2019 SW Monsoon Rainfall:

Seasonal Forecast Outlook

Summary

Currently weak El Nino conditions are prevailing

over Pacific and these conditions are likely to

continue during the monsoon season with reduced

intensity.

Positive IOD conditions are likely over Indian Ocean

which is likely to compensate negative impact of

weak El Nino conditions on the monsoon.

The monsoon season rainfall over the country is

likely to be normal (96% of LPA) with rainfall during

second half is likely to be better than the first half.

25/23/2019

IMD Rainfall Forecast 2019 SW monsoonIssued on 15th April 2019

Summary of the Forecast Assessment

a) Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a

whole is likely to be near normal.

b) b) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be

96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the

season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

c) Weak El Niño conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced

intensity in the later part of the season. The sea surface temperature (SST) conditions

over the Pacific (El Niño/La Niña) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which

are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon are being continuously

monitored.

Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during

the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the

ensuing kharif season.

IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 Forecast during the first week

of June, 2019.

23-May-19

SASCOF-14 Consensus Forecast 2019 JJASIssued on 23rd April 2019

Status of Some Important Factors that

Having Influence on Monsoon

Latest Global SST Departures (oC) and

ENSO Conditions over Pacific

Currently , equatorial SSTs are above average across the central and eastern Pacific

Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, SSTs were below average near Indonesia and in parts of the far

eastern Pacific. Weak El Niño conditions (SST anomalies between 0.50 C & 1.00 C) are

prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Data source

CPC, USA

The latest weekly SST

departures are:Niño 4 0.7ºC

Niño 3.4 0.9ºC

Niño 3 0.9ºC

Niño 1+2 0.1ºC

Latest Global SST Departures (oC) and

ENSO Conditions over Pacific

Data source CPC,

USA (13th May’19)The latest weekly SST

departures are:

Niño 4 0.7ºCNiño 3.4 0.5ºCNiño 3 0.5ºCNiño 1+2 0.1ºC

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across most of the

Pacific Ocean. SSTs were near-to-below average around Indonesia.

23-May-19

ENSO Forecast - MMCFS: Apr IC (21 ens)

Indian Ocean Dipole: Predictive Ocean Atmosphere

Model for Australia (POAMA)

IOD forecast: indicates a positive IOD may form during the monsoon season.

ENSO forecast: Indicators have been close to El Niño thresholds over the past several months, but

signs have emerged of a weakening of these patterns. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO outlook has

been downgraded to El Niño WATCH. Chance of El Niño developing in 2019 is approximately 50%.

BoM Probability Forecast : Nino 3.4 & IOD:

15 May Fcst

Monthly Snow Cover Area - 2019Departure from normal

December 2018 January 2019

Data source:

RUTGERS UNIVERSITY

The snow-covered area over NH as well as Eurasia was normal during Dec 2018, Jan & Feb 2019. Over

Eurasia, below normal snow cover area was observed during March 2019. NH snow cover during winter

and spring has a general negative relationship with the subsequent Asian summer monsoon.

February 2019 March 2019

Rainfall Monitoring and Prediction: Guidance for Action

Categories of Thunderstorms for impact

based warning purposes: new Criteria

(a) No Thunderstorm : Green colour

(b) Light Thunderstorm : Yellow colour Warning: Thunderstorms with

maximum surface wind speed less than 40 kmph (In gusts).

(c) Moderate Thunderstorm: Orange colour Warning: Thunderstorms

with maximum surface wind speed 41 – 61 kmph (In gusts).

(c) Severe Thunderstorm: Red colour Warning: Thunderstorms with

maximum surface wind speed 62 -87 kmph (In gusts).

(d) Very Severe Thunderstorms: Red colour Warning: Thunderstorms

with or without rain with maximum surface wind speed greater than 88

kmph (in gusts).

Thunderstorm Forecasting

Short to Medium range forecast:

(Lead time/validity of 1 to 5 days)

Now Casting:

(Lead time/validity of 3- 6 hours)

Short to medium range forecast can provide the potential

areas with probability of occurrence,

Nowcasting provides more specific information about the

place/time of occurrence

Flow of information between the Nowcast Division of

NWFC and Nowcast units at MCs and RMCs

NWFC 5 day forecast Bulletin

48 hour Severe Weather

Advisory from Nowcast Unit

3 hourly Nowcast from

Nowcast centres at MCs

SMS/WhatsappNowcast Warning

Bulletin by e-mailWebsite

District Collector,

SDMA, NDMA,

Media, Power

sector

District Collector,

SDMA, NDMA,

Media, Power

sector

Nowcast

Warnings

Webpage

GKMS

Monitoring Products• Direct Observation

• AWS/ARG (Pressure, temperature, dew point, RH, Rainfall)

