2019 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #4 · DRAFT: Results published for I&M’s...

DRAFT: Results published for I&M’s Indiana IRP 4th Stakeholder Meeting: May 23, 2019

2019 Integrated Resource PlanStakeholder Workshop #4

May 23, 2019

Horizon Convention Center401 S. High StreetMuncie, IN 47305

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TO ACCESS THIS EVENT:

1. Go to: http://aep.adobeconnect.com/share/

2. Choose to “Enter as a Guest” and type your name in the space provided. Then click on “Enter Room”

3. You will then be prompted to enter your EXTERNAL direct dial phone number: After entering your external # beginning with a 1 (ex 16147163596), hit the "Call My Phone" button

If you have trouble with this connection, you can dial into the audio conference by using the following dial-in numbers

I&M Internal: 8-237-6338Toll Free: 1-877-253-4307Passcode: 9107922#

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GROUND RULES

Ground Rules

• Everyone will be heard and have the opportunity to contribute • Please be respectful of all opinions and/or proposals• Stick to the time allotted

Housekeeping

• Safety – emergency exits• Restroom locations• Please silence phones and if you must take a call, please step

outside the room to do so

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Today’s Agenda

Opening Remarks Stakeholder Feedback Summary Preferred Resource Plan Overview Break Final IRP Inputs, Scenarios & Modeling Results Stakeholder Presentation Next Steps Adjourn

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DRAFT: Results published for I&M’s Indiana IRP 4th Stakeholder Meeting: May 23, 2019 5

I&M’s Key Priorities for the 2019 IRP

Stakeholder Engagement

Continuous Improvement of IRP Processes

Continued DSM/EE Advancement/Deployment

Continued Renewables Deployment

Continued Support for CHP and DG Opportunities

Understanding of Rockport Disposition Options

Develop a reasonable preferred resource plan that balances multiple factors such as cost effectiveness, reliability, portfolio risk and uncertainty to meet the future energy and capacity needs of I&M’s customers

Develop an IRP that meets the requirements of 170 IAC 4-7 (IURC draft proposed rule) and MCL 460.6t(4)


Goals for Today

Today’s Goals:

Discuss Preferred Plan, Final IRP Inputs, Scenarios & Modeling Results

Discuss Stakeholder Feedback


Opening Remarks Stakeholder Feedback Summary Preferred Resource Plan Overview Break Final IRP Inputs, Scenarios, & Modeling Results Stakeholder Presentation Next Steps Adjourn

Today’s Agenda

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Stakeholder Feedback Summary

The Company has provided and posted responses to Stakeholder comments on its IRP website https://www.indianamichiganpower.com/info/projects/IntegratedResourcePlan

The model continues to be available to stakeholders and training sessions have been conducted

You can continue to submit comments at the following website: https://www.indianamichiganpower.com/info/projects/IntegratedResourcePlan

I&M will continue to post stakeholder meeting minutes and comments received through the website

https://www.indianamichiganpower.com/info/projects/IntegratedResourcePlan

https://www.indianamichiganpower.com/info/projects/IntegratedResourcePlan


Changes in Inputs from 3rd Stakeholder Meeting

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• Current U. S. Fundamental Commodity Forecasts• Energy prices are lower primarily due to lower power demand and lower

natural gas prices• Wind resources are assumed to be repowered rather than retired

• Wind and Solar Resources• Updated Pricing and Capacity Credit Value

• Both Wind and Solar have slight price declines from the previous values• The planning capacity credit for both Wind and Solar was revised to

reflect PJM’s recommended values:• Wind (Open/Flat) changed from 5% to 12.3% and• Solar (Tracking) changed from 38% to 51.1% of nameplate

• Updated Load Forecast information • Became available in mid May • To be included into the final modeling and analysis• Will be discussed later in the presentation• Will be included in the Final Report



Today’s Agenda

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I&M’s Going-In Capacity Position (MW)

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2022 – Rockport 2 Lease Expires2028 – Rockport 1 Retires2034 – Cook 1 Retires2037 – Cook 2 Retires

