The 2020 EMBA Pre-Draft Preview

Come on Tommy: beat the Astros!I am starting this predraft preview on October 10 and the Rays take on the Astros in a huge game 5 matchup. The winner gets the right to take on the mighty Yanks. I’m hoping the Rays win. Why?I like their overall innovative approach to the game and how they can take players (See Ji-Man Choi) and develop them into a cohesive unit. Yes, the Astros are also good player developers and their farm system has been money. I just find the Rays more appealing and given their attendance situation, I am rooting for them to relocate to Las Vegas! Di and I go to a local place near our winter home in Las Vegas and Tyler has been our usual waiter. He loves baseball and we chat while he takes our order and brings drinks and food. He’s quite a personable guy and is friends with both Pham (plus his sister who comes in quite frequently) and Nick Kingham. Tyler and the two MLB players went to the same HS in LV.

Tommy was interviewed after game 4 and, as I am sure some of you heard, he had quite an interesting answer to the question posed to him “who was your inspiration” to become the player he is now. His reply was very composed: he indicated his inspiration was due to him! He mentioned that he threw and hit a ball against a wall for hours with no father to help him grow and develop. He was very articulate, and he wasn’t bragging either. It was a very compelling interview I felt. Pham had 3 hits on Tuesday night with Avasail Garcia also coming up big going 4-5. So, here is hoping that Choi and Pham have big nights tonight and upset Houston. (Frankly, they could have won the game where Osuna walked 3 with a 3-0 lead but he was bailed out by Will Smith.). By the way, in that same game was an insane defensive play by CF Kevin Kiermeier who caught a ball on the rebound on a dead run, threw to the cutoff man (Wily Adames) who then threw a strike to the catcher for a huge out on the speedy Jose Altuve-it was a difference maker in a tense game won 4-1 by the Rays. They just showed it again on MLB Tonight and “wow” doesn’t do it justice. I’m sure you are as shocked as my son and I were last night when Dave Roberts left Joe Kelly in for a second inning. Sure, he looked good the previous inning. At any rate, it didn’t work out and Roberts was forced to bring in Jansen to close it out. He’s taken a lot of heat for that decision and, once again, not winning the World Series.Tampa’s Garcia is from Venezuela and that links to the next section where we examine some fielding data from our season last year.You might recall that in the Preview, I suggested Poland might win their division. Clearly, they underachieved (or I over estimated) until they got hot at the end by winning 15 in a row and finished over .500. Poland had 3 “10” rated infielders on the same team.What kind of difference did it make? Here’s some data for your consideration. I just “eyeballed” the American League players in the Fielding Leader Board section for some comparison. Thus, I wouldn’t consider this the “definitive” study, but it does give an indication of the relative worth of a 10-range rated player. Let’s first look at the second base position.Player Team Rating Ch/G G/E G/Great RS/Ch DP/G

LeMahieu Poland 10 4.52 46 3.9 3.8% .67

Hernandez Bulverde 5 4.27 14 5.9 4.0% .62Torres Mohonasen 7 3.67 12 7.3 2.1% .67Dozier Newark 5 3.98 14 6.5 0.6% .67

Now for some explanation. I looked at Games/GS; Put outs; Assists; Errors; Total Chances; DP; Great Plays; Poor Plays and Fielding %. I then created some ratios displayed above: Chances/Game; Games per Error; Games Per Great Play; Runs Saved (according to the game) as a % of the players’ total chances; and DP/Game.Clearly, playing time has something to do with these stats although it isn’t presented here. LeMahieu and Hernandez were full time players with 139 and 153 game played. Torres was right behind at 131 and Dozier followed up with 123. You can clearly see: LeMahieu had an outstanding season and that 10 made a substantial difference to the Polish club. He led this cohort in Chances per game/Games between errors (he made 3 errors all season!); made a great play every 4 games and almost 4% of his chances saved a run. Now for the crucial position of Shortstop. Player Team Rating Ch/G G/E G/Great RS/Ch DP/G

Simmons Strongsville 10 4.30 15 2.1 5.8% .68Ahmed Poland 10 3.92 14 2.2 5.3% .58Turner Mohonasen 7 3.76 13 4.1 2.9% .43Polanco BC 6 3.53 9 6.2 -.4% .57

