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VALID AS OF 9/15/2018 5:15 AM

What Has Changed?

Gusty winds from Florence will begin today.

Heavy rainfall is the biggest threat; Flash Flood Watch issued starting 8am

today, 9/15

Heaviest rain will fall Sunday.

2018 World Equestrian Games

Decision Support Weather Briefing #13

National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC

Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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NHC 5 AM EDT Tropical Cyclone Florence Forecast

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Main Points for Tropical Cyclone Florence

Hazard Impacts Location Timing

Wind

Breezy to windy conditions

associated with Tropical Cyclone

Florence could knock down scattered

trees and powerlines.

Highest winds expected in

piedmont areas east of the

WEG Site, though breezy

conditions are expected at

the WEG site.

Today and tomorrow.

Tornado

Though non-zero, tornado threat for

the WEG site is low.

Tornado potential is

highest east of the WEG

site, though some risk can’t

be ruled out.

If any tornado risk

materializes, it would be

late Saturday through

Sunday.

Heavy

Rain/Flash

Flooding

Flash flooding is possible across

much of Polk county. Rainfall

estimates range from 6-8,” with

isolated higher totals which would put

the mountains of NC at risk for

landslides.

The WEG site, along with

most of western NCmay

see heavy rainfall, flooding,

and potential landslides.

Rainfall will start on

Saturday, though

heaviest rain arrives on

Sunday. Showers could

linger through early next

week.

River Flooding

Possible, though flash flooding and

landslides are the bigger threat.

The entire area. Any heavy rain would

cause main stem rivers to

rise through the

weekend.

Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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The NHC Tropical Weather Outlook

Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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Tornado: Uncertain and highly track dependent

Flash Flooding: Increasing this weekend

River Flooding: Location uncertain

Wind: Winds stronger to the east

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Summary of Greatest Impacts

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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Rainfall Expected with Florence through Monday

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Excessive Rainfall Outlook Day 1 (Saturday)

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Excessive Rainfall Outlook Day 2 (Sunday)

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Excessive Rainfall Outlook Day 3 (Monday)

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Flash Flood Watch in effect 8am Sat (9/15) to 12am Mon (9/17)

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Maximum Expected Wind Gusts Saturday

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Maximum Expected Wind Gusts Sunday

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Values at Max Heat: T (⁰F): 78 Td (⁰F):69 Wind (mph):18 Cloud Cover(%):95

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=35.2818&lon=-82.0682&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical https://www.weather.gov/tsa/wbgt

Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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Tropical Cyclone Florence Forecast Summary

Florence continues to stall near the coastal Carolinas before it moves farther inland

late today and tomorrow. The main wind threat is to the east of the WEG Site, gusty

winds are still expected today and tomorrow at the WEG site. Flooding rainfall this

weekend through early next week is the greatest threat. Landslides in higher terrain

also look increasingly likely due to prolonged heavy rain and potentially high rainfall

rates in tropical rain bands.

Confidence in impacts at the WEG site, especially flooding rainfall, is generally high.

The threat of tornadoes is now very low, though it is non-zero through Sunday.

Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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Regional NWS Office Contacts

NWS Greenville- Spartanburg, SC

NWS Morristown, TN

NWS Atlanta, GA

NWS Columbia, SC

NWS Raleigh, NC

NWS Blacksburg, VA

Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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Web:

www.weather.gov/gsp

Phone (public):

864-848-9970

E-mail:

gsp.webmaster@noaa.gov

Facebook:

NWSGSP

Twitter:

@NWSGSP

YouTube:

NWSGreer

Contact and Next Briefing Information

Briefing Webpage:

www.weather.gov/gsp/brief

Next Briefing When: By 6 am on Sunday,

September 16, 2018

Method: Briefing slides

Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing

is time-sensitive. Please follow the latest NHC track forecasts for the

latest information on Florence.