2019/20: Global Stocks Boom Since May’s Initial Forecast · Monetary Fund) forecasts for 2018,...

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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2019/20: Global Stocks Boom Since May’s Initial Forecast

Dampened global cotton consumption and higher carryin have driven the 2019/20 forecast for global ending stocks higher compared with the initial May forecast. World ending stocks for 2019/20 are now forecast at 80.8 million bales, largely due to changes for use in both the 2018/19 and 2019/20 forecasts. Reductions for use in both years have been mostly driven by lower expectations for global GDP growth and dampened demand prospects for cotton. Economic growth is a major driver of cotton demand. As growth prospects in major cotton-consuming markets have been pressured lower, expectations for cotton demand have likewise been reduced. Major slowdowns in global demand and economic growth are highlighted by recent IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecasts for 2018, 2019, and 2020, as the 2019 forecast has been cut by nearly one percent (year with the highest reduction) compared with the IMF’s May forecast. The world’s largest consumer of cotton, China, has seen both its 2018/19 and 2019/20 forecasts for consumption trend down since May, due in part to slower domestic economic growth exacerbated by the ongoing trade conflict with the United States. The largest contributor to higher global stocks is India, where ending stocks are now projected more than 80 percent higher than May’s forecast. The 2018/19 and 2019/20 forecasts for production are higher while consumption has declined in both years, primarily due to sluggish economic growth, and the Minimum Support Price’s impacts (higher-priced domestic supplies) weakening domestic yarn exports. A historically generous price support program (MSP) has somewhat kept internal cotton prices high for downstream users and hindered these manufacturers’ exports prospects. Higher stocks and less use in Bangladesh since May reflect a slowing export forecast for its textile and apparel products. Reduced prospects for the country’s fabric and garment exports are attributed to economic slowdowns in major consuming markets, including the EU and the United States.

40 50 60 70 80 90

100 110 120 130 140

Production Use Beginning Stocks Ending Stocks

Mil.

Bal

es

Dampened Use Propels Global Stocks Up

May 2019 Forecast Nov. 2019 Forecast

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service November 2019

Cotton: World Markets and Trade

Although global production is projected slightly lower from May, the 2019/20 forecast remains more than 3 million bales above the previous year, adding further to global supplies and stocks. Higher 2019/20 supplies and lower consumption are propelling ending stocks 7 percent higher since May’s forecast, furthering pressuring prices.

OverviewFor 2019/20, the November forecast shows, compared with the previous month, a global use estimate that is nearly unchanged and a decline in production and ending stocks. Production is down in Pakistan, India, and China. Global trade is raised with higher imports in Turkey and Pakistan due to smaller crops. The Brazil export forecast is raised on strong early season shipments, especially to China. The U.S. forecast has lower production and ending stocks, with exports unchanged. The U.S. season-average farm price is projected at 61 cents per pound, 3 cents above last month’s forecast, but 13 percent lower than the final 2018/19 price of 70.3 cents.

For current prices received by farmers click here; NASS farm price

Prices

The A-index and the U.S. spot prices were up slightly from October’s WASDE amid an improved market perception for the outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations, and lower expected production.

For more information on U.S. spot price click here; AMS Cotton Market News

Nov-19, 74.9

Nov-19, 61.0

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Sep-16O

ct-16N

ov-16D

ec-16Jan-17Feb-17M

ar-17A

pr-17M

ay-17Jun-17Jul-17A

ug-17Sep-17O

ct-17N

ov-17D

ec-17Jan-18Feb-18M

ar-18A

pr-18M

ay-18Jun-18Jul-18A

ug-18Sep-18O

ct-18N

ov-18D

ec-18Jan-19Feb-19M

ar-19A

pr-19M

ay-19Jun-19Jul-19A

ug-19Sep-19O

ct-19N

ov-19ce

nts/

lb.

Monthly Average Cotton Prices

A-Index U.S. Spot Price

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 November 2019Office of Global Analysis

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/c821gj76b?locale=en

http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/cotton

2019/20 TRADE OUTLOOK Major Importers: Change Current Prev. Reason

WORLD - 44,033 42,904

Turkey 600 3,800 3,200 Smaller crop

Pakistan 500 3,600 3,100 Smaller crop

India 200 1,800 1,600 Strong early season demand reflecting high internal prices

Indonesia -200 3,100 3,300 Lower-than-expected growth

Major Exporters: Change Current Prev. Reason

WORLD - 44,028 42,913

Brazil 300 8,600 8,300 Record monthly shipments and robust early season demand

Malaysia 250 550 300

Burgeoning supplies in consignment with expectations to clear customs

India 100 4,100 4,000 Higher world prices improve competitiveness

Benin 100 1,400 1,300

Robust foreign demand expected to continue from last year’s record exports

Greece 100 1,450 1,350 Larger crop

Note: 1,000 Bales (480-lbs)


