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PEST Analysis

Understanding "Big Picture" Forces of Change

(Also known as PESTLE, PESTEL, PESTLIED, STEEPLE and SLEPT

Analysis)

PEST Analysis is a simple, useful and widely-used tool that helps youunderstand the "big picture" of yourPolitical, Economic, Socio-Cultural andTechnological environment. As such, it is used by business leaders worldwideto build their vision of the future.

It is important for these reasons:

First, by making effective use of PEST Analysis, you ensure that what

you are doing is aligned positively with the powerful forces of change that are

affecting our world. By taking advantage of change, you are much more likely

to be successful than if your activities oppose it;

Second, good use of PEST Analysis helps you avoid takingaction that is doomed to failure from the outset, for reasons beyondyour control; and Third, PEST is useful when you start operating in a new countryor region. Use of PEST helps you break free of unconsciousassumptions, and helps you quickly adapt to the realities of the new

environment.

How to use the tool:

PEST is a simple mnemonic standing for Political, Economic, Socio-Culturaland Technological.

To use this tool, follow this three stage process

The following factors may help as a starting point for brainstorming (but make

sure you include other factors that may be appropriate to your situation):

Political:

Government type and stability

Freedom of press, rule of law and levels of bureaucracy and corruption

Regulation and de-regulation trends

Social and employment legislation

Tax policy, and trade and tariff controls

Environmental and consumer-protection legislation

Likely changes in the political environment


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Economic:

Stage of business cycle

Current and project economic growth, inflation and interest rates

Unemployment and labor supply

Labor costs

Levels of disposable income and income distribution

Impact of globalization

Likely impact of technological or other change on the economy

Likely changes in the economic environment

Socio-Cultural:

Population growth rate and age profile

Population health, education and social mobility, and attitudes to these

Population employment patterns, job market freedom and attitudes to work

Press attitudes, public opinion, social attitudes and social taboos

Lifestyle choices and attitudes to these

Socio-Cultural changes

Technological Environment:

Impact of emerging technologies

Impact of Internet, reduction in communications costs and increasedremote working

Research and Development activity Impact of technology transfer

Figure 1 below shows this in diagrammatic format:

Figure 1: PEST Analysis in Diagrammatic Format


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Business Environment Defined

Business environment is a set of political, economic, social and

technological (PEST) forces that are largely

outside the control and influence of a business,

and that can potentially have both a positive and a negative impact onthe business.1

PEST Analysis

Today's world is a rapidly changing place. Developments across a range

of factors will have an impact on your business or industry. The classic

PEST framework (political, economic, social, technological) identifies

four major categories of external factors that affect the ability of your

organization to survive and prosper.

Strategy Formulation

Strategy formulation is the process of determining appropriate courses

of action for achieving organizational objectives and thereby

accomplishing organizational purpose... More

What is Your Competitive Strategy?

Competitive strategy means deliberately choosing a different setof activities to deliver a unique and superior mix ofvalue to thecustomer. These activities are the basis of yourcompetitive

advantage... More3 Market Leadership Strategies

The market leaderis dominant in its industry and has substantial market

share. If you want to lead the market, you must be the industry leader in

developing new business models and new products or services. You

must be on the cutting edge of new technologies and innovative

business processes. Yourcustomer value proposition must offer a

superior solution to a customers' problem, and your product must be

well differentiated... More

SWOT Analysis: Questions To Answer

Opportunities

What trends do you see in your industry?

What trends do you foresee?

What trends might impact your industry?... More

Creating a Culture for Innovation

By viewing corporate culture as the result of various explicit andimplicit decisions, actions and events that have transpired over time, it
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becomes possible to identify the factors that shape and drive culture.

The following model suggests that culture results from the ongoing

interplay between several variables including:

The external environment emerging trends, competition,

customer, technology, environmental, regulatory and other factorsthat influence the organization from the outside... More

STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN LIBRARY
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AN INTRODUCTION TO ITS COLLECTIONS, SERVICES ANDFACILITIES

Fresh Arrivals Bulletin Part I List of Books & Reports addedin SBP library during the month of December 2008 Fresh Arrivals Bulletin Part II List of Periodicals received inSBP Library during December 2008

Current Contents Subject wise list of articles selected fromvarious journals received in the library during December 2008

INTRODUCTION

In order to cater to information needs of the personnel of ResearchDepartments and other employees of the State Bank of Pakistan, alibrary was setup in 1949 at Central Directorate, Karachi. Ever sinceestablishment, the library remained administratively associated withResearch Departments till March 2005 when it was placed withCorporate Services Department as a result of restructuring andbusiness process re-engineering in the SBP. The library remainedhoused at 5th floor of the main building till 1996 when it was shiftedto the old magnificent building originally constructed by the ImperialReserve Bank of India adjacent to main SBP building. .Later on, itwas moved in the newly renovated building of Learning ResourceCentre (LRC) adjacent to the main SBP building in November 2005.The SBP library has a rich collection of books, technical reports,Government documents, periodicals and magazines mainly relatingto the subjects of Economics, Banking, Finance, Management,Commerce, etc. Besides, sufficient reading material on Islam (in

English, Urdu, Arabic, and Persian languages) and literary works inNational and Regional languages are also available in the library.Over the years, the library has grown into one of the biggest andwell-stocked libraries of the country on these subjects. The libraryfacilities have been so designed that the latest as well as archivalmaterials on the subjects related to Economics, banking, finance andallied subjects are readily within easy access of the readers. Inaddition to printed resources, the library provides online access toresearch journals and a host of digital resources to the readers, and

provides the adequate modern facilities and services to its readers in
http://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Fresh%20Arrivals%20Bulletin%20Part%20I%20List%20of%20Books%20&%20Reports%20added%20in%20SBP%20library%20during%20the%20month%20of%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Fresh%20Arrivals%20Bulletin%20Part%20I%20List%20of%20Books%20&%20Reports%20added%20in%20SBP%20library%20during%20the%20month%20of%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Fresh%20Arrivals%20Bulletin%20Part%20II%20List%20of%20Periodicals%20received%20in%20SBP%20Library%20during%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Fresh%20Arrivals%20Bulletin%20Part%20II%20List%20of%20Periodicals%20received%20in%20SBP%20Library%20during%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Current%20Contents%20Subject%20wise%20list%20of%20articles%20selected%20from%20various%20journals%20received%20in%20the%20library%20during%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Current%20Contents%20Subject%20wise%20list%20of%20articles%20selected%20from%20various%20journals%20received%20in%20the%20library%20during%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Fresh%20Arrivals%20Bulletin%20Part%20I%20List%20of%20Books%20&%20Reports%20added%20in%20SBP%20library%20during%20the%20month%20of%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Fresh%20Arrivals%20Bulletin%20Part%20I%20List%20of%20Books%20&%20Reports%20added%20in%20SBP%20library%20during%20the%20month%20of%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Fresh%20Arrivals%20Bulletin%20Part%20II%20List%20of%20Periodicals%20received%20in%20SBP%20Library%20during%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Fresh%20Arrivals%20Bulletin%20Part%20II%20List%20of%20Periodicals%20received%20in%20SBP%20Library%20during%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Current%20Contents%20Subject%20wise%20list%20of%20articles%20selected%20from%20various%20journals%20received%20in%20the%20library%20during%20December%202008.pdfhttp://www.sbp.org.pk/library/Current%20Contents%20Subject%20wise%20list%20of%20articles%20selected%20from%20various%20journals%20received%20in%20the%20library%20during%20December%202008.pdf


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a very friendly & conducive environment.

COLLECTION DEVELOPMENT POLICY

The State Bank library has ever been financed adequately throughannual budget as well as special grants for procurement of books andperiodical literature. The library adheres to policy of spending itsannual and special grants, keeping a ratio of 75:25 between

specialized subjects (economics, banking, finance, commerce,management, information technology, etc.) to subjects of generalinterests like Islam, history, geography & travel, social sciences,literature, science & technology disciplines, in order to maintainbalance, evenness and comprehensiveness in collection to cater toinformation and reading requirements of all the bank employees. ABooks Selection Committee, comprising highly qualified andexperienced researchers and bankers, meets on monthly basis toselect the latest books received from different local booksellers.

Moreover, requests from departments, individual researchers orother employees of the bank for specific books & periodicalspertaining to their respective pursuits are also entertained. All outefforts are made to ensure the availability of standard readingmaterial in the library. Besides purchases, the library receivespublications of central banks; United Nations organs including IMF,the World Bank, ESCAP, WTO, UNCTAD, etc., and othersinternational organizations like OPEC, OECD, Asian Development

Bank, Islamic Development Bank, Bank for InternationalSettlements, etc.; local public/private sector banks, financial &industrial institutions, governments departments and researchorganizations on complimentary or exchange basis.

