22.ApresentaçãO JapãO
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Transcript of 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO
1
PETROBRAS PETROBRAS A NEW ROLE IN THE GAMEA NEW ROLE IN THE GAMEMr. JosMr. Joséé Sergio Sergio GabrielliGabrielli –– CEOCEOOctoberOctober 26th, 200926th, 2009
October, 2009
2
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.
The United States Securities and Exchange
Commission permits oil and gas companies,
in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only
proved reserves that a company has
demonstrated by actual production or
conclusive formation tests to be
economically and legally producible under
existing economic and operating conditions.
We use certain terms in this
presentation, such as oil and gas
resources, that the SEC’s guidelines
strictly prohibit us from including in
filings with the SEC.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
FOR US INVESTORS
DISCLAIMER
3
337.0
199.6176.0 164.5
147.7 141.6102.5
76.2 75.9
XOM PBR RDS BP CVX TOT ENI COP STL
5%
4% 4%
2% 1%
-1%
-4%
-6%
6%
-2%
Oil and Gas production 1H09 vs. 1H08
PBR COP CVX BP STL
ENI XOM RDS TOT
BG
Source: Company reports and web site
Source: Bloomberg
(US
$ b
n)
Market Value as of October 12, 2009
20%18%
11%
3%
-1%
-37%
-17%
-1%
-6%
-12%
PBR BG CVX TOT
STL XOM RDS ENI COP BP
CAPEX 1H09 vs. 1H08
Source: Company reports and web site
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING AMONG PEERS
4
HIGH EQUITY TURNOVER AND DIVERSIFIED SHAREHOLDER BASE
Turnover NYSE & Bovespa (Daily Average Turnover)
25% 27% 31%26% 22%
6% 5%6%
5%5%
25% 21%20%
20%19%
43% 47% 43%50% 53%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD
NysePBR
PBR/A
Bovespa
PETR3PETR4
PETR4 (Bovespa)
PBR/A (Nyse)
PETR3 (Bovespa)
PBR (Nyse)
(% category and US$MM)
1,3441,930992483219
Turnover 2009YTD/2005 = 512%
53,6%61,6%
44,4% 40,6% 39,9%
46,4%
18,0%
25,1%23,1% 20,7% 22,7%
10,3%
9,9%8,0%
29,5%
40,1%
7,9%
10,9% 31,2%26,4%
20,3%
9,5%
Oct/1992 Jul/2000 After Aug/00
offering
After Jul/01
offering
Dec/2003 Dec/08
Bovespa
30,6%
Foreign
37,4%
Shareholder Base
Government (1)
(1) Includes BNDES / BNDESPAR
Bovespa Brazil
Bovespa Foreign
ADRs
5
2nd investment cycle (2011 on )+ 307 km pipelines+ new compressor stations+ 2 LNG terminals (Regas-Flex Terminal)+ Natural Gas plants
BUSINESS PLAN 2009-2013
1,792 1,855 2,0502,680
3,920273 321463
634
1,177
142
210
409
124126
223
131
103100109
2007 2008 2009 2013 2020O il P roduction - B razil G as R poduction - B razilO il P roduction - International G as P roduction - International
8.8% a.a.2,4002,308
6% a.a.
5,7297.5% a.a.
3,655
2,757
CAPEX - US$174.4 Billions
25%
2%2%
7%
3%2%
59%104.6 (*)43,4
11.8
5.6 3.02.8
3.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020
3,0122,270
1,7911,779
Premium I600 Th. bpd
andPremium II
300 Th. bpd
GAS & ENERGY
OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION
2010: 43 TH. BPD
2011: 255 TH. BPD
2012: 150 TH. BPD
1st investment cycle (up to 2010) + 2, 332 km pipelines+ 19 new power plants+ 1,236 MW + LNG Terminal - Baía de Guanabara
REFINING CAPACITY
E&P
RTC
G&E
Petrochemicals
Biofuels
Distribution
Corporate
(*) US$ 17.0 billion allocated to Exploration
(Thousand boe/d)(Thousand bpd))
6
Exploration & Production
Refining
Distribution
Commercialization
Petrochemicals
Energy
Gas sector activities
Representative office
Cooperation agreement
Head office
CURRENT INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE
Operations in 27 countries
Expanding activities in America, Europe, Africa and Asia.
JAPAN - Nansei Sekiyu refinery in Okinawa: Capacity to proc ess 100 thousand bpd, storage for 9.6 million barrels o f oil products and provide logistical support for the distribution of Petrobrasproducts to the Asian market
7
PRE SALT REGION: A PROMISING FUTURE
� The big blue area represents the expected Pre-salt location, with great potential for oil presence
� Currently, Campos basin is responsible for 87% of the Companies' total production, however, when comparing with Santos basin region one may see how promising the region is.
