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MEMORANDUM

TO: Fares Kallas

FROM: Brown Lloyd James

RE: Crisis Communications Analysis

It is clear from US government pronouncements since the beginning of the publicdemonstrations in Syria that the Obama Administration wants the leadership inSyria to survive. Unlike its response to demonstrations in some other countries inthe region, there have been no US demands for regime change in Syria nor anycalls for military intervention, criticism has been relatively muted and punitivesanctionsby not being aimed directly at President Assad--have been intended

more as a caution than as an instrument to hurt the leadership.

However, the tone of the Administrations statements has grown noticeablyharsher in recent weeks and may be nearing a tipping point that could make areassessment of the US position towards Syria inevitable. One potentialbellwether of this shift is the transformation in the public statements of USSenator John Kerry, the Administrations de facto point man on outreach to Syria.Senator Kerry has begun to publicly backtrack his often-repeated confidence inthe leaderships ability to reform.

Media coverage of the situation in Syria has tracked with the Administrations

political arc. US media coverage of events in Syria was initially marginal, but hassince moved closer to the front of the newspaper and the top of the broadcastnews. This not only reinforces the Administrations change of tone, it isemboldening critics--who maintain that Syria's reform efforts are not sincere--andbuilding up pressure on the US government to take further, more drastic stepsagainst the country.

Assessment of Syrias Communications:Strategically, Syria has had an imbalance in its communications approach sincethe beginning of the crisis. If hard power is necessary to quell rebellion, softpower is needed to reassure the Syrian people and outside audiences thatreform is proceeding apace, legitimate grievances are being addressed andtaken seriously, and that Syrias actions are ultimately aimed at creating anenvironment in which change and progress can take place.

No one within the leadership seems to own the reform agenda from acommunications standpoint. Beyond the government reshuffle and thePresidents two dramatic speeches, reform has taken a back seat to theimmediate political crisis, which dominates headlines and the publics perception

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of events. Domestically, This may result in a situation in which the demonstratorshave been sent back to their houses, but predominantly out of fear rather thanconviction that their government is responsive to their concernsa recipe forrestiveness and instability going forward. Here in the US and the west, theimbalance will embolden critics and reinforce those who dont believe reform is

sincere.

Recommendations:Syria seems to be communicating with two hands. One is offering reform and theother, rule of law. Rule of law is a fist. Reform is an open hand. Right now the fistappears to the outside world, and probably to many Syrians, as though it is tentimes bigger than the outstretched palm. They must be brought into betterbalance.

Reform-oriented outreach must be dramatically improved, at home and abroad,or else the credibility of these effortsand a key part of the Presidents appealand popularity among the peoplewill be diminished. Refocusing the perceptionof outsiders and Syrians on reform will provide political cover to the generallysympathetic US Government, and will delegitimize critics at home and abroad.

o In our view, the President needs to communicate more often and with

more finely-tuned messaging and the First Lady needs to get in the game.The absence of a public figure as popular, capable, and attuned to thehopes of the people as Her Excellency at such a critical moment isconspicuous. The key is to show strength and sympathy at once.

o The reform program does not yet have a face or brand. A public, visible

campaign should be launched, even while the crisis continues, to engageordinary Syrians in reform. This will keep people focused on the future andremind Syrians and the world of the Presidents hopes and expectationsfor the country.

o The campaign should deploy street teams in communities to poll

citizens on their reform priorities and ideas; each team member canpost their experiences online or on social media to create a crosscurrent to the criticisms that dominate those mediums.

o This campaign should include a listening tour w FL and PR

together. They can make unannounced stops that carefully engagefamilies and young people.

o The campaign should create a reform echo-chamber by

developing media coverage outside of Syria that points to thePresidents difficult task of wanting reform, but conducted in annon-chaotic, rational way. The conditions for reform include peace

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and stability. These stories can be developed through directinterviews with the President and other senior advisors, op-ed andcommentary articles written by credible third parties. This coveragewill rebound into Syria.

o The campaign should be branded with a forward-looking title, such

as Syria al-Yaum, Syria Bukra.

o Communications can also be improved on the security side. President

Assad has ordered investigations into troops and security forces thatdefied his command not to fire on unarmed civilians. The leadershipshould make a very public, visible show of punishing/firing/indicting troopsthat violate his orders. It would be a way of unequivocally showing thatanyone who breaks the law--whether they be demonstrators or soldiers--will be held accountable. It will also demonstrate his fairness and hiscommittment that his objective is to restore calm and civility so that reformcan take place.

o Syria must improve its ability to contain negative media stories circulated

by opposition figures living outside Syria. This includes countering rumors(such as the recent example that stated Her Excellency has left Syria forLondon) and the daily torrent of criticism and lies. Such aprofessionalized, through capability would include:

o 24-hour media monitoring and response system should be in place

with assets in UK and US markets.o Social media sites should be monitored and false sites should be

challenged and removed.

o A steady, constantly updated messaging document that containstalking points geared to latest developments.

o Efforts should be made to convey normalcy and a contrast to current

news depicting Syria as being on the verge of chaos.

Structure:

A crisis communications structure should be developed to help manage dailycommunications. Daily messages, statements and press releases should bedeveloped by this team and disseminated worldwide.

Messaging:As suggested above, messaging should be evaluated on a daily-basis. From ageneral standpoint, Syria should:

o Continue to stress that the majority of its people have legitimate

grievances that the leadership wants to address. However, appeal toSyrians patriotism and emphasize that there is no need to destroy the

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country to achieve goals that everyone shares: a free and prosperouscountry.

o Acknowledge that the violence taking place is regrettable. But the

leadership did not seek this. The leadership is obligated to protect Syriaand to create the conditions of calm necessary for reform to take place.

o Continue to express confidence in the future, and that the crisis is waning.