SALIENT COLLECTIONS

The State Bank library has historical collections of books; periodical

literature; annual reports of central and commercial banks, financial

institutions and industrial undertakings; budgets, gazettes and other


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publications of federal and provincial governments; the publications

of United Nations organs like the World Bank, IMF, FAO, UNDP,

WTO, ESCAP etc.; local and foreign newspapers; and clipping files

pertaining to economic, financial and political issues.

A brief overview of our collection is given below:

Subject No. of Books

(approximately)

Economics, Banking, Finance andCommerce

32,000

Management, Accountancy andInformation Technology

5000

Islam 5000

General and Applied Sciences 5000

History, Biographies, Geography andTravel

5000

Art and Literature 6000

Laws, Political Science, Agriculture,Education, Sociology, Psychology, etc.

20,000

(English on all subjects) 65,000

(Urdu) 8,000

(Arabic) 4,100

Regional languages 1,100

(Punjabi, Pushto, Sindhi, Balochi)

Rare books 900

(Urdu & English on history of Indo-Pak


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and Islam)

Religious Books

The library has Translations and Tafaseers (in Urdu and English) of

the Holy Quran by prominent scholars like Allama Ibn-e-Kaseer,

Maulana S.A.A. Maududi, Maulana Abu-ul-Kalam Azad, Allama

Shabbir Ahmed Usmani, M.M. Pikthal and Maulnan Muhammad Shafi,

all the six authentic collections of Ahadith, notable sources of Islamic

Jurisprudence (Fiqah or Fatawaa) like Kitab-ul-Fiqa, Ain-

ul_Hadaya, Fatawaa Alamgiri, Badai-us-Sannai, etc. and

prominent books on Islamic history including Tareekh Ibn-e-

Khaldun and Tareekh-e-Tibri in English and Urdu for consultation.

Moreover, a large number of renowned Islamic books on faith,

practices, ethics, social and economic affairs, etc. are also available

in the library.

Periodical Literature

Journals being subscribed:

(approximately)

Foreign 118

Local 23

Journals being received oncomplimentary or exchange basis:

107

(including monthly/bimonthly/quarterly


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economic/financial/statisticalbulletins/reviews issued by differentcentral banks, local and foreignfinancial institutions, researchorganizations, etc.)

Annual Reports:

Central Banks of different countries75

International and regional financialinstitutions

10

(Including the World Bank, IMF, WTO,Asian Development Bank, IslamicDevelopment Bank, Bank for InternationalSettlements, etc.)

Local institutions 62

(Including commercial banks, financialinstitutions, eminent industrialundertakings, etc.)

Foreign commercial Banks operated in

Pakistan and Investment Banks32

Companies 76

Foreign Financial Institutions / Banks 45

Central Banks Publications other thanAnnual Reports 134

Newspapers


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Local Dailies:

Sr. No. Newspaper Title Language

1 Business Recorder English

2 Daily Times English

3 Dawn English

4 Pakistan Times English

5 The Financial Daily English

6 The Frontier Post English

7 The Nation English

8 The News English

9 Jang Urdu

10 Jasarat Urdu

11 Express Urdu

12 Kainat Urdu

13 Ummat Urdu

14 Aaj Kal Urdu

15 Intikhab Urdu

16 Khabrain Urdu

17 Pakistan Urdu

18 Islam Urdu

19 Riyasat Urdu

20 Nawa-e-Waqt Urdu

21 Ummat Urdu


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22 Hilal-e-Pakistan Urdu

23 Awami Awaz Sindhi

24 kawish Sindhi

Foreign Newspapers:

Sr. No. Newspaper Title Language

1 Asian Wall Street Journal (Hong Kong) English

2 Financial Times (UK) English

3 Gulf News (UAE) English

4 Herald Tribune (Bangkok) English

5 Khaleej Times (UAE) English

6 The Time (UK) English

The library has complete files of eminent national dailies in English

and Urdu since 1988. The bound volumes of newspapers pertaining

to the period 1953 to 1987 were donated to Hamdarad University

library in past in view space constrains.

Budget Documents

Federal Government 1947-48 to 2007-08

Punjab Province 1970-71 to 2007-08

Sindh Province 1970-71 to 2007-08

N.W.F.P. 1970-71 to 2007-08

Balochistan 1970-71 to


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2007-08

Karachi Metropolitan Corporation1974-75 to

2000

Gazette Documents

Government of India 1938 to 1965

West Pakistan Gazette 1954 to 1969

Dacca Gazette 1949 to 1970

Government of Pakistan 1947 to 2007

Government of Punjab 1950 to 1998

Government of Sindh 1950 to 1992

Government of NWFP 1950 to 1983

Government of Balochistan 1971 to 1983

Government Publications

The books and reports issued by various agencies of the federalgovernment, periodically or occasionally, have been organized in theseparate section. Being the sources containing primary and official

data or view point on different socioeconomic aspects, these booksare extensively consulted by the SBP researchers, statisticians andexecutives as well as the outsiders including bankers, universitystudents, journalists and free lancers visiting the library inconnection with their reference & research work. The library hasalmost complete archive of renown government publicationsincluding:

Economic Survey 1948 to 2006-07

Pakistan Statistical Yearbook 1947 to 2007 Population and Housing Census Reports 1951, 1961, 1971, 1981


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and 1998 Population Growth Surveys 1968 to 1979 Pakistan Demographic Survey 1984 to 2005-06 Pakistan Basic Facts 1949 to 1985

Some Socioeconomic Trends 1980 to 1983 Census of Agriculture, Agricultural Machinery and Livestock 1960,1972, 1980, 1990, 1994 and 2000 Census of Mining Industries 1969 to 1989-1990 Census of Manufacturing Industries 1954 to 2000-01 CBR Yearbook 1986-87 to 2004-05 Statistics Relating to Share Capital of Joint Stock CompaniesRegistered in Pakistan 1956 to 1990 Pakistan Rural Credit Survey 1985. Census of Establishments 1964, 1967 The Pakistan Code. 19 Volumes (both old and revised editions) The Statutory Rules, Orders made under central Enactment. 2Volumes. Un-repealed Central Acts. 11 Volumes. Government Sponsored Corporations 1966 to 1990 Annual Report on Public Sector Industries 1984-85 to 2001-2002 National Accounts of Pakistan 1969 to 2004-05

Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 1951-52 to 2005-06 Acts and Ordinances 1948 to 1984 Labour Force Surveys 1970-71 to 2005-06 Enquiry on Labour Welfare 1971 to 1990 Annual Establishment Enquiry 1973-74 to 1989-90 Five Year Plans including their reviews and evaluation reports1955-60, 1960-65, 1965-70, 1970-75, 1978-83, 1983-88, 1988-93,1993-98, and 1998-2003 Annual Plans 1965-66 to 2007-08

Annual Development Programme 1961 to 1977 Public Sector Development Plans 1970-71 to 2007-08 Pakistan Customs Tariff 1985 to 2004-2005 Pakistan Energy Yearbook 1983 to 2006 Pakistan Insurance Yearbook 1948 to 2004-05 Fertilizer Review (Annual) 1989-90 to 2005-06

The books pertaining to this section are marked as Referencesources and issued to the Research & Statistics Departments only for

a limited period to facilitate their reference & research work.


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United Nations Publications

The library has a historical collection of regular publications issued bydifferent organs of the United Nations including the World Bank,International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, UNCTAD,WTO, ESCAP, FAO, etc. Besides a large number of research reports,analyses, surveys, staff papers, working papers, etc. issued by theseagencies under different programmes, the library has complete andupdated records of the following periodic publications of thesebodies:

Asian Development Outlook 1989 to 2007

Balance of Payments Yearbook 1947 to 2006 Demographic Yearbook 1948 to 2003 Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook 1981 to 2007 Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 1977 to 2007 Economic Survey of Europe 1948 to 1994-95 Emerging Stock Markets Factbook 1991 to 2007 Foreign Trade Statistics of Asia and the Pacific 1971 to 2004 Global Competitiveness Report 1999-2008 Global Development Finance 1997 to 2005 (later editions can beaccessed through GDF Online) Global Economic Prospects 1991 to 2007 Government Finance Statistics Yearbook 1977 to 2006 Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics 1990to 2004

Human Development in South Asia 1997 to 2006 Human Development Report 1992 to 2006 International Financial Statistics 1979 to 2005 International Trade 1960 to 1991-92 International Trade Statistics (WTO) 2002-2006 International Trade Statistics Yearbook 1955 to 2006 National Accounts Statistics 1990 to 2002 Small Industries for Asia and the Pacific 1968 to 1993 Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 1991 to 2004

Trade & Development Report 1981 to 2007


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General Encyclopaedias such as Encyclopaedia Americana,

