q12/13 2Q12/13 3Q12/13 4Q12/13 1Q13/14 2Q13/14 3Q13/14 4Q13/14 1Q14/15E y/y q/q

Sales 944 1,429 1,001 963 1,123 1,730 1,355 1,306 1,256 1,637 1,348 1,517 1,428 13.7% -5.9%

EBITDA 24.2 36.7 13.8 16.9 14.3 28.4 15.2 16.2 20.6 33.5 18.8 23.1 19.4 -5.8% -15.7%

EBITDA margin 2.6% 2.6% 1.4% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% -0.3 -0.2

EBIT 21.8 34.0 11.6 14.1 11.9 25.8 12.6 13.8 18.2 31.0 16.3 19.9 16.2 -10.7% -18.4%

EBIT margin 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 1.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% -0.3 -0.2

Net profit 10.1 21.6 8.3 7.9 9.3 16.8 6.2 9.5 13.1 21.2 10.6 12.4 10.7 -17.8% -13.6%

Net margin 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% -0.3 -0.1


AB: Forecasts changes PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2014/15E 2015/16E 2016/17E


Sales 6,092 6,030 1% 6,339 6,274 1% 6,596 6,529 1%

EBITDA 100.0 99.3 1% 104.1 103.5 1% 108.4 107.9 0%

EBIT 87.4 86.8 1% 90.7 90.1 1% 94.6 94.1 1%

Net profit 60.6 59.4 2% 62.0 60.9 2% 64.1 63.0 2% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

AB: Valuation changes In PLN per share, unless otherwise stated

New Previous Change


Comparable valuation (based on 2013/14-2015/16E) 29.2 32.2 -9% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

AB: Income statement forecast PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15E 2015/16E 2016/17E

Net sales 5,430 5,758 6,092 6,339 6,596

COGS 5,220 5,484 5,839 6,075 6,322

Gross profit 210.0 273.7 252.9 263.5 274.5

SG&A 139.3 161.2 165.5 172.8 179.9

Other operating income, net -6.6 -27.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBITDA 74.2 96.0 100.0 104.1 108.4




Income tax 10.3 16.4 14.2 14.5 15.0

Net profit 41.7 57.3 60.6 62.0 64.1

Gross margin 3.9% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%

EBITDA margin 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%




AB: Balance sheet forecast PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15E 2015/16E 2016/17E

Current assets 1,002 1,091 1,213 1,306 1,393

Fixed assets 166 168 185 179 173

Total assets 1,167 1,260 1,398 1,485 1,565

Current liabilities 741 791 868 893 921

bank debt 211 195 195 195 195


bank debt 0 0 0 0 0

Equity 421 464 524 586 638

share capital 16 16 16 16 16


Total liabilities 1,167 1,260 1,398 1,485 1,565

Net debt 199 149 161 160 125


AB: Cash flow forecast PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15E 2015/16E 2016/17E

CF from operations 0.9 77.8 16.3 8.5 54.9


CF from financing 0.0 26.4 0.0 0.0 -12.4

Net change in cash -4.0 90.8 -13.0 1.1 35.3



7


OCTOBER 23, 2014

ABC DATA RECOMMENDATION

HOLD (PREV. SELL)

2014 guidance under threat CURRENT PRICE: PLN3.63

TARGET PRICE: PLN4.10 (PREV. 4.00)

3Q14 Results Preview. We expect the company to report

similar results to those for 2Q14, which means further

improvement on the top-line but also lower earnings y/y.

The majority of growth will come from export sales, we

expect domestic sales to expand at a moderate 5%. The

gross margin should settle at 4.70% vs. 4.46% in 3Q13.

The SG&A (PLN46.5mn vs. PLN36.4mn in 3Q13) should

account for 3.46% of sales. We see revenues at

PLN1.35bn, the EBITDA at PLN18.6mn and the net profit

at PLN11.2mn (net margin at 0.8%). Outcome:

NEGATIVE.

