3.2 How and why is the demand for energy changing?

• Economic • Social • Technological

• Economic • For all countries, no matter what their present stage of development, demands for energy are rising.

World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 57 percent between 2004 and 2030. Graph shows the most rapid growth in energy demand for nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), especially in non-OECD Asia, where strong projected economic growth drives the increase in energy use. http://www.reliableplant.com/Read/6509/world-energy-use-forecast-to-rise-57-from-2004-to-%2730

• An increased dependence on energy imports means that the cost and supply of a vital resource for our economy slips further and further out of our control. Moreover, we may become more exposed to the results of political instability in the regions where fossil fuels are produced.

• Economic If present trends continue, increasing demand will cause rising imports of energy - in the EU.

Economic growth depends on energy, leisure and social activities very often require energy,

• Economic

Motoring organisations predict the worst Easter traffic jams on recordRead more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-605952/Holiday-traffic-set-worst-ever.html#ixzz0hUf5xC4T

More than two million passengers are set to use BAA's airports over the Easter breakRead more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-605952/Holiday-traffic-set-worst-ever.html#ixzz0hUfJFtnm

Economic growth depends on energy, leisure and social activities very often require energy,

• Economic

the number of appliances and gadgets owned in the world increases daily, all needing energy.

• Economic

Top 10 green gadgetsAdam Vaughan profiles some eco-friendly options for gadget fans

Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/aug/23/energyefficiency

• Economic

So Stuff, Cars and Planes makes up 70% of energy use I am personally able to do something about. I need to be thinking more about "Stuff".

Source: http://www.kennett.co.nz/paul/myonlinediary/2009/08/energy-use-i-am-directly-responsible.html

Underlying all these are needs for transport, cooking, heating, air conditioning and lighting.

• Economic

1. Set your thermostat lower: 2. Don’t heat the whole house:

3. Wash clothes with the Cold/Cold setting and use full loads

4. Adjust water heaters down to 126 degrees:

5. Unplug computers, TV’s, Cable boxes, and other “energy vampire” appliances when not in use:6. Turn off the lights when you leave the room

7. Take shorter showers:

8. Trim those bushes on the south side of your home & open the shades:

• Economic

• The most reliable predictions indicate that by 2050, the world's population will have nearly doubled from its present level. It will rise from around 6 billion to about 10 billion people. Most of this growth, and much of the increase in energy consumption, will occur in LEDCs.

• All economies are increasing their demands for energy. This is especially true of newly emerging economies, especially the very large countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) where energy for manufacturing is the main growth.

• EconomicIn order to be successful, all economies (including those already developed) need to grow each year. In one way or another, that growth needs energy.

Countries that experience a low level of development need to grow so that large proportions of their populations can rise out of poverty.

• Economic

“In 22 years, the US GDP has gone from about 20,000 to 35,000 per capita while energy use per capita has remained almost the same. Apparently it is possible for a country to increase the GDP without increasing energy use. It’s also interesting that the US and the UK are the only two countries who are using energy so efficiently.” Look for bias in your sources … Source: http://notable.wordpress.com/2007/04/07/us-energy-usage-trends/

Countries that experience a low level of development need to grow so that large proportions of their populations can rise out of poverty.

• Social • World: 2 billion without access to electricity

• Rural India: 400 million (57% of population)

• Target 100% electrification by 2012 www.worldenergy.org/documents/alleviationajay_mathur.ppt

Overall electrification in the country

No. Households

Percentage

Total no. of Households

138.27 million  

Households electrified

60.18 million 43.5%

Households yet to be electrified

78.09 million 56.5%

• Social Cooking:• 75% of rural households depend on

firewood for cooking, 10% on dungcake and about 5% on LPG.

• 22% of urban households depend on firewood for cooking, another 22% on kerosene and about 44% on LPG.

Lighting• 50% of rural households depend on

kerosene and another 48% on electricity

• 89% of urban households depend on electricity and another 10% on kerosene.

Source: www.worldenergy.org/documents/alleviationajay_mathur.ppt

• Social

• In developed economies, as well as getting to and from work, people want to travel to see friends, enjoy pastimes and go on holidays.

Source: http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/c/carbon_offset.asp

Entertainment, even staying at home and watching TV, requires energy.

• Social

Consumers are becoming increasingly aware of energy efficiency, both for environmental and household budget reasons. Manufacturers are responding by finding ways to squeeze more energy efficiency out of their models.Source: http://www.veridian.on.ca/connections_residential_powerwise_tv-energy-use_how-to-choose.asp

• Social To make life easier and free up time for leisure, labour saving devices are needed.

For many of the social reasons above technology has produced equipment that requires energy. The list is enormous.

• Technological

http://littlehelperdevices.blogspot.com/

Car ownership grows continuously throughout the world.

• Technological

Source: http://e2af.com/trend/090113_p1.shtml

Source: http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12714391&source=features_box4

New car registrations are expected to increase by 4.7% globally in 2010, after contracting by 14% in 2009. Unsaturated markets will drive demand, led by the appetite for car ownership in the three biggest emerging economies—China, India and Brazil.

• Technological Source: http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15098965

Growing international trade has led to the transport of goods by air, sea and all forms of land transport.

• Technological

Source: http://www.observatorynano.eu/project/document/3011/

Global carbon dioxide production

• Technological

Growing international trade has led to the transport of goods by air, sea and all forms of land transport.

Source: http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch3en/conc3en/evolairtransport.html

In spite of setbacks eg 9/11, the growth appears to be exponential and will only level off when developing economies such as China and India will become more mature

• TechnologicalGrowing international trade has led to the transport of goods by air, sea and all forms of land transport.

The growth of maritime transport is strongly correlated with the growth of international trade. An increase of 3,8% in world output led to a strong increase in world seaborne trade in 2004. In 2004, global maritime transport reached 6,76 billion tons, meaning a growth rate of 4,3%.

Source: http://dev.ulb.ac.be/ceese/ABC_Impacts/glossary/sheet_maritime_trends.php