329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian...

23
* ) : / / : / / ( . . ) TCM ( . ) ( . . SWOT . ) ( ) ( . . ) IFE ( ) EFE ( ) AHP ( EXPERT CHOICE . ) ST ( . ) QSPM ( . / . : * : : : E-mail: [email protected]

Transcript of 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian...

Page 1: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

���� ��� �� � ������ ����� ����� ���� ������ �����! ���"# �$ ��%��� �&!'( ��)* �� �(!+�, !$- !+(

����� �� �� ���� ���� ������� ���� ���� �����

��!"� ���#��� ���$� �%��� �"&�� ��"�"��'()

���� ����*�

� ����� ��� �

���������� ��� ��

����� ���� � �

� ����� ��� ����� ��� ��������� ������� �������� � �� �!"#���� ��� ��������� ������� �$" %������ �

� ����� ���� ������� �&'��� � ()�� *�+� � ,���� �� ���-��. /�0��� 1��� ������ %�2�2+� � 3�$" �������� � � ����� ���� ������� �� ���-��. /�0��� 1����4�5"� -6 ��� ����� �

)(8���� 9����: ;;/;=/>>?��@� 9���� � :==/;=/>A(

�����

�6 1��CD E�� /F��� &��5��� /����6 E�� � G �����.��H) ��� 3�I�� /6 ����. �� � 1J6 .� /6�E ()J� 3�L �� ��M-�

6N�O/ ���J���� � �F�5P &Q�� +� � /FR�S� ���� /2S-� ��-��8 � �� �����- �� �������D & . �� �����. /��-���D T�,� �6

�U� /-�V� W�� ?R�X)TCM (W��� ����6 �&��YL T�$+� � /�VI� ��L���- &�Z�2� ����.��H) ��� 3�I�� /6 /FR�S� ���� /2S-� .

�� F� G � E�� �6==[����O�U� &�Z�2� �\.� � ���� �� �����. /��-���D � " ) -U��;]>^ ��� E�����8 (��_R ;]>> ( ��

T�,� ���FR�S� /2S-� . � 3�I�� %�5��+� 4��� �6 ����O�U� W��� 1J6 ����. �� �/FR�S� ���� �� `� �$� � ���abc

��$� � ��d`e��V� �����6 ��� �� ���� . �/���� �� /F��� �f. &����5��� /g��� � E�� � ��M-� /6����.��H) W�� �� /����6 &V��

&��5���SWOT ���6 &��L .W�� E�� �$0�� T���" �����- �6 �-�5� )�2�h iFZ � %f�X( � 0 T���"�O�� )(j�8 �� �

��%� � ((�� ����6 (+� *�+� .(8��YD %��j �UR� W�� /6 �O��0 � �$0�� T���" �����- ������ E�� �� . ������- �� kD

?R�X �� �O��0 � �$0�� T���"�� �� O�$0�� T���" �6����� )IFE (�O��0 &�����.�8 �6����� �)EFE ( ��� kl� � ?���

6 ��� ��� � ���/ ���5���� /$)$� T�$+� -���8 �� (��F��� �6 T���" E)AHP ( ��V8� 3�� �EXPERT CHOICE 3�I�� . m����

E�� �� � n��J����� O�� /. ��6 �� �o� /66N�O ��O� Hp�/ ����M� H. ��-��8 � �F�5P &� /6 �� /j�" E�� ���� �� ��2R�6 /.

���. &���. qP�-� �� (F�5P &����L ?SX � �8�F� 3 " � ���-6��� %���,�� �� iFZ ��r� ������5. ��O� � -��� � 6

�� O �� ����6 (+� ��� +� � ?5� ?��-��� %�_�$5�/����6 &V����6�X� *��� �� &��5��� ) &C������ST (���L ���X . /���� ��

��O��0 � �$0�� T���" �6����� �� Tj�� %�"�P� q�U$� � q�X � G � �6 �� O /����6 &V�� �f. &��5���)QSPM ( T�,� .

���-��D &C������ /� �� O E�� m���� 4��� �6 %���)� /g��� q��P �� �j�@0 1J6 &��YL /����� ?$O s���� E�� �� /.

�N�0t� ������ �6 /R�� /� � ��� ��-�� ?R�X �� ��U�� &��YL�� � % � ��u�P (�L��6 ���� �6 �,��6vd/` &����5��� E����� ���-" /6

�.� /F�������H) ���� w� �� /FR�S� ���� /2S-� �� d` /R�� (�� ���� T6�X.

���� ������ : �&��@�X� &��Y�����.�����H) �/����6 &V��1J6 ��5���� /$)$� T�$+� -���8 ��U� /-�V� W�� �&��5���

����. �� �

*����� ����� : � �� :������������ ���� :������������ E-mail: [email protected]

Page 2: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation
Page 3: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

../ �0 ��12# 34� �5�67�), ����� 8��9%:� 8��;6#��� ���...

����

�� ���" �����" ������� ������ �� ���� ����

���� � !#$ � ������ %�& !#$ �& �$�� ����'( ��(

��) � *��� ������ %� +�&)Lauros,1999 .(*��/�#

%��01 ��������������� � ���� �2$ $ 32�4� %�

+�&: ������� ��56$ !# /$ �6�78� ���$ �& 92

��� � ��# � � %��:� ��; /$ <�=� %�+�/ ��( >�8�$

%� +?� �2$ ��# @�� /$ 92 A�# A�B +'& %7� � C+?/$ *D %����# E��� !F$�G#$ H/� � !�)�4� %2�? /$

�2$ I�5J !#$(Mehrabian, 2005). �&$��2K� L���& �M2N�)�O$ ��56 P+� A��2K��!#$

�& *��/ � %#�� �� !4�5B ���� ��4�%L+� �%'2$�� �� � !4�Q ������01 !#$. �2$ IM� /$

�������� !�)�4� ��? %G;$�� *���$ $ �G'�� �

!4�5B *�:�$ �2�� %� �/�# � ��? ������ �� %�G5� ���4� � %��?�� ��? !�$��� � $+2� �� L$�7? +�7�+?

���1 /$� �? �� %4�5B +2+� /$ %2�1 ��)L �? *������ �!#$ *D (Yaghmaiyan, 2003) .� ��4)�R� ����/

������ �S2 � %4�5B TB��� � �$���/$ � ���5?$ �� *$�2$ � ���� � ���2/ ��4)�R� *��O �� %?��1��� �0�D �2�G70� /$ %(�� �� I2� � �O !#$ L+�# >�8�$

L��$%� ��� : Chin Chen A�# � VWWV � %;�� ���XGJ$ H/$

*$�2�����# ��2S? H� T2�B /$ $ (TCM)� ����$� $�J %#�� .*�M� /$ %M2 Y�� �2$ �0'� %1��� ��?

�Z2�� [�� A�7� �%� +��� .� \2�G�� �2$ /$ L+�D !#� ���# E��� /$ �+2�6 ��# ������� �O �$� *�'� T�]=�

�O�# /$ ^2 �? �$��� * *$S�� �� %�=�_W` �M2��D � ��+F � E��� %�O ��# �Va !#$ A�# � � *�����

)Chin Chen, 2002(. Chen A�# � @�$�M7? � VWW_ ���� �� %��4)�R�

^2 � !4�5B ������� ����O /$ %��� b���� %��2/$ ��c ���2N L�2S1 %J�� IF�# �$+G�$ � %�F�# �]R��

��2S? H� ��+��$� >�8�$ ��# . � IF�# �2$ H/$ b71

�� World Tourism Organization (WTO)

�� Ecological Tourism

�� Fushan botanical

�� Travel Cost Method

*�M��?� /$ @�� *D �� <5��� %?��1��� da *����� +� L�/ ��7e� L�� � �M2��D �)Chen, 2004(.

Zanderson � Jense� A�# VWWd)�]� � �$ � ������ �� f�5�$L �? *D �� f���� ��4)�R� � %���1 �

H� /$ L���G#$ �� ���$ [�� �+��$� �g$$ ��# ��2S? . /$ ^2 �? �$�� �+2�6 ��# ������� @?�h� �2$ \2�G�

�O�#��]R�� I($� �� ������ �? ��� �$/$ �� %�=� * $ iVV ��D�� ���?�� L�� ^2 � �M2��D � ��7� )Zandersen & Jensen , 2005(.

Shrestha A�# � ��# ��2S? H� /$ L���G#$ ��VWWj��k�]� E��� �$�� *��+��O+2�/�� MG�%� �

!4�5B $�D ���(�� �]R�� ���M�c� %#�� $+2�����7� . �R� *��+��O+2�/�� �O �$� *�'� �4)�R� �2$ \2�G�

<#�G�il/j_��7� ��2S? !��J$ /� �? �$/$ �� � L +�$ ��+F � ���XGJ$ ��D �Odn/_l_ A�# � � *�����

]R�� �$�� $ !�$� L$�7? �� �(Shrestha, 2007). Averil �Fleming A�# � VWWl %1��� H/$

�S�M� �c�2�� >�8�$ ��# ��2S? H� /$ L���G#$ �� $+��$� . ��$/� �$� $�J ��)$�G#$ �'O � �O �c�2� �2$

�$$�VWWW!#$ L+��O +2�/�� ��� .$ %1��� H/$2 � ��� �c�2�V/i` �� _/__�� A�# � ��)$�G#$ � *���

+� ��D��)Fleming & Averil, 2008( . ��1��� %��2/$ *��O�� L �?� *$�2$ � � � �O ��B

�G��2 �4#�� ��?�'O�$� A�$+� !#$ L+�#�� >�8�$ �� !2�2+� �$�1$ KO ���'�� � *$�� %� $ *D !�6 �O

��1��� %7�6L �?��O �8G�1 *$�2$ � .� I2� � %(�� � L��$ ����/ �2$ � �G��2�� >�8�$ ��4)�R� /$%� ���:

Saudi shahabi A�# �VWWd *�2�� � ����%#����O H/$ ��# ��2S? H� /$ L���G#$ �� ��( +�$

A��4� $ %)S�$ o�� %?��1���iV_dW_WWW � A�2 ��O ��D�� A�# (Saudi shahabi, 2005).