I can tell you from firsthand experience: Simmons was incredible in 2019. Ahmed shared time with Paul DeJong so his comparison might not hold up over the course of a full season. Given that he played in 96 games, he has a reasonable comparison to Simmons and, again, is better than the other 2 players in this data set. Trea Turner is an exciting young player, but he lags here with his 7 rating. Interestingly, Polanco had a negative runs saved % as a direct result of his “Great Plays/Poor Plays” net of -4. Supposedly, a rating of “6” is the average MLB player in Action. Maybe Polanco would have fared better with more data? He also played less than ½ a season so I’m not quite sure to make of it except that he’s clearly the outlier compared to the other 3.Now let us to turn to 3b. Player Team Rating Ch/G G/E G/Great RS/Ch DP/G

Chapman Poland 10 2.75 8 3.2 6.1% .20Rendon Strongsville 7 2.36 29 4.1 1.5% .15Franco Westchester 6 2.50 8 5.9 0.0% .26Candelario BC 6 2.67 18 9.1 -9.2% .12

Once again, you can see the “10” has a greater number of chances. Chapman had 19 errors and a fielding % of .955 so that depressed his numbers a bit. However, he was very good with 48 “great plays” and only 5 “poor plays” all season. Rendon had a strong year with only 5 errors but was in negative territory with 35 “great” and 37 “poor”. Chapman had a huge impact in comparison to the others with 6.1% of his chances saving a run (again according to the game calculations). My take is that having that 10 is a substantial difference maker and results in more chances and a great impact on defensive runs saved as a percentage of total chances. How much? Good question for another time.In our CTMBL retro league (1973 season underway), the “Gold Standard” has been Luis Aparicio.In an article I found called the “Latin Shortstops Field of Dreams” here is an excerpt about our greatest SS to date:

During his rookie season with the White Sox, Aparicio couldn’t find the calm to attack all those grounders hit to his position. But he settled in with time, and that calm during the hardest times of the game remained with him for the rest of his career, as in that August 11, 1961 shutout where Billy Pierce hurled a shutout and Aparicio hit a homer to win 1-0 over the Kansas City A’s. Or the May 25, 1972 contest, when Marty Pattin pitched another gem to lead the Red Sox to a 2-1 victory against the Baltimore Orioles: In the bottom of the third, Aparicio plated  Tommy Harper with a single to right field, then stole second base, went to third base on a sacrifice fly to center field by Duane Josephson and scored on a passed ball by Elrod Hendricks.

In the Venezuelan winter league, he (Aparicio) was a key factor in the first three titles of the Tigres de Aragua. I particularly remember two moments. One was the unassisted triple play he performed while playing first base for the Aragua team in a postseason game against the Leones del Caracas. The other moment happened in the majors on June 23, 1971. Concepción was the only baserunner Rick Wise allowed in a no-hitter. In the sixth inning, Concepción drew a walk, breaking Wise’s perfect game.

The batter hits a hard grounder over second base that Aparicio takes almost on the centerfield grass. He makes a lopsided throw to first. But Alfonso Chico Carrasquel takes his mask off. He runs, as the best Olympic sprinter would, to get the ball just few feet in front of the stands, behind the line of shallow right field, holding the runner at first.

I hope the game the White Sox and Yankees are going to play at that field in Iowa next season can be institutionalized as an annual game. It would be a great and deserved tribute to a movie that expresses, in less than two hours, all the passion, intensity, and obsession that permeates baseball. And in my mind, the team of shortstops plays on, their greatness never ending.

Just as a way of reference, in our CMBL league (1956-1972 complete), Aparicio is far and away the best SS ever. In the history of our league, there have been 2 SS who have over 1,000 plays. Here’s the comparison and how a 10 range (usually Aparicio) can make a difference over a significant time:

Player Games DP Great Plays Fielding AVG

Aparicio, Luis

4288 1493 1038 .973

Groat, Dick 1564 1015 468 .957

If you look at the leader boards and compare the difference between Great Plays and Poor Plays it gives you another dimension to the fielding aspects of Action:

DJ LeMahieu: +30

Andrelton Simmons: +58

Nolan Arrenado: +29

Alex Gordon: +21

About 20 years ago, W.P. Kinsella made a visit to a bookstore in Omaha. My mother went to the signing and got an autographed copy and pics of the author of “Shoeless Joe”. He was crazy looking! It would be crazy fun to go that game in Dyersville, but tickets will be impossible to acquire. This section was written on October 10, 2019 and I’ll continue sometime soon.UpdateWell, that was a disappointment for the Rays. I heard an interesting segment on Sirius MLB Radio where they were suggesting that Glasnow was tipping his pitches in the first inning (besides throwing them down Broadway). It would suggest that is accurate because after the first the Astros didn’t get another hit until the 6th or so. Whatever, it’s now the Yanks vs Houston in what should be an epic seriesI like the Nationals versus the Cardinals by 4-3. I’m thinking their starting pitching will do it. If it goes to the pen then the Nationals will be struggling I think (See Fernando Rodney).We shall see.Jay October 11, 2019We now continue in 2020 and a lot has happened since that initial installment in late 2019. I missed reporting on the World Series due to some personal issues. Congrats to the Nats! Per the “Update”, we don’t know for certain whether the “tipping” pitches was a result of the Astros ability to “read” pitches or “something else”. The current investigation centered on 2017 and not much has been said about 2018 and 2019. Carlos Correa has now gone on TV to defend Altuve and attacked Cody Bellinger. Understatement: it’s going to be an interesting season at least the first few weeks.Today, on the Ed Randall “Talking Baseball” program, an author named Paul Dickson was interviewed. He is the author of the book titled “The Hidden Language of Baseball (published in September 2019): How Signs and Sign-Stealing Have Influenced the Course of Our National Pastime”.I’d say the book is quite topical and it was an interesting interview. He indicated he had “picked up” the information on the Astros cheating in 2017. He did make the point of differentiating between the activities in his book (mostly “gamesmanship”) and the Astros. This book, and many others on baseball, are available at the University of Nebraska Press website.

However, the major story on the Astros was broken by a hallmark of sports journalism: The Wall Street Journal.Jared Diamond’s column was the most explosive. I have an online subscription, so I can send it in total if you haven’t read it. Here it is:

On Sept. 22, 2016, an intern in the Houston Astros organization showed general manager Jeff Luhnow a PowerPoint presentation that featured the latest creation by the team’s high-tech front office: an Excel-based application programmed with an algorithm that could decode the opposing catchers’ signs. It was called “Codebreaker.”This was the beginning of what has turned into one of the biggest scandals in Major League Baseball history. Throughout the 2017 season and for part of 2018, Astros baseball operations employees and video room staffers used Codebreaker to illegally steal signs, which were then relayed to batters in real time. Another Astros employee referred to the system as the “dark arts.”This previously undisclosed information about the origins and nature of the Astros’ cheating comes from both a letter MLB commissioner Rob Manfred sent to Luhnow on Jan. 2 that outlined the findings of a league investigation, as well as interviews with several people familiar with the matter.

Eleven days after Manfred’s letter, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, MLB announced that it had suspended Luhnow, as well as field manager A.J. Hinch, for the entire 2020 season. Hours later, the Astros fired both Luhnow and Hinch.

The existence of Codebreaker shows that it was the Astros front office that laid the groundwork for the team’s electronic sign-stealing schemes.

During MLB’s probe, Luhnow maintained that he had no knowledge of any of the Astros’ misconduct. However, Manfred wrote in his letter that “there is more than sufficient evidence to support a conclusion

that you knew—and overwhelming evidence that you should have known—that the Astros maintained a sign-stealing program that violated MLB’s rules.”

But while the league collected evidence that showed Luhnow was aware of Codebreaker’s existence and capabilities, it couldn’t prove that he knew how it was used. In response to Manfred’s letter, Luhnow presented investigators with a binder with more than 170 pages that cast at least some doubt on the contents of the initial letter, according to multiple people familiar with the matter.

These people described the situation as a “he said-he said” between Luhnow and Tom Koch-Weser, the team’s director of advance information, who sent two emails to Luhnow in 2017 that referenced “the system” and “our dark arts, sign-stealing department.”

Luhnow opened the emails, but told investigators he did not read to the bottom of them.

