2018 Outlook: Charts That Got Us Thinking · PDF fileBond inflows have outpaced equity inflows...
66
2Q 2018 Outlook: Charts That Got Us Thinking New factors weighing on the market
Transcript of 2018 Outlook: Charts That Got Us Thinking · PDF fileBond inflows have outpaced equity inflows...
2Q 2018 Outlook:
Charts That Got Us ThinkingNew factors weighing on the market
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson is a managing director and asset allocation strategist
at Wellington Management Company LLP and global investment strategist for
Hartford Funds.
Nanette has selected the charts in this presentation to off er “behind the scenes”
insight into what may be driving the markets.
With more than 25 years of experience in the capital markets, Nanette has
held a variety of roles spanning the major asset classes. As global investment
strategist, she analyzes and interprets markets and investment opportunities for
Hartford Funds’ sales organization, the fi nancial advisor community, and major
broker-dealers and distributors. She also advises Wellington Management’s
institutional clients, including pension funds, insurance companies, endowments
and foundations, and central banks, consulting on strategic asset-allocation
issues to develop multi-asset investment solutions.
2
Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................PageKey Points ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4Charts:Multi-asset Views:
Multi-asset outlook process ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5Multi-asset views ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6Higher dispersion and interest rates ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7Volatility is back! ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Global Fundamentals:Global growth is solid ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9Global infl ationary pressures pick up ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10China is no longer a source of global defl ation ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Commodities:Commodities are at their cheapest relative to stocks since 1970s ...................................................................................................................................................... 12
Interest Rates:Market below Fed’s rate expectations ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13Flatter yield curve points to better value at the short end .................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Regional Equities:In US, capital expenditure (capex) intentions leading capex spending ............................................................................................................................................... 15Deregulation is happening ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16Dollar weakness could lift economy ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17US trade surpluses have typically occurred when GDP slows .............................................................................................................................................................. 18Euro strengthening could be headwind for economy ........................................................................................................................................................................... 19European consumer confi dence implies stronger retail sales .............................................................................................................................................................. 20Financial conditions suggest growth has topped in Europe ................................................................................................................................................................. 21Japan’s consumer recovers ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 22Japan’s manufacturing expansion is steady ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 23Japanese companies improving shareholder returns ............................................................................................................................................................................ 24Structural reform in Japan: Women join the workforce ......................................................................................................................................................................... 25Higher US rates point to weaker yen ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26Tighter fi nancial conditions in China ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 27Chinese consumer is emerging ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28Emerging economies’ current accounts have improved ....................................................................................................................................................................... 29Emerging markets (EM) increasingly drive the global economy ........................................................................................................................................................... 30Valuations relatively attractive outside US .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Credit:Benign default environment ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32Higher rate sensitivity in corporate bonds .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 33Flatter corporate curve points to value at the short end....................................................................................................................................................................... 34Tighter yields lead to low returns ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35Bank loan valuations look attractive ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 36Credit spreads are expensive .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Risks: Trade wars have unintended consequences........................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 Portfolio Construction:
Think Function, Not Form: Consider diversifying exposure across economic environments ........................................................................................................... 39Putting it all together .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40Implementation Ideas ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................41-42Appendix: More Charts That Got Us Thinking ................................................................................................................................................................................44-63
3
Key PointsSigns of global synchronized growth weakening a bit, moderati ng my bullish outlook
I favor equiti es over bonds. Regionally, I prefer the US and Japan relati ve to Europe and emerging markets (EM)
Rising infl ati on and att racti ve valuati ons may warrant commoditi es exposure
My diff erenti ated views:• I prefer US and Japan relati ve to Europe and EM• Within credit, I prefer bank loans over high yield and suggest avoiding
interest-rate sensiti ve sectors, such as investment grade and hard-currency EM debt
• Value-oriented sectors, such as fi nancials, are att racti ve
Risks: US policy shift ing from tax reform to protecti onism, unexpectedly sharp rise in infl ati on or interest rates, crowded trades, global populism
4
Multi -asset Views
Legend
BullishModerately bullishNeutralModerately bearishBearish
Multi -asset outlook process
As of March 2018 | Source: Wellington Management
Fundamentals Policy Valuati ons View
Equiti es US
Europe
Japan
Emerging markets (EM)
10-year yields US
Europe
Japan
Credit Investment Grade
High yield
Bank loans
EM Debt
Commoditi es Commoditi es
There are three inputs to my process: economic fundamentals, fi scal/monetary policy, and valuati ons.
5
Multi -asset Views
Asset class ViewChange from previous quarter
Developed market equiti es Moderately bullish –
US Moderately bullish –
Europe Neutral
Japan Moderately bullish
Emerging market equiti es Neutral
Commoditi es Moderately bullish –
10-year rates Moderately bearish –
US Moderately bearish –
Europe Bearish –
Japan Moderately bearish –
Credit Moderately bearish –
Investment-grade credit Bearish –
High yield Moderately bearish
Bank loans Moderately bullish
Emerging market debt Moderately bearish –
As of March 2018 | Source: Wellington Management
Since last quarter, I have reduced my recommendati on for equity markets that are more sensiti ve to the global cycle. I also now favor bank loans over high yield given valuati ons and a higher rate outlook.
6
Higher dispersion and interest ratesThe rise in the yen and the euro was a big reason why internati onal equiti es struggled in Q1.