Recent developments. Mrs. Ilona Weiss, deputy CEO, will

replace Mr. Norbert Biedrzycki as CEO on 1 January,

2015.

2014 guidance. The company sees its 2014 revenues at

PLN5.76bn and the EBITDA at PLN92.07mn. 1H14 results

account for 44% of the forecasted FY14 sales and 38% on

the EBITDA level. Our forecasts for 2014 are marginally

higher on the top-line and 6% on the EBITDA level. We

suspect the company may revise its forecasts in 3Q13

report.

Change in Forecasts. We applied minor changes to our

estimates..

Change in Valuation & Recommendation. We have

increased our 12-month Target Price for ABC Data to

PLN4.1 from PLN4.0 on the back of time passage,

decrease of the RFR to 3.2% from 4.0% previously and a

small upgrade of forecasts. The Target Price implies a 13%

upside potential vs. current price, causes us to raise our

rating for the stock to Hold from Sell. The comparative

valuation points to PLN3.76 per share

PUBLICATION DATE

NOVEMBER 10, 2014

3Q14 RESULTS PREVIEW

3Q14E y/y (%) q/q (%)

Sales 1,345 11% -3%

EBITDA 18.2 -6% -19%

EBIT 17.7 -6% -19%

Net profit 11.2 -21% 0%

STOCK PERFORMANCE





on issue date

12 month target


Sell 4-28-2014 3.9 3.9 6.4% 5.6

Sell 1-30-2014 4.1 3.9 -5.1% -7.4

Sell 10-23-2013 3.9 3.9 5.1% 10.6

Sell 9-23-2013 4.2 3.9 -6.6% -13.5

Hold 7-23-2013 3.4 3.5 23.4% 16.5

COMPANY DESCRIPTION

One of the largest IT distribution company in Poland.

ANALYST


[email protected]

Company Data

PLNm 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Reuters/Bloomberg codes ABCP.WA / ABC PW


EBITDA 79.6 86.6 96.5 101.6 Number of shares (m) 125.3

EBIT 77.2 84.4 93.8 98.8 Free float (%) 37.2%

Net income 59.2 51.5 67.5 71.1 Avg. daily turnover 3M (PLNm) 0.2


1M 3M YTD

EV/EBITDA (x) 9.2 9.6 8.5 8.1 -7.4% -12.1% -15.3% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

ABC

TP

WIG Relative

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

Sep

-11

De

c-1

1

Mar-

12

Ju

n-1

2

Sep

-12

De

c-1

2

Mar-

13

Ju

n-1

3

Sep

-13

De

c-1

3

Mar-

14

Ju

n-1

4

Sep

-14




8

ABC Data: 3Q14 results preview PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated


Sales 752 1,304 760 742 892 1,300 1,089 1,096 1,212 1,425 1,169 1,391 1,345 10.9% -3.3%

EBITDA 11.7 19.3 13.2 8.0 9.5 28.1 16.9 14.9 19.5 28.3 12.7 22.5 18.2 -6.5% -18.8%

EBITDA margin 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.6% 1.4% -0.3 -0.3

EBIT 10.4 18.3 12.3 7.3 8.7 27.3 16.3 14.4 18.9 27.6 12.2 21.9 17.7 -6.3% -19.1%

EBIT margin 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% -0.2 -0.3

Net profit 6.4 29.5 6.4 0.2 5.0 19.5 11.0 14.3 14.2 19.7 6.8 11.2 11.2 -21.2% 0.3%

Net margin 0.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% -0.3 0.0


ABC Data: Forecasts changes PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2014E 2015E 2016E

New Previuos Change New Previuos Change New Previuos Change

Sales 5,787 5,314 9% 5,924 5,924 0% 6,267 6,267 0%

EBITDA 86.6 89.2 -3% 96.5 96.5 0% 101.6 101.6 0%

EBIT 84.4 87.1 -3% 93.8 93.8 0% 98.8 98.8 0%

Net profit 51.5 65.3 -21% 67.5 70.0 -4% 71.1 73.5 -3% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

