BRS SEMINAR SERIES TOGETHER WITH THE MURRAY-DARLING BASIN COMMISSION PRESENT:

A SPECIAL BRS SEMINAR Tuesday 21 March

Water: a crucial factor for sustainable futures

Professor Ian Lowe AO, ACF President

Water is essential for life; not just for humans, but for plants and animals. We are not using either the surface water or the

groundwater of the Earth sustainably at present. Our misuse of water is a significant contributor to the major extinction event now

occurring. For both ecological and economic reasons, we need to change the pattern of supply and use of water. This is necessary for

us to achieve the goal of a sustainable future.

Water: a crucial Water: a crucial factor for sustainable factor for sustainable

futuresfutures

Ian LoweIan Lowe22 March, 200622 March, 2006

The fundamental premisesThe fundamental premises

Future not somewhere we are Future not somewhere we are going, but something we are going, but something we are creatingcreating

There are many possible futuresThere are many possible futures

We should be trying to shape a We should be trying to shape a future that can be sustained future that can be sustained

The bottom lineThe bottom line

WATER IS WATER IS CRUCIAL TO ANY CRUCIAL TO ANY SUSTAINABLE SUSTAINABLE FUTUREFUTURE

How could we create How could we create unsustainable unsustainable futures ?futures ?

Exponential population growthExponential population growthGrowing consumption per personGrowing consumption per personBase economy on consumptionBase economy on consumptionDeplete mineral resources, e.g. OilDeplete mineral resources, e.g. OilOverOver--use fisheries, forests, wateruse fisheries, forests, waterDisrupt the global climateDisrupt the global climateWiden inequalityWiden inequalityEmbrace crass materialism Embrace crass materialism

““Our present course Our present course is unsustainable is unsustainable --postponing action is postponing action is no longer an optionno longer an option””

-- GEO 2000 [UNEP 1999]GEO 2000 [UNEP 1999]

World since 1960World since 1960Population doubledPopulation doubledWater use doubledWater use doubledFood production x 2.5Food production x 2.5Energy use trebledEnergy use trebledEconomic output x 6Economic output x 6

Oil, gas resourcesOil, gas resourcesOil peak 2009 _+ 6 years ?Oil peak 2009 _+ 6 years ?

Gas peak ~ 2040 ?Gas peak ~ 2040 ?

[ no [ no energyenergy shortage ]shortage ]

Other resource issuesOther resource issuesWaterWater

Productive landProductive land

ForestsForests

FisheriesFisheries

Now use half available water but >1 billion don’t have clean water

Being lost to urban expansion and unsustainable past use

Declining and disappearing as population pressure increases

At maximum sustainable use or in decline

Millennium Assessment Millennium Assessment ReportReport

Released MarchReleased March

Experts and Review ProcessExperts and Review ProcessPrepared by 1360 experts from 95 countriesPrepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries8080--person independent board of review editorsperson independent board of review editorsReviewed by 850 experts and governmentsReviewed by 850 experts and governments

GovernanceGovernanceCalled for by UN Secretary General in 2000Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000AuthorisedAuthorised by governments through 4 conventions by governments through 4 conventions

Finding #1Finding #1

Over the past 50 years, humans have Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable extensively than in any comparable period of time in human historyperiod of time in human history

This has resulted in a substantial and This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earthof life on Earth

Millennium Assessment Report 2005

Unprecedented change: ecosystemsUnprecedented change: ecosystems

More land converted to cropland since More land converted to cropland since 1945 than in 18th and 19th centuries 1945 than in 18th and 19th centuries combinedcombined20% of world20% of world’’s coral reefs lost and s coral reefs lost and 20% degraded in last few decades20% degraded in last few decades35% of mangrove area lost in last 35% of mangrove area lost in last few decadesfew decadesWater in reservoirs quadrupled since Water in reservoirs quadrupled since 19601960Water from rivers and lakes doubledWater from rivers and lakes doubled