Complicating matters further, Koch-Weser’s responsibilities were reduced following the 2019 season, but before allegations of the Astros’ cheating became public in a November story in The Athletic.

MLB couldn’t decipher whose account was truthful. In his final findings, Manfred said that the investigation revealed that “Luhnow neither devised nor actively directed the efforts of the replay review room staff to decode signs in 2017 or 2018.”

Luhnow declined to comment through a spokesman. In a statement released last month, Luhnow said, “As the commissioner set out in his statement, I did not personally direct, oversee or engage in any misconduct.” The Astros did not provide comment on behalf of their employees. Koch-Weser did not respond to requests for comment.

The Houston Astros won the 2017 World Series.PHOTO: GODOFREDO A. VASQUEZ/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The way Codebreaker worked was simple: Somebody would watch an in-game live feed and log the catcher’s signs into the spreadsheet, as well as the type of pitch that was thrown. With that information, Codebreaker determined how the signs corresponded with different pitches. Once decoded, that information would be communicated through intermediaries to a baserunner, who would relay them to the hitter.

Starting around June 2017, the system was embellished by Astros players. They started watching a live game feed on a monitor near the dugout and then would bang on a trash can to communicate the coming pitch to the batter. The “banging scheme” lasted through the 2017 World Series, which the Astros won over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Manfred said Luhnow was unaware of the banging scheme.

But everything started with Codebreaker, and the use of it to steal signs continued into 2018—not just at home, but also on the road.

Luhnow acknowledged to investigators that he recalled the intern’s PowerPoint slide about Codebreaker and even asked questions about how it worked. He said that he was under the impression that it would be used to legally decipher signs from previous game footage—not live in games.

The intern, Derek Vigoa, currently the Astros’ senior manager for team operations, told investigators that he presumed Luhnow knew it would be used in games because that was “where the value would be,” according to the letter. But he said he didn’t recall whether he explicitly told Luhnow that Codebreaker would be used during games.

Vigoa’s presentation wasn’t the only time Astros employees say Luhnow was informed about Codebreaker. Koch-Weser, the Astros’ director of advance information, said he discussed Codebreaker with Luhnow in one to three meetings after the 2016 season.

Koch-Weser told MLB that Luhnow would “giggle” at the title and appeared “excited” about it. Koch-Weser also said that Luhnow sometimes entered the Astros’ video room during road games and made comments such as, “You guys Codebreaking?”

Luhnow denied Koch-Weser’s accounts.

Jeff Luhnow was suspended by MLB on Jan. 13. He was fired by the Astros hours later.PHOTO: PATRICK SEMANSKY/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Other Astros employees told MLB’s investigators that they believed Luhnow knew about Codebreaker, but they provided no definitive proof. Matt Hogan, now the Astros’ manager of pro scouting analysis, told investigators there was no effort to hide the use of Codebreaker in front of Luhnow when he visited the video room. In fact, he told them, “it would have been something to show we were working and get validation of our work.” Luhnow denied seeing evidence of sign-stealing during those visits.

In October 2018, Luhnow met with Koch-Weser to discuss a potential contract extension. In preparation, Koch-Weser outlined his arguments for an extension in a Slack post that included the term “dark arts.” He wrote, in part: “Lastly, I know the secrets that made us a championship team, some of which he[’]d definitely feel a lot safer if they were kept

in-house.” Koch-Weser told MLB investigators that during his meeting with Luhnow, he used either the term “dark arts” or “codebreaking” to tout his efforts. Luhnow denied that Koch-Weser referenced either of those things.

Koch-Weser also used the term “dark arts” in the Astros’ Advanced Scouting Department’s 2019 budget Excel spreadsheet. Luhnow acknowledged that he reviewed the document but denied reading the tab “dark arts” was written in and denied that any discussion of “dark arts” took place during the budget meeting.

In Manfred’s public report last month, he said that Luhnow received at least two emails that mentioned the Astros’ sign-stealing. His letter to Luhnow expanded upon the content of those emails.

One was sent by Koch-Weser on May 24, 2017 and was titled “Road Notes (April-May).” The five-page email included six underlined topic headings, with the fifth one called, “The System”—a reference to what Koch-Weser described to investigators as “all kind of covert operations,” including sign-stealing. Luhnow told investigators he didn’t read the full email because of its length, and that he was unfamiliar with the term “the system.” Two people familiar with the matter said it was generally known in the Astros front office that Luhnow expected his staff to put pertinent information in the first page of any email.