Multi -asset Views
Yen
MSCI US Info Tech
MSCI US Discretionary
Euro
CS Leveraged Loans
MSCI EM
MSCI US
MSCI US Financials
Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield
EM Sovereign Bonds (USD)
MSCI US Utilities
Bloomberg Barclays US Long Treasury
MSCI Europe
MSCI Japan
MSCI US Materials
MSCI US Energy
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8Percent
1Q 2018 total returns (%)1
All returns are in local currency unless otherwise stated. | 1December 31, 2017 – March 31, 2018 | JPM Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus was used to represent Emerging markets sovereign bonds (USD). | Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. | Please see representati ve index defi niti ons on page 64. | Sources: Bloomberg, Wellington Management 7
The risk of trade restricti ons against the backdrop of less central bank liquidity is contributi ng to higher volati lity this year.
Volati lity is back!Percent of days per year S&P 500 Index was up or down ≥ 1%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018YTD1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
12018 YTD through March 29, 2018 | Source: S&P 500 Index | Chart data 2013 – 2018 YTD | Please see index defi niti ons on page 64.
Multi -asset Views
8
Global growth is sti ll solid, but the so-called “second derivati ve,” or the pace of growth, has slowed everywhere but the US.
Global growth is solid
Global Fundamentals
1Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 signals economic expansion; below 50 signals contraction. | Sources: Haver, Markit, Wellington Management | Chart data: January 2010 – February 2018
1/10 9/10 5/11 1/12 9/12 5/13 1/14 9/14 5/15 1/16 9/16 5/17 1/1835
40
45
50
55
60
65
US EU Japan Emerging markets
Composite purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI)1
9
The US core personal consumpti on expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) preferred measure, is running over their 2% target, but infl ati on is a global theme refl ected in the output gap closing.
Global infl ati onary pressures pick up
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18E-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Sources: Bloomberg, IMF | Chart data: actual: 1980 – 2017; esti mate: 2018 | Gross Domesti c Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific ti me period.| Please see representati ve index defi niti ons on page 64.
Advanced economy output gap as a % of potenti al gross domesti c product (GDP)
Global Fundamentals
10
China is no longer a source of global defl ati onIn the past, China was exporti ng defl ati on in the form of cheap goods. Now, with cuts from China’s government in steel and coal producti on, input prices have been going up, which is ti ed to US infl ati on.
Global Fundamentals
6/02 12/03 6/05 12/06 6/08 12/09 6/11 12/12 6/14 12/15 6/17 12/180.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
US C
PI (y
/y %
cha
nge)
China PPI (y/y % change, 18-m
onth forward)
US CPI (LHS) China PPI (RHS)
Sources: Bloomberg, Wellington Management | Chart data: December 2000 – January 2018. X-axis scale range is June 2002 to July 2019 due to China PPI data being forwarded 18 months. China PPI data is from December 2000 to January 2018 (i.e., fi rst data point for China PPI represents December 2000 and fi nal data point represents January 2018). US CPI data is from June 2002 – January 2018. | 1The CPI in the United States is defi ned by the Bureau of Labor Stati sti cs as “a measure of the average change over ti me in theprices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.” 2A producer price index (PPI) is a price index that measures the average changes in prices received by domesti c producers for their output.
US consumer price index (CPI)1 and China producer price index (PPI)2
11
Commoditi es are at their cheapest levels relati ve to stocks since 1970s
Commoditi es are the most sensiti ve asset class to rising infl ati on. Valuati ons are att racti ve.
Commoditi es
The chart compares the valuati ons of commoditi es relati ve to stocks. When the line is above the median value, commoditi es are expensive relati ve to stocks. When the line is below the median value, commoditi es are cheap relati ve to stocks. | Sources: Bloomberg, Wellington Management | Chart data: January 1970 – February 2018 | Please see representati ve index defi niti ons on page 64.
1/70 1/76 1/82 1/88 1/94 1/00 1/06 1/12 1/180
2
4
6
8
10S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI)/S&P 500 Index
Median
Commoditi es Expensive
Commoditi es Cheap
12
The market is in line with the Fed’s rate expectati ons this year but is dubious about hikes in 2019 and 2020.
Market below Fed’s rate expectati ons
Interest Rates
As of March 21, 2018 | Market and Federal Reserve expectati ons for Fed funds rate at end of each year. | Actual results may vary, perhaps signifi cantly, from the forecasts presented. | Sources: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Wellington Management
Market and Federal Reserve expectati ons for Fed Funds rate at end of each year (%)
2018E 2019E 2020E0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Market Fed
13
Flatt er yield curve points to bett er value at the short endThe yield curve is very fl at but doesn’t foreshadow recession. The risk/reward appears to be bett er at the short end of the yield curve.
Interest Rates
1/01 4/02 6/03 9/04 12/05 3/07 5/08 8/09 11/10 1/12 4/13 7/14 10/15 12/16 3/18-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1A spread is the diff erence between the bid and the ask price of a security or asset. | Sources: Bloomberg | Chart data: January 12, 2001 – March 23, 2018
2-year/10-year US Treasuries spread1 (percent)
14
Tax reform has brought more capex spending. This dynamic could improve producti vity, too.
In US, capital expenditure (capex)1 intenti ons leading capex spending
Regional Equiti es
11/78 4/83 9/87 2/92 7/96 12/00 5/05 10/09 3/14 8/18-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
24
Inte
ntio
ns (m
ovin
g 6-
mon
th a
vera
ge, 6
-mon
th fo
rwar
d)
Actual (y/y % change)
Intentions (LHS) Actual (RHS)
1Capital expenditure are funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets such as property, industrial buildings, or equipment. | Sources: Bloomberg, Philadelphia Fed, BEA, Wellington Management | Chart data: May 1978 – February 2018. X-axis scale range is November 1978 – August 2018 due to intenti ons being forwarded 6 months. Capex intenti on is the amount CFOs plan to spend on capital expenditures, and capex actual is the amount they actually spent on capital expenditures. Intenti ons data (monthly) is from May 1978 to February 2018 (i.e., fi rst data point for intenti ons represents May 1978 and fi nal data point represents February 2018). Actual data(quarterly) is from 4Q1978 to 4Q2017.
