37549673 Demand Forecasting of Cadbury Dairymilk

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13 SHARADA KUSANALE 14 HIMANI LAPASIA 15 ANISHA LEWIS 16 VERNON LEWIS 17 SHWETA MASHRU 18 SNEHA MEHTA

Cadbury India is a fully owned subsidy of Kraft Foods Inc. The combination of Kraft Foods and Cadbury creates a global powerhouse in snacks, confectionery and quick meals. With annual revenues of approximately $50 billion, the combined company is the world's second largest food company, making delicious products for billions of consumers in more than 160 countries. We employ approximately 140,000 people and have operations in more than 70 countries.

In India, Cadbury began its operations in 1948 by importing chocolates. After 60 years of existence, it today has five company-owned manufacturing facilities at Thane, Induri (Pune) and Malanpur (Gwalior), Bangalore and Baddi (Himachal Pradesh) and 4 sales offices (New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkota and Chennai). The corporate office is in Mumbai. Our core purpose "make today delicious" captures the spirit of what we are trying to achieve as a business. We make delicious foods you can feel good about. Whether watching your weight or preparing to celebrate, grabbing a quick bite or sitting down to family night, we pour our hearts into creating foods that are wholesome and delicious.

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Cadbury India operates in four categories viz. Chocolate Confectionery, Milk Food Drinks, Candy and Gum category. In the Chocolate Confectionery business, Cadbury has maintained its undisputed leadership over the years. Some of the key brands in India are Cadbury Dairy Milk, 5 Star, Perk, clairs and Celebrations. Cadbury enjoys a value market share of over 70% - the highest Cadbury brand share in the world! Our billion-dollar brand Cadbury Dairy Milk is considered the "gold standard" for chocolates in India. The pure taste of CDM defines the chocolate taste for the Indian consumer. In the Milk Food drinks segment our main product is Bournvita - the leading Malted Food Drink (MFD) in the country. Similarly in the medicated candy category Halls is the undisputed leader. We recently entered the gums category with the launch of our worldwide dominant bubble gum brand Bubbaloo. Bubbaloo is sold in 25 countries worldwide.

CHOCLATES5 STAR PERK CELEBRATIONS TEMPTATIONS ECLAIRS GEMS

SNACKSBYTES

BEVERAGESBOURNVITA

CANDY GUMSHALLS BUBBALOO

Cadbury India is a fully owned subsidy of Kraft Foods Inc. The combination of Kraft Foods and Cadbury creates a global powerhouse in snacks, confectionery and quick meals. they are currently the world's No.1 confectionery and biscuit company. They are also the worlds second-largest food company with sales in approximately 160 countries. They employ approximately 140,000 people. Some facts on the company: 80 60 Our Global Reach 40 20 Approximately $50 billion in revenues 0 25%+ of global revenue from emerging markets CADBURY OTHERS #1 in global confectionery #1 in global biscuits More than 50% of global revenue from snacks and confectionery Our Brand Portfolio 11 brands with more than $1 billion in revenue 70+ brands with more than $100 million in revenue 40+ brands over 100 years old 80% revenue from #1 share positions

CADBURY WORLDWIDE

Working together to create brands people love & quote Mission statement of Cadbury India Ltd.saysCadbury means Quality This is our promise. Our reputation is built upon quality; Our commitment to continuous improvement will ensure our promise.

CHAIRMANC Y PalChairman Non EXECUTIVE

MANAGING DIRECTORANAND KRIPALUPresident, South Asia & Indo-China Managing Director CADBURY INDIA

Non-Executive DirectorsHARSH MARIWALA RADHAKRISHNAN B. MENON SURESH TALWAR

ATUL BHATIA DIRECTOR R&D

CHANDRAMOU LI VENKATESAN DIRECTOR, CHOCLATES & STRATERGY

JAIBOY PHILLIPS DIRECTOR, OPERATIONS

NARAYAN SUNDARAM AN DIRECTOR, BEVERAGES GUMS & CANDY

RAJESH GARG DIRECTOR FINANCE

RAJESH RAMNATH AN DIRECTOR HUMAN RESOURCE

SUNIL SETHI DIRECTOR, SALES & INTERNATION AL BUSINESS

The story of Cadbury Dairy Milk started way back in 1905 at Bournville, U.K., but the journey with chocolate lovers in India began in 1948. The pure taste of Cadbury Dairy Milk is the taste most Indians crave for when they think of Cadbury Dairy Milk. The variants Fruit & Nut, Crackle and Roast Almond, combine the classic taste of Cadbury Dairy Milk with a variety of ingredients and are very popular amongst teens & adults. Recently, Cadbury Dairy Milk Desserts was launched, specifically to cater to the urge for 'something sweet' after meals. Cadbury Dairy Milk has exciting products on offer - Cadbury Dairy Milk Wowie, chocolate with Disney characters embossed in it, and Cadbury Dairy Milk 2 in 1, a delightful combination of milk chocolate and white chocolate. Giving consumers an exciting reason to keep coming back into the fun filled world of Cadbury.