The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7 Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx Export Sales Report:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/ Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Economic Research Service:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops National Agricultural Statistics Service:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Questions may be directed to: James Johnson (202) 690-1546 ([email protected]) Graham Soley (202) 772-4235 ([email protected])


https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Argentina

-11000110000 2017/18

-39-250-255300-110 2018/19

-64-250-255000-390 2019/20

Austria

0-10-110000 2018/19

Benin

-1000001000000 2019/20

Brazil

-23000000-23005 2018/19

-53000030000-2300 2019/20

Burkina

-25000250000 2019/20

Cameroon

-25000250000 2019/20

China

-50000000-50000 2019/20

Colombia

4000-5-1000 2017/18

310010-54040 2018/19

310010010030 2019/20

Cote d'Ivoire

-50000500000 2019/20

Egypt

5020020070000 2018/19

2030030000500 2019/20

Estonia

010101000 2018/19

030303000 2019/20

Germany

-1-50-50-6000 2017/18

-8-200-20-7-340-10 2018/19

-8-100-10-10-200-80 2019/20


Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks


Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Greece

00001000100020 2019/20

Guatemala

810010018000 2018/19

815015015080 2019/20

India

-11000110000 2018/19

-161-2500-250100200-500-11100 2019/20

Indonesia

19000019000 2017/18

20000010190 2018/19

-80-1000-1000-2000200 2019/20

Italy

-1-100-100-11000 2018/19

-1-100-100-100-10 2019/20

Japan

050505000 2018/19

Malaysia

181000-8794000 2018/19

60002507501810 2019/20

Mali

-50000500000 2019/20

Pakistan

-15000050500-60000 2019/20

Peru

-200000-20-2 2017/18

120000014-22 2018/19

70000-105121 2019/20

Philippines

-30000-3000 2018/19

-3000000-30 2019/20

Poland

110102000 2017/18

0-10-11-1010 2018/19


Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks


Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Russia

-5-300-300-35000 2019/20

Slovakia

-10000-1000 2018/19

-1-10-10-10-10 2019/20

Slovenia

010101000 2018/19

020202000 2019/20

Sudan

-25000250000 2019/20

Tajikistan

45-300-30-150000 2018/19

45-250-252500450 2019/20

Turkey

-100100010000000 2018/19

020002000600-300-1000 2019/20

Turkmenistan

-100-250-25-250-15000 2019/20

United States

-9001212000-88800 2019/20

Uzbekistan

-1000001000000 2018/19

-2001000100000-1000 2019/20

World

World

10-40-4614-20-2 2017/18

-1746006052144-216107 2018/19

-2,889-10412-1161,1151,129-2,833-174121 2019/20


Table 01 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 MT)

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Oct

2019/20

Nov

2019/20

Production none

5,639 India 5,879 6,314 5,770 6,641 6,532

4,790 China 4,953 5,987 6,042 6,042 5,933

2,806 United States 3,738 4,555 3,999 4,726 4,532

1,289 Brazil 1,528 2,007 2,726 2,526 2,526

1,524 Pakistan 1,676 1,785 1,655 1,655 1,524

577 Turkey 697 871 806 893 827

827 Uzbekistan 811 840 713 653 653

3,484 Other 3,944 4,589 4,155 4,032 4,022

20,937 Total 23,227 26,951 25,865 27,166 26,549

USE Dom. Consumption none

7,838 China 8,382 8,927 8,600 8,600 8,600

5,389 India 5,302 5,258 5,225 5,389 5,334

2,243 Pakistan 2,243 2,373 2,330 2,330 2,330

1,372 Bangladesh 1,481 1,633 1,611 1,611 1,611

980 Vietnam 1,176 1,437 1,524 1,611 1,611

1,459 Turkey 1,426 1,622 1,502 1,502 1,546

675 Brazil 697 740 740 740 740

4,699 Other 4,589 4,738 4,657 4,694 4,680

24,654 Total 25,295 26,728 26,190 26,478 26,452

Imports none

959 China 1,096 1,243 2,099 2,068 2,068

1,002 Vietnam 1,197 1,524 1,502 1,633 1,633

1,388 Bangladesh 1,481 1,655 1,568 1,589 1,589

918 Turkey 801 876 762 697 827

718 Pakistan 533 740 621 675 784

640 Indonesia 738 766 664 718 675

233 India 596 365 392 348 392

1,858 Other 1,766 1,792 1,647 1,612 1,618

7,717 Total 8,208 8,962 9,254 9,341 9,587

Exports none

1,993 United States 3,248 3,544 3,214 3,592 3,592

939 Brazil 607 909 1,309 1,807 1,872

1,255 India 991 1,128 764 871 893

616 Australia 812 852 791 370 370

209 Greece 221 234 295 294 316

142 Benin 174 218 305 283 305

218 Mali 239 283 294 294 305

2,184 Other 1,948 1,848 2,015 1,832 1,933

7,555 Total 8,241 9,017 8,988 9,343 9,586

Ending Stocks none

12,345 China 9,998 8,272 7,766 7,238 7,129

1,534 India 1,716 2,009 2,180 2,912 2,877

1,243 Brazil 1,509 1,885 2,565 2,599 2,483

827 United States 599 914 1,056 1,524 1,328

569 Pakistan 504 616 543 527 494

330 Bangladesh 355 404 388 393 393

334 Turkey 333 387 347 380 380

2,446 Other 2,469 3,136 2,693 2,649 2,508

19,628 Total 17,481 17,623 17,539 18,222 17,593


Table 02 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 Bales)

