22 Mar 2016 - asiawealth.co.th · SCCC’s net profit this year would grow 7% YoY to Bt4.9bn and 8%...
Transcript of 22 Mar 2016 - asiawealth.co.th · SCCC’s net profit this year would grow 7% YoY to Bt4.9bn and 8%...
Daily Market Outlook 22 Mar 2016
1
Please see disclaimer on last page
Renewed oil hope Expect the SET to trade higher today led by energy counters
as oil rose after OPEC and non-OPEC groups set to meet on 17 Apr to discuss output freeze. However, market gains may
be limited by hawkish comments from two Fed officials just a
few days after Janet Yellen’s market friendly move last week.
Most local factors today are positive. They are new tax
incentives for Songkran to be contemplated by the Cabinet
today and ten fast-tracked infrastructure projects to get off the
ground under the current government.
Pick of the day: SCCC (Bt313.00; NR; Bloomberg TP
Bt332.29) Siam City Cement PCL is our pick of the day as one of the
major beneficiaries of the government's long-overdue mega
infrastructure projects and for its appealing dividends.
Domestic cement consumption has shown signs of recovery
since last December with a significant increase in cement
sales going into January this year. We believe this trend will
continue and accelerate even further from 2H16 onward.
SCCC’s export markets, particularly in CLMV countries, are
also on bright paths as their public and private infrastructure
still lag behind other ASEAN countries and there is an
upcoming construction cycle in these rapidly growing
economies. According to Bloomberg’s earnings consensus,
SCCC’s net profit this year would grow 7% YoY to Bt4.9bn and
8% YoY to Bt5.3bn in 2017. The company's valuation is still
behind its historical norm, trading at a prospective 2016PER of
14.8x, below the 5-year historical average of 20.0x. The share
also offers an attractive dividend yield of 5.0% p.a. Despite
some pressure from weekly and monthly sell signals, SCCC’s
price pattern indicates short-term strength with a daily buy
signal. Medium-term strength from a weekly buy signal will likely
occur if the share can close above Bt319 by the end of the week.
The share should continue to adjust up to test our first target at
Bt325 before moving to test a primary target at Bt358. There is
a stop loss at Bt305. (Resistance: 314.00, 315.00, 317.00;
Support: 312.00, 311.00, 309.00)
Local issue Proposal of tax incentive scheme for Songkran.
Stimulus measures to spur domestic spending during
Songkran will include a tax deduction of up to Bt15,000 for
dining and travel expenses during 9-17 Apr and a Bt1,000
cash handout to low- and middle-ranking state officials and
low-income earners, said Finance Minister Apisak
Tantivorawong. The incentive packages will be proposed
for the cabinet’s approval today. (Bangkok Post)
Ten infrastructure projects must begin under current
government. Transport Minister Arkhom
Termpittayapaisith yesterday said 10 delayed mass-transit
projects must commence while the current military-led
government is in power. The confidence comes from a
faster consideration process, in which the state agency
does not need to wait for the completion of the projects’
EIA review. (The Nation)
Major Indices Close Chg %Chg
SET 1,393.63 +10.7 +0.8
SET50 898.86 +10.0 +1.1
SET P/E (x) 20.4
SET P/BV (x) 1.8
SET Div. Yield (%) 3.3
Dow Jones 17,623.87 +21.6 +0.1
S&P 500 2,051.60 +2.0 +0.1
NASDAQ 4,808.87 +13.2 +0.3
UK 6,184.58 -5.1 -0.1
Germany 9,948.64 -2.2 -0.0
France 4,427.80 -34.7 -0.8
Japan 16,724.81 -211.6 -1.2
South Korea 1,989.76 -2.4 -0.1
Hong Kong 20,684.15 +12.5 +0.1
China 3,020.12 +65.0 +2.2
Taiwan 8,812.70 +2.0 +0.0
Singapore 2,880.69 -26.1 -0.9
Malaysia 1,718.36 +2.0 +0.1
Indonesia 4,885.16 -0.5 -0.0
Philippines 7,376.41 +69.7 +1.0
Trading Summary Buy Sell Net
Institution 9,870 9,257 613
Proprietary 4,749 4,134 615
Foreign 17,825 17,924 -99
Individuals 20,537 21,666 -1,129
Total Trading Value 52,981 Btmn
Most Active Value Value Close %Chg
ADVANC 3,285 177.00 5.0 JAS 3,229 3.68 7.0 DTAC 2,530 42.25 9.7 PTTEP 2,000 68.75 -4.2 TASCO 1,251 25.00 1.6
Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg
US Crude 39.91 +0.5 +1.2