Upcoming Key Milestones & IRP Planning Assumptions:

The Company is “Short” capacity beginning in 2023, which will provide an opportunity to invest in alternative renewable and supply- & demand-side resources in the future


Preferred Plan results driven from the Base Optimization:

In summary by 2038, the Preferred Plan includes: 1,700MW of solar, 2,100MW of wind, 2,700MW of Natural Gas Combined Cycle and 180MW of Energy Efficiency and Demand Response

In addition by 2028, the Preferred Plan includes: 50MW of Storage 50MW of “Micro/Mini-Grid” local deployment

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Preferred Plan Highlights

The cumulative annual resource additions are shown on page 39.


Preferred Plan New Capacity Additions – Nameplate (MW)

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Preferred Plan – Existing and New Capacity Additions – Nameplate (MW)

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Preferred Plan – Existing and New Capacity Additions – FIRM (MW)

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Preferred Plan – Energy Position – (GWh)

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The Company is “long” energy over the planning horizon (based on economic dispatch) due to its existing baseload resources, the addition of new wind and solar resources beginning in 2022, and new combined cycle generation beginning in 2028.


Preferred Plan - DSM/Energy Efficiency

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Cumulative Non-Degraded Energy Efficiency resultsPreferred Plan Bundles Selected

Residential BehavioralResidential Appliances

Residential Water HeatingCommercial VFD

Commercial HVACCom. Building Mgmt. SystemCommercial Outdoor LightingCommercial Indoor Lighting

Industrial Measures


Preferred Plan – Emissions

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In the Preferred Plan, 2048 CO2 emissions are approximately 30% of 2019 CO2 emissions; and SO2 and NOx emissions from existing resources are forecasted to be reduced over 90%.


Summary of Analyses

Adding renewables, storage, and mini-grid resources will result in short-term costs that are higher than the Base Optimization costs. The amounts and timing of future “Resource Acquisitions” will ultimately depend on resource pricing and performance at those future dates.


LoadCost Fuel Costs

EmissionCosts

Existing System FOM

+ OGC

(Incremental) Fixed

+ Variable+ Lease Costs

(Incremental) Capital +

Renewable + VVO Program

Costs

Contract (Revenue)/Cost

Less: Market

Revenue

GRAND TOTAL, Net Utility Costs

(Cost over) Case 1 Optimal

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,574,842 2,288,681 185,403 308,198 1,144,243 849,742 259,973 6,919,187 3,691,896 0Utility CPW 2019-2038 9,057,990 3,234,648 302,306 423,643 1,630,078 2,770,617 225,090 11,439,021 6,205,351 0

Utility CPW 2019-2048 11,622,128 3,909,906 419,602 451,629 1,920,175 4,433,284 148,973 13,710,424 9,195,273 0CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 3,197,228 0TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,392,502 0

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,574,842 2,232,796 216,943 313,982 1,117,716 896,287 260,558 6,811,276 3,801,847 109,951Utility CPW 2019-2038 9,057,990 3,112,569 708,984 514,436 1,548,820 3,245,504 226,039 11,462,761 6,951,580 746,229

Utility CPW 2019-2048 11,622,128 3,767,811 1,034,095 643,955 1,829,265 4,777,073 150,179 13,889,291 9,879,046 683,773CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 3,362,591 165,363TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 13,241,637 849,136


Utility CPW 2019-2048 11,622,128 3,832,867 405,505 451,629 1,909,145 4,506,243 148,973 13,616,504 9,259,986 64,713CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 3,215,415 18,186TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,475,401 82,900

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,574,842 2,178,046 166,088 308,198 1,233,595 1,316,593 259,973 7,212,614 3,824,722 132,826Utility CPW 2019-2038 $9,057,990 $2,470,733 $170,310 $423,643 $1,834,199 $4,142,663 $225,090 $12,032,849 6,291,778 86,427

Utility CPW 2019-2048 11,622,128 2,495,820 174,854 451,629 2,223,818 6,550,680 148,973 14,541,777 9,126,125 (69,148)CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 2,849,131 (348,098)TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 11,975,255 (417,246)

Case 12: High Renewables - Peaking

Case 9 - Preferred, Storage and MiniGrid (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Case 7 - Base With Storage and MiniGrid (RP1 FGD 1/2029 & Retires 12/2044; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Case 1: Base - (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

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Summary of Analyses

Adding renewables, storage, and mini-grid resources will result in short-term costs that are higher than the Base Optimization costs. The amounts and timing of future “Resource Acquisitions” will ultimately depend on resource pricing and performance at those future dates.