Encyclopaedia Britinica, Colliers, Encyclopaedia, EverymansEncyclopaedia, Oxford Encyclopedia, New Universal Encyclopaedia,etc. Subject Encyclopaedias such Encyclopaedia of Islam, E.J. Brill FirstEncyclopaedia of Islam, Encyclopaedia of Seerah, Encyclopedia ofQuran; Encyclopaedia of the Modern Islamic World, Encyclopaedia ofChemical Technology, International Encyclopaedia of Labour Laws &Industrial Relations, McGraw-Hill Encyclopaedia of Science &Technology, Economics, Banking, Management, Macmillans

Encyclopaedia of Computers, Encyclopaedia of Religions, AmericanEducator, Encyclopaedia of Philosophy, International Encyclopaediaof Statistics, International Encyclopaedia of Social Sciences,Encyclopaedia of Accounting, Encyclopaedia of World Arts,Encyclopaedia of Asia History, etc. Leading language dictionaries such as those of Oxford, Chambers,BBC, Ferozsons, National Language Authority, etc. Subject dictionaries of economics, banking, accounting, finance,management, commerce, IT, and other subjects published bydifferent publishers. World of Learning 1948 to 2004 Europa World Yearbook 1964 to 2004 Statesmans Yearbook 1975 to 2000 Guinness Book of World Records 1990 to 2008 Yearbook of Middle East and North Africa 1981 to 1998 Yearbook of Pacific South of the Sahra 1967 to 1998 Yearbook of Far East and Australia 1979 to 1998

Biographical Sources such as International Who is Who 1950 to1996-97, McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of World Biography, Dictionary ofNational Biography. Whitakers Almanacs (yearbook). Banker Almanac 2008 Educational Guide of Pakistan 2000 to 2004 Pakistan Almanacs 2000-01 and 2005-2006 Pakistan Yearbook 1971 to 1994-95 A number of Encyclopedias, dictionaries and other sources on

different subjects in Urdu, Arabic and regional languages Different Atlases published by reputed local and foreign publishers


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DIGITAL RESOURCES

The SBP also subscribes to a number of digital resources, which arelisted below:

subscribing to 31 online research journals. SBP library has also toaccess the following websites through HEC Digital Library Program:

EBSCOHOST, which provides access to over 17250 abstracted andindexed journals of which over 1300 are available as full-text withover 4700 of these being fully peer-reviewed.

SPRINGLERLINK, which provides access to 503 full-text Springer-Verlag journals and 738 full-text journals formerly published byKluwer Academic Press.

The SBP library is also subscriber ofWorld Bank Online Resources(including WB-e-library, Global Development Finance & WorldDevelopment Indicators).

Besides, following databases on CD-ROMs are also available in thelibrary as useful reference & research tools for memebrs:1. ECONLIT, 1969-2006 with monthly updates2. World Development Reports 1978-20063. TRADECAN: Database and Software for Competitiveness Analysisof Nations, 2005

ORGANIZATION OF MATERIALS

The library follows different schemes for classification and effectiveorganization of different kinds of literature. The book collections havebeen classified according to Dewy Decimal Classification System(001-999) and arranged systematically subject-wise in differentsections in the main hall for instant retrieval by the users. The libraryhas adopted open shelf system for offering full, free and independentbrowsing facility to the users for scanning all books, journals,reports, files etc. available in different sections meeting their

requirements. The library has implemented computerized relationaldatabase management system comprising modules for cataloguing of


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books, serial control, circulation routines, clippings, gazettes, etc.developed in Oracle for efficient storage and retrieval services since1997. The online public access catalogue (OPAC) has been madeavailable for readers for independent searching of the library

databases. The OPAC designated as Library Online is availablebank-wide to all users having access to SBP Electronic Board.The periodical literature has been housed in a separate section,where back volumes of all the journals have been arranged inalphabetical order. The current issues of the journals and other serialpublications are displayed separately. All the articles appearing inforeign and local journals are regularly indexed according toClassification of Periodical Literature developed by AmericanEconomic Association. A separate and updated database of articles,which is a distinctive feature of this library, is available to the usersfor searching the records relating to their interest or requirementpublished in various local and foreign journals.The Budget and Gazette documents have been primarily placedprovince wise and further arranged in chronological order, whereasthe clipping files on different subjects are organized by numbersrepresenting the subjects and within given subject are arrangedchronologically. Similarly, the back volumes of newspapers are

housed in a separate room and placed title wise in chronologicalorder.

LIBRARY SERVICES AND MEMBERSHIP

Besides SBP employees, this library is open to all the interested

persons including universities students, academicians, researchers,

bankers, journalist, businessmen, lawyers free lancers and other

professional for reference and consultation. However the borrowing

rights and limits are granted on the basis of categories of

membership. Presently, membership of library is open to all the in-

service and retired employees of State Bank of Pakistan as well as

the outsider friends including universities students, faculty members,

research scholars, bankers, business professionals, lawyers, media

persons, etc. Besides the historical and latest collections of books,


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journals, reports, newspapers, etc., the library has the vital facilities

like Internet, photocopying machines and independent research

desks in peaceful environment for the convenience of its friends. The

library is open to all users from 9:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. daily

(Monday through Friday) and from 9:00 am to 4:30 pm on Saturday.

Besides compilation of selective bibliographies, catalogues and

indices, the library compiles the following two monthly publications

to disseminate information about its recent acquisitions to the

researchers and executives in the bank and other local academic and

financial institutions to optimize the readership. These publications

are posted on a regular basis at SBP website and Electronic Board for

information of readers at large:

Fresh Arrivals, giving bibliographic description of books, reports,

journals, etc. received in the library during a month. All thedocuments are listed title-wise under broad subjects of economics

and banking. Author index and descriptors (subject) index are also

given to enable the access of the users to their required documents.

Current Contents, containing bibliographic citations of selected

articles taken from different research journals. The citations are

primarily arranged by authors under broader subjects.

FRIENDS OF SBP LIBRARY MEMBERSHIP PROGRAM

In this era of information and economic crunch when there isexponential rise in literature especially in the disciplines of


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economics, banking, finance, management, information technology,etc., costs of books and research journals are soaring and paucity offunds prevails, it has become virtually impossible for the librariesindividually to cater to growing needs of readers. The management

of SBP has launched Friends of SBP Library Membership Programsince 2001 under which outsiders including universities students,faculty members, bankers, business professionals, media persons,etc. have been allowed to use SBP library facilities. They have beenpermitted to utilize the existing potential resources of the banklibrary and avail borrowing facility thereby promoting readership.This program seeks to help those who are endeavoring in researchand development process and find it difficult to get adequateinformation pertinent to their pursuits. This program has received anenthusiastic response from the students, bankers, academicians,lawyers, businessmen, journalists, etc. and so far we have 1500registered members under this category.

For further details / enquiries please contact:

Mr. Bashir Ahmed ZiaChief LibrarianPh: 021-9212460 & 021-2453069Fax: 021-9211009E-mail [email protected]

List of Journals / Periodicals Subscribed for SBP Library Magazines Of General Interest List of Journals / Periodicals Received on ComplimentaryBasis in SBP Library List of Journals / Periodicals Received on ComplimentaryBasis in SBP Library - Magazines, Bulletins, Newsletters, Etc. ofGeneral Interest Subject Headings of Clipping Files

Suggestions For Selection Of Book(S) For SBP Library

Suggest Form

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Highlights of Economic Survey ofPakistan 2006-07

Published on 6/9/2007

ISLAMABAD (June 09 2007): Pakistan's economy continues to gain traction as it experiences

the longest spell of its strongest growth in years. The outcomes of the outgoing fiscal year

indicate that Pakistan's upbeat economic momentum remains on track.

Economic growth accelerated to 7.0 percent in 2006-07 on the back of robust growth in

agriculture, manufacturing and services. Economic growth has been notably stable and

resilient.

With economic growth at 7.0 percent in 2006-07, Pakistan's real GDP grew at an average

rate of 7.0 percent per annum during the past five years (2003-07), and over 7.5 percent in

four years running (2004-07).

Compared with other emerging economies in Asia, this put Pakistan as one of the fastest

growing economies in the region, along with China, India and Vietnam The good performance

resulted from a combination of generally sound economic policies and on-going structural

reforms.

Based on the performance of half a decade of strong, stable, resilient and broad-basedeconomic growth, it appeared that Pakistan's economy would continue to be a high-mean,

low-variance economy over the medium term.

This year's economic growth was mainly driven by strong domestic demand, with investment

taking lead over consumption for the first time in last three years. This year's economic

growth benefited from higher consumption and investment demand owing to a growing middle

class and favourable demographics. Increased contribution of investment to growth was a

healthy development as it engendered employment growth, which supported consumption

demand and together they played an important role in sustaining strong growth momentum in

the medium term.


