2009 STRATFOR 1

Aug. 7, 2009

ROMANIA: EXECUTIVE BRIEFING Executive Summary This executive briefing on Romania provides an overview of Romania's current geopolitical, economic, political and security situation. A member of NATO and the European Union, Romania is nevertheless plagued by a high level of the organized crime endemic to the Balkans, and especially the Black Sea region. Such activities have included human smuggling, of which Romania is a significant nexus. Organized criminal elements are also known to have links to members of the Romania government; just last February, the European Union warned Romania of funding cuts due to the Balkan country's widespread corruption. Overall, organized crime is the most serious political and security concern the country faces. Geopolitical Overview After the Soviet retreat from Central Europe in 1990 and the collapse of Yugoslavia (1991-1999), Romania emerged as a regional heavyweight in the Balkans. Its population of more than 21 million makes it twice as large as Hungary (the next largest country in the region), and dwarfs its immediate neighbors Bulgaria and the states that emerged from Yugoslavia. Its gross domestic product (GDP) is the highest among its immediate neighbors, and is only surpassed in the Balkans by Greece. Romania is strategically located at the southern portions of the Carpathian Mountains, the traditional geographic buffer against Russian expansion into Southern Europe. Much of Romania's population is concentrated on the Walachian Plain just south of the Carpathians, the only southern gap in the Carpathian barrier. This fertile plain enjoys a strong transportation link to the rest of Europe in the form of the Danube River. The Walachian Plain, where Bucharest is located, is also a key artery of commerce and communications between Russian-dominated Ukraine and the Balkans. Traditionally, the land comprising modern Romania has been an arena for conflict between Turkey and Russia, both of which have (and continue) to seek influence in the region to gain control of the Black Sea and the Balkans.

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Because of Romania's strategic location, it has been rushed into both NATO and the European Union (in 2004 and 2007, respectively). This decision was motivated by the U.S. and European desire to seal off the troubled Western Balkans from Russian influence, which meant drawing the Walachian Plain into the EU and NATO fold as soon as possible. Washington in particular has forged a close alliance with Romania, both because of the Balkan country's command of the Carpathians and because its air bases offer the United States a far reach via the mainstay of the U.S. air transportation force, the C-17 Globemaster III. With the C-17's range of 2,765 miles, the United States can reach as far as the Arabian Peninsula, Iran and even western China from Romania. The United States also operates so called "lily pad" bases in Romania, bases that house pre-positioned equipment and can be ramped up into a proper base in times of crisis.

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Romania's key security concerns include Russian influence in neighboring Moldova and Ukraine, as well as Romania's Hungarian minority, which is concentrated mainly in Transylvania. Romania's Hungarian minority is not united enough at present to push for greater autonomy, but remains a long-term strategic concern for Romania. Romania's population is overwhelmingly Eastern Orthodox (the Romanian Orthodox Church to some extent thus culturally orients Romania toward Eastern Europe), but the population is linguistically -- and to an extent ethnically -- Western-oriented. As a Romance language, Romanian is much more closely related to French, Italian and Spanish than it is to Serbian, Bulgarian or any other neighboring Slavic language. As such, Romania sticks out as a Latin pocket in a sea of Slavs and Hungarians. Therefore, despite its size and economic heft, regional perceptions of Romania as something of an outsider have stymied Bucharest's efforts to rally the region under its leadership.