Luhnow responded to that email a day later: “These are great, thanks.” He wrote another email about three hours later. “How much of this stuff do you think [Hinch] is aware of?” Luhnow asked Koch-Weser.

On Aug. 26, 2017, in another “road notes,” Koch-Weser wrote: “The system: our dark arts, sign-stealing department has been less productive in the second half as the league has become aware of our

reputation and now most clubs change their signs a dozen times per game.” He added that struggling teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland Athletics “seem not to care as much.”

Luhnow responded two weeks later.

“Tom, this type of write up is very helpful,” he wrote. “Seems like our baserunning is still pathetic. What the hell happened to our pitching this series? I mean that was historically bad…”

Nonetheless, Luhnow told investigators that he did not read the full email because of its length and that if he had, he would have followed up because the reference to “dark arts” sounded “nefarious” and “sinister.”

The evidence led Manfred to believe that Luhnow knew about that element of the Astros’ sign-stealing. In the last paragraph of Manfred’s letter, he wrote: “I intend to hold you accountable for the egregious rules violations that took place under your supervision…”

Luhnow was suspended by MLB for a year on Jan. 13. He was fired by the Astros hours later.Last week, the media circus began with the lame statement by Jim Crane, Astros owner, and the subsequent “apologies” by the major players including Altuve and Bregman. (My favorite moment was when Baker apologized, and he wasn’t even there!). Verlander has continued to be quite low key. Then other players have weighed in-critically- and then Correa responded with his defense of Altuve. (Question: why couldn’t Altuve defend himself?). Manfred’s statement today that retaliation is supposedly not an option for Astros opponents leads to the question: what happens if they are hit?

Before all of this came to light, I was going to center this draft preview around the question: what great teams have been defeated before the World Series? Last year, you might recall, I did a piece on “how good were the 2018 Boston Red Sox” (ok we are waiting for the MBL report on their hijinks

to reevaluate that claim). Obviously, the Nationals beating them in the World Series was an “upset” and I wondered how do the Astros rank in terms of that group that lost?

Here came the answer courtesy of Fangraphs:

The 2019 Astros Join a List of Great Failures

by Craig Edwards November 1, 2019

The list of baseball’s winningest teams is one that any franchise would want to be on, but if we take that list and remove the World Series champions, it becomes something of a bummer. Everyone remembers the 2001 Mariners more for what they didn’t do than what they did. It’s not clear how history will remember the 2019 Astros. It seems likely this club will simply get tossed in with the 2017 team that did win it all, taking some of the sting away from not being able to claim a second championship this season. Though perhaps difficult for Houston and its fans right now, we should remember just how great this team was. There’s a reason the Astros’ World Series odd were so high for so long, and it’s because they put together a roster that, over the course of the regular season and much of the postseason, was a lot better than everyone else.

The table below feels almost obligatory, but here’s a list of the teams to win least 105 games, with how their seasons finished:

Teams with the Most Wins in a Season

Season Team W Result2001 Mariners 116 Lost ALCS

Season Team W Result

1906 Cubs 115 Lost World Series

1998 Yankees 114 Won World Series

1954 Indians 111 Lost World Series

1927 Yankees 110 Won World Series

1909 Pirates 110 Won World Series

1969 Orioles 109 Lost World Series

1961 Yankees 109 Won World Series

1970 Orioles 108 Won World Series

1975 Reds 108 Won World Series

1986 Mets 108 Won World Series

2018 Red Sox 108 Won World Series

2019 Astros 107 Lost World Series

1932 Yankees 107 Won World Series

1931 Athletics 107 Lost World Series

1907 Cubs 107 Won World Series

1939 Yankees 106 Won World Series

1998 Braves 106 Lost NLCS

1904 Giants 106 No World Series

2019 Dodgers 106 Lost NLDS1942 Cardinals 106 Won World

Season Team W ResultSeries

1905 Giants 105 Won World Series

1944 Cardinals 105 Won World Series

1943 Cardinals 105 Lost World Series

1953 Dodgers 105 Lost World Series

1912 Red Sox 105 Won World Series

2004 Cardinals 105 Lost World Series

Ahead of the Astros on the list are the 2001 Mariners, the 1906 Cubs, the 1954 Indians, and the 1969 Orioles, with the 1931 A’s also winning 107 games. Looking just at wins can skew things a little because teams haven’t always played 162 games and doesn’t give us a great sense of their underlying talent level. To provide some of that perspective, let’s first take a look at WAR. I went back to 1903 and separated every team’s WAR by pitching and hitting, and put it on this scatter plot:

The Astros are one of just nine teams to hit 60 WAR in a season. Of those teams, only three won the World Series. Here are the teams with the most WAR produced in a season:

Teams with the Most WAR in a Season

Season Team WPos

Player WAR

Pitcher WAR

Total WAR Result

1927 Yankees 110 49.3 17 66.3 Won World Series

1969 Orioles 109 44.6 20.5 65.1 Lost World Series

1998 Braves 106 37.6 27 64.6 Lost NLCS

2019 Astros 107 40.8 23.7 64.5 Lost World Series

2001 Mariners 116 44.4 18.9 63.3 Lost ALCS

1905 Giants 105 40.3 21.1 61.4 Won World Series

1976 Reds 102 45.9 14.6 60.5 Won World Series

Season Team WPos

Player WAR

Pitcher WAR

Total WAR Result

1974 Dodgers 102 37.4 22.9 60.3 Lost World Series

1997 Braves 101 31.8 28.5 60.3 Lost NLCS

1944 Cardinals 105 36.9 22.5 59.4 Won World

Series

1939 Yankees 106 44.7 14.6 59.3 Won World Series

1931 Yankees 94 45 14.3 59.3 Lost Pennant2019 Dodgers 106 34.8 24.1 58.9 Lost NLDS

1998 Yankees 114 36.1 21.2 57.3 Won World Series

1970 Orioles 108 36.9 20.4 57.3 Won World Series

2017 Indians 102 26.7 30.4 57.1 Lost ALDS

1943 Cardinals 105 33.3 23.6 56.9 Lost World

Series

1942 Yankees 103 39.4 17.3 56.7 Lost World Series

2002 Yankees 103 28.5 28.2 56.7 Lost ALDS

1971 Orioles 101 39.3 17.3 56.6 Lost World Series

If someone tried to tell you that WAR doesn’t matter since only seven of the top 20 teams won the World Series, keep in mind only 11 of the top 21 teams by wins won the World Series. Also, look at this scatter plot that shows win percentage and WAR by team for every season since 1903:

There’s pretty clearly a strong relationship between a team’s WAR and how many games they win. Because both WAR and wins matter, I wanted to put the two together to give this Astros season greater context. To that end, I created an IQ-like score for win percentage and WAR, where 100 is average and each standard deviation away from the average was worth 15 points:

Best Regular Seasons in MLB History

Season Team W

%W% IQ

WAR

WAR IQ

W%/WAR IQ AVG Result

1927 Yankees

.714 139.2 66.

3 146.2 142.7 Won World Series

2001 Mariners

.716 139.5 63.

3 142.1 140.8 Lost ALCS

1906 Cubs .762 147.9 54.

8 130.5 139.2 Lost World Series

1969 Orioles .673 131.6 65.

1 144.5 138.1 Lost World Series

1939 Yankees

.702 136.9 59.

3 136.6 136.8 Won World Series

1905 Giants .686 134.1 61.

4 139.5 136.8 Won World Series

2019 Astros .660 129.4 64.

5 143.7 136.5 Lost World Series

1998 Braves .654 128.2 64.

6 143.8 136.0 Lost NLCS

1998 Yankees

.704 137.3 57.

3 133.9 135.6 Won World Series

1944 Cardinals

.682 133.3 59.

4 136.8 135.0 Won World Series

1909 Pirates .724 140.9 53.

2 128.3 134.6 Won World Series

1943 Cardinals

.682 133.3 56.

9 133.4 133.3 Lost World Series

1904 Giants .697 136.1 54.

8 130.5 133.3 No World Series

1954 Indians .721 140.4 50.

8 125.1 132.7 Lost World Series

1932 Yankees

.695 135.6 53.

