22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

23
1 PETROBRAS PETROBRAS A NEW ROLE IN THE GAME A NEW ROLE IN THE GAME Mr. Jos Mr. Jos é é Sergio Sergio Gabrielli Gabrielli CEO CEO October October 26th, 2009 26th, 2009 October, 2009

description

 

Transcript of 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

Page 1: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

1

PETROBRAS PETROBRAS A NEW ROLE IN THE GAMEA NEW ROLE IN THE GAMEMr. JosMr. Joséé Sergio Sergio GabrielliGabrielli –– CEOCEOOctoberOctober 26th, 200926th, 2009

October, 2009

Page 2: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

2

The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.

The United States Securities and Exchange

Commission permits oil and gas companies,

in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only

proved reserves that a company has

demonstrated by actual production or

conclusive formation tests to be

economically and legally producible under

existing economic and operating conditions.

We use certain terms in this

presentation, such as oil and gas

resources, that the SEC’s guidelines

strictly prohibit us from including in

filings with the SEC.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

FOR US INVESTORS

DISCLAIMER

Page 3: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

3

337.0

199.6176.0 164.5

147.7 141.6102.5

76.2 75.9

XOM PBR RDS BP CVX TOT ENI COP STL

5%

4% 4%

2% 1%

-1%

-4%

-6%

6%

-2%

Oil and Gas production 1H09 vs. 1H08

PBR COP CVX BP STL

ENI XOM RDS TOT

BG

Source: Company reports and web site

Source: Bloomberg

(US

$ b

n)

Market Value as of October 12, 2009

20%18%

11%

3%

-1%

-37%

-17%

-1%

-6%

-12%

PBR BG CVX TOT

STL XOM RDS ENI COP BP

CAPEX 1H09 vs. 1H08

Source: Company reports and web site

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING AMONG PEERS

Page 4: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

4

HIGH EQUITY TURNOVER AND DIVERSIFIED SHAREHOLDER BASE

Turnover NYSE & Bovespa (Daily Average Turnover)

25% 27% 31%26% 22%

6% 5%6%

5%5%

25% 21%20%

20%19%

43% 47% 43%50% 53%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD

NysePBR

PBR/A

Bovespa

PETR3PETR4

PETR4 (Bovespa)

PBR/A (Nyse)

PETR3 (Bovespa)

PBR (Nyse)

(% category and US$MM)

1,3441,930992483219

Turnover 2009YTD/2005 = 512%

53,6%61,6%

44,4% 40,6% 39,9%

46,4%

18,0%

25,1%23,1% 20,7% 22,7%

10,3%

9,9%8,0%

29,5%

40,1%

7,9%

10,9% 31,2%26,4%

20,3%

9,5%

Oct/1992 Jul/2000 After Aug/00

offering

After Jul/01

offering

Dec/2003 Dec/08

Bovespa

30,6%

Foreign

37,4%

Shareholder Base

Government (1)

(1) Includes BNDES / BNDESPAR

Bovespa Brazil

Bovespa Foreign

ADRs

Page 5: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

5

2nd investment cycle (2011 on )+ 307 km pipelines+ new compressor stations+ 2 LNG terminals (Regas-Flex Terminal)+ Natural Gas plants

BUSINESS PLAN 2009-2013

1,792 1,855 2,0502,680

3,920273 321463

634

1,177

142

210

409

124126

223

131

103100109

2007 2008 2009 2013 2020O il P roduction - B razil G as R poduction - B razilO il P roduction - International G as P roduction - International

8.8% a.a.2,4002,308

6% a.a.

5,7297.5% a.a.

