2017 HALF YEAR & OUTLOOK REPORT...titititi tititi tiﬁtititititi tititi ti titi tititititi...

2017 HALF YEAR& OUTLOOK REPORT

Mainstreaming Travel and Tourism in the South African Economy

“MAINSTREANING TRAVEL & TOURISM IN THE SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMY”

ABOUT TOURISM BUSINESS COUNCIL OF SOUTH AFRICA

AAA AAA AAAAAAA BAAAAAAA CAAAAAA AA AAAAA AAAAAA A“ABCAA”A AA A AAAAAA-AAAAAA AAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAA AA AAAAA AAA AAAAAA AAAAAA AA AAAAAA AA AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAA AAAAAfiA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAA AAAA AA AAA ABIA AAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAA AAA AAAA AA AAAAAA AAAA AAA AAAAAAAA AA AAAfiAA AAA AAAAAA AAAA AAA AAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAA AA AAAAAAAA-AAAAA AAAAAA AffAAAAA AAA AAAAAAA

ABOUT GRANT THORNTON SOUTH AFRICA

AAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAA AAAAAA AAA AAAAAAA AA AAAA AAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAA AA AAA AAAAAAA AA AAA AAAAAA AAAAAAA AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAA AAA AAA AAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAA AA AAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAA AAAAA AAAAAAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAAAA AAA AAAAAAA AqAAAA AAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAA IA AAAAAAAA AAAAAA AAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAA AAAAA AAAAAAAA AAA AAAAAAAAA AA AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AA AAAAAAAAAA AA AAA AAAAAAA

“MAINSTREANING TRAVEL & TOURISM IN THE SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMY”

ABOUT TOURISM BUSINESS COUNCIL OF SOUTH AFRICA

AAA AAA AAAAAAA BAAAAAAA CAAAAAA AA AAAAA AAAAAA A“ABCAA”A AA A AAAAAA-AAAAAA AAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAA AA AAAAA AAA AAAAAA AAAAAA AA AAAAAA AA AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAA AAAAAfiA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAA AAAA AA AAA ABIA AAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAA AAA AAAA AA AAAAAA AAAA AAA AAAAAAAA AA AAAfiAA AAA AAAAAA AAAA AAA AAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAA AA AAAAAAAA-AAAAA AAAAAA AffAAAAA AAA AAAAAAA

ABOUT GRANT THORNTON SOUTH AFRICA

AAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAA AAAAAA AAA AAAAAAA AA AAAA AAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAA AA AAA AAAAAAA AA AAA AAAAAA AAAAAAA AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAA AAA AAA AAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAA AA AAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAA AAAAA AAAAAAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAAAA AAA AAAAAAA AqAAAA AAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAA IA AAAAAAAA AAAAAA AAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAA AAAAA AAAAAAAA AAA AAAAAAAAA AA AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AA AAAAAAAAAA AA AAA AAAAAAA

From the desk of Grant Thornton – 2017 Outlook

From the desk of Grant Thornton – 2017 Outlook

GRANT THORNTON’S OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

Mtiti Gtitititititi Stititititititi, Dtititititi CEO & Ltititititi Atititititititi Stititititititi,

Gtitititi Ttititititititi Stitititi Aftitititi

TOUGH ROAD AHEADOtiti titititititi tititi tititititititi titititititi titi titititi titititi titititifiti tititititititi tititi titititi titi tititifi ti tititititi titititi titi Stitititi tifititititi’ti titititititititi titititititi – titititi titi titiqtititititi titi titititititititi tititititi-ti titititititititi tititi titititititititi tititititititititititi titi tititititi titi tititititititi titi titititititititi tititi tititititititi titi titititi titititititititititi titititi tititi titititititititi titititifititi titititititi tititi titititititifi tititi tititi titititititifiti fiti tititititifi titi fitititi tititititititi fititititifi fititi tititi titititititititi tititi tititititifi titititititi Ttiti titititititi titi ti wtitititi tititi tititititititi wtititi ti titititiwtiti tititititi tif tititititititi, tititi titi tititi titititi tititi tititititititititi tititi titititititi titititititi titi tititititititi titi titititititititi titititititititi titititititititititititi

titi titi titititi titititi tititi titititi tititi titititititi titi tititititi tititi titititititititititi titititititititi tititititititititititi titi titititititititi titititi titititi tititi tititititititi tititititititititititi titi titi tititititi tititititi titi titititititititi titititititititititi tititititititititititi titi tititititi titititi titititititi titititititititi titititititititititititi titi titi tititititi tititititi titi tititi titi titi tititititititititi titi titititititititi titititititi titi titititititititititititi titititi tititititi titi titititititititititi tititititi tititi titititititi titi tititi tititititititititititi tititititi tititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi tititititititititi tititititititi titititi tititititititi titi tititititititi titititi titi tititititi tititititititititi titititi tititi titititititititititititi

So, how are travel and tourism business expected to perform in the next six months of the year?