• METARS/SPECI(Pressure, temperature, dew point, RH, Rainfall, Wx)

• Conventional observation(Pressure, temperature, dew point, RH, Rainfall)

• Lightning Detection Sensors

• Integrated Precipitable Water Vapour from 25 stations

• Satellite

• Every 15 min Vis, IR, IR CTT imageries, animation, RAPID Tool

• Temperature, Humidity Profile, Derived thermodynamic indices half hrly

• Dynamical parameters (vorticity, Divergence, Convergence, Wind Shear half

hourly and CMV, AMV

• RADAR Reflectivity, Precipitation and wind

Satellite Based tools

Lightning Intensity and amplitudeDust storm Thunderstorm

RAPID for satellite cloud analysis microphysics product for cloud classification

METEOSAT-8 Himawari-8

INSAT 3D

RGB

Thermodynamical products

GNSS

RADAR based products

21

Reflectivity Winds

HTTP://DDGMUI.IMD.GOV.IN/RADAR/LEAF

LET-MAP-CSV-MASTER/RMCCNI.HTML

RADAR with GIS overlay

RADAR reflectivity + lightning

Model Based nowcast with verificationWRF model based 3 hourly lightning forecast

WRF model based

accumulated

24 hr lightning

Actual lightning

General Products

GFS, NCUM,WRF,

NCUM-R,

GEFS, UM-EPS,

ECMWF,

MeteoFrance,

JMA, NCEP-GFS

Specific Products

Extreme Forecast Index:

ECMWF GFS

WRF

Thermodynamic

products and

indices for day 1

forecast

Tephigram

location specific suitable

thermodynamic

indices

Actual lightning

Dissemination: • The district level warning are communicated to

• state control room,

• all district collectors and

• press and electronic media including AIR, DD News, DD National and

DD Kissan.

• The warnees list being updated (e-mail id for sending e-mails and

mobile nos. for SMS & Whatsapp messages).

• SMS will be disseminated utilizing NIC SMS facility

(https://quicksms.emailgov.in/#/home) /C-DAC mobile Sewa.

• Those MCs/RMCs who have not started SMS service have been

instructed to initiate action for implementation

• In case of expected Thunderstorm activity, the station in-charge will

contact the state authority on phone and brief about the expected

weather.

• A briefing register to be maintained for the above purpose.

• In case of any change in the already issued warning contents, the

same should be communicated immediately to all warnees and a brief

orally to the state authorities

WML: WELL MARKED

D: DEPRESSION

DD: DEEP DEPRESSION

CS: CYCLONIC STORM

SCS: SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

VSCS: VERY SEVERE

CYCLONIC STORM

ESCS: EXTREMELY SEVERE

CYCLONIC STORM

OBSERVED TRACK

OBSERVED TRACK FANI

(26 APRIL-04 MAY)

LIFE HISTORY:

• LPA: 25/0530

• Depression: 26/0830

• DD: 27/0530

• CS FANI: 27/1130.

• SCS: 29/1730

• VSCS: 30/0530

• ESCS: 30/1730

• Crossed Odisha coast close

to Puri(near 19.75N

/85.70E) between 0800 to

1000 hrs IST of 3rd May

with wind speed of 175-185

gusting to 205 kmph.

• VSCS: 03/1130

• SCS: 03/2330

• CS: 04/0530

• DD: 04/0830

• D: 04/1130

• WML: 04/2330

DATE/TIME

IN IST

Monitoring of ESCS FANICDR PARADEEP AT THE TIME OF CROSSING OF “FANI”

0832 HRS IST OF 03rd May 2019

Track, Intensity & Landfall Forecast

• First information issued at 1430 IST of 29th April (about 90 hrs prior to

landfall) indicated that the system would move northwestwards till 1st

May and recurve north-northeastwards towards Odisha coast.

• It was further indicated at 2100 hrs IST of 29th that the system would

cross Odisha coast around Puri in the early morning of 4th May (about

84 hrs prior to landfall) as an extremely severe cyclonic storm with

maximum sustained wind speed of 160-170 gusting to 190 kmph.

Track, Intensity & Landfall Forecast

• The bulletin issued at 1520 hrs IST of 30th indicated that the system

would cross Odisha coast between Gopalpur and Chandbali, to the

south of Puri around 3rd May afternoon with wind speed of 175-185

kmph gusting to 205 kmph (about 66 hrs prior to landfall).