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Oct

2019/20

Nov

2019/20

Production none

5,920 Brazil 7,020 9,220 12,520 11,600 11,600

22,000 China 22,750 27,500 27,750 27,750 27,250

25,900 India 27,000 29,000 26,500 30,500 30,000

7,000 Pakistan 7,700 8,200 7,600 7,600 7,000

2,650 Turkey 3,200 4,000 3,700 4,100 3,800

12,888 United States 17,170 20,923 18,367 21,705 20,817

3,800 Uzbekistan 3,725 3,860 3,275 3,000 3,000

16,004 Other 18,114 21,079 19,085 18,517 18,472

96,162 Total 106,679 123,782 118,797 124,772 121,939

USE Dom. Consumption none

6,300 Bangladesh 6,800 7,500 7,400 7,400 7,400

3,100 Brazil 3,200 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400

36,000 China 38,500 41,000 39,500 39,500 39,500

24,750 India 24,350 24,150 24,000 24,750 24,500

3,000 Indonesia 3,300 3,500 3,150 3,200 3,100

10,300 Pakistan 10,300 10,900 10,700 10,700 10,700

6,700 Turkey 6,550 7,450 6,900 6,900 7,100

3,450 United States 3,250 3,225 2,975 3,000 3,000

1,800 Uzbekistan 2,000 2,500 2,800 2,900 3,000

4,500 Vietnam 5,400 6,600 7,000 7,400 7,400

13,332 Other 12,527 12,536 12,464 12,459 12,393

113,232 Total 116,177 122,761 120,289 121,609 121,493

Imports none

6,375 Bangladesh 6,800 7,600 7,200 7,300 7,300

4,406 China 5,032 5,710 9,640 9,500 9,500

1,072 India 2,736 1,677 1,800 1,600 1,800

2,941 Indonesia 3,391 3,517 3,051 3,300 3,100

443 Malaysia 392 739 744 675 750

975 Mexico 1,000 925 850 850 850

3,300 Pakistan 2,450 3,400 2,850 3,100 3,600

1,275 Thailand 1,226 1,149 1,075 1,050 1,050

4,218 Turkey 3,679 4,024 3,499 3,200 3,800

4,600 Vietnam 5,500 7,000 6,900 7,500 7,500

5,839 Other 5,491 5,419 4,894 4,829 4,783

35,444 Total 37,697 41,160 42,503 42,904 44,033

Exports none

2,828 Australia 3,731 3,915 3,632 1,700 1,700

650 Benin 800 1,000 1,400 1,300 1,400

4,314 Brazil 2,789 4,174 6,014 8,300 8,600

1,080 Burkina 1,155 1,225 940 900 925

550 Cameroon 500 400 575 525 550

780 Cote d'Ivoire 625 620 895 850 900

959 Greece 1,017 1,076 1,355 1,350 1,450

5,764 India 4,550 5,182 3,511 4,000 4,100

1,000 Mali 1,100 1,300 1,350 1,350 1,400

9,153 United States 14,917 16,279 14,763 16,500 16,500

7,623 Other 6,668 6,243 6,845 6,138 6,503

34,701 Total 37,852 41,414 41,280 42,913 44,028

Ending Stocks none

1,515 Bangladesh 1,630 1,855 1,780 1,805 1,805

5,709 Brazil 6,929 8,657 11,780 11,935 11,405

56,698 China 45,919 37,993 35,670 33,245 32,745

7,044 India 7,880 9,225 10,014 13,375 13,214

2,615 Pakistan 2,315 2,830 2,495 2,420 2,270

1,533 Turkey 1,528 1,777 1,594 1,744 1,744

3,800 United States 2,750 4,200 4,850 7,000 6,100

11,234 Other 11,338 14,402 12,370 12,167 11,519

90,148 Total 80,289 80,939 80,553 83,691 80,802


Table 04 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Nov 2017/18 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)

Change in Production

2017/18

Prel.

2018/19 Oct Oct

Prel.

2018/19 Nov

Prel.

2018/19 Oct Nov Percent

2019/20 Proj.2019/20 Proj. 2019/20 Proj.

2017/18

33.73World 2.643.14-2.27-2.83121.9433.54 34.78 34.90 799 771 781 761 123.78 118.80 124.77

4.49United States 13.342.45-4.09-0.8920.824.13 5.06 5.06 1,014 968 934 895 20.92 18.37 21.71

29.23Total Foreign 0.690.69-1.89-1.95101.1229.41 29.72 29.84 766 744 755 738 102.86 100.43 103.07

none

Western Hemisphere

1.18 Brazil -7.35-0.920.000.0011.601.62 1.50 1.50 1,708 1,683 1,684 1,684 9.22 12.52 11.60

0.21 Mexico -8.93-0.160.000.001.580.24 0.23 0.23 1,617 1,555 1,529 1,529 1.56 1.74 1.58

0.32 Argentina -10.71-0.120.000.001.000.38 0.36 0.36 558 642 605 605 0.82 1.12 1.00

0.01 Paraguay 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 416 416 416 416 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02 Peru -9.57-0.016.250.010.090.02 0.02 0.02 1,118 1,077 1,025 1,028 0.08 0.09 0.08

0.01 Colombia 16.670.010.000.000.070.01 0.02 0.02 968 1,306 1,016 1,016 0.04 0.06 0.07

Africa

0.85 Burkina 11.760.100.000.000.950.63 0.60 0.60 307 294 345 345 1.20 0.85 0.95

0.71 Mali 17.320.220.000.001.490.73 0.78 0.78 432 381 419 419 1.40 1.27 1.49

0.33 Cote d'Ivoire 2.860.030.000.000.900.39 0.43 0.43 536 486 461 461 0.81 0.88 0.90

0.23 Cameroon -5.83-0.040.000.000.570.25 0.25 0.25 484 523 492 492 0.50 0.60 0.57

0.53 Benin 3.570.050.000.001.450.65 0.68 0.68 468 469 468 468 1.14 1.40 1.45

0.12 Chad 400.000.160.000.000.200.06 0.22 0.22 181 145 198 198 0.10 0.04 0.20

0.16 Togo 3.920.010.000.000.270.18 0.19 0.19 299 308 312 312 0.22 0.26 0.27

0.02 Senegal -13.790.000.000.000.030.02 0.02 0.02 359 301 320 320 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.09 Egypt -30.00-0.150.000.000.350.14 0.10 0.10 718 772 762 762 0.30 0.50 0.35