Wtititititi tititi tiutititititi tititi titititititi tititi titiutitititi butitititititi ptitititititititititi tititi tititi titixti titix titititititi titi tititi tititiy, titi titititititi titiptitititititi tititiutiti tititi titititi titititi titititititi tititi titiutitititi tititititititi tititi titi tititi tititi titititititititi tititititititi titititi tititititititi ptititititititi tititi tititititititi titititi tititi tititititititititi titi tititititititi tititi titititi ti titititi titifftititititititi

‘tiTtiti titititititititititi tititi titititititititi tititi titi tititititi tititi titi tititi tititi tititi titititititititi tititititititititi titititi tititi titi titititi tititititititititi titititititi ti titititititi titititititi titi titititititi tititititi titititititititi tititititititi tititititititititi tititi titi tititititititi titititititi tititi tititititititi titi ti titititi titititititi titi tititi tititititi tititititititi tititititititititi tititi titi ti titititi titi titititi titi tititititi titititititititi tititi tititi titititititititi tititi tititititititititi titititi tititi tititititititititi tititititititititi tititi titititititi titi titititititi tititi tititititititi titi tititititi tititititititititi

Wtititititi tititi tiutititititi tititi titititititi tititi titiutitititi butitititititi ptitititititititititi tititi tititi titixti titix titititititi titi tititi tititiy, titi titititititi titiptitititititi tititiutiti tititi titititi titititi titititititi tititi titiutitititi tititititititi tititi titi tititi tititi titititititititi tititititititi titititi tititititititi ptititititititi tititi tititititititi titititi tititi tititititititititi titi tititititititi tititi titititi ti titititi titifftititititititi

‘tiTtiti titititititititititi tititi titititititititi tititi titi tititititi tititi titi tititi tititi tititi titititititititi tititititititititi titititi tititi titi titititi tititititititititi titititititi ti titititititi titititititi titi titititititi tititititi titititititititi tititititititi tititititititititi tititi titi tititititititi titititititi tititi tititititititi titi ti titititi titititititi titi tititi tititititi tititititititi tititititititititi tititi titi ti titititi titi titititi titi tititititi titititititititi tititi tititi titititititititi tititi tititititititititi titititi tititi tititititititititi tititititititititi tititi titititititi titi titititititi tititi tititititititi titi tititititi tititititititititi

“Mainstreaming Travel and Tourism

in the South African Economy”

4 | 2017 HALF YEAR REVIEW AND OUTLOOK REPORT

TBCSA Tourism Business Index2. The Tourism Business Index2.1 The Consolidated Index

• O??????, ??? ??????? I??????? ??????????? ??w?? ???? ?????? ???????? ??????????? ????????? ?? ????? ?? 82,7?

• A????????? ???????? ??????????? ??? ??? ???? 6 ?????? ?? ???????? ???? ???? ??????? ??????????? ?? 80,4? ???? ???w? ?? ?????????? w???? ?? ?? ??? ??????? ??? ?????????? ???? ?? ??? ?????????? ?????? ????? ?? w???? ???? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????? ???????

What is Normal?

??? ???????? ??????? ?? ???????? ??????? ?? ?????? ??? ???????????? ??? ????????? ??????? ?? ??? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???????? ??? ??? ????????? ???????

N????? ?? ?????? ?? “??? ????? ?? ?????????? ????????? ??????????? ?? ???? w??? ??? ???????? ???? ???? ??????? ??????????? ??? w???? ???? ?? ???????, ?? ??? ???? ???? ??????? ?????????? ???????????? ???????????, ?????? ???? q??????, ???? ??k??? ???????? ????????? ???? ???????”? N????? ?? ???? ?????????? ?? ?? ????? ?? 100? W??? ??? ????? ???w? P?????????? ?? P???????? ?? ?????? ???? 100, ???? ????????? ??tt?? ???? ?????? ???????????, w???? ????w 100 ????????? w???? ???? ?????? ?????????????