ABC Data: Valuation changes In PLN per share, unless otherwise stated

New Previous Change


Comparable valuation (based on 2014-2016E) 3.76 4.67 -19% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates

ABC Data: Income statement forecast PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Net sales 3,693 4,822 5,787 5,924 6,267

COGS 3,509 4,596 5,514 5,650 5,977

Gross profit 183.8 226.5 272.4 273.9 289.5

SG&A 132.8 151.0 193.0 180.1 190.7

Other operating income, net 4.6 1.7 5.0 0.0 0.0

EBITDA 58.8 79.6 86.6 96.5 101.6




Income tax 9.0 8.9 21.6 15.8 16.7

Net profit 31.1 59.2 51.5 67.5 71.1

Gross margin 5.0% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

EBITDA margin 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%




ABC Data: Balance sheet forecast PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Current assets 824 842 1,023 1,077 1,164

Fixed assets 73 75 81 86 88

Total assets 896 917 1,104 1,163 1,252

Current liabilities 587 600 781 817 875

bank debt 112 141 230 253 278


bank debt 20 0 0 0 0

Equity 288 316 322 345 375

share capital 125 125 125 125 125


Total liabilities 896 917 1,104 1,163 1,252

Net debt 118 124 221 217 219


ABC Data: Cash flow forecast PLN in millions, unless otherwise stated

2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

CF from operations 73.7 30.1 -43.1 56.8 43.3


CF from financing -67.6 -22.7 44.1 -22.1 -15.2

Net change in cash 4.3 3.3 -7.4 26.6 23.7



9

Dom Maklerski BZ WBK S.A.

Jan Pawel II Avenue 17 00-854 Warszawa

fax. (+48) 22 586 81 09

Equity Research Department

Pawel Puchalski, CFA, Head tel. (+48) 22 586 80 95 [email protected] Telecommunications, Metals & Mining, Power

Dariusz Gorski, Deputy Head tel. (+48) 22 586 81 00 [email protected] Strategy, Banks, Media

Tomasz Kasowicz tel. (+48) 22 586 81 55 [email protected] Oil&Gas, Chemicals

Tomasz Sokolowski tel. (+48) 22 586 82 36 [email protected] Pharma, Retail

Adrian Kyrcz tel. (+48) 22 586 81 59 [email protected] Construction, Real Estate

Lukasz Kosiarski tel. (+48) 22 586 82 25 [email protected] Media, IT, IT distribution, Video Games, Health Care

Andrzej Bieniek, Securities Broker, Investment Adviser tel. (+48) 22 586 85 21 [email protected] Financials

Tomasz Kucinski tel. (+48) 22 534 16 10 [email protected] Industrials

Michal Sopiel tel. (+48) 22 586 82 33 [email protected] Wood, Quantitative Analysis

Sales & Trading Department

Piotr Zagan, Head tel. (+48) 22 586 80 84 [email protected] Wojciech Wosko, Securities Broker tel. (+48) 22 586 80 82 [email protected] Kamil Cislo, Securities Broker tel. (+48) 22 586 80 90 [email protected] Grzegorz Kolodziejczyk, Securities Broker tel. (+48) 22 586 81 93 [email protected] Blazej Leskow, Securities Broker tel. (+48) 22 586 80 83 [email protected] Marcin Kuciapski, Securities Broker tel. (+48) 22 586 80 96 [email protected] Marek Wardzynski, Securities Broker tel. (+48) 22 586 80 87 [email protected] Alex Kaminski tel. (+48) 22 586 80 63 [email protected] Robert Chudala tel. (+48) 22 586 85 14 [email protected]