US chief fi nancial offi cer capex intenti ons and actual
15
In additi on to tax reform, deregulati on is improving the environment for businesses.
Deregulati on is happening
Regional Equiti es
1Presidenti al year: February 1 – January 31 (i.e., 1994 represents February 1, 1993 – January 31, 1994). Signifi cant regulati ons, as defi ned by Executi ve Order 12866, are those that may “create a serious inconsistency or otherwise interfere with an acti on taken or planned by another agency; materially alter the budgetary impact of enti tlements, grants, user fees, or loan programs or the rights and obligati ons of recipients thereof; or raise novel legal or policy issues arising out of legal mandates, the President’s prioriti es, or the principles set forth in this Executi ve order.” | Source: The George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center www.regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu | Chart data: 1994 – 2017
Number of signifi cant US regulati ons published by presidenti al year1
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 170
60
120
180
240
300
360
16
The dollar has weakened (light blue line moving up). This has historically been associated with bett er US growth relati ve to the rest of the world.
Dollar weakness could lift economy
Regional Equiti es
1Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 signals economic expansion; below 50 signals contracti on. | Sources: Haver, Markit, Deutsche Bank, Wellington Management | Chart data: November 2006 – January 2018. X-axis scale range is May 2007 to July 2018 due to trade-weighted USD being forwarded 6 months. Trade-weighted USD data is from November 2006 to January 2018 (i.e., fi rst data point for the trade-weighted USD represents November 2006 and fi nal data point rep-resents January 2018). US-global PMI data is from May 2007 to January 2018. |
5/07 5/08 5/09 5/10 5/11 5/12 5/13 5/14 5/15 5/16 5/17 5/18-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
US-g
loba
l PM
I
Trade-weighted USD, 6-month %
change, forward 6 months, inverted (%
)US-global PMI (LHS) USD (RHS)
US-global purchasing managers’ index (PMI)1 and trade-weighted USD
17
Trade defi cits tend to expand when GDP increases and contract when GDP declines.
US trade surpluses have typically occurred when GDP slows
Regional Equiti es
1The current account records a nati on’s transacti ons with the rest of the world–specifi cally its net trade in goods and services, its net earnings on cross-border investments, and its net transfer payments–over a defi ned period of ti me, such as a year or a quarter. Shaded areas represent US recessions | Source: Bloomberg | Chart data: June 1970 – December 2017 |
6/70 3/75 12/79 9/84 6/89 3/94 12/98 9/03 6/08 3/13 12/17-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Real
GDP
(y/y
% c
hang
e)
Current account balance as % of GDP
Real GDP (LHS) Current account as % of GDP (RHS)
US real gross domesti c product (GDP) and current account1 balance
18
Euro has been strengthening (light blue line moving up). This has historically been associated with weaker growth relati ve to the rest of the world.
Euro strengthening could be headwind for economy
Regional Equiti es
1Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 signals economic expansion; below 50 signals contracti on. | Sources: Haver, Markit, Deutsche Bank, Wellington Management | Chart data: November 2006 – January 2018. X-axis scale range is May 2007 to July 2018 due to trade-weighted euro being forwarded 6 months. Trade-weighted euro data is from November 2006 to January 2018 (i.e., fi rst data point for the trade-weighted euro represents November 2006 and fi nal data point represents January 2018). Euro area-global PMI data is from May 2007 – January 2018.
5/07 5/08 5/09 5/10 5/11 5/12 5/13 5/14 5/15 5/16 5/17 5/18-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
-15
Euro
are
a-gl
obal
PM
I
Trade-weighted euro, 6-month %
change, forward 6 months, inverted (%
)
Euro area-global PMI (LHS) Euro (RHS)
Euro area-global purchasing managers’ index (PMI)1 and trade-weighted euro
19
European consumer confi dence remains high.
Regional Equiti es
European consumer confi dence implies stronger retail sales
Sources: Haver, Wellington Management | Chart data: December 2000 – February 2018. X-axis scale range is March 2001 to May 2018 due to consumer confi dence being forwarded 3 months. Consumer confi dence data is from December 20005 to February 2018 (i.e.,fi rst data point for consumer confi dence represents December 2000 and fi nal data point represents February 2018). Retail sales data is from March 2001 – January 2018
3/01 8/02 1/04 6/05 11/06 4/08 9/09 2/11 7/12 12/13 5/15 10/16 3/18-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Cons
umer
con�
denc
e, a
dvan
ced
thre
e m
onth
s (y/
y % c
hang
e)
Retail sales, three-month m
oving average (%)
Consumer con�dence (LHS) Retail sales (RHS)
European consumer confi dence and retail sales
20
The stronger euro has ti ghtened fi nancial conditi ons that typically lead to weaker growth (as measured by the PMI).
Financial conditi ons suggest growth has topped in Europe
Regional Equiti es
1/02 9/03 5/05 1/07 9/08 5/10 1/12 9/13 5/15 1/17 9/1830
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
PMI
FMCI (lagged 8 m
onths)
PMI (LHS) FMCI (RHS)
1Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 signals economic expansion; below 50 signals contracti on. | 2Financial Market Conditi ons Index FMCI based on exchange rate and interest rates | Thin dark blue line represents 50 for the PMI (LHS) axis (> 50 represents expansion, < 50 represents contracti on). Thin light blue line represents 0 for the FMCI (RHS) axis (< 0 represents loosening, > 0 represents ti ghtening). Sources: European Commission, Markit, Datastream, Wellington Management | Chart data: May 2001 – March 2018. X-axis scale range is January 2002 to October 2018 due to FMCI being forwarded 8 months. FMCI data is from May 2001 to February 2018 (i.e., fi rst data point for FMCI represents May 2001 and fi nal data point represents February 2018). PMI data is from January 2002 – March 2018
European purchasing managers’ index (PMI)1 and fi nancial market conditi ons index (FMCI)2
Loosening (FMCI < 0)
Tightening (FMCI > 0)
21
Japan’s consumers are displaying stronger confi dence. This is translati ng to increased retail sales.