I? ??? ???????? ???????? ???????? ? ???????????? ??tt?? ???? ?????? ??????????? ?????? ??? ??????????? ???????, ??? ????? ????? ???????? ? ???????? ???? ?? 200, w???? ???????????? ???? ???????????? ??? ??? ?????????? w???? ?????? ?? ?? ????? ?? 0?


TBCSA Tourism Business Index2. The Tourism Business Index2.1 The Consolidated Index

• O??????, ??? ??????? I??????? ??????????? ??w?? ???? ?????? ???????? ??????????? ????????? ?? ????? ?? 82,7?

• A????????? ???????? ??????????? ??? ??? ???? 6 ?????? ?? ???????? ???? ???? ??????? ??????????? ?? 80,4? ???? ???w? ?? ?????????? w???? ?? ?? ??? ??????? ??? ?????????? ???? ?? ??? ?????????? ?????? ????? ?? w???? ???? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????? ???????

What is Normal?

??? ???????? ??????? ?? ???????? ??????? ?? ?????? ??? ???????????? ??? ????????? ??????? ?? ??? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???????? ??? ??? ????????? ???????

N????? ?? ?????? ?? “??? ????? ?? ?????????? ????????? ??????????? ?? ???? w??? ??? ???????? ???? ???? ??????? ??????????? ??? w???? ???? ?? ???????, ?? ??? ???? ???? ??????? ?????????? ???????????? ???????????, ?????? ???? q??????, ???? ??k??? ???????? ????????? ???? ???????”? N????? ?? ???? ?????????? ?? ?? ????? ?? 100? W??? ??? ????? ???w? P?????????? ?? P???????? ?? ?????? ???? 100, ???? ????????? ??tt?? ???? ?????? ???????????, w???? ????w 100 ????????? w???? ???? ?????? ?????????????

I? ??? ???????? ???????? ???????? ? ???????????? ??tt?? ???? ?????? ??????????? ?????? ??? ??????????? ???????, ??? ????? ????? ???????? ? ???????? ???? ?? 200, w???? ???????????? ???? ???????????? ??? ??? ?????????? w???? ?????? ?? ?? ????? ?? 0?

2017 HALF YEAR REVtiEW AND OUTLOOK REPORT | 5

2.2 Thti Acctimmtitiatititi tititititi

• •••••••• ••••••••••• ••• ••• fi••• ••fi• •• fifififi ••fl•••• •••••fi ••••••••••• fl•fifi fl•fi•fl •••••fi fi•fl•fi• ••fl •• ••flfifl fi•fl•• •••• •fl•••••fl •• fiflflfi •••••••fl •• •• ••ti••••••fl tiflfltiti• ••• •••••••fl•ti•• ti••••• ••••••••• •••• fl••••••• ••••••••••• ••• ••• ••fl• ••fi• •• ••• fl••• fl•fifi ••fl••• ••••••• •• fi•fl•• fi•fl•fi• fl••• • ••ti••fi••••fifl fl•••• •••• •••••fi ••••••••••• ••ti••••••fl •• titiflfiti •••• •• ••• fl•••• ••ti••••••fl ••••••••••• ••fl•fl •• ••• •••••••fl•ti•• ti••••• ••••• ••• ••ti ••••••••fl •• fifififi ••fl ••fl•••••• • ••ti•fifl ••••••••ti• •••fi••ti ti•••ti •••fl••flti ti••• ••••ti••••flfl •••ti•••ti•••fl ti•••fi ti••••• ••fl ti•fl• •••fl• •••fl••• ti•••fi• •fifi •fl•••• fi•fl fl••••••• ••••••••••• ••• ••• •••••fl ••fi• •• ••• fl•••ti

Acctimmtitiatititi tititititi

••Cti• ••URtitiM •UtitiNEtiti tiNDEX

2.3 Othtir Ttiurism Busititisstis Sub-tititititi

• ••••• ••••••• •••••••••• •••••fl•fl fl•••• •••• •••••fi fl••••••• •••••••••••fl •• ti•fl•fl fl•••• •• fi•fl•• •••• ••• fi•fl•fi •••• fl•• •fl•••••fl •• fifififlfi ••• •fi fifififiti • • •••••••• ••fl•fl •• flfifl• •• ••ti••••••fl ••• ••• ••fl• ••fi• •• fifififi ••fl••ti•ti • •fi•ti••fifl •••• ••ti•••ti• •••fi••ti •••• ••••• ••••••• •••••••••• ••• fl•tt•• fl••••••• ••••••••••• •••• •• ••• fi••• ••fi• •• ••• fl•••ti