Millennium Assessment Report 2005Millennium Assessment Report 2005

Unprecedented change: biogeochemical cyclesUnprecedented change: biogeochemical cyclesSince 1960:Since 1960:

Flows of biologically available nitrogen in Flows of biologically available nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems doubledterrestrial ecosystems doubledFlows of phosphorus tripledFlows of phosphorus tripled

> > 50% of all synthetic nitrogen 50% of all synthetic nitrogen fertiliserfertiliserever used has been used since 1985ever used has been used since 1985

Humans now produce as much biologically available N as all natural pathways. This may grow a further 65 per cent by 2050

Significant and largely irreversible Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversitychanges to species diversity

Humans have increased the species Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the over background rates typical over the planetplanet’’s history s history

1010––30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian 30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with species are currently threatened with extinctionextinction

Millennium Assessment Report 2005

Millennium Assessment Report 2005

Finding #2Finding #2Changes to ecosystems have contributed to Changes to ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in human wellsubstantial net gains in human well--being being Since 1960, population doubled, economic activity Since 1960, population doubled, economic activity increased 6increased 6--fold, food production increased 2 fold, food production increased 2 ½½times, food prices declined, times, food prices declined, water use doubledwater use doubled……

The gains have been at growing costs. The gains have been at growing costs.

Millennium AssessMillennium Assessment Report 2005ment Report 2005

Water is essential forWater is essential forHuman healthHuman healthHygieneHygiene

Food productionFood production

Most manufacturingMost manufacturing

BiosphereBiosphere

Water needed for basicsWater needed for basics

1000 1000 litreslitres for 1 kg wheatfor 1 kg wheat2000 2000 litreslitres for 1 for 1 litrelitre milkmilk3000 3000 litreslitres for 1 kg sugarfor 1 kg sugar5000 5000 litreslitres for 1 kg ricefor 1 kg rice5000 5000 litreslitres for 1 kg cheesefor 1 kg cheese7000 7000 litreslitres for one cotton teefor one cotton tee--shirtshirt11000 11000 litreslitres for one hamburgerfor one hamburger20,000 20,000 litreslitres for 1 kg coffeefor 1 kg coffee

Your morning Your morning cuppacuppa

One teaspoon of sugar in your One teaspoon of sugar in your cup of coffee took 50 cups of cup of coffee took 50 cups of water to produce water to produce

The coffee required 140 The coffee required 140 litreslitres, or , or more than 1000 cups, of water !more than 1000 cups, of water !

The new complication: The new complication: global climate changeglobal climate change

Earth is overheating

Global warming is affecting Australia today

The MurrayThe Murray““vegetation change, increases in farm vegetation change, increases in farm dams, increased groundwater use and dams, increased groundwater use and climate change could reduce the flow in climate change could reduce the flow in the river Murray by 2000 GL/year by the river Murray by 2000 GL/year by 20252025””

-- Dr Richard Davis, LWADr Richard Davis, LWA

[Living Murray proposes returning 500 GL][Living Murray proposes returning 500 GL]

Increased likelihood of Increased likelihood of nonnon--linear changeslinear changes

established but incompleteestablished but incomplete evidence evidence that our impacts on ecosystems are that our impacts on ecosystems are increasing the likelihood of nonincreasing the likelihood of non--linear linear changes changes …… with important with important consequences for human well consequences for human well -- beingbeing

Millennium Assessment Report 2005

An example of nonAn example of non--linear changelinear change

Millennium Assessment Report 2005

EckersleyEckersley’’ss schemaschemaApocalyptic nihilismApocalyptic nihilism: abandonment of belief : abandonment of belief –– thinking thinking and acting as though nothing much matters any and acting as though nothing much matters any more; more; decadence rulesdecadence rules..