�� Apalachicola

�� McKenzie

Page 4: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation
Page 5: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

���� ��� �� � ������ ����� ����� ���� ������ �����! ���"# �$ ��%��� �&!'( ��)* �� �!+(�, !$- !!&

Abedinzadeh � +�$ %#����O ���� *�2����( � A�#VWW_ H/$ *�#�pO ����'#�� /$ L���G#$ ��

$ *p�� *�G#$ *$�$�# %���1 q�� ���XGJ$ A��4� nd_� ��� � *�jWW$S? ���XGJ$ H/$ � A�# � A�2

$ !� �0� %�Q$ ��? q�� /$ %M2 %1��� ����O �� ��$��id� ��� � *�jjd $S? � A�2 ��D�� A�#

��7�(Abedinzadeh, 2004). Shadmanlahiji ��? A�# %B �VWW_ %)$VWWd

�2pO���$ o�� %1��� H/$ $ �� *p�� *�G#$ � �2 f��'� �$���/$ H� /$ L���G#$�(C.V.M)A��4�

l� ����� �n`� ��� � *�`V` $S? �/ ��7e� A�2 (Shadmanlahiji, 2005).

Mojabi � @?�h� A�# � ��( VWWd /$ L���G#$ �� ��# ��2S? H� $ *��2��� !4�5B q�� %1��� H/$

A��4�n/jj !��O !#� I��1 � A�# � A�2 ������ $ *$S2�)da��7� ��D�� A�# � A�2 ������

(Mojabi, 2005). Latifi osquie �A�# VWWn q�� ���XGJ$ H/$

%�6 �� *�6 %���1A�# �? � $ S2�5� � bJ$� A��4� iVd� ��� � *�li$S? ��2S? H� /$ L���G#$ �� A�2

�/ ��7e� ��#(Latifi osquie, 2006). <#�� �� ��G�e� �$�� ��# ��2S? H�" *�2��

*�#�pO�" �g$$+�A�$+G� /$ %M2 � H� �2�� ��?!#$ %?��1��� TB��� � %����/$ . H� �2$ �

B$ A�# 3�Ge� IQ$�� � +2�/�� ��4�� ����/ � %��6p ��D b71%� ��� . <#�� r��+76 H� �2$ � ��6pB$

���'#��� �$ �2�+� *�#�pO ����'#�� �� s�G�� %� ��� .R�$ ��# *��/ � ��2S? ��� �R�$ �O �8�D /$� �$

%� L/�1$ T]=� �� ��6pB$ �2$ !#$ K�]G�� +?� $ +2�/�� ��4��+�O �5#�=� ��2S? 3�Ge� t�R# �� . �2$

%� ��6pB$ � �]R�� ��k�]� %�=�� K�#�� �$�� +�$��41$�� ��2S? ��D��� *D ���XGJ$ �+2�6 �� ���J � *

�O�# �$��� *���� $�J L���G#$ ��� . ��2S? H� ���5� ^2 �� L+��O �41$�� �$��$ �$+4� ��� �R�$ ��D�� ��#

���� +4� L��1��� � �$��$ �2$ %7g$� L��G��M# /$ !

�� Contingent Valuation Method

�� Marion Clawson

!#$ %?��1��� �]R�� �� *��D %#�G#� ��2S? ������� )Asheim, 2000(.

�$+0� @e� !F��� ��la/V`_dV b��� �G����O �� � �'O @e� �2�� b�#� *$��6dn � �1� i` �]�J�

��d` � �1� iV � %J�� A�B �]�J� Vn � �1� il �]�J� ��V` � �1� `n� �]�J � %)�7� u�6

!#$ bJ$� *���O *�G#�0� . � @e� �2$`d ��G����O ��) �2�O ����F � v�w� ^2 IM� �� *���O �0�

+�O %� %2�7���( . ��G(�� A�7� ��# �� v�w� �2$ �#!#$ ���( o��1 !7# �� *D L+6�J � . � @e� �2$

�O �G� �� %Jp�L �? !�� TB��� � �SO�� b���� �J$� ��2�O ��F�� ��� %2��wG#$ %Jp� �2$ � L+� b

%�h2� ��2�O � %��G�?�O $ ����� KO %R�=� ��?R]� �G7O � �O !#$ L��D ��1� ��� �$ *$�2$ �p� /$

��O L+?�'� *$�� %�(A’rabi, 2005). �$+0� I=� ��O �G� %Jp�L �? *$�2$ �SO�� b���� � � �2�O bJ$� ��)

*�G#$ �O L+� $ *���O /$ *�G#$ *�G�c��� � *�G��#+�O %� $+1 . �$+G�$��6���$ @e� ���0� �$+0� �� $

2�Z?�O A+G4� � ��2�O ^'( S2�7G� @e� ��� �$ �# %7��J$ x�=) /$ ��2+M2 �� %Jp� � �O L��7� ^�M��

�]R��: ��#��# � ������� ��2�O ����F � ��2�O �$� IM� $ %��G�?�OL +�$ .�$+0�4� /$ !#$ %]B��� ��+

�0c �$$� �OL �? %4�5B *������ �!#$ . b���� ��1�oD � %7��J$ y��� � s5# �$+0� @e�� ��1� �� L+

78� �$$� ��) �2�O ����F � $�]G#$br�G5�� %����$ O$�G�%7 +���. ����B �O ��F�� �2�G�S� K� /$ z�

��) %G�471� @e� �$+0� G��2 *�M#$� $!#. � �2$ �4#�� ���5?$ ������ �2�+� %{�O C+? �� @?�h���O$2K� C$+?$ � *���O �$+0� @e� �2���*�|7?

���1 %2�#���� �?%4�5B �� %e2�� } � �]R�� %��?�� I��=� � �2S8� � ���XGJ$ �$���/$ S�����#���

��k�]����O$2K�+�# >�8�$ �� *D .

Page 6: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation
Page 7: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

..= ����0 ��12# 34� �5�67�), ����� 8��9%:� 8��;6#��� ...

�� � ��� ��

���� �� T�]=� �2$ � %?��1��� H/$ ���4� �]R���$+0��]R�� ��# ��2S? H� /$ +� L���G#$ �$ . �2$ �

�?+2�/�� �+4� ����/ � %��6pB$ H� � 3�Ge� IQ$�� %���/b71%� ��D��� . �$�1$ ���� �� �4)�R� �2$ �

+�# >�8�$ �� I2� IF$�� H� �2$: A�$ ��F��~ ���4� T2�B /$ %��4)�R� L��+=� �5#�=�

H� �� ��M�76 y�4�"�����" ) �R�$i( >�� ��F��~ b71 � *��+��O+2�/�� �$+4� ����/ � ��6pB$ ��D

��4�� � �?+2�/�� �k�]� �wO$+F *��/>�# ��F��~ +2�/�� !5�� �5#�=��$/$ �� ��� $S? L+��O +2�/��

�]R��) K��]� /$ !5�� �2$ !�471+2�/��*��+��O �� !�471 �5#�=� �]R�� !���%� ���( >�0c ��F��~

��# *��/ � !���� ������� �5#�=�) ��Q �� � !�!'���( K8�� ��F��~ !���� +4� ��� �R�$ ���4�

*��+��O+2�/�� �$+4� � ��# ��2S?]R���) �� ��#$ �2$ %�+��O+2�/�� <#�G� �$�� $ �k�]� b��� *$��*�� ��D�� ��O( K'� ��F��~ �k�]� b��� K�#��� L���G#$ �� +2�/��

� �R�$ /$ �L��1��� �$�� L+�D !#� � ��F����2��%~ ���XGJ$ ��# IO ��D�� ������� ����O /$ IQ�F

�$+0� �]R�� � !4�5B C�X� �$/�� �5#�=� T2�B /$ �k�]� %�=�� �2/ �R# �� L+��O )Moons, 2003.(

� ( Er 4/1

[�� �R�$ �r ���M�76 y�4� �� � �G����O E !�471!#$ ��� $S? ���5� �� %#�� !=� �0� .

[�� �R�$ �r � �G����& �� ���:�76 y�4� E !�471 !#$ ��� $S? ���5� �� %#�� !=� �0�.