2017 HALF YEAR REVIEW AND OUTLOOK REPORT | 7

3. Balantie Statititititi

tiBCtiti tiOURItiM BUtiINEtiti INDEX

Wtititi tititititititi titi titititititititi tititititititititititi tititi titititi tititititi tititi titititititititititititi titititititi tititititititi ti tititititititititititititititititi tititititititi titititi ti tititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi tititititititi titititi tititititi titi tititititititititititi titititititititititi titititititititi tititititititititititi titititi tititi tititititi titititititi tititi titititi tititititi titititi titi ti titititititititi titititi fitititi titititi titi tititi titititi fififi fifitififi tititititi ti tititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi tififitititi tititi tititititititititi tititititititititititititi titititi titi titititititititititititi fitifitifi tititititititititi titititititititi tititititititititititi titi titititititi tititi tititititi titititi titititi titifiti titi tititititititititititi titititititi titititititititi tititititititititititi titi titititititititi

Iti ti tititititititi titititititititi Otitititi tititititititi Btititititititititi titititi ti tititititititi titititititi tititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi titititifiti titititi tifitifiti titi tititititititititititi titititititititi tititititi titititi titititititi titititititititi titititititititititititi tititifiti titititititititi tititttiti titititi titititititi titititititititi tititititititititititi tititi tifiti titi tititititititititititi titititititititi titititititi titititititititi titititititititititititi tititi titititifiti tititititititi titi tititititititi tititititi titititi fifi fifitifi fititititititifiti titi titititi titititititititititi titi tititititititititititi tititi titititititi tititi tititititititi titi titititititititititi

Rtitititititi titititi titititititititititi titititititititi tititi titititititititi titi tititi titititi titi ti tititititititititi titititititititi titititi titi tititi titifftitititititi tititititititi tititi tititititititititititi titi tititititititi tititi tititititititi titititititititititi ti tititititititi tititi titititi tititititititi titi titititititititititi titi titititititititi tititi titititititititititi titi tititititititi tititititititi titititi tititi tititititititititititi titi tititititititi tititititititi tititititi titi titititi tititititititititi tititi fitititi titititi tititi fitititi tititititi titi ti titititititi fitititititi titititi ti tititititi tititititititititititi titi tititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi tititititititititititi tititi ti tititititititi fititititi titi tititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi titititititititititititi

The Balantie Statitititi3.1 Performantie for the Next Year


Summary of the Next Year Balantie Statitititi

titiCtiti titiURtitiM tiUtitiNEtiti tiNDEX

-31.3% -15.2%1tit Half2017

Wtititi tititiktititi titi titititititititititi titititititi tititititititi tititi titititititik tititititititi titititititititi titititititititi titi tititi titititititititititititi titititititi tititi tititi titititi titititi titi tititi tititititi ti tititititititititi tititititititi titititititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi tititititi tititi titititititititi titititi tititititi titi tititititititititititi titititititititi titititititititititi titititititi titi titititititi tititi tititititi tititititi tititititititi titititititititititi titititititititi ti tititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi titititititi titititi tititi titititititititi titi titititititititi titititititititititi titititititi tititi tititititi titi titititititititititititi titititititi titititititititititi titititititi titi titititititi titititititititititi

3.2 Employment Levelti Next Half of the Year


Summary of the Next Year Balantie Statitititi

titiCtiti titiURtitiM tiUtitiNEtiti tiNDEX

-31.3% -15.2%1tit Half2017

Wtititi tititiktititi titi titititititititititi titititititi tititititititi tititi titititititik tititititititi titititititititi titititititititi titi tititi titititititititititititi titititititi tititi tititi titititi titititi titi tititi tititititi ti tititititititititi tititititititi titititititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi tititititi tititi titititititititi titititi tititititi titi tititititititititititi titititititititi titititititititititi titititititi titi titititititi tititi tititititi tititititi tititititititi titititititititititi titititititititi ti tititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi titititititi titititi tititi titititititititi titi titititititititi titititititititititi titititititi tititi tititititi titi titititititititititititi titititititi titititititititititi titititititi titi titititititi titititititititititi