Apocalyptic fundamentalismApocalyptic fundamentalism: retreat to certain belief : retreat to certain belief ––in the extreme, in the extreme, ‘‘end timeend time’’ thinking, where global thinking, where global warming and even nuclear war are embraced as warming and even nuclear war are embraced as signs of the end of civilisation; signs of the end of civilisation; dogma rulesdogma rules..

Apocalyptic activismApocalyptic activism: transformation of belief : transformation of belief –– the the desire to create a new conceptual framework or desire to create a new conceptual framework or system (stories, values, beliefs) that will make a system (stories, values, beliefs) that will make a sustainable future possible; sustainable future possible; hope ruleshope rules..

The Knowledge BaseThe Knowledge BaseMuch damage done by applying narrow Much damage done by applying narrow knowledge to part of the systemknowledge to part of the system

Develop a much better understanding of Develop a much better understanding of complex natural systems, including links complex natural systems, including links between local and global processesbetween local and global processes

Use this improved understanding to reduce Use this improved understanding to reduce the impacts of human activities on the the impacts of human activities on the natural worldnatural world

Sustainability ScienceSustainability ScienceExplicitly recognises our ignorance of Explicitly recognises our ignorance of complex selfcomplex self--organising systemsorganising systemsWorks at multiple scales of Works at multiple scales of organisationorganisationKnowledge provisional, subjectiveKnowledge provisional, subjectiveIncludes social, ecological Includes social, ecological characteristics of place or regioncharacteristics of place or regionRequires new styles of organisationRequires new styles of organisationPromotes social learningPromotes social learning

Some specific approachesSome specific approachesMore effective use of waterMore effective use of waterCSIRO CSIRO estest: 100: 100--125 GL lost to seepage and 125 GL lost to seepage and evapnevapn off farmsoff farms in in MurrumbidgeeMurrumbidgee irrigationirrigation

Direct water to higher value usesDirect water to higher value usesVegetables, fruit, grapes > $1500/MLVegetables, fruit, grapes > $1500/MLSheep, beef < $100, dairy, rice ~ $200Sheep, beef < $100, dairy, rice ~ $200

Restore Restore riverineriverine ecological systemsecological systems

The MurrayThe Murray--Darling systemDarling system

Heartening results of Heartening results of BarmahBarmah--MillewaMillewaEfficiency improvements expected to Efficiency improvements expected to save about 300 GL by 2009save about 300 GL by 2009Market mechanisms should be used Market mechanisms should be used to obtain more water from irrigators to obtain more water from irrigators and farmers willing to selland farmers willing to sellIf Snowy Hydro sold off, the windfall If Snowy Hydro sold off, the windfall should be invested in river healthshould be invested in river health~ 50% irrigation water still used for ~ 50% irrigation water still used for pasturepasture……

Land irrigated for dairy Land irrigated for dairy greater than the sum of greater than the sum of fruit and tree nuts, grapes, fruit and tree nuts, grapes, rice, sheep, vegetables, rice, sheep, vegetables, hay, legumes and oil hay, legumes and oil seeds combinedseeds combined……

The underlying driversThe underlying drivers

Population growthPopulation growth

Consumption per personConsumption per person

Societal valuesSocietal values

New suite of valuesNew suite of valuesDomination of nature becomes Domination of nature becomes ecological sensitivityecological sensitivity

Consumerism replaced by Consumerism replaced by quality of lifequality of life

Individualism Individualism --> > human solidarityhuman solidarity

S O C I E TY E N V I R T

E C O N O M Y

Markets give us Markets give us things many of us things many of us

wantwant

Natural systems give us Natural systems give us things we all really needthings we all really need

S O C I E T Y

E C O N O M Y

E C O L O G Y

ConclusionConclusionOur decisions shape the futureOur decisions shape the futureAim: a sustainable future Aim: a sustainable future Many dimensions: resources, Many dimensions: resources, economic, social, environmental, economic, social, environmental, health, cultural, spiritualhealth, cultural, spiritual……A better party !A better party !Our moral responsibility to other Our moral responsibility to other species and to future generationsspecies and to future generations