Brent Crude 41.54 +0.3 +0.8
Gold 1,244.20 -10.1 -0.8
FX Rates Close Chg %Chg
USD/THB 34.91 +0.0 +0.0
EUR/USD 1.12 -0.0 -0.2
USD/JPY 111.93 +0.4 +0.3
USD/CNY 6.48 +0.0 +0.2
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
Technical picks (support & resistance)
EGCO (S: 170.00, R: 182.50); BDMS (S: 22.10, R: 23.30); ANAN (S: 3.18, R: 3.58); SET (S: 1,376, R: 1,411)
Thailand Research Department
Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041
Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090
Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056
Mr. Napat Siworapongpun (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094
Ms. Sukanya Leelarwerachai (No.68790) Tel: 02 680 5331
Daily Market Outlook 22 Mar 2016
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Commerce Ministry maintains 5% export growth forecast this year. To
achieve that, the state will keep focusing on enhancement of Thai exporters’
competitiveness as well as product development. Further, the service sector
will be given more promotion because of its high rate of expansion. Also, the
ministry will lead Thai business operators to penetrate into foreign markets,
especially CLMV countries as well as other places such as Iran, Africa, Central
America, China, and India. (The Nation)
JAS (Bt3.68) defaulted on the 4G licence payment of Bt75.65bn yesterday.
JAS’ CEO was not available for comment on Monday. The regulator will set up
a special working panel and call an urgent meeting Wednesday to discuss
penalties for JAS and plans for a new auction round and inform the prime
minister thereafter. The regulator could now confiscate the guarantee JAS had
placed before the auction worth Bt645mn and JAS may have to pay Bt160mn
in compensation for auction operating expenses. The regulator may review
existing fixed broadband and digital TV operating licences of JAS’
conglomerate. (Reuters) Comment: The fallout of this default should make
the share price volatile in the short-term since it positively does not have
to enter the market which is already highly competitive and JAS will come
back to its existing fixed broadband business (FBB) with better returns
but the penalties should negatively affect the share price. In the long-term,
it should also be negative since JAS will likely lose significant market
share to mobile broadband operators. Other telcos (ADVANC, DTAC and
TRUE) should benefit from this news as there is no newcomer to raise
competition.
Global issues Producers from OPEC and non-members are due to meet on 17 Apr in
Qatar to discuss the output freeze. However, Iran is still seeking to increase
exports, following the lifting of Western sanctions in January. (Reuters)
The dollar edged up on Monday, bouncing back from a more than 1% loss
against major currencies last week as investors shook off dovish statements
from the Fed. The dollar index rose 0.15% to 95.200 after falling for a third
straight week. (Reuters)
US Treasury yields rose on Monday after two Fed officials gave bullish
projections on inflation and as investors prepared for new corporate debt sales.
Benchmark 10-year notes were last down 13/32 in price to yield 1.92%, up from
1.87% on Friday. The 10-year note's yields have fallen from a 1-1/2-month high
of 2.00% on Wednesday. (Reuters)
USA Wall Street shares ended slightly higher on Monday as a market-friendly
move by the US Federal Reserve last week countered concerns on market
valuation after a five-week rally. (Reuters)
US existing home sales fell sharply in February in a potentially troubling sign
for America's economy which has otherwise looked resilient to the global
economic slowdown. The National Association of Realtors said existing home
sales dropped 7.1% to an annual rate of 5.08mn units, the lowest level since
November. Economists had forecast home resales decreasing 2.8% to a pace
of 5.32mn units last month. Sales were up 2.2% YoY. (Reuters)
Europe European shares closed lower on Monday led by weaker commodity stocks.
(Reuters)
Euro zone consumer confidence fell in March and defied market
expectations of an improvement, a flash estimate by the EC showed on Monday.