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SECTOR WISE PERFORMANCE GROWTH AND INVESTMENT: Real GDP growth

accelerated to 7.0 percent in 2006-07 as against the revised estimates of 6.6 percent of last

year and the 7.0 percent target for the year. The final estimate for 2004-05 had also been

revised upward to 9.0 percent as against the revised estimate of 8.6 percent for the year.

Thus, over the last four years the real GDP grew at an average rate of 7.5 percent per

annum.

AGRICULTURE: Agriculture is still the single largest sector of the national economy It made

a modest recovery this year. Overall agriculture grew by 5.0 percent in 2006-07 from 1.6

percent of last year. Within agriculture, the major crops witnessed strong recovery by growing

at 7.6 percent against a negative growth of 4.1 percent of last year.

Wheat production was up by 10.5 percent to 23.5 million tons--highest wheat production

recorded in the country's history. Sugarcane production, likewise, improved by 22.6 percent to

54.8 million tons--second highest size of the crop in the country's history.

Cotton production at 13.0 million bales remained at last year's level. Gram pulse, the other

major crop, exhibited an impressive growth of 75.4 percent in 2006-07 to 0.842 million tons

compared with 0.480 million tons of last year.

Livestock, with almost 50 percent contribution to agriculture, performed reasonably well at 4.3

percent this year as against a strong growth of 7.5 percent of last year.

MANUFACTURING: Manufacturing is the second largest sector of the economy, accounting

for 19.1 percent of GDP. Overall manufacturing grew by 8.4 percent this year against 10percent of last year. Large-scale manufacturing (LSM), accounting for nearly 70 percent of

overall manufacturing, grew by 8.8 percent against the target of 12.5 percent and last year's

achievement of 10.7 percent.

CONSTRUCTION: Construction continued its strong showing, partly helped by activity in

private housing market, spending on physical infrastructure, and reconstruction activities in

earthquake affected areas. The construction sector is estimated to have grown by 17.2

percent in 2006-07 as against 5.7 percent of last year.

SERVICES SECTOR: The services sector continued to perform strongly for third year in arow and grew by 8.0 percent in 2006-07 as against 9.6 percent of last year. Services sector

grew at an average rate of 8.7 percent per annum during the last three years.

PER CAPITA INCOME: Per capita income is regarded as one of the key indicators of

economic wellbeing of any country. Per capita income, defined as GNP at market price in

dollar terms divided by the country's population, grew by 11 percent this year to US $925, up

from US $833 of last year. The per capita income in dollar terms grew at an average rate of

13 percent per annum during last four years, rising from $586 in 2002-03 to $925 in 2006-07.

Courtesy of Business Recorder


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Executive Summary of Economic Survey 2007-08

Wednesday, June 11, 2008ISLAMABAD: The government on Tuesday released the Economic Survey 2007-08.Following is the Executive Summary of the survey.

Growth and Investment

Pakistans economy has shown great resilience against internal and external shocks ofvery high intensity and grew robustly at 5.8 percent in 2007-08, as against 6.8 percentlast year and this years target of 7.2 percent. The Commodity Producing Sector (CPS)

registered a growth of 3.2 percent in 2007-08 as against 6.0 percent last year owingmainly to the lackluster performance of agriculture and manufacturing. Whileagriculture grew by 1.5 percent, the manufacturing sector posted a modest growth of5.4 percent in 2007-08. The large scale manufacturing (LSM) sector witnessed amodest growth of 4.8 percent, down from 8.6 percent last year. The manufacturingsector has been hard hit by political instability, frequent eruptions of incidentsdetrimental to law and order and the acute energy shortages. In unison with increasingprices for fuel and energy, all these factors have caused slower growth in LSM. Growthin the small scale manufacturing sub-sector moderated to 7.5 percent in 2007-08 from8.1 percent during 2006-07.

The poor show of the agriculture sector was the result of a sharp deceleration in thegrowth of the major crops sub-sector, which posted a negative growth of 3.0 percent in2007-08 as against a healthy growth of 8.3 percent last year. Minor crops registered a

growth of 4.9 percent as against the negative growth of 1.3 percent last year. Fishingand forestry exhibited robust growth of 3.8 percent and 11.0 percent, respectively.

The services sector has surpassed the growth target of 7.1 percent and grew by 8.2percent in 2007-08 as against the actual achievement of 7.6 percent last year. Thefinance and insurance sector displayed a stellar growth performance of 17.0 percentduring 2007-08 as against 15 percent last year. Value added in the wholesale and retailtrade sector grew at 6.4 percent as compared to 5.4 percent last year and the target of7.8 percent this year. The Transport, Storage and Communication sub-sector saw adeceleration in growth to 4.4 percent in 2007-08 as compared to 6.5 percent of lastyear.

The contribution of CPS to GDP growth has declined to 26.6 percent from 42.4 percentlast year. Agriculture sector contributed only 0.3 percentage points or 5.6 percent toGDP growth in 2007-08 as against 0.8 percentage points or 12 percent contribution lastyear. The manufacturing sector contributed 1.0 percentage point or 17.7 percent toGDP growth as against 1.5 percentage points or 22.2 percent last year. Industrycontributed 1.2 percentage points or 20.9 percent to this years real GDP growth. TheServices sector contributed 4.2 percentage points or 73.4 percent to overall growth thisyear. The contribution made by wholesale and retail trade has been 18.7 percent or 1.1percentage points to GDP growth in 2007-08. Finance and insurance has alsocontributed 18.7 percent or 1.0 percentage point to this years growth.

Per capita income has grown at an average rate of above 13.0 percent per annumduring the last five years, rising from $586 in 2002-03 to $925 in 2006-07 and furtherto $1085 in 2007-08. Per capita income in dollar terms rose from $925 last year to$1085 in 2007-08, depicting an increase of 18.4 percent. Real per capita income inrupee terms has also increased by 4.7 percent, on average, for the last three years.

The real per capita income grew by 4.2 percent as compared to 4.9 percent last year.

Real private consumption expenditure grew by 8.5 percent in 2007-08 as opposed to4.1 percent last year.


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Total investment declined to 21.6 percent of GDP in 2007-08 from its peak level of 22.9percent last year. However, total investment has increased from 16.9 percent of GDP in2002-03 to 21.6 percent of GDP in 2007-08, showing an increase of 5.7 percent of GDPin five years. Fixed investment grew by 3.4 percent in real terms and 12.5 percent innominal terms. Private investment grew by 16.3 percent per annum in real terms and30.7 percent per annum in nominal terms during the period (2004-07). However, its

growth declined substantially to 0.9 percent in real terms and 9.7 percent in nominalterms. Major nominal growth in private sector investment was witnessed in mining &quarrying (15.3 percent), electricity & gas (11.0 percent), financial business (11.4percent), and wholesale and retail trade (18.4 percent).

National Savings stood at 13.9 percent of GDP in 2007-08 down from last years level of17.8 percent. Domestic savings has declined to 11.7 percent of GDP from 16.0 percentof GDP in 2006-07. Public sector investment has also increased by 30.0 percent perannum during the last three years and 20.2 percent during the current fiscal year innominal terms.

Overall foreign investment during the first ten months (July-April) of the current fiscalyear has declined by 32.2 percent and stood at $ 3.6 billion as against $5.3 billion inthe comparable period of last year, mainly because of the fact that the political

economy suffered many headwinds at continuous intervals.

Foreign direct investment (private) has shown more resilience and stood at $3481.6million during the first ten months (July-April) of the current fiscal year as against$4180.8 million in the same period last year, thereby showing a decline of 16.7percent. Private portfolio investment on the other hand witnessed a massive decline of91 percent by recording an inflow of $98.9 million as against $1097.3 million in thecomparable period of last year. Public foreign investment depicted a modest inflow ofonly $20.5 million as against an outflow of $66.6 million in the comparable period oflast year.

Almost 57 percent of FDI has come from three countries, namely, the UAE, US, and UK.US investors, with 33.4 percent investment, contributed the most during the first tenmonths (July-April) of 2007-08. Norway (4.4 percent or $154.8 million), Switzerland (4.1

percent or $141.3 million), Hong Kong (3.5 percent or $121.3 million), Netherlands (2.9percent or $101.0 million) and Japan (2.9 percent or $100.3 million) were the othercontributors to FDI inflows. Three groups, namely; communication, financial businessand oil & gas exploration, accounted for almost 67 percent of FDI inflows in the country.

Agriculture

Notwithstanding its declining share in GDP, agriculture is still the single largest sectorof the economy, contributing 21 percent to GDP and employing 44 percent of theworkforce. More than two-thirds of Pakistans population lives in rural areas and theirlivelihood continues to revolve around agriculture and allied activities. Like in otherdeveloping countries, poverty in Pakistan is largely a rural phenomenon. Therefore,

development of agriculture will be a principal vehicle for alleviating rural poverty. Therecent global food crises, while creating difficulties for net food importing countries, isequally providing opportunities for developing countries like Pakistan to get their actstogether and benefit from the current situation by giving more serious attention toagriculture.