Japan’s consumer recovers
Regional Equiti es
1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/1836
38
40
42
44
46
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Cons
umer
con�
denc
e, a
dvan
ced
6 m
onth
s (y/
y % c
hang
e, 3
-mon
th a
vg)
Retail sales (y/y % change, 3-m
onth avg)
Consumer con�dence (LHS) Retail sales (RHS)
Japanese consumer confi dence and retail sales
Sources: Bloomberg, Wellington Management | Chart data: May 2012 – February 2018. X-axis scale range is January 2013 to August 2018 due to consumer confi dence being forwarded 6 months. Consumer confi dence data is from May 2012 – February 2018 (i.e., fi rst data point for consumer confi dence represents May 2012 and fi nal data point represents February 2018). Retail sales data is from January 2013 – January 2018
22
Manufacturing is steady, too.
Japan’s manufacturing expansion is steady
Regional Equiti es
1Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 signals eco-nomic expansion; below 50 signals contracti on. | Sources: Haver, Wellington Management | Chart data: December 2002 – February 2018. X-axis scale range is March 2003 to May 2018 due to PMI being forwarded 3 months. PMI data is from December 2002 – February 2018 (i.e., fi rst data point for PMI represents December 2002 and fi nal PMI data point represents February 2018). Industrial producti on data is from March 2003 – January 2018
3/03 11/04 7/06 3/08 11/09 7/11 3/13 11/14 7/16 3/1825
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
PMI (
adva
nced
thre
e m
onth
s)
Industrial production, three-month m
oving average (%)
PMI (LHS) Industrial production (RHS)
Japan purchasing managers’ index (PMI)1 and industrial producti on
23
Japanese companies are focused on improving shareholder returns with higher dividends and increased share buybacks, yet their payout rati o is sti ll lower than in the US and Europe.
Japanese companies improving shareholder returns
Regional Equiti es
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
3
6
9
12
15
18
Fiscal year1
Dividends Share buybacks
Total shareholder return = Share buybacks and dividends (JPY tril)
Total shareholder payout rati o (% of net income)
As of 2016 (%) US Europe Japan
Payout rati o 105.2 79.7 45.2
Dividends/net income 36.1 72.5 31.2
Buybacks/net income 69.1 7.2 14.0
1Fiscal years end March of subsequent year (i.e., 2016 is one year ended March 2017) | Source: Wellington Management based on data from Nomura Securiti es | Chart data: 1998 – 2016
24
Regional Equiti es
Structural reform in Japan: Women join the work forceWomen are increasingly entering the labor force in Japan—another structural change—which is increasing household income.
Female labor force parti cipati on (%)
1The Organisati on for Economic Co-operati on and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental economic organizati on with 35 member coun-tries, founded in 1960 to sti mulate economic progress and world trade. Source: OECD | Chart data: 1990 – 2016
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201655
60
65
70
75
US OECD1 countries Japan
25
The yen has been strengthening recently, but the historical relati onship is that higher US Treasury yields tend to be associated with a weaker yen.
Higher US rates point to weaker yen
Regional Equiti es
Source: Bloomberg | Chart data: January 1, 2015 – March 1, 2018
1/15 4/15 7/15 11/15 2/16 6/16 9/16 1/17 4/17 8/17 11/17 3/181.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
US 10
-yea
r Tre
asur
y (%
)
USD/JPY
US 10-year Treasury (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS)
26
The Chinese government has been trying to contain credit growth with higher interest rates.
Tighter fi nancial conditi ons in China
Regional Equiti es
1A swap rate is the rate of the fi xed leg of a swap as determined by its parti cular market. In an interest rate swap, it is the fi xed interest rate exchanged for a benchmark rate such as LIBOR plus or minus a spread. | Source: Bloomberg | Chart data: December 30, 2011 – March 2, 2018
12/11 7/12 2/13 8/13 3/14 10/14 5/15 11/15 6/16 12/16 7/17 2/182
3
4
5
6China fi ve-year swap rate1 (%)
27
Consumer confi dence in China is high.
Chinese consumer is emerging
Regional Equiti es
Sources: Haver, Wellington Management | Chart data: January 2004 – January 2018. Consumer confi dence through January 2018, retail sales through December 2017.
1/04 4/05 7/06 10/07 1/09 4/10 7/11 10/12 1/14 4/15 7/16 10/1795
100
105
110
115
120
125
8
12
16
20
24
28
Cons
umer
con�
denc
e
Retail sales, three-month m
oving average (%)
Consumer con�dence (LHS) Retail sales (RHS)
China consumer confi dence and retail sales
28
Emerging economies’ current accounts have improvedEmerging economies have improved their fi scal positi ons by reducing large defi cits.
Regional Equiti es
Please see representati ve Index Defi niti ons on page 64. | The current account is an important indicator of an economy’s health. It is defi ned as the sum of the balance of trade (goods and services exports less imports), net income from abroad, and net current transfers. | Sources: Haver, Wellington Management | Chart data: 1Q 2004 – 3Q 2017
Current account, sum of countries in JPM GBI-EM Global Diversifi ed (US$ billions)
3/04 9/05 3/07 9/08 3/10 9/11 3/13 9/14 3/16 9/17-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
29
Regional Equiti es
Sources: Haver, Wellington Management | Chart data: 1991 – 2017 | Gross Domesti c Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific ti me period.