The Commission said consumer confidence in the 19 countries sharing the euro
Daily Market Outlook 22 Mar 2016
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fell 0.9 points to -9.7 in March against February and was 0.7 points lower at -
7.3 in the wider, 28-nation European Union. (Reuters)
Asia Japan's government will consider front-loading some public works
spending earmarked for the fiscal year beginning in April to support an
economy skirting recession. The government's budget for the coming financial
year, sized at a record ¥96.7tn (US$867bn), is set to pass both houses of
parliament by the end of March. Once the budget is approved by parliament,
Abe will tell his cabinet ministers to front-load about ¥10tn in public works
projects set for the 2016/17 year. (Reuters)
China delists company for first time: The Shanghai Stock Exchange said on
Monday that it had for the first time de-listed a company for violating disclosure
rules. The exchange said that Zhuhai Boyuan Investment (600656.SS) had
broken the rules on important matters of information disclosure. (Reuters)
Commodities Oil prices rose about 1% on Monday as the OPEC and non-OPEC meeting
has been set for 17 Apr and data showed crude inventories at the Cushing,
Oklahoma delivery hub for US futures fell for the first time since January. Brent
crude futures for May delivery, the front-month, settled up 34 cents (+0.8%) at
US$41.54 a barrel. The US crude futures for May contract finished up 38 cents
at US$41.52. Crude stockpiles in Cushing fell 570,574 barrels to 69.05mn in
the week to March 18. (Reuters)
Gold fell on Monday, extending losses for a third day as the dollar arrested
three weeks of falls, but the metal was underpinned by expectations that the
ultra-low interest rate environment will persist. Spot gold was down 0.7% at
US$1,246.32 an ounce. US gold futures for April delivery were down US$7.20
an ounce at US$1,247.10. (Reuters)
Daily Market Outlook 22 Mar 2016
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Please see disclaimer on last page
Date Regions
21-Mar-16 US
22-Mar-16 EU
22-Mar-16 EU
22-Mar-16 US
23-Mar-16 US
24-Mar-16 EU
24-Mar-16 US
24-Mar-16 JPY
25-Mar-16 US
25-Mar-16 US
Economic Indicators
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Feb)
Durable Goods Orders (Feb)
National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
Markit PMI Composite (Mar)
Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q4)
Targeted LTRO
Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q4)
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
1 2 3 4
XD
BAFS
BROCK
DAII
DCC
DELTA
FSS
IFS
MBKET
SAT
SPVI
TAE
TASCO
TCC
UNIQ
XD
BCP
PLANB
RATCH
TK
TMT
YUASA
XD
AMATAR
FPI
OGC
PTT
TNP
XD
ERW
GOLDPF
KPNPF
MJLF
MTI
NKI
ROBINS
THANI
TMI
TREIT
7 8 9 10 11
XD
ASK
CFRESH
CSC
CSC-P
GFPT
HANA
QLT
SPALI
THREL
TKN
TKT
TNDT
TU
XD
ASP
AYUD
BA
CBG
GLAND
GOLD
INOX
IT
JCT
K
KBS
KKC
KSL
MAKRO
MSC
NSI
ORI
PTG
RS
SGP
TNITY
TTW
UTP
WORK
XD
AGE
ASIMAR
AUCT
BKI
DRT
MEGA
NYT
PS
SCP
SMK
SUSCO
TCCC
TIP
TWP
UV
XD
2S
APURE
BH
BH-P
BR
CM
CMR
DTC
DTCI
EGCO
KCAR
MCOT
NCH
OISHI
PRIN
PSTC
SPACK
SPCG
SVH
SVOA
TCMC
TMD
UEC
XD
JCP
LANNA
LUXF
SINGER
SPG
SUTHA
TPP
UVAN
WINNER
14 15 16 17 18
XD
CWT
M-II
PDG
PRANDA
PRG
SCI
SR
TAKUNI
TMILL
XD
BAT-3K
BFIT
CPI
CPL
GLOBAL
LALIN
MACO
MBK
PATO
PYLON
SIRI
SKR
XD
OTO
SAMART
SAMTEL
XD
ABPIF
CCET
HTC
SNP
SSTPF
WHAPF
XD
AH
CKP
TPIPL
21 22 23 24 25
XD
CNS
RAM
STPI
VIH
XD
EA
EARTH
LOXLEY
M-CHAI
TTI
TVO
VNG
XD
KIAT
STEC
XD
DCON
WG
WIIK
XD
BUI
CTW
KCE
UP
UPF
28 29 30 31
XD
GBX
NTV
PMTA
SUC
SYNEX
TKS
TTA
UMI
ZMICO
XD
BDMS
CGH
IFEC
LEE
TIC
TIC-P
XD
SF
TBSP
XD
ADVANC
CSL
IRCP
Q-CON
RCL
TGCI
Mar-16
5
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CG Rating
Score Range Number of Logo Description
90 – 100
80 – 89
70 – 79
60 – 69
50 – 59
Below 50
No logo given
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Satisfactory
Pass
N/A
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2015.