The sustained higher growth in emerging economies has impacted the consumptionpatterns of households, including dietary changes towards higher quality food such asmeat and dairy products. As a result, the production of these items is rising globally. InPakistan, the livestock and dairy sectors accounts for 52 percent of agriculture, 11percent of GDP and affects the lives of 30-35 million people in rural areas. In order toachieve higher sustained growth in agricultural value added, it is absolutely necessaryto give due attention to the livestock and dairy sector to achieve multiple objectives,such as, the objectives of attaining food security and poverty reduction.

The growth performance of agriculture over the last six years has fluctuated in therange of 1.5 percent to 6.5 percent. The volatility in agricultural growth is mainly


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caused by the crop sector which is associated with the vagaries of Mother-Nature, pestattacks, ill effects of adulterated pesticides etc. Such volatility is detrimental to incomegrowth of farmers and hampers government efforts to reduce poverty.

Agriculture performed poorly in 2007-08, growing at 1.5 percent against the target of4.8 percent. This poor performance is mainly because of equally poor performance ofmajor crops and forestry, registering negative growths of 3.0 percent and 8.5 percent,

respectively. Livestock, minor crops and fishing have been the saving grace foragriculture as these sectors performed reasonably well and compensated for theperformance of major crops and forestry, which allowed the growth rate in agricultureto arrive at 1.5 percent this year. Major crops, accounting for 34 percent of agricultureand 7.1 percent of GDP, suffered on account of the poor showing of wheat and cottonand less than satisfactory performance of the rice crop. Sugarcane and maize, beingthe other two major crops, performed impressively in 2007-08.

The cotton crop suffered for a variety of reasons, including heavy rainfall in May 2007,which caused poor germination in Punjab, high temperatures during August andSeptember 2007, causing more shedding of fruit parts and pest attacks, especially thedangerous mealy bug infestation. Consequently, cotton production declined to 11.7million bales as against 12.9 million bales last year, registering a negative growth of 9.3percent. The wheat crop was adversely affected by the shortage of irrigation water to

the extent of 23.3 percent over normal supplies during Rabi and the inordinate spike inprices of DAP fertilizer. Accordingly, production of wheat declined to 21.7 million tonnesas against 23.3 million tonnes last year, thereby showing a decline of 6.6 percent. Insheer contrast, the two other major crops performed well with sugarcane recording thehighest ever production level of 63.9 million tonnes, 16.8 percent higher than last year.

The production of rice witnessed a modest growth of 2.3 percent and stood at 5.6million tonnes.

Minor crops, accounting for 12 percent in agriculture value added, posted a growth of4.9 percent against the negative growth of 1.3 percent last year. The performance oflivestock, accounting for 52.2 percent of agricultural value added, was satisfactory at3.8 percent. The performance of fisheries has been impressive as it grew by 11 percentin 2007-08 because inland fish catch increased by 11.1 percent, while the output ofmarine fishing grew by 11.5 percent during 2007-08. Forestry followed the traditional

negative growth pattern for the fifth year in a row. This small sector, with only onepercent stake in the overall value-addition in agriculture, registered a negative growthof 8.5 percent in 2007-08 as the turnout of production of timber and firewood duringthe year declined by 9.3 percent.

Pakistans agricultural output is closely linked with the supply of irrigation water.Against the normal surface water availability at canal heads of 103.5 million-acre feet(MAF), the overall (both for Kharif and Rabi) water availability has been lower in therange of 5.9 percent (2003-04) to 20.6 percent (2004-05). Relatively speaking, Rabiseason faced more shortage of water than Kharif during 2007-08.

During the current fiscal year (2007-08), the availability of water for Kharif 2007 (forthe crops such as rice, sugarcane and cotton) has been 5.5 percent more than thenormal supplies and 12.2 percent more than last years Kharif. The water availability

during Rabi season (for major crop such as wheat), as of end-March 2008 was,however, estimated at 27.9 MAF, which was 23.4 percent less than the normalavailability, and 10.5 percent less than last years Rabi, adversely affecting the wheatcrop, production of which has decreased by 6.6 percent over the last year.

Manufacturing

& Mining

Pakistans manufacturing sector recorded the weakest growth in a decade during theoutgoing fiscal year 2007-08. Overall manufacturing posted a growth of 5.4 percentduring the first nine months of the current fiscal year against the target of 10.9 percent

and 8.1 percent of last year. Large scale manufacturing, accounting for 70 percent ofoverall manufacturing, registered a growth of 4.8 percent in the current fiscal year2007-08 against the target of 12.5 percent and last years achievement of 8.6 percent.


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Heightened political tension, deteriorating law and order situation, growing powershortages, the cumulative impact of monetary tightening and rising cost of doingbusiness are the reasons responsible for the poor showing of manufacturing in 2007-08.

The main contributors to this growth of 4.8 percent during July-March 2007-08 over lastyear, are pharmaceuticals (30.7 percent), wood products (21.9 percent), engineeringproducts (19.5 percent ), food & beverages (11.1 percent), petroleum products (6.0

percent) and chemicals (3.1 percent). The individual items that displayed positivegrowth include cotton cloth (4.8 percent) and cotton yarn (3.3 percent) in the textilegroup; cooking oil (1.1 percent), sugar (33.9 percent) and cigarettes (5.1 percent) inthe food, beverages and tobacco group; cement (17.9 percent) in the non-metallicmineral products group; and buses (32.0 percent), LCVs (16.4 percent) andmotorcycles (28.1 percent) in the automobile group. A few items that showed a declinein production include fertilizers (16.9 percent), electronics (4.6 percent), paper & paperboard (5.5 percent) and iron & steel products (7.6 percent). The individual items thatexhibited negative growth include cars & jeeps (3.9 percent), phosphatic fertilizer (24.0percent) and billets (20.6 percent).

The mining and quarrying sector registered a growth rate of 4.9 percent as against atarget of 4.5 percent and 3.0 percent of last year. The higher growth was propelled bymagnetite (20.5 percent), lime stone (17.8 percent) and Baryte (15.6 percent).

With effect from January 1991 to February 2007, GoP has privatized around 166 units atRs475 billion (approx US$8.9 billion). The transactions carried out during the period of

July 2007 to February 2008 include UBLs divestment of 25 percent shares through aGDR fetched $650 million and was the biggest book building ever in Pakistans bankinghistory. Initially 21.74 percent (175.95 million) shares were divested in June 2007 fortotal proceeds of $565.4 million. Another 3.2 percent (26.39 million) shares weredivested in July 2007 for total proceeds of $84.81 million. The stock was priced at 5times to book which is the highest valuation compared to similar transactions globally.

The HBL-IPO was the largest offering ever in Pakistan in terms of value and the numberof successful applicants. A total subscription of Rs18.9 billion was received against thebase offer of Rs8.1 billion resulting in an over subscription of 2.3 times. The IPO hasgenerated gross proceeds worth Rs12.2 billion against the divestment of 51.8 millionshares (including a green shoe option of 17.2 million).

A new SMEs Policy 2007 was launched in fiscal year 2007-08, where an attempt hasbeen made to define uniformly, small and medium sectors in manufacturing, trade andservices sectors for all the stake-holders and give a broad frame-work for the promotionof SMEs by improving the regulatory, fiscal and business environment. The policydocument gives a broad frame-work for promoting and developing small and mediumsectors through institutionalization of the support structure, and outlines a strategy forSME-led private sector growth for poverty reduction and job creation.

Fiscal Developments

Fiscal year 2007-08 proved to be a difficult year for Pakistan, with several political and

economic events transpiring unexpectedly. Domestic and global headwinds have hadadverse consequences for fiscal discipline. Resultantly, the fiscal deficit is likely to missits target of 4.0 percent of GDP by a wide margin. The hard earned macroeconomicstability underpinned by fiscal discipline appears to have been evaporated.

Total revenues collected during the current year stood at Rs1545.5 billion, higher thanthe targeted level of Rs1476 billion. This increase of Rs69.5 billion from the budgetedrevenues was mainly due to higher than targeted non-tax revenues. There areexpectations that the FBR may fall short of its targeted level with total tax collections ofRs1.0 trillionRs25 billion less than the original target. It is also anticipated that thegovernment may receive an additional Rs103 billion from non-tax revenues, reachingto Rs483 billion. Slippages in provincial tax revenues amounted to Rs8 billion.