8
20,000
25,000
30,000
Santos and Campos BasinsPre-Salt
(Tupi, Iara, Guará and Whale’sPark)**
mi boe ~ 25-30 bn boe
Proven Reserves* + Santos and Campos Basins
Pre-Salt (Tupi, Iara, Guará and Whale’s Park)**
5,000
10,000
15,000
2008 ProvenReserves*
14,093
0
ENHANCING RESERVES
*SPE Criteria
** include Petrobras and Partners
Higher estimates+5,400
Lower estimates10,600
Santos Pre-Salt announced recoverable volumes, can almost double Brazilian reserves.
9
Petrobras Total Production (x 1000 boe/d)
1.335
232
4424
1.500
252
3522
1.540
25116185
1.493
26516894
1.684
27416396
1.778
277142101
1.792
273126110
1.855
321124100
2.050*
463142103
2.680
634
210
131
3.920
1.177
409
223
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ..... 2013 2020.....
* Consider +- 2,5%
8.8% p.y.
2,4002,3012,2972,2172,0202,0371,810
1,635
5.6% p.y.
7.5% p.y.
2,758
3,655
5,729
Oil production - Brazil Gas production - Brazil Oil production - International Gas production - International
PURSUING NEW PROJECTS WHILE MAXIMIZING PRODUCTION FROM EXISTING ASSETS
10
Pro
duct
ion
(bpd
)
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55
1.800.00
1.600.00
1.200.00
1.000.00
800.00
400.00
0
Numbers of Years
Production since foundingof Petrobras (1954)
Discovery of Garoupa in the Campos basin (1954)
Discovery of giant fields in Campos basin including Albacora/Marlim
Discovery of the Pre-Salt, since Parati (2006)
2.000.000
IMPRESSIVE RECORD OF ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT
11
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
Scenario for the Pre-SaltSeveral blocks acquired at the
same period
Operational Partnerships
Similar geological characteristics
Challenging Water depth, shore
distance, salt layer,
Operational Partnerships…
Major Technological
Challenges
After massive exploratory efforts led to huge discoveries …
High Investment Need
Impact on several areas of Petrobras
PLANSALSantos Basin Pre-Salt Development Master Plan
12
COMMERCIAL CHALLENGES
• Take advantage of possible synergies and scale to pursue cost reduction
• Local content – current successful examples:
• Supply vessel construction
• Subsea equipment
• Tubulars
• Motors, Valves etc
• Repeatability and scale
• Hull “Factory”
• Batch contracts for process modules
• Standardization program for well and subsea hardware (trees, lines, …)
• FPSO “Flex”
13
USING CONTRACTS AND LEASES TO SECURE NEEDED DRILLING ASSETS AND FPSOS
13
Water Depth 2008 2009 2010 2011
0-999m
2012 2013 - 2018
1000-1999m
≥ 2000m
Total per year
11
18
5
34
2
5
7 9*
9 6
1
7 9 28**
+ 28 to be leased
Rigs Available in the market > 2400m
7 17 6
* 2 rigs will be dismissed in 2013**30 rigs contracted plus 28 to be leased up to 201 8, making a total of 58 new drilling rigs
30 RIGS CONTRACTED PLUS 28 TO BE LEASED UP TO 2018, MAKING A TOTAL OF 58 DRILLING RIGS:�23 being delivered between 2009 and 2011�9 will be chartered via international bidding, being delivered in 2012 – Meeting Petrobras’ short-term needs, while the national industry prepares itself for additional orders.�28 will be built in Brazil, being delivered between 2013 and 2018FIRST 2 FPSOS TO BE CHARTERED (2013-2014): Oil Production: 120,000 bpd, Gas Compression: 5 M m³/dADDITIONAL 8 FPSOS (2015-2016): Construction of the hulls at the Rio Grande Shipyard, all identical units, manufactured in series
14
Itens Un. TOTAL
Reactors un 280
Oil and water splitter un 50
Storage Tankers un 1.800
Turrets un 550
Itens Un. TOTAL
Power Generators un 500
Filters un 300
Flares un 30
Items Un. TOTAL
Wet Christmas Tree un 500
Well Head un 500
Flexible Lines km 4.000
Manifolds un 30
Producing pipes t 42.000
Umbilical km 2.200
Dry Christmas Tree un 1.700
Onshore well head un 1.700
Items Un. TOTAL
Pumps un 8.000
Compressors un 700
Winch un 450
Crane un 200
Engines un 1.000
Turbines un 350
Structure Steal (Hull) t 240.000
Structure Steal (Platforms Hull) t 700.000
NEW EQUIPMENT TO BE CONTRACTED
15
EnvironmentBio FuelsNatural Gas
Frontier Areas
Basin Modeling
Heavy Oil
Optimization &
Reliability
Deep and Ultra-deepWaters
Fuel Innovation
Refining
Climate Changes
Transportation
Enhanced Oil
Recovery
Pre-salt
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION FOR THE NEXT DECADES
Technological programs
PETROBRAS RESEARCH CENTER
Partnership with over 120 universities and research centers in Brazil, and 70 Institutions abroad.