Track, Intensity & Landfall Forecast• The bulletin issued at 2030 hrs IST of 1st May (36 hrs prior to actual

landfall) about indicated that the system would cross Odisha coast

between Gopalpur and Chandbali, around Puri during 3rd May

afternoon. The time of landfall was revised to 3rd May forenoon at 1600

IST of 2nd May.

MSW(knot)/kmph) Impact Action

28-33 /(51–62 ) Very rough seas. Total suspension of fishing operations

34-49/(63-91) High to very high seas Total suspension of fishing operations

50-63/(92-117) Very High seas Total suspension of fishing operations

≥ 64 (≥118) Phenomenal Total suspension of fishing operations

II. Track, Intensity & Landfall Forecast 72 hrs before

landfall•Landfall point and intensity at the time of

landfall was correctly predicted at least

72 hrs in advance.

•The forecast issued on 30th April, 1st &

2nd May were almost same as actual

track as shown in Fig below

Observed & forecast

track based on 0530

IST/30th April (72 hrs prior

to landfall) of ESCS FANI

indicating accurate

landfall prediction near

Puri)

DATE/TIME

IN IST

STORM SURGE GUIDANCE ASSOCIATED WITH ESCS

“FANI” (BASED on IC – 02 May 1730 hr IST)

02/1730

IST

02/2330

IST

03/0530

IST

03/1130

IST

Warnings issued by IMD Cyclone Watch: Cyclone watch for Odisha and adjoining AP coasts

was issued at 1430 IST of 29th April when the system was a CS over

southwest BoB (90 hrs prior to landfall). Extended for West Bengal

coast at 1200 hrs IST of 30th April.

Cyclone Alert: 66 hrs prior to actual landfall issued for Odisha, West

Bengal & Srikakulam and Vijayanagaram Districts of Andhra Pradesh

coasts in the update issued at 1520 hrs IST of 30th April.

Cyclone Warning: Issued on 1st May 2030 IST (about 36 hrs prior to

actual landfall) for Odisha, West Bengal and Srikakulam,

Vijayanagaram & Visakhapatnam Districts of Andhra Pradesh Coasts:

Post landfall Outlook for interior districts of south coastal Odisha,

north Odisha and interior districts of Gangetic West Bengal indicating

expected winds, damage and action suggested after landfall of the

system was issued at 2030 IST of 2nd May (about 12 hrs prior to actual

landfall).

Adverse weather warning bulletins: The tropical cyclone forecasts

alongwith expected adverse weather like heavy rain, gale wind and

storm surge was issued with every three hourly update to central, state

and district level disaster management agencies including MHA NDRF,

NDMA for all concerned states along the east coast of India including

Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Assam &

Bulletin

type

No. of

Bulletins

Issued to

National

Bulletin

65 1. IMD’s website, RSMC New Delhi website

2. FAX and e-mail to Control Room Ministry of Home Affairs &

National Disaster Management Authority, Cabinet Secretariat,

Minister of Science & Technology, Headquarter Integrated Defence

Staff, Director General Doordarshan, All India Radio, National

Disaster Response Force, Chief Secretary-Kerala, Tamil Nadu,

Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya,

Arunachal Pradesh .

RSMC

Bulletin

64 1. IMD’s website

2. WMO/ESCAP member countries through GTS and E-mail.

GMDSS

Bulletins

33 1. IMD website, RSMC New Delhi website

2. Transmitted through WMO Information System (WIS) to Joint

WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Ocean and Marine

Meteorology (JCOMM)

Tropical

Cyclone

Advisory

Centre

Bulletin

30 1. Met Watch offices in Asia Pacific regions and middle east

through GTS to issue Significant Meteorological information for

International Civil Aviation

2. WMO’s Aviation Disaster Risk Reduction (ADRR), Hong Kong

through ftp

3. RSMC website

Bulletin

type

No. of

Bulletins

Issued to

Warnings

through

SMS

Daily SMS to disaster managers at national level and concerned states

(every time when there was change in intensity). A total of

4,64,043 SMS were sent by IMD to General Public & Disaster

Managers. In addition SMS to fishermen were sent by INCOIS

and Farmers through Kisaan Portal.

Warnings

through

Social

Media

Daily Cyclone Warnings were uploaded on Social networking sites

(Face book and Tweeter) since inception to weakening of system

(every time when there was change in intensity). Hourly updates

on facebook & tweet from 2nd evening onwards till the system

maintained the intensity of cyclone.