Cadbury Dairy Milk has been the market leader in the chocolate category for years. And has participated and been a part of every Indian's moments of happiness, joy and celebration. Today, Cadbury Dairy Milk alone holds 30% value share of the Indian chocolate market. In the early 90's, chocolates were seen as 'meant for kids', usually a reward or a bribe for children. In the Mid 90's the category was re-defined by the very popular `Real Taste of Life' campaign, shifting the focus from `just for kids' to the `kid in all of us'. It appealed to the child in every adult. And Cadbury Dairy Milk became the perfect expression of 'spontaneity' and 'shared good feelings'. The 'Real Taste of Life' campaign had many memorable executions, which people still fondly remember. However, the one with the "girl dancing on the cricket field" has remained etched in everyone's memory, as the most spontaneous & un-inhibited expression of happiness.This campaign went on to be awarded 'The Campaign of the Century', in India at the Abby (Ad Club, Mumbai) awards. In the late 90's, to further expand the category, the focus shifted towards widening chocolate consumption amongst the masses, through the 'Khanewalon Ko Khane Ka Bahana Chahiye' campaign. This campaign built social acceptance for chocolate consumption amongst adults, by showcasing collective and shared moments. More recently, the 'Kuch Meetha Ho Jaaye' campaign associated Cadbury Dairy Milk with celebratory occasions and the phrase "Pappu Pass Ho Gaya" became part of street language. It has been adopted by consumers and today is used extensively to express joy in a moment of achievement / success.

The REAL TASTE OF LIFE with the girl dancing on the cricket field. The Message : - DAIRY MILK is for ENJOYMENT During late 90s CAMPAIGN: KHANEWALON KO KHANE KA BAHANA CHAHIYE. TARGET: Widening chocolate consumption among the masses. More Recently CAMPAIGN : KUCH MEETHA HO JAYE TARGET: To associate Cadbury with celebrity occasion. CAMPAIGN : PAPPU PASS HO GAYA TARGET: Encourage those who have passed the exams to celebrate with Dairy Milk. CAMPAIGN : MISS PALAMPUR TARGET: Focusing on the adults. CAMPAIGN : AAJ PAHLI TAARIK HAIN TARGET: To celebrate pay day / salary day.

How Cadbury is made?The cocoa-bean -- the heart of the sweetest delicacy in the world -- is bitter! This is why, up to the 18th century some native tribes ate only the sweetish flesh of the cocoa fruit. They regarded the precious bean as waste or used it, as was the case among the Aztecs, as a form of currency. 1)The Varieties 7)Crushing and shelling 8)Blending 2)The Harvest 9)Grinding 3)Fermentation 4)Drying 12)Kneading 5)Cleaning 6)Roasting 13)Rolling 14)Conching 10)Cocoa Butter 11)Cocoa Powder

A demand forecast is the prediction of what will happen to your company's existing product sales. Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal methods, such as educated guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of historical sales data or current data from test markets. Demand forecasting may be used in making pricing decisions, in assessing future capacity requirements, or in making decisions on whether to enter a new market. It would be best to determine the demand forecast using a multi-functional approach. Estimate of expected demand over a specified future period. Also called forecast demand. The inputs from sales and marketing, finance, and production should be considered. The final demand forecast is the consensus of all participating managers. You may also want to put up a Sales and Operations Planning group composed of representatives from the different departments that will be tasked to prepare the demand forecast. Determination of the demand forecasts is done through the following steps: Determine the use of the forecast

Select the items to be forecast Determine the time horizon of the forecast Select the forecasting model(s) Gather the data Make the forecast Validate and implement results

The time horizon of the forecast is classified as follows: Description Short-range Duration Medium-range Forecast Horizon Long-range More than 3 years Usually less than 3 months to 3 3 months, years maximum of 1 year Job scheduling, worker assignments Sales and production planning, budgeting

Applicability

New product development, facilities planning

How is demand forecast determined? There are two approaches to determine demand forecast (1) the qualitative approach, (2) the quantitative approach. The comparison of these two approaches is shown below: Description Applicability Qualitative Approach QUANTITATIVE APPROACH

Used when situation is vague & Used when situation is stable & little data exist (e.g., new products historical data exist and technologies) (e.g. existing products, current technology) Involves intuition and experience Involves mathematical techniques Jury of executive opinion Sales force composite Delphi method Consumer market survey Time series models Causal models

Considerations Techniques

Cadbury plan their production process by using a time series method as this helps Cadbury to accurately produce the needed amount of chocolate at the correct period of time. A time series shows historical data that can be used and analysed to predict future trends. Christmas and Easter are peak selling times for all chocolate manufactures including Cadbury, this is obviously because chocolate products make good gifts for these occasions. Time series analysis does not explain the casual relationship between variables & how they will be in future also. It simply assumes thatpast behaviour of the variable will continue in future also. Hence time series analysis tries to find out the factors which affect the behaviour of the variable. The changes in the variable over a period of time are divided into 4 components. They are TRENDS SEASONAL VARIATIONS CYCLICAL VARIATIONS RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS

Demand ForecastingAdvantages- The data helps Cadbury to reduce wastage and produce the amount of products that customers would purchase. - The data is reliable if collected properly/accurately. - The forecast helps Cadbury to make products efficiently as it helps Cadbury to set a target of the amount of products needed; there are always enough products to supply to customers.