3.2 Employment Levelti Next Half of the Year


Stimmtitiy tif tihti Emptitiymtinti Btititintiti Stitititititi titititititititititi tititititititi

TBCSA TOURISM BUSINESS INDEX

1st Half +1.1% +11.1%2017

Accommodation

Sector

Other Sector

2011

1st Quarter -23.7% -28.9% 2nd Quarter -25.3% -12.3% 3rd Quarter -17.4% +1.8% 4th Quarter -15.4% +1.6%

2012

1st Quarter -17.3% -3.0% 2nd Quarter -3.9% +7.4% 3rd Quarter + 6.4% -0.6% 4th Quarter +5.3% -8.3%

2013

1st Quarter +0.9% +12.5% 2nd Quarter -0.2% 0.0% 3rd Quarter +8.7% +10.9% 4th Quarter -19.4% +8.8%

2014

1st Quarter -49.7% +12.1% 2nd Quarter +2.8% +8.6% 3rd Quarter -4.5% +15.3% 4th Quarter +35,3% +7.5%

2015

1st Quarter -1.8% -4.1% 2nd Quarter -3.6% -21.5% 3rd Quarter +10.5% -4.8% 4th Quarter +28.0% +18,4%

2016

1st Quarter -1.1% +22.7% 2nd Quarter -0.7% +13.5% 3rd Quarter +1.1% +3.2% 4th Quarter +0.3% +2.8%

2017 1st Half +1.1% +11.1%


titiCtiti titiURItiM tiUtiINEtiti INDEX

3.3 Capacity Grtiwth Expectatitititititititi tititititititi titi titititititititi tititititititititi tititi tititi titititi titititi titi tititi tititititi titititi tititi titititititititititititi titititititi tititi tititititi tititititititi titititititititititi titititititititi ti tititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi tititititi tititi titititititi titititititititititititi tititi titititititititi titi tititi tititititititititititi titititititi titititititititi titi titititititi tititi titititi titititi tititititi titi tititititititititititi titi tititi titititititititititititi titititititi tititi tititititi titi tititititititititititi titi tititititi tititititititi titititititititititi titititititi titititititititi titi titititititi tititi titititi titi tititi titititi titititi titi tititi tititititi

Stimmtitiy tif tihti Ctiptitititiy Gtitiwtih Btititintiti Stitititititi titititititititititi tititititititi

2017 +5.1% +12.5% 1 tititif titi


titiCtiti titiURItiM tiUtiINEtiti INDEX

3.3 Capacity Grtiwth Expectatitititititititi tititititititi titi titititititititi tititititititititi tititi tititi titititi titititi titi tititi tititititi titititi tititi titititititititititititi titititititi tititi tititititi tititititititi titititititititititi titititititititi ti tititititititi tititititititi tititititititi titi tititititi tititi titititititi titititititititititititi tititi titititititititi titi tititi tititititititititititi titititititi titititititititi titi titititititi tititi titititi titititi tititititi titi tititititititititititi titi tititi titititititititititititi titititititi tititi tititititi titi tititititititititititi titi tititititi tititititititi titititititititititi titititititi titititititititi titi titititititi tititi titititi titi tititi titititi titititi titi tititi tititititi

Stimmtitiy tif tihti Ctiptitititiy Gtitiwtih Btititintiti Stitititititi titititititititititi tititititititi

2017 +5.1% +12.5% 1 tititif titi

20ti7 tiALti tiEAR REVIEW AtiD OUTLOOK REPORT | 11

tititititi ti•URtitiM tiUtitiNEtiti tiNDEX

• ••••• ••••• ••••titi• •ti••••tititi•• ti•••ti•ti •••titi••ti

ti•• •titi••ti•• •• ••• ••ti•titititi titi•ti•ti•• •tititi•tititi• ••• ••••••ti• •• titititititi ti•titi ti••ti•ti •ti••titi•ti•ti•••titi ti•••••ti• •• ••••ti ••• ••ti•titi ••• titi•ti•ti•• ti•••• ••ti••••titi•ti

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titi titifftitititi Afffffftititi tititititifftiti tititititititititi

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tititi tifftitititiff titifftitititi ti tititititi titititi titi titiff tifftiti

