2/13/2014 1 Engineering & Technology Management Group What will Society look like in 2025 ? Tim...

04/10/23 1Engineering & Technology Management Group

What will Society look like in 2025 ?

Tim Howard

Society & Aerospace TC

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Technology

ManagementTracking the Constant of Change

SystemsEngineering

ManagementHistory

Society Legal Aspects

Economics

LogisticsSupply Chain

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TechnicalInformation

MultidisciplineDesign

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12/1/2005 Engineering & Technology Management Group

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Observations on Workforce 2025

• Workforce available to the industry in 2025 is being formed as we speak

– The 2005 mid-level members (most of us here) are the 2025 retirees or senior executives

– The college seniors of the Class of 2005 are the 2025 mid-level members (our replacements)

– The 2005 first-graders are the college seniors of 2020 – the “entry level” workforce in 2025

• Will they choose aerospace?

– The children born in 2005 are the college sophomores in 2025, looking to commit to their major field of study

• Will they have the option to choose aerospace?

• Compare society today and in 2025 – What will society need?


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The World in 2025

00 5010 20 3025 40

20056 billion people (1999); China & India largest80% lives in Less Developed regions (60% in Asia)Urbanization crosses 50% (2007)Median age 26 years; Life expectancy ~65AIDS is taking a toll in Sub-Saharan Africa60+ 10%; 20% in Developed Countries80+ is 22% of 65+ populationUS population is ~290 million80% in metropolitan areas (50% in suburban areas) in 2000Majority in South or WestMedian age is 35 years; largest age group is 40-50 (baby boomers)Life expectancy is 7765+ 13%; 80+ 22% of 65+ population

20258 billion people (2028); China & India still the largest (still 60% in Asia)Africa on the rise (20% in 2050)~85% in Less Developed regions; 90% by 2050Urbanization reaches 61% by 2030; 81% in MDC, 57% in LDC, 50% in Asian urban areasMedian age is 37 years; Life expectancy is ~7060+ ~16%; ~27% in Developed Countries80+ is 50% of 65+ population (2030)US population is ~340 millionMedian age 38 years; baby boomers are into 70sLife expectancy is ~8565+ is 18%

“the twenty-first century is expected to be one of comparatively slower population growth than the previous century, and be characterized by declining fertility and the ageing of populations”

United Nations: The World at Six Billion, 1999


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10 Most Populous Countries, 1950 - 2050Rank 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

1 China 562,579,779 China 917,898,537 China 1,261,832,482 China 1,464,028,860 India 1,619,582,2712 India 369,880,000 India 621,911,145 India 1,014,003,817 India 1,377,264,176 China 1,470,468,9243 U.S.A. 152,271,000 U.S.A. 215,973,000 U.S.A. 275,562,673 U.S.A. 338,070,951 U.S.A. 403,943,1474 Russia 101,936,816 Indonesia 137,500,187 Indonesia 224,784,210 Indonesia 301,461,556 Indonesia 337,807,0115 Japan 83,805,000 Russia 134,293,372 Brazil 172,860,370 Pakistan 213,338,252 Nigeria 303,586,7706 Indonesia 83,413,921 Japan 111,573,116 Russia 146,001,176 Nigeria 204,453,333 Pakistan 267,813,4957 Germany 68,374,572 Brazil 108,813,350 Pakistan 141,553,775 Brazil 200,606,553 Brazil 206,751,4778 Brazil 53,443,075 Germany 78,682,325 Bangladesh 129,194,224 Bangladesh 177,499,122 Bangladesh 205,093,8619 United Kingdom 50,127,000 Bangladesh 76,253,310 Japan 126,549,976 Russia 135,951,626 Ethiopia 187,892,174

10 Italy 47,105,000 Pakistan 74,711,541 Nigeria 123,337,822 Mexico 133,834,712 Congo (Kinshasa) 181,922,656Total 1,572,936,163 2,340,109,696 3,615,680,525 4,546,509,141 5,184,861,786

World Total 2,555,078,074 4,088,224,047 6,080,141,683 7,840,660,355 9,104,205,830% of World Total 62% 57% 59% 58% 57%

• Asia dominates list through 2050; population starts shifting to Africa in 2030; 20% by 2050; 25% by 2100

• Urbanization reaches 50% in 2007; most urban areas <500K

• 22 Megacities, 39 5M cities in 2015

• Africa is the emerging market; also the emerging area of security concern

• Security issues– Population Density– Resource scarcity– Ethnic conflict– Urban combat

• Asia dominates list through 2050; population starts shifting to Africa in 2030; 20% by 2050; 25% by 2100

• Urbanization reaches 50% in 2007; most urban areas <500K

• 22 Megacities, 39 5M cities in 2015

• Africa is the emerging market; also the emerging area of security concern

• Security issues– Population Density– Resource scarcity– Ethnic conflict– Urban combat

