2017 Urbanism Summit Thursday Keynote | Robin Chase - The Future of Transport
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Transcript of 2017 Urbanism Summit Thursday Keynote | Robin Chase - The Future of Transport
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@rmchase
FUTURE OF CITY TRANSPORT
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INFRASTRUCTURE IS
DESTINY
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Eisenhower Interstate Highway System 1956
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Levittown, NY 1947-1951
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TODAY: Avg 18% of household incomeParking challengingCongestion & Time wastingExcludes young/old/disabledPoor air qualityReduces city livability
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Clean
+Walking+Biking+Clean Fuel & Electric
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Clean Shared
Autonomous
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Technology has Transformed SharingGPS, Wireless Tech & Internet made CARSHARING possible
As easy to rent a car as use your own30 seconds to reserve/pay for a carSelf service pickup/dropoffReserved “homebase” parking space
1 shared car = 12 personal carsNeed less parkingPeople drive less (financially rational)
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Technology has Transformed SharingWith Smart phones, TRANSIT APPSmake it easy to know• Which train, bus• What time• Where to get on & where to get off
City Benefits:• More riders• Cheaper & better access• Less congestion
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Technology has Transformed SharingWith Smart phones & better AI, taxis can enable real RIDESHARING:• Origin-destination-timing matches
City Benefits:• Reduced congestion• Better access
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Clean Shared
Autonomous
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Sales Promised by 2018-2021
Old guard:∎ GM∎ Ford∎ Toyota∎ Nissan∎ Volvo∎ BMW∎ Audi∎ Volkswagen
New companies:∎ Google∎ Tesla∎ Uber∎ Apple∎ Many startups
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There’s an urgency to our mission about being part of the future. This is not a side project. This is existential for us.
UBER CEO Travis Kalanick on deploying Autonomous UBERs in Pittsburgh (August 2016)
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Every month in 2016 has been the hottest on record
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Credit: Randall Monroe
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The infrastructure we build over the next 3
years will determine
the fate of humanity.-Christiana Figueres
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Most important takeaway:
When you take the driver out of the car:
THE ECONOMIC THRESHHOLD
for moving a vehicle is low.
EXPLOSION OF VIABLE USES
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Where this explosion of trips happens matters
Exurban
Urban
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AV benefits are differentiated by
geography. AVsPersonal & Electric
Exurban
FAVESFleets of AVs that are Electric & Shared
Urban. Safety
benefits felt here. Fewer cars
(shared) & better air quality
(electric) key benefits here.
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We are getting a chance to DO OVER cities!
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Cheonggyecheon River in Seoul
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Cheonggyecheon River in Seoul
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Allocate to active modes?
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Suburban warehouse
Today’s Retail in Urban Areas
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RETAIL AUTOMATED TRIPS
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RATSFilling our streets
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RATS in cities BAD!
RATS in countryside: no problem!
RememberDENSITY MATTERSFor AV policy & benefits
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21.3% RED surface parking 3.7% YELLOW above-ground parking garages 2.6% GREEN park space 39.7% STREETS (including sidewalks)64.7% TOTAL for rights-of-way plus off-street parking
Houston, TX 2011
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HOW WE INTRODUCE MATTERS
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WRONG: We won’t get there by replacing buses with AV buses
Good for bus companyBad for passengers
This will NOT encourage the switch from personal cars to FAVES.
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A LIKELY SCENARIO: 5-year transition from CARS to FAVES
Year 1: 100 small vehicle pilot in mid-size city (students/tourists)
Years 2-5: Expands to 1000 vehicle fleet. Cheaper & more convenient than status quo. First 2nd vehicles sold. Then primary. On some routes, vehicles will become shuttle & bus size.
Years 3-5: Other cities need to adopt to be competitive/modern, innovative.
AVs for Urban & trucking Suburban & Rural?
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FAVES will be the fastest path
to electrification of passenger miles
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<-Continuuuuummmmm->
FUTURE: MULTIMODAL
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HOW WE TAX MATTERS
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Current Sources:Gas Taxes
Toll revenuesPermits & FeesTickets & Fines
Parking Registrations
Taxes for Motor vehicle manufacturing & use = $206 Billion/year* ($110b state & $96b in federal)
& 2nd order effectsLoss of taxes on associated labor & businesses now defunct
With electric AvsNoneFall by 60-90% (the higher end if we go to FAVES (reduced vehicles through tolls))
* http://www.autoalliance.org/files/dmfile/2015-Auto-Industry-Jobs-Report.pdfCenter for Automotive Research, Ann Arbor MI
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Taxing AVSGetting the incentives rightCertificates of Entitlement
Vehicles on purchase category• Fuel type• Weight• Square footage
Road user fees (based on category)• Distance• Congestion• ZERO OCCUPANCY PREMIUM
Retail• Pickup/Dropoff• VAT
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Taxing AVSMETAL BOXES ON DISCRETE STREETSGetting the USER FEES right
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Shared, Electric
LAND USE & URBAN PLANNINGPlanning & Criteria for New Space
TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE REVSNo gas tax, parking, tickets, 1/10th tollsNew: fuel type, weight, distance, congestion, occupancy
LABORRapid crash in sector jobs
Enable diversification today; plan for future
DATAOpen APIs, Privacy, Security
Transparency, Portability
ENERGYNew grid load must
be renewables
COMMUNITYDemand for FAVES vision
TRANSPORTw/out ownership,
integrated multimodal
To accomplish this big vision 10% OF CURRENT VEHICLES
We need to the involvement of many sectors
VICTIMSOrganize those
who have suffered
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Local city research
ACCESS DIVIDEND
How many jobs newly accessible? At higher wages?
LAND VALUE DIVIDEND
Inventory on-street & off-street parking. What new uses, criteria & priority? What new value?
LABOR DIVIDEND
How many jobs lost? How might they be redeployed for more community gain?
TAX DIVIDEND
How much transport & labor tax revenue lost? Get to redo with better incentives & amounts.
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NEW MOBILITY PROTOCOL FOR LIVABLE CITIES PHASED
1) Standard and pooled data for competitive & quality shared transport services
2) Zero emission fleets3) Congestion sticks (pricing) & carrots
(land use)4) AVs only in shared fleets
see osmosys.org
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A FUTURE PRIORITIZING PEOPLE
NOT CARS
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INFRASTRUCTURE IS
DESTINY
CLEANCONNECTEDEFFICIENTSHARED
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CLEANCONNECTEDEFFICIENTSHARED
INFRASTRUCTURE IS
DESTINYBUILDING THE WORLD WE WANT TO LIVE IN
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CLEANCONNECTEDEFFICIENTSHARED
INFRASTRUCTURE IS
DESTINYBUILDING THE WORLD WE WANT TO LIVE IN
CAN