0.20 Zimbabwe -5.00-0.010.000.000.190.20 0.20 0.20 294 218 207 207 0.27 0.20 0.19

0.27 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.240.27 0.27 0.27 190 190 190 190 0.24 0.24 0.24

Asia Oceania

3.40 China -1.80-0.50-1.80-0.5027.253.50 3.45 3.45 1,761 1,726 1,751 1,720 27.50 27.75 27.75

12.60 India 13.213.50-1.64-0.5030.0012.60 12.90 13.00 501 458 515 502 29.00 26.50 30.50

2.70 Pakistan -7.89-0.60-7.89-0.607.002.30 2.50 2.50 661 719 662 610 8.20 7.60 7.60

0.13 Kazakhstan -13.04-0.050.000.000.300.13 0.12 0.12 523 587 558 558 0.30 0.35 0.30

0.19 Tajikistan 6.020.030.000.000.440.18 0.18 0.18 671 502 532 532 0.57 0.42 0.44

0.55 Turkmenistan 9.890.09-13.04-0.151.000.55 0.55 0.55 535 364 459 399 1.34 0.91 1.15

1.25 Uzbekistan -8.40-0.280.000.003.001.10 1.05 1.05 672 648 622 622 3.86 3.28 3.00

0.47 Turkey 2.700.10-7.32-0.303.800.52 0.56 0.56 1,853 1,549 1,594 1,477 4.00 3.70 4.10

0.53 Australia -45.45-1.000.000.001.200.38 0.17 0.17 1,972 1,261 1,537 1,537 4.80 2.20 1.20

0.03 Syria 0.000.000.000.000.140.03 0.03 0.03 1,161 1,219 1,219 1,219 0.16 0.14 0.14

0.25 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.700.24 0.24 0.24 634 635 635 635 0.73 0.70 0.70

Europe

0.23 Greece 9.930.146.900.101.550.25 0.25 0.27 1,157 1,253 1,263 1,250 1.22 1.41 1.45

1.68Others 2.310.090.000.003.771.84 1.89 1.89 420 435 434 434 3.24 3.68 3.77

Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation.


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 35030826536 Afghanistan 17

0 001211 Albania 1

30 00303500 Algeria 5

10 00152252 Angola 7

15 50005501,5311,000360 Argentina 481

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 1,7000352,7721,200170 Australia 1,037

