21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch1 People & the Planet by John Sulston FRS April 2012 A...

21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 1

People & the Planetby John Sulston FRS

April 2012

A brief review by Richard Vernon21st September 2012


Report background

Sir John Sulston FRS was assisted by a working group of 22 experts in the same or related fields.

The report was reviewed by an independent panel of 8 experts before being published by the Royal Society in April 2012


Tips to access ‘People & Planet’

• Printed version available from Royal Society• has good Contents page but no index, so:

• Download electronic version from• http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Soci

ety_Content/policy/projects/people-planet/2012-04-25-PeoplePlanet.pdf

One can then ‘search’ in lieu of index


Some conventions

Least Developed Countries48 countries mostly in Africa & Asia, with low per capita income & human assets

Less Developed CountriesOthers in Africa & Asia + some in L. America, Caribbean, Pacific Islands.

More Developed CountriesEurope, N America, Australia, New Zealand & Japan


3 Key Challenges

• raise world’s 1.3 billion poorest out of extreme poverty

• reduce consumption of the most developed and emerging economies

• slow global population growth


1st Challenge: 1.3 billion poorest out of extreme poverty

• In 2000 World leaders commited to Millenium Development Goals

– 1st of which was to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

• Critical to reducing global inequalities• Needs increased per capita consumption for this

group– for improved nutrition & health care

• Needs reduced family size where currently highp.7, 13


2nd Challenge: reduce consumption by the rest of us

• Current levels unsustainable

• Requires radical change of society & current economic models

• Requires politicians to effect this

• Requires us to drive change at political level

p. 11, Chap 3.


3rd Challenge: slow global population growthPolicy interventions can impact through

investment in:• education, especially for females where

currently excluded• health care including family planning

services• trade policies to encourage local

entreprenurial activitiesSection 5.4 – p. 91...


Demographic basics

Sulston describes:Total fertility rate (TFR)Demographic transitionReplacement fertilityYouth dependency ratioOld age dependency ratio

Total dependency ratioDemogrpahic dividendDemographic deficitDemographic momentumDemographic inertia

See page 17 for a brief explanation of these terms


Key Demographic componentsthat affect population size & composition

Migration (international) Fertility Mortality

Demographic Transition shift from high mortality and high fertility

to low mortality and low fertility p15

increase in proportion of old peoplep. 21 et seq.


Migration

• most dynamic population change factor in destination countries

• increasing: 1990: 156m

2010: 214m (+38%)

• driven mostly by economic change

• refugees are only c. 8% (2010) (– was 12% in 1990)

p. 26, 103


Migration: pros & cons

Origin country Destination country

+

• remittances $125billion(cf $60b ODA) - 2004• return with new skills

• meet labour & skills shortages• enhance investment, trade, international relations

- • brain drain• social costs

• displace workers• demands on housing, services

p. 36


Fertility• Source of the greatest effect on future population size

• ‘More Developed Cntrs’: mostly < 2.1 Replacement level

• ‘Least Developed Cntrs’: high fertility rates, > 4.2, – population projected to x2 in next 40 years

• Fertility levels declining everywhere but:due to the Demographic Momentum - see next slide, p16

populations will go on rising for decades p45

due to large proportion of people of child-bearing age

eg Niger p38 Ghana – see next slide.

p. 30. Recommendation 3.


Fertility: Demographic Momentum

2010: Ghana population c. 20 million fertility rate of 4 births per woman.

If by 2020 fertility declines to replacement level

Then in 2060: population would stabilise at c. 40 million.

p. 21


Mortality

• declined faster than fertility in most Less and Least Developed Countries

• and especially in infant & child mortalitySo these are seeing :• increase in mothers of child bearing age

and• greatest population increases

p18, 28


Other issues raised: Age structure

• rate of ageing & the number of old people in the population are unprecedented in human history.

• Globally, over 65s:

– big variations between More, Less & Least DCsp.26

1950 5%

2010 9%

2050 20%


Other issues raised: Urbanisation• the increase in proportion of population

living in urban areas• a global phenomonen, but much faster in

the More Developed Countries

p28, 34

Least DCs

Less DCs

MoreDCs

Global

1950 29 %

2005 27 % 46 % 74 % 49 %

(2050) (69 %)


Urbanisation effects

+ can reduce material consumption + can reduce environmental impact

through efficiency delivery of services rapid urbanisation risk of slum conditions

– needs well planned provision of water supply, waste disposal, power and other services

See Recommendation 5


Other issues: Gross Domestic Product

• GDP most widely used indicator of a country’s prosperity but – a poor indicator of degree to which human needs

are met– ignores depletion of natural capital: agricultural

land, forests, watersheds, fisheries, fresh water etc– becomes a driver of consumption instead of saving

p. 13, 58, 87


3 challenges 9 recommendations

1. poverty2. consumption3. fertility4. planning5. urbanisation

6. education7. research8. wealth

management9. inter-

governmental collaboration

p. 9. Chapter 6


So what can I do?

1.2.3.

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