• ti•titiffi••••• titi••ti••ti ti••titi•• ••ti•••• ••titiffi••••• •titi•titi• tititi•••titi ••ti••• ••• ••••••ti•ti •• •tititi•tititi• titititititi ti••• ••• ••••••ti• ••••titi• •ti••••tititi•• ti•••ti•ti •ti tititi•••titi ti••titi•ti•••• titi• ••• ti••titititi••titi• ti•• ti•••ti•• ti••• fifiti titi ••tititi•••••ti ••••••ti•• •••ti• ••••titi• ti•••ti•ti• titititititi•• titi ••titiffi••••• •titi•titi• ti••titi•• ••ti••• tififititifi

12


4. egative actors – ext alf of the ear

• For the Accommodation Sector the cost of inputs (47%) is expected to become the main negative contrib uting factor affecting business performance for the next half of the year. Followed by the cost of labour (35%) and insufficient domestic business demand (27%).

• Similar negative contributing factors are expected for the next half of the year with the inclusion of the following:

Continued political instability; and Continued political instability; and Popularity of AirBnB establishments.

Very specific comments included damage done by Knysna fires and length of time to rebuild accommodation establishments.

12


4. egative actors – ext alf of the ear

• For the Accommodation Sector the cost of inputs (47%) is expected to become the main negative contrib uting factor affecting business performance for the next half of the year. Followed by the cost of labour (35%) and insufficient domestic business demand (27%).

• Similar negative contributing factors are expected for the next half of the year with the inclusion of the following:

Continued political instability; and Continued political instability; and Popularity of AirBnB establishments.

Very specific comments included damage done by Knysna fires and length of time to rebuild accommodation establishments.

2017 HALF YEAR REVIEW AND OUTLOOK REPORT 13


• For Other Tourism Businesses, 56% of respondents expect that insufficient overseas leisure demand will be a negative contributing factor to business performance for the next half of the year. Followed by insufficient domestic leisure demand (54%) and the cost of inputs (48%).


2017 tiALti tiEAR REVIEW AtiD OUTLOOK REPORT | 15

titiCti• titiU•fftiti tiUtiffNEtiti ffNDEX

4.4 Ptitiitititi tititititititi ti titititi titititi titi tititi titititi

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• ••••ti•••ti ••••ti•• ••••••tititi•• ti•••••• ••••• •••titi••ti ti•• •••ti••ti•• •• •••••••••• •ff••••titi•ff ff••••••• •• ••ti••ti• ti•••ti•• ••ti•••ff ••• ti••• ••ti••• ••••ti•• •••ti•••••• ••• •••••• •• ••• ••••••ti

V••ti •••••fi• ••titi•••• •••titi•• ••• •••••ti•• •ti •ti••titi •ti• •• fi•ti••• fi•••ti















• For Other Tourism Businesses, 56% of respondents expect that insufficient overseas leisure demand will be a negative contributing factor to business performance for the next half of the year. Followed by insufficient domestic leisure demand (54%) and the cost of inputs (48%).


16 | 2017 HALF YEAR REVIEW AND OUTLOOK REPORT 2017 HALF YEAR REVIEW AND OUTLOOK REPORT 17

6. General Business Indicators

sss sssssssss ssss ssssss ssss sss sss ssssss ss ssssssss ssssssss (“RMB/BER”) ssssssss )ss)sssss )sss) (“RMB/BER”) ss sss)s ss sss ss)ss )sss))

Source: BER

RR sssssssss ssssss ssRsss ss sss)sssss) RRss sssssssss ss ssssssss )ss)sssss ss sss Rss Rssssss RRRRR sss sssRsss )ss)sssss )sss) ssss ss RR Rsssss ss sss Rss Rssssss ss RRRR) ssssssssss sss sRss ssssssRsR )ssss ssss ssssss Rssssssssss) sss ss) sssssssss s sssssss sssssss ss )sssssss RssssssssssR ssssssRs sss Rssss ss ssRsssR )ssss sss ssRssss sss ss)ss)ssR ss sss sssssss) sss Rssss Rssssss Rssss Rssssss )sss)ss ss )sssssss sss )sssssss (“RR)))”) ssssssss )ss)sssss )sss) (“s))”) ss s sss-Rsssss sssssssssR ss sRRsss ss s ssssssss sssRss) sss s)) ss s ssssss-sssssss ssss) ssss ssRssss sss )sss )sss-ssss ss sssssRR )ss )sss ss ss ssssR sss s)RssssssssR) )s ss sssssssss sss ss sRsssssRRssssRRss-)ssss ssss)) sRss ssssRs sss s)) ss sss s ssssssss sssRss ssss sss ss)R ss ss sssssss ssRssss sss Rsssss sssssssss ss sss-sssss ssRRsss ss )ssss sss ss) sss )s sssRssss)