Preferred Plan Risk Assessment

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Revenue Requirement at Risk is higher for the Rockport FGD case but not significantly different for the other scenarios. Increasing the amount of renewable energy and lowering CO2 emissions reduces risks


Key Stochastic Variables


Preliminary: IRP 5-Year Action Plan

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Consider the additions of approximately:

300MW of Solar resources: 150MW by 2022,

20MWs and 45MWs for 2019 and 2020 respectively 150MW by 2023

600MW of Wind resources: 300MW in 2022 and 300MW in 2023

200MW of Short-Term Capacity Purchases by 2023

10MW of Storage resources in 2022

18MW of “Mini-Grid” resources in 2022

Develop a DSM plan consistent with the IRP, as well as addressing jurisdictional requirements

I&M’s 5 year action plan is based on all assumptions included in the IRP Report and a significant change in any of the assumptions may affect the amount or type of additions listed below. For example, I&M’s 5 year action plan would be different if the Rockport 2 Lease was extended instead of terminated in 2022.



Today’s Agenda

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Scenarios & Portfolios Considered

We considered 22 different scenarios of varying commodity pricing conditions, load conditions and existing and future resource conditions.

Additionally, two sensitivities were completed around wind and solar annual build constraints and reserve margin limits:• When large amounts of wind and

solar are available they are selected, in this sensitivity 300GW of wind was selected in 2022, 50GW of solar was selected in 2023 and 50GW of tier 2 solar was selected in 2030

• With the reserve margin constraint of 20%, only tier 1 wind was added, 46GW by 2028

• These two sensitives show that reasonable resource constraints are required to get reasonable modeling results

Type NameCommodity

PricingConditions

Load Conditions

1. Base - (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.) Base Base2. High Band - (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.) High Band Base3. Low Band - (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.) Low Band Base4. No Carbon - (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.) No Carbon Base5. Case 5 & 5A(RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Base/No Carbon (A) Base

6. Case 6 & 6A(RP1 FGD 1/2026 & Retires 12/2044; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Base/No Carbon (A)

Base

7. Case 7 & 7A(RP1 FGD 1/2029 & Retires 12/2044; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Base/No Carbon (A)

Base

8. Case 8 &8A(RP1 Retires 1/2025; RP2 Lease Extended, FGD 1/2029, & Retires 12/2048)

Base/No Carbon (A)

Base

9. Transitional (RP2 Lease End 2022, RP1 Retire 12/2028) Base Base10. 12 - Year Peaking (Post RP2 Lease End) Base Base11. 15 - Year Peaking (Post RP2 Lease End) Base Base

12. Case 12 & 12a12 - High Renewables - Peaking12a - High Renewables - Peaking and CC

Base Base

13. Low Load Base Low14. High Load Base High15. Low Load Low Band Low16. High Load High Band High

Group 5Group 5

EE Scenarios

17. EE Decrement Method Base Base

Group 1 Commodity

Pricing Scenarios

Group2 & 2A

Rockport Scenarios Includes

Storage & MiniGrid

Group 3 IRP

ScenariosIncludes

Storage & MiniGrid

Group 4Load

Scenarios

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Group 4


Updated Load Forecast

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• I&M just completed the 2019 Load Forecast on May 17th, which will be used in the final IRP.• Compared to the 2018 Load Forecast which was used in previous stakeholder presentations, the

updated load forecast is slightly lower due primarily to a marginally weaker economic outlook for the I&M service territory.