Major regions’ contributi on to global gross domesti c product (GDP) (%)
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 170
25
50
75
100
Other
China
EM ex China
Euro area
US
Japan
Emerging markets (EM) increasingly drive the global economy
China and EM (ex-China) contribute 40% to global growth.
30
US equiti es are relati vely rich versus both their history and other regions.
Valuati ons relati vely att racti ve outside US20-year percenti le rankings, February 28, 2018
US Europe Japan EM
Trailing price-to-book1 (%) 81 45 41 62
Shiller P/E rati o2 (%) 81 53 39 ��
1Price-to-book is the rati o of a stock’s price to its book value per share. | 2Shiller P/E rati o is a valuati on measure, generally applied to broadequity indices, that uses real per-share earnings over a 10-year period. | Sources: MSCI, Datastream, Wellington Management
US – Europe US – Japan US – EM
Trailing price-to-book (%) 92 84 78
Shiller P/E rati o (%) 82 98 ��
Regional Equiti es
31
Benign default environmentDefault rates, which are already low, are forecast to conti nue declining.
96 98 00 01 03 05 06 08 10 11 13 15 16 18E0
4
8
12
16
Actual results may vary, perhaps signifi cantly, from the esti mated data presented | Source: Moody’s | Chart data: actual December 1996 – January 2018, esti mated February 2018 – January 2019
Moody’s US high-yield default rate (%)
Moody’s forecast
Credit
32
The durati on1 of corporate bonds has extended meaningfully, which makes this sector more sensiti ve to changes in interest rates.
Higher rate sensiti vity in corporate bonds
Credit
1Durati on is a measure of the sensiti vity of an investment’s price to nominal interest-rate movement. | Source: Bloomberg | December 2006 – February 2018
US investment-grade credit durati on1 (years)
12/06 10/08 8/10 6/12 4/14 2/16 12/175.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
33
Flatt er corporate curve points to value at short endThe corporate yield curve has fl att ened, which makes short-term corporates relati vely att racti ve.
Credit
Durati on is a measure of the sensiti vity of an investment’s price to nominal interest-rate movement. | Sources: JPMorgan, Wellington Management
Change in Treasury yield and spread components of US investment-grade total yield, September 7, 2017 – February 26, 2018 (yield, %)
1 – 3Y 3 – 5Y 5 – 7Y 7 – 10Y 10Y+-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
US investment-grade duration
Spread
Treasury yield
Total
34
High-yield spreads are currently in the most expensive quinti le. Investments at this level have led to negati ve returns on average over the next three years on a historical basis.
Tight spreads lead to low returns
Credit
1An OAS (Opti on-Adjusted Spread) is a measurement tool for evaluati ng yield diff erences between similar-maturity fi xed-income prod-ucts with diff erent embedded opti ons. | The line shows the general trend that low spreads on high yield lead to low returns and vice versa. | Sources: Barclays, Wellington Management
Average forward three-year US high-yield excess return byopti on-adjusted spread1 quinti les, 1987 – February 2018 (%)
224 – 345 346 – 405 406 – 500 501 – 643 644 – 1663-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
US high yield option-adjusted spread range (bps)
35
Bank loan valuati ons look att racti veInvestors can pick up yield by moving from high-yield bonds to bank loans.
Credit
Sources: Barclays, Credit Suisse, JPMorgan | Chart data: January 1992 – February 2018
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18-2
0
2
4
6US high yield minus bank loan yield (%)
36
Credit spreads are expensive. Bett er value can be found in shorter maturity credit.
Credit spreads are expensive
Credit
Opti on-adjusted spreads,1 March 8, 2018
CurrentPercenti le sinceincepti on (%) Median Low Incepti on date
US corporates 100 42 111 51 June 30, 1989
US high yield 340 25 458 233 January 31, 1994
Emerging market debt 337 36 382 149 December 31, 1994
1Opti on-adjusted spread (OAS) is a measurement tool for evaluati ng yield diff erences between similar-maturity fi xed-incomeproducts with diff erent embedded opti ons. | Sources: Barclays, Wellington Management 37
Trade wars have unintended consequencesWhile trade risks can be diffi cult to analyze, trade restricti ons that prompt retaliati on could aff ect supply chains. This would adversely aff ect the global cycle.
Risks
Source: Datastream
Exports to US as a % of gross domesti c product (GDP) 2016
MexicoCanada
VietnamHong Kong
IrelandCambodia
Singapore
MalaysiaThailand
Switzerland
BelgiumKorea
ChinaChile
GermanyPhilippines
JapanNetherlands
Denmark
Saudi Arabia
AustriaHungary
UK Italy SwedenIndia
FranceBrazil
SpainNorway
AustraliaRussia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
38
The example presented is for illustrati ve purposes and refl ects the current opinions of Wellington Management Global Multi -Asset Strategies�� team as of the date appearing in this material only. This is based on historical assumpti ons and is not intended to be a predic-ti on of how any asset class will perform in the future. | Economic environments are defi ned by year-over-year changes in GDP growth and infl ati on. Growth: + GDP growth, – infl ati on. Weak growth: – GDP growth, – infl ati on. Infl ati on: + GDP growth, + infl ati on. Stagfl ati on: – GDP growth, + infl ati on.
Think Functi on, Not FormConsider diversifying exposure across economic environments
While the basecase is to havemost exposurein assets thatrespond bestto a growthenvironment,consider assetsthat do well inhigher-infl ati onand weak-growthenvironments tohedge against apotenti al equitysell off .