sss ssss) ss )ssss ss sss sRsssRs ssssssss ssRRsss sss RRRR )sssR s )sss ss RRR)

sss RR))) s)) sss)s s sssRss sssssss ss sss Rssssssss sRsssRs (ssss RRRR ss R4R3) ss sR RRRRR )ssss sRsss ss-Rssss ss) )sssssss Rssssssssss ssRsssR ssssssRs sss sss)ssR sss ssRss ss sssssss ssss sss sss sss ss) sss ss-ssssRsR

2017 40 29

ss)RR sOUs)Rs sUR)NsRR )NDsX


6. General Business Indicators

sss sssssssss ssss ssssss ssss sss sss ssssss ss ssssssss ssssssss (“RMB/BER”) ssssssss )ss)sssss )sss) (“RMB/BER”) ss sss)s ss sss ss)ss )sss))

Source: BER

RR sssssssss ssssss ssRsss ss sss)sssss) RRss sssssssss ss ssssssss )ss)sssss ss sss Rss Rssssss RRRRR sss sssRsss )ss)sssss )sss) ssss ss RR Rsssss ss sss Rss Rssssss ss RRRR) ssssssssss sss sRss ssssssRsR )ssss ssss ssssss Rssssssssss) sss ss) sssssssss s sssssss sssssss ss )sssssss RssssssssssR ssssssRs sss Rssss ss ssRsssR )ssss sss ssRssss sss ss)ss)ssR ss sss sssssss) sss Rssss Rssssss Rssss Rssssss )sss)ss ss )sssssss sss )sssssss (“RR)))”) ssssssss )ss)sssss )sss) (“s))”) ss s sss-Rsssss sssssssssR ss sRRsss ss s ssssssss sssRss) sss s)) ss s ssssss-sssssss ssss) ssss ssRssss sss )sss )sss-ssss ss sssssRR )ss )sss ss ss ssssR sss s)RssssssssR) )s ss sssssssss sss ss sRsssssRRssssRRss-)ssss ssss)) sRss ssssRs sss s)) ss sss s ssssssss sssRss ssss sss ss)R ss ss sssssss ssRssss sss Rsssss sssssssss ss sss-sssss ssRRsss ss )ssss sss ss) sss )s sssRssss)

sss ssss) ss )ssss ss sss sRsssRs ssssssss ssRRsss sss RRRR )sssR s )sss ss RRR)

sss RR))) s)) sss)s s sssRss sssssss ss sss Rssssssss sRsssRs (ssss RRRR ss R4R3) ss sR RRRRR )ssss sRsss ss-Rssss ss) )sssssss Rssssssssss ssRsssR ssssssRs sss sss)ssR sss ssRss ss sssssss ssss sss sss sss ss) sss ss-ssssRsR

2017 40 29

ss)RR sOUs)Rs sUR)NsRR )NDsX







18 2017 HALF YEAR REVIEW AND OUTLOOK REPORT


Grant Thornton globally produces a quarterly International Business Report (IBR) into perceptions and views of over 9600 C-Suite executives in privately-held and listed businesses, across more than 36 economies including South Africa. The graph below shows the balance statistic for expectations on the relevant countries’ econo-mies for the next 12 months.

South Africa recorded the lowest levels globally at -28% compared to the rest of the world and the other 35 countries surveyed.

This corroborates with the TBI one year outlook, being on balance negative -31% for accommodation and -15% for other tourism businesses and indicates the significantly high levels of economic uncertainty prevalent in South Africa today.

97.7 95.5 93.8 94.9 93.2 94.9

95.7 94.3

18 2017 HALF YEAR REVIEW AND OUTLOOK REPORT


Grant Thornton globally produces a quarterly International Business Report (IBR) into perceptions and views of over 9600 C-Suite executives in privately-held and listed businesses, across more than 36 economies including South Africa. The graph below shows the balance statistic for expectations on the relevant countries’ econo-mies for the next 12 months.

South Africa recorded the lowest levels globally at -28% compared to the rest of the world and the other 35 countries surveyed.

