2040 TRANSPORTATION PLANMICHIANA ON THE MOVE

NOVEMBER 2014

Michiana Area Council of Governments227 W. Jefferson Blvd.

County-City Building, Room 1120South Bend, IN 46614

2014 Policy Board Members

Judy Stone Councilman, Marshall County ChairpersonLarry Thompson Mayor, City of Nappanee Vice-ChairpersonAllan Kauffman Mayor, City of Goshen Vice-ChairpersonMarsha McClure Commissioner, St. Joseph County TreasurerJoseph Thallemer Mayor, City of Warsaw SecretaryPete Buttigieg Mayor, City of South Bend MemberOliver Davis Councilman, City of South Bend MemberJohn Letherman Councilman, Elkhart County MemberFrank Lucchese Commissioner, Elkhart County MemberDick Moore Mayor, City of Elkhart MemberKevin Overmyer Commissioner, Marshall County MemberJohn Reisdorf Councilman, City of Mishawaka MemberMark Root Councilman, St. Joseph County MemberBob Sanders Councilman, Kosciusko County MemberMark Senter Mayor, City of Plymouth MemberRon Troyer Councilman, City of Elkhart MemberRon Truex Commissioner, Kosciusko County MemberDavid Wood Mayor, City of Mishawaka Member

2014 Transportation Technical Advisory Committee Members

Jessica Clark St. Joseph County Engineering ChairpersonMary Cripe City of Goshen Engineering Vice-ChairpersonDavid Cagany South Bend PTC (Transpo) MemberRalph Booker Marshall County Planning MemberLarry Magliozzi St. Joseph County Area Plan MemberTim O’Donnell South Bend International Airport Member

Chris Dressel City of South Bend Community Investment Member

Angela Fegaras INDOT LaPorte District MemberRick Gaul City of Plymouth Public Works MemberChris Godlewski Elkhart County Planning MemberLaurie Baker Marshall County Highway MemberJerry Halperin INDOT Central Office MemberBill Holder Kosciusko County GIS MemberJohn Leckie INDOT Fort Wayne District MemberMichael Machlan City of Elkhart Engineering MemberRoger Nawrot City of South Bend Public Works MemberScott Tilden Kosciusko County Highway MemberKen Prince City of Mishwaka Planning MemberRon Robinson Kosciusko County Administrator MemberJeremy Skinner City of Warsaw Planning MemberJeff Taylor Elkhart County Highway MemberGary West City of Mishawaka Engineering Member

Acknowledgments

MACOG Staff Members

James Turnwald Executive DirectorZachery Dripps Principal PlannerJohn-Paul Hopman GIS/Network Modeling ManagerGreg Slater Senior Planner: Traffic Count ManagerJoe Mehl Regional PlannerCaitlin Stevens Regional PlannerErin Roznik Regional PlannerJeremy Reiman Environmental PlannerTierra Harris Transit PlannerThomas Yuill Transit PlannerRuss Ragimbekov Senior IT ManagerCarla Keirnan Office ManagerShirley Czerna Assistant Office ManagerJohnnie Woggon Transit Administrative Program SpecialistDebbie Gardner Fiscal Accounting MangerLori Ratliff Fiscal Accounting CoordinatorBen St. Germain Intern

Acknowledgments

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction 3Purpose of the Plan 4MPO Background 4Planning Area 5MAP-21 Planning Factors 6Planning Process 6

Chapter 2: Regional Overview 11Geography of the Region 12Transportation Network 13

Chapter 3: Trends & Projections 29Population Trends 30Household Trends 33Economic Trends 35Travel Patterns & Trends 37

Chapter 4: Recommendations 45Crossroads of America 46Recommendations 49

Chapter 5: Financial 53Federal Funding Programs 54Local Funding Programs 55Transit Funding Programs 56Highway Trust Fund 57Financial Plan 59

Chapter 6: System Performance 63National Performance Measures 64State Performance Measures 66Local Performance Measures 66

Appendix A: List of Proposed Projects 69

Appendix B: Michiana Area Travel Study 89

Appendix C: Modeling Process 93

Appendix D: Air Quality Conformtiy Analysis 105

Appendix E: Red Flag Investigation 109

Appendix F: Environmental Justice 143

Appendix G:Congestion Management Process 151

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FiguresFigure 1-1: MACOG Planning Area 5Figure 1-2: Transportation Planning Requirements 7