15 00151800 Austria 3

0 300080470400135 Azerbaijan 90

40 00404800 Bahrain 8

7,300 0107,4009,21513544 Bangladesh 1,805

40 00404600 Belarus 6

30 100203600 Belgium-Luxembour 6

0 1,4000151,6781,450675 Benin 263

2 00101584 Bolivia 5

25 8,60003,40023,40511,6001,500 Brazil 11,405

25 003542102 Bulgaria 7

0 9250251,090950600 Burkina 140

75 50775994700240 Burma 214

1 001200 Cambodia 1

0 550020709565250 Cameroon 139

2 002200 Canada 0

0 3200443232 Central African Republic 12

0 175010261200220 Chad 76

0 000000 Chile 0

9,500 175039,50072,42027,2503,450 China 32,745

65 501301647015 Colombia 29

2 0017211530 Congo (Kinshasa) 4

42 00455711 Costa Rica 12

0 9000251,130900425 Cote d'Ivoire 205

0 000000 Croatia 0

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0

7 007900 Czech Republic 2

0 000000 Denmark 0


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

1 004534 Dominican Republic 1

60 00708693 Ecuador 16

500 250106301,104350100 Egypt 214

180 0018022411 El Salvador 44

15 00151800 Estonia 3

40 10029536025080 Ethiopia 55

40 50354800 France 8

90 1008010600 Germany 16

0 20010392816 Ghana 9

30 1,45025901,6451,550270 Greece 80

150 0015018732 Guatemala 37

0 1400171412 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

26 00303542 Honduras 5

5 500800 Hong Kong 3

3 300300 Hungary 0

1,800 4,100024,50041,81430,00013,000 India 13,214

3,100 503,1003,63533 Indonesia 530

300 0057572027580 Iran 145

35 0050731510 Iraq 23

0 000000 Ireland 0

2 400456435 Israel 12

160 5015518100 Italy 21

215 0021524900 Japan 34

0 245065443300117 Kazakhstan 133

15 0040582530 Kenya 18

95 001502055519 Korea, North 55

700 5070086100 Korea, South 156

0 1100012011018 Kyrgyzstan 10

7 106900 Latvia 2

5 005600 Lebanon 1

90 009011500 Lesotho 25

0 000000 Lithuania 0

5 005600 Macedonia 1

0 10020453020 Madagascar 15


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 75051499080 Malawi 69

750 55003751,29600 Malaysia 371

0 1,4000251,9611,490775 Mali 536

120 0012014100 Mauritius 21

850 450252,0003,1951,580225 Mexico 720

70 00658200 Moldova 17

35 00354311 Morocco 8

0 11005200115125 Mozambique 85

15 00151700 Netherlands 2

0 90112104 Nicaragua 2

0 6031495 Niger 5

10 300200314235270 Nigeria 84

3,600 1002510,70013,0957,0002,500 Pakistan 2,270

0 000000 Panama 0

8 15014362111 Paraguay 7

220 503003928518 Peru 87

65 00657821 Philippines 13

17 00172000 Poland 3

170 0017021100 Portugal 41

1 001200 Romania 1

100 0011012900 Russia 19

0 2500302517 Senegal 5

8 0081000 Serbia 2

3 500600 Singapore 1

1 001100 Slovakia 0

8 0081000 Slovenia 2

3 001011712 Somalia 1

50 16009049121545 South Africa 241

15 27502035830065 Spain 63

5 00101255 Sri Lanka 2

0 500075739600200 Sudan 164

0 000000 Sweden 0

2 002300 Switzerland 1

0 5006516414025 Syria 49

600 0060074400 Taiwan 144


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 375070746440180 Tajikistan 301

0 2000175700400500 Tanzania 325

1,050 0251,0251,22921 Thailand 179

0 250015342265185 Togo 77

20 003035102 Tunisia 5

3,800 35007,1009,1943,800560 Turkey 1,744

0 25008251,6291,000545 Turkmenistan 554

0 11001522512575 Uganda 100

5 005600 Ukraine 1

2 002300 United Kingdom 1

5 16,500723,00025,67220,8175,062 United States 6,100

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 25003,0004,3083,0001,050 Uzbekistan 1,058

15 00901208515 Venezuela 30

7,500 007,4008,69131 Vietnam 1,291

0 3025342818 Yemen 6

0 20005448210130 Zambia 243

0 1751030349190200 Zimbabwe 134

World

44,033 44,028202121,493246,525121,93934,903 World 80,802


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 807181436 Afghanistan 4

0 000001 Albania 0

7 007800 Algeria 1

2 003512 Angola 2

3 1090120333218360 Argentina 105

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 37008604261170 Australia 226

3 003400 Austria 1

0 6501710287135 Azerbaijan 20

9 0091000 Bahrain 2

1,589 021,6112,0062944 Bangladesh 393

9 0091000 Belarus 1


0 30503365316675 Benin 57

0 002324 Bolivia 1

5 1,87207405,0962,5261,500 Brazil 2,483

5 008922 Bulgaria 2

0 20105237207600 Burkina 30

16 10169216152240 Burma 47

0 000000 Cambodia 0

0 12004154123250 Cameroon 30

0 000000 Canada 0


0 38025744220 Chad 17

0 000000 Chile 0

2,068 3808,60015,7685,9333,450 China 7,129

14 1028361515 Colombia 6


9 00101201 Costa Rica 3

0 19605246196425 Cote d'Ivoire 45

0 000000 Croatia 0

2 003314 Cuba 0

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country


13 00151923 Ecuador 3

109 54213724076100 Egypt 47

39 00394901 El Salvador 10

3 003400 Estonia 1

9 2064785480 Ethiopia 12

9 1081000 France 2

20 20172300 Germany 3

0 4028616 Ghana 2

7 316520358337270 Greece 17

33 00334112 Guatemala 8

0 3004312 Guinea 1

1 002217 Haiti 0

6 007812 Honduras 1


1 100100 Hungary 0

392 89305,3349,1046,53213,000 India 2,877

675 1067579113 Indonesia 115

65 001251576080 Iran 32

8 001116310 Iraq 5

0 000000 Ireland 0

0 9011295 Israel 3

35 10343900 Italy 5

47 00475400 Japan 7

0 530149665117 Kazakhstan 29

3 00913530 Kenya 4

21 0033451219 Korea, North 12

152 1015218700 Korea, South 34

0 2400262418 Kyrgyzstan 2

2 001200 Latvia 0

1 001100 Lebanon 0

20 00202500 Lesotho 5



0 20410720 Madagascar 3


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 1601322080 Malawi 15

163 12008228200 Malaysia 81

0 30505427324775 Mali 117

26 00263100 Mauritius 5

185 985435696344225 Mexico 157

15 00141800 Moldova 4

8 008901 Morocco 2

0 24014425125 Mozambique 19



0 101325 Niger 1

2 70446851270 Nigeria 18

784 2252,3302,8511,5242,500 Pakistan 494

0 000000 Panama 0

2 3038511 Paraguay 2

48 1065851918 Peru 19


4 004400 Poland 1

37 00374600 Portugal 9

0 000000 Romania 0

22 00242800 Russia 4

0 5007517 Senegal 1

2 002200 Serbia 0


0 000000 Slovakia 0

2 002200 Slovenia 0

1 0022212 Somalia 0

11 350201074745 South Africa 52

3 6004786565 Spain 14

1 002315 Sri Lanka 0

0 109016161131200 Sudan 36

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 11014363025 Syria 11

131 0013116200 Taiwan 31


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 8201516296180 Tajikistan 66

0 4403815287500 Tanzania 71

229 0522326801 Thailand 39

0 54037458185 Togo 17

4 007822 Tunisia 1

827 7601,5462,002827560 Turkey 380

0 540180355218545 Turkmenistan 121

0 2403492775 Uganda 22

1 001100 Ukraine 0


1 3,592166535,5894,5325,062 United States 1,328

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 5406539386531,050 Uzbekistan 230