10

LIMITATION OF LIABILITY This material was produced by BZ WBK Brokerage S.A. (BZ WBK Brokerage), entity that is subject to the regulations of the Act on Trading in Financial Instruments dated July 29th 2005 (Journal of Laws of 2010, No.211 item 1384 - consolidated text, further amended), Act on Public Offering, Conditions Governing the Introduction of Financial Instruments to Organised Trading, and Public Companies dated July 29th 2005 (Journal of Laws of 2009, No.185 item 1439 - consolidated text, further amended), Act on Capital Market Supervision dated July 29th 2005 (Journal of Laws of 2005, No.183 item 1537 further amended). It is addressed to qualified investors and professional clients as defined under the above indicated regulations and to Clients of BZ WBK Brokerage entitled to gain recommendations based on the brokerage services agreements. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or service marks of BZ WBK Brokerage or entities belonging to BZ WBK. BZ WBK Brokerage is an author of this document. All copyrights belong to BZ WBK Brokerage. This document may not be reproduced or published, in part or in whole, without a prior written consent of BZ WBK Brokerage. BZ WBK Brokerage may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor. BZ WBK Brokerage will not treat recipients of this report as its customers by virtue of their receiving this report. The investments and services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for particular investor and it is recommended to consult an independent investment advisor in case of doubts about such investments or investment services. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to investor’s individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to particular investor. Whenever the document refers to "the Issuer" shall mean the company / companies which is / are the subject of the recommendations referred to in this document. In the case where recommendation refers to several companies, the name “Issuer” will apply to all of them. Affiliates of BZ WBK Brokerage may, from time to time, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in financing transactions with Issuer, perform services for or solicit business from such Issuer and/or have a position or effect transactions in the financial instruments issued by the Issuer (“financial instruments”). BZ WBK Brokerage may, to the extent permitted by applicable Polish law, UK law and other applicable law or regulation, effect transactions in the Financial instruments before this material is published to recipients. This document is valid at the time of its preparation and may change. BZ WBK Brokerage may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and BZ WBK Brokerage is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. BZ WBK Brokerage informs that success in past recommendations is not a guarantee of success in future ones. Points of view expressed in the reports reflect Analyst personal opinion on the analysed company and its securities. With the exception of remuneration from the BZ WBK Brokerage, Analysts do not receive any other form of compensation for recommendations made. The sources of the data include WSE, PAP, Reuters, Bloomberg, EPFR, GUS /Central Statistical Office/, NBP /National Bank of Poland/, BZ WBK Brokerage, Akcje.net, financial periodicals and business and finance websites. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or gathered by BZ WBK Brokerage from sources believed to be reliable, however BZ WBK Brokerage and its affiliates shall have no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect of any inaccuracy in or omission from this document prepared by BZ WBK Brokerage or sent by BZ WBK Brokerage to any person. Any such person shall be responsible for conducting his own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the Financial instruments forming the subject matter of this or other such document. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without any notice. BZ WBK Brokerage is not responsible for damages resulting from placing orders based on this document. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or carry out transactions in any financial instruments and shall not be considered as an offer to sell or to buy any securities. This document is furnished and presented to you solely for your information and shall not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document or any copy hereof shall not be distributed directly or indirectly in the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan or to any citizen or resident of the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan where its distribution may be restricted by law. Its distribution may be restricted by law in other countries. Persons who distribute this document shall make themselves aware of and adhere to any such restrictions. To any us person or to any person in the united kingdom other than an authorised person or exempted person or any other person falling within articles 19(5), 38, 47 and 49 of the financial services and markets act 2000 (financial promotion) order 2001. Opinions in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorised or approved by issuer the opinions expressed herein are solely those of BZ WBK Brokerage. BZ WBK Brokerage informs that investing assets in financial instruments implies the risk of losing part or all the invested assets. BZ WBK Brokerage indicates that the