Investments in Technology2009-2013
1.90.2
1.0
0.9
US$ 4.0 billion
47%
23%
5%
25%
E&P Downstream
G&E Corp. (Cenpes)
PRO-CO²
16
MANAGING RESERVOIR UNCERTAINTIES
Reservoir Quality Predictability - best EOR method
Flexible FPSOs’ Topsides
Subsea Layout
CO2 Processing & Handling
Production System Integrity
Flow Assurance
17
Yea
r 0
Yea
r 2
Yea
r 4
Yea
r 6
Yea
r 8
Yea
r 10
Yea
r 12
Yea
r 14
Yea
r 16
Yea
r 18
Yea
r 20
Yea
r 22
Yea
r 24
Yea
r 26
Yea
r 28
Yea
r 30
Yea
r 32
Yea
r 34
Anticipation of revenues
Possible optimizedrecovery
Santos Pre-Salt Cluster Vs. Campos BasinACCELERATED PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
PRE SALT RESERVE DEVELOPMENT USING FAST TRACK PROJECTS -EXPECTED RESULTS:
• Revenue Anticipation;
• Possible optimized recovery using alternate water and CO2 injection;
• Capex Optimization
• Time to first oil reduction
Fast Track Project Standard Project
18
PETROBRAS: GLOBAL PRESENCE IN THE BIOFUEL SEGMENT
84%
16%
Ethanol
Biodiesel
BIOFUELS CAPEX 2009-2013US$ 2.8 BILLION
40.6% p.y.
(thousand m³)
1,081
4,225
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
2009 2013
Ethanol ExportsBrazilian Biodiesel Market andPetrobras Production Target*
17.9% p.y.
PetrobrasMarket-share
(thousand m³)
971
2114
535(20%)
401 (29%)
-300
200
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
2009 2013
* Base case: Demand B5 in 2013
19 19
North and
Central America
37%
South
America
38%
Asia
16.2%
Europe
9.8%Brazil
35%
Ethanol global market is 46.5 Billions Liters
Ethanol as a Fuel is 30.6 Billions Liters, or 67% of total ethanol
production
TODAY the ethanol consumption is 2,6% of gasoline MK
increasing ethanol to 10% of gasoline will represent 118 Billions Lt
ETHANOL: ANOTHER GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BECAME A GLOBAL PLAYER
TOMORROW Potential ethanol production would grow by more
than 100% based on Lignocelluloses Biomass technology
CURRENT MARKET DISTRIBUTION OF WORLD CONSUMPTION
SUGARCANE ETHANOL PROVIDES THE LOWER AND
BEST PAYBACK TIME RATIO FOR CARBON EMISSION
8.3Sugar Cane (underBrazilian ProductionCondictions)
1.9Sugar Beet
1.3 – 1.8Corn
1.2Wheat
ENERGY OUTPUT/ENERGY
INPUTRAW MATERIAL
BRAZIL: LEADER IN ETHANOL EFFICIENT PRODUCTION
BR Amazon
to Soy
Biodiesel
BR Cerrado to
Soy BiodieselIndonesian
Lowland Tropical
Rainforest to Palm
Oil Biodiesel
Indonesian
Peatland Tropical
Rainforest to Palm
Oil Biodiesel
US Central
Grassland to
Corn Etanol
320
37
86 93
BR Cerrado to
Sugarcane
Ethanol
17
Payb
ack
Tim
e (Y
rs)
420
20
FUEL ETHANOL USE AROUND THE WORLD
Source: IFQC, 2007No ethanol blending
Ethanol blending – Existing programmes Programmes under implementation
21
EU (cereals) USA (Corn) Australia (SugarCane)
Thailand (SugarCane)
Brazil (Sugar Cane)
US$ / B arre l 154
US$ / B arre l 75 US$ / B arre l
51
US$ / B arre l 46
US$ / B arre l 32
20,3 24 27,6 31,3 34,9 38,7 42,5 46,1 49,6 53,23,9
4,96,1
6,6 7,17,7 8,3
1,8 2,42,5
2,52,5
2,52,6
2,5
4,14,24,21,1 1,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fuel in domestic Market Export Other Uses
2529 33
3843 47
52 5660 64
COMPETITIVE BRAZILIAN ETHANOL
Sorce: DATAGRO (in “New trends to the ethanol supply chain in brazil”, Simoes, R.B., Master Thesis, University Van Tilburg, holanda, jul-2006)
Sorce:MME (10 Years Energiy Plan – PDE 2006 – 2017 ver.2)
ProductionProduction CostsCosts
Brazilian ethanol: growing expectationBrazilian ethanol: growing expectation
billi
onlit
ers
22
PETROBRAS: FIRST SERVICE STATION WITH ETHANOL IN JAPAN
� Initiated operation on 1 st of september
2009;
� Located in Kawasaki;
� E3 Fuel Commercialization.
� Initial instalation in two pumps;
� Expectation of 100 m 3/month;
� Target 2010 (march): 10 service stations
and 1,000 m3/month.
23
For more information:Investor Relationswww.petrobras.com.br/ri+55 21 [email protected]