3,655

2,757

CAPEX - US$174.4 Billions

25%

2%2%

7%

3%2%

59%104.6 (*)43,4

11.8

5.6 3.02.8

3.2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020

3,0122,270

1,7911,779

Premium I600 Th. bpd

andPremium II

300 Th. bpd

GAS & ENERGY

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION

2010: 43 TH. BPD

2011: 255 TH. BPD

2012: 150 TH. BPD

1st investment cycle (up to 2010) + 2, 332 km pipelines+ 19 new power plants+ 1,236 MW + LNG Terminal - Baía de Guanabara

REFINING CAPACITY

E&P

RTC

G&E

Petrochemicals

Biofuels

Distribution

Corporate

(*) US$ 17.0 billion allocated to Exploration

(Thousand boe/d)(Thousand bpd))

Page 6: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

6

Exploration & Production

Refining

Distribution

Commercialization

Petrochemicals

Energy

Gas sector activities

Representative office

Cooperation agreement

Head office

CURRENT INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE

Operations in 27 countries

Expanding activities in America, Europe, Africa and Asia.

JAPAN - Nansei Sekiyu refinery in Okinawa: Capacity to proc ess 100 thousand bpd, storage for 9.6 million barrels o f oil products and provide logistical support for the distribution of Petrobrasproducts to the Asian market

Page 7: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

7

PRE SALT REGION: A PROMISING FUTURE

� The big blue area represents the expected Pre-salt location, with great potential for oil presence

� Currently, Campos basin is responsible for 87% of the Companies' total production, however, when comparing with Santos basin region one may see how promising the region is.

Page 8: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

8

20,000

25,000

30,000

Santos and Campos BasinsPre-Salt

(Tupi, Iara, Guará and Whale’sPark)**

mi boe ~ 25-30 bn boe

Proven Reserves* + Santos and Campos Basins

Pre-Salt (Tupi, Iara, Guará and Whale’s Park)**

5,000

10,000

15,000

2008 ProvenReserves*

14,093

0

ENHANCING RESERVES

*SPE Criteria

** include Petrobras and Partners

Higher estimates+5,400

Lower estimates10,600

Santos Pre-Salt announced recoverable volumes, can almost double Brazilian reserves.

Page 9: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

9

Petrobras Total Production (x 1000 boe/d)

1.335

232

4424

1.500

252

3522

1.540

25116185

1.493

26516894

1.684

27416396

1.778

277142101

1.792

273126110

1.855

321124100

2.050*

463142103

2.680

634

210

131

3.920

1.177

409

223

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ..... 2013 2020.....

* Consider +- 2,5%

8.8% p.y.

2,4002,3012,2972,2172,0202,0371,810

1,635

5.6% p.y.

7.5% p.y.

2,758

3,655

5,729

Oil production - Brazil Gas production - Brazil Oil production - International Gas production - International

PURSUING NEW PROJECTS WHILE MAXIMIZING PRODUCTION FROM EXISTING ASSETS

Page 10: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

10

Pro

duct

ion

(bpd

)

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55

1.800.00

1.600.00

1.200.00

1.000.00

800.00

400.00

0

Numbers of Years

Production since foundingof Petrobras (1954)

Discovery of Garoupa in the Campos basin (1954)

Discovery of giant fields in Campos basin including Albacora/Marlim

Discovery of the Pre-Salt, since Parati (2006)

2.000.000

IMPRESSIVE RECORD OF ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT

Page 11: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

11

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

Scenario for the Pre-SaltSeveral blocks acquired at the

same period

Operational Partnerships

Similar geological characteristics

Challenging Water depth, shore

distance, salt layer,

Operational Partnerships…

Major Technological

Challenges

After massive exploratory efforts led to huge discoveries …

High Investment Need

Impact on several areas of Petrobras

PLANSALSantos Basin Pre-Salt Development Master Plan

Page 12: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

12

COMMERCIAL CHALLENGES

• Take advantage of possible synergies and scale to pursue cost reduction

• Local content – current successful examples:

• Supply vessel construction

• Subsea equipment

• Tubulars

• Motors, Valves etc

• Repeatability and scale

• Hull “Factory”

• Batch contracts for process modules

• Standardization program for well and subsea hardware (trees, lines, …)

• FPSO “Flex”