3 0020261915 Venezuela 7

1,633 001,6111,89211 Vietnam 281

0 1057618 Yemen 1

0 44019846130 Zambia 53

0 38277641200 Zimbabwe 29

World

9,587 9,5864426,45253,67526,54934,903 World 17,593


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 35030826536 Afghanistan 17

0 001211 Albania 1

30 00303500 Algeria 5

10 00152252 Angola 7

5 54505751,6361,120380 Argentina 516

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 3,6320355,2392,200380 Australia 1,572

15 10141800 Austria 3

0 375075520390130 Azerbaijan 70

40 00404800 Bahrain 8

7,200 0107,4009,19013544 Bangladesh 1,780

42 00404600 Belarus 6


0 1,4000151,6431,400650 Benin 228

2 00101584 Bolivia 5

17 6,01403,40021,19412,5201,620 Brazil 11,780

25 003643102 Bulgaria 7

0 9400251,105850630 Burkina 140

75 50775999700240 Burma 219

1 001200 Cambodia 1

0 575020739600250 Cameroon 144

2 002200 Canada 0


0 1000101714060 Chad 61

0 000000 Chile 0

9,640 213039,50075,38327,7503,500 China 35,670

84 051451796010 Colombia 29


45 00455911 Costa Rica 14

0 8950251,150875392 Cote d'Ivoire 230

0 000000 Croatia 0

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country


60 00708793 Ecuador 17

520 350106001,214500141 Egypt 254

177 0017021311 El Salvador 43

14 00131600 Estonia 3

30 8027535324377 Ethiopia 70

36 20374700 France 8

86 1308010900 Germany 16

0 15010362816 Ghana 11

31 1,35525901,5351,410245 Greece 65

148 0014517932 Guatemala 34

0 1400171412 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

25 00293442 Honduras 5


3 300300 Hungary 0

1,800 3,511024,00037,52526,50012,600 India 10,014

3,051 603,1503,68833 Indonesia 532

300 0057572027580 Iran 145

35 0050731510 Iraq 23

0 000000 Ireland 0

2 450460425 Israel 11

159 5015518100 Italy 21

230 0023526900 Japan 34

0 275065483345128 Kazakhstan 143

15 0040582530 Kenya 18

95 001502055519 Korea, North 55

781 7080096800 Korea, South 161

0 1000011010518 Kyrgyzstan 10

7 106900 Latvia 2

5 005600 Lebanon 1

85 008511000 Lesotho 25



0 10020453020 Madagascar 15


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 70051349070 Malawi 59

744 31303501,20900 Malaysia 546

0 1,3500251,8461,270725 Mali 471

120 0012014100 Mauritius 21

850 500251,9503,2401,735243 Mexico 765

60 00607200 Moldova 12

29 00354211 Morocco 7

0 11005200130125 Mozambique 85



0 6031495 Niger 5

10 300200299235270 Nigeria 69

2,850 602510,70013,2807,6002,300 Pakistan 2,495

0 000000 Panama 0

2 11014322111 Paraguay 7

214 203003899419 Peru 87


16 10162000 Poland 3

174 4017021500 Portugal 41

1 001200 Romania 1

150 2016019100 Russia 29

0 2502322921 Senegal 5

8 0081000 Serbia 2


1 001100 Slovakia 0

7 007900 Slovenia 2

3 001011712 Somalia 1

68 13808945322844 South Africa 226

10 32202038530065 Spain 43

3 00101255 Sri Lanka 2

0 425075639500180 Sudan 139

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 9006517914025 Syria 24

592 0060074400 Taiwan 144


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 350055711415180 Tajikistan 306

0 2000175675425500 Tanzania 300

1,075 1251,0751,27821 Thailand 177

0 225015317255180 Togo 77

20 003035102 Tunisia 5

3,499 48206,9008,9763,700520 Turkey 1,594

0 15008001,579910545 Turkmenistan 629

0 11001522512075 Uganda 100

3 003400 Ukraine 1


3 14,763-182,97522,57018,3674,130 United States 4,850

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 70002,8004,8083,2751,100 Uzbekistan 1,308

12 001001208515 Venezuela 20

6,900 007,0008,18831 Vietnam 1,188

0 2025332818 Yemen 6

0 15605399200125 Zambia 238

0 1751030374200200 Zimbabwe 159

World

42,503 41,280117120,289242,239118,79733,539 World 80,553


(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseImportsProductio

n

Country

0 48071436 Afghanistan

0 000001 Albania

7 100700 Algeria

2 200312 Angola

1 1121190125244380 Argentina

0 000000 Armenia

0 34279108479380 Australia

3 100300 Austria

0 158201685130 Azerbaijan

9 200900 Bahrain

1,568 388021,6112944 Bangladesh

9 100900 Belarus

7 120400 Belgium-Luxembour

0 5030503305650 Benin

0 100224 Bolivia

4 2,5651,30907402,7261,620 Brazil

5 200822 Bulgaria

0 3020505185630 Burkina

16 4810169152240 Burma

0 000000 Cambodia

0 3112504131250 Cameroon

0 000000 Canada

0 3700732 Central African Republic

0 132202960 Chad

0 000000 Chile

2,099 7,7664608,6006,0423,500 China

18 601321310 Colombia

0 1004330 Congo (Kinshasa)