Fundamentals

Fundamental Forecast – 2019H1:

Base Case: Includes a $15/metric ton carbon price beginning in 2028, escalating at a lower rate than previous values

High Case: Base Case assumptions with high fuel prices and higher loads Low Case: Base Case assumptions with low fuel prices and lower loads No Carbon Case: Base case assumptions with no carbon price assumption

Future Considerations:

Nuclear Plant Retirements Evolving State of Carbon Mitigation

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Commodity Prices (2019 Forecast – Nominal $)(Prices are not location specific but reflect trading hubs)

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Commodity Prices (2019 Forecast – Nominal $)(Prices are not location specific but reflect trading hubs)


IRP Inputs and Assumptions

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• Short-Term Market Purchase• A one-year capacity purchase with no associated energy• Up to 1,000MW may be selected in any year• Pricing based on Fundamental Commodity Forecast Scenario


Updated IRP Inputs and Assumptions

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Updated Wind Resources for the IRP

• Installed Cost based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s H2 2018 Renewable Energy Market Outlook• Average wind cost declined about 8.5% since 3rd Stakeholder Meeting• Wind capacity credit increased to 12.3% from 5% based on PJM proposal released in February• 300MW of Wind Available per year; 150MW for each Tranche, with a maximum build over the planning period

of 2,100MW• Expected Capacity Factor: 40.5% for Tranche A & 35% for Tranche B

Source: AEP Based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance H2 2018 US Renewable Energy Market Outlook


• Two Tranches Available as a Modeling Constraint – Tier 1 and Tier 2 Pricing with Normalized ITC impact• 300MW of Solar Available per year; 150MW at Tier 1 & 150MW at Tier 2, with a maximum build over the planning period

of 1,700MW• Expected Capacity Factor ~24.4%, from Single Axis Tracking system• For a 2022 Commercial Operation Date ~LCOE $50 to $54/MWh, a slight decline since 3rd Stakeholder Meeting• Solar capacity credit increased to 51.1% from 38% based on PJM proposal released in February

Updated IRP Inputs and Assumptions

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Updated Solar Resources for the IRP

Source: AEP Based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance H2 2018 US Renewable Energy Market Outlook


• Based on feedback from the CAC, the Company added the “Miscellaneous” Bundle that makes up the difference between the Top-Twenty potential measures and the total potential

• For Residential bundles this initially adds ~2,700 MWhs of Achievable Potential and ~900 MWhs of High Achievable Potential

• These additional resources will be included in all scenarios to be included in the Final Report

Updated IRP Inputs and Assumptions – EE Bundles

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Residential

BundleLCOE

($/MWh)

Installed Cost

($/kWh)

Yearly Potential

Savings (MWh) 2020-2024

Yearly Potential


Yearly Potential


Yearly Potential


Bundle Life

R - HVAC Equipment - AP $88.01 $0.60 8,759 10,256 11,790 12,346 10.00R - HVAC Equipment - HAP $132.02 $0.90 1,777 1,956 1,799 1,770 10.00

R - Building Shell - AP $162.66 $1.65 1,516 1,623 1,786 1,834 20.00R - Building Shell - HAP $243.99 $2.48 696 615 525 - 20.00

R - Appliances - AP $45.17 $0.26 4,520 4,720 4,969 5,087 8.00R - Appliances - HAP $67.75 $0.40 2,238 2,004 1,689 1,627 8.00

R - Water Heating - AP $34.41 $0.24 6,340 7,232 6,226 5,295 10.00R - Water Heating - HAP $51.62 $0.35 3,225 3,304 2,184 1,617 10.00

R - Lighting - AP $88.21 $0.64 - - 1,954 1,866 11.00R - Lighting - HAP $132.32 $0.97 - - 592 1,029 11.00

R - Behavioral - AP $108.66 $0.10 28,500 28,500 28,500 28,500 1.00R - Miscellaneous - AP $74.09 $0.54 2,694 3,549 3,175 3,614 11.00