Relati ve performance by economic environment
Nominal govt bonds
Agency MBS
Municipal bonds
TIPS
Gold/precious metals commoditi es
Emerging market currencies/ILBs
Industrial metals commoditi es
Natural resource equiti es
Public equiti es
Private equiti es
Long/short equity hedge funds
Corporate spreads
High yield
Bank loans
EMD
REITs
Rising
RisingFalling
Infl ati onFalling
GrowthEnergy &
agriculture commoditi es
Absolute return/acti ve risk
Growth
Infl ati on
Stagfl ati on
Weak growth
EMD: Emerging Markets DebtREITs: Real EstateInvestment TrustsILBs: Infl ati on-Linked BondsMBS: Mortgage-Backed Securiti esTIPS: Treasury Infl ati on Protected Securiti es
Portf olio Constructi on
39
Putti ng it all togetherSigns of global synchronized growth weakening a bit, moderati ng my bullish outlook
I favor equiti es over bonds. Regionally, I prefer the US and Japan relati ve to Europe and emerging markets (EM)
Rising infl ati on and att racti ve valuati ons may warrant commoditi es exposure
My diff erenti ated views: • Within credit, I prefer bank loans over high yield and suggest avoiding interest
rate sensiti ve sectors, such as investment grade and hard-currency EM debt • Value-oriented sectors, such as fi nancials, are att racti ve
Risks: US policy shift ing from tax reform to protecti onism, unexpectedly sharp rise in infl ati on or interest rates, crowded trades, global populism
40
Implementati on Ideas
Economic Views Hartf ord Funds Ideas
Developed Market Equiti es
US
• The US economy is on the fi rmest footi ng among the major economies
• US equiti es are bolstered by tax cuts, deregulati on, a healthy consumer, and rising capital expenditures
Allocati on to Technology and Financials (as of 3/31/18):
Core Equity Fund – 41%
Growth Opportuniti es Fund – 54%
MidCap Fund – 46 %
Japan/Europe
• Japan’s consumers are benefi ti ng from a ti ght labor market and may fi nally enjoy wage growth
• Japanese businesses are reporti ng record profi t growth
• Europe is enjoying a jobs-driven expansion but could suff er if a trade war erupts
Allocati on to Japanese and European Equiti es (as of 3/31/18):
Internati onal Opportuniti es Fund – 64%
Hartf ord Schroders Internati onal Multi -Cap Value Fund – 59%
The implementati on ideas discussed here refl ect the views of Hartf ord Funds as of March 31, 2018 and are subject to change without noti ce. These views are not intended to be a predicti on of future events or a guarantee of future results. This material should not be considered investment advice or a recommendati on to buy, hold, or sell any security. 41
Implementati on Ideas
Economic Views Hartf ord Funds Ideas
Emerging Markets (EM)
• The outlook for EM is generally positi ve but will vary signifi cantly at the country level
• EM is increasingly driving the global economy
Emerging Market Equiti es Fund – Seeks long-term capital appreciati on by exploiti ng ineffi ciencies in EM
Hartf ord Schroders Emerging Markets Equity Fund – Seeks capital appreciati on by combining top-down country allocati on with bott om-up stock selecti on
Fixed Income
• The Fed will raise interest rates gradually
• Bank loans are more att racti ve than high-yield bonds
• Municipal bonds off er att racti ve aft er-tax yields
Floati ng Rate Fund/Floati ng Rate High Income Fund – Seek to provide high current income and long-term total return by investi ng primarily in bank loans
Municipal Opportuniti es Fund – Seeks to provide current income that is generally exempt from federal income taxes, and long-term total return
Hartf ord Schroders Tax-Aware Bond – Seeks total return on an aft er-tax basis
The implementati on ideas discussed here refl ect the views of Hartf ord Funds as of March 31, 2018 and are subject to change without noti ce. These views are not intended to be a predicti on of future events or a guarantee of future results. This material should not be considered investment advice or a recommendati on to buy, hold, or sell any security.
42
Table of Contents ..............................................................................................................................................................................Page
Appendix: More Charts That Got Us ThinkingBuying stocks when fear runs high has historically led to long-term gains .................................................................................... 44
VIX and S&P 500 Index are negatively correlated ............................................................................................................................... 45
Intra-year dips in the S&P 500 Index happen frequently .................................................................................................................. 46
Are you an opportunistic or apprehensive investor? ......................................................................................................................... 47
The cyclical nature of active and passive investing ............................................................................................................................ 48
Are value stocks poised to outperform growth stocks after a long period of underperformance? ............................................ 49
Are international stocks poised to outperform US stocks after a long period of underperformance? ....................................... 50
Growth is gaining momentum outside the US .................................................................................................................................... 51
Stock market returns after signifi cant oil price declines .................................................................................................................... 52
Asset class returns vs. the average investor........................................................................................................................................ 53
Duration risk is rising: Are you prepared? .......................................................................................................................................... 54
Hypothetical impact of rising rates on fi xed income .......................................................................................................................... 55
Some asset classes have performed well in rising-rate periods ....................................................................................................... 56
US interest rates could continue to stay low ....................................................................................................................................... 57
US debt to GDP levels are approaching record highs ........................................................................................................................ 58
Annual infl ation is below its historical average but rising ................................................................................................................. 59
Tax-equivalent yields .............................................................................................................................................................................. 60
Municipal bond yields look attractive................................................................................................................................................... 61
Healthcare is trading at a discount to its historical average ............................................................................................................. 62
Fund fl ows ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
43
44
VIX levels below 20 refl ect complacency, while levels of 40 or higher refl ect extremely high levels of volati lity.Past performance does not guarantee future results. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment.Source: Morningstar, 1/18.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1/97 1/99 1/01 1/03 1/05 1/07 1/09 1/11 1/13 1/15 1/17 12/17
S&P
500
Inde
x (P
rice
Leve
l)
VIX
� VIX (Right-hand side)� S&P 500 Index (Left-hand side)
VIX Average:20.5
VIX and S&P 500 Index are negati vely correlatedThe VIX is currently near historical lows. As it rebounds, history suggests the S&P 500 Index could lose momentum.