Page 13: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

13

USING CONTRACTS AND LEASES TO SECURE NEEDED DRILLING ASSETS AND FPSOS

13

Water Depth 2008 2009 2010 2011

0-999m

2012 2013 - 2018

1000-1999m

≥ 2000m

Total per year

11

18

5

34

2

5

7 9*

9 6

1

7 9 28**

+ 28 to be leased

Rigs Available in the market > 2400m

7 17 6

* 2 rigs will be dismissed in 2013**30 rigs contracted plus 28 to be leased up to 201 8, making a total of 58 new drilling rigs

30 RIGS CONTRACTED PLUS 28 TO BE LEASED UP TO 2018, MAKING A TOTAL OF 58 DRILLING RIGS:�23 being delivered between 2009 and 2011�9 will be chartered via international bidding, being delivered in 2012 – Meeting Petrobras’ short-term needs, while the national industry prepares itself for additional orders.�28 will be built in Brazil, being delivered between 2013 and 2018FIRST 2 FPSOS TO BE CHARTERED (2013-2014): Oil Production: 120,000 bpd, Gas Compression: 5 M m³/dADDITIONAL 8 FPSOS (2015-2016): Construction of the hulls at the Rio Grande Shipyard, all identical units, manufactured in series

Page 14: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

14

Itens Un. TOTAL

Reactors un 280

Oil and water splitter un 50

Storage Tankers un 1.800

Turrets un 550

Itens Un. TOTAL

Power Generators un 500

Filters un 300

Flares un 30

Items Un. TOTAL

Wet Christmas Tree un 500

Well Head un 500

Flexible Lines km 4.000

Manifolds un 30

Producing pipes t 42.000

Umbilical km 2.200

Dry Christmas Tree un 1.700

Onshore well head un 1.700

Items Un. TOTAL

Pumps un 8.000

Compressors un 700

Winch un 450

Crane un 200

Engines un 1.000

Turbines un 350

Structure Steal (Hull) t 240.000

Structure Steal (Platforms Hull) t 700.000

NEW EQUIPMENT TO BE CONTRACTED

Page 15: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

15

EnvironmentBio FuelsNatural Gas

Frontier Areas

Basin Modeling

Heavy Oil

Optimization &

Reliability

Deep and Ultra-deepWaters

Fuel Innovation

Refining

Climate Changes

Transportation

Enhanced Oil

Recovery

Pre-salt

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION FOR THE NEXT DECADES

Technological programs

PETROBRAS RESEARCH CENTER

Partnership with over 120 universities and research centers in Brazil, and 70 Institutions abroad.

Investments in Technology2009-2013

1.90.2

1.0

0.9

US$ 4.0 billion

47%

23%

5%

25%

E&P Downstream

G&E Corp. (Cenpes)

PRO-CO²

Page 16: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

16

MANAGING RESERVOIR UNCERTAINTIES

Reservoir Quality Predictability - best EOR method

Flexible FPSOs’ Topsides

Subsea Layout

CO2 Processing & Handling

Production System Integrity

Flow Assurance

Page 17: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

17

Yea

r 0

Yea

r 2

Yea

r 4

Yea

r 6

Yea

r 8

Yea

r 10

Yea

r 12

Yea

r 14

Yea

r 16

Yea

r 18

Yea

r 20

Yea

r 22

Yea

r 24

Yea

r 26

Yea

r 28

Yea

r 30

Yea

r 32

Yea

r 34

Anticipation of revenues

Possible optimizedrecovery

Santos Pre-Salt Cluster Vs. Campos BasinACCELERATED PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

PRE SALT RESERVE DEVELOPMENT USING FAST TRACK PROJECTS -EXPECTED RESULTS:

• Revenue Anticipation;

• Possible optimized recovery using alternate water and CO2 injection;

• Capex Optimization

• Time to first oil reduction

Fast Track Project Standard Project

Page 18: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

18

PETROBRAS: GLOBAL PRESENCE IN THE BIOFUEL SEGMENT

84%

16%

Ethanol

Biodiesel

BIOFUELS CAPEX 2009-2013US$ 2.8 BILLION

40.6% p.y.