R - Miscellaneous - HAP $111.14 $0.81 919 786 977 1,184 11.00Achievable Potential Sum 52,329 55,880 58,400 58,542

High Achievable Potential Sum 8,855 8,666 7,767 7,227


Updated IRP Inputs and Assumptions – EE Bundles (continued)

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Commercial & Industrial

BundleLCOE

($/MWh)

Installed Cost

($/kWh)

Yearly Potential


Yearly Potential


Yearly Potential


Yearly Potential


Bundle Life

C - VFD - AP $6.88 $0.06 5,411 5,748 6,484 6,629 14.00C - VFD - HAP $10.31 $0.09 2,599 2,444 2,150 2,200 14.00

C - INDUSTRIAL MEASURES - AP $15.55 $0.11 6,417 5,688 4,636 4,361 10.00C - INDUSTRIAL MEASURES - HAP $23.32 $0.16 2,624 2,003 1,190 999 10.00C - HVAC & REFRIGERATION - AP $10.62 $0.10 10,216 9,875 9,757 9,625 17.00

C - HVAC & REFRIGERATION - HAP $15.93 $0.15 3,921 3,407 2,278 1,970 17.00C - COMMERCIAL OUTDOOR LIGHTING - AP $11.89 $0.10 3,093 3,463 2,688 2,347 14.00

C - COMMERCIAL OUTDOOR LIGHTING - HAP $17.84 $0.15 1,109 1,388 906 738 14.00C - COMMERCIAL INDOOR LIGHTING - AP $11.95 $0.10 20,482 22,707 19,885 17,912 13.00

C - COMMERCIAL INDOOR LIGHTING - HAP $17.93 $0.15 5,707 6,936 4,674 3,591 13.00C - BUILDING MANAGEMENT SYSTEM - AP $28.25 $0.19 4,036 4,253 4,606 4,735 10.00

C - BUILDING MANAGEMENT SYSTEM - HAP $42.37 $0.29 1,770 1,608 1,380 1,325 10.00C - COM MISCELLANEOUS - AP $11.00 $0.10 12,149 16,004 14,315 16,295 16.00

C - COM MISCELLANEOUS - HAP $16.50 $0.15 3,799 3,252 4,040 4,896 16.00C - IND MISCELLANEOUS - AP $15.55 $0.11 1,788 2,355 2,107 2,398 10.00

C - IND MISCELLANEOUS - HAP $23.32 $0.16 602 515 640 776 10.00Achievable Potential Sum 63,592 70,092 64,478 64,302

High Achievable Potential Sum 22,130 21,553 17,259 16,494

Achievable Potential Sum - R, C & I 115,921 125,972 122,878 122,844 High Achievable Potential Sum - R, C & I 30,985 30,218 25,025 23,721

Total Annual Potential 146,906 156,190 147,903 146,564

• Based on feedback from the CAC, the Company added the “Miscellaneous” Bundle that makes up the difference between the Top-Twenty potential measures and the total potential

• For Commercial & Industrial bundles this initially adds ~13,950 MWhs of Achievable Potential and ~4,400 MWhs of High Achievable Potential

• These additional resources will be included in all scenarios to be included in the Final Report


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Stakeholder Presentation

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Final Steps to Filing I&M’s IRP on July 1, 2019

Today - Stakeholder Meeting #4, May 23, 2019 Discuss stakeholder feedback on Preferred Plan, and final IRP inputs,

scenarios, sensitivities & portfolios

Stakeholders provide final comments on inputs, scenarios and portfolios, as soon as possible

Following meeting #4, I&M will finalize modeling and preferred resource plan and prepare final report for filing on July 1, 2019


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Appendix


Comparison of Base, Preferred, Rockport and High Renewables Plan


Preferred Plan & Transitional Plan (Case 9) Capacity Position

Cumulative Capacity Additions - MW

Planning Peak Load

(MW)

Required Generation

Capacity (MW)

Firm Generation

Capacity without New

Additions (MW)

216 MW RICE Firm Capacity

(MW)

325 MW (25% Share of 1,603 MW) M 501 JAC Firm

Capacity (MW)