�� �1�� �� �2$ �&%� %��� @�� !�471 L+76 ��� *���O�0� $+5� /$ %?��1��� ����M�$ /$ L���G#$ %k�]G�

���$+0� @e� �41$�� +�O�2$����� �R�$ � "����" �� �1�� !�471 �������� ����) ��7��# ��#$ �� A�#���� ( �2$ ���M�76 y�4� *���O �0�

�0���/�� %��4)�R� y�4� A��4� �O +� ��D�� �G����O!#$ T�]=� �2$ .�$�� !01 >/ ���7� �$+4� ���4�

�� Ruppert

���7� H� /$ %1��� H/$ ��D��L��# %���X� ����� +� L���G#$ .�� 2$ �$+4� $+G�$ ���� ��� �� ����'#��

� *��/D @�� *$��6@e��?� ��� �]R�� 3�Ge� I2�7� *$S�� *D z��2$� �5#�=� /$ � +� I�7M� �4)�R�

�� �]R�� *��+��O+2�/�� !($��� �� �5#�=� ���� +2��� ��D�� %1��� H/$ . s2�k o��GF$ �� zZ#

*���7B$�� ��R( � +Q� ���7� �$+4� +Q� � �? � �R�$ /$ L���G#$ �� >/"�OO*$�"� �B /$2 �R�$ T�

+� �5#�=�:

V( 95/219)03/0(

)227/0()90/0(2

22

2

22

d

stn

�R�$ �2$ � ~s2 :z��2$� d : s��F ��� �4)�R� ��R(

+Q� � t :!#$ *���7B$ s2�k. ��$2�����'#�� ���� ����'#�� *$��6 !=� �$

/$ s&�� *�#�pO�� ��� � K���� A$�# ��� ��� L�� +��#$ � L+��& +2�/������ �2���� !2��) ����

b2/��+� I�7M� � .���'#�� /$ ��$+4�� �? /$ z� T�J� %#�� � �4)�R�� H�+e� I�)� �� *�� +� C�F

� �$+4� !2�0� � ��� �+6 L+� I�7M� ����'#�� !01!��� $�J L���G#$ ��� \2�G� %2�0� I��=�. ���� ��

���'#�� ��6pB$ I��=� � �2S8�� �? ���D $S�$ >�� /$ W/id SPSS �Eviews+� L���G#$ . ��# ��2S?)TC (

u���� �]R�� �$��j �R�$ /$ S��� +� �5#�=�: a( TCij= TC (DCij, TTCij, Fi)

I=J......n J=I……m

�R�$ �2$ � DC�2S? � �? � %B��� �? !����%k��

I !#$� �O � ��2S? � L+� %B !���� ��#$ �� %G($����$� %�G�� �G����O TC��2S? ��# !#$�O �+� �� ��� %#�G#� *��/I *��/ �� ���|7? � �]R�� *D ��

!#$ �G��$� L+� ��Z#�F �� ��$�� IO ��2S? !($��� L+� �]R�� �%� +��� . ��# ��2S? IO T�]=� �2$ �

� Simple Random Sampling

� Cochran(1997)

Page 8: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

���� ��� �� � ������ ����� ����� ���� ������ �����! ���"# �$ ��%��� �&!'( ��)* �� �!+(�, !$- !!!

!'��� � !� �2$�O !7�J y�78� /$ L+��O+2�/�� �?��41$� !7�J %Xe� ���#� /$ L���G#$ ��Q � *

�5#�=� I�5���$ qp0G#$ � %��X� I�g�/�� �2 �2S��+�. %� �R�$ �2$ �+2�/�� �$+4� *��� %�G�57? *$��

� ��� ��# ��2S? � +2�/�� �$+4� ���|7? � !���� +4� � ��� ��� L��1��� �$�� zZ# � �5#�=� $ ��� s)�J �

A+� ^2�'�� ��7� ��0 .� K# � %�=�� ��k�]� %?��1����2S? @2$S�$ �$��$� �?�� ��4�� �$+4�

L��1��� /$ L���G#$���5� �� ��� $S? �? L+��O +2�/�� ���4��+. K# /$ z��k�]� %�=���?��1��� % ��

�R# �5#�=��2/ L��1��� ���XGJ$ H/$ %�=�� +� �5#�=� ) �R�$�( �5#�=� �+ :

_( ∑ n

zAPNVR

1.

$ �2~�R�$ � N: *��+��&+2�/�� �$+4�VR: H/$ L��1��� n: 2��� �$+4�� �?L+� �G��� ��� � � AP:

!7�J 2���� �?%k�� � � ���� �t�B �S2 ������ /$ �$+0� @e� ���5?$ !2�2+�H� SWOT1

L�0� ����+� . I�$�6 *��7� %�7O /$ L���G#$ �� H� �2$�)�� �2$ ��� I��4� � %1�( I�$�6 � %�($�� �? �� %4#

�$� �2�� *�M�$ ��?��5?$ �g$$) %�$�6$iald .( %2�#��� %1�( � %�($� I�$�6 �� %#�� !=� <�=�

%�)� H� �� *���5( ����'#�� /$ !��4G#$� >�8�$ �� �#+ .��$2���� ��)�$ !#�0� $+G�$ � �$ %�($� I�$�6 /$

�� ���� %1�( ��h�$�G#$ �? �4#�� ����O$2K� @e� +� ��0� �$+0� .zZ# /$ VV �O o�8� �$��$ /$ ���

� +�$ %#����O %��X=� q+� IJ$+F �$$����/� �? >��6 %4�5B b���� !�2/ <�=� %XXe� �

�� !2�2+� �2 � ���XGJ$ IJ$+FiW � !�)�4� �]��# A�# ���/� �? �$+0� �]R�� � !�)�4� ���8� �2 ������� �

)%�)� L��� *$��6 �� ( /$ L���G#$ �� +� �G#$�( �� ���� %1�( � %�($� I�$�6 ��X(� ����'#��

!4�Q �4#�����O$2K�+�2�7� ��� �0�$ �]R�� . ��

�� �� ������ ������ ���� ����� ����� : ���� )Strength( !"�# $

)(Weakness%&'* $ )Opportunity (+ ����� )Threat(%, .

�� Delphi Method

� !2��6� 2$L��� <#�� L+� L��$ �$�� �M� � %�)� ���'#�� s)�J� �? I��=� K�� ��� L+� I�7M� /�� �

D �+�� �G#� �� L+��O� s)�J � *�'2$ �$��� � $S�L �? H� � ����O I��J �O ��5( �SWOT !#$

!($��� .zZ# � ����'#�� *��+��O I�7M� /$ ��6� �� �������� %G#� b2��Q %��?�� �$��� L$�$ I=�

�7k *���O *�G#$ �4)�R� H� ���5� � C+? �2�'� �� L+��O I��=� K�� �O \2�G� L�5( L��� �$�� ypB$

+�# %�)� L��� . *�=1 ��1� ���4� ��X(� I�)� �� %1�( � %�($� ��?�G�$�� %?� */� � ��2�]� K�7X� $S�$ K? �$��$ �$$� � I($+G� I�$�6 ��F

%5�$�� ����# I��=� +�2D�� /$ +� �G����)AHP (��� L���G#$. $ ��2� !#�0� *+� %2�0� /$ z� ����

%1�(� %�($� I�$�6 �2$ !�=1$ z2���� �� I�$�6+� ��0� ����$+1 �B .$ ��2� �? ��?�G�$�� �O s����

!��� $�J z2���� %2$+G�$ *�G# � �R# � I��6 . zZ#�7? ���� �R# ��?��4� /$ ^2 �? �� !5�� �?�G�$�� �]� %1�/ ��2�+ .4)�R� �2$�� 2$ !��� �� %B K0� �

%1�( I�$�6 �$�� ��2� �� � %�($� I�$�6 �$�� �� ^2+�# >�8�$ �� . ��5#�=� >�8�$ *��� ��� !J� �� ���

�? z2���� /$ ^2 �? �$�� [�� L+�|�� IF$�� � %k�2 � �?��4� %5�� */� �5#�=� ���� �� �O !)�0# !01

�2S�� �?/$ $S�$ >�� Expert Choice L���G#$ �+ .z� /$ � �+�� !2�)�$ � %1�( � %�($� I�$�6 %2�#���

%�($� I�$�6 �� f���� ��6pB$ �0�D �$����)��J �?�34k �? ( %�($� I�$�6 %����/$ A�+1 �(IFE)4 �

G��2� �? %1�( I�$�6 �� f���� �)!Q�� �?�$+2+0� � (�6 %����/$ A�+1 �%1�( I�$� (EFE)+� �$� . �

�? A�+1� I�$�6 /$ %G#�0� A�$ *�G#� L+� ��2 %1�( � %�($�!��� $�J /$ ^2 �? */� >�� *�G# �

� L+� !#�0� I�$�6A�+1 �? +� I�7M� ��B �O�� �? � �]�4G� *$/�$ b71 �O 92 �+6 ��$�� � A���� A�+1

+��� .�1� >�# *�G# � �G�$ �2 �+�� I�$�6 /$ 92 �? /� �� I2� �=� ��+�# >�8�$ : ��#$�� I�$�6 /$ ^2 �? ��

�� Analytical Hierarchy Process

�� Internal Factor Evaluation

�� External Factor Evaluation

Page 9: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

..> ����0 ��12# 34� �5�67�), ����� 8��9%:� 8��;6#��� ...

� /$ �/��G�$ *��+�?� �#�� �$��d) o�( ���� ( ��i )3�4k (+� L�$� .�? *�/�� /��G�$ >�0c *�G# �

o���Q�F /$ I��6# +� IQ�F >�# *�G# � >�� *�G�=� %#�� !=� �6�78� IO %�/� /��G�$ >�8�$�# � �5#

+2���)A�+1�?� i� V .( I�7M�/$ z�A�+1�?� IFE )%�($� I�$�6 %����/$ ( �EFE) I�$�6 %����/$

%1�( (��6pB$ ��� ��F�� ���w� �� �O� � �G(��%� +����� ��� >/ A�+1 �?� EFE� IFE ��2+M2 ��

��� T���� . %�G5� ��?��5?$ ���5� C+? �� ��F�� �2$%�($� I�$�6��+�# >�8�$ �� %1�( I�$�6 ��

)A�+1a .( s�O�� � %#�� /$ +4� ��F�� �2$ *�2�� ���)���?� T O W � S �� L+��O I��=� L���

��?��5?$SO) %71�0�( ST) %G��J( WO) ����=���$�O ( �WT) %4�$+�( !#� 2!�� .� �1�� ��� 2$ � �M�

%�($� I��6 ^2 �0�� ��5?$ �? ��0�'�� I��6 ^2 � ��F�� *�2�� � !#$ I�(� %1�(������ �S2

%�7O A�+1 ���5?$������ �S2 �� >�#�� ���5?$QSPM2 t�B �S2 +� ) A�+1_ .( ����� A�+1 �2$ �

���0�'�� ��5?$ �� <�=� %1�( � %�($� I�$�6 �2�# !��$�1 L�7� � %��� @��(AS3) ^2 L/�� � ��5?$ �?