Pakistans tax revenue-to-GDP ratio stood at only 9.5 percent of GDP during 2007/08 as

compared to an average of 18 percent for other developing countries, indicating thatsubstantial tax policy reforms are still needed to broaden the tax base. The indirect tax-to-GDP ratio stood at around 6 percent, while the direct tax-to-GDP ratio was calculated


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to be 4 percent. The government recognizes the need to broaden the tax base andreduce marginal tax rates, which would stimulate investment and production. Theoverall services sectors, including wholesale and retail trade, as well as agriculture, arepotential candidates for broadening of the tax bases.

Gross and Net tax collection has increased by 12.3 percent and 16.3 percentrespectively. In absolute terms, these collections have gone up by Rs89.9 billion and

107.1 billion, respectively. Among the four federal taxes, the highest growth of 28.9percent was recorded in the case of federal excise receipts, followed by sales tax (19.5percent), direct taxes (12.5 percent) and customs (11.4 percent). The collection ofdirect taxes has suffered a substantial shortfall during July-April FY 07-08.

The total expenditure for 2007-08 was budgeted at Rs1875 billion, 11.9 percent higherthan last year. Current expenditure on the other hand was budgeted at Rs1378 billion,which was at previous years level. Development expenditure was targeted at Rs496billion, 16.7 percent higher than last year. On the basis of revenue and expenditureprojections, the overall fiscal deficit was targeted at Rs398 billion or 4 percent of GDPas against 4.3 percent last year. However, large slippages have occurred on theexpenditure side mainly on account of subsidies on oil, power, fertilizer, wheat andother foods.

Two factors had a significant impact on the budgetary outlook. Firstly, oil pricescontinued to rise at a greater pace, reaching as high as $115 per barrel in May 2008,an increase of over 116 percent during the fiscal year. Secondly, the lack of action onthe part of the government aggravated the fiscal situation as the high internationalprice of oil was not passed on to the domestic consumers. Consequently, the oil subsidyis projected to rise to Rs175 billion, over shooting the targeted level by Rs160 billion.Hoarding, smuggling and mismanagement of wheat operations forced the governmentto import 1.7 million tonnes of wheat at all time high prices.

Interest payments surpassed their targeted level by a significant margin. A sum ofRs375 billion was budgeted for interest payments in 2007-08, whereas they areestimated at Rs503.2 billion, thereby surpassing the targeted level by a staggeringRs128.2 billion. The adverse developments on the revenue and expenditure sidesresulted in massive slippages in the overall fiscal deficit for the year 2007-08. Against

the target of Rs398 billion or 4 percent of GDP the overall fiscal deficit is likely to beRs683.4 billion or 6.5 percent of GDP, the highest in the last ten years. In order tocounter massive gaps between budgeted and estimated targets in current expenditure,the government made efforts to mobilize more resources on the one hand, andpostpone development spending on the other. An adjustment of Rs100 billion wasmade in development expenditure.

Domestic and external shocks not only increased the size of the fiscal deficit but theyalso changed the composition of financing. The borrowing requirements increased fromRs324 billion to Rs683.4 billion, an increase of 111 percent. External resource inflowswere adversely affected by these shocks and against the budgeted level of Rs193billion, only Rs119.4 billion is likely to materialize. In addition to this, Pakistan could notcomplete the transaction of Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) of the National Bank ofPakistan and could not launch sovereign and exchangeable bonds. Furthermore, some

of the expected disbursements of multilateral banks and privatization proceeds werenot materialized. These developments had adversely impacted the external resourceinflows which remained below the budgeted level. Thus, the brunt of adjustments onthe financing side fell on domestic sources. Against the budgeted financing of Rs131billion from domestic sources, it increased to Rs564 billion. Within domestic sources,the bulk (82.2 percent) of financing came from banks while the remaining Rs100 billionor 17.8 percent came from non-bank sources. Most importantly, the borrowings fromthe State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reached an alarming level. Consequently, the moneysupply growth for the year 2007-08 is expected to breach the target of 13.7 percent.

Public debt as a percentage of GDP (a critical indicator of the countrys debt burden),which stood at 85 percent in end-June 2000, declined to 55.2 percent by end-June 2007,a reduction of almost 30 percentage points of GDP in seven years. The declining trendin public debt is likely to be reversed in 2007-08, mainly on account of yawning fiscal

and current account deficits and a sharp depreciation of the rupee vis--vis the USdollar. By end-March 2008 the public debt as percentage of full year GDP stood at 53.5percent. However, more damage has been done to public debt in the last quarter (April-


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June) of the current fiscal year, which means a further widening of the fiscal andcurrent account deficits, increased borrowing from domestic and external sources tofinance the deficits, and a sharper adjustment to the exchange rate. The year 2007-08is likely to end with public debt at around 56 percent of GDP, marking the first time in adecade to see a reversal in trends. Public debt in rupee terms has increased by 15.8percent in the first nine months (July-March) of the fiscal year 2007-08.

By end-June 2007 total domestic debt stood at Rs2610.2 billion which was estimated at30 percent of GDP. The outstanding stock of domestic debt rose by Rs409.9 billion andstood at Rs3020.1 billion by end-March 2008 or 30.3 percent of GDP. The domestic debthad increased by 15.7 percent by end-March 2008 over end-June 2007. The increase indomestic debt mainly emanates from floating debt (27.1 percent) while the other twocomponents, unfunded and permanent, witnessed a modest growth of 6.1 percent and9.4 percent, respectively.

Money & Credit

Pakistan has made significant progress in improving the health and soundness of thebanking and financial sector over the last two decades. During this period of

transformation, the financial sector of Pakistan has evolved into a more progressiveand dynamic module of the economy, both in response to the financial sector reformsand to the growing financing needs of an expanding economy. In response to thegrowing demands of financial globalization, Pakistans financial system is starting tointegrate with international financial markets.

The process of the tightening of monetary policy began in FY05, from being broadlyaccommodative to one more aggressive. The governments December 2004 decision tolift the freeze on domestic POL prices raised inflationary expectations, forcing a moreaggressive tightening of monetary policy. During FY08, the SBP continued with a tightmonetary policy stance, thrice raising the discount rate while also increasing the CashReserve Requirement (CRR) and the Statutory Liquidity Requirement (SLR). The impactof the tight monetary stance and liquidity management began to translate into a rise inother interest rates, with varied magnitude, at different stages of the economy. For

instance, the 6 months T-bills cutoff witnessed an increase of 97 basis points to 9.9percent during Jul-Apr FY08. Similarly, the 6 months and 12-months KIBOR alsoincreased by 77 basis points and 63 basis points to 10.38 percent and 10.71 percentrespectively.

In order to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy and avoid ambiguities insending out policy signals, the SBP has abolished the Annual Credit Plan (ACP). For2007-08, the SBP had assumed that with real GDP growth target of 7.2 percent andinflation target of 6.5 percent, the broad money (M2) growth should have grown by13.7 percent. The money supply growth slowed to 9.0 percent during July 2007-May 10,2008 compared to 14 percent during the corresponding period of FY07. The M2 growthis entirely attributable to a rise in net domestic assets (NDA) of the banking systemdriven by high government borrowings for budgetary support. The NDA of the bankingsystem registered an expansion of Rs656 billion during July 2007-May 10, 2008

compared with an expansion of Rs395 billion during the same period of last year. Thenet bank credit to the government for financing commodity operations and budgetarysupport amounted to Rs423 billion against Rs185 billion in the same period. Credit togovernment for commodity operations expanded by Rs60 billion compared to acontraction of Rs26 billion, while credit to government for budgetary support increasedto Rs362 billion. The NFA of the banking system registered a net contraction of Rs289billion compared to an expansion of Rs84 billion during this period. This contraction inNFA is attributable to delays in the issuance of GDRs, sovereign bonds, lower thanexpected receipts on account of logistics support, decline in foreign investment, lowerinflows from multilateral institutions, and SBPs decision to provide foreign exchange tosupport a part of oil payments even when the oil prices are at their historic high levels.Credit to private sector grew by 14.9 percent during July 2007-May 10, 2008 against12.2 percent in the same period of last year. The key factors contributing to the recentacceleration in private sector credit growth were (i) rise in working capital requirements

due to higher input costs, (ii) the need for bridge financing to settle price differentialclaims of OMCs and IPPs and (iii) the higher fixed investment in the month of March2008.


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The impressive performance of Pakistans banking sector has attracted considerableFDI inflows in recent years. The banking sector of Pakistan has undergone a visiblechange as about eighty percent of the banking assets are now controlled by the privatesector. Assets of all banks showed a net expansion of Rs203.1 billion in the first sixmonths of FY 08 and stood at Rs5155 billion as compared to Rs4351 billion in the sameperiod of last year.

The Islamic Financial industry in Pakistan has grown substantially in recent years. Totalassets of the Islamic banks reached Rs200.4 billion in FY 08 from Rs12.9 billion in FY03and had contributed 4.1 percent in banking assets till end-February 2008.