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Political Situation Domestic Romania is a semipresidential republic, with its government modeled after the French Constitution, where the president and prime minister share executive power, but the president is often more active. The Romanian president can serve no more than two five-year terms. Former Bucharest Mayor Traian Basescu is the current Romanian president. Though he ran on an anti-corruption platform, impeachment proceedings were initiated against Basescu in 2007 for allegedly unconstitutional conduct -- in this case, pressuring the Justice Ministry to drop cases against corrupt government officials. He avoided impeachment by winning a popular referendum on the question in late 2007. Basescu is nominally non-partisan, but unofficially associated with the Democratic Liberal Party, a center-right, liberal party. Romania is currently entering presidential election season, with elections set for November. Basescu (elected to his first term in 2004) leads the latest polls, but it is not yet certain he will indeed stand for a second term. Possible challengers to Basescu include Bucharest Mayor Sorin Oprescu, left-wing Social Democratic Party leader Mircea Geoana and centrist National Liberal Party leader Crin Antonescu. Basescu remains embroiled in a number of scandals. One of them involves his daughter, Elena, who campaigned for a seat in the European Parliament. Elena Basescu apparently collaborated closely with Youth and Sports Monica Minister Iacob Ridzi, who is said to have stolen 1 million euros ($1.4 million) and to have funded part of Elena Basescu's parliamentary run. Though whether he contributed to Elena Basescu's campaign was never established, Ritzi was forced to resign for embezzlement. Basescu is also under heat because his alleged mistress, Tourism Minister Elena Udrea (the wife of an influential businessman) is also suspected of embezzling millions of euros. As the Romanian public enjoys following scandals, it is not entirely clear that such matters would hurt the popularity of the politicians in question. Despite Romanian's enjoyment of scandal, outsiders should avoid discussions with locals about corruption -- it is one thing for Romanians to chat about, but quite another for foreigners to indicate disdain for rampant corruption to natives. Adopting a blas attitude about political chaos probably represents the best course for foreigners. Foreigners also should avoid any conversations with locals regarding the Roma population. As in neighboring Hungary, the Roma (aka Gypsies, or Tsigani or Tigani in Romanian) face extensive discrimination. Foreigners should avoid commenting on anti-Romany sentiment, as such discrimination is widespread, accepted and even expected. Foreign Policy Basescu's presidency has been marked by a highly active foreign policy. The Romanian president is known for his very pro-EU and pro-U.S. stance. (Moscow is said to have supported the 2007 impeachment effort against him.) During Basescu's time in office, Romania has strengthened its relationship with the United States, particularly its military cooperation. But Basescu's close relationship with former U.S. President George W. Bush does not seem to have extended to the current administration. Relations between Bucharest and the Obama administration are said to be a bit colder, something underscored by Basescu's skipping the July 4 festivities at the U.S. Embassy in Bucharest. (Basescu's advisers said the president did not attend because the United States had not yet named a new ambassador to

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Romania.) Nonetheless, the U.S. and Romanian relationship is founded on Romania's strategic importance to the United States -- and will not seriously be threatened by any potential disdain that Basescu may feel toward the new U.S. administration. Under Basescu, Romania has taken an aggressive stance toward neighboring Moldova. Moldovans and Romanians speak essentially the same language, and share many other cultural affinities. In contrast to Romania, however, Moldova is ruled by a pro-Russian government (and Russian troops are stationed in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria). Basescu has attempted to change Romanian laws that would permit up to a third of all Moldovans to hold Romanian passports. And during April election unrest in Moldova, Romanian secret service agents actively supported pro-democracy elements in Moldova in their struggle against the incumbent pro-Moscow government. The crisis surrounding the April Moldovan elections has strained Russian-Romanian relations. Unlike most of its Central and Eastern European neighbors, Romania does not depend on Russian energy for most of its consumption. Only about a quarter of its overall natural gas consumption comes from Russian imports, with an annual domestic production of 11.6 billion cubic meters satisfying the rest of its demand. This gives Romania considerable room to maneuver when it comes to confronting Russian interests in the region. Unlike neighboring Bulgaria and Ukraine, Romania is not at the mercy of the Russian natural gas tap. Economy The global recession has hit the Romanian economy hard, with expected 2009 economic contraction standing at worse than 5 percent of GDP. Unemployment is expected to rise to 7.3 percent from just 4 percent in 2008, and the government's austerity measures are increasing the risk for labor strikes and protests. The Public Sector Employees' Federation has issued a protest warning after Basescu urged a 20 percent reduction of the public sector through layoffs rather than salary cuts. A date for protests was not provided; instead, the group said it would rally if Basescu's warnings become reality. Although sources in Romania do not foresee protests in August, they could occur. If so, all public gatherings and downtown city squares should be avoided, and alternate routes between lodgings and meetings should be determined in advance. The Romanian economy's fundamental problem is its dependence on both foreign capital and imports. This combination has created an enormous private sector external debt burden of $82.7 billion, or roughly 50 percent of GDP. Of this total, $47.3 billion will come due in 2009, representing 118 percent of the country's total currency reserves. While the private sector debt burden was increasing, the country's trade imbalance ballooned to 14 percent of GDP. The recession and slumping demand for expensive foreign imports should correct the trade imbalance, but the large debt burden will remain an issue. Another challenging aspect of Romania's debt burden is its denomination in foreign currency. Foreign currency lending has been very popular in Central Europe, with low-interest rate euro borrowing replacing much of domestic currency borrowing. Foreign currency lending represents 58 percent of total lending in Romania, with both households and corporations highly involved. Exposure to foreign currency, however, means that the depreciating leu (the Romanian currency) causes the real