7 129.0 132.3 Won World Series

1953 Dodgers

.682 133.3 55.

4 131.3 132.3 Lost World Series

1970 Orioles .667 130.5 57.

3 133.9 132.2 Won World Series

2019 Dodgers

.654 128.2 58.

9 136.1 132.2 Lost NLDS

1931 Athletics

.704 137.3 52.

0 126.7 132.0 Lost World Series

1942 Yankees

.669 130.9 56.

7 133.1 132.0 Lost World Series

1942 Cardinals

.688 134.4 53.

5 128.8 131.6 Won World Series

1976 Reds .630 123.7 60.

5 138.3 131.0 Won World Series

1974 Dodgers

.630 123.7 60.

3 138.0 130.9 Lost World Series

1975 Reds .667 130.5 55.

1 130.9 130.7 Won World Series

1997 Braves .623 122.6 60.

3 138.0 130.3 Lost NLCS

1910 Athletics

.680 132.9 52.

5 127.4 130.2 Won World Series

1986 Mets .667 130.5 54.

1 129.6 130.0 Won World Series

The Astros aren’t the best team not to win the World Series; that “honor” still goes to the Mariners. And they aren’t the best team to make it to the World Series and lose. Even if you throw out the 1906 Cubs because it was so long ago, the 1969 Orioles probably have the better case. But after those teams, the Astros stand out. Also standing out on this list, the Washington Nationals, who just beat two of the greatest teams of all time on their way to winning the World Series. The Astros had a great season, great enough that they are now on the list no team wants to be on.

FacebookTwitterRedditEmailSo, all things considered, the 2019 Astros rank with the 1906 Cubs and the 1969 Orioles as some of the worst World Series chokers of all time!

Two Mock Drafts for your entertainment:Mock 1

Draft Pick # Team Player1 Eugene Vlad, Jr 3b2 Indiana Tatis, Jr SS3 Mohanasen Paddack P4 Omaha Lu 2b5 Bluff City Alonso 1b6 Irishtown Arreaz INF7 Coastal McKay P/DH8 Susquehanna Means P9 New Oxford Alvarez LF

10 Bulverde Smith C11 Poland Jimenez LF/DH12 Portland Bichette SS13 Silk City Reynolds CF14 Virginia Urshela 3b15 Harrisburg Hiura 2b16 Eugene Canning P17 Damascus Kieboom 2b/SS18 Fishtown Santana INF/OF19 Westchester Mercado CF20 Ambler Biggio 2b21 Brooklyn JD Davis LF/3b22 Harrisburg Senzel CF/3b

23 Strongsville M Keller P24 Durham D May P

Mock 2Draft Pick # Team Player

1 Eugene Vlad, Jr 3b2 Indiana Alonso 1b3 Mohonasen Paddack P4 Omaha Tatis, Jr5 Bluff City Walker6 Irishtown Jimenez LF7 Coastal Lux 2b8 Susquehanna D May P9 New Oxford Smith C

10 Bulverde Alvarez LF/DH11 Portland Canning P12 Portland Bichette SS13 Silk City Hiura 2b14 Virginia Santana INF/OF15 Harrisburg Luzardo P16 Eugene Means P17 Damascus Edman 3b18 Fishtown Reynolds RF19 Westchester Gallegos P20 Ambler Biggio 2b21 Brooklyn Aarez INF22 Harrisburg Puk P23 Strongsville Plesac P24 Durham Bummer P

Due to a series of incidents (one unexpected and the other a new house closing/move in), I couldn’t complete the predraft team ratings. Apology for that but I’ve run out of time. I should have some time during the draft to develop them and will send out in about 3-4 weeks. I will say Durham and Harrisburg look pretty good in the NL. It isn’t a surprise they were good last year. In the AL, Strongsville and Westchester seemed to stand out but it’s much cloudier in this league. We’ll see how the numbers shake out before we play.

In lieu of predictions, here was an interesting interview with Scott Boras that I saved which was from November/December:

“When you go to the zoo and half the bears are asleep,’’ Boras says, “you’re not able to enjoy the zoo. The industry is in a competitive hibernation, and the fans are reacting to it.“We got a decline in attendance. We got owners charging more for generations that want to see the game, while we’re losing a generation of young people that are only interested in competition.