price of the financial instruments is influenced by lots of different factors, which are or cannot be dependent from issuer and its business results. These are factors such as changing economical, law, political or tax condition. More information on financial instruments and risk connected with them can be found on www.dmbzwbk.pl, section disclaimers and risk. The decision to purchase any of the financial instruments should be made only on the basis of the prospectus, offering circular or other documents and materials which are published on general release on the basis of polish law. Overweight / Underweight / Neutral – means that, according to the authors of this document, the stock price may perform better/worse/neutrally than the WIG20 index in a given month. When particular stocks are marked with Overweight / Underweight / Neutral - such information should not be construed as investment recommendation concerning a given financial instrument. The recommendation system of BZ WBK Brokerage is based on determination of target prices and their relations to current prices of financial instruments; in addition, when recommendations are addressed to a wide range of recipients, two methods of valuation are required. Overweight / Underweight / Neutral information contained herein does not meet any of the aforementioned requirements. Furthermore, depending on the situation, it can be grounds for taking different (including opposing) investment act ion in the case of particular investors. Mid-caps – if a stock is included into a mid-cap portfolio it means that, according to the authors of this document, a particular stock price may outperform the WIG20 index during one month. When stocks are indicated as mid-caps, any information concerning such portfolio as well as indicated stocks should not be construed as investment recommendations. Stocks are added to or deleted from the list on the basis of the requirement to rotate the stocks included in the list. Stocks included in the mid-caps list do not meet the aforementioned requirements of the recommendation system of BZ WBK Brokerage. Furthermore, depending on the situation, such information can be grounds for taking different (including opposing) investment action in the case of particular investors. Any change in weight of stocks already included in the portfolio should not be construed as investment recommendation. Such changes are aimed exclusively at making the total weight of all stocks equal 100%. Persons involved in selecting stocks to compose the mid-caps portfolio can sell such stocks on the WSE if a given stock is included in the list for longer than one month. BZ WBK Brokerage confirms that the adjustment for dividend paid, adjustment for preemptive rights, share split or merger, or any other purely technical adjustments to the share price will result in corresponding changes in the stocks’ target prices - such situations must be considered within purely technical context and should not be considered as changes to recommendations in the meaning of the law. Explanations of special terminology used in the recommendation: EBIT – earnings before interest and tax EBITDA – earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization P/E – price-earnings ratio EV – enterprise value (market capitalisation plus net debt) PEG - P/E to growth ratio EPS - earnings per share CPI – consumer price index WACC - weighted average cost of capital CAGR – cumulative average annual growth P/CE – price to cash earnings (net profit plus depreciation and amortisation) ratio NOPAT – net operational profit after taxation FCF - free cash flows BV – book value ROE – return on equity P/BV – price-book value Recommendation definitions: Buy - indicates a stock's total return to exceed more than 15% over the next twelve months. Hold - indicates a stock's total return to be in range of 0%-15% over the next twelve months. Sell - indicates a stock's total return to be less than 0% over the next twelve months. In the opinion of BZ WBK Brokerage, this document has been prepared with all due diligence and excludes any conflict of interests which could influence its content. BZ WBK Brokerage is not obliged to take any actions which could cause financial instruments that are the subject of the valuation contained in this document to be valued by the market in accordance with the valuation contained in this document. BZ WBK Brokerage is subject to the supervision of the Financial Supervision Commission and this document has been prepared within the legal scope of the activity of BZ WBK Brokerage. The date on the first page of this report is the date of preparation and publication of the document. Any person who accepts this document agrees to be bound by the foregoing disclaimer and limitations. BZ WBK Brokerage with its registered office in Poznan, Pl. Wolnosci 15, 60 - 967 Poznan, registered by the District Court in Poznan – Nowe Miasto i Wilda, Division VIII Commercial of the National Court Register under the number KRS 0000006408, Taxpayer Identification No. 778-13-59-968, with share capital amounting to PLN 44 973 500 fully paid up . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLOSURES This report contains recommendations referring to company/companies: AB S.A., ABC Data S.A., Action S.A., ASBISc Enterprises PLC („Issuer”). BZ WBK Brokerage emphasizes that this document is going to be updated at least once a year. This document has not been disclosed to Issuer.

