2020s VISION: LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT ... › ext › resources › Events › tbf ›...
Transcript of 2020s VISION: LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT ... › ext › resources › Events › tbf ›...
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Michael C. Bellas
Chairman & CEO
Beverage Marketing Corporation
The Beverage Forum 2019
2020s VISION:LOOKING AHEAD
TO THE NEXT BEVERAGE DECADE
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THE 2010s DEFINED
Influence of Millennials
Growth of craft
Decline of many major brands
Constantly changing retail environment
Emerging technologies
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THE 2020s AT HAND
Dramatic & disruptive change
Influence of Gen Z
Smart technologies
Beverage companies digitize
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U.S. Total Beverage Market2014 – 2018
Volu
me C
han
ge
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1.1%
1.6%
2.0%
0.7%
1.1%
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U.S. Beverage Market Revenues2014 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 14/18 CAGR
1.1%
1.6%
2.0%
0.7%
1.1%1.4%
2.7%
2.3%2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1%
Volume Change
Revenue Change
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U.S. Beverage Market2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
1.8%
-0.7%-1.0%
1.7%
2.3%
-0.6% -0.6%
-1.3%
2017
2018
Tap Water Refreshment Beverages
Beverage Alcohol
Traditional Beverages
• Bottled Water
• CSDs
• Energy Drinks
• Fruit Beverages
• RTD Coffee
• RTD Tea
• Sports Drinks
• Value-Added Water
• Craft LRBs
• Beer
• Spirits
• Water
• Hot Coffee
• Hot Tea
• Milk
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Bottled Water2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
6.1%
5.0%
2017 2018
Bottled Water Growth Strong growth of 5%
Slightly lower rate than previous years
Ideal match for today’s consumer
87% of entire LRB growth
Domestic sparkling water fastest growing segment
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RTD Coffee2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
12.8%
7.4%
2017 2018
RTD Coffee Growth Growth slows a bit from 2017
Increase of 7.4% still healthy
Cold-brewed, nitrogenated and chilled drive growth
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Energy Drinks2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
3.7%
7.2%
2017 2018
Energy Drink Growth Growth measures 7.2%
Recovery boosted by Java Monster and Bang
Bang accounted for entirety of segment’s growth
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Value Added/Enhanced Water 2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
11.7%
18.3%
2017 2018
Value Added/Enhanced
Water Growth Volume increase vs. 2017 substantial
All types proliferating, gaining traction
Essential, Alkaline 88, Hint lead growth
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Sports Beverages 2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
-2.1%
3.7%
2017 2018
Sports Beverages
Growth A return to growth after 2017 decline
Body Armor leads the rise
Hottest brand doubles sales, captures half of category growth
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RTD Teas2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
1.1%
-0.1%
2017 2018
RTD Tea Growth Slight decline after decade of growth
Teas feel impact from sparkling and enhanced waters
Mealtime consumption is key
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Carbonated Soft Drinks2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
-1.3%
-0.6%
2017 2018
CSD Growth 14th consecutive year of volume decline
17th consecutive year per cap consumption drops
Decrease slows versus 2017
Diet CSDs lead relative upturn
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U.S. CSD Volume and Wholesale Revenue
2014 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
$51.4
$52.3$52.4
$52.9
$53.912.8
12.6
12.512.3
12.2
11.9
12.0
12.1
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.6
12.7
12.8
12.9
$49.6
$50.1
$50.6
$51.1
$51.6
$52.1
$52.6
$53.1
$53.6
$54.1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Whole
sale
Dollars
(Billions)
Billio
ns o
f Gallo
ns
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Fruit Beverages2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
-4.0%
-2.2%
2017 2018
Fruit Beverages
Growth Dip of 2.2% an improvement over 2017
Long-term decline continues
Genuine innovation represents bright spot
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Craft LRB Categories2017 – 2018
Category 2017 2018 2017/2018
Kombucha Tea $786.6 $930.2 18.3%
Protein Drinks 624.3 647.9 3.8%
Plant Waters 525.0 525.4 0.1%
Probiotics 306.2 330.5 7.9%
Cold Brew Coffee 183.2 243.0 32.6%
Essence Water 74.6 131.2 76.0%
Heathy Energy Drinks 90.5 101.8 12.5%
Functions Beverages 92.9 94.0 1.2%
Premium Mixers 62.4 71.7 15.0%
TOTAL $2,745.6 $3,075.8 12.0%
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Millions of Dollars Change
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Beverage Alcohol Market 2017 – 2018
Volu
me C
han
ge
-1.2%
2.7%
1.7%
-4.8%
-1.1%
2.2%
1.2%
7.6%
2017
2018
Cider Beer Spirits Wine
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
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Beer 2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
-1.2% -1.1%
2017 2018
Beer Growth Volume lost to wines and spirits
High-end beers a highlight
Imports and crafts have good years