45
46
47
While passive investments have performed well in recent years, acti ve large-blend funds outperformed their passive counterparts nine out of 10 ti mes from 2000 to 2009.
48
While growth stocks and value stocks historically alternate periods of outperformance, growth stocks have generally outperformed value stocks since January 2009.
49
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
’74 ’76 ’78 ’80 ’82 ’84 ’86 ’88 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’08 ’10 ’12 ’14 ’16 3/18
Rela
ti ve
Perf
orm
ance
(%)
US Outperformed
Internati onal Outperformed
7.1 years
Are internati onal stocks poised to outperform US stocks aft er a long period of underperformance?
US Equity vs. Internati onal Equity 5-Year Rolling Returns (1/1/1970-3/31/2018) The average performance cycle for US equiti es versus internati onal equiti es has historically lasted 7.2 years. US equiti es have outperformed internati onal equiti es over the past 7.1 years, indicati ng the cycle may be getti ng ready to turn.
US Equity is represented by S&P 500 Index. Internati onal Equity is represented by MSCI World ex USA Index. The chart shows the values of the S&P 500 Index’s returns minus the MSCI World ex USA Index’s returns. When the line is above 0, domesti c stocks out-performed internati onal stocks. When it is below 0, internati onal stocks outperformed domesti c stocks.Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The performance shown above is index performance and is not representati ve of any investment’s performance. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. For illustrati ve purposes only.Source: Morningstar, 4/18
50
Growth is gaining momentum outside the US Real GDP growth, annual percentage change, 2018
Gross Domesti c Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the fi nished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specifi c ti me period. Real GDP growth is a macroeconomic measure of the value of economic output adjusted for price changes (i.e., infl ati on or defl ati on).Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, 4/18
With buoyant fi nancial markets and a long-awaited cyclical recovery in manufacturing and trade under way, world growth is projected to rise, especially for developing economies.
51
52
According to a study by Dalbar, the average US equity investor has dramati cally underperformed the US equity market index by buying and selling at the wrong ti mes.
53
Eff ecti ve durati on is a measure of price sensiti vity to interest rate changes.Source: Barclays Live, 1/18. For illustrati ve purposes only.
3
4
5
6
7
Year
s
More sensitive to interest rates
March 2018: 6.1 years
Average: 4.8 years
Less sensitive to interest rates
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 3/2018
Durati on risk is rising: Are you prepared?Durati on of the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index In June of 2017,
the durati on of the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index exceeded six years for the fi rst ti me since 1978. Fixed-income investors should consider evaluati ng the durati on risk in their portf olios.
54
55
We examined 11 rising-rate periods since 2005 (defi ned as a spike of 20% or more in the yield of the 10-Year Treasury), and these asset classes performed the best.
56
It is not unprecedented for interest rates to stay low for long periods of ti me. There have been many ti mes throughout history when rates stayed below 3% for an extended period.
57
US debt to Gross Domesti c Product (GDP) levels in the US are approaching levels not seen since the 1940s. Some economists believe high levels of US debt to GDP could trigger high levels of infl ati on like it did in the 1940s.
58
At the end of 2017, the US infl ati on rate was 2.2%—signifi cantly higher than the 0.7% for year-end 2015 but sti ll below its long-term average of 3%. Investors concerned about rising infl ati on should consider the benefi ts of owning infl ati on hedges that can help off set the damaging eff ects of infl ati on.
59
60
61
In 2009 and early 2010, the health-care sector traded at near historical lows relati ve to the S&P 500 Index. Exciti ng drug pipelines and greater clarity about the shape of healthcare reform led to recovery. Aft er the recent selloff , the sector is once again trading at a discount.