http://www.dmbzwbk.pl/


11

In preparing this document BZ WBK Brokerage applied at least two of the following valuation methods: 1) discounted cash flows (DCF), 2) comparative, 3) mid-cycle, 4) dividend discount model (DDM), 5) residual income, 6) warranted equity method (WEV), 7) SOTP valuation, 8) liquidation value.

The discounted cash flows (DCF) valuation method is based on expected future discounted cash flows. One advantage of the DCF valuation method is that it takes into account all cash streams reaching Issuer and the cost of money over time. Some disadvantages of the DCF valuation method are that a large number of parameters and assumptions need to be estimated; and the valuation is sensitive to changes in those parameters. The comparative valuation method is based on the economic rule of "one price". Some advantages of the comparative valuation method are that the analyst need only estimate a

small number of parameters; the valuation is based on current market conditions; the relatively large accessibility of indicators for companies being compared; and that there is an extensive knowledge of the comparative method among investors. Some disadvantages of valuation by the comparative method are the considerable sensitivity of the results of the valuation on the choice of companies to the comparative group; the method can lead to a simplification of the picture of the company which in turn can lead to omitting certain important factors (e.g. growth dynamics, extra-operational assets, corporate governance, the repeatability of results, differences in applied accounting standards); and the uncertainty of the effectiveness of a market valuation of companies being compared. The mid-cycle valuation is based on long-term averages for the two-year forward consensus P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples for the members of the peer group. The methodology is

aimed calculating a fair, through the cycle value of cyclical stocks. Among its shortfalls is that at peaks and/or troughs of the cycle, the implied fair value may deviate substantially from the market’s value of an analysed stock as well as the methods’ reliance on the quality of external data (we use Bloomberg consensus here). Simplicity and average through-cycle value allowing to capture over as well as under-valuation of a given stock are the main advantages of this methodology. The dividend discount model (DDM) valuation is based on the net present value of the future dividends that are expected to be paid out by the company. Some advantages of the

DDM valuation method are that it takes into account real cash flows to equity-owners and that the methodology is used in respect to companies with long dividend payout history. Main disadvantage of the DDM valuation method is that dividend payouts are based on a large number of parameters and assumptions, including dividend payout ratio. Residual income method is conceptually close to the discounted cash flows method (DCF) for non-financial stocks, the difference being that it is based on expected residual income (returns over COE) rather than expected future cash flows. One advantage of this valuation method is that it captures the excess of profit potentially available to shareholders and the cost of money over time. Main disadvantage of the valuation method is that a large number of parameters and assumptions need to be estimated; and the valuation is sensitive to changes in those parameters. The warranted equity method (WEV) is based on the formula P/BV = (two year forward ROE less sustainable growth rate)/ (Cost of equity less sustainable growth rate) which allows estimating a fair value (FV) of a given stock in two years time. Subsequently the FV is discounted back to today. The main advantage of the WEV method is that it is a transparent one and based on relatively short term forecasts, hence substantially reducing the margin of forecasting error. The main disadvantage in our view is that the model is based on the principle that stock price should converge towards its fair value implied by company’s ROE and COE. SOTP valuation - different assets of a company are being valued according to different valuation methods, and the sum of these valuations represents the final valuation of the company. SOTP valuation advantages / disadvantages are identical to advantages and disadvantages of the specific valuation methods used. Liquidation value method – liquidation value is the estimated amount of money that an asset or company could be quickly sold for, such as if it were to go out of business. Then, the estimated assets value is adjusted for liabilities and liquidation expenses. One advantage of this valuation method is its simplicity. This method does not account for intangible assets as goodwill, which is the main disadvantage. Over the last three months BZ WBK Brokerage issued 24 Buy recommendations, 4 Hold recommendations and 4 Sell recommendations.