Press

Release

12 Disaster Managers, Media persons by email and uploaded on

website

Press

Briefings

Daily Regular briefing daily

Hourly

Update

36 During 2nd and 3rd May 2019

Soil Moisture

(as on 17th Oct., 2018) Zone Monitoring Status

All India • 104% of the live storage of corresponding to 2017• 100% of average storage of last ten years

• Storage during 2018 is better than the corresponding period of 2017and is also better than the average storage of last ten years

Storage during 2018 is less than the corresponding period of 2017but is better than the average storage of last ten years

Storage during 2018 is less than the storage of 2017 and is also less than the average storage of last ten years

Storage during 2018 is better than the storage of 2017 and is also better than the average storage of last ten years

Storage during 2018 is better than the storage of 2017 and is less than the average storage of last ten years

Northern Region

(Him., Pun., Raj.)

Eastern Region

(Jhar., Odisha, WB, Tripura)

WesternRegion

(Guj., Maha.)

Central Region

(UP, UK, MP, Cha.)

Southern Region (AP,

TEL, Kar, Ker, TN)

Reservoir Status by CWC (as on 18th Oct., 2018)

Southwest Monsoon heavy rainfall scores (2002-18) 5 year running average

Status of implementation - DAMU

637

622

600

593

42.0

22.71

5.06

3.40

Increase in disseminationof Agromet advisories formillions of farmer from2012 to 2018

Increase in issue ofDistrict Level advisoriesfrom 2012 to 2017-18

One in nine family

connected in

the country.

M Kisan PPP mode

Mass Media

Whatsapp

Panchayati Raj

Digital India

Extension Agencies

Strengthening of Existing extension agencies:

• KVKs,

• ATMA,

• Kisan Call Centres,

• NGOs,

• Extension offices of Dept. of Agriculture

Preparation of value added

medium range forecast at

district level Tuesday

Friday

NWP productsState Met Centre (SAMC)

Issuing State Level Composite Bulletin

Value addition

Agromet Field Units(AMFUs)

Dissemination of Agromet Advisory through Multi-Channel Dissemination System

Parameters

Rainfall, Wind speed & direction Maximum temperature, Relative humidity, Minimum temperature, Cloud cover.

Agromet

Advisory

42 million

farmers

Receiving

SMS

Conducting State Level Meeting

Issuing District Level Bulletin

• In all total 637 bulletins in 14

languages &uploading in the

website of Agrimet Division,IMD

(http://imdagrimet.gov.in)

• Conducting Farmer Awareness

Programme

Also Brochures

for Awareness

were completed

for 14 languages

From Composite State Level

Bulletin, Agrimet Division,

IMD preparing National AAS

bulletin

Organised different training

programmes

Established feedback

mechanism

Economic benefits

from savings in farm

inputs.

Increased farm

productivity

Farmer Portal

Kisan

Sanchar

Low FFG

Values High Risk of Flash Flood

Potential

MAPSERVER Visualises multiple outputs/ forecasts of the micro level

catchment areas at the same time which identifies flash flood prone zones.

Land Surface

model Output

(Sacromental Soil

Moisture Model)

FFG 01

Verified by

Mumbai Radar

Data on 28th &

29th August 2017

146 Sub Basins

28780Micro watersheds

WRF

FCST

MAP

Partnership with the State Governments

to build

Impact Based Forecasting

&

Risk based Multi-hazard Early Waring Systems

TN SMART• Northeast monsoon

received as of date -

90 to 95%

• Status of Water

bodies - 90 to 100%

• Rainfall forecast -

Extremely heavy

rainfall

TNSMART FRAMEWORK

Historical/Near real-time/real-

time

IMD Weather Forecast

Risk

communication

Feedback

E-mail

SMS

Social Media

App

Response to control center

through Mobile App

GIS base

layers

Emergency Response

data (NDEM,

SAHANA)

1. Hazard thresholds

2. Forecast validation

3. Hazard modeling

4. Forecast based risk

identification

5. Emergency

response planning

TNSMART

6. Risk communication

7. Response tracking

Disaster Warning

Announcement

System

Policy for Risk Reduction

TNSDMA EOC

Community (End users)

Policy Makers

Operational Users

(Officers of IRS)

3 Tier user application of TNSMART

Policy

Makers

Risk and Resource

Management

Risk avoidance

Operational

Users

Policy making

Community

Institutional Mechanism (Tamil Nadu)

OSDMA Operations

RIMES Technical and Operational Support

Unit

RIMES Program Unit

Research and Development Cell

Training and Capacity Building Cell

Operational Support

DSS development

Emergency Operations

Post Disaster Evaluations

Annual DSS Performance Audit

Backup Support

Assist in emergency Operations

Survey for High resolution DEM, Bathymetry

Dynamic Risk Assessment Landslides, Cyclones

Institutional Mechanism (ODISHA)

Thank you