Residential DR Firm Capacity

(MW)

Commercial DSM Firm Capacity

(MW)

Residential DSM Firm Capacity

(MW)

Distributed Solar Firm Capacity

(MW)

Utility Solar Firm

Capacity (MW)

CVR Firm Capacity

(MW)

Wind Firm Capacity

(MW)

Battery Storage Firm

Capacity (MW)

Short Term PPA Capacity

(MW)

Firm Generation

Capacity with New Additions

(MW)

Capacity Reserves

Above Required

Generation with New Capacity Additions

(MW)

Reserve Margin

with New Capacity Additions

(%)Nameplate

SolarNameplate

Wind2019 3,985 4,338 4,417 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 4,417 79 10.842020 3,728 4,059 4,463 0 0 0 15 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 4,478 420 20.122021 3,746 4,078 4,474 0 0 0 30 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 4,504 425 20.222022 3,770 4,104 4,485 18 0 0 42 0 10.35 76 0 37 10 0 4,679 574 24.11 149 3002023 3,826 4,165 3,636 18 0 11 53 0 12.42 153 0 74 10 200 4,166 1 8.90 299 6002024 3,822 4,161 3,636 18 0 11 62 7 14.90 178 0 74 10 150 4,161 0 8.87 348 6002025 3,832 4,172 3,636 36 0 11 69 0 15.73 254 0 74 30 50 4,175 4 8.96 498 6002026 3,844 4,185 3,636 36 0 18 75 0 16.56 331 0 74 30 0 4,216 31 9.67 647 6002027 3,850 4,191 3,636 36 0 32 80 0 17.39 407 0 92 30 0 4,331 139 12.48 796 7502028 3,864 4,207 2,375 54 770 47 83 7 18.63 483 9 111 50 200 4,207 0 8.87 945 9002029 3,877 4,221 2,368 54 770 54 75 7 20.29 585 9 129 50 100 4,221 0 8.87 1,145 10502030 3,892 4,237 2,368 54 770 54 83 0 21.94 687 9 148 50 0 4,243 6 9.03 1,344 12002031 3,907 4,254 2,368 54 770 54 82 0 23.60 763 9 166 50 0 4,339 85 11.06 1,493 13502032 3,928 4,276 2,355 54 770 54 82 0 25.25 839 9 185 50 0 4,422 146 12.59 1,642 15002033 3,945 4,295 2,355 54 770 54 82 0 27.74 865 9 203 50 0 4,468 174 13.27 1,692 16502034 3,960 4,311 1,338 54 1,540 68 81 6 29.81 865 9 221 50 50 4,311 0 8.87 1,692 18002035 3,979 4,332 1,338 54 1,540 68 79 8 31.46 865 9 240 50 50 4,332 0 8.87 1,692 19502036 3,998 4,353 1,331 54 1,540 83 76 8 33.12 865 9 258 50 50 4,356 4 8.96 1,692 21002037 4,012 4,368 204 54 2,695 97 46 5 34.78 865 9 258 50 50 4,368 0 8.87 1,692 21002038 4,028 4,385 204 54 2,695 97 66 8 36.43 865 9 258 50 50 4,392 6 9.03 1,692 21002039 4,044 4,403 204 54 2,695 111 60 8 38.50 865 9 258 50 50 4,403 0 8.87 1,692 21002040 4,064 4,424 48 54 3,080 111 55 0 40.16 865 9 258 50 0 4,570 146 12.46 1,692 21002041 4,074 4,435 48 54 3,080 104 52 0 42.23 865 9 258 50 0 4,562 127 11.99 1,692 21002042 4,090 4,453 48 54 3,080 90 53 0 44.30 865 9 258 50 0 4,550 98 11.26 1,692 21002043 4,109 4,473 48 54 3,080 76 55 0 46.37 865 0 258 50 0 4,532 58 10.29 1,692 21002044 4,122 4,488 48 54 3,080 68 59 0 48.85 865 0 258 50 0 4,531 43 9.91 1,692 21002045 4,137 4,504 48 54 3,080 68 63 8 51.34 865 0 258 50 0 4,545 42 9.87 1,692 21002046 4,154 4,522 48 54 3,080 68 68 8 53.82 865 0 258 50 0 4,552 30 9.59 1,692 21002047 4,172 4,542 48 54 3,080 72 70 11 56.72 865 0 258 50 0 4,564 22 9.40 1,692 21002048 4,182 4,553 48 54 3,080 72 57 9 59.62 865 0 258 50 0 4,553 0 8.87 1,692 2100