Scott Boras 11/13/2019

The article continues:

He railed against the structural mechanisms he believes stop teams from pursuing elite talent, the league’s lack of competitiveness and the pervasiveness of analytics he says executives use to justify not spending. And he debuted a new batch of the one-liners and baffling metaphors he uses to showcase his clients.

• On superstar pitcher Gerrit Cole: “If this were Major League Christmas, we would be looking at 30 stockings that would clearly want a lump of Cole.”

• On World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg: “In the oceans of the playoffs, the Stras-burg sank many contending ships.”

• On outfielder Nicholas Castellanos: “Old St. Nick delivers once a year. Young St. Nick delivers all season.”

One reason may be that some of the tactics Boras once used no longer work the way they once did. For years, Boras would enter negotiations with reams of statistics and information that at times outclassed what was available to the teams. Not anymore. With the benefit of advanced metrics, algorithms and computer models, front offices are firm in how much they think players are worth. No longer can Boras talk them up or persuade them to reconsider.

Baseball has gotten smarter. Over the next few months, Boras will show whether he’s still a step ahead.Well, Boras clearly knew how to get $$$ for Cole and Strasburg and did a good job for Castellanos. The teams may be catching up but are still paying.

As you know, this virus is wreaking havoc in China and has spread around to other Asian cities. A friend of mine went to the Tanglin Mall the other night and indicated that the crowds were sparse and there had been some serious buying (panic?). The Tanglin Mall is one of the oldest shopping Centers in Singapore and usually busy all the time.

Here is their promo piece describing the mall:Tanglin Mall is strategically located at the junction of Tanglin Road & Grange Road. Set in an eclectic background of colonial and tropical architecture, to reflect an ambience of warmth and comfort, Tanglin Mall is a niche for the expatriates, yuppies & professionals.

A 4-storey, a one-stop lifestyle mall with over 71 shops, restaurant & services, Tanglin Mall caters to affluent catchment of approx 1 million residents in the nearby districts and anchor tenants include Tanglin Market Place (a gourmet supermarket cum bakery) and Tanglin Food Hall (a foodie paradise).

Complementary exciting offerings like Pano Kato, Patara Fine Thai Cuisine, Caffe Beviamo, Starbucks Coffee, Brunetti, Yantra Restaurant, Smiggle® and PAUL Bakery Restaurant. . . Or simply indulge in the numerous specialty & services that caters to your every whim & fancy. From fashion to home fashion, sports and leisure to hobbies, hairdressing to dental services, maternity to baby care, toys to edutainment, laundry service & more. Plus, there are over 400 car park lots for your shopping convenience.

We all referred to it as the “ultimate expat mall” when I lived there. Why? It was overpriced largely because it was frequented by expats. The major supermarket at the Mall, The Tanglin Market Place, is an upscale version of

the same things sold in the housing projects and there it is known as “Cold Storage”. It charges about 20-30% more when we looked at it.

Here is a picture my friend took which showed shelves after panic buying had set in for “personal products”:

Well, at least they were not out of Evian water as you can see on the shelves on the far right. Their new packaging declares they are “carbon neutral”.

Have a great draft!

Jay February 18, 2020

Post Script: I hear that Mr. Manfred is now getting quite a bit of stick from the players today. He blew that press conference on Sunday. And in more news……..

In late breaking news, Justin Turner criticized Manfred for his cavalier “it’s a piece of metal” about winning a championship.

Here is the exact quote courtesy, again, of Jared Diamond and the WSJ of Feb 18:

“For him to devalue it the way he did [Sunday] just tells me how out of touch he is with the players in this game,” Turner told reporters, offering the harshest rebuke of Manfred yet. “At this point, the only thing devaluing that trophy is that it says ‘commissioner’ on it.”

Mike Trout was critical of the Astros.

I just heard that JD Martinez is in favor or “moving on” and that talking about/criticizing the Astros is “a little much”.

Since the Red Sox investigation has not been completed those sentiments might be premature.

It feels to me like it is still burning pretty hot.

Today (Tuesday) I heard Aaron Judge. He echoed the same.

I could go on but it is almost time to draft.

PS Welcome Stan!