Sources: UN Population DataInstitute for Memetic Research

1950 1975 2003 2015Rank Urban Area Population Rank Urban Area Population Rank Urban Area Population Rank Urban Area Population

1 New York - Newark 12.3 1 Tokyo 26.6 1 Tokyo 35.0 1 Tokyo 36.22 Tokyo 11.3 2 New York - Newark 15.9 2 Mexico City 18.7 2 Mumbai (Bombay) 22.6

3 Shanghai 11.4 3 New York - Newark 18.3 3 Delhi 20.94 Mexico City 10.7 4 Sao Paulo 17.9 4 Mexico City 20.6

5 Mumbai (Bombay) 17.4 5 Sao Paulo 20.06 Delhi 14.1 6 New York - Newark 19.77 Calcutta 13.8 7 Dhaka, Bangladesh 17.98 Buenos Aires 13.0 8 Jakarta 17.59 Shanghai 12.8 9 Lagos, Nigeria 17.0

10 Jakarta 12.3 10 Calcutta 16.811LA-Long Beach-Santa Ana 12.0 11 Karachi 16.212 Dhaka, Bangladesh 11.6 12 Buenos Aires 14.613 Osaka-Kobe, Japan 11.2 13 Cairo 13.114 Rio de Janeiro 11.2 14LA-Long Beach-Santa Ana 12.915 Karachi 11.1 15 Shanghai 12.716 Beijing 10.8 16 Metro Manila, Phil 12.617 Cairo 10.8 17 Rio de Janeiro 12.418 Moscow 10.5 18 Osaka-Kobe, Japan 11.419 Metro Manila, Phil 10.4 19 Istanbul 11.320 Lagos, Nigeria 10.1 20 Beijing 11.1

21 Moscow 10.922 Paris 10.0


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Population Ageing

• Population age increases; and number of children born declines

• Workforce replacement slows in MDC; more seniors relying on smaller workforce for economic benefits (Social Security, etc)

• US - ~6 million immigrants 2025 timeframe offsets some of the decline

• Population age increases; and number of children born declines

• Workforce replacement slows in MDC; more seniors relying on smaller workforce for economic benefits (Social Security, etc)



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US Population

• Top 5 - CA; TX; NY; FL; IL; DC #50; Wyoming #51 in 2000• Male/Female 48%/51%; 2000 & 2025• 2025: White 78%; Black 14%; Hispanic 18% (double 2000)• Does our workforce match our diversity?

• Top 5 - CA; TX; NY; FL; IL; DC #50; Wyoming #51 in 2000• Male/Female 48%/51%; 2000 & 2025• 2025: White 78%; Black 14%; Hispanic 18% (double 2000)• Does our workforce match our diversity?


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US Population Ageing

• Population age increases• 5-9 age group stays consistent

around 6%• 40-45 age group drops from 7.8%

to 6% • 65+ doubles• Workforce replacement slows;

more seniors relying on smaller workforce for economic benefits (Social Security, etc)


• Population age increases• 5-9 age group stays consistent

around 6%• 40-45 age group drops from 7.8%

to 6% • 65+ doubles• Workforce replacement slows;

more seniors relying on smaller workforce for economic benefits (Social Security, etc)



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What will Society Need from Aerospace in 2025?

• Air Transportation to serve urban areas with populations <500K– Environmentally sound – noise and pollution decrease– Cost-effective – fuel efficiency, #passengers per plane

• Satellites to monitor Earth resources & Earth conditions– Resource (Food& Water) Security– Natural Event Security; Climate security

• ComSats and other telecom systems to extend information access• Power/energy generation technologies to support demand• ITAR issues will need to be addressed in light of probable need to

outsource/offshore some activities, and the expected influx of immigrants• Technology magnet programs in areas not presently served by aerospace to build

interest among today’s first-graders• Asteroid monitoring for planetary defense• Is space passenger travel/tourism still a fringe industry?

– Will need to develop space habitats and off-world permanent living areas to relieve population

• Non-lethal weapons for urban combat


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“Will they choose aerospace?”

• NY Times article – science and math scores low among our “competitor” nations

• Aerospace commission report – Need motivating vision to attract/retain talent – Is the Vision for Space enough?

• Can not teach students, if don’t have teachers interested in science and math topics, and able to teach them

• Interesting note: National Geography Bee won by home-schooled students– What are we missing from our public schools that parents feel compelled

to home-school, or move to private school?• Diversity of workforce

– 75% white, 51% women, 14% black; 18% Hispanic in 2025– Look around the room – do we mirror our customer base?– Do we have programs to help minority children become aerospace

professionals?• Evaluate the ROI – what is the cost to establish education & professional

development programs to attract young talent/retain mid-level talent?– What is the cost to do nothing?– Do we need to change our immigration concepts, and our ITAR

concepts? Do we increase offshoring, or bring in more foreign workers?


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2/13/2014 1 Engineering & Technology Management Group What will Society look like in 2025 ? Tim...

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