Group 1 Summary

LoadCost Fuel Costs

EmissionCosts

Existing System FOM

+ OGC

(Incremental) Fixed


+ST PPA



Costs


Less: Market

Revenue


Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,574,842 2,288,681 185,403 308,198 1,144,243 849,742 259,973 6,919,187 3,691,896 Utility CPW 2019-2038 9,057,990 3,234,648 302,306 423,643 1,630,078 2,770,617 225,090 11,439,021 6,205,351

Utility CPW 2019-2048 11,622,128 3,909,906 419,602 451,629 1,920,175 4,433,284 148,973 13,710,424 9,195,273 CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 3,197,228 TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,392,502

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 6,108,214 2,358,926 186,255 308,198 1,144,336 1,122,569 192,178 7,812,821 3,607,855 Utility CPW 2019-2038 9,926,157 3,303,527 287,295 423,643 1,625,380 3,201,867 127,243 12,826,073 6,069,038






Case 4: No Carbon - (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Case 1: Base - (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Case 2: High Band - (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Case 3: Low Band - (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)


Group 1 Costs ($000)


Group 1 – Overall Capacity Additions Throughout Planning PeriodCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 1 – Capacity Additions STMP & CCCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 1 – Capacity Additions Wind & SolarCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 1 – Capacity Additions EE & VVOCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 2 Summary

LoadCost Fuel Costs

EmissionCosts

Existing System FOM

+ OGC

(Incremental) Fixed




Costs


Less: Market

Revenue


(Cost over) Case 1



Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,574,842 2,266,337 285,864 313,982 1,124,486 1,308,380 260,557 6,948,126 4,186,322 494,426Utility CPW 2019-2038 9,057,990 3,145,678 777,259 497,653 1,557,147 3,404,756 226,038 11,606,285 7,060,236 854,885




Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,574,842 2,566,198 228,101 365,162 1,717,239 717,026 260,558 7,091,838 4,337,288 645,392Utility CPW 2019-2038 9,057,990 3,362,561 630,742 578,357 2,591,235 2,926,112 226,038 11,417,470 7,955,565 1,750,214

Utility CPW 2019-2048 11,622,128 3,948,303 996,944 714,779 2,855,966 4,358,143 150,179 13,814,977 10,775,295 1,580,022CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 3,046,675 (150,554)TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 13,821,970 1,429,468

Case 8 - Base With Storage and MiniGrid (RP1 Retires 1/2025; RP2 Lease Extended, FGD 1/2029, & Retires 12/2048)

Case 5 - Base With Storage and MiniGrid (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)




Group 2 – Capacity Additions STMP, CC & Recip EngineCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 2 – Capacity Additions Wind, Solar & BatteryCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 2A Summary

LoadCost Fuel Costs

EmissionCosts

Existing System FOM

+ OGC

(Incremental) Fixed




Costs


Less: Market

Revenue


(Cost over) Case 5A



Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,396,421 2,289,205 196,759 313,982 1,105,634 1,058,906 209,092 6,481,287 4,088,711 469,693Utility CPW 2019-2038 8,443,991 3,442,363 328,097 497,653 1,534,759 2,515,242 162,114 10,065,646 6,858,573 810,377


Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,396,421 2,307,753 163,362 313,982 1,102,607 639,345 188,837 6,666,196 3,446,110 (172,908)Utility CPW 2019-2038 8,443,991 3,775,841 370,456 514,436 1,547,304 2,366,544 102,974 11,030,806 6,090,740 42,544