% of Companies

Rating Covered with This Rating Provided with Investment Banking in Past 12M

Buy 60,32 13,16

Hold 15,87 30,00

Sell 17,46 18,18

Under Review 6,35 25,00

Definition of each rating was provided in the above section Limitation of liability. The Stock performance charts in this report include line graphs of the securities’ daily closing prices for one year period. Information relating to a longer period (max 3 years) is available upon request. The Issuer does not hold shares of BZ WBK Brokerage. Neither members of the Issuer’s authorities nor their relatives are members of the management board or supervisory board of BZ WBK Brokerage. No person engaged in preparing the report or his/her relative is the member of the Issuer’s authorities and holds management position in this entity, and none of those persons or their relatives are parties to any agreement with the Issuer, which would be concluded on different basis than agreements between Issuer and consumers. Person engaged in preparing the report did not acquire shares of the Issuer before its public offering. Among those, who prepared this document, as well as among those who didn’t prepare it but had or might have had the access to it, there are no such individuals who hold shares of the Issuer or financial instruments whose value is connected with the value of the financial instruments issued by the Issuer. BZ WBK Group, its affiliates, representatives or employees may occasionally undertake transactions or may be interested in acquiring securities of companies directly or indirectly related to those being analysed During the last 12 months BZ WBK Brokerage has not been a party to agreements relating to the offering of financial instruments issued by Issuer and connected with the price of financial instruments issued by Issuer. During the last 12 months BZ WBK Brokerage has not been a member of syndicate for financial instruments issued by Issuer. BZ WBK Brokerage did not buy or sell any financial instruments issued by the Issuer on its own account, in order to realize investment subissue or service agreements. BZ WBK Brokerage acts as market maker, on principles specified in the Regulations of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, for the shares of ABC Data S.A. BZ WBK Brokerage acts as issuer’s market maker, on principles specified in the Regulations of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, for the shares of ABC Data S.A., Action S.A. BZ WBK Brokerage does not buy or sell any financial instruments of the Issuer on its own account in order to perform other tasks related to the organization of the regulated market. Both BZ WBK and BZ WBK Brokerage which are associated are not parties to the agreement with the Issuer related to issuing recommendations. During the last 12 months BZ WBK Brokerage has received remuneration for acting as issuer’s market maker and managing the managerial scheme for ABC Data S.A., Action S.A. and for managing the deposit of shares for ABC Data S.A. BZ WBK Brokerage does not hold shares of the Issuer or any financial instruments of the Issuer being the subject of this document, in the amount reaching at least 5% of the share capital. BZ WBK, which is connected with BZ WBK Brokerage, is indirectly connected with AB S.A., ABC Data S.A., Action S.A. BZ WBK Brokerage does not rule out that in the period of preparing this document any Affiliate of BZ WBK Brokerage might purchase shares of the Issuer or any financial instruments being the subject of this document which may cause reaching at least 5% of the share capital. BZ WBK Group has hold, in the period of preparing this document, shares of AB S.A., ABC Data S.A., Action S.A., in the amount reaching at least 1% of the share capital. Subject to the above, the Issuer is not bound by any contractual relationship with BZ WBK Brokerage, which might influence the objectivity of the recommendations contained in this document. BZ WBK Brokerage does not hold, directly or indirectly, financial instruments issued by the Issuer or financial instruments whose value depends on the value of financial instruments issued by the Issuer (except on the basis of being market maker and issuer’s market maker). However, it cannot be ruled out that, in the period of the next twelve months or the period in which this document is in force, BZ WBK Brokerage will submit an offer to provide services for the Issuer or will purchase or dispose of financial instruments issued by the Issuer or whose value depends on the value of financial instruments issued by the Issuer. Except for broker agreements with clients under which BZ WBK Brokerage sells and buys the shares of the Issuer at the order of its clients, BZ WBK Brokerage is not party to any agreement which would depend on the valuation of the financial instruments discussed in this document. Remuneration received by the persons who prepare this document may be dependent, in an indirect way, from financial results gained from investment banking transactions, related to financial instruments issued by the Issuer, made by BZ WBK Brokerage or its Affiliates.

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