10 3001001 Costa Rica

0 5019505191392 Cote d'Ivoire

0 000000 Croatia

2 000314 Cuba

0 000000 Cyprus

2 000200 Czech Republic

0 000000 Denmark


(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


n

Country

0 000114 Dominican Republic

13 4001523 Ecuador

113 55762131109141 Egypt

39 9003701 El Salvador

3 100300 Estonia

7 1520605377 Ethiopia

8 200800 France

19 3301700 Germany

0 2302616 Ghana

7 14295520307245 Greece

32 7003212 Guatemala

0 1300312 Guinea

1 000217 Haiti

5 100612 Honduras

2 110000 Hong Kong

1 010000 Hungary

392 2,18076405,2255,77012,600 India

664 1161068613 Indonesia

65 32001256080 Iran

8 50011310 Iraq

0 000000 Ireland

0 2100195 Israel

35 5103400 Italy

50 7005100 Japan

0 316001475128 Kazakhstan

3 4009530 Kenya

21 1200331219 Korea, North

170 352017400 Korea, South

0 222002318 Kyrgyzstan

2 000100 Latvia

1 000100 Lebanon

19 5001900 Lesotho

0 000000 Lithuania

1 000100 Macedonia

0 3204720 Madagascar


(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


n

Country

0 1315012070 Malawi

162 1196807600 Malaysia

0 10329405277725 Mali

26 5002600 Mauritius

185 1671095425378243 Mexico

13 3001300 Moldova

6 200801 Morocco

0 19240128125 Mozambique

3 000300 Netherlands

0 020024 Nicaragua

0 110125 Niger

2 15704451270 Nigeria

621 5431352,3301,6552,300 Pakistan

0 000000 Panama

0 2203511 Paraguay

47 1900652019 Peru

13 2001401 Philippines

3 100300 Poland

38 9103700 Portugal

0 000000 Romania

33 6003500 Russia

0 1500621 Senegal

2 000200 Serbia

0 100000 Singapore

0 000000 Slovakia

2 000200 Slovenia

1 0002212 Somalia

15 49300195044 South Africa

2 970046565 Spain

1 000215 Sri Lanka

0 3093016109180 Sudan

0 000000 Sweden

0 000000 Switzerland

0 5200143025 Syria

129 310013100 Taiwan


(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


n

Country

0 677601290180 Tajikistan

0 654403893500 Tanzania

234 390523401 Thailand

0 17490356180 Togo

4 100722 Tunisia

762 34710501,502806520 Turkey

0 137330174198545 Turkmenistan

0 2224032675 Uganda

1 000100 Ukraine

0 000000 United Kingdom

1 1,0563,214-46483,9994,130 United States

0 000000 Uruguay

0 28515206107131,100 Uzbekistan

3 400221915 Venezuela

1,502 259001,52411 Vietnam

0 1005618 Yemen

0 52340144125 Zambia

0 35382744200 Zimbabwe

World

9,254 17,5398,9882526,19025,86533,539 World


Table 09: World Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Beginning

Stocks

Area

Harvested

Production Imports Total

Supply

Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

World

3631,05785,88064285,23833,481150,41833,58284,22233,83132,614 1988/89

2924,98487,13923486,90531,357143,48032,70379,72031,69631,057 1989/90

3227,47385,69417085,52429,560142,72730,57887,16533,15324,984 1990/91

4336,97186,55636886,18828,204151,73129,02495,23434,75827,473 1991/92

4034,51086,4006386,33725,435146,34527,06782,30732,64336,971 1992/93

3327,83385,70314385,56026,620140,15627,96777,67930,71834,510 1993/94

3832,02084,292-33084,62228,118144,43030,30086,29732,25027,833 1994/95

4740,13585,396-54485,94027,396152,92727,00493,90335,92032,020 1995/96

5144,63987,351-58587,93626,777158,76728,57990,05333,74040,135 1996/97

5749,47386,686-58187,26726,777162,93625,92992,36833,79744,639 1997/98

6252,85883,651-1,11484,76523,517160,02624,48086,07332,88549,473 1998/99

5651,14490,490-60291,09227,126168,76027,99387,90932,35052,858 1999/00

5449,56290,724-1,42492,14826,156166,44226,20989,08932,01151,144 2000/01

5854,68093,601-78194,38229,081177,36229,29798,50333,71749,562 2001/02

4947,88297,608-80498,41230,400175,89030,18891,02230,77954,680 2002/03

4948,37697,179-90998,08833,152178,70734,15096,67532,25847,882 2003/04

5660,977107,960-1,245109,20534,949203,88633,965121,54535,75948,376 2004/05

5361,906115,178-1,793116,97144,922222,00644,668116,36134,49460,977 2005/06

5162,987122,493-1,715124,20837,416222,89638,305122,68534,70561,906 2006/07

5061,878121,743-2,094123,83738,868222,48939,453120,04932,87862,987 2007/08

5661,453108,860-1,436110,29630,207200,52030,573108,06930,62261,878 2008/09

3946,179119,482-12119,49435,804201,46536,928103,08430,18761,453 2009/10

4349,288115,611119115,49234,875199,77436,297117,29833,82646,179 2010/11

6972,055103,906-210104,11645,994221,95545,423127,24436,05649,288 2011/12

8389,336107,900-343108,24346,350243,58647,630123,90134,31672,055 2012/13

9199,904109,99892109,90640,997250,89941,204120,35932,85589,336 2013/14

95106,739112,499268112,23135,948255,18636,065119,21733,86599,904 2014/15

8090,148113,496264113,23234,701238,34535,44496,16230,752106,739 2015/16