Corporate Governance Report disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors
Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant
to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed
on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative
Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a
general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of
a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate
Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey
result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company
Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EGCO GRAMMYHANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINTMONO NKI PHOL PPS PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMARTSAMTEL SAT SC SCB SCC SE-ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCO TKT TMBTOP VGI WACOAL
AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIP BMCL BOL BROOKBWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNT COL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTADEMCO ECF EE ERW GBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICCICHI INET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBK MC MEGAMFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGC OISHI OTO PAP PDI PEPG PJW PM PPP PR PRANDA PREB PT PTG Q-CON QH RS S&JSABINA SAMCO SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMT SNPSPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWC SYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSPTCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANI THIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TKTKS TMI TMILL TMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUETSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWPC UAC UT UVVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICOVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO
2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAH AMARIN AP APCOAQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTY BEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHIBKD BTNC CBG CGD CHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSCCSP CSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIRE FOCUS FORTHFPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLAND GLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECHIEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCP ITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGIKKC KTIS KWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJOR MAKROMATCH MATI MBKET M-CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERN MOONG MPG MSC MTIMTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYT OCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDGPF PICO PL PLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCIRCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCN SCP SEAOIL SIRISKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCG SPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPISUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEX TAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TICTIW TLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMI UP UPFUPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WIN XO
Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)
6
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CG Rating
ขอมล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบรษทจดทะเบยน
ระดบ 1ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT-3K BIG BJCBLISS BMCL BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH CSC CSPCTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS FSMART GIFT GLANDGRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH IHL ILINK ITD JSP KDH KTIS KTP LEE LSTMAJOR MATCH MAX M-CHAI MDX MIDA ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL NWR OHTLPICO PK PL PPM PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC PYLON RAM RICH RS SANKOSAUCE SAWAD SAWANG SCN SEAFCO SF SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPGSPPT SPVI STA STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ TCOAT THTKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTA TTI TTL TTTMTWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UTP UVAN VARO VI VIBHA VIH VTEWG
ระดบ 22S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT BH BKDBLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBALHEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX MMALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PBPCA PRINC QH ROCK RPC S&J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKONSUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUETSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO
ระดบ 3AABC ACAP ADVANC AEC AGE AH AIE AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE ASASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO CHOTICM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EAECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFECINOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKROMC MCOT MFC MFEC MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSINTV OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PSQLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGERSITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMCSYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TNL TPCORPTMILL TMT TSTE TSTH TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHAZMICO
ระดบ 3BAAV AHC AI AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BECL BJCHI BUICGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG F&DFANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRCP IT JCTKCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPKNUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTLQ-CON QTC RCI S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIMSLP SMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSPTCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW TNDT TOPP TPC TPCHTPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPOWAVE WINNER YUASA
ระดบ 4ASP BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BKI BLA CIMBT CNS CSL DCC DRT DTCEASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNCSNP SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TIMB TMD TNITY TOG
ระดบ 5BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP
ไมเปดเผยหรอไมมนโยบายA ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO CPR CRANE EICFER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MBAX MCS METCO NEW NEWS NYTPAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSFTVT WORKหมายเหตระดบ 1 : มนโยบายระดบ 2 : ประกาศเจตนารมณระดบ 3 : มมาตรการปองกน ซงทง 2 กรณ ถอเปนผลการประเมนในระดบเดยวกน
3A : บรษทมการประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค3B : บรษทมค ามน และนโยบายของบรษท แตมไดประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค
ระดบ 4 : ไดรบการรบรองระดบ 5 : ขยายผลสผท เกยวของ
7
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