�0c ���4��� �+ . L�7� +�2D�� �2$ �_ ���4� �� IJ$+F �� ^2 L�7� � �wO$+F ��2�Z��M�$ �2 !��$�1

[pB$ !��$�1%� ��� . !��$�1 �$�7� b71 /$ *�2�� � !��$�1 L�7� �B���� *�G# � �h�$�G#$ �? �� f����

IO(TAS4)>+]� ���4� �$�� %2��5� *$��6 �� � �5#�=�

5?$ �? �$�1$ �(�� � %��4� ��%� ��� .

�����

���XGJ$ �$���/$>S�G�� �4)�R� ��� L��+=� ���1 �+�� �]5B � %2�#���� �? ����O$27�%!#$ .

�]R�� ��� �� �X=�� %4�5B b����I��� :���O�

�� Input Stage

�� Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix

�� Attractive Scores

�� Total Attractive Scores

�� Kalout

�� �� %M#$ !��� ���M� � �2p�c�2� � ^7� 7'c� ��6���$ *�G��e� �� �� %�+4� >�� oD

�����# �]R� ���# �)�# $S? ��# )%{�� %4�5B ��$( ��O L��$ L��( ��� L�O � *�2�� >+�� �]R�� .

���1� �?%e2�� �}I��� S�� �]R�� %��?�� : � L/�� +1��� �]R�� � ���'M� %e2�� ����$ �$+F$ !#� ���# I��)$��$ +8�� *�|7? �]R�� %e2��

����2/L �?��$ *�|7? �]R�� � �4�J �$+0� +2/ L�$S� %G4�Q q�0� %O��c �4�J � ��0O �4�J ���D b���

�p�� /$ I5J >�0c L$S? �� T�4G�) �0� �� >�#��)���O� �?( ���J �� o��#D %]� +7=� E�F �5�$ oD

�$+0� >��� %�; >�# � o$�D � ��?�� � �$+0�!#$ . �2$ � %6�7G1$ ��?���G� !�7?$ �� �1�� �� � T�]=�

����'#�� /$ L+� E$�eG#$ �$�� �2�� �� $+G�$ ��$�$ *��� �� *�#�pOK0� �]R�� %6�7G1$ ���Q�X( �2��

I��=� � �2S8� ���XGJ$ ��?���G� zZ# � �G($���+� +?$�(.

���'#�� ��6pB$ /$ IQ�F \2�G�� �? *�'� %� +?�da 41$�� IO /$ +Q���0� $+5� /$ �$+0� �]R�� �� *

� *���O� 2$��7� !72S6 �]R�� �+�$. nn/nj /$ +Q� *��+��O+2�/����S� �2��� ���� �� � 2$ �41$�� �]R�� �

��O+� .jd $ %]��� � *$��� $ *��+���+2�/�� /$ +Q� I�M'� *��/%� �$ � �l/jj *��+��O+2�/�� /$ +Q�

%?��'�$� �p�X=� �$$�+���� .nn/n` /$ +Q� �+��O+2�/�� �41$�� �]R�� �� !6�# +�c �$�� �0�� *�

� +�G�$� ���6 +���O *��+��O+2�/�� s)�; +���� )jj/na+Q� .(41$�� ��0�$ ��( ��#$ ��� *nj/dn

+Q� �0�D ��� �+�D� a �� d ���� *�+�$� L�� � A�2 . �0�� A�F ��7?�ia/_a41$�� /$ +Q� � >p6$ *

��Q � �O +���7� %����D ����M�$ S�08� � ����� /$ +2�/�� !01 �2��� !($��� �� �k�F %��# ���+(

+�G�? �]R�� ������� ����M�$ . �$��$ /$ L��� �2$ $ s#��� �2������ dW �� iWW $S? �? �$/$ �� A�2

����(+���O >p6$ .�|7?� � !��J$ � %#�G#� ��2S?

�- Benka

�/ Pelaya

Sirch �0

Page 10: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

���� ��� �� � ������ ����� ����� ���� ������ �����! ���"# �$ ��%��� �&!'( ��)* �� �!+(�, !$- !!-

jl/ji *��+��O +2�/�� /$ +Q� dWW �� jWW A�2 $S?+� %��� @�� /� � ��� �? �$/$ �� .

����� �� ��� �� ��� ����� � �����

����O ���XGJ$ I��=� � �2S8� !01���O$2K� � /$ IM'G� %)+� %��4)�R� L��+=�Vi I�M'� ���G�

�$� ��� <�$� *$�G� T2�B �2$ /$ �� +� L�$�L �? �?�'� � *�#�pO ����'#�� /$ L��(��]]=� �$+� /$ *

�$� $�J I��=� � �2S8� ��� $ �4)�R� I=� . >�8�$ !01 � �O s]6 �� � C�F H� /$ A+� �2$ I��=� � �2S8�

%� �?���G� %��7� L+������ L���G#$ +����+ . /$ I5J�$� $+G�$ s]6 �� � C�F H� /$ L���G#$L �? �O %2

I��=� � �2S8� � �R( /��� s5#%� +���) l L�$�L+��O H�+e� ( � +2��� C�F %��5( ��� ��#$ ��

*���7B$ s2�k �8�G�)R( *$S�� �� `W @2$S�$ +Q� !��2 . ��+F L+� o�eG�$ A+� ��#$ �2$ ��`W /$ +Q�

�$�L �?��O ��1�� $ . �R�$d ��D�� *��#�� �)��4� %� @2�7� $ %��4)�R� L��+=� �$�� L+� �2$ � +?�

? �� �R�$ �]R�� ���XGJ$ A+� I��=� � �2S8� C+I��6 \�� %�G�57? s2$�k %��4)�R� : %#�G#� ��2S?

)*���� s�F��( %��76 ���]� ���#� /$ L���G#$ I2�7� 41$�� �p�X=� *$S�� +2�/�� ��4�� �$+4����Q�� � *

)�G����O s�F�� ( �R�$ IM� ��d+� %#�� : d( `dW/iWa}C _lj/aVn}V n_n/ii_Y=

P + na`/V_l_ D

$ �2 ~�R�$ �

D:�G����O s�F �� ��Q�� )���/�� t=(

Y:#�G#� ��2S? % *���� s�F �� )���/�� � t=(

V:+2�/�� ��4�� �$+4� )���/� t=(

C:�p�X=� *$S�� )�/� � t=(

P:%��76 ���]� ���#� /$ L���G#$ I2�7� )���/� � t=(

��� �� ����� �!���� "#�$� � %

I��=� � �2S8�%� *�'� �G��� ��Q ��? �O +?� %#�G#� ��2S? ��� %�G�57? s2�k $+]�

!���� +4� �� *��+��O+2�/��`in/W!#$ . *$S�� �2$

��� �G�$�� �� ��� K�]G�� %R( �R�$ L+��O *���!#$ %#�� .$ ��2 L��1��� /$ ��Q�� �c �? �O ��4� �

#� ��2S? +��2 @2$S�$ @2$S�$ S�� *��+��O+2�/�� %#�G%� +��2 .IM�i $ ���G� �� �2$ ��� %���#�� <(

%� @2�7� S�� *D <( �)��4� � +?�T��R� �R�$ n!#$ . �� *��� ��Q��$��� *���7B$ *��#�� <( C$�B$ `W

%� +�2�� $ +Q�+�O. n( VW/nnWl}X `jl/VVVlY=

$ �2��R�$ : Y=#�G#� ��2S? % �� �$+0� @e� /$ *��+��O+2�/��

*���� s�F)���/�� � t=( X=�G����O s�F �� !���� +4� )���/� t=(

����&� '�(#� ���(� � %�� �� ����� �!����

��?$S�$ >�� /$ %1��( \2�G� %#��L���G#$ ��� *�'�$� ��2S? ��� %�G�57? s2�k $+]� �O �

%#�G#� +2�/�� ��4�� �$+4� �� *��+��O+2�/�� di`/W} %� ��M4� %R( �R�$ L+��O *��� �O !#$ +��� . %�42

S�$ ���41$�� +�D � !� ��2S? *$S�� @2$ �� I2�7� � *�$� ��1� zM6 �R�$ *�'2$ �+8� �41$�� .IM�V <( %� @2�7� $ ���G� �� �2$ ��� %���#�� �)��4� � +?�

$ � S�� *D <( �R�j!#$ L+� �O� . �� *��� ��Q��$��� *���7B$ ��Q�� *��#�� <( C$�B$ `W $ +Q�

%� @2�7�+?�. j (X`jd/d`n}`Vd/Vldd_Y=

$�2�R�$ �: Y=#�G#� ��2S? % �� �$+0� @e� /$ *��+��O+2�/��

*���� s�F)���/� � t=( X=F �� *��+��O+2�/�� �$+4� ��� s� )���/� t=(

�"#�$� � ���&� '�(#� ���(� �!����

I��=� � �2S8� *�'� �G��� ��Q ��?$� $+]� �O � !���� �� +2�/�� ��4�� �$+4� ��� %�G�57? s2�k

nVj/W}!#$ . %R( �R�$ L+�?� *�'� $+]� �2$

Page 11: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

..? ����0 ��12# 34� �5�67�), ����� 8��9%:� 8��;6#��� ...

!#$ !���� +4� �� +2�/�� ��4�� �$+4� ��� ��M4� . ��

$2�� �O ��4� � ��4�� �$+4� L��1��� /$ ��Q�� @2$S�$ %� @?�O +2�/��+��2 . IM�a �� �2$ ��� *��#�� <(

%� @2�7� $ ���G�+?� . �R�$ � S�� *D <( �)��4�l !#$ L+� �g$$ .

l( X_li/i – jd`/ld=Y

Y=��� s�F �� *��+��O+2�/�� �$+4� )��/�� t=( X= �G����O s�F �� %?��1��� �]R�� /$ ��Q��

)���/��� t=( ������ �� %��)*�+� ,&-� �!����

I��=���)�� ���XGJ$ �� �$+0� @e� %?��1��� ��? �$+4� � %#�G#� ��2S? <#�G� ��� �R�$ %#�� Lh2� *��+��O+2�/�� �G� �O +?� %� *�'� +2�/�� ��4��

� ��2S? �$����� �� !5��%� ����G +��� . ���� ��%#�� �2��� �R�$ �2$ �$�� %��Ge� %k�� ��?