6980,289116,383206116,17737,852234,52437,697106,67929,81390,148 2016/17

6680,939122,878117122,76141,414245,23141,160123,78233,72580,289 2017/18

6780,553120,406117120,28941,280242,23942,503118,79733,53980,939 2018/19

6780,802121,695202121,49344,028246,52544,033121,93934,90380,553 2019/20


Table 10: United States Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks


Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

United States

517,0921657,7826,14821,187515,4115,7716944,835 1988/89

183,000-1638,7597,69419,290212,1967,0926883,860 1989/90

142,344-2858,6577,79318,509415,5053,0007114,748 1990/91

233,70489,6136,64619,9711317,6142,3447315,245 1991/92

304,662-19010,2505,20119,923116,2183,7047854,501 1992/93

203,530-810,4186,86220,802616,1344,6626795,173 1993/94

132,650-3811,1989,40223,2122019,6623,5307945,391 1994/95

142,6092710,6477,67520,95840817,9002,6506026,478 1995/96

223,971-811,1266,86521,95440318,9422,6097915,216 1996/97

213,8874111,3497,50022,7771318,7933,9717545,425 1997/98

273,939-39410,4014,29818,24443913,9183,8877014,324 1998/99

233,91514510,1946,75021,0049716,9683,9396805,433 1999/00

386,000-4838,8626,74021,1191617,1883,9157085,282 2000/01

407,4481807,69611,00026,3242120,3036,0007905,596 2001/02

285,3851667,27311,90024,7246717,2097,4487465,025 2002/03

173,4502116,26613,75823,6854518,2555,3858184,858 2003/04

265,4951086,69114,43626,7302923,2513,4509585,284 2004/05

266,069-2005,87117,67329,4132823,8905,4959315,586 2005/06

539,4793034,93512,95927,6761921,5886,0699125,152 2006/07

5510,0514294,58413,63428,6981219,2079,4799854,245 2007/08

386,337-2633,54113,26122,876012,82510,0519123,063 2008/09

192,947-143,55012,03718,520012,1836,3378703,049 2009/10

142,6001823,90014,37621,058918,1022,9479104,330 2010/11

223,350-1723,30011,71418,1921915,5732,6008863,829 2011/12

233,8003483,50013,02620,6741017,3143,3509993,772 2012/13

172,3502923,55010,53016,7221312,9093,8009213,051 2013/14

253,6502103,57511,24618,6811216,3192,3509393,785 2014/15

303,8001683,4509,15316,5713312,8883,6508593,268 2015/16

152,750603,25014,91720,977717,1703,8009723,848 2016/17

224,200-283,22516,27923,676320,9232,7501,0144,492 2017/18

274,850-182,97514,76322,570318,3674,2009684,130 2018/19

316,100723,00016,50025,672520,8174,8508955,062 2019/20


Table 11: Foreign Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks


Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Total Foreign

23,96547777,45627,333129,23133,57768,81126,84351728,996 1988/89

21,98439778,14623,663124,19032,70167,52423,96552827,836 1989/90

25,12945576,86721,767124,21830,57471,66021,98454928,405 1990/91

33,26736076,57521,558131,76029,01177,62025,12957329,513 1991/92

29,84825376,08720,234126,42227,06666,08933,26751128,142 1992/93

24,30315175,14219,758119,35427,96161,54529,84852525,545 1993/94

29,370-29273,42418,716121,21830,28066,63524,30354026,859 1994/95

37,526-57175,29319,721131,96926,59676,00329,37056229,442 1995/96

40,668-57776,81019,912136,81328,17671,11137,52654328,524 1996/97

45,586-62275,91819,277140,15925,91673,57540,66856528,372 1997/98

48,919-72074,36419,219141,78224,04172,15545,58655028,561 1998/99

47,229-74780,89820,376147,75627,89670,94148,91957426,917 1999/00

43,562-94183,28619,416145,32326,19371,90147,22958626,729 2000/01

47,232-96186,68618,081151,03829,27678,20043,56260528,121 2001/02

42,497-97091,13918,500151,16630,12173,81347,23262425,754 2002/03

44,926-1,12091,82219,394155,02234,10578,42042,49762327,400 2003/04

55,482-1,353102,51420,513177,15633,93698,29444,92670230,475 2004/05

55,837-1,593111,10027,249192,59344,64092,47155,48269628,908 2005/06

53,508-2,018119,27324,457195,22038,286101,09755,83774529,553 2006/07

51,827-2,523119,25325,234193,79139,441100,84253,50876728,633 2007/08

55,116-1,173106,75516,946177,64430,57395,24451,82775227,559 2008/09

43,2322115,94423,767182,94536,92890,90155,11672927,138 2009/10

46,688-63111,59220,499178,71636,28899,19643,23273229,496 2010/11

68,705-38100,81634,280203,76345,404111,67146,68875432,227 2011/12

85,536-691104,74333,324222,91247,620106,58768,70576030,544 2012/13

97,554-200106,35630,467234,17741,191107,45085,53678529,804 2013/14

103,08958108,65624,702236,50536,053102,89897,55474530,080 2014/15

86,34896109,78225,548221,77435,41183,274103,08966027,484 2015/16

77,539146112,92722,935213,54737,69089,50986,34875125,965 2016/17

76,739145119,53625,135221,55541,157102,85977,53976629,233 2017/18

75,703135117,31426,517219,66942,500100,43076,73974429,409 2018/19

74,702130118,49327,528220,85344,028101,12275,70373829,841 2019/20


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