Superpremium growth slows
FMBs led by hard seltzers
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Beer 2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
-1.2% -1.1%
2017 2018
Beer Growth High end 43% of volume and 50% of revenue
High end focus area of all brewers
Declining premiums and improving sub-premiums
Stabilizing declining categories an important challenge
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Spirits2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
2.7%
2.2%
2017 2018
Spirits Growth Growth off a bit from 2017
23 consecutive years of low-single digit growth
Whiskeys, Cognac, brandies drive progress
Tequila and Mezcal strong
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Spirits2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
2.7%
2.2%
2017 2018
Spirits Growth Premiumization affects all categories
Fastest growing categories consumed at slower pace
Craft continues to grow
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Wine 2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
1.7%
1.2%
2017 2018
Wine Growth Sales slow for third consecutive year
Category grows for 26th consecutive year
Sparkling wines lead growth
Table slowed, dessert declined, vermouth flattened out, specialty down
Premium, canned, direct-to-consumer all rise
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Alcoholic Cider2017 – 2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
-4.8%
7.6%
2017 2018
Cider Growth Category rebounds after two off years
Rosé, regional, local brands shine
Category likely to soften in 2019
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LRB Category Volume Growth Wholesale Dollar Growth
Value-Added Water +13.0% to +14.0% +16.0% to +17.0%
Craft LRBs +14.8% to 16.0% +13.0% to 15.0%
RTD Coffee +6.2% to +7.0% +8.2% to +9.0%
Bottled Water +4.2% to +5.0% +6.8% to +7.5%
Energy Drinks +5.8% to +6.6% +5.4% to +6.4%
Sports Drinks +3.0% to +4.0% +4.0% to +5.0%
RTD Tea +0.3% to +1.0% +2.3% to +3.1%
Carbonated Soft Drinks -0.7% to -0.2% +0.3% to +1.0%
Fruit Beverages -2.0% to -1.0% -1.0% to 0.0%
TOTAL +1.2% TO +2.0% +1.8% TO +2.6%
2019 LRB Category Projections
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2019 Beverage Alcohol Category Projections
Category Volume Growth Wholesale Dollar Growth
Beer -1.0% to -1.5% +0.5% to +1.0%
Wine +0.5% to +1.0% +1.5% to +2.0%
Spirits +1.5% to +2.0% +2.0% to +3.0%
Cider -5.0% to -7.0% -4.0% to -6.0%
TOTAL ALCOHOL -0.5% to -0.9% +0.8% to +1.8%
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MACRO FORCES IN THE DECADE
AHEAD
New generation of shoppers
Emerging business models
New technologies
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GENERATION Z
Largest consumer base by 2030
Distinct from Millennials
Ethnically diverse and technologically connected
View the future through a prism of realism
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GENERATION Z
True digital natives
Authenticity is signature value
Attribute-oriented and brand-agnostic
Open to relevant personalization
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GENERATION Z
Support companies that share values
Commitment to social consciousness will be more
holistic
Multi-faceted transparency
Diversity, living wages, compensation, pricing and
true costs
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HOW GEN Z SEES HEALTH &
WELLNESS
Physical fitness, healthy eating, mental well-being
interconnected
Focus: what’s in a beverage, how it’s made, benefits
it offers
Interest in functional beverages increases
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DRINKS THAT DO SOMETHING
Cognitive support, stress relief, sleep enhancement
“Future-proof” against health concerns
Positive and functional nutrition
Opportunities for large declining brands to be
reinvented
“Mindful drinking” products
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BEVERAGE PERSONALIZATION
Era of personal nutrition coming
Data and the consumer at heart of product
development
Improving health outcomes via individually tailored
beverages
We will “drink what we are”
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BEVERAGE PERSONALIZATION
Growing knowledge base on genetic variants
Not “a product for each person” (not yet)
Ability to segment population into about a dozen
types
We’re on our way to beverage personalization by
2030
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TECHNOLOGY’S IMPACT
Smart technologies will prevail everywhere
Homes will revolve around the smart refrigerator
Service Oriented Retailers will be better able to
efficiently fill orders
Marketers will create “the perfect brand
experience”
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TECHNOLOGY’S IMPACT
Beverage companies will digitally reinvent themselves
Corporate digitization will integrate products and services
Everybody and everything will connect and coordinate
More agile, effective companies able to act and react
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2020s VISION
Health-conscious Gen Z consumers
Personalized beverages
Smart homes
Service-oriented fulfillment retailers
Personalized marketers
Digitized beverage companies
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2020s VISION
Unprecedented challenge
Unprecedented opportunity
On the cusp of true transformation
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THANK YOU
Michael C. Bellas, Chairman & CEO
2020S VISION:
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT BEVERAGE DECADE