L��1��� �? *�M� � %4�5B ��?�%e2�� } %��?�� �$+4� �� +� �G��� ��� � �4)�R� ��� �]R��

/$ *��+��O+2�/���]R���2��� @2$S�$ A�5J � ��?��� I��=� � %��� @�� %k��. �2��� $+]� %k�� ��?

�� *��+��O+2�/�� <#�� !($��� �� I2�7� *$S�� �� �1�� T2�B /$ \2�G� � ���4�%� *��/D H��

�e'��+ .�2��� *$S�� %k�� ��?�� ��� ��� ��� ���

��� ��� � ��� $S? �G� �� +� �G��� ��� � A�2 ��� !J� �� �2��� @2$S�$ A�5J � *��+��O+2�/��

���� $�J �4)�R�. ��k�]� %�=�� K�#�� �$�� @e�*���O �$+0��2��� +2�� ��2S? <#�G� �� $ %k�� ��?

��7� ���k$ %#�G#� . IM�� �]R�� ��k�]� %�=�� $

@2�7��%+?�.

*��� �$+0� %?��1��� ��k�]� %�=��L+��O IQ$ �2$ ��2S? L���? �O !#$ K0� +�O $+�� @2$S�$ %5��1 ��?

%� %��� @�� 7� ��� @?�O *��+��O+2�/�� �2+�� � � �R]� �� !2�0� �$�� L��1��� /$ L���G#$ �� I2�7� �O +#

� /$����� � . �]R�� ��k�]� %�=�� �2/ �R# �5#�=� ��

�� P-Test

) �R�$ T5B� ( �� %#�� !=� �Q�6 %?��1��� H/$ �5#�=� ���?�� IM�+� ) �R�$�.(

*�7? Fp� �O �B%� �� @e� %?��1��� H/$ ����4)�R� *��/ � *���O �$+0� WWW�VdW�n`l�d � A�2

��D�� L���+ .��$�$ � ������ �g$$ ���� �� �4)�R� �2$���O$ �4#�� ���5?$ !2�2+�2 *���O �$+0� @e� K�

������ H� /$ �S2SWOT *���5( ��� /$ L���G#$ ��+� �G��� L�0� .��M�76 IQ�F *$��6 �� �O L����O �2$

%� �G(��� %�)� L��� !'? � ��J \�� %��� @�� +��� \�� � !Q�� @� !#�0� � ��G(�# *�� 34k

������ � %1�( I�$�6 ���w� �� +2+0� ���O$ �S22 K���� �4)�R� *��/ � %#�� !=� L��+=�.

������� ��� ������ ����� ��� ������� �� ���!

���"� #��$% �� ������ ����� ��� ������� ��

Page 12: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

���� ��� �� � ������ ����� ����� ���� ������ �����! ���"# �$ ��%��� �&!'( ��)* �� �!+(�, !$- !!@

�(

VR= (W iaVaj ) + (dWWWWiia_W) + (iWWWWW `___) + (idWWWW jd_d) + (VWWWWW dndi) +

(VdWWWW ajd_) + (aWWWWW VWaW) + (adWWWW iWa_) + (_WWWWW al) = WWW�VdW�n`l�d

+4� >�� �A�+1 �? %1�( � %�($� I�$�6 %����/$

� %?� L�7� �O � I�M'�*/� %�($� ��?�GO�� �� %?�

!��2�� >�8�$ %1�( � . ��? A�+1� i� V \2�G�

!#$ L+� �g$$ %1�( � %�($� I�$�6 %����/$ . �$2 �

A�+1 �?G#�0� A�$ *�G# � � %�($� I�$�6 /$ %

��� /$ L���G#$ �� >�� *�G# � +� K���� %1�(

*/� �� >$+J$ %�)� L��� %��5( � %�($� I�$�6 %?�

+2��� %1�( . �� I�$�6 /$ ^2 �? �� ������ *$/�$

I�$�6 ^�M�� �� *$/�$ b71 IQ�F �O +� b2/�� ��=�

^2 �� ��$�� %1�( � %�($�� +)A���� */� (��$2�

�� �� L���G#$ ��%5�$�� ����# I��=� +�2D�� /$)AHP (

$��� A���� b2/�� � L+� !#�0� I�$�6 %1�/ ��2�]�

*$/�$L�0� ����+� .A�+1 � �O *��|7?i ��Fp�

%� ������1 � �? */� �� �]R�� ��� �� �X=�� %4�5B �

in/W %G��J$ ����M�$ ��5� ��J �2�G70� *$��6 ��

� %���+( %GF��# � %?��L�������? L+76 �2��

s2�k �� �]R�� 34kiV/W ��82$ t�B � $/ A��G�$ ��?

����� �$�1$ ��Q � %��� �$��$ +�D� @2$S�$� �? �

�4#�����O$2K� */� �� �]R�� � in/W *$��6 ��

s#��� %��4� >+6 � s#����� �����5� � !Q�� �2��/��

���1� �? I($� � �]R�� %4�5B � �� �'O /$ E�( �

*/�i_/W %1�( +2+0� �2�G70� *$��6 �� +� �G(���.

*�7? �B ��Fp� %�($� I�$�6 %����/$ A�+1 � �O

%� ��� I�$�6 �2$ %�/� /��G�$ b71 IQ�F n`/V

%� +��� . <2$�� y�78� � �O !#$ *D ��5� �+6 �2$

f�]� �� !5�� ��G0� <2$�� /$ �]R�� ��J34k �? �

�� @��!#$ $��(�� L+� %� . %1�( I�$�6 ��� �

A�+1 �EFE L�7� �� %���G#� ai/V b71 IQ�F �

%��� @�� �$+2+0� %5�� [��� L+�?� *�'� %�/� /��G�$

�� ���J � L+�!Q�� !#$ %1�( ��? .

*�7? IM� � �O �Bd%� ��Fp� ��� *��/ �

������ �S2 �$� $�J %G��J <�=� � �]R�� . �2$ �

%]�$ �=� �� %�($� I�$�6 /$ IQ�F L�7� IM�) �=�

X ( �=� �� %1�( I�$�6 �$/��G�$ b71 IQ�F �

���76) �=�Y (%� $�J ���� . !�4k� $�]G#$

*D ��5� %G��J <�=� � %��4)�R� �]R�� ���5?$

I����G� �O !#$ �� �� �]R�� %�($� ��? �� I��]� ��

L+��� A���� �2 �G��2 %)�S� ��# %1�( �$+2+0� +�$ . /$

������ >���? � ���2$ �� %�G5� ��?��5?$ E$�eG#$ �S2

$� $�J !2�)�$ � %G��J <�=��.

���&����!�� �'�( ��� ������� �� #��$% ��

���)���%�* �'�+� ,-� ���./�0( 1�2�3( ��4�%

Page 13: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

..A ��� 8��9%:� 8��;6#��� ����0 ��12# 34� �5�67�), ��...

���� �� ��� ���� �������� (IFE)

�/��� �%'�5 �! !���%' �6! !���%'

�7 ��(S)

������ ����� ��� ����� ��! �� �"#�� (S1) $/% & $&/%

'� �*��+��� ,�-.#� 0� �120�* ����3 �4�- (S2) 5/% & &'/%

� �6#� ��7 8490 - ;3�< - >���! (S3) %?/% & 5'/%

� ��4� 8��� �49 @3 A3�BC��D E�2FG >���! (S4) %5/% 5 %H/%

I� @3 .2�@�� A�4� A�B230 �� A�J���120�* - ����� �! �K�L A��@ 0� �B���(S5) %'/% 5 %$/%

82 ��(W)

� ����� M2�9 0� ���!0 - �*��.N O�PL��9 O�P��Q3 R�S�J�3 �4�S (W1) '/% ' '&/%

�� ����� 0� �4�4� R3���1� @3 A3�BC��D ���D< 8.T (W2) %'/% ' %&/%

� U�9 U4"! �N�� 0� �3.VC �W�6Q3 M��K- A�4� .T�X� �S (W3) /% ' %&/%

� ����� 0� �2�Y��� - Z�S - ZWL R[�VX* 0� \�K (W4) %H/% ' ?/%

I� 04]^ �P��W� _0`� `^3�� @3 ��XS �6a�! (W5) %H/% ' ?/%

$�A��@�9 �B���W��S - ����� 0� M���� ��BC��D �6a3 �+4P� A�4�S b1]� c��2� ���

(W6) %&/% ' %?/%

d�C��D b"1P� A�2�W��30 �4�W^ ����� 0� M���� ��B(W7) %I/% ' %/%

?� e1� 0� �03FD �2���9 MV� �a4"N e1� A���W�3 8.T 04*4^32fX ����� (W8) %$/% ' '/%

��� � $H/'

���� �� ���� ���� �������� (EFE)

�/��� �%'�5 �! !���%' �6! !���%'

#9�� ��(O)

� e23`!3 - 3@ U�gPC3 ��� h�� ��Y23 ��4� �3�!3 .�<0�(O1) $/% 5 &?/%

�� ����� Z�S - ZWL M��K- �4�V� ) �i9�P9� ��i� ,30 M��iK- �4i�V� - A3.i��VS ,�j k3.L3