This corroborates with the TBI one year outlook, being on balance negative -31% for accommodation and -15% for other tourism businesses and indicates the significantly high levels of economic uncertainty prevalent in South Africa today.

97.7 95.5 93.8 94.9 93.2 94.9

95.7 94.3

2017 HALF YEAR REVIEW AND OUTLOOK REPORT


The IBR data for Q2 2017 also looks at the top three constraints to business growth, and for South African executives these are economic uncertainty; exchange rate fluctuation; and over-regulation / red tape. The figure below indicates the South African percentage of respondents citing these factors as one of their top three constraints compared to the global average. Exchange rate fluctuation, which is particularly problematic for tourism businesses engaged with the international market, as well as economic uncertainty, are significant impediments to far more executives in South Africa than the average globally.

The Tourism Business Index somehow correlates with the arrival statistics as collected by Statistics South Africa. The statistics show a significant drop in overseas and SADC arrivals, as depicted in the graphs below.

How optimistic are you for the outlook of your country’s economy over the next 2 months?

Economicuncertainty

34% 66%Exchange ratefluctuation

% 50%Regualation/red tape

2 % 30%

Global South Africa

nnnnn nnUnnnn nUnnNnnn nNDnX

7. Conclusion

nnnnnnnn nnnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnn nnn nnn nnnn n nnnnnn nnn nnnnn nnnn nnnnnn nnnn nn nnnnn nn nnnnn nnnn nn nn nnnn nnnn nnnnn nnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnn nnnnn nnnnnnnnnnn n nnnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnnnnnn nnnn nnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnn nnn nnnn nnnnn nnnnnn nnnnnn nnnn nn nnnnn nn nnnn nnnnn nnn nnnnn nnnn nnn nnnn nnnnn nnnnnnnn nn nnnnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnn nnnn nnn nnnn n nnnnnnn

Gnnnn nnnnnnnn nnnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnnn nnnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnn nnn nnn nnnn n nnnnnn nn nnnnnn nnnnn nnnn nnnnnn nnnn nn nnnnnnnnnn nnnnn nn nnnn nnnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnn nnn nnn4 nnnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnn nnnnnnn nnn nnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnn nn nnnnnnn nnnn nnnnnnnnnn nnnnn nnnnnnnn nnnnn nnnnn nn nttnnnnnnn nn nnnnffinnnnn nnnnnnnn nnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnn nnnnnn nnnnnnnnnn nnn nnn nnnnnnnnn nnnn nn nnn nnnnn

nnnnn nnUnnnn nUnnNnnn nNDnX

7. Conclusion

nnnnnnnn nnnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnn nnn nnn nnnn n nnnnnn nnn nnnnn nnnn nnnnnn nnnn nn nnnnn nn nnnnn nnnn nn nn nnnn nnnn nnnnn nnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnn nnnnn nnnnnnnnnnn n nnnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnnnnnn nnnn nnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnn nnn nnnn nnnnn nnnnnn nnnnnn nnnn nn nnnnn nn nnnn nnnnn nnn nnnnn nnnn nnn nnnn nnnnn nnnnnnnn nn nnnnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnn nnnn nnn nnnn n nnnnnnn

Gnnnn nnnnnnnn nnnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnnn nnnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnn nnn nnn nnnn n nnnnnn nn nnnnnn nnnnn nnnn nnnnnn nnnn nn nnnnnnnnnn nnnnn nn nnnn nnnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnn nnn nnn4 nnnnnnnn nn nnn nnnnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnn nnnnnnn nnn nnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnn nn nnnnnnn nnnn nnnnnnnnnn nnnnn nnnnnnnn nnnnn nnnnn nn nttnnnnnnn nn nnnnffinnnnn nnnnnnnn nnn nnnnnnn nnnnnnn nnnnnn nnnnnnnnnn nnn nnn nnnnnnnnn nnnn nn nnn nnnnn

TTTTT TOURTTM TUTTNETT TNDEX

TBCSA Tourism Business Index

ABOUT

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“Mainstreaming Travel and Tourism in the South African Economy”

TBCSA Tourism Business Index

What is a Business Index?

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TRAVEL & TOURISM TRADEASSOCIATIONS AFFILIATED TO TBCSA

TRAVEL & TOURISM TRADEASSOCIATIONS AFFILIATED TO TBCSA

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With thanks to Grant Thornton South Africa

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