The importance of the SME sector cannot be overemphasized in the overall industrialdevelopment of a country. SMEs constitute nearly 90 percent of all the enterprises inPakistan, they employ 80 percent of the non-agriculture labor force and their share inthe annual GDP is nearly 40 percent. During FY08, credit to the SME sector decreasedto Rs18 billion from Rs30 billion during FY07.

The nonbank financial sector has historically played an important role in themobilization and channeling of savings in the financial system. The NBFIs have, inrecent years benefited from an environment of low interest rates coupled with high

economic growth, but have been unable to create an impact as well-functioning,specialized financial intermediaries. The success story among NBFIs is that of mutualfunds. The mutual fund sector is rapidly growing in Pakistan and accounted for thelargest chunk in total assets of non-bank financial sector. Between FY00 to FY 07, netassets of mutual funds have grown by more than 12 times to reach Rs313 billion fromRs25 billion only in FY 00.

Capital Markets

A strong economy requires a cutting-edge financial system that instills confidence andefficiently provides a wide range of financial services to households and businessesalike, and capital markets are an essential component of a strong financial system. A

diversified financial system is conducive to both financial stability and to efficientresource allocation in support of medium term economic growth. Pakistan, with itslarge consumer base, has enormous and attractive investment opportunities, and likeother developing countries, needs both local and foreign investment to support andsustain its economic growth.

Pakistans equity market has performed comparatively better in comparison to itsregional counterparts during the outgoing fiscal year 2007-08, albeit with a volatilepolitical scenario and fragile economic outlook. A large number of mergers andacquisitions were witnessed during the outgoing fiscal year, which is a healthy sign fora corporate assessment of the country. Two major banks (HBL and Arif Habib Bank)went public on the KSE via IPOs. The premier stock exchange index (KSE-100) broke thepsychological barrier of 15,500 points to close at 15,676 points on April 18, 2008. Thislevel has never been achieved in Pakistan before, portraying an attractive valuation of

the domestic equity market. The unprecedented events of November 3, December 27,February 18 and May 22 invited sharp corrections to the stock market. Nevertheless,the stock market was able to survive through these periods of tumult, which increasedthe confidence of the equity market investors, despite the overall market returnremaining notably lower than those in the past several years. LSE and ISE followed thefoot prints of the leading stock exchange in the country. Moreover, the sectoralperformance in the bourses remained impressive with banks and financial institutionsoutperforming the others.

Pakistans debt market has seen a consistent supply of long term governmentsecurities amounting to about Rs69 billion and the inflation-adjusted rise in depositrates of National Savings Schemes in 2007-08. Five new TFCs have been issued, mostlyby the financial sector in the same period, and a sophisticated derivative market hastaken off recently. The Pakistani investor base has observed phenomenal progress in

terms of size, liquidity and growth in recent years. Over time, the Non-Banking FinanceCompanies sector has demonstrated better performances. In particular, the leasing andinvestment finance sectors have shown impressive growth. The buoyant capital market


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provided vigour to the growth and development of mutual funds, which nearly doubledtheir asset holdings during last year. However, growth in the housing finance sector hasremained stagnant. It is also pertinent to note that the development of discount housesand venture capital companies remains at an initial stage. Real Estate Investment

Trusts, Private Equity and Venture Capital Funds are welcome additions this year.However, the credit rating industry still lags behind with only two companies currentlyinvolved in it. This has clearly hampered the development of sub-grade investment

bonds in the country though the credit quality remains high.

Capital market reforms initiated by the SECP promise far-reaching results in improvingthe financial markets of Pakistan although some key steps are still to be taken.However, the domestic capital markets need more aggressive reform actions andhence, a comprehensive set of recommendations has been laid out at the end of thechapter. Strong dedication and commitment by the government will lead to constantinnovation and a healthy development of the local capital markets.

Inflation

The inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) averaged at 10.3

percent during (July- April) 2007-08, as against 7.9 percent in the same period lastyear. Food price inflation is estimated at 15.0 percent compared to 10.2 percent in thesame period of last year. Non-food inflation increased to 6.8 percent versus 6.2 percentin the comparable period of last year. The core inflation (non-food, non-energy sector),increased little over last year increasing from 6.0 percent in 2006-07 to 7.5 percent inthe first ten months of the current fiscal year. The larger contribution towards theoverall CPI inflation comes from food inflation. Based on current trends, it is expectedthat the average inflation rate during 2007-08 will be over 10.5 percent.

Major factors contributing to the rise in inflationary pressures in the economy duringthe current year 2007-08 include the extremely high food and energy prices, which is infact a global problem. Food inflation was predominantly driven by unprecedented risein the prices of few items like wheat, rice and edible oil etc, owing to supply short-fall ofkey consumer items as well as the impact of the significant increase in their global

prices. The record high jump in oil prices lead to an increase in the cost of Pakistaniimports as well as aggravating food shortages across the world through the conversionof many crops from human consumption to fuel, which have also seriously spurred theworld-wide price level including those in Pakistan.

Inflation is an important determinant of the macroeconomic stability and thus attractedpolicy measures to contain it at tolerable level. The corrective measures includepursuing tight monetary policy by SBP to control money supply and credit expansion,easing supply by allowing imports of several essential items to augment domesticsupply, gearing reforms toward additional agricultural output and effective participationof the public sector distribution network (USC & TCP).

Trade and Payments

Pakistans exports were growing at 16 percent per annum on the back of strongmacroeconomic policies pursued at home and the hospitable international tradingenvironment the period (2002-03 to 2005-06). The impressive export performancebacktracked to dismal in 2006-07 when they hardly managed to grow at less than 4percent. Overall exports recorded a growth of 10.2 percent during the first ten months(July- April) of the current fiscal year against 3.6 percent in the same period of last year.In absolute terms, exports have increased from $13847.3 million to $15255.5 million inthe period. Although exports growth has remained far short of the average growth of 16percent achieved during 2002-03 to 2005-06, but it was satisfactory when viewed inthe backdrop of poor show last year.

Imports during the first ten months (July-April) of the current fiscal year (2007-08) grew

by 28.3 percent compared with the same period of last year, reaching to $32.06 billion.After growing at an average rate of 29 percent per annum during 2003-04, Pakistansimport growth slowed to a moderate level of 6.9 percent in the last fiscal year (2006-


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07). Imports growth exhibited a sharp pick up in 2007-08 on the back of an extra-ordinary surge in the imports of petroleum products, food and raw material. Non-oilimports were up by 22.5 percent and non-oil and non food imports spiked by 18.8percent during the first ten months (July- April) of the current fiscal year.

Imports of the petroleum group registered extraordinary growth of 47 percent andreached to $8670 million. The petroleum group accounts for 27 percent of total imports

but contributed 39 percent in the overall growth of imports for the year. The rise inimports of the petroleum group has been the fallout of extraordinary hike in crude oilprices in the international market, as well as the substantial increase in its quantityimported. The imports of raw material contributed almost 21 percent to this years risein import bill. This is followed by imports of food group which contributed 16 percent tothe overall imports growth. Imports of petroleum products and edible oil contributed 47percent to the additional import bill in FY 08. Additional 18.7 percent contribution camefrom the import of wheat and fertilizer. These four items accounted for two-thirds ofimports growth. Consumer durables contribution was negative (0.4 percent) mainly onaccount of decline in the import of road motor vehicles.

Pakistans current account deficit (CAD) widened to US$11.6 billion during Jul-Apr FY08against US$6.6 billion in the comparable period of last year, showing an increase of75.7 percent. Even when compared to the size of the economy, CAD was substantially

high at 6.8 percent of GDP during Jul-April FY08 as against 4.6 percent for the sameperiod last year. The deterioration of the current account deficit was mainly driven bysharp rise in the trade deficit along with an increase in net outflows from services andincome account. Services account deficit widened by 44.2 percent during Jul-April FY08to reach $5.6 billion. This deterioration was contributed by relatively high importgrowth and the decline in export of services. However, the strong growth in currenttransfers on the back of impressive growth in remittances almost entirely offset thedeficit in services and income account thereby leaving the trade deficit as thefundamental source of expansion in the current account deficit. The current transferswitnessed an impressive increase of 16.4 percent during Jul-April FY08 on the back ofstrong growth in both private and official transfers.

The Pak rupee, after remaining stable for more than four years, lost significant valueagainst the US dollar and depreciated by 6.4 percent during July-April 2008. The fall in

the value of the rupee is mainly attributed to rising oil prices in the internationalmarket, widening of current account deficit and the uncertain political situation in thecountry.