����� ((O2) %H/% 5 'd/%

� �*��+��� ,�-.#� 0� l��9 -�9 �6� ����� �m3 �4�- (O3) %5/% 5 %H/%

��D �� ����� �!��� R04a 0� 04]^ �3�� �@03 .�<0� ��0�N A3�BC�(O4) %&/% 5 '/%

�� ��BC��D �2��� �2@ R�X�9n* k3.L3 o2�� @3 ����� 0� �03FD �2���9 ) ��24i^ pW^ k3.L3

- (...O5 %I/% 5 I/%

$� ����� �W�6Q3 M��K- �� r9��P� �C@0- - �#2�s* `^3�� ��94* ) �-0 �� �J93 MX�G k3.L3

- ����� 0� 3.62 rC ���S�� �03`D�� OtC (... O6 %d/% 5 ' /%

�����+((T)

� ����� @3 u0�N �� R���V� Z�+� �� �3.VC e1� M��W� �s�� .C0 (T1) 5/% 5/%

��,��� @3 �N�� 0� Z��^ M���3 �4�S ����� �9�P9� ���(T2) '/% ' '&/%

� ����� r9��� �!��� 8.T - r9��� �S R�g�6�* 0�iN - ZiN3� 0� ����� ����� ��� 04]i^ @3 u

(T3) &/% ' '?/%

�04*4^3 M2�2.� v��� ���S�� w2 �4�S 2 �*��+��� ����� 0� fX(T4) /% ' ''/%

�����S�� 0� �*��+��� �a�T �T�WP�3 - ���"PQ3 �3-`S3 04]^ �.�+�^ ��94* ���(T5) %$/% ' '/%

��� � 5 /'

Page 14: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation
Page 15: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

���� ��� �� � ������ ����� ����� ���� ������ �����! ���"# �$ ��%��� �&!'( ��)* �� �!+(�, !$- !!(

<�=� � $�1$ I��J ��?��5?$ �2�+� ���� �� %G��J

T���� ��F�� � L�0� �� +� Hp� %�($� I�$�6 /$ ����

A�+1 � L+� !#�0� %1�( �a %����76 %2�?��5?$

L+��O I��=� K�� <#�� ��� L+�'2+�$ . ��#$ �2$ ��

��5?$ \�� %71�0� �h�$�G#$ �0c ��5?$ @� %G��J

L+�'2+�$ %4�$+� ��5?$ �# � ��$�O ����=� %����76

+� .%G��J ��?��5?$ !2�)�$ �� !2��6 �� )<�=� ST(

� \2�G� I��=� ���� �� %��2�� ��F�� � +2��� Hp�

������ A�+1 O �S2%7 A�+1 �� >�#�� ���5?$

QSPM L���G#$ %G��J <�=� �����0c ��?��5?$ /$

���.

�� �� ������ ���!" ��#$� "���%��&' (��%�� �� ���)� *+� ,����� -.�� -��/0��SWOT

*�7? %� ��Fp� �O �B ������ A�+1 � ~��� �S2

� %�($� I�$�6 �2�# ����� +� Hp� ���5?$ %�7O

seG�� <�=� ��?��5?$ �� %#�� !=� <�=� %1�(

)%G��J (��� �5#�=� .$ ��2 !#�0� �7k ���� �

$� I�$�6 %��7� *��O ��$ +2��� @��O %1�( � %�(

L�7� *$��6 !=� I��6 �? L+�$�/�� �2 L+��O !2�]�

o�1) L�7� A�+1 � �O� C��F �� AS L+� �e'�

!#$ (���� $�J ��� +� %2$�1$ ��5?$ o�eG�$ � . *$S��

�$�7� �� �$����� �2$� �� �+� %?�/��G�$ .

o�1 L�7� �$/��G�$ o�k ��)AS ( �? */� � I��6)A�+1 /$ L+� �G����� �?� IFE � EFE( !��$�1 L�7�

�2 IOTAS �#�=� �+ . !��$�1 �$�7� b71 /$ ��$�$ ��? �$�1$ !2�)�$ ��5?$ �? IO2 ^+� ���4� . �2$ �

!�e� ��5?$ �G#$)(ST1 *�7�� �� " �2���# s�1 �� %M��� �p�0�� �g$$ T2�B /$ %Q�X( @e� �$��

!'�/�� L�� s)�J � A���$ �$��$� � �+� %��B�)�# �� � ��� ���#$ " /��G�$ ��iV/d �h�$�G#$ *$��6 �� ���O$ �4#�� !�e�2 >�� �h�$�G#$ �$+0� @e� � K�

��56 ��" b2��Q �4#�� T2�B /$ %��� ��?�� ���F$ <2$�� ��50� ���� �� �]R�� � �2��D �O � ��/�#

%�=� �$��$ %G'�4� "� �� IO !��$�1 L�7ia/_ � (ST3) y�k�� �� >�# ��5?$ �2 " !���$ �pG6$ !01 � Hp�

����1 %��4� � %��76 �M�$ �2��� �]R�� ������� ��? %��7)$ ��� � %�� ��4�$ �" /��G�$ ��W_/_ *$��6 ��

���O$ �4#�� ������ %2$�1$ !2�)�$ ����#2 �$+0� K�+� L+2S���.

����)%

SO,����" ,123�4�

WO

�#3��%

WT

�5��6�

ST

٣ � �

٣

٢

١

IFE= �٩/٢ EFE= ٣١/٢

١ ٢ IFE

EF

E

٣١/٢

�٩/٢

Page 16: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

.>/ ����0 ��12# 34� �5�67�), ����� 8��9%:� 8��;6#��� ...

: �/ ;� �<=�% �/��� �<�'� �%'�5 >�0<(

7#$ 8�9�(W) :�6 8�9�(S)

)W1(� ������ ������ ����� ���� ....

) W2(� ���� ����� �� �������� ����� ��!

)W3(� �"�#�� $�%&' ���* �!�+�� ...

)W4(� ,-�' ,"� /�0+1 2� 3%&

)W5(� ��+� 4#5�6 2�78 ���%"� 92:* :8�� ��

)W6(� ;��<<���� �#<<5� �=�<<� ���<<�� >�7<<

��?��"��� ' 4-@? 2� $%������� ��A*�BC ; )W7(� ;��<<���� >D<<�� ��<<B�"?��2 ��<<�"8

4-@? 2� $%���

)W8(� 4B�� $0� �5�DE F�* ��?�"�� ��!

F�* 2� ;2�G�2�1�8�BH+4-@?

)S1(�*C�� 4 �� �DI? �%��� ;4-@? ��6 4*

)JS(��1�%=�� K�'�I 2� ��B2�1 4�?*� ���'

)S3(��#I �?L ��2 ' M��� ' N?��6

)S4(� ;�<< �� ����<<���� O�BG<<P N<<?��6

��* ���

)S5(� �� �B���* ���* ���B�2 �� ���; �%���

��B2�1 '��&�� ��� 2� 4-@? ��?��6

��� ����

���� ����

,����" ,13�4� -�0��/0��(WO) /0�� ����)% -�0��(SO) �;�3 �0(O) Q� ��<"! 2�<�6� �B�?1 ' 4-@? $�?� R@ ;�-12�

�*��2 SB�� �� ���2 T/�� 4 �� ' .....)WO1.(

J� �B�<<<"?��2 $<<<0� 4<<<-@? ��<<<��* O��<<<�

���0� 4* ;�'2' ��������)WO2.(

U� V*��8 ' �':� 4�01 4 �� �<6�% $<0� �<"?��2 ;

*C��4 ��4-@? ;������ ;)WO3.(

W� $<0� 4<-@? ;��<���� $<�=�1 3<�#�1 X��%1

�<B� ��<YB� ' ;��<���� $B�B� Z�� 4���* XB'�1

%�1 ;�� $E�4 B�$%?5 X)WO4.(

[� ;�� ;�"���1 �� X�+� K�0* ����< �<� ���< ;

��<<0� )NGO( ' $<<%��� ��<<���� \<<#� $<<0�

��2�E ' �#E�� �������� �B�"?��2 )WO5.(

� ' ,�+���P X��%1 ]�<� �<* 4<-@? ��B^�=�8� ���1

�<&�-1 �_8��� ��� 2� ;������ ��* $�6�` X��%1

$B�'�I 4* 4��1 �* ���0� ��+B� ;��)WO6.(

Q� K�0* ;��� �� ,�+���P �� ��B2�1 ' �%��� ;�

��<<YB� 2�<<a? 4<<* ���0<<� F<<�* �<<�?��6

$�%�� �� ��2� R@ FB�:6� ' �#b� �B�� ;

�#I ���6�)SO1.( J� 4%�1 4��� �<� K�2 �<* �<�8�1 �<* 4<-@? ;

;��<<���� ;�<<� $B�<< 4<<* �<<��� c��<<��

��?��6 ' ��B2�1 4�?*�' $%���)SO2.(

U� 2� d��< 4<-@? ;��<���� $B�< :�0Y1

�1�%=�@ K�'�I �=���)SO3.(

W� ���<6� �?L N?��6 ' ��2 ' M��� �� K��e��

���* ���7�P 2� �#I4 �� ;��<���� 4%<�1 ;

2� $%���4-@? )SO4.(

)O1(� ' �� f�b�<<�� ;�<<� g�<<� ��<<YB�

��* ���6� ��2� FB�:6�

)O2(� ��<�0* ' ,-�' ,"� $�%&' ���0*

$�%&'�� K�24-@? ���� ; )O3(� d��< '�< �# �%��� �h� ���'

�1�%=�@ K�'�I 2�

)O4(� 2�<5 2� 2�78 ;��* ;�2� ��2�

��2�E �������� 4* 4-@? �6�%

)O5(� S<B�� �� 4-@? 2� ;2�G� 4B��

�+<<�i1 c��<<�� ;��<<���� �B�<<?* �<<B�

)O6(� �<��2' ' �<IB�e1 :<8�� 4%�1

4-@? �"�#�� $�%&' �* \�?�) c��<��

4<���* ;2�:<��* �X� ;'2 �* ��� $+�P

' 4-@? 2� ��#B \�(...

