Murders and Shootings

2017 Semi-Annual Trend Report

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MurdersIn the 1st half of 2017

• There were 96 murders between

January and June 2017

• Murders increased 43% (+29)

over the 1st half of 2016

• 62% of murders occurred in 3

NOPD Districts: the 1st, 5th, and

7th (16, 22, and 22 murders,

respectively)

2

Historical Murder TrendIn 2016, there were 174 murders; one more than the 2010-15 average (+5.8%)

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173174

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Murders in New Orleans: Historical Comparison

2010-15 Avg. 2016

Historical Murder Rate TrendIn 2016, the murder rate was 44.4 per 100,000, 2.5 fewer people per 100,000 compared to the 2010-15 average

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46.9

44.4

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New Orleans Murder Rate: Historical Comparison

2010-15 Avg. 2016

MurdersYTD

• Murders are 43% higher than 1st

half 2016

5

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Murders Citywide (96)

2010-16 Avg. 2016 2017

Murdersin Hot Spots

• “Hot spot” neighborhoods

include Behrman, Central City,

Little Woods, Seventh Ward, St.

Claude, St. Roch, and Treme

• Murders in Hot Spot

Neighborhoods account for

more than 30% of all murders in

New Orleans compared to 37%

in the first half of 2016

6

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Murders in Hot Spots (29)

2010-16 Avg. 2016 2017

Murdersby District

• The 2nd and 6th Districts

experienced a decline in murders

in 2017 compared to 2016

• The 1st District saw the highest

change over 2016 (+300%)

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th

Murders by District

2010-16 Avg. 2016 2017

MurdersRolling Average

• A rolling average smooths out

short-term fluctuations and

highlights longer-term trends

or cycles

• At the midpoint of 2017, there

was a six-month rolling

average of 16 murders per

month

• That was the highest rolling

average since October 2016

8

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Six Month Rolling Average (16.0)

Murders by Neighborhood

• The Seventh Ward and Mid

City both led all

neighborhoods in 1st half 2017

with 8 murders

• Four of the top seven

neightborhoods were Hot Spot

Neighborhoods (Seventh

Ward, St. Claude, Central City,

and St. Roch) with 23 murders

total

9

8

8

7

7

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Seventh Ward

Mid City

St. Claude

Plum Orchard

Viavant-Venetian Isles

Central City

St. Roch

Old Aurora

Gert Town

gentilly terrace

Dillard

Pines Village

Little Woods

Florida Area

Treme

Milan

Milneburg

St. Bernard

Desire Area

French Quarter

Top 20 Neighborhoods

Murders by Time of Day

• Consistent with the first two

quarters in 2016, the plurality

of murders occurred in the

evening

• With the exception of the 2nd

Quarter 2016, murders

consistently occurred less in

the morning than other times

of the day (about 13% of all

occurrences)

10

2016 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

Morning 13% 8% 12% 13%

Afternoon 30% 22% 13% 21%

Evening 40% 40% 40% 43%

Overnight 17% 30% 35% 23%

2017 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

Morning 6% 13%

Afternoon 33% 27%

Evening 45% 42%

Overnight 16% 18%

Morning: 6:00am - 11:59am

Afternoon: 12:00pm - 5:59pm

Evening: 6:00pm - 11:59pm

Overnight: 12:00am - 5:59am

Murders by Identified Motive

• There were 46 identified

motives in 2016 and 68 in

2017

• Murders motivated by

arguments and other

disturbances have increased

by more than 90% over the 1st

half of 2016

• Murders related to retaliations

and feuds have decreased by

44% compared to the 1st half

of 2016

• There has been an increase in

the total number of murders

related to drugs, robbery, and

other classifications

compared to midyear 2016

(+6, +3, and +4 respectively)

11

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Argument/Dist.

Domestic Dispute

Drug-Related

Retaliation-Feud

Robbery

Other

Murders by Identified Motive

2016 (46) 2017 (68)

Murder Clearances

• The mid-year 2017 clearance

rate was 53%

• The three year average

clearance rate at the mid-point

of each year was about 52%

• Murder clearance rate is

calculated by dividing the

number of murders cleared by

arrest, warrant, and exception

within a calendar year,

regardless of the year of

incident, by the total number

of murders that occurred

within that same calendar year

12

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2015

2016

2017

UCR Murder Clearance Rates by Year

Arrest Warrant Exception Unsolved

Murder Clearances by District

• Murder clearance rates vary by

NOPD Districts

• On average, about half of the

murders across Districts have

been cleared

• By midyear 2017, the 8th District

cleared 100% (2:2) of its

murders

• Murder clearance rates by

district examines murders

within the current year cleared

by arrest, warrant, and

exception

13

25%

42%

25% 50%

40%

67%

44%

100%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th

Murder Clearances by District

Cleared Open

Murder Suspectsby Race

• Over the past eight quarters,

at least 96% of arrested

murder suspects were

African-American

14

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Murder Suspects by Race (last eight quarters)

Black White Other

Murder Suspectsby Gender

• Over the past eight quarters,

about 1 out of 10 arrested

murder suspects were female

• All arrested murder suspects

in the 1st Quarter 2017 were

male

15

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Murder Suspects by Gender(last eight quarters)