(thousand m³)

1,081

4,225

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

2009 2013

Ethanol ExportsBrazilian Biodiesel Market andPetrobras Production Target*

17.9% p.y.

PetrobrasMarket-share

(thousand m³)

971

2114

535(20%)

401 (29%)

-300

200

700

1200

1700

2200

2700

2009 2013

* Base case: Demand B5 in 2013

Page 19: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

19 19

North and

Central America

37%

South

America

38%

Asia

16.2%

Europe

9.8%Brazil

35%

Ethanol global market is 46.5 Billions Liters

Ethanol as a Fuel is 30.6 Billions Liters, or 67% of total ethanol

production

TODAY the ethanol consumption is 2,6% of gasoline MK

increasing ethanol to 10% of gasoline will represent 118 Billions Lt

ETHANOL: ANOTHER GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BECAME A GLOBAL PLAYER

TOMORROW Potential ethanol production would grow by more

than 100% based on Lignocelluloses Biomass technology

CURRENT MARKET DISTRIBUTION OF WORLD CONSUMPTION

SUGARCANE ETHANOL PROVIDES THE LOWER AND

BEST PAYBACK TIME RATIO FOR CARBON EMISSION

8.3Sugar Cane (underBrazilian ProductionCondictions)

1.9Sugar Beet

1.3 – 1.8Corn

1.2Wheat

ENERGY OUTPUT/ENERGY

INPUTRAW MATERIAL

BRAZIL: LEADER IN ETHANOL EFFICIENT PRODUCTION

BR Amazon

to Soy

Biodiesel

BR Cerrado to

Soy BiodieselIndonesian

Lowland Tropical

Rainforest to Palm

Oil Biodiesel

Indonesian

Peatland Tropical

Rainforest to Palm

Oil Biodiesel

US Central

Grassland to

Corn Etanol

320

37

86 93

BR Cerrado to

Sugarcane

Ethanol

17

Payb

ack

Tim

e (Y

rs)

420

Page 20: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

20

FUEL ETHANOL USE AROUND THE WORLD

Source: IFQC, 2007No ethanol blending

Ethanol blending – Existing programmes Programmes under implementation

Page 21: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

21

EU (cereals) USA (Corn) Australia (SugarCane)

Thailand (SugarCane)

Brazil (Sugar Cane)

US$ / B arre l 154

US$ / B arre l 75 US$ / B arre l

51

US$ / B arre l 46

US$ / B arre l 32

20,3 24 27,6 31,3 34,9 38,7 42,5 46,1 49,6 53,23,9

4,96,1

6,6 7,17,7 8,3

1,8 2,42,5

2,52,5

2,52,6

2,5

4,14,24,21,1 1,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fuel in domestic Market Export Other Uses

2529 33

3843 47

52 5660 64

COMPETITIVE BRAZILIAN ETHANOL

Sorce: DATAGRO (in “New trends to the ethanol supply chain in brazil”, Simoes, R.B., Master Thesis, University Van Tilburg, holanda, jul-2006)

Sorce:MME (10 Years Energiy Plan – PDE 2006 – 2017 ver.2)

ProductionProduction CostsCosts

Brazilian ethanol: growing expectationBrazilian ethanol: growing expectation

billi

onlit

ers

Page 22: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

22

PETROBRAS: FIRST SERVICE STATION WITH ETHANOL IN JAPAN

� Initiated operation on 1 st of september

2009;

� Located in Kawasaki;

� E3 Fuel Commercialization.

� Initial instalation in two pumps;

� Expectation of 100 m 3/month;

� Target 2010 (march): 10 service stations

and 1,000 m3/month.

Page 23: 22.ApresentaçãO JapãO

23

For more information:Investor Relationswww.petrobras.com.br/ri+55 21 [email protected]