�#3��% -�0��/0��(WT) �5��6� -�0��/0��(ST) ����)%: (T) Q� "� ������< $<0� A*�<BC ;�<� ��<�2� ��?��

4-@? ;������ $�%&')WT1.(

J� 4��1 �* 4-@? 2� XB�6�2�8 ;�� g�� �?�* F�P

2�<a? 4<* 4<-@? �<�?��6 ' �%��� ;��2��E� 4*

F<<<<�* ' �<<<<�='� ;2�G<<<<� 4B��<<<< \<<<<#�

�5�DE)WT2.(

U� ' �!�<"��� �;��D<��� ;�<� $B�='� ���"� j�I=

<<� 2� ���0<<� F<<�* �<<�?��6 ' ;�<<�=�8 ;�<<� g�

Z��)WT3.(

Q� �� �5�D<<E F<<�* ;2�G<<� 4B��<< \<<#�

$7<���* K2'� �<* ����<* /�0+<1 4<k�2� SB��

��� ��?� \=�� 2� f�e�� ;2�G��' ' � ��l��

4=� 4� ')ST1.(

J� ZB�?<5 4%�1 SB�� �� ��* N?��6 ;����

��<�0* 2�<a? 4<* 4-@? 2� XB�6� 2�8 ' 2����

7�% AB����#I ���6� ��)ST2.(

U� 2�<�6� �B�<?1 �$<�?� ;/�!� $0� 2� O/1

4*C�� �6�% ' ��"! 2� 4-@? ;������ ;��

�##"=� X�* ' �# ��%*�)ST3.(

W� 4%<<<�1 $B�B�<<< Z�<<<� 4<<<���* XB'�<<<1

2�1�8�BH+ K�0* 2�a? 4* Z*�? �� \�?� ;���

2�h� XB��"8 �* ��?��6 ' �%���)ST4.(

[� ��YB� ;�<?� �<* �#b<� �<B�� ;�� $5�6

,�+<<���P ��<<��* �<<?L N<<?��6 ' �<<%��� ;�<<�

$���<5 ���� ZB�?5 �� $B�"� ]�� �* 4-@?

���6� ���0 �� ;��� F�P ' ��?��6 $B�� ��

���0� 4-@? �� m2�E 4* �#I)ST5.(

)T1(- 4* ���0� F�* $�%"� �e? ��2

4-@? �� m2�E 4* ���0 ,�=� (T2)� ��<<�� �� �<<E�* 2� ,<<�8 $<<�?�

K��� 4-@? ���� ;��

)T3(� �<6�% ��<! ' \<�?�� �b�#�1

4*C�� \�? ,<E�� 2� 4-@? �%��� ;��

2�78 �� m2�E '

)T4(� $B�B�<< Z�<<� 4<<���* n<<B ��<<��

2�1�8�BH+�1�%=�@ 4-@? 2�

)T5(� 4<5�! �!�"��� ' ;��D��� ;�':��

4<<���* 2� �1�<<%=�@ %<<�1 ;�<<� ;�<<�=�8 4

2�78

Page 17: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

���� ��� � ����� ����� ���� ������ ���� �� � ������! ���"# �$ ��%��� �&!'( ��)* �� �!+(�, !$- !$&

: �/)� �%�6�� 1���1��?�'� �@A*QSPM)(

������ST1 ������ ST2 ������ ST3 ������

ST4 ������ST5

�������� � ��� �

AS TAS AS TAS

AS TAS AS

TAS

AS TAS

:�6 �0

����� �� �� ��� ���� �

����� ��� )S1(

��/�

��/�

� ��/� � ��/� � ��/� �

��/�

����� �� ����� ����� ����

���!��)"S( ��/� � �/� � �/� � ��/� � ��/� � �/�

�# $�%� � &��' � *����

+�)S3( ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

,� -��./��0 1��23 *����

��� $��� ��%)S4( ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � �/� � ��/� � ��/�

.��� ,� ���,�� -��� -� -�4�

��� ����� � ���� 5 .����

�6�7 -��, �� �����)S5( ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

7#$ �0

8 97��% 8 9��:� ;�<�4�� ���<

��� =��% �� ���� � ����>

�����)W1(

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

,� -��./��0 ��0' $�?

������ �� ����� ;

�����)W2( ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

@�+:� =��6� -��� �?�A��<

B�� >�� �� ���C/

B�%)W3(

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

D�<� D@7 ;E�CA� �� F�6

����� �� ��G��� �)W4( �/� � �/� � ��/� � ��/� � �/� � �/�

� �A< �+H�� I�J� JK��� ,

��LK 9��@�)W5( �/� � �/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

+H� !�9� -���< M�L�

����� �� =���� ��./��0

-��,�% .���@��< � ���

N����)W6(

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

M�9� -���@���� ���@K

����� �� =���� ��./��0

)W7(

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

H�> O�� -���@�� $�?

O�� �� ���20 �����% =C�

����� PA�����K�)W8(

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

�;�3 �0

� �, B�Q9/� ��� R�� ��G��

��� ����� ��'�� O��J��)O1(

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

Page 18: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation
Page 19: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

.>= ����0 ��12# 34� �5�67�), ����� 8��9%:� 8��;6#��� ...

,���� ����<���� ,�� -��/0�� �=�" -.��QSPM)(

������ST1 ������ ST2 ������ ST3 ������ ST4 ������ST5 ��� ������ ����� �

AS TAS AS TAS AS TAS AS TAS AS TAS

� �� ��� ����� �����

� ��� ) �!"���� #�$% &!"�!

'$( #!* ����� ����� �

� ��� +,-.,� (O2

�/� � ��/� � �/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

�-, +1� +���2 -3! ��%�

#��"4� *� 5-�,

+6$�7$��)O3(

��/� � �/� � ��/� � �/� � ��/� � ��/�

*� *�89 '!-� ':*! "�;*�

�� � ��� +<-�� =*�>

+%*$? �!-@A�-B)O4(

��/� �

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

:! � ��� *� '*!CB �D$�-,

E�,F6 &!"�! GD-2 -D: =$

'-@A�-B +D$��) H�9 &!"�!

� '-D�9 (...O5

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

/,�� � ��S� JK��� ��%��

@�+:� =��6� �� T%��9�

�����) �� 4%� =A�3 U��7�

T/ ���<�� ���J0�� 8V/ ���

� ����� �� ��+� (...O6

�/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

)%:����

���C/ O�� =��@� S�� �/�

,� X��> �� ;���C� D�!� ��

�����)T1(

��/. � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

,� >�� �� D��K =���� ���<

���� ����� %�9%� ���)"T( ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

���� $�? � T%����< ;�Q�+��

����� T%��� ���� ���� ��� �

��LK ,� X��> � D>�� ��)T3(

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

=����� Y��� ���<�� Z� ���<

����� �� PA�����K�

���!���)T4(

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

�H�? ?�@9�� � ���9:� ���J<�

���<�� �� ���!��� ��%�� ���

��LK ���!�K)T5(

��/� � ��/� �

��/� � ��/� � ��/� � ��/�

Y@� � J ��/� J ��/� J ��/� J ��/� J ��/�

��/0�� -���� ���?�� � � � � @ � A � � � <

Page 20: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation
Page 21: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

���� ��� �� � ������ ����� ����� ���� ������ �����! ���"# �$ ��%��� �&!'( ��)* �� �!+(�, !$- !$!

����� � � ���

��/�# ����O $ K�2���O$ !�2/ <�=� *�#����O

%� !4�5B �� ������ �O $�c +�#��� K�2���O$ ��?

t�B A�Q$ ��G#$ � L+� �S2 !#$ ��J %G(��� >��

L�0� �7k �pG6$ �� !4�5B /$ s#��G� �$���

%?��D H/$ �� !5�� %��76 ��? b���� ^2N�)�O$ ��?

s?$�� �2$ /$ �G�2�� !���Q �� %��?�� �$��� � %4�5B

+��� $������� S�� . �4)�R� �2$ +� L��$ �O �B *�7?

H/$ ���4� C+? �� ��1��� b���� ���XGJ$ ��? %?

��?��5?$ �2�G0� �g$$ ���� �� *���O �$+0� @e�

%�($� I�$�6 �� %�G5� %G2�2+�)��J 34k � �? �? ( �

%1�( I�$�6)!Q�� �$+2+0� � �? ( H� �� I#�� ��

������ +�# >�8�$ �� ���5?$ �S2 . x�=�� ��� �2$�

�+�7�$�� � o�8� �G�$� *��/�# � �$��$ ��? <5��� ��?

� �$�� K�2���O$ �4#�� ��?��5?$ �g$$ � ���� K�7X

!��� $�J ��� +� �]R��.

����'#�� b2/�� �� ��2� %2�#/$ ��� *�#�pO ��?

+� Hp� �k�]� �wO$+F *��/ � �$+0� �]R�� *�41$��

!#$�(� S�� � �k�F A�F !�4k� � *��k�]G� ��?

K�7X� �/�# ���� $�J �1�� ��� �?.

$ �2�G70� /$ �4)�R� �2$� �G��2�� >�8�$ ���$+J

��� �$+0� @e� ���XGJ$ L�])�� *$�� � I����G� @8�# .

!2��+=� �� �1�� �� �$�S�$ S�� � �]R�� %G�2/ ��?