Male Female

ShootingsIn the 1st half of 2017

• There were 282 non-fatal

shooting victims between

January and June 2017

• Non-fatal shootings increased

32% over the 1st half of 2016

• There was a total of 364

shooting victims (fatal and non-

fatal) in the 1st half of the year,

an increase of 46% over the 1st

half of 2016

16

Non-Fatal Shooting Victimsat Midyear

• There have been 56% more non-

fatal shooting victims in the 1st

half of 2017 compared to the 1st

half of 2016

17

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Non-Fatal Shooting Victims Citywide (282)

2010-16 Avg. 2016 2017

Non-Fatal Shooting Victimsin Hot Spots

• “Hot spot” neighborhoods

include Behrman, Central City,

Little Woods, Seventh Ward, St.

Claude, St. Roch, and Treme

• Non-fatal shooting victims in Hot

Spot Neighborhoods accounted

for about 48% of all non-fatal

shooting victims in New Orleans

in the 1st half of 2017 compared

to 41% in the 1st half of 2016

18

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Non-Fatal Shooting Victims in Hot Spots (135)

2010-16 Avg. 2016 2017

Non-Fatal Shooting Victimsby District

• The 2nd and 8th Districts

experienced a decline in non-

fatal shooting victims in the 1st

half of 2017 compared to the

same period in 2016

• The 7th District experienced the

largest increase of +56 over 1st

half 2016 (about +233%)

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th

Non-Fatal Shooting Victims by District

2010-15 Avg. 2016 2017

Non-Fatal Shootings VictimsRolling Average

• A rolling average smooths out

short-term fluctuations and

highlights longer-term trends

or cycles

• At the midpoint of 2017, there

was a six-month rolling

average of 47 non-fatal

shooting victims per month

• The six-month rolling average

has been at its highest point

since September 2014 for the

last seven months

20

0

5

10

15

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25

30

35

40

45

50

'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Six Month Rolling Average (47)

Non-Fatal Shooting Victims by Neighborhood

• Little Woods led all

neighborhoods in 1st half of

2017 with non-fatal shooting

victims

• Five of the top six

neightborhoods were Hot Spot

Neighborhoods (Seventh

Ward, Central City, Little

Woods, St. Roch, and Treme)

with 139 non-fatal-shooting

victims

21

37

31

27

25

19

19

18

14

13

12

11

9

9

9

8

7

7

7

7

7

Little Woods

Central City

Seventh Ward

St. Roch

Pines Village

St. Claude

Plum Orchard

Mid City

Tall Timbers-Brechtel

Treme

Behrman

Read Blvd. East

CBD

gentilly terrace

Dillard

Milneburg

Leonidas

Gert Town

West Lake Forest

Lower 9th Ward

Top 20 Neighborhoods

Non-Fatal Shooting Victims by Time of Day

• With the exception of the 1st

Quarter of 2016, the plurality

of non-fatal shooting victims

have been shot in the evening

22

2016 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

Morning 16% 19% 16% 4%

Afternoon 35% 5% 5% 28%

Evening 32% 54% 53% 48%

Overnight 18% 22% 26% 20%

2017 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

Morning 8% 8%

Afternoon 22% 24%

Evening 55% 48%

Overnight 14% 20%

Morning: 6:00am - 11:59am

Afternoon: 12:00pm - 5:59pm

Evening: 6:00pm - 11:59pm

Overnight: 12:00am - 5:59am

Non-Fatal Shooting Clearances by District

• Non-fatal shooting clearance

rates vary by NOPD District

• On average, about 1 out of 10

non-fatal shootings are

cleared across districts

• Zero non-fatal shootings were

cleared in the 8th District

• Non-fatal shooting clearance

rates by district examines

murders within the current

year cleared by arrest, warrant,

and exception

23

14%13%

13%7%

15%

3%

18%

0%0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th

Non-Fatal Shooting Clearances by District

Cleared Open

NOTE: UCR clearance data for non-fatal shootings (aggravated assault) was

not available at the time of this report publishing.

NOTE: Identified motive data for non-fatal shootings was not available at the

time of this report publishing due to changes to their identification

methodology and inconsistency of data reported.

Non-Fatal Shooting Suspectsby Race

• Over the past eight quarters,

almost 90% of arrested non-

fatal shooting suspects were

African-American

24

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Non-Fatal Shooting Suspects by Race (last eight quarters)

Black White Other

Non-Fatal shooting Suspectsby Gender

• Over the past eight quarters,

female non-fatal shooting

suspects only accounted for

about 6% of the total suspects

25

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017

Non-Fatal Shooting Suspects by Gender(last eight quarters)

Male Female

Contact InformationFor Additional Questions and Comments

For further information about future activities and reports, please contact:

Sarah Schirmer

Criminal Justice Policy Advisor

Office of Criminal Justice Coordination

Office of Mayor Mitch Landrieu

1300 Perdido St.

Suite 8W03

New Orleans, LA 70112

slschirmer@nola.gov

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