3.7 Rodney Harrell
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Rodney Harrell, PhDSenior Strategic Policy AdvisorAARP Public Policy Institute
U.S. population is growing … and growing older
Year 65+ PopulationTotal
Population
65+ Share of
Total
Population
2000 34,991,753 281,421,906 12%
2010 40,229,000 310,233,000 13%
2030 72,092,000 373,504,000 19%
2050 88,547,000 439,010,000 20%
Source: U.S Census Bureau - Census projections as of 8/2008
84 113
186238
4089
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2050
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f P
op
ula
tio
n
65 and Over
20-64
Under 20
Table 12. Projections of the Population by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050 (NP2008-T12)
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Release Date: August 14, 2008
U.S. Census Bureau projection: Growth in 65+ will outpace other
cohortsU.S. Population by Age, 2010 and 2050
Homelessness and Older Adults
Source: The Policy Book, AARP Public Policies, 2011-2012
•30 percent of the U.S. population is 50 years of age and older
•In 2008, 16.8 percent of persons who soughtcommunity services for the homeless were aged 51 or older.
• Older homeless are more likely to suffer from health problems due to exposure to extreme climates
Homelessness and Older Adults
Source: “Demographics of Homelessness Series: The Rising Elderly Population,” National Alliance to End Homeless, April 2010
• National data (HUD Annual Homelessness Assessment Report) shows modest increases in older (62+) homeless population: 2.4% in 2005 to 2.8% in 2008.
•Site specific data from various cities show greater increases in general homeless populations which would include older homeless.
•Older homeless population projected to increase by 33% from 44,172 in 2010 to 58,772 in 2020 and reach over 95,000 in 2050.
Homelessness and Older Adults: Causes
Source: “Demographics of Homelessness Series: The Rising Elderly Population,” National Alliance to End Homeless, April 2010
• Older households with annual income below the poverty line
• Aging of the chronically homeless population
• New homeless elderly adults who did not experience homelessness prior to age 65
• Other causes: • history of unstable employment• financial problems/housing costs• mental/physical health problems• job loss• inadequate/discontinued public assistance• inadequate income
Homelessness and Older Adults: Causes-
Inadequate/Discontinued Public Assistance
Source: “Demographics of Homelessness Series: The Rising Elderly Population,” National Alliance to End Homeless, April 2010
• Affordable housing supply declining for approximately 30 years. A loss of 1.3 million units from 1993 to 2003.
• Public housing provides affordable housing units but programs have ceased building new units
• Vacancy rates for Section 202 (2.6%) and LIHTC (1.6%) housing properties serving seniors are low compared to national rate of 9.6% in 2006.
• Long waiting lists and low turnover in subsidized housing• Older residents don’t move as frequently as younger residents• Older residents may find moving difficult due to health reasons
• Section 8 vouchers: demand often exceeds supply; five- to ten-year waiting lists
50+ Householders with Housing Cost Burdens
Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
Low- and moderate-income households often have a housing cost burden, even if they own their homes
California - 50+ Householders with Housing Cost Burdens
Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
New York - 50+ Householders with Housing Cost Burdens
Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
Massachusetts - 50+ Householders with Housing Cost Burdens
Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
State Housing Profiles:
Housing Conditions and Affordability for the Older
Population
Housing Statistics for each state
Coming soon!: Will be available at
www.aarp.org/statehousingprofiles
Homelessness and Older Adults: Mortgage Crisis
Source: “A First Look at Older Americans and the Mortgage Crisis,” AARP Public Policy Institute, 2008
• Americans age 50 and older represent
approximately 28% of all delinquencies and foreclosures as of 2007 (684,000 homeowners, including 50,000 in foreclosures or home already lost).
• Older African-Americans and Hispanics have higher foreclosures rates than whites of any age.
•Older Americans with subprime first mortgages are nearly 17 times more likely to be in foreclosure than Americans of the same age with prime loans.
•For Americans over the age of 50, a loan-to-value ratio that exceeds 100% is associated with foreclosure rates that are roughly double the national rate for consumers in this age group.
Livable Communities
Photo by Jana Lynott
Photo by Jana Lynott
AARP Housing Policy Principles (2011-2012)
Improve home design. Promote affordable housing options. Strengthen federal housing programs. Increase capacity for public-private
partnerships. Promote financial security of housing
assets. Foster home and community-based
service delivery.
Homelessness and Older Adults: AARP Policy Solutions
Source: The Policy Book, AARP Public Policies, 2011-2012 www.aarp.org/policybook
•Federal Program Coordination
•Funding and Assistance
PPI Report: “Preserving Affordability and Access in Livable
CommunitiesSubsidized Housing Opportunities near Transit and the 50 +
Population”
Authors:Rodney Harrell, PhD
AARP Public Policy Institute
Allison BrooksReconnecting America
Todd NedwickNational Housing Trust
AARP, Reconnecting America, and the National Housing Trust developed a study, research paper and Solutions Forum that looked at housing, transportation, and land use.
This study looked at the differences between housing near transit and housing far from transit, the location of subsidized housing in 20 cities, and how housing location mattered to older persons who lived in those apartments.
Overview of Research Conclusions…
Subsidized housing near transit meets a crucial need for
older adults.
Currently, there is a significant supply of affordable
housing near transit (Project-based Section 8 and Section 202)
However, existing affordable housing near transit is
increasingly at risk in the face of upward pressure on
housing prices and expiring government subsidies.
Preserving affordable housing near transit is of critical
importance for creating livable communities for older
Americans.
Cleveland, OH
Long waiting lists for housing
Safety and perception of safety were issues
Lack of access to train station limits the use by residents
Good bus service on main avenues, problems getting elsewhere
© Google 2010
© Google 2010
© Google 2010
© Google 2010
© Google 2010
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23
3
Twin Cities, MN
The downtown location in Minneapolis has access to light rail, buses, shopping
Buses in Edina not “frequent” but are useful
Car access not as important as in other areas due to effective, useful transit
© Google 2010Nicollet Towers
Nicollet Mall
Light Rail Station
Nicollet Mall, Minneapolis
© Google 2010
© Google 2010 © Google 2010
AARP Public Policy Institute
Informs and stimulates public debate on the issues we face as we age.
Provides objective research and analysis
Promotes the development of sound, creative policies to address our common need for economic security, health care, and quality of life.
www.aarp.org/ppi/liv-com
For hard copies of publications, send requests to: [email protected]