Figure 2-1: 2013 Estimated Population Ranking of Cities and Towns 12Figure 2-2: Region Location 12Figure 2-3: Roadway Network 13Figure 2-4: Number of Crashes by County from 2009-2013 14Figure 2-5: Percentage of Crashes Resulting in Injury by Type of Injury 15Figure 2-6: Regional Public Transit 16Figure 2-7: Transpo Ridership by Route 2012-2013 17Figure 2-8: Transpo Annual Ridership 17Figure 2-9: Interurban Trolley Ridership by Route 2012-2013 18Figure 2-10: Interurban Trolley Annual Ridership 18Figure 2-11: Proposed South Shore Realignment 19Figure 2-12: Midwest Regional Rail Initiative (MWRRI) System Map 20Figure 2-13 Means of Traveling to Work - Walking or Bicycling 21Figure 2-14: Types of Bicycle and Pedestrian Facilities 22Figure 2-15: Michiana Regional Bicycle and Pedestrian Facilities 23Figure 2-16: South Bend International Airport Enplanements 24Figure 2-17: Regional Truck Volume Flows 25

Figures ContinuedFigure 2-18: Railroad Freight Lines 26Figure 2-19: South Bend International Airport Cargo in Tons 26

Figure 3-1: Population Projections 30Figure 3-2: Population Pyramid - 2010 31Figure 3-3: Population Pyramid - 2040 31Figure 3-4: Average Household Size 34Figure 3-5: Percent of Families below Poverty Level 35Figure 3-6: Percent of Housing Supply - Vacant 35Figure 3-7: Change in Employment between 2003 - 2013 36Figure 3-8: Commuter Volumes Into and Out of Each County 38Figure 3-9: Percent of Employment by Industry 37Figure 3-10: Total Daily VMT by County 39Figure 3-11: Household Income vs Household Trips and Vehicles 40Figure 3-12: Percent of Commuters by Travel Time 40Figure 3-13: Projected Landuse Changes in 2040 41

Figure 4-1: Peak Period Congestion on the NHS: 2007 46Figure 4-2: Peak Period Congestion on the NHS: 2040 46Figure 4-3: Average Daily Long-Haul Traffic on the NHS: 2007 47

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Figures ContinuedFigure 4-4: Average Daily Long-Haul Traffic on the NHS: 2040 47Figure 4-5: Peak-Period Congestion on High-Volume Truck Portions on the NHS: 2007 48Figure 4-6: Peak-Period Congestion on High-Volume Truck Portions on the NHS: 2040 48

Figure 5-1: Receipts, Outlays, and Balance or Shortfall for the Highway Account Under CBO’s April 2014 Baseline 57Figure 5-2: Vehicle Miles Traveled - Moving 12-Month Total on All Highways 58

Figure A-1: Elkhart County Proposed Project Map 70Figure A-2: Kosciusko County Proposed Project Map 74Figure A-3: Marshall County Proposed Project Map 78Figure A-4: St. Joseph County Proposed Project Map 81

Figure C-1: The MACOG Hybrid Model Design 94

Figure F-1: Elkhart County Environmental Justice 143Figure F-2: Kosciusko County Environmental Justice 144Figure F-3: Marshall County Environmental Justice 145Figure F-4: St. Joseph County Environmental Justice 146

TablesTable 3-1: Median Age 2000 - 2040 30Table 3-2: Race and Ethnicity by County 32Table 3-3: 2030 Race and Ethnicity Projection for Indiana 32Table 3-4: Language Spoken at Home - Spanish 33Table 3-5: Household Populations 33Table 3-6: Household vs Population Growth - 2000-2012 34Table 3-7: Household Income 34

Table 4-1: Statewide Significant Projects 50

Table 5-1: Expenses vs Revenues - Highway Recap 59Table 5-2: Estimated Federal Highway Funds 60Table 5-3: Estimated Highway Match Funds 60Table 5-4: Estimated Federal Transit Funds 61

Table A-1: Elkhart County Proposed Project List 71Table A-2: Kosciusko County Proposed Project List 75Table A-3: Marshall County Proposed Project List 79Table A-4: St. Joseph County Proposed Project List 82

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Tables ContinuedTable C-1: Factors Affecting Household Tour and Stop Generation 96Table C-2: Factors Affecting Tour Mode Choice 99

Table E-1: Infrastructure 111Table E-2: Water Resources & Mining and Mineral Resources 120Table E-3: Hazardous Materials 130