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value of foreign loans to appreciate. To counter the leu's slide and therefore prevent potential cascading defaults throughout the financial system, Bucharest has sought to defend the leu; it shored up its currency reserves through a 20 billion euro ($28 billion) International Monetary Fund loan in March alone.

The key question for Romania is whether it can revive its sluggish economy at the same time it is defending the leu. A weak leu could spur exports, and lowering the interest rates could prompt domestic borrowing. Bucharest is stuck between a rock and a hard place, however. It cannot lower the interest rates for fear it will precipitate investor flight away from the leu -- meaning any strategy that threatens leu's stability is out of the question. Security Situation The security concerns that apply to all of the Balkans apply in Romania, particularly with regard to the prevalence of organized crime. Organized crime runs many of the casinos, hotels, strip bars, clubs and restaurants throughout the country; even elegant establishments are under the control of organized crime. That said, it is not in the interest of organized crime to create security issues around their establishment, which means that for the most part security concerns at these establishments are minimal. Furthermore, Romanian organized crime does not operate with the same dynamic as the neighboring Slavic countries. In countries like Russia, Serbia and Bulgaria, organized crime is governed by strict rules, and violators are severely punished -- which creates a deterrent to participating in organized crime. In Romania, however, the rules are less clear, and punishments are less severe, and so organized crime is more common. Romania is the epicenter of identity theft and Internet crime in Europe (and the world). Because of the high prevalence of identity theft, travelers to Romania should

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avoid using credit cards at all times and at all establishments. Cash should be used instead of any form of electronic payments. Also, ATMs outside banks may have been tampered with, and should be avoided. If an ATM must be used, use one inside of a bank, and even then, look carefully for evidence of skimming devices (modifications on ATMs that are used to illegally capture a consumer's credit and debit card information) before using the machines. Since foreigners are required to carry identification documents at all times while in Romania, a passport photocopy should be kept in a separate location as a backup. Travelers who lose their travel documents should immediately contact the U.S. Embassy in Bucharest (contact information in the appendix to this report). Romanian hackers are considered some of the most advanced in the world. Therefore, the use of wireless Internet connections should be kept to a minimum and accessing secure or personal accounts (such as bank accounts) from a hotel wireless network or local area network should be avoided. Using USB ports for data transfer is also not recommended, especially "thumb drives" that one might receive from business partners. Finally, personal information stored on laptops, PDAs and cell phones should be kept to a minimum (sensitive business information and personal banking data should be removed prior to travel), and such devices should be kept on one's person at all times. Romanian cities are generally safe, especially city centers, where the major hotels are located. Residential suburbs are to be avoided as with most of the Balkans. Unlike in the United States, where suburbs are generally safer than the inner city, in southeastern Europe lower income housing is generally located in the suburbs while the urban centers consist of expensive real estate. Petty crime, such as pick pocketing and occasional theft, happens in Romania with great frequency, and minors are often involved in the commission of such crime. The heightened level of awareness that should be exercised in any major European city is recommended. Travelers should minimize the number of valuables they are carrying, and should avoid displaying large quantities of cash or expensive jewelry. Romania faces no appreciable terrorist threat despite its support of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. The country has no militant presence, and while it does have a Muslim community, it is not radicalized. Bucharest Bucharest is a large European city with a metropolitan area population of more than 2.5 million people. A heightened level of awareness should be maintained while in the city, but not above and beyond the level advisable for other European cities. Foreign business travelers are less likely to fall victim to crime than are budget travelers staying in marginal establishments. Bucharest's suburbs should be avoided, particularly at night. The most violent and dangerous suburbs are Ferentari, Pantelimon and Titan. These are out of the way for most Western travelers, so the chances of winding up lost in one are minimal. Nonetheless, one should be aware of their location prior to going to Bucharest. Avoiding establishments owned by organized crime is impossible, though the many scams associated with adult entertainment establishments means they should be avoided in particular. Restaurants, hotels and other establishments linked to organized crime are as safe as any other establishment, especially in Bucharest.