Workers remittances registered commendable growth during Jul-Apr FY08 by growingby 19.5 percent on top of 22.7 percent growth in the corresponding period of last year.Workers remittance totaled $5.3 billion in the first ten months of (Jul-April) of the fiscalyear as against $4.4 billion in the same period last year. Pakistans total foreignexchange reserves stood at $12,344 million as on end-April 2008, significantly lowerthan the end-June 2007 level of $15,646 million. Reserves peaked to $16,443 million atend Oct 2007, while they showed significant depletion of $4.1 billion during Nov-AprFY08. During Jul-Oct 2007, reserves improved by 5.1 percent due to the relatively lowercurrent account deficit and substantial inflows in the financial account. However,October onwards, net outflows from portfolio investment, and a steep rise in the

current account deficit led to a sharp decline in the foreign exchange reserves of thecountry.

External Debt

and Liabilities

Owing to the prudent debt reduction strategy and successive high growth rates,Pakistan has reduced its public debt burden (including Rupees debt and foreigncurrency debt) from 100.3 percent of GDP in end-FY99 to 53.5 percent of GDP by end-March FY08. The external debt component of public debt (excluding private non-guaranteed debt and liabilities) has decreased from 40.8 percent of GDP end-FY02 to

24.7 percent of GDP at end-March FY08.

External debt and liabilities (EDL) at the end of March FY08 stood at US$45.9 billion.


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This represents an increase of US$5.4 billion, indicating a 13.3 percent increase overthe stock at the end of FY07. Borrowing from multilateral and bilateral lenders accountsfor 80 percent of outstanding debt, and are mostly in the form of medium and longterm debt. The share of short term debt, on the other hand, is extremely low at 1.3percent. Pakistan took advantage of an earlier Paris Club rescheduling to re-profile itsdebt at a more manageable level. The external debt and liabilities (EDL) declined from51.0 percent of GDP at the end of FY02 to 26.9 percent of GDP by end-March 2008.

Similarly, the EDL were 236.8 percent of foreign exchange earnings, but declined to127.1 percent in the same period. The EDL were nearly 5.8 times foreign exchangereserves at the end of FY02, but declined to 3.4 by end March 2008. Interest paymentson external debt were 7.8 percent of current account receipts, but declined to 2.5percent during the same period. The maturity profile also showed an improvement overthe last five years as short-term debt was 1.4 percent of EDL, but declined modestly to1.3 percent of EDL in the same period. International capital markets have suffered oneof the most turbulent years in recent history. With the financial crisis instilling a senseof distrust amidst the market, access to financing has been restricted, with spreadswidening for both developed and emerging economies alike. Given the negativesentiment surrounding capital markets, and a domestic economy with substantialmacroeconomic imbalances and political uncertainty, Pakistan has not issued any newinstruments in FY08. However, the country is still pursuing a comprehensive externalborrowing strategy consistent with borrowing constraints such as the

saving/investment gap, amortization payments, keeping adequate reserves and mostimportantly the governments medium-term development priorities. The governmentplans to continue to tap the global capital markets, when conditions are morefavorable, through regular issuance of bonds (conventional and Islamic) to ensure asteady supply of Pakistans sovereign paper, establish a benchmark for Pakistan and tokeep Pakistan on the radar screen of global investors. This will keep spreads onPakistani paper low, give more borrowing options to Pakistani borrowers including thegovernment and ensure that Pakistan is covered by various investment researchproducts.

Education

Education is central to the socio-economic development of a country. It plays a vitalrole in building human capabilities and accelerates economic growth throughknowledge, skills and creative strength of a society. The positive outcomes of educationinclude reduction in poverty and inequality, improvement in health status and goodgovernance in implementation of socio-economic policies. The multifaceted impact ofeducation makes it an essential element for policy framework. Developing countries,where majority of the worlds population resides, need to redesign educational policiesfor promoting productivity in different sectors of the economy by developing highlyskilled manpower and addressing their development needs for rapid industrialization.

The government is making serious efforts to improve the quantity and quality ofeducation by enhancing educational facilities within the minimum possible time.National Textbook and Learning Materials Policy (2007) has been prepared to prop upthe quality of education at all levels through better quality textbooks at affordable

prices and other learning materials for promoting Pakistan as a knowledge basedsociety. National Curriculum Council (NCC) has prepared a comprehensive review ofschool curriculum to make it relevant to student needs.

Between two Population Census 1972 and 1981 literacy rate improved by 0.5 percentper annum. However, between 1981 and the 1998, Census revealed a growth rate of1.07 percent per annum in literacy. The adult literacy rate (10 years and above) rosefrom 26.2 percent to 43.9 percent in this period. In the current decade, Literacy Ratehas improved at a moderate pace. According to PSLM Survey data (2006-07), theoverall literacy rate (10 years & above) was 55 percent in 2006-07 compared to 45percent in PIHS (2001-02), indicating a 10 percentage points increase over a period ofonly six years. Males literacy rate increased from 58 percent in 2001 to 67 percent in2006-07, while it increased from 32 to 42 percent for females during the same period,highlighting the gender gaps that still persist in access to education. Province wise

literacy data (2006-07) show Punjab stood at 58 percent followed by Sindh (55percent), NWFP (47 percent) and Balochistan at 42 percent.


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According to PSLM Survey data (2006), the overall school attendance (age 10 years andabove) is 57 percent (69 percent for male and 44 percent for female) in 2006-07compared to 51 percent (66 percent for male and 36 percent for female) in PIHS (2001-02). Province-wise, school attendance data for 2006-07 as against 2001-02 showsPunjab to be on the top (60 percent Vs 54 percent) followed by Sindh (56 percent Vs 49percent), NWFP (50 percent Vs 45 percent), and Balochistan (39 percent Vs 37 percent)to be at the lowest level.

According to the Ministry of Education (2006-07), there are currently 231,289educational institutions in the country. The overall enrollment in these institutions isrecorded at 34.8 million with teaching staff of 1.307 million. Out of the total institutions,there are 50 percent primary schools, 16 percent middle, 10 percent high, 4.9 percentDeeni Madaris and 1.2 percent Vocational Institutions. About three-fourth of theinstitutions are in rural areas. About 67 percent of the educational institutions in thecountry are run publicly relative to only 33 percent in the private sector.

The government has established the National Vocational & Technical EducationCommission (NAVTEC) to facilitate, regulate, and provide policy direction for technicaleducation and vocational training to meet national and international demand for skilledmanpower. In view of spreading higher education to every area of Pakistan, over thepast three years, 17 new universities have been granted Charters, with the majority

opened in areas where higher education opportunities were previously unavailable. Topromote research and development (R&D) activities, the Higher Education Commission(HEC) has awarded 5,837 PhD scholarships (3,237 indigenous, 2,600 foreign) over thepast three years.

Health & Nutrition

Good health, defined in terms of a state of complete physical, mental and social wellbeing, is a prerequisite for a nation to be productive. The intrinsic importance of healthin social, economic and human development of individuals implies that poor health candirectly influence an individuals opportunities, his or her earning capacity, participationin community activities, and so on. The cohesive agenda of Millennium Development

Goals (MDGs) also reflects the important role of health in the form of specificmeasurable targets. Pakistan is also a signatory to the UN Millennium Declaration andis fully committed to extend the agenda of providing basic right of health to all of itscitizens. The Governments commitments regarding the health sector are spelled out inthe form of MDGs, PRSP, and MTDF.

A considerable improvement in health sector facilities over the past year is reflected inthe existing vast network of health care facilities, which consist of 4,755 dispensaries,5,349 basic health units/sub health centers (BHUs/SHCs), 562 rural health centers(RHCs), 945 hospitals, 903 maternal and child health centers (MCHs), and 290 TBcenters (TBCs). Available Human resource for fiscal year 2007-08 turns out to be127,859 doctors, 8,795 dentists and 62,651 nurses, which make the ratio of populationper doctor as 1,225, population per dentist as 19,121 and population per nurse as2,501. The new health facilities added to overall health services include the

construction of 56 new facilities (43 BHU and 13 RHCs), upgrading of 1,015 existingfacilities (65 RHCs and 950 BHUs) and addition of 4,500 new doctors, 3,350 nurses and400 dentists. The total outlay for the health sector is budgeted at Rs60 billion, whichshows an increase of 20 percent over the last year, and turns out to be 0.6 percent ofGDP. To reduce the incidence of disease and to alleviate peoples pains and sufferingsso as to improve their health status, various health programs remained operativeduring fiscal year 2007-08. These include the national programs for the prevention andcontrol of tuberculosis, malaria, HIV/AIDS, hepatitis, blindness and the program onmaternal, neonatal and child health etc. During the fiscal year 2007-08 the caloricavailability per day is likely to increase from 2,466 to 2,529.

Population, Workforce and Employment

Pakistan, with a population of 160.9 million in mid-2008, is the 6th most populouscountry in t

21607108 PEST Analysis Raw

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