Utility CPW 2019-2048 10,728,851 4,914,688 463,749 643,955 1,836,665 3,546,457 20,187 13,279,490 8,818,894 (52,241)CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 3,258,623 201,889TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,077,517 149,647

Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,396,421 2,670,336 188,263 365,162 1,702,284 550,848 188,836 7,047,724 4,014,428 395,409Utility CPW 2019-2038 8,443,991 4,061,524 376,961 578,357 2,581,287 2,239,991 102,972 11,251,522 7,133,562 1,085,366

Utility CPW 2019-2048 10,728,851 5,249,518 507,496 714,779 2,859,738 3,193,695 20,186 13,464,797 9,753,296 882,160CPW of End Effects beyond 2048 2,895,651 (161,082)TOTAL Utility Cost, Net CPW (2019$) 12,648,948 721,078

Case 8A - No Carbon With Storage and MiniGrid (RP1 Retires 1/2025; RP2 Lease Extended, FGD 1/2029, & Retires 12/2048)

Case 5A - No Carbon With Storage and MiniGrid (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Case 6A - No Carbon With Storage and MiniGrid (RP1 FGD 1/2026 & Retires 12/2044; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Case 7A- No Carbon With Storage and MiniGrid (RP1 FGD 1/2029 & Retires 12/2044; RP2 No Lease Ext.)


Group 2A Costs ($000)


Group 2A – Overall Capacity Additions Throughout Planning PeriodCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 2A – Capacity Additions STMP, CC & Recip EngineCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 2A – Capacity Additions Wind, Solar & BatteryCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 2A – Capacity Additions EECumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 3 Summary

LoadCost Fuel Costs

EmissionCosts

Existing System FOM

+ OGC

(Incremental) Fixed




Costs


Less: Market

Revenue


(Cost over) Case 1

Optimal



Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,574,842 2,179,814 166,400 308,198 1,161,853 1,262,677 259,973 7,028,220 3,885,537 193,640Utility CPW 2019-2038 $9,057,990 $2,825,443 $231,828 $423,643 $1,662,777 $3,364,535 $225,090 $11,325,351 $6,465,955 260,604


Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,574,842 2,181,582 166,713 308,198 1,147,970 984,764 259,973 6,820,149 3,803,894 111,997Utility CPW 2019-2038 $9,057,990 $2,580,339 $189,481 $423,643 $1,666,560 $2,974,752 $225,090 $10,614,784 $6,503,069 297,718


Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,574,842 2,178,046 166,088 308,198 1,233,595 1,316,593 259,973 7,212,614 3,824,722 132,826Utility CPW 2019-2038 $9,057,990 $2,470,733 $170,310 $423,643 $1,834,199 $4,142,663 $225,090 $12,032,849 $6,291,778 86,427


Cumulative Present Worth $000 (2019$)Utility CPW 2019-2029 5,574,842 2,178,046 166,088 308,198 1,223,200 1,200,309 259,973 7,139,996 3,770,660 78,764Utility CPW 2019-2038 $9,057,990 $2,704,927 $210,868 $423,643 $1,809,311 $3,813,676 $225,090 $12,124,728 $6,120,776 (84,575)


Case 12A: High Renewables - Peaking and CC

Case 12: High Renewables - Peaking

Case 9 - Preferred, Storage and MiniGrid (RP1 Retires 12/2028; RP2 No Lease Ext.)

Case 10: 12 - Year Peaking (Post RP2 Lease End)

Case 11: 15 - Year Peaking (Post RP2 Lease End)



REVIEW


Group 3 – Capacity Additions STMP, CT, CC & Recip EngineCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 3 – Capacity Additions Wind, Solar & BatteryCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 4 – Capacity Additions STMP, CT, CC & Recip EngineCumulative Capacity Additions - MW


Group 4 – Capacity Additions Wind, SolarCumulative Capacity Additions - MW

2019 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #4 · DRAFT: Results published for I&M’s...

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Transcript of 2019 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #4 · DRAFT: Results published for I&M’s...