62
63
Index Defi nitions:Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield Corporate Bond Index is an unmanaged broad-based market-value weighted index that tracks the total return performance of non-investment grade, fi xed-rate publicly placed, dollar-denominated and nonconvertible debt registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is composed of securities from the Barclays Government/Credit Bond Index, Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, Asset-Backed Securities Index, and Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Index.Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index is a market-weighted index of investment-grade corporate fi xed-rate debt issues with maturities of one year or more.Bloomberg Barclays US Long Treasury Index measures US dollar-denominated, fi xed-rate, nominal debt issued by the US Treasury. Treasury bills are excluded by the maturity con-straint, but are part of a separate Short Treasury Index. Bloomberg Barclays US MBS Fixed Rate Index measures the performance of investment grade fi xed-rate mortgage-backed pass-through securities of Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond 10-year Index is a sub-index of the Barclays Municipal Bond Index. It is a rules-based market value-weighted index of bonds with maturities of 10 years engineered for the tax-exempt bond market.Bloomberg Barclays US FRN (BBB) is a subset of the US Floating-Rate Note (FRN) Index, which measures the performance of USD denominated, investment-grade, fl oating-rate notes across corporate and government-related sector.Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Convertibles Composite includes all four major classes of USD equity-linked securities including: convertible cash coupon bonds, zero-coupon bonds, pre-ferred convertibles with fi xed par amounts and mandatory equity-linked securities.Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Fixed-Rate Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) Index covers fi xed-rate ABS with the following collateral types: credit cards, autos, home equity loans and stranded-cost utility (rate reduction bonds).Bloomberg Barclays U.S. CMBS Index measures the market of conduit and fusion Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities deals with a minimum current deal size of $300 million.Core PCE price Index is the less volatile measure of the PCE price index which excludes the more volatile and seasonal food and energy prices.Credit Suisse (CS) Leveraged Loan Index is designed to mirror the investible universe of the United States dollar-denominated leveraged loan market. JP Morgan GBI Emerging Markets Global Diversifi ed Index is a comprehensive global, local emerging-markets index, and consists of liquid, fi xed-rate, domestic-currency govern-ment bonds.MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free fl oat-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of 21 emerging market country indices. MSCI Japan Index is a free-fl oat adjusted market-capitalization index designed to measure large- and mid-cap Japanese equity market performance.MSCI USA Materials Index is designed to capture the large and mid cap segments of the US equity universe. All securities in the index are classifi ed in the Materials sector as per the Global Industry Classifi cation Standard (GICS®). MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary Index is designed to capture the large and mid cap segments of the US equity universe.MSCI Europe Index is a free-fl oat adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the equity market performance of the developed markets in Europe: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.MSCI USA Financials Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the US equity universe. All securities in the index are classifi ed in the Financials sector in the Global Industry Classifi cation Standard (GICS®).MSCI USA Energy Index is designed to capture the large and mid cap segments of the US equity universe. All securities in the index are classifi ed in the Energy sector in the Global Industry Classifi cation Standard (GICS®); USD (trade weighted) is a proxy for the US dollar.MSCI USA Information Technology Index is designed to capture the large and mid cap segments of the US equity universe. All securities in the index are classifi ed in the Information Technology sector as per the Global Industry Classifi cation Standard (GICS®). MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the US market. With 627 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free fl oat-adjusted market capitalization in the US.MSCI World ex USA Index captures large and mid cap representation across developed market countries, excluding the US.S&P GSCI Commodity Index consists of 24 commodity futures on physical commodities across fi ve sectors: energy, agriculture, livestock, industrial metals, and precious metals.S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted price index composed of 500 widely held common stocks.S&P 500 Growth Index is a subset of the S&P 500 Index. It includes full market-capitalization weightings in the most growth-oriented third of the S&P 500 Index, and a half mar-ket-cap stake in the stocks within the S&P 500 Index that have both value and growth characteristics. S&P 500 Value Index is a subset of the S&P 500 Index. It includes full market-capitalization weightings in the most value-oriented third of the S&P 500 Index, and a halfmarket-cap stake in the stocks within the S&P 500 Index that have both value and growth characteristics. 64
Important Risks: Investi ng involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. • Foreign investments may be more volati le and less liquid than U.S. investments and are subject to the risk of currency fl uctuati ons and adverse politi cal and economic developments. These risks may be greater for investments in emerging markets. • Small- and mid-cap securiti es can have greater risk and volati lity than large-cap securiti es.
• Fixed income security risks include credit, liquidity, call, durati on, and interest-rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. • Investments in high-yield (“junk”) bonds involve greater risk of price volati lity, illiquidity, and default than higher-rated debt securiti es. • U.S. Treasury securiti es are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government as to the ti mely payment of principal and interest. • Municipal securiti es may be adversely impacted by state/local, politi cal, economic, or market conditi ons. Investors may be subject to the federal Alternati ve Minimum Tax as well as state and local income taxes. Capital gains, if any, are taxable. • Commoditi es may be more volati le than investments in traditi onal securiti es. • Bank loans can be diffi cult to value and highly illiquid; they are also subject to nonpayment, collateral, bankruptcy, default, extension, prepayment and insolvency risks. • The value of infl ati on-protected securiti es (IPS) generally fl uctuates with changes in real interest rates, and the market for IPSs may be less developed or liquid, and more volati le, than other securiti es markets. Diversifi cati on does not ensure a profi t or protect against a loss in a declining market.
The views expressed here are those of Nanett e Abuhoff Jacobson. They should not be construed as investment advice. They are based on available informati on and are subject to change without noti ce. Portf olio positi oning is at the discreti on of the individual portf olio man-agement teams; individual portf olio management teams and diff erent fund sub-advisers may hold diff erent views and may make diff erent investment decisions for diff erent clients or portf olios. This material and/or its contents are current as of the ti me of writi ng and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the express writt en consent of Wellington Management or Hartf ord Funds.
Investors should carefully consider a fund’s investment objecti ves, risks, charges and expenses. This and other important in-formati on is contained in a fund’s full prospectus and summary prospectus, which can be obtained by visiti ng hartf ordfunds.com. Please read it carefully before investi ng.
Mutual funds are distributed by Hartf ord Funds Distributors, LLC (HFD), Member FINRA. Advisory services are provided by Hartf ord Funds Management Company, LLC (HFMC). Certain funds are sub-advised by Wellington Management Company LLP or Schroder Investment Management North America Inc. Schroder Investment Management North America Ltd. serves as a secondary sub-adviser to certain funds. Hartf ord Funds refers to HFD and HFMC, which are not affi liated with any sub-adviser.
65
NAJ_FLP_0418 206352
At Hartford Funds, your investment satisfaction is our measure of success. That’s why we use an approach we call human-centric investing that considers not only how the economy and stock market impact your investments, but also how societal infl uences, generational diff erences, and your stage of life shape you as an investor.
Instead of cookie-cutter recommendations and generic goals, we think you deserve personalized advice from a fi nancial advisor who understands your fi nancial situation and can build a fi nancial plan tailored to your needs.
Delivering strong performance is always our top priority. But the numbers on the page are only half the story. The true test is whether or not an investment is performing to your expectations.
hartfordfunds.com 888-843-7824 @hartfordfunds hartfordfunds.com/linkedin