Disadvantages- Cadbury need to have a lot of past data in order for the time series method to be used accurately to predict sales figures. - If the external environment doesnt stay stable then there will be problems with the forecast for example if the prices of the raw materials used to produce Cadbury products increases then the price of the product has to increase in order for Cadbury to make a profit from the product produced. This may affect the customers purchasing trends. - The data may be biased or representative.

product is a brand loyal product, so if there is a slight increase in the price, the demand of the product will remain unaffected. But if there is a decrease in the price, the demand of the product may slightly increase. Income:

Price: This

If the income of the people increases, the demand of the product also increases and if the income of the people decreases, the demand of the product decreases because then people will go for lower price chocolate like clair or melody of Rs.1 or Rs. 2. So, there is a positive relationship between income and the product demand.

Consumers taste and preferences: Cadbury produced milk chocolates by using the high quality of cocoa bean and the taste has still remained the same which has touched the heart of the consumers. So, they will not like to go for any other product. Competition: There are many competitors like Cadbury 5-star, Nestle Kit-Kat, Parle Chox, foreign chocolates (Chinese), Lotee etc. in the market so if the price of the competitors increases, the demand of the dairy milk also increases. But if the price of the competitors decrease, the demand of the dairy milks not much affected by it.

Price of Complementary Goods: Cadbury dairy milk is made from the milk, sugar, cocoa bean and cocoa powder. If the price of these complementary goods increases then there will be no change in the demand. Because Cadbury dairy milk is a brand loyal product so there will not be any effect on the demand of the product. Population & Age group: This product is meant for the children, adults and also for the old people so the age groups are not much affected the demand of the product so demand remain same and by the increase in the population, the demand of the product also increases. Advertisement campaign: Advertisement campaign has played a vital role in attracting the major part of the population towards the Cadbury dairy milk. Cadbury has associated dairy milk to celebrations and every moment of achievement and success. So, it is through advertisement that Cadbury has gained social acceptance which has played a major role in increasing his demand. Celebrations & Occasions: During the festivals and occasions, the consumption of Cadbury increases because its a product for enjoying the taste of each and every moment with harmony. Brand Image: The brand image of the Cadbury plays an important role in the demand of the Cadbury. This product has built such a brand image that it has much attracted the mind of the consumers so they will not like to switch over to the other brand.

Cadbury Uses JustEnough Mobile to Pioneer Mobile Field Marketing Solution that Boosts Revenue, Improves CRM DURHAM, NC- October 7, 2009- Confectionery Company Cadbury is leading their industry by deploying an advanced mobile field marketing solution that empowers its mobile workforce with exceptional CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT (CRM) and TRADE MARKETING capabilities. The solution, provided by JUST ENOUGH MOBILE gives managers the ability to use handheld devices to direct in-field operations and enables the mobile workforce to process orders in a closed-loop, order-to-invoice system. According to Pieter Spies, Sales Director at Cadbury South Africa, the solution provides the company with a significant competitive advantage in field marketing by improving customer service, boosting revenue and reducing costs. "We are anticipating a 5% growth in revenue as direct result of efficiencies provided by the system," he says.

There -are many competitors of Cadbury dairy milk like Nestle munch Nestle kitkat Parle chox Foreign chocolates (Chinese) Lotee Hersheys , etc

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Due to competitors the demand of Cadbury dairy milk is affected. If the price of competitors rises the demand for Cadbury dairy milk also rises & with fall in price of competitors the demand of Cadbury dairy milk falls.

Cadbury Dairy Milk emerged as the No. 1 most trusted brand in Mumbai for the 2005 edition of Brand Equity's Most Trusted Brands survey.

During the Ist World War, Cadbury Dairy Milk supported the war effort. Over 2,000 male employees joined the armed forces and Cadbury sent books, warm clothes and chocolates to the front.

CADBURY DAIRY MILK CROWNED AS CONSUMER SUPER BRAND

CADBURY DAIRY MILK WINS THE EFFIES 2006

PAPPU DOES IT AGAIN !!!

CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONSDemand forecasting is widely used by business firms to estimate the future demand of their products & services. Business firms use historical or past date to explain future demand. The estimation of future demand helps the business firms to analyse their production, distribution, selling, advertisement & promotional activities & the cost involved in covering these activities. Recommendations can be considered by business firms to enhance their performance in serving its customers the best. Customers complaints should be welcomed & handled effectively. A quick response to customers complaint can bring a positive impact on part of business firms. Suggestions from customers should be taken into consideration.