���XGJ$– �k�F A�F � %��4)�R� L��+=� %6�7G1$

%��?�� �2 %4�5B b���� /$ >$+O ��?} /$ �]R�� %e2��

$ <2$�� � %G�2/ *$�� ���� �4#�� �$�� AD L+2

�$+� $�J !4�5B ������� . TB��� /$ %(�� ��� �2$ �

��� /$ ��) �2�O *�|7? �]R�� %4�5B %?��1���

>�#�� !4�5B ������� �4#�� %7g$� ����M�$ $�]G#$

%� %��2/$ s#����� SO�7G� E��� �� ���.

b���� ���XGJ$ �$���/$ /$ IQ�F \2�G� �2�G70�

e� %?��1���/$ +���56 *���O �$+0� @:

} �$��$ �# �� �]R�� /$ *��+��O+2�/�� �$+4� ���

�$� ��1� %��4k %��( %��� f�5�$)iln/W} =r(

} �]R�� /$ *��+��O+2�/�� �$+4� � �$��$ �p�X=� ���

�$� ��1� %��4k %��� f�5�$ ) ���/�} =r(

� �$�� ��7=G� ��2S? � �$��$ !��M# I=� ��Q�� ���

# �$� ��1� ��J ���� K�]G�� f�5�$ �]R�� �� ��

)���/�=r(

� /$ �0�D L���G#$ *$S�� � *��+��O+2/�� +�D� ���

�$� ��1� %��4k ��M4� f�5�$ �]R��)���/�} =r ( �

� ���'#�� I�7M� /$ IQ�F \2�G�� �? +?� %� *�'�

2��� ���4� �O� �$ *$S�� �� �� $S? �? �$/$ �� A�2

���( /$ +2�/�� �$�� �2��� *$S�� �2�� s#���

Q�6� �? �$+0� @e� %4�5B �M� �!#$ .

H� �$�1$ /$ z�SWOT!2�)�$ � �2�+� � +�� �

�h�$�G#$ �?��0�'�� �?� *��+���� K�7X� !01 �2/

!4�Q �4#�����O$2K� �k�6 �$+0� @e� � %� ��� :

} ��Q�� ���'� t�B �? �$�1$ �� >$+J$ /$ @��

��� !���� ���4� �������*$�� �? %R�=� L�])�� �

� $�J �1�� ������ .

}� !2��6 �� � 2$ ������� �4#�� b�$�� ��71 /$ �M�

*$��6 %��?�� I2��� *���'O�%� ��� %��4�

41$�� �� ������� TB��� %��� ��?�� �G�2��� %� *

2$� %�+�/ S�� � ��?�� �2$ *��7� ���8� !Q�� +�$�� �

<�=� +?� $�J *$������ �� $�� $ �? . %?+����#

��? !�)�4� �4#�� � �$+0� �2�O %���$��� ��?�G#�

�� %�G5����O$2K���G��M# �2$ I($� �� L �? ��Q�

�2S? @?�O �7k +�$�� %� ���7)�6 +�07� ^2� �? v6��

�]R�� *����� %G'�4� <2$�� ��50� ��� A�F ��6 �

?�� �6��$ �+��� ���� S�� %��� %�; �� .

} �4#�� � %��2$/�� �� �1�� ���O$2K�/�F L �? �

)��� %1�(� %�($�� �$�'�?$ � K0� $ K0� �2$ !#

3�Ge� �p�M'� � �?��0� ��M7? � %��?�7? +��/���

�$� . /���$ *�01� %G��G�2$ �����5� ����O �� �1�� ��

��0�'��%� ��� %XXe� !2�# ^2 %��4� �$��

���1� �?*��/ �� �$+0� @e� ������� � ���� L+�/ ��?

$L +�$ �/$���.

Page 22: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

.>> ����0 ��12# 34� �5�67�), ����� 8��9%:� 8��;6#��� ...

}������� ��$� ��]�]=� >�S) �� �����# I�7M� C+?

��M�76 �� ���� ���� �� ��6pB$ !2�2+�@e� �?

/�F %#/�� � %#��L �? � ������� TB��� �

L�0� ���� \2�G� /$ *D /$ !2�7F �$�� @e� �? %����76 �

%��# ypB$ � %����$ b���� �4#�� %��2$/�� ����

!#$ %���7? .

} �4#�� %G�2/ <�=� �5��2/ ��D�� ���� �������

5B ��!4 �g$$ �$�� >/ <2$�� *��D K?$�� �

H$S� �� ��?L �$ �4#�� �$��$ %#�� ���O$2K�

%��4)�R� L��+=�.

References

- Abedinzadeh, N. 2004. Comparing of economical valuation for Saravan forestly park and Rasht’s park-e-shahr and presentation management measures.Thesis of master science. Islamic Azad University, Tehran Sciences and Research branch, 183P.

- A’rabi, M. 2005. Handbook of Strategic planning. Publication of Office of Cultural researches, 195P.

- Asheim, G.B. 2000. Green National Accounting: Why and How? Environment and Development, Economics, 5:25-48.

- Chen, W. and Y. Hong. 2004. Recreation demand and Economic value: An application of Travel Cost Method for Xiamen Island, China Economic Review, 15: 398-406.

- Chin, C. 2002. Economic Evaluation of Recreation Benefits at Fushan Botanical Gardan, 17(3):375-85.

- Fleming, C.M. and C. Averil. 2008 .The Recreational value of Lake McKenzie, Fraser Island: An application of the Travel Cost Method, Tourism Management, 11(2):113-121.

- Latifi osquie, N. 2006. Economical- Outdoor recreation valuation of Tabriz’s Ounebn-e-Ali forest park. Thesis of master science, Islamic Azad University, Tehran Sciences and Research branch, 178P.

- Lauros, P. 1999. Encyclopedia of Science, Gotenborgen Press,vol:33, 209p.

- Mehrabian, A. 2005. Tourism industry, problems and solutions. Iran. Tehran: Kongereh Publication, 202P.

- Mojabi, S. 2005. Economical valuation of Pardisan and Lavizan forest park. Thesis of master science. Islamic Azad University, Tehran Sciences and Research branch,170P.

- Moons, E. 2003. The Development and Application of Economic Valuation Techniques and their use in Environmental Policy, A Survey Katholieke University Leuven, 112p.

- Saudi shahabi, S. 2005. Assigning outdoor recreation value of Anzali wetland by Travel Cost Method

(T.C.M) and estimation it’s tourism carring capacity. Thesis of master science. Islamic Azad University, Tehran Sciences and Research branch,168P.

- Shadmanlahiji, F. 2005. Economical outdoor recreation valuation of Amircalayeh wetland. Thesis of master science. Islamic Azad University, Tehran Sciences and Research branch216P.

- Shrestha, K. 2007. Valuing Nature-based Recreation in Public Natural areas of the Apalachicola River region Florida, Journal of Environmental Management vol 85: 977–985.

- Yaghmaiyan, M. 2003. Tourism in Iran. Publication of cultural heritage research centre: Tourism and Handicraft industries of Iran235P.

- Zandersen, M. and F.S. Jensen. 2005. Benefit Transfer Over time of Ecosystem Values: The Case of Forest Recreation, Paper Presented at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Conference in Bremen,17- 19 June :23-26.

Page 23: 329 - دانشگاه تهران · 2020. 9. 2. · 345 Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 63, No. 4, 2011, pp.329-345 Economic Valuation

345-329.pp, 2011, 4. No, 63. Vol, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, Natural EnvironmentalJournal of 345

Economic Valuation of Outdoor Recreational Resources of Shahdad District of Kerman in order to Presentation

Ecotourism Development Strategic Planning

S. A. Jozi*1, S. Rezaian2, M. Irankhahi3 and M. Shakeri4 1 Department of Environment, Faculty of Technical and Engineering, University of Islamic Azad-

North of Tehran Branch, I.R. Iran 2 Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agricultures and Natural Resourses,

University of Islamic Azad- Shahrood Branch, I.R. Iran 3 Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Environment and Energy, University of Islamic

Azad- Sciences & Research Branch, I.R. Iran 4 Department of Environmental Management, University of Islamic Azad- Bandar Abas Branch,

I.R. Iran (Received: 02 March 2010, Accepted: 13 March 2011)

Abstract This study was performed in order to provide a strategic development plan for ecotourism in

Shahdad District of Kerman Province. Thus cultural, historical and natural attractions of the region and its surrounding areas were studied and identified initially. By completing Clawson Questionnaire in the form of Travel Cost Method (TCM), valuation and analysis of ecotourism demand index of the considered region was carried out. Considering the mentioned aim a number of 220 Clawson questionnaires at the time of maximum recreational demand (March, 2008 till April, 2008) was filled out in the study area. Based on performed calculations the recreational value of Shahdad District of Kerman was estimated equal to 5,698,250,000 Rial per month at the time of the study. Subsequently in order to compiling and presenting the quantitative strategies of ecotourism development the strategic planning method of SWOT was applied. This method is based on identification of internal factors (Strengths and Weaknesses) as well as the external ones (Opportunities and Threats) of the under studied area. In this regard the internal and external factors were specified using Delphi Method. After identification stage, the internal and external factors were arranged in the form of Internal Factors Evaluation (IFE) and External Factors Evaluation (EFE) Matrices and then scoring and weighing of the mentioned factors were carried out using EXPERT CHOICE Software and Analytical Hierarchy Process Method (AHP). The results obtained from noted above matrices were confirmed that despite the existence of unique natural and cultural attractions which potentially can convert the region as recreational pole of desert areas of the country due to deficiencies like lack of infrastructural facilities, failure introduction and advertising, the under investigation area is placed in competitive situation (ST Strategy). Moreover with the aim of integrating and scrutinizing information derived from internal and external evaluation, the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) was implemented. As regards the results of the noted matrix three strategies were suggested which among them the attraction of private sector investment through banking facilities with long return periods, national wealth transfer in the form of ninty-nine years documents with score of 5.12 were recognized as the most important strategies of ecotourism development in the region over a twenty year period.

Key words: Economic Valuation, Ecotourism, Strategic Planning, Travel Cost Method, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Shahdad District of Kerman

*Corresponding author: Tel: +98 912 6194676 ,Fax: +98 21 22977958 , E-mail: [email protected]