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While organized crime groups often compete over Black Sea coast tourist destinations, their activities in Bucharest are routinized and nonviolent. Constanta With a population of more than 300,000, Constanta is Romania's biggest port on the Black Sea. Like most port cities, it has a very high rate of organized crime activity, particularly in terms of drug and human trafficking. Even so, the town is generally safe for foreign travelers because Mayor Radu Stefan Mazare, a senior politician within the left-wing opposition Social Democratic Party and a media tycoon, maintains an iron grip on all organized criminal activity in the city. He is rumored to be the kingpin of the organized crime underworld in Constanta, and one of the most powerful organized crime figures in Romania. All establishments in the city, from clubs to factories, are rumored to pay Mazare protection money. Certain areas of Constanta should be avoided, especially during the night, such as its outlying suburbs and industrial areas. Because of Constanta's nature as a tourist town, illegal drugs are much more readily available and are sold in front of nightclubs. Nightclubs, bars and all other entertainment establishments therefore should be avoided as a precaution. On a side note, Mazare became embroiled in a scandal when he and his son decided to close a fashion show in Constanta in July by coming on stage dressed in Nazi uniform. When asked about the incident, Mazara countered that he "admired the rigorous organization of the German army." Ploiesti Situated about 60 kilometers (about 37 miles) north of Bucharest, Ploiesti is the seat of Prahova County. It has a population of about 230,000, and historically has been the heart of Romania's energy industry. Since the mid 19th century, oil extraction and refining became the town's most important industrial activity. It was one of the most heavily bombed cities in Europe by the Allies during later stages of World War II, as it was the key petroleum source for the Axis powers. Ploiesti remains heavily industrialized, and is Romania's second city in terms of realized industrial production. It houses a massive refining complex that is one of the largest in Europe and has considerable oil services industry. As a relatively small town, Ploiesti does not have the same level of criminal activity as larger Romanian cities. Organized crime does have a presence in the city, but mainly in industrial warehouse districts, and is not associated with threats to visitors or foreigners. Violent crime is not an issue, but Ploiesti does have a high incidence of pick pocketing, especially around transportation terminals and on routes like the south-to-west Line 2. The suburb of Malu Rosu (in western Ploiesti) should be avoided. Appendix Key Contacts Dialing Romania from abroad requires the Romanian country code of 40 (replaced by a zero for internal calls as indicated in brackets below). STRATFOR Romania Antonia Colibasanu: + 40 (0) 72 80 586 20

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U.S. Embassy 7-9, Tudor Arghezi Street District 2, Bucharest 020942 Romania Regional Security Office -- Priscilla Fox: + 40 (0) 21 200 33 66 U.S. Consulate 26, Nicolae Filipescu Street, District 2, Bucharest 020962 Romania Telephone: + 40 (0) 21 200-3300 Fax: +40 (0) 21 200-3505 E-mail Visas: visasbucharest@state.gov E-mail American Citizens: acsbucharest@state.gov Border Police at Bucharest Airport + 40 (0) 21 201 3309 + 40 (0) 21 351 5993 Transportation Police at Bucharest Airport + 40 (0) 21 201 3242 Police (Dialing from landlines): + 211 (Dialing from Romanian cell phone): + 01211 (Dialing from an international cell phone): + 401211 Key Events in August National holiday: Large crowds can be expected Aug. 15, when St. Mary's Day is commemorated, at vacation spots throughout Romania. Political parties might fund celebrations given the proximity of Romania's presidential election, especially in rural areas. Open-air concert: Madonna will be performing in Bucharest on Aug. 26 beginning at 8 p.m. local time at Izvor Park. Traffic jams can be expected in the surrounding neighborhood, along with an increased risk of pick pocketing and other petty crime. Football (soccer) match: An important football match will being Aug. 29 at 8 p.m. local time in Bucharest. Major football matches can spawn hooligan-type violence, meaning the Steaua Stadium area of Bucharest's Ghencea district should be avoided at this time.